Sunday 11-3-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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NFL Week 9 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes is questionable for Sunday's home game against Minnesota. If he plays, The SuperBook expects to set a line of Chiefs -2.5; if he sits, it'll be Vikings -3.5.

To play, or not to play? In NFL Week 9, that is the question surrounding quarterback Patrick Mahomes. We check in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas

Injury Impact

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Mahomes didn’t play in the Week 8 Sunday night game against Green Bay, while recovering from a dislocated kneecap. Matt Moore had a solid outing, but the Chiefs lost 31-24 as 5-point home underdogs. Friday, Mahomes was listed as questionable for a home tilt against the Vikings. The game has been off the board all week, pending some finality on Mahomes. “If he plays, the line will come out around Chiefs -2.5,” Osterman said. “If he’s out, it would be Vikings around -3.5.”

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: A calf injury will keep wideout T.Y. Hilton off the field at Pittsburgh. “That moved the line 1 point. He’s really the Colts’ only big-play weapon, so he means a little bit more than wide receiver on some other teams.” Indianapolis was at +1 Friday afternoon, on a line that spent the week bouncing between pick, -1 and +1.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Running back James Conner (shoulder) is doubtful against the Colts, meaning Jaylen Samuels – who missed the past two games with a knee issue – will shoulder the load. “Not much effect on the line. Samuels is not much of a drop-off from Conner.” The Steelers were 1-point favorites Friday.

DENVER BRONCOS: Quarterback Joe Flacco (neck) is on injured reserve and done for the year. That caused the SuperBook to move from Broncos -1 straight to Browns -2.5 on Monday. “The sharps didn’t beat us to the news. We were on the front end of that move,” Osterman said. “Flacco being out moved the game 3-3.5 points, and then the sharp bets moved it another point-and-a-half.” By early Friday, visiting Cleveland was at -4.5.

GREEN BAY PACKERS: Wideout Davante Adams, out the past month with a toe injury, is listed as questionable on the road against the Chargers, but it appears likely he’ll return. “Adams would be a half-point move if he is confirmed as playing.” The Packers were at -3.5 Friday night.


Weather Watch

WASHINGTON AT BUFFALO: There’s a 40 percent chance of precipitation, with the wind blowing in the mid-teens, but The SuperBook isn’t concerned at this point. “No effect. We don’t see moves for wind unless it’s more than 25 mph, typically.” Buffalo is -10, with a low total of 36.

NEW YORK JETS AT MIAMI DOLPHINS: Scattered thunderstorms are anticipated in the Miami area on Sunday, with a 40 percent chance of rain. But again, no impact yet on the odds. “We won’t move for rain unless it’s actually raining the day of game.” The Jets are -3 against the winless Dolphins, with a total of 42.5.


Pros vs. Joes

NEW ENGLAND AT BALTIMORE: This is a recurring theme with the Patriots. “Pros are all over the Ravens, and the public is all over the Patriots again.” The Patriots opened -5 for the Sunday night game, but that sharp play dropped New England to -3 by Thursday.

TAMPA BAY AT SEATTLE: The Seahawks opened -6 and dipped to -4 by early Friday, before ticking up to -4.5. “The Seahawks are a popular public side this week, but there has been a ton of sharp action on Tampa Bay.”

HOUSTON AT JACKSONVILLE: This AFC South clash opened pick, stretched to Texans -2.5, then backed off to Houston -1.5 by midweek. “The public likes the Texans this week. The sharp side is the Jaguars plus the points.”


Reverse Line Moves

GREEN BAY AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: “We opened Packers -4 and now we’re at -3.5 (even),” Osterman said Friday afternoon. The line actually got as low as Green Bay -2.5 at one point. “We’ve gotten a lot of Packers money, but the market is moving toward the Chargers.”

In addition, Osterman said all three of the Pros vs. Joes games listed above have seen reverse line movement.

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by: Josh Inglis


PIVOT PROBLEMS

The Oakland Raiders have a serious problem with their pivot as backup center Andre James didn’t practice Wednesday. Already without starter Rodney Houston, the Raiders would need Richie Incognito to slide in at center if James can’t ready before Sunday’s game versus the Detroit Lions.

This comes as a bad time for the Silver and Black as the Lions are getting their two starting defensive tackles back for the tilt. Lions’ No.1 corner Darius Slay is also trending towards playing.

