Service Plays Saturday 10/26/19

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-21-2019, 08:08 PM

+EV: CFB 4u: 207 Notre Dame Fighting Irish +1.5 -110 (Saturday, October 26th)

+EV: CFB 4u: 144 Wyoming Cowboys -13.5 -105 (Saturday, October 26th)

+EV: CFB 4u: 141 California Golden Bears +21.5 -108 (Saturday, October 26th)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-23-2019, 05:40 AM

Barrett Sallee

PENN ST. -6.5
PENN ST. @ MICHIGAN ST. | 10/26 | 3:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:22 PM
The world got a glimpse of the Sean Clifford-to-K.J. Hamler connection last week, and running back Noah Cain has provided much-needed balance to the Penn State offense. Michigan State is known for defense but has given up 28.3 points per game to Big Ten opponents. This game will get sideways in the second half and James Franklin's crew will easily cover.

22-12-2 IN LAST 36 CFB PICKS | +879
3-0 IN LAST 3 MICHST ATS PICKS | +300

3-0 IN LAST 3 PSU ATS PICKS | +300

NOTRE DAME +1
NOTRE DAME @ MICHIGAN | 10/26 | 7:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:16 PM
The Fighting Irish have averaged 7.42 yards per play in October and have had two weeks to prepare for a reeling Wolverines team that struggles to move the ball consistently and has ball security issues. The Fighting Irish are tied for 13th in the nation in takeaways with 14, and Michigan has given away the ball 14 times -- tied for 109th in the nation. Ian Book will play smart while Shea Patterson will continue his erratic play. Notre Dame will win outright, but take the points if you want.

22-12-2 IN LAST 36 CFB PICKS | +879
2-1 IN LAST 3 MICH ATS PICKS | +86

3-2 IN LAST 5 ND ATS PICKS | +78

TEXAS -1
TEXAS @ TCU | 10/26 | 3:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:14 PM
The Longhorns defense has been historically bad this year, but it's not like the Horned Frogs have been lighting it up on offense in October (347.5 yards per game). The Oklahoma loss is the only game this season in which the Texas offense gained fewer than 427 yards on offense. Which team do you trust more in a shootout, Texas or TCU? Hook 'em.

22-12-2 IN LAST 36 CFB PICKS | +879
3-0 IN LAST 3 TCU ATS PICKS | +300

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-23-2019, 10:13 PM

+EV: CFB 4u: 135 Syracuse Orange +10.5 -108 (Saturday, October 26th)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-23-2019, 10:14 PM

Ralph Michael's

4% Nevada +14

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-24-2019, 07:53 AM

LV Wolf

rice +10
rutgers +7.5

**Iowethe man** · 10-24-2019, 05:13 PM

Stanford Steve' and 'The Bear': Week 9 college football picks, bets, nuggets

The plays

Stanford Steve (3-3 last week, 20-17-2 overall)

The Bear (1-5 last week, 18-16-1 overall)

Texas Longhorns (-1, 59.5) at TCU Horned Frogs
The Bear: A thin Texas defense was on the field for 86 plays last week and gave up 7.7 yards per play to Oklahoma the week prior. Now, the Longhorns head to Fort Worth to take on a desperate TCU team coming off consecutive road losses. I'm not sure Max Duggan is going to scare many teams at quarterback for the Horned Frogs, but he and the running game should be able to make enough plays against a defense that misses a ton of tackles and is 113th nationally in yards per play allowed; only four Power 5 teams are worse (Texas Tech, UCLA, Vanderbilt and Colorado). I'll also side with the books, which made TCU a favorite, only to see this number cross zero. If you like TCU, you might even be able to get 2 or 2.5 by Saturday.
It's sometimes dangerous to compare box scores with common opponents, but TCU beat Kansas on its home field 51-14, outgaining the Jayhawks 625-159. Texas needed a last-second field goal to beat KU 50-48 in a game where it allowed 569 yards.
Pick: TCU +1

Texas State Bobcats at Arkansas State Red Wolves (-12, 58.5)
NFL & CFB Best Bets

Stanford Steve/Bear: Week 9 CFB info
Panel: Week 9 CFB best bets
NFL: Week 8 lines to grab now
CFB: Week 9 early betting look
PickCenter: NFL | CFB
The Bear: The Red Wolves are still dealing with some injuries, and while backup QB Layne Hatcher has been putting up solid numbers, the defense is a huge problem, as it has allowed 496 or more yards six times this season. Texas State actually ranks 43 spots better than Arkansas State in defensive yards per play, and if the offense can keep taking better care of the ball, the Bobcats should find the end zone enough to hang in the game. Arkansas State allowed 722 yards in a loss to Georgia State, while Texas State beat the Panthers.
Pick: Texas State +12

