Thursday 11-7-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Best spot bets for the NFL Week 10 odds: Baltimore bettors in a bad situation
Jason Logan

The Ravens have shown a tendency to play down to opponents, going 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings with a losing team, and are just 3-5 ATS on the year.

With nine weeks of NFL season on the tires, teams can be even more susceptible to situational spots – AKA spots bets – in the backend of the schedule. Football bettors will want to give the calendar a once-over while handicapping the NFL odds, circling the possible letdowns, lookaheads, and schedule spots that could hold value.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan does just that in NFL Week 10, giving his favorite spot bet opportunities and how they could impact this Sunday’s outcomes.

LETDOWN SPOT: BALTIMORE RAVENS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (+10. 45.5)

There are few bigger highs than taking a win from the Patriots. That’s where we find the Baltimore Ravens in Week 10, playing the downtrodden Cincinnati Bengals a week removed from putting the boots to Brady & Co.

Baltimore not only has to deal with that change in intensity – from battling an undefeated Super Bowl champ to facing an 0-8 Bengals teams starting rookie QB Ryan Finley – but takes a sour smack of a situational sandwich, walking into a possible lookahead spot as well, with a huge home stand against Houston in Week 11 (which could have playoff seeding implications).

The Ravens have shown a tendency to play down to opponents, going 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings with a losing team, and are just 3-5 ATS on the year. Baltimore blew away Miami in Week 1, battled hard for a win in Seattle in Week 7, and upset New England at home last week. But the Ravens failed to cover versus the likes of Arizona, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and these very Bengals in Week 6.


LOOKAHEAD SPOT: MIAMI DOLPHINS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-10.5, 44)

If any team was going to look past this week’s foe, the Colts have the best case. Indianapolis was biting its nails while waiting for word on QB Jacoby Brissett’s health after he suffered a knee injury last Sunday. Brissett looks like he avoided any serious damage but his status for Week 10’s home date versus Miami is still undetermined.

While he may be able to grit it out, the Colts might not need him to suit up to upend the Dolphins, and backup Brian Hoyer may get the nod. Even if Brissett does play, expect the team to protect any further injury as they plan for a big divisional matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 11.

The Jaguars are coming off the bye week and making a move to the returning Nick Foles at QB, benching rookie passer and pop-culture phenomenon Gardner Minshew. Indianapolis will be playing it safe ahead of that divisional dance and brings a 0-5-1 ATS mark in its last six meetings with losing teams into a Week 10 game against one of the NFL's worst.


SCHEDULE SPOT: ARIZONA CARDINALS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-4.5, 51)

It’s a pirate’s life for the Buccaneers, who have been out to sea for nearly 50 days before making port at Raymond James Stadium in Week 10. Tampa Bay is coming off a grueling stretch of games away from home, starting at L.A. in Week 4 and spanning a trip to London, England in Week 6, a bye in Week 7, and back-to-back controversial losses at Tennessee and Seattle the past two outings.

This matchup with the Cardinals is just Tampa Bay’s third true road game of the season, having lost the other two to San Francisco and the New York Giants. There’s a lot of motivation to get the football-starved Florida faithful a victory this Sunday and the home-field edge could be just what the Buccaneers need to get over the hump after four of their six losses were decided by a touchdown or less.

The Bucs could easily be taking a two-game winning streak into this matchup with Arizona, if not for some botched calls by the officials in Weeks 8 and 9. We saw the Oakland Raiders in a similar schedule spot in Week 9, returning home for the first time after a 49-day period with a bang: winning and covering as 2-point chalk over Detroit last Sunday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

by: Josh Inglis


MVP PATH GOES THROUGH SAN FRAN

The San Francisco 49ers stand as the only undefeated team in the league having won against QBs Kyler Murray, Kyle Allen, Case Keenum, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph in the last month and a half.

Out of all those signal callers, the more mobile Murray was the one whose offense put up 357 yards (the most San Francico has allowed this year) and 19 first downs (the most allowed since Week 2). This Monday, the 49ers will start a tough schedule where they have to play three Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks in a month, starting with the league’s MVP frontrunner: Russell Wilson.

Wilson is coming into this matchup with a league-best passer rating of 118.2 and 22 touchdowns to one interception. The Seattle Seahawks QB will have to use his legs and elusiveness to breakdown the league’s best DVOA pass defense and aggressive pass rush.