Carr has been sacked just eight times all year and may face a bit more pressure than he is accustomed to, forcing him into some riskier passes. We are banking on the Lions to capitalize on this and are taking Over 0.5 interceptions for the Raiders QB.


TOM NOT-SO TERRIFIC

The Baltimore Ravens’ secondary is getting healthier ahead of their big AFC matchup with the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football. The Ravens will have free safety Earl Thomas and get stud corner Jimmy Smith back, as well. This will push corner Marlon Humphrey (positive PFF grade) into the slot where he will see a heavy dose of Julian Edleman.

Tom Brady has played to a passer rating of 83.3 over his last five games and Sunday’s game will be just his second time, and first in five weeks, facing a team with a winning record this year. His QBR rating of 58.7 is also the worst mark of his career.

We are 1-0 this year betting against the GOAT and looking to fade his passing total in Week 9. Take the Under on Tom Terrific's 292.5 passing yard total.


ACCIDENTS WILL ALLEN

The Denver Broncos have punted the most over their last three games at 7.3 a game and have converted an abysmal 12.8 percent of their third downs over that stretch. This is the offense that Joe Flacco has passed down to Brandon Allen for the Broncos Week 9 matchup with the Cleveland Browns.

Allen has yet to take a regular-season snap since being drafted in the sixth-round in 2016. In the preseason, however, the newest member of the Broncos has thrown 11 interceptions and been sacked 13 times in 226 pass attempts (62.8 completion percent). It’s tough to be worse than Flacco, but Allen has a good chance of doing it against the Browns whose defense is tied for eighth in completions against at 21.1.

Flacco averaged 21 completions over his eight starts this year and cleared 20 completions just once in his last four. There is a better chance that Allen falls on his face than he performs better than Flacco. Take the Under on Allen’s 20.5 completions.


BACKING A BOTHERED BELL

Last week we backed Le’Veon Bell’s rushing total and came up plenty short. We weren’t the only ones who were upset as even Bell, himself, was frustrated and angry about his lack of touches. But it looks like head coach, Adam Gase and the running back have made amends, and are “on the same page” ahead of the Jets matchup against the Miami Dolphins, a game in which the Jets are favored for the first time since Week 1.

The Dolphins are allowing the second-most rushing yards per game to opponents at 160 as they are giving up 4.8 yards per rush attempt. The ‘Fins have also allowed three backs to eclipse the century mark over their last five games: James Connor, Adrian Peterson and Ezekiel Elliott.

We are chasing last week’s loss on the squeaky-wheel theory and riding the Over on Bell’s rushing total of 75.5 yards.


KICKING PLAY OF THE WEEK

In the four games at New Era Stadium this year, the longest field goal made was 46 yards. That was in Week 4 with warmer and less windy conditions than Sunday's game between the Redskins and Bills.

Last week, the northwest had some serious winds that really hampered teams’ kickers. This week in Buffalo, the temperature will be just above freezing with strong winds of the 20-mph variety.

Washington Kicker Dustin Hopkins is just 1-for-3 from 40 and longer since Week 1, while Buffalo kicker Stephen Hauschka is 0-for-3 in attempts from 49 or farther. We are making the WSH/BUF longest field goal Under 45.5 our kicking play of the week.

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Best spot bets for the NFL Week 9 odds: Raiders are ready to return home
Jason Logan

Oakland is playing its first home game since Week 2 and brings with it some momentum on the offensive side of the ball, ranked fourth in yards per play (6.2) and averaging almost 26 points per game over its last four outings.

Situational handicapping – more popularly known as spot betting – is a great way to find hidden value on or against a certain team. From letdowns, lookaheads, and schedule spots, these blips on the calendar are just one of the weapons NFL bettors can use in their fight against the Bookmakers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan combs through the Week 9 schedule and gives his favorite spot bet opportunities and how they could impact the outcomes.

LETDOWN SPOT: GREEN BAY PACKERS AT L.A. CHARGERS (+3.5, 47)

The Chargers finally snapped their three-game losing skid thanks to some classic kicking from the Chicago Bears last Sunday. Chicago kicker Eddy Pineiro botched a game-winning field goal, allowing the Bolts to escape the Windy City with a much-needed 17-16 victory.

