Sunday 11-3-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RALPH MICHAELS

Event: (469) Cleveland Browns at (470) Denver Broncos
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: November 3, 2019 4PM EST
Play: Total Under 39.5 (-110)

#469/#470 UNDER 39.5 Cleveland at Denver

What was t be one the most dynamic offenses in the NFL has been a dud as Baker Mayfield with the addition of Odell Beckham is averaging just 19 PPG and if you take out the Baltimore game the number falls to 15.5. The Browns have also averaged just 16 FD’s per game on the road. No team in the NFL has had more under of late then the Denver Broncos who are 1-15-1 O/U their last 17 games. Denver’s offense was bad enough under Flacco avg 16 PPG, 313 YPG and 18 FD’s/gm and know with the injury Brandon Allen is making his first start. Remember Allen wasn’t even with the team this pre-season as he was claimed off waivers on September 1st for the Rams. Denver will run the ball and slow the pace and this game stays Under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gridiron Angles - Week 9
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Panthers are 13-0 ATS (9.35 ppg) since Dec 09, 2012 at home coming off a road game where they rushed for at least 100 yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Dolphins are 0-11 ATS (-8.32 ppg) since Dec 29, 2013 off a road game in which they had less than 26 minutes of possession time.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Raiders are 9-0-2 OU (7.77 ppg) since Nov 01, 2015 when Derek Carr threw at least two touchdowns on the road last game.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:
-- Teams which have won by double digits in 4+ straight games are 65-51 OU. Active win Minnesota and New England.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Chargers are 0-10-1 OU (-8.27 ppg) since Nov 22, 2010 at home coming off a win where they allowed at least 100 rushing yards.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Raiders are 10-0 OU (12.90 ppg) since Sep 23, 2007 as a home favorite playing a team scoring at least 24 points per game.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Colts are 0-10 ATS (-17.95 ppg) on the road vs a non-divisional opponent after a win in which they came back from a deficit.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Total Talk - Week 9
Joe Williams

It's Week 9 of the National Football League regular season, as we'll be past the halfway points after this weekend and heading for the home stretch. We have a return of several divisional matchups, an intriguing battle over in London for the final game of the season from England, as well as a potentially thrilling battle on Sunday Night Football betwee the New England Patriots-Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium in Charm City.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 8 6-9 8-7 6-9
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 55-65-1 56-64-1 54-63-4

The betting public struck back in Week 8 with some small gains after getting dusted by the books in the previous three weekends. Last week we saw nine under results and six over results, which is generally a win for the books.

Heading into Sunday's London game between the Houston Texans-Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley Stadium, you might want to think 'over' in the UK matchups. The high side has gone 2-1 in the three games from England this season and that includes a 2-0 mark at the two battle at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, while the under hit in last week's Wembley game. We note that because that's the same venue as this weekend's battle.

Bettors looking for points in the second-half in Week 9 were not rewarded as the 'under' produced a 9-6 mark in the final 30 minutes. Through 121 games this season, the 'under' sits at 65-55-1 on the season and the low side also holds slight edges in both wagers for the first-half (64-56-1) and second-half (63-54-4).

Division Bell

We had no division battles in Week 8, so we take a look back at the previous week. There were a total of five divisional battles in Week 7, and the winning team in each game had more than 30 points in each outing. However, the losing team averaging just 12 points per game in those contests, with only Miami and Houston scoring more than 11 points. The under is now 23-12 (65.7%) in divisional games this season.

Divisional Game Results Week 7
Kansas City at Denver Under (49.5) Kansas City 30, Denver 6
Houston at Indianapolis Over (46.5) Indianapolis 30, Houston 23
Miami at Buffalo Over (42) Buffalo 31, Miami 21
Philadelphia at Dallas Under (50) Dallas 37, Philadelphia 10
New England at N.Y. Jets Under (43) New England 33, N.Y. Jets 0

London Totals

We have had three total games in London to date, with the first two games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium cashing over tickets, while last week's battle between the Rams and Bengals hit the under. The Rams didn't exactly light the world afire offensively, and the Bengals were...well...the Bengals. They're winless for a reason. This week's game features a potent offense from the Texans, and a subpar defense. For the Jaguars, they have also moved the ball quite well while checking in with a middling defense.

