Tuesday 10-15-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Brown

Tony’s *5 Star NHL Free Pick

Arizona vs. Winnipeg, 10/15/2019 20:00 EDT

Money Line: +118 Arizona

Sportsbook:
Betonline

Fp: can’t win if you can’t score and Arizona can’t score putting up just 7 goals after 4 games resulting in a 1-3 record . Games not played on paper but some stats can’t be ignored making the Jets my nhl free pick .

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Damian Sosh

NHL WINNER

Philadelphia vs. Calgary, 10/15/2019 21:00 EDT

Money Line: +130 Philadelphia

Sportsbook:
TopBet

Take the Flyers

The Flames have 5 points in 6 games. It makes one wonder if they are having lingering effects of their early season exit from the play offs last year when so much was expected from them. That is a possibility but a better reason is their play in goal. Flames management decided that Mike Smith was not their #1 goalie anymore and opted for David Rittich. Smith ends up in Edmonton and the Oilers are 5-0 while Rittich has been unimpressive while his GAA is 3.15. The Flyers meanwhile in just 3 games have won 2 and have an OT loss. They are really responding to new head coach Alain Vigneault. The power play is clicking for Philadelphia and the play in goal has been excellent. Take the Flyers and the plus money.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

911HOUSTON -912 NY YANKEES
NY YANKEES are 22-5 SU (19.5 Units) vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season in the current season.

913ST LOUIS -914 WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 16-3 SU (14.8 Units) vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Tuesday, October 15

St. Louis @ Washington

Game 913-914
October 15, 2019 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
(Hudson) 16.827
Washington
(Corbin) 19.863
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 3
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
-155
8
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-155); Under

Houston @ NY Yankees

Game 911-912
October 15, 2019 @ 4:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(Cole) 17.265
NY Yankees
(Severino) 15.672
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-160
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-160); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 15

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (111 - 58) at NY YANKEES (107 - 60) - 4:08 PM
GERRIT COLE (R) vs. LUIS SEVERINO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 45-36 (-15.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
HOUSTON is 71-47 (-10.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
HOUSTON is 92-74 (-20.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 107-60 (+17.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY YANKEES are 59-24 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
NY YANKEES are 42-12 (+18.8 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season.
NY YANKEES are 22-3 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss this season.
NY YANKEES are 49-28 (+20.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 73-32 (+25.6 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 3 seasons.
COLE is 29-9 (+16.0 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 5-4 (+0.5 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.4 Units)

GERRIT COLE vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
COLE is 1-0 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.15 and a WHIP of 1.231.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)

LUIS SEVERINO vs. HOUSTON since 1997
SEVERINO is 2-2 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 4.18 and a WHIP of 1.268.
His team's record is 3-3 (-0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-2. (+1.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST LOUIS (94 - 76) at WASHINGTON (100 - 71) - 8:05 PM
DAKOTA HUDSON (R) vs. PAT CORBIN (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 5-5 (+0.9 Units) against WASHINGTON this season
7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+4.6 Units)

DAKOTA HUDSON vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
HUDSON is 1-1 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 2.08 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.4 units)

PAT CORBIN vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
CORBIN is 2-2 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 4.17 and a WHIP of 1.439.
His team's record is 2-5 (-4.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-5. (-4.6 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Tuesday, October 15

American League
Astros @ New York (1-1)
Cole is 6-0, 1.09 in his last seven starts; he is 1-0, 4.15 in two starts vs NYY, and is 4-3, 2.62 in seven playoff starts. Cole’s last loss was 24 starts ago, on May 22.

Severino is 1-1, 1.13 in four starts this year (16 IP); he is 2-1, 3.86 in five games (4 starts) vs Houston, and is 1-2, 5.33 in seven playoff starts.

Astros are in ALCS for third year in a row; they won 2017 World Series, but needed Game 5 to advance past Tampa Bay Thursday. Home teams won seven of nine NY-Houston games this year, with NYY winning three of four games played in the Big Apple.