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Michigan Wolverines (-1, 51)
EDITOR'S PICKS

Stanford Steve: The Wolverines haven't played a team in the top 40 in passing yards this season. Even though I was impressed with their improvement across the board last week at Penn State, I feel like Notre Dame's skill-position talent is better than Michigan's defensive skill talent. QB Ian Book and the offense have faced above-average secondaries in Virginia and Georgia. In that road loss to the Dawgs, Book completed 64% of his passes for 275 yards. Brian Kelly has never won in Ann Arbor, but I don't think we'll be able to say that after this game. Take the Irish.
Pick: Notre Dame +1; Notre Dame 27, Michigan 21

Tulane Green Wave at Navy Midshipmen (-3.5, 53)
Stanford Steve: This one feels like the same game as when Tulane went to West Point a couple weeks ago. We were on the wrong side that day when we went against the Green Wave; this time we'll take them.
Pick: Tulane +3.5; Tulane 24, Navy 23
Stanford Steve's short favorite to take on the money line

South Carolina Gamecocks (-4.5, 48) at Tennessee Volunteers
I just think the Vols will really have trouble blocking the Gamecocks, and with Brian Maurer out, South Carolina has an advantage at quarterback.
Pick: South Carolina ML -175; South Carolina 24, Tennessee 18
Stanford Steve's pick for the SEC game of the week

Auburn Tigers at LSU Tigers (-11.5, 58.5)
I think we get an old-school SEC game, as Auburn can win only if it runs for a lot of yards and keeps Joe Burrow and the LSU offense off the field.
Pick: Under 58.5; LSU 27, Auburn 16
Stanford Steve's picks to go over the total

Maryland Terrapins at Minnesota Golden Gophers (-16.5, 56.5)
I don't like the matchup or the situation for the Terps as they head north. I think the Gophers' offense is legit and Maryland will score enough.
Pick: Over 56.5; Minnesota 41, Maryland 24

Utah State Aggies at Air Force Falcons (-3.5, 58)
This is a contrast of styles. Utah State plays as fast as anyone in the country, while you know the Falcons play that option. The Aggies average 33 points and over 450 yards per game on offense, while Air Force averages 37 points per game, getting around 300 yards on the ground. The over has cashed in four of the past six games these two have played against each other.
Pick: Over 58; Air Force 33, Utah State 30

Two-game Toilet Bowl teaser

Two-team, six-point teaser.
UConn Huskies (-10, 62.5) at UMass Minutemen
Liberty Flames (-7.5, 47.5) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Stanford Steve: Worst two games on the slate. Figured I would offer my thoughts for some laughs.
Pick: UConn -4, Liberty -1.5
The Bear: As advertised on the podcast. Rutgers' FPI is 121. UMass comes in at 130 and UConn is 127.
Pick: Liberty -1.5, UMass +16

Stay-away games

The Bear

Tulane Green Wave at Navy Midshipmen (-3.5, 53)
The Green Wave could be down running backs Darius Bradwell, who was a surprise scratch at Memphis, and Corey Dauphine, who injured his wrist in the game.

Penn State Nittany Lions (-6.5, 44) at Michigan State Spartans
The Spartans have won each of the past two meetings as a double-digit underdog, and the spot couldn't be worse for the Nittany Lions off the victory over Michigan, coupled with MSU entering off an idle week after being embarrassed by Wisconsin. But Michigan State's offense is a unit I want no part of backing right now.

San Diego State Aztecs (-13, 45) at UNLV Rebels
Revenge is on the minds of the Aztecs after last season's loss to the Rebels, but San Diego State isn't the most prolific offense out there, and UNLV -- like SDSU -- has shown it's capable of beating a Power 5 team. Not sure I'd be looking to lay two touchdowns with an offense that might not hit 30 points.
Stanford Steve

Iowa Hawkeyes (-10.5, 37.5) at Northwestern Wildcats
Yuck.

Indiana Hoosiers (-1, 52.5) at Nebraska Cornhuskers
No idea what to expect from the quarterback position -- on either side.

Arizona Wildcats (-1, 53.5) at Stanford Cardinal
I'll be in attendance for the 1999 Pac-10 Rose Bowl team reunion. Too much emotion. Go Card!

