Saturday 11-2-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Arthur Ralph

FREE play SAT SO Carolina -15

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Vegas Steam Line

Your free winner for Saturday: SOUTH CAROLINA -15½ over Vanderbilt

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High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Early Saturday: Bowling Green Falcons - 5

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Kenny Towers

Your Free Pick for Saturday: Memphis -6

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

Camarero - Race 5	Pick 3 (5-7) / Exacta / Trifecta / Quinella / Superfecta / Daily Double 5-6
Claiming $4,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 4:30P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON $8,000 SINCE FEBRUARY 2, 2019 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 17, 2019 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 2, 2019 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 2, 2019 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * WOODBURN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SUNSET CATCH: Horse has the highest TrackM aster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. VIRTUE AND VICE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
7	WOODBURN	8/5	7/2
4	SUNSET CATCH	5/2	9/2
3	VIRTUE AND VICE	3/1	5/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	WOODBURN	7	8/5	Stalker	75	69	62.2	70.4	65.4
10	BEST CONCERT	10	6/1	Stalker	73	65	49.2	60.4	48.4
4	SUNSET CATCH	4	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	84	77	44.1	70.8	64.8
3	VIRTUE AND VICE	3	3/1	Trailer	77	62	33.4	72.4	69.4
2	SEQUANA	2	20/1	Alternator/Trailer	68	78	7.7	49.0	35.0
5	TRI COTTON	5	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	69	23.0	32.4	20.4
8	CAPTAIN KITT	8	7/5	Alternator/Non-contender	62	55	21.8	47.8	33.8
1	EVER YOUNG	1	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	21.6	45.8	30.8
6	BOY CUT	6	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	47	46	19.8	45.8	28.8
9	GADSBY TAVERN	9	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	89	83	0.0	9.5	1.0

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park West

Gulfstream Park West - Race 10	$1 Exacta / $2 Quiniela / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5
Maiden Claiming $35,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 82 • Purse: $26,000 • Post: 5:44P
FOR STATE BRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $35,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * BILLY BONES: A first time starter with a trainer that has a return on investment with fir st time starters of at least +50 (minimum 10 starts). POZNAN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. TOVAR Y TOVAR: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating . Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SILVER CONNECTION: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
3	BILLY BONES	6/1	5/1
8	POZNAN	5/2	6/1
4	TOVAR Y TOVAR	8/1	6/1
2	SILVER CONNECTION	10/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	TOVAR Y TOVAR	4	8/1	Front-runner	83	50	68.2	55.6	50.6
8	POZNAN	8	5/2	Front-runner	70	60	59.1	57.7	53.2
2	SILVER CONNECTION	2	10/1	Alternator/Trailer	83	81	60.0	52.1	46.1
10	CAT GONE QUICK	10	30/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	49.3	31.3	21.8
5	WITH VERVE	5	10/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	0.0	45.5	39.0
6	DR G'S HOPE	6	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	7.6	24.6	15.1

Unknown Running Style: VOLUNTEER NAVY (9/2) [Jockey: Sanchez Jeffrey - Trainer: Nicks Ralph E], BILLY BONES (6/1) [Jockey: Torres Cristian A - Trainer: Crichton Rohan], ENANO ASTRAY (20/1) [Jockey: Gonzalez Santiago - Trainer: Mejia Jaime], CAPITAN F

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $15500 Class Rating: 61

FOR REGISTERED PA-BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 2 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000, IF FOR $7,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 FINDER ANGEL R V F 8/1
# 7 ORENDA 6/1
# 3 DAMISELA 9/2

FINDER ANGEL R V F looks to be a respectable contender and is a very good value bet given the line. This horse has to be in sound condition coming back to race so quickly. ORENDA - Could best this field based on the Equibase Speed Figure - 60 - of her last affair. Have to sense that this horse will make a good impression following the quick return. DAMISELA - She looks strong in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the halfway point.

