Wednesday 10-30-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph

FREE play WED: SL Blues -170

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Vegas Steam Line

Your free winner for Wednesday: PORTLAND/OKLAHOMA CITY UNDER the total of 223

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High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Wednesday: Houston Rockets - 8

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Kenny Towers

Your Free Pick for Wednesday: Houston -8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs

Delta Downs - Race 8	Daily Double (Races 8-9) ($1min.) / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 min.) Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10) (.50 min.) / Superfecta (.10 min.)
Allowance • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 77 • Purse: $34,000 • Post: 8:11P
FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 30 ALLOWED 3 LBS. (CLAIMING RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Trailer. JACK THE UMPIRE is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * JACK THE UMPIRE: Horse is highest ranked on Good Speed and Good Class. Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or t urf) is at least 50. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SCOTTY G: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post positi on. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
8	JACK THE UMPIRE	9/5	9/5
2	SCOTTY G	8/1	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	SCOTTY G	2	8/1	Front-runner	64	68	57.8	64.5	60.0
9	TEXAS TROUBADOR	9	15/1	Stalker	61	55	49.4	48.6	32.1
5	REACH THE CIRCLE	5	12/1	Stalker	61	55	44.4	50.2	35.2
4	TAKING NOTES	4	15/1	Stalker	56	44	41.8	42.3	27.8
7	ROSSLARE HARBOUR	7	15/1	Stalker	58	39	37.9	37.0	24.5
8	JACK THE UMPIRE	8	9/5	Trailer	80	80	67.3	75.8	71.8
3	SEA BEE SALUTE	3	9/2	Trailer	68	67	60.7	61.7	53.7
1	VALIANT DEFENDER	1	4/1	Trailer	69	56	47.4	58.8	53.8
6	JERSEY CAT TALE	6	10/1	Trailer	63	63	38.9	53.8	45.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Evangeline Downs

Evangeline Downs - Race 4	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6)
Claiming $10,000 • 220 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 74 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 6:50P
QUARTER HORSE 220Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * A POLITICAL PICKLE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. ETTAS LIL JET: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. LEADERS LUNA ECLIPSE: Horse has the highest average E quibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. FAST LOLO: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MSMA FAST JORDON: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation.
7	A POLITICAL PICKLE	5/1	6/1
3	ETTAS LIL JET	2/1	6/1
4	LEADERS LUNA ECLIPSE	6/1	7/1
5	FAST LOLO	8/1	8/1
6	MSMA FAST JORDON	8/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	MOUNTAIN ROCK	1	3/1	Average	68	56	0.0	0.0	0.0
2	CALL RACHEL	2	5/1	Average	59	52	0.0	0.0	0.0
3	ETTAS LIL JET	3	2/1	Slow	73	63	6.3	0.0	0.0
4	LEADERS LUNA ECLIPSE	4	6/1	Average	70	66	4.9	0.0	0.0
5	FAST LOLO	5	8/1	Average	64	65	4.9	0.0	0.0
6	MSMA FAST JORDON	6	8/1	Fast	75	53	2.5	0.0	0.0
7	A POLITICAL PICKLE	7	5/1	Fast	64	69	0.0	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Optional Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $17800 Class Rating: 79

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $15,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 30 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000 W V

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 PULLED THE GOALIE 5/1
# 3 HAIL SPRING 3/1
# 4 ESTRELA CADENTE 4/1

PULLED THE GOALIE looks to be a respectable contender. Is hard not to consider based on speed figs which have been very good - 76 avg - of late. I think having Williams ride this mare is a smart choice. The average Equibase class rating of 76 makes this entrant tough to beat. HAIL SPRING - Like the finishes in the last couple of events. Garnered a very strong speed fig last time out. ESTRELA CADENTE - This mare is a solid choice based on her earnings per start in dirt route events.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Gulfstream Park West - Race #2 - Post: 1:29pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 71

Rating:

#2 SIESTA MOON (ML=3/1)


SIESTA MOON - Have to make this gelding a win candidate; he comes off a strong race on Oct 13th. Trying to be a winner for the first-time moving from a turf race to the dirt. I think O'Connell will have him conditioned well for today's race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 BLESSD BY THE BEST (ML=2/1), #1 MOON PISTOL (ML=7/2), #3 RED NATION (ML=9/2),

BLESSD BY THE BEST - This chalk horse ran on October 2nd and hasn't had a workout since. MOON PISTOL - This vulnerable equine will probably be way back as this group crosses the finish line. RED NATION - The Brain always tells me to keep my distance from horses in short distance affairs that haven't hit the board in sprint events of late.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #2 SIESTA MOON on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Maiden Claiming - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 60

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000. OKLAHOMA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $17,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 GRETOUKI 20/1
# 5 AVIE'S PARADISE 1/1
# 2 ROYAL C 9/2

GRETOUKI has a very strong shot to take this race and is a very good value-based wager given the 20/1 line. This pony has some longshot angles going for her. Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a very good angle. This entrant ranks at the top in this field of horses. AVIE'S PARADISE - Have to wager on this money-making rider and trainer twosome. Posted a quite good speed figure last time out. ROYAL C - The odds may be just right on this entrant. Had one of the strongest speed figures of this group in her last competition.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Woodbine - Race #4 - Post: 8:12pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 81