The Texans will be playing in their first game in England, although they have been involved in an International Series game, falling 27-20 to the Oakland Raiders at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City on Nov. 21, 2016, a game which hit the 'over'.

For the Jaguars, London has been a home away from home. This will be their seventh appearance in England, hitting the 'over' in five of the six battles. Last season's Week 7 battle against the Eagles was their first 'under' overseas, and that cashed just barely. In their only AFC South Division battle in London, they topped the Colts 30-27 on Oct. 2, 2016 for an 'over' result.

London Results - Past Nine Games
Week 8 - 2019 - Cincinnati vs. L.A. Rams Under (48) L.A. Rams 24, Cincinnati 10
Week 6 - 2019 - Carolina vs. Tampa Bay Over (47.5) Carolina 37, Tampa Bay 26
Week 5 - 2019 - Chicago vs. Oakland Over (40) Oakland 24, Chicago 21
Week 7 - 2018 - Philadelphia vs. Jacksonville Under (44.5) Philadelphia 24, Jacksonville 18
Week 6 - 2018 - Tennessee vs. L.A. Chargers Under (46) L.A. Chargers 20, Tennessee 19
Week 5 - 2018 - Seattle vs. Oakland Under (48) Seattle 27, Oakland 3
Week 8 - 2017 - Minnesota vs. Cleveland Over (38.5) Minnesota 33, Cleveland 16
Week 7 - 2017 - Arizona vs. L.A. Rams Under (45.5) L.A. Rams 33, Arizona 0
Week 4 - 2017 - New Orleans vs. Miami Under (51.5) New Orleans 20, Miami 0
Week 3 - 2017 - Baltimore vs. Jacksonville Over (38.5) Jacksonville 44, Baltimore 7

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 8 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Cleveland at Denver: 43 to 39
Chicago at Philadelphia: 45 to 41 ½
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: 43 ½ to 40 ½
Green Bay at L.A. Chargers: 46 to 48 ½
New England at Baltimore (SNF): 46 ½ to 44 ½
Tennessee at Carolina: 40 to 42
Minnesota at Kansas City: 46 to 48

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 8 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Green Bay at L.A. Chargers: Over 96%
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: Under 91%
Tennessee at Carolina: Over 87%
Houston at Jacksonville (London): Over 83%
Dallas at N.Y. Giants (MNF): Over 79%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (72 percent) in the N.Y. Jets-Miami matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in New England-Baltimore (67 percent) battle on Sunday Night Football.

Handicapping Week 9

Week 8 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 0-0 13-22
NFC vs. NFC 2-3 14-14
AFC vs. AFC 1-4 11-10-1
AFC vs. NFC 3-2 18-18

Other Week 9 Action

Houston at Jacksonville (9:30 a.m. ET - London): The Texans will play in their first game in England, and just their second international game to date. The 'over' hit in their only previous non-United States battle. For the Texans, they have scored 23 or more points in each of their past four games, and they just missed the under by a half-point or point at most shops last week against the Raiders. Since tuning up Atlanta on Oct. 6 the Texans are averaging a robust 33.3 points per game across the past four, while allowing 24 or more points (32, 24, 30, 24) during the span. While that's all well and good, remember these players to a 13-12 battle in Houston back in Week 2, with the Texans coming out on top.

Tennessee at Carolina: The Titans hit the 'under' in five of their first six games, including a shutout loss Oct. 13 in Denver. They elected to make a change from QB Marcus Mariota to QB Ryan Tannehill, and so far the move is paying off over the former Dolphins' past two outings. After averaging just 11.0 PPG in five outings from Week 2 through Week 6, the Titans have posted 23 and 27 in a pair of wins and 'over' results. The Panthers hit the over in last week's game in San Francisco, but it was mostly the doing of the 49ers. They were dumped 51-13 in a crazy loss for the defense, which has allowed 27, 26 and 51 across the past three contests. As expected, the 'over' is a perfect 3-0 in those outings. That's probably part of the reason this total has been on a move, up two points from an open of 40.