New York lost the ALCS to Houston two years ago; they haven’t been in a World Series since 2009. NYY has allowed only seven runs in winning four of their five playoff games this month. Teams had yesterday off, so bullpens should both have ample rest.

National League
Cardinals @ Nationals (3-0)
Hudson is 6-1, 1.87 in his last nine starts; he is 2-1, 2.93 in six games (2 starts) vs Washington, and is 0-0, 1.93 in one playoff start, allowing four runs (one earned) in 4.2 IP.

Corbin is 0-2, 9.24 in his last five games (2 starts); he is 2-2, 4.50 in seven starts vs St Louis, and is 0-2, 7.56 in four playoff games (1 start).

Cardinals have been outscored 13-2 in series so far. St Louis is in the playoffs for first time in four years, after making it every year from 2011-15. Cardinals are in NLCS for first time since 2014.

Washington won the NLDS in dramatic fashion Wednesday, they’re 14-2 in last 16 games overall, and are in NLCS for the time since 1981, when they were the Montreal Expos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Tuesday, October 15

Trend Report

New York Yankees
NY Yankees is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
NY Yankees is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games
NY Yankees is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
NY Yankees is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games at home
NY Yankees is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
NY Yankees is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston
NY Yankees is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
NY Yankees is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
Houston Astros
Houston is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Houston is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Houston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Houston's last 15 games on the road
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees

Washington Nationals
Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 9 games
Washington is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Washington is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games at home
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 9 games when playing St. Louis
Washington is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against St. Louis
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
St. Louis is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of St. Louis's last 12 games
St. Louis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
St. Louis is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games on the road
St. Louis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games on the road
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of St. Louis's last 9 games when playing Washington
St. Louis is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Washington
St. Louis is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Washington

[Can'tPickAWinner]

By: Andrew Caley



POSTSEASON STARTER STAT OF THE DAY

Luis Severino, New York Yankees (1-1, 1.50 ERA, $65): Severino takes the ball at Yankee Stadium tonight, and while Cole will be the starter who gets most of the attention heading into this matchup, you can’t ignore the impact Severino can have on this matchup.

While Severino didn’t face the Astros this season, in two starts against them last year, he allowed two runs on nine hits while striking out 21 in 16 innings. And the right-hander is looking more and more like his old self with each passing appearance. Oh, and the Yankees are 22-4 in Severino’s last 26 starts at Yankee Stadium.


3 STRIKES

MINING FOR COLE’S VALUE

How good as Gerrit Cole been this season. Well, he’s on the road at Yankee Stadium, against one of the only lineups in baseball that scored more runs than the Astros, facing a quality starter in Severino, and are still -155 favorites.

Considering those factors and a Yankees’ bullpen that has a 1.88 ERA and is limiting opponents to a .172 batting average this postseason and we are leaning towards taking the value with the home underdog at +135 tonight.

THIS SERIES IS OVER

Well, we mean in terms of tonight’s total, which is currently set at 7.5. As mentioned previously, Hudson struggles more on the road and is facing a Nationals team that has nearly an .800 OPS over their five-game winning streak. And while we think this series has a strong chance of ending tonight, the Cardinals should out up a little fight. Additionally, the Over is 5-0-1 in Cardinals last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter and is 5-1 in Nationals last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The total is in trouble.

RED BIRDS HAVE POSTSEASON BLUES

St. Louis is a franchise known for being a perennial contender in the NL, however, that hasn’t translated to a lot of postseason success.

The Cardinals have dropped six straight NLCS games, are 2-8 in their last 10 playoff road games, are 7-19 in their last 26 League Championship road games and are 4-11 in their last 15 playoff games overall. A loss tonight means another season of unfulfilled potential in St. Louis.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL
Dunkel

Tuesday, October 15


Minnesota @ Toronto

Game 15-16
October 15, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
10.071
Toronto
12.489
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 2 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
-200
6
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-200); Under

Tampa Bay @ Montreal

Game 17-18
October 15, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
11.788
Montreal
10.147
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-140
6 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-140); Over

Arizona @ Winnipeg

Game 19-20
October 15, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
11.373
Winnipeg
9.730
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Winnipeg
-130
6
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(+110); Over