Los Angeles has been in some tight contests this season, with all but one of its first eight games decided by a touchdown or less. The Week 8 win allows the franchise to exhale but only after pinning offense coordinator Ken Whisenhunt as the sacrificial lamb, firing him on Monday after the team slogged through offensive issues in the first half of the schedule.

The Chargers return “home” to Dignity Health Sports Park, which will undoubtedly be overtaken by resident and vacationing Cheeseheads this Sunday. With some of the urgency erased following that win, and the offense play calling in flux, this could be a bad spot for the Bolts in Week 9.


LOOKAHEAD SPOT: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-6, 51.5)

The Buccaneers have been a sharp play in Week 9, drawing some action from the wiseguys for their trip to Seattle on Sunday. Tampa Bay has slimmed from +6.5 to +6, playing in what will be the team’s fifth straight road game, thanks to a chunk of scheduling that took the Bucs away from Raymond James Stadium (including across the pond to London, England and a Week 7 bye) for 49 days.

While the Seahawks are a formidable opponent and most teams wouldn’t look past that challenge, the homesick Buccos could be running on empty after crossing the country and dreaming of a full week in their own beds, heading into a Week 11 home stand with Arizona.

Tampa Bay has managed to cover the spread only once on this grueling four-game road stretch and is 6-8-3 ATS as a road underdog since 2017.


SCHEDULE SPOT: DETROIT LIONS AT OAKLAND RAIDERS (-2, 50.5)

We mentioned the Buccaneers’ long road home just within reach, but the Oakland Raiders are coming out the other end of a similar stretch of schedule that last saw them inside RingCentral Coliseum on September 15.

Oakland is playing its first home game since Week 2 and brings with it some momentum on the offensive side of the ball. After a 2018 in which the Silver and Black ranked among the basement in most scoring stats, this year’s Raiders are currently fourth in yards per play (6.2) and averaged almost 26 points per game over their last four outings – all away from home.

Detroit makes the cross-country trek to the Bay Area with one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and has injury concerns around standouts Snacks Harrison and Darius Slay. Action seems to be siding with Oakland in his homecoming, moving the spread from -1.5 to -2.

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JIMMY BOYD
NFL | Nov 03, 2019
Redskins vs. Bills

1* NFL - Free Pick on Buffalo Bills -9 -110

Easy play on Buffalo, especially with the news that Case Keenum can't go. Washington will be sending out rookie Dwayne Haskins for his first NFL start and there's been absolutely nothing from the preseason or limited time he's been on the field this year to make you think he's going to play well. Haskins has played in 2 games, attempted 22 passes and has just 12 completions without a TD and 4 interceptions.

It doesn't make matters any better that he's facing a pissed off Buffalo team that was just embarrassed on their home field 31-13 by the Eagles last week. That was really the first bad game for the Bills all season and I'm confident they bounce back. Their defense should suffocate Haskins and I wouldn't be surprised if we got a score or two from that side of the ball.

Bills are also 16-5 ATS last 21 home games in the 2nd half of the season when facing a bad defensive team that is allowing 24 or more ppg. Take Buffalo!

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel Park

Laurel Park - Race 8	EXACTA, TRIFECTA &DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 8-9) / 10 cent SUPERFECTA $1.00 SUPER HIGH 5
Optional Claiming $50,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 104 • Purse: $47,000 • Post: 3:49P
(PLUS UP TO 30% MBF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE SIRED OR STATE BRED RACES OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 3 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $35,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * THREES OVER DEUCES: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SHOWALTER: Horse ha s the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. OLDIES BUT GOODIES: Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. EASTERN BAY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BROTHER CHUB: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days an d horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff.
3	THREES OVER DEUCES	2/1	5/1
1	SHOWALTER	3/1	6/1
5	OLDIES BUT GOODIES	6/1	8/1
6	EASTERN BAY	6/1	8/1
2	BROTHER CHUB	10/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	SHOWALTER	1	3/1	Front-runner	100	100	106.6	98.4	93.4
5	OLDIES BUT GOODIES	5	6/1	Front-runner	104	103	101.0	90.6	83.6
6	EASTERN BAY	6	6/1	Front-runner	101	98	94.2	92.2	87.7
7	JOHN JONES	7	5/1	Front-runner	99	88	21.8	79.6	72.1
3	THREES OVER DEUCES	3	2/1	Stalker	103	104	74.0	100.2	93.2
2	BROTHER CHUB	2	10/1	Stalker	100	99	54.6	92.2	82.2
4	SARATOGA BOB	4	8/1	Trailer	106	98	76.8	94.4	82.4