Chicago at Philadelphia: The Bears have dropped three in a row entering play in this one, now they get to face old buddy RB Jordan Howard and the equally hungry Eagles. The Bears have scored 16 or more points in six straight, and they're averaging 19 PPG across the past three. The 'over' is 2-1 in the past three games because the defense has gone south lately, mainly because the offense cannot stay on the field and the defense is likely getting worn down. Chicago's vaunted defense allowed 11.3 PPG over the first four outings, but they have yielded 25.7 PPG across the past three. Philly will be returning home after three straight road games which saw the 'over' hit in two battles, including last week's 31-13 win at Buffalo. Philly has hit for 20 or more points in seven of the first eight games, and they rank 21st in the NFL, allowing 24.9 PPG.

Minnesota at Kansas City: The Vikings offense sputtered last Thursday night in a 19-9 win over the Redskins, a big departure from their previous three games of production. In their past three Sunday battles the Vikings were averaging 36.0 PPG while allowing 20.0 PPG. Against the Chiefs, they'll need to be on point. Even with backup QB Matt Moore in for the injured QB Patrick Mahomes (kneecap) last week, the Chiefs posted 24 points in the first 'over' of the season on Sunday Night Football. The 'over' is 3-1 for Kansas City at home, and 2-0 against the NFC North Division so far this season.

N.Y. Jets at Miami: The one-win Jets and winless Dolphins lock horns at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday with draft position on the line. The Dolphins have resembled an NFL caliber offense over the past three games since a bye, averaging 17.0 PPG, which isn't much, but is much greater than the 6.5 PPG they averaged in the first four games Still, the 'under' is 3-0 in the past three home games for the Dolphins. The Jets have averaged just 7.5 PPG over the past two games, and the 'under' is a perfect 3-0 in three games against AFC East Division foes this season, posting 16, 14 and 0 in those three contests.

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: The Colts offense stumbled against the Broncos sturdy defense last week, but they still won. However, they'll need more than 15 points if they want to top the Steelers on the road. Indianapolis has hit the 'under' in their past three road outings, and they're averaging just 20.7 PPG in three games away from home, including 19 and 19 in the past two regulation games, both 'under' results. The Steelers defense has been better over the past four games, although they hae played a pair of winless teams and a toothless Chargers offense during the span. Still, the 'under is 4-1 over their past five outings. The offense has scored 20 or more points in six straight despite some injury woes.

Detroit at Oakland: The Lions rank fifth in the NFL in passing yards per game, posting 282.7 yards, and they're 31st in total yards allowed (420.4) and 32nd in the NFL against the pass (289.7). Detroit has allowed 23 or more points in five straight games, and six of the seven overall, hitting the 'over' in four of the past five, and five of seven. Defense also isn't a strong suit for the Raiders, as they're 31st against the pass (288.0). Look for QBs Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr to hook up in a shootout, and subsequently plenty of points.

Tampa Bay at Seattle: The Buccaneers roll in on a 5-0 'over' run, posting 31, 55, 24, 26 and 23 across their past five games on offense, while allowing 32, 40, 31, 37 and 27 on defense during the same span. Tampa Bay's games have looked like college scores, and the Seahawks have to be licking their chops. The Seahawks have hit the 'over' in each of their past three home games, averaging 24.3 PPG on offense while yielding 27.3 PPG during the three-game span.

Cleveland at Denver: The Browns were expected to be a juggernaut on offense, but they have struggled with consistency, turnovers and discipline through the first seven outings. They hit the 'under' last week in New England, and the under is 3-1 in four games away from the shores of Lake Erie this season. They're averaging 19.0 PPG in four road games, and those numbers are skewed a bit due to a 40-point outburst in Baltimore on Sept. 29. In their three 'under' results the Browns are posting just 13.0 PPG. The Broncos make a change to QB Brandon Allen for the injured QB Joe Flacco (neck). The Broncos have struggled mightily on offense, averaging just 11.7 PPG over the past three, and 15.0 PPG in four outings at home, hitting the 'under' in three games at Mile High.

Green Bay at L.A. Chargers: The Packers offense has been on fire, posting 23 or more points in six straight outings, cashing the 'over' in five of those outings. That including a 3-0 record against three previous AFC West clubs. They're averaging 33.4 PPG in three meetings against AFC West teams this season while allowing 21.4 PPG in this battles. The Chargers have been the complete opposite, hitting the 'under' in six of the past seven, including 2-0 vs. NFC North teams. The 'under' is also 3-0 in the past three at home.