Wilson will face a San Fran defense that plays zone more than nearly every other team in the league. Per Sharp Football, Wilson picks up 9.3 yards per attempt and has a 61-percent success versus zone defenses, compared to 6.7 YPA and 45 percent versus man coverage.

This is good news for the Seahawks receivers D.K. Metcalf, Jaron Brown and Josh Gordon, who average six-foot-three and nearly 220 pounds. Look for Wilson to use that size advantage versus the smaller San Francisco secondary while also allowing Tyler Lockett to do what he does: 19 catches for 252 yards and two scores in his last two games.

San Francisco's loss of linebacker Kwon Alexander is also a huge problem as he was ranked as the best coverage linebacker in the league per ProFootballFocus.

We like the Seahawks +6. They are also 3-1 ATS on the road this year with the only ATS loss being a 7-point win in Atlanta as 7.5-point chalk.


JONES EATS WITH THE LEAD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Ronald Jones started again last week and outperformed Peyton Barber for the second straight week.

In games where Jones receives at least 14 carries (three games), the RB is averaging 4.3 yards per carry with two TDs. The problem for Jones lies in the game flow. If Tampa Bay is playing from behind, then third-down back Dare Ogunbowale will get the majority of the snaps. With the 3-5-1 Arizona Cardinals on deck for Sunday, the Bucs will have a much better shot at playing with the lead as 4.5-point home favorites.

The Cardinals sit 23rd in rush attempts against at 28 and are allowing 4.5 yards per carry. However, stay away from the Jones anytime TD prop as Arizona is tied for third fewest rushing TDs allowed.

We like Jones’ total yards prop better than just rushing as he has been steadily chipping in one or two grabs a game and averaging 15.5 yards per reception. Take the Over on Jones’ total yards on any number below 82.


THURSDAY NIGHT AIR RAID

No team in the league has allowed more passing touchdowns than the Oakland Raiders. So far in 2019, Jon Gruden’s team is giving up 2.7 touchdowns through the air per game and is allowing a tasty 3.7 passing TDs a game over its last three.

This is great news for Los Angeles Chargers QB Philip Rivers, whose team is coming off a dominating performance versus Green Bay last week where Rivers tossed for 294 yards but no touchdown passes. Rivers has not been held to zero touchdowns in back-to-back games since December 2015 and has 45 TDs in 26 career games against the Raiders including three straight games of two or more versus his AFC West rivals.

We are jumping on the Rivers Over 1.5 TDs play for some Thursday Night Football action.


SOMEONE HAS TO WIN THIS GAME

Just when things were getting exciting for the Giants as the offense was finally getting healthy, Sterling Shepard re-entered concussion protocol before Monday night’s game and now Evan Engram is dealing with a foot injury.

Having lost five straight games while averaging a league-worst 2.4 giveaways, things are looking bleak ahead of their game against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on Sunday.

Speaking of turnovers, this game could easily feature half a dozen as the Jets are just as bad at keeping the ball, turning it over 3.3 times over their last three games. Despite all the poor quarterback play from both teams, playing on a short week won’t help the Giants get healthier versus a Jets team that just lost to the lowly Dolphins – an added motivation.

We’re grabbing the home dogs at +3 as it looks as if that line will move under that key number, with some markets already showing +2.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TNF - Chargers at Raiders
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK
For the first time this season, the Chargers (4-5 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) are coming off consecutive victories after dominating the Packers, 26-11 as four-point home underdogs. Although Los Angeles didn’t score its first touchdown until the second half, the Chargers owned a 9-0 halftime lead and were aided by a pair of Melvin Gordon short touchdown runs to build a commanding 26-3 advantage.

The Chargers picked up their first home win since a Week 1 overtime triumph over the Colts as L.A.’s defense stepped up by holding Green Bay to 13 first downs and 184 total yards. The Lightning Bolts posted 442 yards of offense, its highest output since a Week 2 loss at Detroit when Los Angeles racked up 424 yards offensively in spite of scoring only 10 points. Philip Rivers was held without a touchdown pass for the first time in four games, but Gordon busted out with 80 yards rushing after putting up 112 yards in the previous four contests combined.