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers Downs

Will Rogers Downs - Race 10	Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta (.50 min.) / Superfecta (.10 min.) Pick 3 (Races 10-11-12)
Maiden • 300 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 74 • Purse: $13,700 • Post: 3:45P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS IN THEIR LAST THREE STARTS ARE LEAST PREFERRED.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * NICE SOCKS MS HOCKS: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. BP DOWN TO POLICIES: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
8	NICE SOCKS MS HOCKS	5/2	3/2
2	BP DOWN TO POLICIES	7/2	5/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	BP DOWN TO POLICIES	2	7/2	Average/Trouble-prone	70	66	5.1	0.0	0.0
3	KISSIN BABE	3	12/1	Slow	0	0	6.9	0.0	0.0
6	ZOOMING BIG DREAMS	6	20/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
8	NICE SOCKS MS HOCKS	8	5/2	Average	88	71	3.9	0.0	0.0
9	OUR SILVER STORM	9	6/1	Average	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10	RING A RING OF ROSES	10	5/1	Average/Trouble-prone	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: KOOL RED WAGON (12/1) [Jockey: Triana Jr Alfredo - Trainer: Ater Richard], MISS BERNAL EYES (12/1) [Jockey: Esqueda Erik - Trainer: Escamilla-Gonzalez E], EYESA FANCY PYC (8/1) [Jockey: Cunningham Travis - Trainer: Cogburn Orri

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7000 Class Rating: 85

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JUNE 3 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 GIOPRESS 2/1
# 3 DRILL TIME 9/5
# 7 THUNDER BASIN 8/1

I've got to go with GIOPRESS. Overall the Equibase Speed Figures of this animal look solid in this contest. Well above average win clip at this distance/surface. Must be given a shot based on the respectable speed figure earned in the last contest. DRILL TIME - He must be given a chance given the competitive speed figures. Silva has a strong win percent with horses running in dirt sprint races. THUNDER BASIN - Looks competitive to be up on the front end at the first call. Has to be given a shot versus this group of horses displaying quite good figures as of late and an average speed fig of 75 under similar conditions.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Churchill Downs - Race #2 - Post: 1:30pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $97,000 Class Rating: 92

Rating:

#6 BOUJIE GIRL (ML=5/1)
#3 CARDAMON (ML=8/5)
#1 SHILAH BABY (ML=3/1)


BOUJIE GIRL - This racer coming off a solid effort in the last thirty days is a contender in my humble opinion. Took a class drop in the last race at Keeneland. Correas keeps her at the same level in this event. I think that's a good move. CARDAMON - I have to like this filly's winning probability at the shorter trip. Ranked number 1 in earnings per race. Another indicator that this horse is classy. SHILAH BABY - Gaffalione and DiVito perform well when they combine forces. It's hard to beat a +999 ROI for a jock and conditioner. This horse has increased her speed ratings in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth considering when its time to bet.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 DIAMOND CRAZY (ML=5/2), #4 GOODBYE EARL (ML=8/1),

DIAMOND CRAZY - Just don't figure that she is pegged at the proper price at the probable odds. GOODBYE EARL - Should have at least hit the board in the last couple months in a sprint race to be any kind of value at low odds in a sprint. Any horse coming out of a route race should show some early speed to compete with the sprinters. Not probable that the rating she earned on May 18th will be good enough in this affair.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 BOUJIE GIRL is going to be the play if we are getting 4/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Santa Anita Park

11/03/19, SA, Race 4, 1.03 PT
6F [Dirt] 1.07.00 CLAIMING. Purse $24,000.
Claiming Price $20,000 (Maiden And Claiming Races For $16,000 Or Less Not Considered). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS
$1 Exacta /$0.50Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double - $0.50 Rolling Pick Three (Races 4-5-6) - $0.20 Rainbow Pick Six Starts (Races 4-9) - $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.)
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

100.0000	5	Concord Jet	4-1	Pereira T J	Koriner Brian J.	WL
099.3391	3	Verynsky	4-1	Bejarano R	Hess. Jr. Robert B.	JF
098.9992	2	Oil Can Knight	9/5	Garcia M	O'Neill Doug F.	TSE
098.6216	4	Toothless Wonder	7/2	Velez J I	Meah Anna
097.4698	6	Mo Dinero	4-1	Fuentes R	Knapp Steve
097.0544	1	Owning	8-1	Diaz. Jr. J	Sierra Javier Jose

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to SA.