Heavy Expectations

There are just one game listed with a spread of double-digit points for Week 9, with the home team listed as favorites. The total is 36.5 and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.

Washington at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. ET): The Redskins play their fifth game this season as a double-digit underdog. They have scored a total of 16 points (5.3 PPG) across their past three as a double-digit 'dog, and they have hit the under in five in a row overall. Washington will be using rookie QB Dwayne Haskins in his first NFL start, and he can't be any worse after the offense totaled nine points in the past two games. The Bills hit the 'over' in their only previous game this season as a double-digit favorite in Week 7, and the 'over' is 2-0 in their past two games at home.

Under the Lights

New England at Baltimore (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Sunday Night Football battle will be much anticipated, and the SNF game saw the 'over' hit last week after an 8-0 'under' run to start. This game might be a return to the under. New England's defense has been sick, allowing just 234.0 total yards per game and 7.6 PPG to rank No. 1 in each category, while allowing 85.2 rushing yards per outing. That will be put to the test with the dynamic QB Lamar Jackson. The Ravens are averaging 204.1 rushing yards per game to lead the NFL, with Jackson good for a team-high 576 yards on the ground. They're averaging 30.6 PPG to rank No. 2 in points scored, too, so they'll be the biggest challenge for New England's defense to date.

Dallas at N.Y. Giants (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Cowboys and Giants square off Monday night in New Jersey. The 'over' is 6-1 in the past seven divisional games for the Cowboys, while going 12-3-1 in their past 16 games following a bye week. It's the complete opposite, with the under hitting in four in a row for the Giants, and 4-1 in their past five appearances on MNF. However, the over is 11-5-1 in the past 17 meetings in New Jersey. Remember, RB Saquon Barkley is back from injury to help spur the offense along.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday Blitz - Week 9
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Titans at Panthers (-3 ½, 42) – 1:00 PM EST
Tennessee (4-4 SU, 3-4-1 ATS) is right back in the AFC South race after picking up consecutive home wins over Los Angeles and Tampa Bay. Ryan Tannehill has given the offense a spark at quarterback the last two weeks as the Titans scored 23 and 27 points following a two-week stretch of seven combined points. Granted, both games came down to the end but Tennessee is coming off consecutive wins for the first time this season, while the Titans already own road underdog victories at Cleveland and Atlanta.

The Panthers (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) limp home after getting blasted by the undefeated 49ers last Sunday, 51-13 as 4 ½-point underdogs. Carolina fell into a 27-3 halftime hole as the Panthers saw their four-game winning streak snapped, while quarterback Kyle Allen was intercepted three times. The Panthers had scored 34 points or more in three of their previous four wins, as Carolina returns to Bank of America Stadium for its second home game in the last seven weeks.

Carolina has won six consecutive home games against AFC foes since 2016, while Tennessee is riding a three-game winning streak against NFC squads on the road since last season. The Panthers routed the Titans in Nashville in their previous matchup in 2015 as 3 ½-point favorites, 27-10, as the starting quarterbacks in that game were Cam Newton and Marcus Mariota.

Best Bet: Titans 27, Panthers 24

Vikings (-4, 47) at Chiefs – 1:00 PM EST
The race atop the NFC North continues to be a good one between Green Bay and Minnesota, who are separated by one game heading into Week 9. The Vikings (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) are coming off their fourth straight victory after holding off the feisty Redskins, 19-9 in a Week 8 Thursday night battle as Minnesota failed to cover as 16 ½-point home favorites. Kirk Cousins continues to play well by throwing 10 touchdowns passes in the last four contests, while completing 23-of-26 passes against his former team for 285 yards last week.

The Chiefs (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) will likely be without last season’s MVP Patrick Mahomes for a second straight game after missing last Sunday night’s 31-24 loss to the Packers recovering from a dislocated kneecap. Kansas City has dropped three consecutive home games and last lost three games in a season at Arrowhead Stadium back in 2013. Matt Moore will start at quarterback once again, but the running game has been non-existent by being held to 88 yards or fewer in the last four contests (1-3).