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Lone Star Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $6300 Class Rating: 75

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR TEXAS ACCREDITED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 CRAWFISH CARTEL 6/5
# 7 ZOOMIN TD 10/1
# 4 BUYING PEARLS 5/2

CRAWFISH CARTEL has a quite good shot to take this race. Boasts sound speed figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this group. Had one of the best speed figures of this group in his last contest. Is tough not to examine given the company run in recently. ZOOMIN TD - With Zuniga getting the mount, watch out for this horse. The average Equibase class figure of 56 makes this one difficult to beat. BUYING PEARLS - Is a strong contender based on figs recorded lately under today's conditions. Will more than likely be one of the leaders of the pack going into the halfway point of the race.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Churchill Downs - Race #5 - Post: 4:36pm - Optional Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $105,000 Class Rating: 112

Rating:

#7 PIONEER SPIRIT (ML=5/2)
#2 GUEST SUITE (ML=15/1)


PIONEER SPIRIT - 'Bridge' and Cox have had terrific success together over the last twelve months. This horse likes to be near the lead. Today's race is a shorter trip and should promote his chances. GUEST SUITE - When the real running starts, this gelding should be flying down the lane. The jock and trainer combination have a beneficial ROI when they join forces. I like that latest outing on Oct 5th at Keeneland where he ran third.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 THIRSTFORLIFE (ML=3/1), #1 C Z ROCKET (ML=4/1), #6 MR DARCY (ML=5/1),

THIRSTFORLIFE - Don't think that this gelding has value at 3/1 this time around. C Z ROCKET - Finished fourth in his most recent race with a run-of-the-mill speed rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this bunch. May bounce off of that last physical exertion. MR DARCY - Tough to back since I think a 'performance bounce' is in the works in today's event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #7 PIONEER SPIRIT to win if you can get at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Aqueduct

11/02/19, AQU, Race 5, 2.05 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.07.03 CLAIMING. Purse $28,000.
Claiming Price $10,000 (Maiden and Claiming races for $8,000 or less not considered in allowances) (1. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (5-7), Empire 6 Races (5-10) - Double
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

100.0000	8	The Forty Factor	8-1	Carroll D	Breen Kelly J.	TSFL
097.6157	1	Getoffmyback	8/5	Alvarado J	Atras Rob	J
095.1438	9	H Man	10-1	Richards G	Contessa Gary C.	E
094.9158	7	Gorelli	10-1	Davis D	Bond H. James
094.6704	10	Sir Ballantine	10-1	Diaz. Jr. H R	Chatterpaul Naipaul
094.1971	6	Professor Snape	9/2	Hernandez H	Rodriguez Rudy R.
093.7062	4	Javelin	8-1	Cancel E	Toscano. Jr. John T.	C
092.9698	2	Brimstone	12-1	Hernandez B	Toscano. Jr. John T.
091.1115	3	Toohottoevenspeak	15-1	Harkie H K	Tournas Peter	W
091.0589	5	Lord Simba	12-1	Vargas. Jr. J A	Sciacca Gary

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to AQU.

8	11.50	1.09	41.54	27	65	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *2nd Horse 97 Rating With 100.0000 Top Horse
1	11.50	1.09	41.54	27	65	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *2nd Horse 97 Rating With 100.0000 Top Horse
9	11.50	1.09	41.54	27	65	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *2nd Horse 97 Rating With 100.0000 Top Horse
7	11.50	1.09	41.54	27	65	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *2nd Horse 97 Rating With 100.0000 Top Horse
10	15.80	1.08	35.79	34	95	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Last Race (Sprint or Route) Not Same As Today
6	11.50	1.09	41.54	27	65	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *2nd Horse 97 Rating With 100.0000 Top Horse
4	11.50	1.09	41.54	27	65	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *2nd Horse 97 Rating With 100.0000 Top Horse
2	11.50	1.09	41.54	27	65	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *2nd Horse 97 Rating With 100.0000 Top Horse
3	15.80	1.08	35.79	34	95	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Last Race (Sprint or Route) Not Same As Today
5	11.50	1.09	41.54	27	65	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *2nd Horse 97 Rating With 100.0000 Top Horse

* Dynamic condition may change before the race. Confirm before using stats for top rated horse.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Santa Anita - Race #7 - Post: 1:54pm - Stakes - 10.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $2,000,000 Class Rating: 119 Maker's Mark Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Grade 1)

Rating:

#7 VASILIKA (ML=8/1)
#3 FLEETING (IRE) (ML=6/1)
#2 SISTERCHARLIE (IRE) (ML=8/5)
#9 VILLA MARINA (GB) (ML=8/1)
#10 MRS. SIPPY (ML=8/1)