Rating:

#9 RADIO NOWHERE (ML=20/1)
#4 VICTOR'S WAY (ML=3/1)
#7 VICTORIOUS BEAR (ML=6/1)
#3 KRPAN (ML=2/1)


RADIO NOWHERE - This front running sort is shortening up today. Should promote his chances of winning. Recent speed figures show dominant pattern of improvement. VICTOR'S WAY - Finished ahead of today's favorite last out at Woodbine. Can do the same again in today's race. This gelding is in excellent physical condition right now. Ran third in the last race and comes back promptly. I think this gelding could run back to his winning race from July 3rd, when he won a $40,000 Maiden Optional Claiming race, a higher class than today's race. VICTORIOUS BEAR - This gelding is in top form right now. Finished second last time around the track and comes back promptly. KRPAN - Kimura's agent must like anytime McKnight gives them a mount; win pct together is terrific. Faced tougher last race out at Woodbine. Based on Equibase class figures, this is a weaker field, so I will put this thoroughbred on my list of choice plays.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 DANCING DEREK (ML=7/2),

DANCING DEREK - Improbable that this horse will finish better than he did last time when finishing fifth. Don't feel this questionable contender will make a winning move in today's race. That last speed rating was substandard when compared with today's Equibase class figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #9 RADIO NOWHERE to win if you can get at least 6/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,7,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Churchill Downs

PURCHASE

10/30/19, CD, Race 1, 1.00 ET
1 1/16M [Dirt] 1.41.00 CLAIMING. Purse $40,000.
Claiming Price $16,000 (Races Where Entered For $12,500 Or Less NotConsidered In Allowances). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) - Pick 5 (Races 1-5)
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

100.0000	6	Matrooh(b+)	5/2	Mena M	Montano. Sr. Angel O.	EW
098.4914	5	All About Ashley	5/2	Canchari A L	Ortiz John Alexander	L
096.7193	3	Testy Kitten	8-1	Cannon D	Goodman Doug C.	T
095.5220	4	Cowboy Rhythm	9/5	Santana. Jr. R	Asmussen Steven M.	JS
095.3305	2	Pete Marwick	15-1	Landeros C	Dickey Charles L.	FC
094.3008	1	Top of the Page	5-1	Saez G	Garcia Israel J.

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to CD.

6	26.60	1.34	38.46	15	39	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Was Sprint With Route Today
5	7.80	1.16	40.00	10	25	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Morning Line Odds Less Than 4
3	26.60	1.34	38.46	15	39	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Was Sprint With Route Today
4	7.80	1.16	40.00	10	25	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Morning Line Odds Less Than 4
2	44.40	1.26	41.67	35	84	[All Categories] Best Closer
1	8.20	1.09	28.89	13	45	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Actual Post 1

* Dynamic condition may change before the race. Confirm before using stats for top rated horse.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park West

10/30/19, GPW, Race 4, 2.32 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.04 CLAIMING. Purse $17,000.
Claiming Price $6,250 (Races Where Entered For $5,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES
$1 Daily Double / $2 Quiniela / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta - $.50 Bet 3 (Races 4-5-6) / $.50 Pick 5 (Races 4-8) / $1 Super Hi 5
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

100.0000	4	Fourth Design	8-1	Gutierrez R	Baxter Georgina	TW
099.1781	2	He's Smokin Hot(b-)	3-1	Lopez P	Joseph. Jr. Saffie A.	J
097.7626	6	Bondetti	5/2	Rendon J	Dobles Elizabeth L.
097.3973	5	Unnamed Soldier	4-1	Torres C A	Nicks Ralph E.	SF
096.4155	8	Stink Man	8-1	Jaramillo E	Gallegos Jose A.	E
095.9132	9	Dynamic Dancer	15-1	Juarez N	Delgado Gustavo
094.9772	7	Das Da One	10-1	Meneses M	Belsoeur Yvon	L
094.3836	3	Organic Jenny	12-1	Arroyo M	Arrieta Michel	C
093.5616	1	Rattle'm	12-1	Martinez G A	Campos Bernardo

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to GPW.

4	40.00	1.14	38.41	53	138	[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
2	29.80	1.07	36.62	78	213	[All Categories] Last Race Is Not Same Track As Today
6	18.60	1.04	36.75	86	234	[All Categories] Last Race Purse Not Lower Than Today
5	40.00	1.14	38.41	53	138	[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
8	29.80	1.07	36.62	78	213	[All Categories] Last Race Is Not Same Track As Today
9	18.60	1.04	36.75	86	234	[All Categories] Last Race Purse Not Lower Than Today
7	8.20	1.21	40.00	8	20	[All Categories] Last Race Was Different Jockey With A Better Win Percent
3	29.80	1.07	36.62	78	213	[All Categories] Last Race Is Not Same Track As Today
1	24.20	1.17	42.86	30	70	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Horse Not Age 4UP

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nats pound Astros to force Game 7

HOUSTON (AP) Max Scherzer, this is your moment. And baseball fans, this is what you hoped for.