5	121.20	1.11	34.18	188	550	[All Categories] Last Race Is Same Track As Today
3	121.20	1.11	34.18	188	550	[All Categories] Last Race Is Same Track As Today
2	121.20	1.11	34.18	188	550	[All Categories] Last Race Is Same Track As Today
4	121.20	1.11	34.18	188	550	[All Categories] Last Race Is Same Track As Today
6	49.70	1.12	34.15	70	205	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Race Sex Not Females
1	121.20	1.11	34.18	188	550	[All Categories] Last Race Is Same Track As Today

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6800 Class Rating: 59

FOR FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 117 LBS. SINCE SEPTEMBER 3, 2019 ALLOWED 1 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 GREMALATA'S GIRL 1/1
# 5 BLACK LIGHTING 8/5
# 2 ALWAYS BELLA 9/5

I've got to go with GREMALATA'S GIRL. She should be given a chance given the decent speed figs. Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Diaz have shown sharp results as of late. Will probably compete solidly in the early pace battle which bodes well with this group of animals. BLACK LIGHTING - Has recorded solid speed figures in dirt sprint races in the past. Has been running well lately and will almost certainly be up near the front end early on. ALWAYS BELLA - This filly with Diaz in the saddle makes her a contender.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Mountaineer Park - Race #9 - Post: 9:56pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,900 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#5 AMERICAN COTTON (ML=2/1)


AMERICAN COTTON - Have to make this gelding a contender; he comes off a nice outing on October 21st. A wise man taught me to play the lone speed horse. Take a look at this animal. I like the fact that this gelding's last speed figure, 72, is tops in this group.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 I'M A LAWMAN (ML=5/2), #4 ORE PASS (ML=4/1), #3 BALOTELLI (ML=8/1),

I'M A LAWMAN - This animal doesn't have a winner's attitude. Regularly finishes near the winner. ORE PASS - Pace makes the race and the lack of speed means this rallier will have to rally without any help. BALOTELLI - Hard to take this racer at the odds after the finish position (fourth) in the last affair. When checking today's class figure, he will have to record a much better speed rating than in the last race to be competitive in this dirt sprint.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 AMERICAN COTTON to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	5 with 7
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park West

11/03/19, GPW, Race 1, 1.20 ET
1 1/16M [Turf] 1.39.01 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $17,000.
Claiming Price $12,500. FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLDAND UPWARD
$1 Daily Double / $2 Quiniela / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta - $.50 Bet 3 (Races 1-2-3) / $.50 Pick 5 (Races 1 -5) / $1 Super Hi 5
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

100.0000	6	Micah Man	8-1	Lopez P	Vaccarezza Carlo	JW
098.5219	1	Restart	4-1	Meneses M	Gonzalez Oscar M.	SF
098.1142	8	Skyline View	7/2	Gutierrez R	Williams Matthew J.
097.2987	10	Uncle Gregory	8-1	Sanchez J	Vaccarezza Carlo
097.0183	11	Ifeelgood	9/2	Cruz M R	Yanez Moises R.	EL
096.8909	2	Sky's Son	10-1	Torres C A	Fawkes David
095.6167	4	Operated	15-1	Castro E M	Avila Juan Carlos	T
095.0306	5	Sir Hoski	6-1	Reyes L	Nihei Michelle
093.6544	9	Knokke by the Sea	30-1	Rios J M	Perez. Jr. Juan Carlos	C
093.0173	7	Drill Bit	15-1	Lugo C D	Azpurua. Jr. Eduardo
092.9154	3	Mano	30-1	Cardenas D	Collazo Henry

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to GPW.

