Service Plays Tuesday 10/22/19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

70% Computer plays

Vegas Golden Knights

[dawggy]

ROB VENO

BASEBALL PLAYS

• Game: (901) Washington Nationals at (902) Houston Astros
  Date/Time: Oct 22 2019 8:08 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Westgate
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Houston Astros -1.5 (+115)
  
  View Analysis

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCK


BASKETBALL PLAYS

• Game: (501) New Orleans Pelicans at (502) Toronto Raptors
  Date/Time: Oct 22 2019 8:05 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Westgate
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: 1H Total Under 118.5 (-110)
  
  View Analysis
  
  No Kawhi and no Zion...certainly NOT what the schedule makers and Adam Silver had hoped...or us as die hard fans! The Pelicans of course will look wildly different than they did just last season. Gentry is still at the helm as HC and Jrue Holiday is still a major factor in the back court...and Etuan Moore is the only returning player who will be featured tomorrow night. Jrue will be joined by Lonzo Ball in the NO back court and will be a defensive dynamo...likely the best (if healthy) 1 & 2/3 in the entire NBA.
  The Raptors will of course not have Kawhi and dropped from a 10/1 to 100/1 odds to repeat as champs. Outside Kawhi, however the team is largely the same and will likely be led by Lowry, Siakam, and Gasol. Lowry will have a rough start to season being guarded by either bigger more physical defender and Favors is an Under plus for me as well as Okafor behind him...and I already like Gasol as an Under positive aspect. The total here is 118.5 and that's even more than half the full game....bargain.
  c

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCK


Game:(901) Washington Nationals at (902) Houston Astros
Date/Time: Oct 22 2019 8:08 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 5%
Play: 1H Total Under 3.0 (+105)

View Analysis

Scherzer v. Cole
The pitcher's duel of pitcher's duels...not always does the World Series arrive with very possibly the Cy Young winner of each league on the mound. We have had a solid year backing both these fellas...when possible...as Cole for one, has been borderline impossible to back especially at home, with the ridiculous prices he garners and justifiably earns. Cole just finished the season with the biggest average line in database history...with a -263 average line for his 36 starts...and was massively profitable!!! In fact, he was the most profitable pitcher of any pitcher to average laying more than -175 per start! His only real competition was a couple years of Kershaw and Curt Schilling in 2004, but in all those cases they yielded less profit while also laying closer to even than Cole. At home he was even better AND laid more wood....laying an average of -303 and still making $100 bettor 12 times their wagers. He is also new to just about all the pertinent Nats tonight save Rendon, who has hit decently at 5/13 lifetime...but advantage to Cole as those ABs were a while ago...
Scherzer is a good bit older than Cole in this matchup, but still might be the NL's Cy Young winner again this season...and has had 9 days rest before tonight's game. I always favor extra rest, both in days or hours or minutes being on the side of the pitcher and in the face of the offensive lineup. Extra time off throws off hitters in a big way, but is complete commonplace for pitchers. They have a routine and can always re-enact the routine whereas hitters play 150+ times a summer and the pitchers play 1/5 the amount of games.
Both starters have been lights out thus far in the playoffs and this was also in the groove of a normal series facing hitters in lineups on regular routine rest etc.
This is also a series starting in the AL team Houston's park...meaning the DH is in effect, so the Astros will (normally) have 9 hitters no pitcher and the Nats are able to add a batter to the lineup and this number STILL opened from Vegas at 3.5! Don't be scared of this tiny number... it is tiny for a reason...and 2 strikeout pitchers on the mound for each team whose lineup has almost completely not seen either pitcher and certainly not recently is the reason this number is so small!
Alan Porter is also behind the plate tonight and is one of the best Over umpires in the league....and yet the number continues to trend down as we also know the public is ABSOLUTELY not backing an Under play that opened at 7!
Why is Vegas begging us to bet the Under...meanwhile dropping the number from its already crazy low 7 full game and 3.5 first 5?? The answer takes the mound at 10 after 8 tonight!

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCK

• Game: (53) Los Angeles Kings at (54) Winnipeg Jets
  Date/Time: Oct 22 2019 8:05 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: William Hill
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Winnipeg Jets -145
  
  View Analysis
  
  Danny O'Halloran and young South are the referees for this game...and as stated in the free play and tweet....Danny boy is a perfect 13-0 when on the ice with the Jets over the past 3 seasons!
  
• Game: (59) Washington Capitals at (60) Calgary Flames
  Date/Time: Oct 22 2019 9:05 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Washington Capitals +107
  
  View Analysis
  
  WAY WAY too much value getting the Caps as a dog here facing the Flames at home as a very short favorite and with Talbot in the crease. Holtby gets the start for the Caps and while overall, not so great on the young season...of late, definitely very very solid. Carlson is an absolute stud, obivously Ovechkin is the ticket...and Talbot is a downgrade from Rittich and the Flames are already mediocre to begin with and I would not be surprised if they ended up favored by later tonight before the puck drops.
  Take the Caps to get a solid road win led by Ovechkin and Carlson and Holtby in goal, continuing to improve, especially against offenses not playing up to standard.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Maddux

10* New Orleans/Toronto under 231