The Vikings lost their first two road games of the season at Green Bay and Chicago, while scoring a total of 22 points in those defeats. Minnesota has rebounded in the past two away victories against the Giants and Lions (granted lesser competition), but the Vikings posted 70 points in those wins. Kansas City’s offense obviously takes a hit without Mahomes, but the Chiefs scored 20 points without the former Texas Tech star in the final three quarters at Denver before putting up 24 against Green Bay.

Best Bet: Vikings 24, Chiefs 20

Buccaneers at Seahawks (-4 ½, 53) – 4:05 PM EST
Tampa Bay (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS) shocked many people in its Week 4 blowout of the NFC Champion Rams, 55-40 as nine-point road underdogs to improve to 2-2. The Buccaneers haven’t won since by dropping three consecutive games, while allowing 31, 37, and 27 points in this stretch. The most recent defeat came at Tennessee last Sunday as two-point underdogs in a 27-23 setback to drop to 2-2 on the highway. Jameis Winston has been intercepted seven times in the last two games, as the Buccaneers are riding a five-game streak to the OVER.

The Seahawks (6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS) built a 24-0 halftime lead at Atlanta last Sunday before holding off the Falcons, 27-20. Due to the questionable status of Falcons’ quarterback Matt Ryan all week, there wasn’t a line on the game until Ryan was ruled out and Seattle closed as a 7 ½-point favorite. Following that non-cover, the Seahawks fell to 1-5 ATS this season when laying points, which includes an 0-4 ATS mark at CenturyLink Field. Seattle will look to sure up its defense at home as the Seahawks have yielded 33, 29, and 30 points in their last three contests in the Pacific Northwest.

The Bucs have not covered in a loss this season (0-5 ATS), but Tampa Bay owns a 5-1 ATS mark since last season as a road underdog of four points or more. This total is the highest that Seattle has seen this season, as the Seahawks cashed the OVER in all three opportunities on totals of 50 and higher in 2018. Tampa Bay defeated Seattle in the previous matchup at Raymond James Stadium in 2016 as five-point underdogs, 14-5.

Best Bet: Seahawks 30, Buccaneers 20

BEST TOTAL PLAY

UNDER 51 – Lions at Raiders

Oakland is playing at the Coliseum for the first time since Week 2 as the Raiders spent the last five games on the road. In the middle of this stretch, the Silver and Black traveled to London to face the Bears as Oakland finished UNDER the total in its two true home games to start the season. Although that was a long time ago, the Raiders have hit the OVER in four of the last five contests, but are 2-0 to the UNDER in totals of 50 or higher. The Lions’ offense has been hit or miss at time this season, but Detroit scored 30 points or more in three of their last four games. In their highest road total at Green Bay, the Lions finished UNDER the total of 47.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Bears head to Philadelphia in a playoff rematch with the Eagles as Chicago tries to end a two-game skid. Teams that lose consecutive home games and hit the road are worth a strong look since bettors are normally down of them, as that is the case for Chicago. The Eagles blew out the Bills last Sunday, but Philadelphia is 1-2 ATS this season at Lincoln Financial Field, while failing to cash in seven of their past 10 home contests.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The Westgate Superbook released the Broncos as a one-point home favorite against the Browns on October 22, five days before the Week 8 card took place. After the news came down that Broncos’ quarterback Joe Flacco will be sidelined and former Arkansas standout Brandon Allen will make his first NFL start, this line flipped significantly. Cleveland is listed as a 4 ½-point favorite even though the Browns own a 2-5 record and have dropped three consecutive games. Denver has lost three games this season by two points each, all on field goals in the final minute.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Dolphins are seeking their first win of the season. You probably knew that, but Miami has covered in three consecutive games, as the ‘Fins are an underdog once again when the rival Jets invade Hard Rock Stadium. In last season’s two matchups with the Dolphins, Jets’ quarterback Sam Darnold was intercepted six times as New York scored 18 points and was swept by Miami. Of course the Dolphins aren’t the same team as last season, but the Jets enter Sunday’s action with a 1-9 record in their past 10 road contests.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SNF - Patriots at Ravens
Matt Blunt

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The lock on 'overs' in SNF games this year was finally cracked open last week, as the Packers and Chiefs brought the back-and-forth shootout that everyone would have expected from them at the beginning of the year, even if the home side had an understudy taking the place of their star. It was nice to see two NFL teams make the most of their scoring opportunities and cash in with TD's and not FG tries, as there have been too many teams throughout the league that have played too conservative in that spot and/or have kicking issues to boot.