6	40.00	1.14	38.41	53	138	[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
1	40.00	1.14	38.41	53	138	[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
8	40.00	1.14	38.41	53	138	[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
10	40.00	1.14	38.41	53	138	[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
11	40.00	1.14	38.41	53	138	[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
2	40.00	1.14	38.41	53	138	[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
4	40.00	1.14	38.41	53	138	[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
5	40.00	1.14	38.41	53	138	[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
9	40.00	1.14	38.41	53	138	[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
7	40.00	1.14	38.41	53	138	[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
3	40.00	1.14	38.41	53	138	[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today

If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

100.0000	6	Micah Man	8-1	Lopez P	Vaccarezza Carlo	JW
098.7115	10	Uncle Gregory	8-1	Sanchez J	Vaccarezza Carlo	E
097.3077	8	Skyline View	7/2	Gutierrez R	Williams Matthew J.
096.6538	1	Restart	4-1	Meneses M	Gonzalez Oscar M.	SF
096.4808	11	Ifeelgood	9/2	Cruz M R	Yanez Moises R.	L
094.2115	4	Operated	15-1	Castro E M	Avila Juan Carlos
093.9231	9	Knokke by the Sea	30-1	Rios J M	Perez. Jr. Juan Carlos	C
093.6731	2	Sky's Son	10-1	Torres C A	Fawkes David
093.2885	7	Drill Bit	15-1	Lugo C D	Azpurua. Jr. Eduardo
093.1923	5	Sir Hoski	6-1	Reyes L	Nihei Michelle
091.9038	3	Mano	30-1	Cardenas D	Collazo Henry

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to GPW.

6	40.00	1.14	38.41	53	138	[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
10	40.00	1.14	38.41	53	138	[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
8	40.00	1.14	38.41	53	138	[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
1	40.00	1.14	38.41	53	138	[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
11	40.00	1.14	38.41	53	138	[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
4	40.00	1.14	38.41	53	138	[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
9	40.00	1.14	38.41	53	138	[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
2	40.00	1.14	38.41	53	138	[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
7	40.00	1.14	38.41	53	138	[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
5	40.00	1.14	38.41	53	138	[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
3	40.00	1.14	38.41	53	138	[All Categories] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

Three NFL Picks 11/3

100* Over 42 Jets/Dolphins
100* Seahawks -4.5
100* Packers -4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday's Essentials
Tony Mejia

Redskins at Bills (-10.5/37), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: With Case Keenum ruled out due to a suspension, Redskins rookie Dwayne Haskins will make his first NFL start. The Ohio State product has gotten into road losses at the Vikings and Giants and is 12-for-22 with four interceptions. A road atmosphere won’t be anything new, but the hope is that he’ll be able adjust better waking up knowing he’s the starter as opposed to being thrust into a contest. In a related story, the Bills defense is set to be the most expensive to own in daily fantasy despite giving up 218 rushing yards in last week’s loss to the Eagles.

Buffalo must prove it can bounce back from its biggest setback of the season after being overwhelmed by Philly and is a double-digit favorite for the second time in three weeks. The Dolphins actually led in a 31-21 loss on Oct. 20, so Buffalo will have to get off to a better start in order to keep Haskins from finding a rhythm. The Bills have been outscored 35-13 in the second and third quarters of their last two games. Provided safety Kurt Coleman plays, the Bills come into this one relatively healthy. The ‘Skins have ruled out safeties Deshazor Everett and Montae Nicholson, so they could be vulnerable in the back if Josh Allen manages to hit a receiver in stride. Winds are expected to be around 20 miles per hour in upstate New York.

Titans at Panthers (-3.5/42), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: The Panthers have only played one home game since their Sept. 12 Thursday night loss to Tampa, having held off the Jaguars late on Oct. 6. As a result, taking the field in Charlotte without Cam Newton is a relatively new experience, so we’ll see how Kyle Allen responds as he attempts to bounce back from his first pro loss. Carolina got rocked 51-13 by San Francisco last weekend in a game where its defense got ran over and Allen was harassed into multiple turnovers, tasting turf seven times after sacks. Tennessee will look to follow up in being disruptive as it attempts to win a third straight Ryan Tannehill start.