Philadelphia @ Calgary

Game 21-22
October 15, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
10.624
Calgary
9.180
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 1 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Calgary
-150
6
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+130); Under

Detroit @ Vancouver

Game 25-26
October 15, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
9.995
Vancouver
12.385
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Vancouver
by 2 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Vancouver
-150
6
Dunkel Pick:
Vancouver
(-150); Under

Nashville @ Vegas

Game 23-24
October 15, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Nashville
9.507
Vegas
12.805
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Vegas
by 3 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Vegas
-135
6 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Vegas
(-135); Over

Carolina @ Los Angeles

Game 27-28
October 15, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
10.591
Los Angeles
11.962
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Los Angeles
by 1 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
-155
6 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Los Angeles
(+135); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 15

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (1-4-0-0, 2 pts.) at TORONTO (3-2-0-1, 7 pts.) - 10/15/2019, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-2 (+0.4 Units) against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 2-2-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.9 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (2-2-0-1, 5 pts.) at MONTREAL (2-1-0-2, 6 pts.) - 10/15/2019, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 413-431 ATS (-132.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
TAMPA BAY is 188-215 ATS (-75.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season since 1996.
TAMPA BAY is 64-27 ATS (+16.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 33-12 ATS (+13.1 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 23-6 ATS (+13.0 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 6-2 (+3.3 Units) against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 6-2-0 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.8 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (1-2-0-1, 3 pts.) at WINNIPEG (4-3-0-0, 8 pts.) - 10/15/2019, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 27-57 ATS (+100.1 Units) first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 31-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 5-1 (+3.8 Units) against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 5-1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.0 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (2-0-0-1, 5 pts.) at CALGARY (2-3-0-1, 5 pts.) - 10/15/2019, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 436-388 ATS (-125.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
PHILADELPHIA is 15-26 ATS (-16.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
CALGARY is 14-6 ATS (+20.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 14-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 3-1 (+1.8 Units) against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 3-1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.9 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NASHVILLE (3-2-0-0, 6 pts.) at VEGAS (4-2-0-0, 8 pts.) - 10/15/2019, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NASHVILLE is 47-91 ATS (+147.5 Units) in road games when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
VEGAS is 53-32 ATS (-2.3 Units) first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
VEGAS is 19-5 ATS (+11.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 26-12 ATS (+11.6 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more over the last 3 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 12-3 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
VEGAS is 3-3 (+0.0 Units) against the spread versus NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
VEGAS is 3-3-0 straight up against NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.0 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (3-2-0-0, 6 pts.) at VANCOUVER (2-2-0-0, 4 pts.) - 10/15/2019, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 125-148 ATS (-81.6 Units) on Tuesday nights since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
VANCOUVER is 2-2-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+4.0 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CAROLINA (5-1-0-0, 10 pts.) at LOS ANGELES (2-3-0-0, 4 pts.) - 10/15/2019, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 144-236 ATS (+428.0 Units) in road games first half of the season since 1996.
CAROLINA is 77-138 ATS (+243.2 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1996.
CAROLINA is 28-13 ATS (+11.9 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 26-55 ATS (+83.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 2-2 (+0.2 Units) against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 2-2-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.3 Units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

by: Monty Andrews


ONE-SIDED RIVALRY

The Winnipeg Jets have shown no mercy on the Arizona Coyotes as they prepare to host the franchise that used to carry their name in a Tuesday night encounter. The Jets (2.0) have won 14 of the previous 18 meetings between the teams since the start of the 2014-15 season, including a 4-2 triumph in their previous showdown on April 7.

The Jets have another trend working in their favor in this one: the home team has prevailed in 10 of the last 13 games between the clubs. The Coyotes enter the week going 4-0 to the Under, having seen just 14 total goals scored in their first four games.


OVER AND ABOVE

Bettors who took the Over on the period totals between the Colorado Avalanche and Pittsburgh Penguins last season might still be counting their winnings. Two of the most dangerous offensive teams in the league face off Wednesday night in Pennsylvania in the first of two regular-season meetings – and fans and bettors alike can only hope this year's games turn out a lot like last year's.

