Service Plays Saturday 11/9/19

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-04-2019, 07:59 PM

Steve Deace:

Boston College -1 over Florida State. It's the red bandanna game for the Eagles, and they always bring it for that. Plus, the Seminoles just fired their head coach.*

LSU +6.5 over Alabama. At the very least I think I can get a back door cover with a *line like that.*

Arizona State +1 over USC. *Sun Devils coming off a bye, and USC's dreams of winning the Pac-12 South essentially ended last week.*

Illinois +13 over Michigan State. Illini are openly talking about how big this game is to them, while Sparty is still dealing with disappointment and distractions. Might be a worthwhile ML play.*

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2019, 09:15 AM

Mike Tierney

NC STATE +32
CLEMSON @ NC STATE | 11/09 | 7:30 PM EST
YESTERDAY 5:56 PM
There are plenty of walking wounded on N.C. State, and Clemson will be motivated to run up the score to impress the playoff committee. But 32 points on the road against a team that has not lost straight-up at home are too many to give. Clemson’s take-no-prisoners offense is rocking, but it has yet to confront an ACC defense as stout as the Wolfpack’s, which is ranked fourth in the league.

23-13 IN LAST 36 CFB PICKS | +864
LOUISIANA TECH -5.5
NORTH TEXAS @ LOUISIANA TECH | 11/09 | 4:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 5:41 PM
The site of this matchup is all that matters. North Texas is winless ATS on the road this year and 1-7 going back to mid-2018. Louisiana Tech is perfect ATS at home this season. The Bulldogs have covered in all but one of the last five meetings and are stepping out of a bye week. They are well-equipped to engage in a shootout if Mean Green quarterback Mason Fine gets rolling.

23-13 IN LAST 36 CFB PICKS | +864
3-2 IN LAST 5 LATECH ATS PICKS | +75

UNDER 65
LSU @ ALABAMA | 11/09 | 3:30 PM EST
YESTERDAY 4:46 PM
Forget about LSU’s ramped-up offense, as hard as that may be. Dismiss Alabama’s array of skill-position standouts and the possible return of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa from an ankle injury, as difficult as that seems. Defensive battles, or at least modest offensive displays, are ingrained in this series as the last five meetings have had combined scores below 47 and resulted in Unders. What truly is challenging to envision is defensive-minded Alabama coach Nick Saban engaging in a shootout.

23-13 IN LAST 36 CFB PICKS | +864
2-1 IN LAST 3 BAMA O/U PICKS | +86

UNDER 40.5
PURDUE @ NORTHWESTERN | 11/09 | 12:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 4:33 PM
Purdue is down to third-string quarterback Aidan O’Connell, who began the season as a walk-on, because of injuries. Six of Northwestern's last eight games have been at or below this total, and the Wildcats have produced a stunningly low total of six points over their last three contests. The Boilermakers are in the midst of a 12-3 Under run dating to last season.

23-13 IN LAST 36 CFB PICKS | +864
MASSACHUSETTS +35
MASSACHUSETTS @ ARMY | 11/09 | 12:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 4:20 PM
UMass is among the candidates for the title of weakest FBS team but should be able to stay within five touchdowns of Army, whose rush-first approach often means a running clock. The Black Knights average just 90 yards passing per game. At 0-4 ATS in home contests, they continually get spotted too many points.

23-13 IN LAST 36 CFB PICKS | +864
3-2 IN LAST 5 ARMY ATS PICKS | +80

MARYLAND +42.5
MARYLAND @ OHIO ST. | 11/09 | 12:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 4:08 PM
This super-sized line actually has dipped a few points. There still is reason to side with the underdog while ignoring that Ohio State has covered its last seven games and Maryland is 1-6 straight-up since being ranked 21st in the country two weeks into the season. The spread is, by far, the biggest for a conference game in any league. Terrapins quarterback Josh Jackson was rusty last Saturday versus Michigan in his first start back from injury and should be more in tune against the Buckeyes.