Despite missing tight end and team leader Delanie Walker, Tannehill has looked sharp and has been paying off drives in the red zone, showing nice chemistry with tight end Jonnu Smith and young receivers A.J. Brown and Corey Davis. We’ll see if that holds up on the road since this will be the first time he leads the Titans out on the field outside of Nashville. Protecting Tannehill could be an issue if tackle Jack Conklin can’t go. He was downgraded to questionable. Center Ben Jones has already been ruled out, so the opportunity is there for the Panthers to keep the Titans from finding a rhythm. Christian McCaffrey should continue to be featured considering his elite form but Carolina got great news with Curtis Samuel and Jarius Wright both upgraded to ‘probable’ after overcoming nagging injuries enough to participate.

Bears at Eagles (-4/41), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Coming off a terrible loss to the Chargers, Chicago hits the road in crisis, in danger of falling two games under .500 at the season’s halfway point despite one of the league’s stingiest defenses. Philly was in a desperate state last week as they took the field against the Bills and it proved to be poised under pressure, rolling to a comfortable win. We’ll see if they can sustain their level of intensity, but it will help that RB Miles Sanders is set to be out there as the change-of-pace back behind Jordan Howard after being questionable earlier in the week. Tackle Jason Peters is out again, and no matter what anyone says about him not being the same guy he was five years ago, missing his experience and his marvelous athleticism even at his age is an obstacle for the Eagles to overcome. Safety Andrew Sendejo (groin) is questionable and DT Tim Jernigan has been cleared to play, so the defense should be up for the challenge of keeping Mitchell Trubisky from finding a rhythm.

The Bears haven’t been able to consistently get any of their weapons off outside of Allen Robinson, who will have a great matchup here given the Eagles’ issues in the secondary. The weather will cooperate since winds aren’t expected to be an issue, so Trubisky will have an opportunity to stave off naysayers since Wentz is likely going to set a pace for him to follow. Both Darren Sproles and DeSean Jackson are slated to return for an offense that has missed his contributions, so Wentz will have all of the Eagles’ toys at his disposal despite not having Peters out there to create space. Khalil Mack will have help back up front with Bilal Nichols in the mix after overcoming an injury. Safety Eddie Jackson is a go as well despite being hampered by a hamstring issue.

Vikings (-3.5/47) at Chiefs, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The expectation is that Kansas City will wisely sit Patrick Mahomes, holding him out to heal for at least another week. Matt Moore will try and pick up a victory in what is set to be the Chiefs’ fourth home game in five weeks. If they fall as an underdog, they’ll have gone 1-4 in those games. Kansas City faces a long road ahead of it in needing to step up on the road just to make the playoffs, but it’s hard to argue that they face an uphill battle here. Veteran former defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer and his brain trust will have a strong defensive game plan in place against Moore after Andy Reid put everything he was looking to accomplish on display in attempting to pull off an upset against Green Bay. The ‘over’ is 5-3 in their games.

Safety Jayvon Kearse is considered questionable after being charged with DWI, but corners Xavier Rhoades and Holton Hill are going to be available in the secondary. Minnesota will look to keep everything in front of them so there could be short throws available to Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman and tight end Travis Kelce. The Vikes have upgraded Adam Thielen to probable and will therefore have their entire offense available. Dalvin Cook has been the league’s most productive running back and should have a big day since wind could be a factor at Arrowhead. Kansas City’s defense has had issues containing opposing running backs.

Packers (-4/48.5) at Chargers, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS: I wrote a few weeks ago that it would be foolish to try and fade Aaron Rodgers at the moment and he’s been able to help the Packers overcome the absence of Davante Adams with his brilliance. The expectation is that Adams is returning for this game, so riding Rodgers in Southern California seems like a no-brainer since he’s about to play in front of Green Bay West with Packers’ fans set to invade Carson for this game. The Chargers are have WR Keenan Allen in the mix to improve their chances but limited him last week due to a hamstring injury and aren’t likely to over-extend him here.

RB Aaron Jones leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns despite splitting red-zone work with Jamaal Williams of late and dropping a sure touchdown catch on a wheel route a few weeks ago. Rodgers has been able to rely on a running game to help him navigate the absence of Adams and has also seen tackles David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga remain active, the latter playing through a broken finger. L.A. lost safety Derwin James in the preseason and hasn’t been able to adequately replace him. Roderic Teamer is now doubtful due to a groin injury, complicating matters. Top run stuffer Brandon Mebane was hoping to return after missing multiple games but he’s considered doubtful. Justin Jones is dealing with a shoulder issue and is also unlikely to play, while DT Cortez Broughton and safety Nasir Adderley have been ruled out.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Week 9 Sunday odds and line moves: Public on Patriots, sharps on Ravens
Patrick Everson

NFL Week 9 features a Pros vs. Joes wagering battle in the Sunday night game. We check in on the action and odds movement for that contest and three others, with insights from Scott Shelton, sportsbook supervisor at The Mirage on the Las Vegas Strip.