Each team secured a 6-3 home victory against the other, and five of the six periods in those two games featured three or more goals scored. Live betting the Over on a period goal total could be a worthwhile option in this one.


LOADING UP

The odds might be the lowest of any player props you'll encounter this week – but it could pay handsomely to consider a trio of Edmonton Oilers skaters for Wednesday's home encounter with the Philadelphia Flyers. Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and James Neal should all offer terrible payouts on the points prop, with McDavid and Draisaitl entering the week ranked 1-2 in league scoring and Neal having potted seven goals through the first five games.

With the Flyers playing in Calgary the night before and the Oilers enjoying home-ice advantage, all three are terrific plays on either their goal or point props.


NARROW VICTORIES

You have to give it to the New Jersey Devils and New York Rangers: when they square off, things are tense right up to the final minute of play. The Metropolitan Division (and geographical) rivals renew acquaintances Thursday night at Prudential Center in Newark having split their previous eight meetings overall.

Even more incredibly, six of those seven games were decided by a goal while three went to extra time. There are a couple of different directions bettors can go here; either by taking one team or the other to prevail via a one-goal margin, or to pick Yes on the extra-time prop.


GOALIE PROFILE: JONATHAN QUICK, LOS ANGELES KINGS

Could this be the end of Quick as a competent NHL netminder? It sure looks like it through the early stages of the season, with Quick ranking dead last among qualifies netminders in goals-against average (6.43) and save percentage (.793) entering the week.

Don't be surprised to see a lot more of Jack Campbell, who has won both of his starts while boasting much more respectable – though not exactly elite – statistics (3.48 GAA, .885 SV%) Until one of these guys hits his stride, the Over will continue to be a strong play in Kings games, with Los Angeles coming into the week a perfect 5-0 O/U.


INJURY UPDATE: D NIKLAS HJALMARSSON, ARIZONA COYOTES

We have one more reason to like the Jets in Tuesday night's encounter with the visiting Coyotes. Defenseman Niklas Hjalmarsson suffered a cracked fibula last weekend and is expected to be lost for up to three months.

It's a devastating injury for the Coyotes, who have been one of the more defensively sound teams in the NHL – having given up just seven goals through their first four games of the season. But while an injury to a key defenseman might improve that team's Over chances the majority of the time, we still like the Coyotes as an Under play given that they've also scored just seven goals in four games entering the week.


HAT TRICK TRENDS

• Home ice wasn't much of an advantage at all last week. Home teams won less than half their games over the previous seven days, converting only 47.7 percent of the time (21-18-5). Things were just as dismal for home favorites, who won outright at a surprisingly low 47.1-percent pace (16-13-5) overall.

• Over bettors who haven't been deterred by all those 6s and 6.5s have been rewarded handsomely so far, with the Over cashing 40 times compared to the Under at 35 conversions entering the new week. Last week saw 24 games end Over the total, with 19 games coming in below the number; extra-time games were actually 5-6 O/U for the week.

• Four teams accustomed to being near the bottom of the league standings in recent years have been the best value bets of the season in the early going. The unbeaten Edmonton Oilers lead the way at +4.95 units overall, with the Buffalo Sabres coming into the week at No. 2 (+3.46). Detroit rounds out the top three (+3.37) with Carolina ranked fourth (+3.22).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Thistledown