The Raiders (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS) climbed back to the .500 mark after holding off the Lions, 31-24 at the Coliseum last Sunday. Rookie Josh Jacobs found the end zone twice in the first half, while quarterback Derek Carr hit Hunter Renfrow on the go-ahead touchdown for Oakland with two minutes remaining in regulation. Detroit had an opportunity to tie the game in the final seconds with four and goal at the Oakland 1-yard line, but Matthew Stafford’s pass was incomplete and the Raiders grabbed their first home victory since Week 1 against Denver.

Jacobs has topped the 120-yard rushing mark for the third time in four games, while the Raiders are 3-0 when he scores a touchdown (he has actually scored twice in all three of those wins). Carr has been intercepted only once in the last five games, leading the Raiders to at least 24 points or more in five consecutive contests. The Raiders are allowing the most passing yards per game by averaging nearly 300 a contest, as Stafford and Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers each threw for over 400 yards in two of the past three weeks.

SERIES HISTORY
It’s been all Chargers the last two seasons against their rivals from the East Bay as Los Angeles is 4-0 both straight up and against the spread. Oakland actually posted a 4-0 mark against the Lightning Bolts from 2015-2016, which included three wins by three points each. The Chargers broke that four-game skid with a 17-16 triumph in Oakland in October 2017, followed by a 30-10 rout in the season finale at home.

In Jon Gruden’s return to the Raiders’ sidelines last season, the Raiders couldn’t figure out the Chargers in a pair of double-digit defeats that each finished ‘under’ the total. The Bolts cruised past the Raiders at home, 26-10 as five-point favorites in Week 5 of 2018, led by 339 yards passing and two touchdown passes by Rivers. Los Angeles took care of Oakland at the Black Hole in the next meeting five weeks later, 20-6 as 10 ½-point favorites, highlighted by two touchdown tosses from Rivers, including a 66-yard scoring play to Gordon.

TWO MUCH?
The Raiders have won back-to-back games only once since Gruden came back to Oakland in 2018 and that was earlier this season in victories over the Colts and Bears. Both came as an underdog and both came away from the Coliseum, as Oakland is 0-4 since last season off a home win. The Chargers are fresh off their first two-game winning streak of the season, while playing only their second division opponent of 2019 after losing to Denver back in Week 5.

TRUST THE CHALK?
The Chargers won their last two games in the underdog role against the Bears and Packers, but Anthony Lynn’s squad has covered only once when laying points this season, coming at Miami in Week 4 as 15-point favorites. Thursday night favorites this season have cashed twice in nine opportunities, including a pair of straight up wins/non-covers the last two weeks with the Vikings and 49ers as double-digit chalk not covering the spread in victories. The only road favorite to win and cover on Thursday night this season did so in a battle of AFC West teams in Week 7 when the Chiefs blew out the Broncos, 30-3.

TOTAL TALK
The 2019 Thursday Night Football matchup has had solid back-and-forth total results with the ‘under’ holding a 5-4 record and that includes the Week 1 outcome between the Packers and Bears.

Of the nine games, six of them were divisional matchups and the ‘under’ has produced a 4-2 record in those contests but the two ‘over’ tickets did occur on the West Coast.

Will that trend continue this week at RingCentral Coliseum from Oakland? Chris David of VegasInsider.com offered up his thoughts on this total.

“Part of my handicapping philosophy is that results usually find a way to balance out in the long run and we saw that firsthand last Sunday when the home teams finally showed up. Sticking with that thought and this divisional matchup, we’re starting to see an uptick in totals for these games. The ‘under’ went 19-10 (66%) in divisional matchups through the first six weeks of the season but the ‘over’ has posted a 7-3 (70%) mark over the previous three weekends,” said David.

Backing the ‘over’ in this game could be a reach for some, especially when you look at the recent encounters. The ‘under’ has cashed in five straight games between the Chargers and Raiders, all of them clear-cut winners too with a combined score of 34 PPG.

David offered up his lean, “It’s a bit of a head-scratcher to see a line get juiced up from 47 ½ to 49 when the Chargers have been the best ‘under’ team (7-2) in the NFL. Los Angeles certainly has the ability to move the chains but its inability to cash in the red zone is beyond frustrating. This season, the Bolts have 17 field goals and 18 touchdowns, not a good ratio for ‘over’ tickets.”

“While that production certainly could make you hesitant to back them or the high side, we did see the Chargers put up 33 and 29 points in two road games played in the primetime slots last season. I’m going to buy L.A. and its sporadic offense against a suspect Raiders of the defense. If they put up sixes instead of threes, the Team Total Over (24) will connect easily.”