A World Series mostly devoid of drama suddenly involves the two most compelling words in sports: Game 7.

Mad Max, in so much pain over the weekend he could hardly move, starting for the Washington Nationals.

''Everybody has the belief in me and the doctors that I could get right and be ready,'' Scherzer said.

Zack Greinke, acquired by Houston in late July for exactly these situations, pitching for the Astros.

''A little excited about it at the moment, but we'll see,'' Greinke said.

The wild-card Nationals, trying to rewrite franchise history with their first championship. The 107-win Astros, aiming to build a legacy by taking their second crown in three years.

''Maybe not how we drew it up in terms of how we got there, but it doesn't take away the opportunity we have to win the World Series,'' Astros manager AJ Hinch said.

A pair of teams that began spring training under sunny skies in February, working out side-by-side in the complex they share in Florida, now meeting in late October under the retractable roof at Minute Maid Park for the biggest prize of all.

And this: What to expect from Scherzer on Wednesday night?

Unable to pitch Game 5 on Sunday night because of nerve irritation near his neck that required a cortisone shot, the three-time Cy Young Award winner is set to start this all-or-nothing showdown.

''The cortisone shot worked. That relieved the pressure on the nerve,'' Scherzer said.

Scherzer tossed in the outfield before Game 6 - a charged, 7-2 win by the Nationals - and even loosened up in the bullpen in the seventh inning Tuesday night.

''Max is starting tomorrow,'' manager Dave Martinez said. ''We got him up knowing that if the game is tied or we were up a run we might have to use him. He wanted to go down there and just throw and get loose. We scored some more runs and I immediately shut him down.''

Whether the Game 1 winner, known for his incredible intensity, will be able to cut loose at full force, we'll soon see.

''We don't know if he's healthy or not. We're going to find out in the first inning,'' Astros star Carlos Correa said.

If Scherzer returns and wins, it might well go down in sports lore, along with Curt Schilling's bloody sock, Kirk Gibson hobbling around the bases and the night Willis Reed limped back on the court at Madison Square Garden.

''They'd probably make a movie about it. I bet, if he could, he could come back from the dead,'' teammate Adam Eaton said.

The Nationals rallied to extend the only World Series where the road team has taken the six first games. So much for the home-field advantage.

''Doesn't look like there is one right now, but I hope there's one tomorrow. We're waiting until the last game to have it on our side,'' Hinch said.

Everyone available, probably.

Astros ace Gerrit Cole, certainly. And maybe Justin Verlander after going five innings Tuesday night.

''It's a Game 7, all hands on deck. If AJ asks, I'm sure I'll figure out a way,'' Verlander said.

Houston played in the previous Game 7 of the World Series, when George Springer and crew hammered Los Angeles at Dodger Stadium in 2017.

Road teams took the two prior Game 7s, too - Joe Maddon's Cubs at Cleveland in 2016 and Madison Bumgarner and the Giants at Kansas City in 2014.

Greinke gave up one run over 4 2/3 innings in his first World Series start when the Astros took Game 3. Acquired from Arizona at the trade deadline, the six-time All-Star is 0-2 with a 5.30 ERA in four starts this postseason.

Did he ever imagine pitching a Game 7?

''Probably, but can't remember doing that at the moment,'' he said.

Healthy, Scherzer went 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA this postseason in four starts and one relief appearance.

No time to dwell on those stats. His biggest start is looming.

''That's what you live for,'' he said. ''For me, I need to get in my pregame routine right now, and that's where I'm at mentally, here we go.''

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Wednesday, October 30


Washington @ Houston

Game 913-914
October 30, 2019 @ 8:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
(Scherzer) 18.847r
Houston
(Greinke) 17.803
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-135
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+115); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, October 30

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (104 - 74) at HOUSTON (117 - 62) - 8:08 PM
MAX SCHERZER (R) vs. ZACK GREINKE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 100-86 (-18.1 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
GREINKE is 153-83 (+47.3 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 117-60 (+39.1 Units) against the money line in home games in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 23-7 (+14.9 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
WASHINGTON is 104-74 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 11-5 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in October games this season.
WASHINGTON is 38-27 (+11.0 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters this season.
WASHINGTON is 11-5 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in playoff games this season.
WASHINGTON is 58-49 (+7.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
WASHINGTON is 36-25 (+14.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
HOUSTON is 11-14 (-18.4 Units) against the money line when playing on Wednesday this season.
HOUSTON is 79-51 (-25.0 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 76-50 (-11.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
HOUSTON is 71-53 (-19.3 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 98-78 (-20.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 23-24 (-21.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-3 (+1.8 Units) against HOUSTON this season
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.8 Units)

MAX SCHERZER vs. HOUSTON since 1997
SCHERZER is 4-1 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 3.72 and a WHIP of 1.065.
His team's record is 5-2 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-3. (+0.7 units)

ZACK GREINKE vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
GREINKE is 6-1 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 1.32 and a WHIP of 0.929.
His team's record is 8-2 (+5.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-9. (-8.7 units)