That makes it two straight weeks with relatively easy winners on SNF for this piece, and as we've arrived at November this week I'm looking to make it three in a row.

This week we've got another great game for the SNF crew, as New England visits a Baltimore Ravens team that's always given them fits for the better part of a decade now. Obviously, Belichick and Brady are still there in New England, but Baltimore's going to look much different this time around for New England as QB Lamar Jackson is about as opposite as it gets in terms of their former QB Joe Flacco.

This should be a great test for a Patriots defense that's gotten heaps of praise in recent weeks for all that they've done this year – I think I heard that New England would still be something like 6-2 SU if the offense hadn't scored a single point all year – but context always matters, and is generally forgotten a lot in this industry, and there isn't an offense New England has faced that brings the challenge that Baltimore will bring here. Remember the Ravens have also had two weeks to prepare for this game as well.

With a point spread that will undoubtedly have recreational/public bettors siding with the Patriots and the Ravens being a popular play from the 'sharps', let's get into where your money should be going on Sunday night.

Total Talk

This total opened up at 46 and thanks to about 65% support for the low side, the number has dropped a half-point to stay relatively steady at 45.5 the rest of the way. Given how historically good the Patriots defense has looked in basically every game, you can understand why the 'under' was the first look for the majority, and with Belichick's history of containing and shutting down young QB's by throwing very different looks at them, the 'under' is a reasonable look for sure.

However, I'm not sure many of those young QB's that Patriots teams have owned in the Belichick era have had the dynamic skill set that Lamar Jackson has. His speed can break pretty much any contain their is, and his throwing accuracy (and reads) are getting better and better each week as he's asked to do more in that area. New England will throw some exotic looks at him for sure, and some will likely have some success, but it's not like Baltimore can't adjust to that themselves, and when you've got the best athlete on the field by a wide margin, adjustments just come easier.

At the same time, New England's defense – while worthy of the praise they've gotten from a statistical standpoint – the context in who they've played definitely matters. Yes, I know you can only play who's on the schedule in front of you, but in terms of yards gained per game by the offense, New England's faced the 32nd ranked offense (NYJ) twice, the 31st ranked offense (Miami), the 30th ranked offense (Washington), the 28th ranked offense (Pittsburgh), the 24th ranked offense (NYG), the 20th ranked offense (Cleveland) in a weather-affected game, and the 19th ranked offense (Buffalo). There are only 32 teams in the league so that's about as soft as it gets.

Furthermore, only one of those Patriots opponents comes into Week 9 this week averaging more than 20 points per game, and that's Pittsburgh at 21.4 points per contest. The Jets, Dolphins, and Redskins top out at 12.4 points per game (Washington), while the other three teams – Cleveland, NYG, and Buffalo are all between 19 and 19.8 points per game.

Sure, you could argue that facing New England's defense for at least one of their games contributes to those low numbers, but logic and basic reasoning would tell you that none of those teams are really any good this year (sorry Buffalo fans) at least from an offensive standpoint. That's not the case with Baltimore as they are the only other team – besides the Patriots – that averages over 30 points per game this season (30.6) and that number isn't aided by the plethora of defensive/special teams scores (5) New England has put up this year.

And even if you wanted to look at the other side of things and say, “well Baltimore's numbers are skewed because of the 59 points they put up on Miami” well, they are slightly for sure. But the Ravens have also scored at least 23 points in every game this year, and it's not like New England didn't put up 43 points on Miami themselves.

All that being said, New England has put up 27 or more in all but one of their games – as they should vs the level of opponent they've faced – and I do think they approach that number against Baltimore this week. Tom Brady and company can't be thrilled about all this chatter that the defense has carried the Pats to this 8-0 SU record pretty much by their lonesome, and it's not like you can't put up points on this Ravens defense who have already had games where they've allowed 33 and 40 points too.

At home, Baltimore will get theirs too, as this game could end up looking a lot like last week's SNF game where we get two winning teams trading scores and going blow for blow against one another. After all, maybe last week's 'over' result broke the dam on 'overs' happening in these prime time games and that's really the only way I can look here.