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
NFL expert Joe Nelson checks in with his analysis on the improvement on the offensive side of the ball for the Silver and Black, “The offense for the Raiders has been exceptional with a great rebound season from Carr who is 6th in QB Rating in the NFL. Oakland is 6th in passing yards per attempt, but the scoring has been middle-of-the-pack, averaging just below 23 points per game and sitting 20th in yards per point as there have been some red zone issues and a negative turnover differential.”

The upcoming schedules for these teams should be telling ahead according to Nelson, “The Chargers are on the road three of the next four weeks and the next two home games are against the Chiefs and the Vikings as the playoff opportunity for this team isn’t likely. This team remains capable of high-level performances and a late season run shouldn’t be ruled out while this team could be an attractive underdog in many upcoming games.”

On the flip side, if things break right for the Raiders, Nelson notes this could be a Wild Card team, “If Oakland can win this week they draw the Bengals and Jets the next two weeks before heading to Kansas City. If Oakland wins the games they are favored in, 10-6 is possible which should be enough in most scenarios for a playoff spot in the AFC.”

PLAYER PROPS – According to Westgate Superbook
Total Completions – Philip Rivers (LAC)
Over 23 ½ (-110)
Under 23 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Philip Rivers (LAC)
Over 1 ½ (-180)
Under 1 ½ (+150)

Total Rushing Yards – Melvin Gordon (LAC)
Over 60 ½ (-110)
Under 60 ½ (-110)

Will Melvin Gordon (LAC) Score a Touchdown?
Yes -125
No +105

Total Gross Passing Yards – Derek Carr (OAK)
Over 259 ½ (-110)
Under 259 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Derek Carr (OAK)
Over 1 ½ (-140)
Under 1 ½ (+120)

Total Rushing Yards – Josh Jacobs (OAK)
Over 84 ½ (-110)
Under 84 ½ (-110)

LINE MOVEMENT
The Raiders opened as a one-point home favorite at the Westgate Superbook on Sunday evening, but the Chargers were flipped to a 1 ½-point favorite by Monday afternoon. Los Angeles has settled at that number for most of the week, while the total has moved up from 47 ½ to 49. The first half line is currently Los Angeles -½ (+105), while the total sits at 23 ½ (Over -120).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL trends for Week 10:

— Buffalo covered seven of its last ten games.

— Carolina is 24-12 ATS in last 36 games as a road underdog.

— Chicago covered eight of its last nine NFC North games.

— Ravens are 9-4 ATS in last 13 AFC North road games.

— Arizona covered seven of its last ten games.

— Dallas is 8-3-1 ATS in last dozen home games.

— Titans are 8-16-2 ATS in last 26 games as a home underdog.

— Tampa Bay is 4-13 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite.

— Seattle covered its last five games as a divisional road dog.

— Vikings covered 12 of last 17 games as a road underdog.

— New Orleans won/covered its last six games.

— Green Bay covered 12 of its last 17 games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

111TEMPLE -112 S FLORIDA
TEMPLE is 14-4 ATS (9.6 Units) in road games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Thursday, November 7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA LAFAYETTE (6 - 2) at COASTAL CAROLINA (4 - 4) - 11/7/2019, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAFAYETTE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAFAYETTE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAFAYETTE is 45-25 ATS (+17.5 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
LA LAFAYETTE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAFAYETTE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
COASTAL CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
COASTAL CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
COASTAL CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TEMPLE (5 - 3) at S FLORIDA (4 - 4) - 11/7/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEMPLE is 108-80 ATS (+20.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
S FLORIDA is 2-0 against the spread versus TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons
S FLORIDA is 1-1 straight up against TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 11

Trend Report


Thursday, November 7

Louisiana-Lafayette @ Coastal Carolina
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Lafayette is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Louisiana-Lafayette is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Coastal Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Coastal Carolina's last 6 games
Coastal Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games

Temple @ South Florida
Temple
Temple is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Temple's last 6 games
South Florida
The total has gone OVER in 5 of South Florida's last 6 games
South Florida is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 11


Thursday’s games
UL-Lafayette won six of last seven games, running ball for 611 yards in last two; they scored 119 points in winning all three of their road games TY. Cajuns are are 7-1-2 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite, 2-0 TY- their last three games stayed under total. Coastal Carolina snapped a 3-game skid with a 36-35 win over Troy LW; Chanticleers are 4-6 ATS as a home underdog since joining I-A ball, 1-1 TY- five of their last six games went over. Coastal (+3.5) won 30-28 LY in Lafayette, in first series meeting, running ball for 311 yards.