The Bear's money-line parlay of the week

Seven-team favorite ML parlay. Based on current Caesars odds, $100 wins $34.82.
Clemson -12000
Western Michigan -3500
Utah -2500
Fresno State -600
Appalachian State -5000
Alabama -10000
Northern Illinois -2500

The Bear's underdogs to play in parlays, round robins and/or on ML

Eastern Michigan +150
Indiana +108
East Carolina +110
Louisville +145
Texas State +375

Stanford Steve's line that makes no sense

Texas Longhorns (-1, 59.5) at TCU Horned Frogs
In nontraditional rivalries, when you rank how much a head coach hates another annual opponent, I would put Gary Patterson's hatred for the burnt orange atop the list.
Pick: TCU +1; TCU 31, Texas 30

Bear Bytes

Weekend headliner!

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Connecticut at Massachusetts is the first game pitting two teams with matching 1-6 records since 2017, when Texas State beat Coastal Carolina as a 10-point dog. In fact, each of the past five games where both teams brought a 1-6 mark into the game saw the underdog win outright. That run dates back to 2004.
Temple usually a live home 'dog
In its past nine games as a home underdog, Temple is 8-1 ATS with six outright wins. That includes wins this season both times the Owls were home 'dogs (vs. Maryland and Memphis.)
Stanford in an unusual position
This is the first time since the Arizona game in 2008 that Stanford is a home underdog in conference play against someone other than Oregon, USC or Washington. That day, Jim Harbaugh's Cardinal beat Arizona 24-23 as a 6.5-point 'dog.
Kansas is respected
This would be the first time since the Iowa State game in 2014 that Kansas is less than a 4-point underdog. KU won 34-14 that day as a 3.5-point 'dog. The Jayhawks currently are 4-point underdogs vs. Texas Tech.
Take the points in Columbus?
Six of the past seven meetings between Wisconsin and Ohio State have resulted in either a Wisconsin win (2010) or an Ohio State win by seven points or less. The Buckeyes' 59-0 win in the 2014 Big Ten Championship game is the only OSU victory by more than a touchdown in this stretch. Note Wisconsin was favored in three of the seven games.
... or maybe not
Since 1990, there have been seven ranked favorites who lost outright as at least a 24-point favorite and then were an underdog the following week. Only one of the seven -- Virginia Tech last season -- bounced back from that loss to win. The seven went a collective 2-4-1 ATS.
Horned Frogs > Horns?
This is the first time since 2012 that TCU will face a ranked Texas team. TCU has won and covered four of the past five meetings, losing last season as a 3-point favorite.
Can't beat the rivals
Michigan is 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS under Jim Harbaugh against Ohio State, Michigan State and Notre Dame.
Spartans' underdog role

Michigan State is 4-5 ATS in its past nine games as an underdog. Prior to that, MSU was 17-4 in its previous 21 games as a 'dog. However, each of the past two seasons, the Spartans have beaten Penn State outright as a double-digit underdog.
Coach O a lock vs. top 10
In 19 games against top-10 opponents, Ed Orgeron is 15-3-1 ATS. Coach O is 13-1-1 ATS against top-10 teams not named Alabama and has won each of the past eight outright in that spot.
Eastern Michigan back in beloved spot
In its past 26 games as an underdog, EMU is 21-5 ATS with 11 outright wins.
Ducks have been dominated

Washington State has covered nine straight vs. Oregon and won each of the past four outright.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-24-2019, 06:21 PM

Sharp Totals Club (7-1 on 3* Totals for Season)

3* TOM Liberty/Rutgers Under 45.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-24-2019, 06:26 PM

Doc Sports

college

7-texas-1
4-utah st. +3.5
3-ndame-1
3-nortwestern+10
3-tulsa+10.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-24-2019, 06:29 PM

VERNON CROY

6-Miami/Pittsburgh GAME TOTAL UNDER 43.5 (NCAA)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-25-2019, 04:59 AM

Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 26 2019 7:30PM
208 Michigan 1.0(-110) William Hill vs 207 Notre Dame triple-dime bet

Analysis: Jim Harbaugh is 0-4 SU vs Michigan St and Ohio St at home but is 28-0 SU vs everyone else. The Wolverines were really impressive last week at Penn St (much to our dismay) as down 21-0 early, they rallied and almost forced OT. Even though they lost, we think they should come away confident from that performance. To us the match-ups favor the home team. In order to beat Michigan’s defense, you need to be able to beat their press man coverage. Penn St had an elite speed guy in WR KJ Hamler last week, Ohio St had multiple guys last year. ND simply doesn’t have that kind of play-maker at RB or WR this year. Also, on the other side, ND’s defense really struggled vs USC’s WR’s in their last game and now face another talented WR corps. Michigan at home vs Notre Dame is on a 7-1 SU run with an average win by 12.4 ppg. The only negative here is that Notre Dame is off a bye. Still, at “+1” we have the right side in our opinion. Remember, UM was laying 3 in South Bend last year (meaning they would’ve been around -9 or -10 at home). Have these teams changed 10-plus points since then? We don’t think so.

Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 26 2019 3:30PM
162 Michigan St. 6.5(-110) Westgate vs 161 Penn St. single-dime bet

Analysis: A great situational spot for Michigan St here as they are off a bye taking on a Penn St team off a dramatic, “White Out” win over Michigan and a physical game vs Iowa the week before (both prime-time ABC games). Penn St was handled in the final 40 minutes of Michigan game after taking a 21-0 lead in the 2Q. We feel Penn St is a little overrated as they are 2-0 SU the last two weeks but were -134 yards vs Michigan and -62 yards vs Iowa. Michigan St is 5-1 SU/ATS vs Penn State as of late with an average cover by 8.5 ppg! Also note that Michigan St has caught Penn St off big games vs Ohio St the last 2 years and pulled outright upsets.

Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 26 2019 7:30PM
209 Arizona St. -3.5(-110) Westgate vs 210 UCLA double-dime bet

Analysis: We’ll back the Sun Devils off the worst loss of the Herm Edwards tenure last week. The Utes ended Arizona State’s modern-era record streak of 125 games with more than 10 points. The last time the Sun Devils were held under double-digits was a 28-0 loss to Southern California in 2008. On the other side, UCLA took advantage of a Stanford team that announced they would be starting their 3rd string QB less than 24 hours before the game. UCLA dominated with 20-11 first down and 455-198 yard edges including 263-55 on the ground. However, the Bruins are still No. 112 in yards per play differential while Arizona St is No. 47. Keep in mind, two of UCLA’s best performances this season came vs back-up QB’s.

Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 26 2019 12:00PM
110 Purdue -9.5(-110) Westgate vs 109 Illinois double-dime bet

Analysis: We like Purdue here as they’ve clearly turned the corner in the last couple of games (despite all the injuries). First, they crushed Maryland 40-14 as 4-point dogs and then last week nearly upset Iowa as 17.5-point dogs (only lost by 6 and only out-gained by 2). Purdue QB Jack Plummer was 30 of 50 for 327 yards and 2 TD’s. Frosh WR David Bell had a career-high 13 catches for 197 yards. On the other side, we’re fading Illinois off the biggest upset of 2019 so far (won outright as 30.5-point dogs vs Wisconsin). But we’re actually fading a team that has had four misleading finals in a row. First, the Illini lost by only 4 to Nebraska despite getting out-gained by 375 yards (were +3 TO’s). Then Illinois lost by 23 to Minnesota but both of Illinois’ TD’s were defensive scores. Two weeks ago, Illinois trailed Michigan 28-0 before the Wolverines fell asleep and then last week Illinois had a 2% win probability late in the game, but managed the big upset.

Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 26 2019 10:30PM
153 Washington St. 14.0(-110) Westgate vs 154 Oregon single-dime bet

Analysis: Washington St is 9-0 ATS vs Oregon this decade with an average cover of 16.3 ppg. Both teams come in off wins. Note that Washington St head coach Mike Leach said after last week’s game vs Colorado, “I think we are emerging defensively. We simplified some things but we are still kind of coming together there a little bit, honestly. I think the defense has some of its best football ahead of us.” Meanwhile, that vaunted Ducks’ defense that allowed four touchdowns all season gave up three in the first half to Washington and the Ducks were extremely fortunate to come back and win that game. Oregon has USC on deck and have a commanding lead in the Pac-12 North so they could be a little lax here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-25-2019, 07:34 AM

Tony George

8 unit Ball st -2.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-25-2019, 07:34 AM

Doug Upstone

7 unit Ball st -2.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-25-2019, 07:34 AM

Raphael Esparza (VSI)

6 unit Ball st -2.5

**WeWantMoehr** · 10-25-2019, 08:21 AM

Alan Harris - CFB

4 Troy 1.5
5 Temple +11
4 Central Michigan +3
3 East Carolina +2
3 Air Force -3.5
3 Hawaii -9.5
5 Ball St -2.5
7 Texas -1
6 Virginia -3.5
4 Northern Illinois -23
5 Texas tech -4
3 San Diego St -13
2 Memphis/Tulsa 58.5o
2 Bowling Green/Western Mich 64u
2 Indiana/Nebraska 53o
2 Duke/UNC 53o
2 FAU/ODU 50o
2 Wisconsin/OSU 49.5o
2 Auburn/LSU 58.5o
2 La tech/UTEP 50.5o
2 ND/michigan 52u

Service Plays Saturday 10/26/19

Service Plays Saturday 10/26/19

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