VASILIKA - This mare is a gem of consistency, almost always on the board. Had a solid closing move last time out, running the last quarter in less than 25 seconds. A similar performance today, and it's straight to the winner's circle. PP data show this thoroughbred with 3 improving speed ratings. Prat should be on a live horse in today's race. FLEETING (IRE) - Finished fourth at ASC last out. Was close at the end and at odds of 6/1 in this field, she looks like a possible contender. O'Brien brings her back again. I propose you stick with this strong filly. When a pony drops at least 5 pounds (like this one is), you must take notice. It may not seem like much, but should help. Compare today's class (119) with last 3 speeds (121, 121, 119). All three speed figures are good enough to win. SISTERCHARLIE (IRE) - This mare is in exceptional condition right now. Ran first last out and comes back quickly. This horse likes to win on different tracks. The switch in venue today may be a wake up call. I like this mare. Has the uppermost earnings per race in this contest. VILLA MARINA (GB) - A filly like this one, almost always in the top three, usually makes an excellent trifecta key horse. I really like that most recent race on October 6th at LCH where she finished first. This filly has showed signs of class at major foreign tracks, and ships in for today's race. Could be tough to beat. This filly has impressed last two times out posting solid Equibase speed figs. With a repeat performance, she'll probably be the victor. MRS. SIPPY - Motion moves this horse here to Santa Anita from Belmont Park. Looking at the horse's past performance lines, she has shown the ability to win at different tracks. Have to give this filly a good chance. Ran a sharp outing last time out within the last month. Although this filly has limited experience around here, she has showed her class by running well at a major foreign venue.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 IRIDESSA (IRE) (ML=8/1),

IRIDESSA (IRE) - Just don't figure that she is pegged at the proper price at the probable odds.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - SISTERCHARLIE (IRE) - You can rest easy wagering on a very consistent horse. This mare is as consistent as they come.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #7 VASILIKA on top if we're getting at least 6/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,7] Box [7,9] Box [7,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	[2,3,7] with [2,3,7,9,10] with [2,3,7,9,10] Total Cost: $36
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[3,7] with [2,3,7] with [2,3,7,9,10] with [2,3,7,9,10] Total Cost: $24
SUPER HI-5 WAGERS:	[2,3,7] with [2,3,7,9,10] with [2,3,7,9,10] with [2,3,7,9,10] with [2,3,7,9,10] Total Cost: $72

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Santa Anita Park

11/02/19, SA, Race 12, 5.44 PT
1 1/4M [Dirt] 1.57.04 STAKES. Purse $6,000,000.
Grade 1
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta - Jackpot Super Hi-5 / Head2Head
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

100.0000	8	McKinzie	3-1	Rosario J	Baffert Bob	SW
098.8715	10	Vino Rosso	4-1	Ortiz. Jr. I	Pletcher Todd A.
098.2132	7	Higher Power	6-1	Prat F	Sadler John W.	J
097.0063	6	Elate	6-1	Ortiz J L	Mott William I.
096.9279	3	Owendale	15-1	Castellano J	Cox Brad H.	T
096.8495	11	Code of Honor	4-1	Velazquez J R	McGaughey III Claude R	FE
096.7241	9	Mongolian Groom	12-1	Cedillo A	Ganbat Enebish
095.9561	1	Math Wizard	30-1	Santana. Jr. R	Joseph. Jr. Saffie A.
095.6426	4	War of Will(b+)	20-1	Gaffalione T	Casse Mark E.	L
095.1881	5	Yoshida (JPN)	8-1	Smith M E	Mott William I.	C
094.4671	2	Seeking the Soul	20-1	Hernandez. Jr. B J	Stewart Dallas

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to SA.