PATRIOTS AT RAVENS – OPEN: +4; MOVE: +3.5; MOVE: +3

The last time New England lost, many of us were still buttoning down our holiday shopping. The defending Super Bowl champion Patriots are on a 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS spree, with their last loss coming in mid-December. In Week 8, the Pats (8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS) topped Cleveland 27-13 as 9.5-point favorites.

Baltimore is atop the AFC North with a 5-2 SU mark, but is the exact opposite with the spread, at 2-5 ATS. The Ravens are on a three-game SU streak and coming off a bye, following an impressive 30-16 victory over Seattle as 3-point road underdogs.

The sharps are on the Ravens and the public is on the Patriots, and Shelton expects the book to be with the wiseguys in this 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff.

“I’m surprised we’re still at Patriots -3. I can’t imagine this closes at 3,” Shelton said, noting his expectation that the line is heading upward. “But right now, the money is really close. Ticket count is 3.5/1 Patriots. It’s got all day to brew, with parlays and all that. We’re gonna need the Ravens by the night, I’m confident about that.”

PACKERS AT CHARGERS – OPEN: +3; MOVE: +3.5; MOVE: +4

Green Bay is solid on the field and against the oddsmakers, sporting marks of 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS. The Packers went off as 5-point favorites at Kansas City last Sunday night and withstood a strong charge to win 31-24.

Los Angeles hopes to continue climbing after it halted a 1-5 SU skid in Week 8 (1-4-1 ATS). The Chargers (3-5 SU, 2-4-2 ATS) rallied from a 16-7 third-quarter deficit at Chicago to post a 17-16 victory catching 3.5 points.

“This game is completely one-sided. Sharps and public are piling on the Packers. Ticket count is 15/1, money is 17/1,” Shelton said of pointspread activity, while noting parlays and moneyline parlays also loom large for this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. “Everything in the early games is gonna flow to the Packers. I’d say this is the biggest game of the day, except I can’t say that with the Patriots playing Sunday night.”

VIKINGS AT CHIEFS – OPEN: -4; MOVE: NONE

It took until Saturday to get a little clarity, but it appears quarterback Patrick Mahomes won’t be on the field for this 1 p.m. ET kick, after Kansas City activated Chad Henne from injured reserve. That said, Mahomes is still listed as questionable as he recovers from a dislocated kneecap suffered in Week 7.

In Week 8, the Chiefs (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) rode Matt Moore to a respectable Sunday night showing, but they didn’t have enough for Green Bay, losing 31-24 as 5-point home pups. For the moment, Moore would be the starter and Henne the backup today.

Minnesota is rested and ready, coming off the bye week and on a four-game win streak. The Vikings (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) went off as hefty 16.5-point Week 7 home faves against Washington and managed a 19-9 victory, halting a three-game spread-covering streak.

Due to Mahomes’ uncertainty, the line for this game was off the board all week, finally going up Saturday night.

“Not much here, because we hung this so late,” Shelton said. “The line seems right. We hung 4 and nothing really happened with it. We’ve got a little more money on Minnesota, and ticket count is 2/1 on Minnesota.”

BEARS AT EAGLES – OPEN: -4.5; MOVE: NONE

Chicago went 12-4 SU and ATS last season, and while it can still match that SU mark, it would have go 9-0 the rest of the way to do so. The Bears (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) let a 16-7 third-quarter lead slip away against the Los Angeles Chargers, losing 17-16 as 3.5-point home favorites last week.

Philadelphia halted a 2-4 SU and ATS skid with a much-needed Week 8 victory to get back to .500. The Eagles (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) breezed by Buffalo 31-13 laying 1 point on the road.

“It’s pretty much all Eagles, all public,” Shelton said of this 1 p.m. ET meeting. “Ticket count almost 4/1, money 3/1 in favor of the Eagles. Sharps haven’t really gotten involved, and the public doesn’t believe in Mitch Trubisky. It makes sense.”