23-13 IN LAST 36 CFB PICKS | +864

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2019, 09:15 AM

Emory Hunt

THE CZAR OF THE PLAYBOOK
YESTERDAY 12:41 PM

WISCONSIN -9.5
IOWA @ WISCONSIN | 11/09 | 4:00 PM EST
"The Badger Way" is still a good way to play the game: Run game and defense. Iowa does a great job of playing the same style of attack. Where this game will be decided is in the trenches. Wisconsin's ability to dominate up front, along with RB Jonathan Taylor's ability to hit the home run, will be the difference in a huge Big Ten matchup Saturday. Lay the points with Wisconsin

73-41 IN LAST 114 CFB ATS PICKS | +2875
8-3-1 IN LAST 12 WISC ATS PICKS | +474

6-2 IN LAST 8 IOWA ATS PICKS | +389

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2019, 09:15 AM

Micah Roberts
FORMER VEGAS Bookmaker
YESTERDAY 3:32 PM
UNDER 65 LSU @ ALABAMA | 11/09 | 3:30 PM EST
Alabama has won the last eight meetings and nine of the last 10 have stayed Under the total. This is the highest total I’ve ever seen posted in this series. Both teams come in averaging more than 46 ppg, which is why the total is so high. But the LSU and Alabama defenses combine to allow only 36 ppg. I look for the defenses to better than the offenses and keep this one Under the total.

7-2 IN LAST 9 CFB PICKS | +480
3-0 IN LAST 3 BAMA O/U PICKS | +300

Mike Tierney
TOP DOG
MON 11/4
UNDER 65 LSU @ ALABAMA | 11/09 | 3:30 PM EST
Forget about LSU’s ramped-up offense, as hard as that may be. Dismiss Alabama’s array of skill-position standouts and the possible return of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa from an ankle injury, as difficult as that seems. Defensive battles, or at least modest offensive displays, are ingrained in this series as the last five meetings have had combined scores below 47 and resulted in Unders. What truly is challenging to envision is defensive-minded Alabama coach Nick Saban engaging in a shootout.

23-13 IN LAST 36 CFB PICKS | +864
2-1 IN LAST 3 BAMA O/U PICKS | +86

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2019, 09:16 AM

Barrett Sallee

LIBERTY +17
LIBERTY @ BYU | 11/09 | 7:30 PM EST
YESTERDAY 5:34 PM
Did you know that the Flames boast the No. 16 offense in the nation in yards per play at 6.77? The Cougars, meanwhile, are ranked No. 69 in the nation in opponent's plays of 10 or more yards with 121. I'll ride with the big play offense to take advantage of a defense that gives up big plays enough to keep it within 17.

28-16-2 IN LAST 46 CFB PICKS | +1035

LOUISVILLE +6.5
LOUISVILLE @ MIAMI (FLA.) | 11/09 | 3:30 PM EST
YESTERDAY 5:28 PM
The Cardinals -- off a great defensive performance in a win over Virginia (311 yards) -- have had two weeks to prepare for an average Miami offense coming off an emotional win over rival Florida State. Do you trust Miami's offensive line against anybody? I don't. This will be a defensive slugfest that will come down to the wire.

28-16-2 IN LAST 46 CFB PICKS | +1035
UNDER 49.5
BAYLOR @ TCU | 11/09 | 12:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 5:26 PM
This is a battle between two of the top three defenses in the Big 12, and Bears coach Matt Rhule won't take too many chances in Fort Worth in a game that his team has to win in order to keep its CFP hopes alive. Meanwhile, Horned Frogs QB Max Duggan is going to have his work cut out for him going up against this aggressive Bears defense.

28-16-2 IN LAST 46 CFB PICKS | +1035

**dawggy** · 11-06-2019, 10:03 PM

DREW MARTIN

Game:(187) Georgia State at (188) UL MONROE
Date/Time: Nov 9 2019 5:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Georgia State -2.5 (-108)

View Analysis

4% at -3.5

3% at -6

2% at -7

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-07-2019, 05:37 AM

Ben Burns

Total of the Year

Nev/SDST over

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-07-2019, 05:43 AM

+EV: CFB 4u: 167 LSU/Alabama ov63.5 -105 (Saturday, November 9th)

**Iowethe man** · 11-07-2019, 01:40 PM

Stanford Steve (3-2 last week, 27-22-2 overall)

The Bear (1-3 last week, 22-20-1 overall)

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Virginia Cavaliers (-16, 46)
The Bear: The Yellow Jackets have improved throughout the year, especially over the past couple of weeks -- on the defensive side of the football -- against Pitt and Miami, but the offense isn't up to speed yet. Virginia got a brilliant game from Bryce Perkins in the win at North Carolina, but I can see a bit of a slow start in an early kickoff for the Cavaliers, who are two wins away from a berth in the ACC title game. Virginia has five games with multiple turnovers, and half of the turnovers that the Cavaliers have forced this season came in one game, against Duke. Virginia has struggled against the run recently too, so it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Jackets hang around here after the Cavs posted a season high in yards and a turnover-free game last week.
Pick: Georgia Tech +16

UAB Blazers at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-4.5, 50.5)
EDITOR'S PICKS

The Bear: I don't get the line move here at all. Our FPI numbers have Southern Miss by about nine here. Also factor in an off week last week for the Golden Eagles -- allowing some injuries to running backs to heal -- and it likely would help some red zone issues they've had. UAB was blown out by Tennessee and likely lost QB Tyler Johnston III in the process, adding to the list of Blazer injuries. UAB has played the worst schedule in the FBS, and on the road here versus a team that has lost to Alabama, at Mississippi State and at Louisiana Tech, the Blazers might be up against it.
Pick: Southern Miss -4.5

Temple Owls (-2, 49) at South Florida Bulls
The Bear: Our numbers have South Florida as about a 4-point favorite here. Give the Bulls credit; sitting at 1-3 and looking like the season was headed downhill, they rolled off three wins in four games to keep hope alive for a bowl game. But a win here is a must, as they will have to pull upsets of Cincinnati, Memphis or UCF, as well, to get there. Temple could use a win after consecutive blowout losses to SMU and UCF, but the Owls didn't stop the run at all in those games, and USF has run the ball very well as of late.
Pick: South Florida +2

Baylor Bears (-2, 47.5) at TCU Horned Frogs
The Bear: I'm going back in on a TCU game after losing with the Horned Frogs last week. History says 8-0 or better teams on the road favored by a field goal or less against an unranked team fare pretty well (see Bear Bytes below). And I would expect Baylor to play a much sharper game than it did last week against West Virginia, despite the looming showdown with Oklahoma next week. The expectation is that TCU quarterback Max Duggan will play after being injured last week, but I would expect him to be shy of 100 percent. And if he can't go or reinjures himself, the TCU QB situation gets even muddier. After two earlier wins this year by a field goal or less, Baylor bounced back immediately to post a pair of 17-plus-point wins. It might not be a 17-point win, but Matt Rhule should have his team ready to go on Saturday.
Pick: Baylor -2
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Stanford Steve: Watching the end of TCU's loss last week, I noticed Duggan went down with an awful-looking injury to his throwing hand, so his status is unknown. His backup, Mike Collins, also was injured in the last couple of minutes. The Frogs also had another QB transfer this week. So, if Duggan does play, I don't expect him to be 100 percent. I was on Baylor last week, and the Bears put forth their worst effort of the year and were fortunate to beat West Virginia, not even coming close to covering the 17.5 points they were favored by. I think the Bears, with the extra days of prep after playing on a Thursday night, will be ready for this road test. I'll lay the points with the road favorite.
Pick: Baylor -2. Baylor 27, TCU 17.

Louisville Cardinals at Miami Hurricanes (-6.5, 48)
Stanford Steve: Just really like the situation here. Louisville is off a bye with a head coach who I trust a lot. "The U" is coming off an impressive win over rival Florida State in Tallahassee. Letdown spot for Miami? I think so.
Pick: Louisville +6.5. Miami 24, Louisville 23.

Tennessee Volunteers at Kentucky Wildcats (PK, 42)
Stanford Steve: The Vols come in off two wins in which they scored a combined 71 points. The Wildcats are off a bye and will bring a ferocious defense, along with a seriously hostile atmosphere. Plus, if Mark Stoops really wants the Florida State job, a win here would help that cause immensely.
Pick: Kentucky PK. Kentucky 21, Tennessee 17.

Wyoming Cowboys at Boise State Broncos (-12, 48)
Stanford Steve: The Cowboys head to the "Smurf Turf" a week after losing starting QB Sean Chambers. I don't like the matchup for the Pokes here. I will provide you some useless information though. Broncos head coach Bryan Harsin allowed freshman QB Hank Bachmeier to meet with the media for the first time this week. Not one question asked of him was about this game.
Pick: Boise State -12. Boise State 31, Wyoming 14.
The Bear's money-line parlay of the week

Six-team favorite ML parlay. Based on current Caesars odds, $100 returns $80.03.
BYU -900
SMU -2000
Wisconsin -400
San Diego State -1100
UCF -850
Clemson -8000

The Bear's underdogs to play on money lines, parlays, round robins

South Florida +105
Florida State +110
Louisville +205
Duke +265
Wyoming +400

Stanford Steve's four-team, 14-point teaser

I'm not sure I want to take the favorites and the over separately, so we have this:
Clemson Tigers (-31.5, 53.5) at NC State Wolfpack
You think Dabo Swinney will have his team's attention after the College Football Playoff rankings released earlier this week had the Tigers at No. 5? It's the first time since 2014 that they haven't been in top four. The team that always finds a way to punch in a score late might just try to make sure they punch in a couple of more.
Prediction: Clemson 51, NC State 10.
UMass Minutemen at Army Black Knights (-34, 62.5)
Just because.
Prediction: Army 51, UMass 14.
Pick: Clemson -17.5 and over 39.5, Army -20 and over 48.5.

Stay-away games

The Bear

Purdue Boilermakers at Northwestern Wildcats (-2.5, 39.5)
I strongly suggest watching what could be an offensive masterpiece of a game. But I highly advise not wagering on it.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State Spartans (-14.5, 45.5)
It looks like Illinois will be a very public 'dog. The Illini have been playing much better ball. And it's always tough to lay north of two TDs with an inconsistent Michigan State offense. So why am I so worried about taking the points here?

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Arkansas Razorbacks (-1.5, 52.5)
You deserve whatever you get for getting involved here.
Stanford Steve

Texas Tech Red Raiders (-2.5, 60) at West Virginia Mountaineers
Lubbock at Morgantown? No thanks.

Bear Bytes

All you need to know about Alabama-LSU

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The last time Alabama was favored by less than seven points at home was for the 2011 LSU game, which the second-ranked Crimson Tide lost 9-6 as 5-point favorite vs. No. 1 LSU. As of Thursday, Alabama was a 6.5-point favorite for Saturday's matchup.
Under Nick Saban, Alabama has been less than a 7-point favorite four times. The Tide has lost three of the games outright and pushed the other.
2011: -5 vs. LSU, lost 9-6
2010: -4 vs. Auburn, lost 28-27
2007: -3.5 vs. Georgia, lost 26-23
2007: -3 vs. Arkansas, won 41-38
And the past six times Alabama was a favorite of less than seven points, the Tide are just 3-3 straight up, and they covered only once.
2018: -5.5, vs. Clemson, lost by 28
2017: -3.5 vs. Georgia, won by 3
2017: -3.5 vs. Clemson, won by 18
2017: -5 at Auburn, lost by 12
2016: -6 vs. Clemson, lost by 4
2015: -6.5 vs. Clemson, won by 5
In the past 40 years, there have been five regular-season games between the AP Nos. 1 and 2 in which the AP No. 1 was an underdog. The AP No. 1 won outright all five times, including LSU as a 5-point 'dog at Alabama in 2011.
2011: No. 1 LSU at No. 2 Alabama (-5), won 9-6
2006: No. 1 Ohio State at No. 2 Texas (-2.5), won 24-7
1989: No. 1 Notre Dame at No. 2 Michigan (-1), won 24-19
1988: No. 1 Notre Dame at No. 2 Southern California (-4), won 27-10
1985: No. 1 Iowa vs. No. 2 Michigan (-3), won 12-10
LSU is averaging 46.8 points per game this season, but the Tigers have had trouble putting up points against Alabama recently.
Past three years: 10 total points scored by LSU vs. Bama
Past four years: 26 points
Past five years: 39 points
Past six years: 56 points
Post-Florida State letdown is real
Miami is 1-5 against the spread (ATS), with four outright losses, the week after playing Florida State over the past six years.
Tough to lay points with Spartans
Since the start of last year, Michigan State has been a favorite of at least 14 points seven times. MSU is 1-6 ATS in those seven games, including an outright loss to Arizona State earlier this year as a 15.5-point favorite.
Iowa not a good road 'dog
In Iowa's past 15 games as an underdog, the Hawkeyes are 4-11 ATS with three outright wins. All three wins came when Iowa was a 'dog of at least seven points (+7 vs. Mississippi State in a bowl game last year, +20.5 vs. Ohio State in 2017 and +21 vs. Michigan in 2016). However, in Iowa's past seven games as a road underdog, the Hawkeyes are both 0-7 straight up and ATS. The last time Iowa won as a road underdog came in 2016 at Minnesota.

Bad spot again for Arkansas?
Under Chad Morris, Arkansas has lost three of five games against Group of Five opponents, including two at home; one came earlier this year as a 19.5-point favorite vs. San Jose State.
Bet on Baylor?
In the past 40 years, there have been nine teams 8-0 or better favored by a field goal or less on the road against an unranked team. Those nine teams have gone 7-2. The last such game came in 2015, when 11-0 Iowa won 28-20 at Nebraska as a 2-point favorite. This is the spot Baylor is in this week.
Historic day in Minneapolis
This is the first time since 1985 that a ranked Minnesota team hosts a top-10 opponent. That year, Lou Holtz's 20th-ranked Golden Gophers lost 23-19 to No. 9 Ohio State. It's the first time since 1961 that a ranked Minnesota team hosts a top-10 opponent in November. No. 5 Minnesota beat No. 7 Purdue 10-7 that year. And it's the first time since 1968 that a ranked Minnesota team hosts a top-5 team. No. 16 Minnesota lost 29-20 to No. 2 USC that year.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-07-2019, 09:43 PM

Allen Eastman

6 Notre dame under 51
5 Washington under 65
5 Georgia southern -3
4 Wake forest -2.5
3 Miami -6.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-07-2019, 09:46 PM

Scott spreitzer

4 Texas tech -2.5
3 Kansas st +7
2 Baylor-2.5
6 Georgia st -2.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-07-2019, 09:48 PM

Tony George

7 Baylor -2.5
4 Stanford -3.5
3 Minn under 47.5
3 San jose st +8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-07-2019, 09:50 PM

Jason Sharpe

7-Georgia St.
5-Georgia Southern
3-Baylor
3-Louisiana Tech

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-07-2019, 09:52 PM

Doc Sports

college

7-minnesota+6.5
4-s.car-5
2-purdue+115
2-tenn+1

Service Plays Saturday 11/9/19

Service Plays Saturday 11/9/19

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