8	121.20	1.11	34.18	188	550	[All Categories] Last Race Is Same Track As Today
10	74.30	1.09	31.55	130	412	[All Categories] Race Distance Route
7	121.20	1.11	34.18	188	550	[All Categories] Last Race Is Same Track As Today
6	91.40	1.33	40.00	56	140	[All Dirt] Not Third Race After 45 Days Off
3	74.30	1.09	31.55	130	412	[All Categories] Race Distance Route
11	74.30	1.09	31.55	130	412	[All Categories] Race Distance Route
9	121.20	1.11	34.18	188	550	[All Categories] Last Race Is Same Track As Today
1	74.30	1.09	31.55	130	412	[All Categories] Race Distance Route
4	74.30	1.09	31.55	130	412	[All Categories] Race Distance Route
5	74.30	1.09	31.55	130	412	[All Categories] Race Distance Route
2	121.20	1.11	34.18	188	550	[All Categories] Last Race Is Same Track As Today

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus

Nov 02 '19, 12:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | Northern Illinois vs Central Michigan
Play on: UNDER 50½ -110

1* Free Sharp Play on Northern Illinois vs Central Michigan under 50½ -110
My money is on the UNDER 50.5 in Saturday's MAC matchup that has Central Michigan hosting Northern Illinois. I think we are seeing a much higher total than we should be given the Chippewas recent offensive outbursts, but those have come against bad defenses. Northern Illinois just shutout Akron last time out and while the Huskies are just 3-5 overall, they have played an absolutely brutal schedule. UNDER is 10-2 in their last 12 after giving up 6 points or fewer and 9-3 in Central Michigan's last 12 after allowing 40 or more and 14-5 in their last 19 offa a loss. BET THE UNDER 50.5!

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Brandon Lee

Nov 02 '19, 12:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | NC State vs Wake Forest
Play on: Wake Forest -7 -114 at pinnacle

10* FREE NCAAF PICK (Wake Forest -7)
I think the fact that NC State is turning to redshirt freshman Devin Leary at quarterback could spark some interest in the Wolfpack, especially given that he threw for 259 yards and 3 scores in relief of Bailey Hockman in NC State’s last game against BC.
However, I don’t think the switch will be enough for the Wolfpack to make a game of it on the road against this Demon Deacons team. The big thing to note with Leary’s numbers against the Eagles is that he completed less than 50% of his attempts, going 15 of 33. You also have to take into consideration that it came against a pretty bad Boston College defense.
In the two games prior, NC State managed just 16 points against Syracuse and 13 against Florida State. Neither of those teams are anything special on defense. Also, the Wolfpack have shown little ability to run the ball against better teams.
Simply put, I thinking it’s asking too much of Leary to go score-for-score with this potent Wake Forest offense, especially considering how good the Demon Deacons passing attack has been and how poor NC State’s pass defense has been. Wake Forest has thrown for 300+ yards in 3 of their last 4 games, while the Wolfpack defense has given up 300+ in 3 of their last 4. They did hold BC to just 106 yards passing, but the Eagles also attempted just 15 passes, in large part because they rushed for 429 yards.
NC State is a mere 1-8 ATS last 9 games they have played against a team that is averaging 31 or more points/game and have failed to cover 7 straight against an offense that is averaging more than 450 yards/game. Wake Forest is averaging 37.1 ppg and 524 ypg. Give me the Demon Deacons -7.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

Nov 02 '19, 12:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | Nebraska vs Purdue
Play on: Nebraska -3½ -109 at GTBets

Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Nebraska -3.5
It’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on the Nebraska Cornhuskers now. No team got more hype coming into the season than Nebraska. They have grossly failed to live up to expectations, going 4-4 SU & 1-7 ATS. It has been equal parts poor performance and injuries for this team. We saw them start slow last season and finish strong, and I think they will do the same thing again this year.
Now, the Huskers get a big boost with the return of QB Adrian Martinez from a knee injury. Martinez got hurt against Northwestern and the Huskers went on to lose their next two games against Minnesota and Indiana. But they are a completely different offense with Martinez under center. Look for the Huskers to hang a big number on a soft Purdue defense this week.
Speaking of injuries, no team has been hit harder by them in the Big Ten than Purdue. The Boilermakers remain without QB Elijah Sindelar and WR Rondale Moore, their two best players. And they have injuries all over their defense and along the offensive line, as well as cluster injuries at receiver. It’s no surprise the Boilermakers are just 1-5 SU in their last six games overall with their only win coming against a bad Maryland team at home. They lost to a bad Illinois team 6-24 at home last week as well.
Nebraska is 30-12 ATS in their last 42 games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their last six games coming in. The Huskers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Huskers get back in the win column this weekend behind Martinez. Bet Nebraska Saturday.