Side Spiel

Reading all of that talk about the total would suggest that I believe taking the points with Baltimore would be the side to look at, and in theory that's probably the case. New England is going to be the 'public' side here, and oddsmakers are probably going to need the Ravens ATS and/or SU to snap a lot of parlays and teaser cards from earlier in the day. But the Patriots make a habit of outperforming their numbers and I'm not willing to step in front of that with a number that's hovering around -3.

Now some will tell you that the 'look ahead line' on this game was New England -6.5 and given that New England covered in those nasty conditions last week and Baltimore didn't play, a 'move' like that is something to weigh heavily. But comparing look ahead lines to what's actually posted during the week, and what ends up being the closing number is one of the biggest shams going.

I say that because that line of thought operates under the assumption that look ahead lines are the “true” or “correct” line on a game, and movements come based on what happens in games the week prior. That's not true at all, and it's why you see so many big moves relative to those early look ahead lines. Plenty of bettors understand how egregious those look ahead lines can be – it's why oddsmakers also take smaller limits on them – and they bet them accordingly. I mean who wouldn't love taking the Ravens at +6.5 right?

That was a bad number and the betting action tells you that. Bettors willing to get out well ahead of the market take advantage of these off-market numbers and then adjust their position accordingly throughout the week when lines settle into place. That doesn't mean that Baltimore is the play now, it means at +6.5 they were well liked by bettors. Nothing more and nothing less. Breaking this game down at the current line of New England -3.5 is a totally different scenario to address outside of what happened in the early markets and it's that concept that ends up getting lost when bettors are discussing what look ahead lines were relative to where they end up going.

And this line of New England -3.5 is arguably right where this line should be in my view, and outside of moving the price tag on the juice for it, chances are it hovers in this range until game time, depending on how much Patriots love comes in from the masses. It's not a play I'd want to touch with either side, but if you are interested in doing something with the side, teasing up the Baltimore Ravens through the key numbers of 7 and even 10 (on a 7-pt teaser) is how I'd look to play it.

Final Thoughts

The side at the current number is not something I'm interested in at all outside of teaser options, but it is the total that does appear to be the better bet. This game has the stench of something like 27-24 written all over it for one of these two teams, although the winner probably needs to hit their average of 30+ points to assure themselves of a victory.

I do expect New England's defense to get “exposed” a bit in the sense that they've put up all these fantastic defensive numbers against the doldrums of the league offensively – Baltimore ranks 2nd in yards gained per game with 434.9.

At the same time, Brady and company on that side of the ball for New England make sure to quiet the noise about their unit being well behind their defense. Baltimore's defense can be had through the air – ranks 26th in passing yards allowed – and it will be that aerial attack that gives New England a chance.

Hopefully those floodgates on 'overs' cashing a few more times in SNF games the rest of the year did open up after last week's result, as we should get two straight SNF 'overs' cashing when all is said and done this week.

Best Bet: Over 45.5 points

[Can'tPickAWinner]

61CALGARY -62 WASHINGTON
CALGARY is 17-8 ATS (10.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

61CALGARY -62 WASHINGTON
BILL PETERS is 17-8 ATS (8.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season (Coach of CALGARY)

63CHICAGO -64 ANAHEIM
ANAHEIM is 3-13 ATS (-14.1 Units) against terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 0.5+ goals/game over the last 2 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL
Dunkel

Sunday, November 3

Calgary @ Washington

Game 61-62
November 3, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Calgary
11.610
Washington
13.231
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 1 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
-170
6 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-170); Over

Chicago @ Anaheim

Game 63-64
November 3, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
11.749
Anaheim
10.614
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Anaheim
-160
6
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+140); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Sunday, November 3

Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Washington Capitals
Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Washington is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games
Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Washington is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games at home
Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Calgary
Washington is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Calgary
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Calgary
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing at home against Calgary
Calgary Flames
Calgary is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Calgary is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Calgary's last 7 games on the road
Calgary is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Washington
Calgary is 7-16-2 SU in its last 25 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing Washington
Calgary is 5-11-2 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington

Anaheim Ducks
Anaheim is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games
Anaheim is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Anaheim's last 10 games
Anaheim is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games at home
Anaheim is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Anaheim's last 6 games when playing Chicago
Anaheim is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago
Chicago Blackhawks
Chicago is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 10 games
Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Chicago's last 23 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Anaheim
Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Anaheim

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BIG AL

Our complimentary selection for Sunday, November 3 is:

Tampa Bay Bucs +5 over Seattle Seahawks.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CAPPERS ACCESS
(NFL)
Vikings
Bears
Raiders
Ravens

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Mejia

#456 Panthers
#458 Eagles
#459 Vikings
#469 Browns
#471 Packers
#474 Ravens

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MARC LAWRENCE
NFL | Nov 03, 2019
Jets vs. Dolphins
Dolphins+3½ -120

Play - Miami Dolphins (Game 462).

Edges - Dolphins: 3-1-1 ATS in this series, and 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in 5th home game of the season … Jets: 0-7 SU and 0-6-1 ATS in 4th away game of the season … We recommend a 1* play on Miami. Thank you and good luck as always.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BRANDON LEE
NFL | Nov 03, 2019
Colts vs. Steelers

10* FREE NFL PICK (Steelers +1)

I'll take my chances with the Steelers at basically a pick'em on the road against the Colts. This is just too good a price to pass up on Pittsburgh at home. Indy comes in with a impressive 5-2 record for a team a lot of people threw under the bus when Andrew Luck retired right before the season started. A win is a win, but you can't overlook just how fortunate the Colts have been this season. Out of their 5 wins, 4 have come by 6 or fewer points and a 7-point win at home against the Texans is their largest margin of victory. They could just as easily be sitting here at 2-5 or 3-4.

Steelers are just 3-4, but those 4 losses have come against the Patriots, Seahawks, 49ers and Ravens. They have won 3 of their last 4 and while the offense definitely misses Big Ben, the defense has been outstanding of late. In their last 3 games they are giving up just 19 ppg and 285 ypg. They have also held 3 of their last 4 opponents to 75 or less rushing yards, the only exception coming against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. I think the Steelers defense will dominate this game at home, while Mason Rudolph and the offense do enough to secure the win. Give me the Steelers +1!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JOSEPH D'AMICO

Sunday's FREE NFL WINNER: Philadelphia Eagles.

Game 458.

10:00 am pst.

Whether it's Trubisky or Daniel at the helm, it won't matter, as the Chicago offense is averaging just 18.3 PPG. Philadelphia, which has won and covered the last four meetings in this series, is back on track after last week's, 31-13 dismantling of the then red-hot, Buffalo squad. WR, Jackson will play here, giving the Eagles another weapon in their arsenal. The Bears are 2-6 ATS the L8 games played overall. take Philadelphia. Thank you.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JACK JONES
NFL | Nov 03, 2019
Jets vs. Dolphins

Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Jets/Dolphins OVER 42

Both the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins have played two of the toughest schedules of opposing defenses in the entire NFL this season. Now, they finally get a shot at the worst defense they have faced all season. Look for both offenses to bust out in this one as this game sails well OVER the posted total of 42 points Sunday.

The Jets have faced a tougher schedule of opposing defenses. They have already played two games against the Patriots, while also going up against the Jaguars, Cowboys, Bills, Browns and Eagles. Those six teams average giving up just 17.4 points per game on the season. It’s no wonder the Jets have had so many problems scoring points, not to mention they’ve been without Sam Darnold for half the season.

The Dolphins have gone up against the Patriots, Cowboys, Ravens, Bills, Steelers, Chargers and Redskins. Those eight teams average giving up just 18.5 points per game. The Dolphins have been much better offensively since switching back to Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. He guided the Dolphins to two late touchdowns against the Redskins, 21 points against the Bills and 14 points against the Steelers.

The Dolphins rank 30th in total defense giving up 414.0 yards per game this season. The Jets are 19th in total defense, allowing 357.4 yards per game. Miami is 32nd in scoring defense, allowing 34.0 points per game. New York is 25th in scoring defense, yielding 26.4 points per game.

The Jets are 6-0 OVER after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games over the past three seasons. The OVER is 6-0 in Jets last six games vs. a team with a losing record. Both offenses will likely put up their best point totals of the season as I expect each team to top 20 points in this one. Bet the OVER Sunday.