Thistledown - Race 8	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta
Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 89 • Purse: $10,700 • Post: 5:10P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE OCTOBER 15. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE AUGUST 15 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * KING'S RECKONING: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. J B QUICK: Today i s a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. GOT GRIT: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the l ast 30 days. BEAUTIFUL GAME: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
4	KING'S RECKONING	7/2	5/1
6	J B QUICK	5/1	5/1
2	GOT GRIT	6/1	7/1
3	BEAUTIFUL GAME	9/2	8/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	BEAUTIFUL GAME	3	9/2	Stalker	83	87	60.2	70.2	60.2
6	J B QUICK	6	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	88	79	61.4	79.0	76.0
8	RUSHED	8	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	78	78	61.0	69.8	55.3
2	GOT GRIT	2	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	86	82	48.6	79.4	73.4
1	PROPER TOUCH	1	12/1	Trailer	80	71	46.6	64.4	50.9
4	KING'S RECKONING	4	7/2	Alternator/Trailer	92	87	47.4	86.0	82.0
7	NOBLE DAVE	7	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	88	70	62.4	60.0	44.5
11	FIFTH AVENUE FLASH	11	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	82	74	52.8	67.8	54.8
9	KELCORCEE	9	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	69	73	51.5	51.2	34.2
10	REBEL ROAD	10	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	74	67	47.2	64.6	46.6
5	CAN'T REMEMBER	5	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	84	71	38.0	58.7	42.7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Indiana Downs

Indiana Downs - Race 1	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) 50 Cent Pick 5 (Races 1-2-3-4-5)
Optional Claiming $12,500 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 89 • Purse: $20,000 • Post: 2:15P
FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR CLAIMING PRICE $12,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * STILL CHIEF: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in T rackMaster Power Rating. WILLS DEFENCE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. EVADER: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the to p three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
6	STILL CHIEF	7/2	4/1
3	WILLS DEFENCE	4/5	5/1
2	EVADER	10/1	6/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	MEETME AT D'STREET	1	30/1	Front-runner	88	73	91.2	51.4	38.9
3	WILLS DEFENCE	3	4/5	Front-runner	85	86	88.2	82.0	76.0
2	EVADER	2	10/1	Front-runner	96	86	74.6	80.0	73.5
5	IRISH STOUT	5	8/1	Alternator/Front-runner	83	70	72.0	74.8	63.8
6	STILL CHIEF	6	7/2	Stalker	88	88	63.4	83.2	79.7
4	HUCKLEBERRY HILL	4	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	75	75	74.0	72.4	64.4
7	REDYORNOTHEREICOME	7	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	87	85	53.8	71.8	62.3
8	GARRISON K	8	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	79	75	50.8	66.8	53.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 8 - Optional Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 88

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR NON-WINNERS OF THREE RACES CLAIMING PRICE $15,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 SCRAPPY DEVILLE 9/2
# 1 SIX POINT RACK 5/1
# 3 NOBLE EGYPTIAN 5/2

SCRAPPY DEVILLE has a quite good shot to take this race. Conditioner has strong win rate (25 percent) at this distance and surface. Has to be carefully examined based on the very good Equibase Speed Figure earned in the last competition. SIX POINT RACK - He has earned respectable numbers under today's conditions and will almost certainly fare well versus this field. Should compete admirably in the early pace contest which bodes well with this group. NOBLE EGYPTIAN - Recently Diodoro has provided wagerers with a competitive winning percentage with horses racing in turf route races. Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a strong angle. This horse ranks at the top in this lot.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Mountaineer Park - Race #9 - Post: 9:56pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,800 Class Rating: 65

Rating:

#10 JERRY THE BULL (ML=12/1)
#6 SLIM (ML=5/1)


JERRY THE BULL - Strong return on investment for this jockey and handler tandem. SLIM - Quinones rode this thoroughbred for the initial time in the last race and comes right back this time around. Don't throw this horse out due to his last clash at Mountaineer Park where he finished fourth in the slop. Expect much better today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 TWO MILE CREEK (ML=5/2), #7 GRAN CITY (ML=7/2), #8 EVERGLIDE DRIVE (ML=6/1),

TWO MILE CREEK - The morning-line choice is suspect here with the lack of works. Hard to put any cash on this gelding on the top end. Likes to end up on the board though. GRAN CITY - This gelding hasn't had any in the money results in short distance races in the last two months. This vulnerable equine hasn't been near the winner at the finish line of late. EVERGLIDE DRIVE - It looks like too much speed is signed up in this race. This speedball will almost certainly get baked on the front end. This colt is always hitting the board, but just doesn't finish on top. Hard to invest in him on the front end. This colt registered a speed figure in his last race which likely isn't good enough in today's race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #10 JERRY THE BULL on the nose if you can get odds of 8/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [6,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip