Service Plays Sunday 11/10/19

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THE PREZ Football Plays

• PREZIDENTs NFL GAME of the WEEK
  Game: (255) Arizona Cardinals at (256) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  Date/Time: Nov 10 2019 1:00 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Heritage
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.0 (-108)
  
  View Analysis
  
  Play on Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 (good to -6)
  4% play rating
  (255) Arizona Cardinals at (256) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4
• PREZIDENTs NFC TOTAL of the WEEK
  Game: (255) Arizona Cardinals at (256) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  Date/Time: Nov 10 2019 1:00 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Total Over 51.5 (-107)
  
  View Analysis
  
  Play OVER the TOTAL of 51.5 (play good to 52)
  4% play rating
  (255) Arizona Cardinals at (256) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  OVER the TOTAL of 51.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Oh

DATA SCIENTIST

SportsLine's principal data engineer, Stephen specializes in sports simulations, projections and advanced statistical analysis. He is a co-founder of AccuScore. Stephen, whose NCAA Tournament upset bracket called 15 of the 26 double-digit seed upsets in the first round the past four years, is coming off a strong 2018 MLB season in which he returned more than $1,100 to $100 players. In the NFL, Stephen is up nearly $1,400 over the past three years.

Stephen's
Picks (3 Live)
FLORIDA ST. +6
FLORIDA ST. @ FLORIDA | 11/10 | 1:00 PM EST
1:31 AM
I'm projecting a tight game between these in-state rivals, with FSU covering in nearly 60 percent of my simulations. Take the Seminoles to cover for the seventh straight time in this series.

OVER 43
MIAMI @ INDIANAPOLIS | 11/10 | 4:05 PM EST
MON 11/4
Despite having their three-game winning streak halted in their 26-24 loss at Pittsburgh, the Colts still managed to score at least three touchdowns for the fifth time in eight games this season. And they did so with their backup quarterback. Expect even more this week as they face one of the league's worst defenses and grab the Over.

3-0 IN LAST 3 NFL O/U PICKS | +300
ARIZONA +5
ARIZONA @ TAMPA BAY | 11/10 | 1:00 PM EST
MON 11/4
There's a ton of value on the Cardinals, who will be playing on extra rest following their impressive performance in a 28-25 loss to the undefeated 49ers. In my simulations, Arizona is covering nearly 60 percent of the time. Grab the points before this line falls.

7-4-1 IN LAST 12 NFL PICKS | +259
5-2-2 IN LAST 9 TB ATS PICKS | +284

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brett Anderson

THE DOG WHISPERER

A CBS Sports NFL editor, Brett Anderson has been covering the NFL and other sports for 25 years, from the Midwest to Midtown Manhattan to South Florida. He joined his first NFL picks pool at age 12 and has been hammering home dogs ever since. Brett's strategy is a hybrid of data, game film and gut instinct, and he also seeks out prognosticators on a serious streak to either ride along with the red hot or, often more profitably, fade the ice cold.

Brett's
Picks (6 Live)
UNDER 44.5
N.Y. GIANTS @ N.Y. JETS | 11/10 | 1:00 PM EST
12:53 AM
The Giants and Jets have played a combined nine games at MetLife Stadium this season, and seven of those have gone Under the total. The Giants will be without both Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard, and it should be tough sledding for Saquon Barkley against a Jets D that’s allowing an NFL-best 3.1 yards per carry. The Jets’ offense is averaging 12 points per game. Take the Under.

20-15-1 IN LAST 36 NFL PICKS | +346
N.Y. JETS +3
N.Y. GIANTS @ N.Y. JETS | 11/10 | 1:00 PM EST
12:35 AM
The Jets have looked especially terrible ever since Sam Darnold saw ghosts on MNF, but getting three points against a Giants team that’s missing Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard is too many. The Giants still have Saquon Barkley, but the Jets have allowed the fewest rushing yards per carry (3.1) in the league and are No. 2 in rush DVOA. Darnold isn’t nearly as bad as he’s looked lately, and I think the Jets will keep it close in the battle of N.Y. against a bad Giants D. Grab the points.

20-15-1 IN LAST 36 NFL PICKS | +346
UNDER 43.5
L.A. RAMS @ PITTSBURGH | 11/10 | 4:25 PM EST
YESTERDAY 5:17 PM
Both the Rams and Steelers have seen their games go Under the total more often than not this season (3 Overs, 5 Unders each), and both of these defenses are in the top five in DVOA, per Football Outsiders. It’s hard to envision Mason Rudolph and the Steelers putting up many points, especially without James Conner and possibly JuJu Smith-Schuster, who’s listed as questionable. The Under is the play.

20-15-1 IN LAST 36 NFL PICKS | +346
CHICAGO -3
DETROIT @ CHICAGO | 11/10 | 1:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 4:49 PM
It’s not ideal to be laying points with Mitchell Trubisky, but apparently there’s a real possibility Matthew Stafford won’t play in this game. Stafford’s a game-time decision, and if he can’t go, it will be Jeff Driskel leading the Lions offense, which hasn’t been able to run it at all the last four weeks, against the Bears' talented defense. Even if Stafford plays, he likely won’t be 100 percent, and if there’s a defense for Trubisky to finally find his form against, it’s the Lions (second most yards per game). Lay the points.

20-15-1 IN LAST 36 NFL PICKS | +346
MIAMI +11
MIAMI @ INDIANAPOLIS | 11/10 | 4:05 PM EST
YESTERDAY 10:22 AM
Since the Dolphins decided to go with Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 6, they've covered the spread every game. Now they'll face a Colts team that will be without T.Y. Hilton (Indy is 0-6 when Hilton hasn't played) and could be without Jacoby Brissett, who's a game-time decision. The Colts haven’t won or lost a game this season by more than seven points, and that shouldn't change against a Dolphins team that's been lively of late. Take the points.

20-15-1 IN LAST 36 NFL PICKS | +346
3-1 IN LAST 4 IND ATS PICKS | +190

SAN FRANCISCO -6
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO | 11/11 | 8:15 PM EST
THU 11/7
The Niners aren't a team you want to play anywhere this season, but especially not at Levi's Stadium. In San Francisco’s three home games, they beat the Browns by 28, the Panthers by 38, and the Steelers by four despite committing five turnovers. Russell Wilson somehow has the Seahawks at 7-2 despite a defense that ranks 27th in DVOA, per Football Outsiders, but it will be too hard even for Wilson to keep pace against a Niners defense that’s allowed the fewest yards and second-fewest points in the league. Lay the points.

20-15-1 IN LAST 36 NFL PICKS | +346

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hank Goldberg

HAMMER

Legendary handicapper Hammerin' Hank Goldberg joined SportsLine in 2018 and promptly cashed huge for SportsLine members, calling each of Justify's Triple Crown wins. A beloved national treasure, Hammer enjoyed a 17-year ESPN run in which he had only two losing seasons picking NFL games. In 2017 he competed against 10 top handicappers in the Las Vegas Review-Journal's NFL Challenge and beat them all, finishing 50-29-6 (63.2 percent) against the spread. He also destroyed the books in the 2018-19 college basketball season, finishing 35-20 (64 percent) while returning nearly $1,300 to $100 players.

Hank's
Picks (6 Live)
L.A. RAMS -3.5
L.A. RAMS @ PITTSBURGH | 11/10 | 4:25 PM EST
WED 11/6
The Rams' top two competitors, the 49ers and Seahawks, are playing each other this week, so LA knows it can gain ground. Pittsburgh's defense is playing well, but the Rams are getting healthy and starting to resemble last year's NFC champions. Picking up Jalen Ramsey really helped their defense. For Pittsburgh, this is not a winnable game if the Rams come to play.

14-10-1 IN LAST 25 NFL ATS PICKS | +312
12-3-1 IN LAST 16 LAR ATS PICKS | +872

2-1 IN LAST 3 PIT ATS PICKS | +90

KANSAS CITY -3.5
KANSAS CITY @ TENNESSEE | 11/10 | 1:00 PM EST
WED 11/6
I like the Chiefs no matter who the quarterback is. They have so much speed on offense. Ryan Tannehill showed what he's about last week -- no awareness of where the rush was coming from. Lay the modest number.

14-10-1 IN LAST 25 NFL ATS PICKS | +312
2-1 IN LAST 3 TEN ATS PICKS | +90

2-1 IN LAST 3 KC ATS PICKS | +90

SAN FRANCISCO -6
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO | 11/11 | 8:15 PM EST
WED 11/6
San Francisco has had extra time to prepare, and the 49ers have gotten healthier on offense. Seattle has no defense. The Seahawks should have lost last week to Tampa Bay. Russell Wilson is going to meet Nick Bosa, and it's not going to be easy for the Seahawks. The 49ers didn't show everything against Arizona last week. This week they'll pull out all the stops.

14-10-1 IN LAST 25 NFL ATS PICKS | +312
5-2-2 IN LAST 9 SEA ATS PICKS | +278

DALLAS -3
MINNESOTA @ DALLAS | 11/10 | 8:20 PM EST
WED 11/6
Dallas really shut down Saquon Barkley last week. The Cowboys' defense is pretty healthy. This is a primetime game, which means Kirk Cousins isn't going to play well. On the other side, Minnesota's secondary is vulnerable and Amari Cooper is unstoppable right now. Lay the points.

14-10-1 IN LAST 25 NFL ATS PICKS | +312
9-1 IN LAST 10 MIN ATS PICKS | +791

CAROLINA +5
CAROLINA @ GREEN BAY | 11/10 | 4:25 PM EST
WED 11/6
What the Packers did last week was a disgrace. Carolina has a very good defense that can pressure Aaron Rodgers. It's not an easy team to move the ball against. And it doesn't matter what kind of weather it is -- Christian McCaffrey can run in anything. Take the points.

14-10-1 IN LAST 25 NFL ATS PICKS | +312
5-3 IN LAST 8 GB ATS PICKS | +175

BUFFALO +3
BUFFALO @ CLEVELAND | 11/10 | 1:00 PM EST
WED 11/6
Cleveland's offense is a mess, and the Browns' coaching is a mess too. Buffalo's defense is good and quarterback Josh Allen does just enough. The Bills are going to give Baker Mayfield a hard time; the wrong team is favored here.

14-10-1 IN LAST 25 NFL ATS PICKS | +312
7-2 IN LAST 9 BUF ATS PICKS | +479

5-1 IN LAST 6 CLE ATS PICKS | +389

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R.J. White

SUPER STAT GEEK

A CBS Sports NFL editor, R.J. twice has cashed huge in the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest. In 2017 he tied for 18th out of 2,748 contestants with a 52-29-4 mark against the spread. In 2015 he tied for 39th out of 1,727 entries with a 51-32-2 record. R.J. consistently crushes the NFL for SportsLine members: All-time he's 265-218-22 on ATS picks, returning $2,335 to $100 players. R.J. has many years of experience analyzing NFL statistics and trends, beginning with Super Bowl XXV.

R.J.'s
Picks (12 Live)
SEATTLE +6
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO | 11/11 | 8:15 PM EST
FRI 11/8
I know this spot favors the 49ers coming off long rest and with the Seahawks having played an overtime game. But how do you not take Russell Wilson getting this many points? The Seahawks have been 'dogs of six points or more just five times since Russell Wilson joined the team and covered them all, winning twice outright. Furthermore, they're 20-7-2 ATS in primetime since 2012, including 4-1 when 'dogs of more than a field goal. If they protect the ball against an opportunistic defense (and come on, it's Russell we're talking about), they should keep this one close.

2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS | +85
13-9-2 IN LAST 24 SEA ATS PICKS | +291

L.A. RAMS -3.5
L.A. RAMS @ PITTSBURGH | 11/10 | 4:25 PM EST
FRI 11/8
The Steelers defense has been great since adding Minkah Fitzpatrick, and it's helped cover up that the Steelers offense is not playing well at all against defenses with a pulse. I don't think that changes against a Rams defense that actually ranks higher in DVOA and hasn't even had Jalen Ramsey all year. The Rams offense started slow but has played well in four of its last five, and the Rams are 6-0 ATS in the Eastern time zone under Sean McVay. Another reason it's a good spot for the Rams: Road favorites coming off a bye are 35-23 ATS since 2011 and 15-5 in their last 20.

2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS | +85
24-10-1 IN LAST 35 LAR ATS PICKS | +1267

16-8 IN LAST 24 PIT ATS PICKS | +713

TAMPA BAY -4.5
ARIZONA @ TAMPA BAY | 11/10 | 1:00 PM EST
FRI 11/8
This line dropped a point after the Cardinals looked competitive against the 49ers, but I'm on the other side for a few reasons. This is a huge game for Bruce Arians against his former team, and in that spot players go all out to give their coach a positive result. Arizona's offense is keyed off a strong running game, but they're going up against the best rush defense in the league, per DVOA. That puts the game on Kyler Murray as a passer, and he's not quite there yet for me. Tampa Bay's offense got on the same page last week and should roll against a team whose three wins came against awful teams.

2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS | +85
18-6-3 IN LAST 27 TB ATS PICKS | +1124

13-10-2 IN LAST 25 ARI ATS PICKS | +188

DETROIT +2.5
DETROIT @ CHICAGO | 11/10 | 1:00 PM EST
THU 11/7
I don't really get this line. The Lions were +2.5 at Oakland, and aren't the Raiders better than this Bears team with its awful offense? The Lions are capable of scoring a lot of points with Matthew Stafford having the best year maybe of his entire career, and I think the Bears will only be able to slow them down so much. It'll be up to Mitchell Trubisky to score enough points to win, and I don't know how you can have any confidence in that happening, even against a bad defense. We're getting points with Stafford in a QB matchup with Trubisky -- doesn't that seem like great value?

2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS | +85
24-11-1 IN LAST 36 CHI ATS PICKS | +1207

5-1 IN LAST 6 DET ATS PICKS | +386

OVER 46.5
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO | 11/11 | 8:15 PM EST
WED 11/6
The Seahawks opened up their No. 1 pass DVOA last week and looked nearly unstoppable in a win over the Bucs, and even though San Francisco has the No. 1 pass defense, I don't think they can completely shut down MVP front-runner Russell Wilson. The Seahawks also love running the ball, and the 49ers rank just 20th in DVOA there. The San Francisco offense shouldn't have an issue moving the ball on Seattle's unit, and I expect this one to be a shootout. Hop on now because the total is only going up.

17-13 IN LAST 30 NFL O/U PICKS | +269
MIAMI +10.5
MIAMI @ INDIANAPOLIS | 11/10 | 4:05 PM EST
WED 11/6
The Colts have done nothing to be this big of favorites against any team. Their biggest win this year is by seven points, and with T.Y. Hilton and possibly Jacoby Brissett out for this one, I can't expect the scoring to suddenly explode on their end. The Miami offense has proved functional with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, and that's helped the team cover four straight games. Throw in the Colts being shaky in the kicking game, and this could definitely be a case of them winning but not covering this massive number.

2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS | +85
22-9-1 IN LAST 32 IND ATS PICKS | +1188

OVER 51.5
ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS | 11/10 | 1:00 PM EST
WED 11/6
I expect Matt Ryan back for this game, so I'm going to hop on the Over now before the total has a chance to rise. Even though the Saints defense has played well over their last five games in terms of yardage, the team has given up 24 points or more in five of their games on the year. The Falcons have a good pass offense that can put some points on the board, but the defense can't stop anyone, as they rank last in percentage of drives allowing a score and last in turnover percentage. I expect this indoors game is going well Over the total.

17-13 IN LAST 30 NFL O/U PICKS | +269
7-3-1 IN LAST 11 ATL O/U PICKS | +370

UNDER 43.5
N.Y. GIANTS @ N.Y. JETS | 11/10 | 1:00 PM EST
WED 11/6
The Jets offense ranks 32nd in many categories, including DVOA, and it's past the point where we should give them the benefit of the doubt and write off the Luke Falk starts. You can't trust them even against a bad defense like the Giants have. The Jets do rank first in yards per rush allowed on defense, and those their pass D has been bad, the Giants will be missing two of their top pass catchers with Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram on the shelf. That tells me this is going to be an ugly, low-scoring game, so I'm hopping on the Under here.

17-13 IN LAST 30 NFL O/U PICKS | +269
5-0 IN LAST 5 NYJ O/U PICKS | +500

BUFFALO +3
BUFFALO @ CLEVELAND | 11/10 | 1:00 PM EST
WED 11/6
This is a curious line, considering how much turmoil the Browns are enduring right now. You can make an argument that Buffalo's 6-2 record is built on beating bad teams, but isn't that what the Browns are at this point? Neither of these offenses are good, but at least Buffalo can have success with the run as the Browns rank 29th in yards per rush allowed. The Buffalo defense ranks third in points per drive and net yards per pass attempt, so I don't see Baker Mayfield breaking through here. The Bills have won all three road games so far, and they definitely have the coaching edge, so they're a great value.

2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS | +85
9-5 IN LAST 14 BUF ATS PICKS | +353

10-6-1 IN LAST 17 CLE ATS PICKS | +345

KANSAS CITY -3.5
KANSAS CITY @ TENNESSEE | 11/10 | 1:00 PM EST
WED 11/6
Patrick Mahomes should be back this week, and that should set the Chiefs up for an easy win against a Titans team that hasn't played many good offenses this year. That Tennessee defense has been pretty mediocre over their last three games, and with the team stronger against the run than pass, this is a tailor-made matchup for Mahomes. On the other side of the ball, the Titans rank 26th in points per drive and 29th in percentage of drives that end in a score. They also brought Ryan Succop back from IR last week only to watch him go 0 for 3 on field goals. There are more than enough reasons to trust the Chiefs here.

2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS | +85
22-13 IN LAST 35 TEN ATS PICKS | +755

GREEN BAY -5
CAROLINA @ GREEN BAY | 11/10 | 4:25 PM EST
TUE 11/5
I like jumping on the Packers here coming off an atrocious offensive effort, especially since the offense had been just fine over the first half of the season. It'll be important for the Packers to get back on track heading into their Week 11 bye, and they should have success against a Panthers defense that has been pretty mediocre over its last four games. Carolina is especially bad against the run, so if Green Bay can get an early lead, they should be able to stay ahead by grinding out first downs, and I'm not worried about Kyle Allen rallying for a backdoor cover.

2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS | +85
29-6 IN LAST 35 GB ATS PICKS | +2227

8-6 IN LAST 14 CAR ATS PICKS | +144

DALLAS -3
MINNESOTA @ DALLAS | 11/10 | 8:20 PM EST
MON 11/4
The Vikings offense dazzled through inferior competition in October then went to Kansas City and was held to just 308 yards of offense as Kirk Cousins looked inaccurate throughout the day. While in most cases I would expect positive regression after that type of performance against a top offense, there's no chance I can trust Cousins against an excellent team on the road on primetime. The Cowboys defense had yet another game holding their opponent under 300 yards on Monday night, giving them five such performances on the year. I like them to get a sixth in this one while the Vikings offense has trouble slowing a balanced, elite offense.

2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS | +85
28-7-2 IN LAST 37 MIN ATS PICKS | +2005

16-12-1 IN LAST 29 DAL ATS PICKS | +266

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Lee Sterling
30 Browns, Jets, Boys
25 KC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matthew Stafford (back) is out for Week 10 against the Bears.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr Bob
2* Chargers - Lost
1* Chargers Under -Lost
1* Atlanta +13
1* Green bay -5
1*Dallas
2* Indy/Miami Over 43.5
Strong opinion Teaser Detroit and Jets

[Can'tPickAWinner]

sharp props so far
Devin Singletary over 60.5 rushing yards to win 1.0 units (-112 Draftkings)
Mike Gesicki over 35.5 receiving yards to win 0.5 units
Jonnu Smith over 2.5 receptions to win 0.5 units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Missanelli

Browns
rams

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

---

53 - 68 YTD NCAAF & NFL

5-0 yesterday NCAAF

NFL
1:00 PM EST
Rotation #255-256
Bucs -4.5 over Cardinals

NFL
1:00 PM EST
Rotation #257-258
Giants -3 over Jets
Giants/Jets over 44

NFL
1:00 PM EST
Rotation #265-266
Bears -6.5 over Lions

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ELITE SPORTS PICKS

Bears

[Can'tPickAWinner]

INSIDER SPORTS REPORT

4* Falcons/Saints OVER 51.5

3* Cardinals+4.5

3* Panthers+4.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE

5* Bears-2.5

3* Titans+6

Rams-4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Primetime Sports Picks For 11/10/19

4 Unit --> Arizona +4.5 over Tampa Bay (NFL)

3 Unit --> Cleveland -2.5 over Buffalo (NFL)

3 Unit --> Miami +10.5 over Indianapolis (NFL)