Underdogs covered four of last five Temple-USF games, winning three times SU; home side won all five series games. Owls lost 43-7/44-23 in their two visits here. Temple was held to 114 YR in losing its last two games, 45-21/63-21; Owls are 0-2 ATS as a road favorite TY, after being 10-2-1 in previous 13 tries- their last three games went over the total. Temple held four of last five foes under 200 RY. South Florida is 4-0 when it runs for 213+ yards, 0-4 when it doesn’t; Bulls are 2-5 ATS in last seven games as a home underdog, 1-2 TY. Five of their last six games went over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 11


Thursday, November 7

LA-Lafayette @ Coastal Carolina

Game 109-110
November 7, 2019 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA-Lafayette
90.837
Coastal Carolina
72.854
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA-Lafayette
by 18
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA-Lafayette
by 14
58
Dunkel Pick:
LA-Lafayette
(-14); Under

Temple @ South Florida

Game 111-112
November 7, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Temple
78.546
South Florida
79.558
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
South Florida
by 1
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Temple
by 1 1/2
50
Dunkel Pick:
South Florida
(+1 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 11 Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Nov. 7

Matchup Skinny
Edge

UL-LAFAYETTE at COASTAL CAROLINA...Cajuns hot 7-1 vs. line TY, now 14-2-2 last 18 reg season games on board! Napier 9-0-1 vs. spread last ten away from Lafayette in reg season. Chants did score mild 30-28 upset LY.
ULL, based on recent trends.


TEMPLE at SOUTH FLORIDA...Owls have taken a licking in their last two TY and in fact are 0-3 SU and vs. spread away. Home team 7-1 vs. spread in Temple games TY, but Bulls just 4-10 vs. spread last 14 in Tampa.
Slight to USF, based on team trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Temple at USF
Joe Nelson

With football every night of the week in early November, the Thursday night game will have a harder time standing out and a matchup in the AAC this Thursday isn’t an alluring national draw as Temple visits South Florida. Both teams are tied at 2-2 in conference play and the victor will get a big boost towards the postseason.

Venue: Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida
Time/TV: Thursday, November 7, 8:00 PM ET ESPN
Line: Temple -1, Over/Under 50
Last Meeting: 2018 at Temple (-14) 27, South Florida 17

Temple had a messy off-season after Geoff Collins left the program after two seasons to take over at Georgia Tech. The Owls hired Miami defensive coordinator Manny Diaz, but a few weeks later, he was brought back to Miami after Mark Richt retired. Rod Carey was hired after a successful run at Northern Illinois and is now the fifth coach for the program since 2006, not counting Diaz or interim coach Ed Foley.

Temple hasn’t been thought of as one of the top Group of 5 programs often but since 2015, the Owls are 40-22 S/U and 40-22 ATS for records that few programs can match. Temple is 5-3 this season with erratic results beating Maryland and Georgia Tech as well as Memphis, but taking a loss to Buffalo and now outscored 108-42 in the past two AAC games.

Carey’s track record promoted running the ball and stopping the run with the Huskies ranking third nationally in per carry run defense last season. So far this season, Temple has held foes to 189 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per carry for average numbers. The Owls have better numbers against the pass, 34th nationally in allowing 6.8 yards per attempt while 6th nationally in opposing quarterback completion percentage.

Temple’s offense has struggled, sitting at the bottom of the AAC posting just 4.6 yards per play. The Owls are one of the nation’s worst rushing teams posting just 3.3 yards per attempt and 132 yards per game on the ground. Junior quarterback Anthony Russo is asked to do a lot and he has thrown for more than 1,800 yards this season with 16 touchdowns but also eight interceptions. He hasn’t had a 300 yard passing game vs. FBS competition this season and he had a marginal game vs. USF last season passing for 264 yards, but with no touchdowns and just 59 percent completions.

Temple draws difficult games with Tulane and Cincinnati the next two weeks but will have a favorable finale at home vs. Connecticut should they still be searching for win #6 to claim a fourth bowl bid in five seasons, though the program hasn’t won a bowl game since 2011 under Steve Addazio coming out the MAC.

USF went 11-2 under Willie Taggart (as well as TJ Weist for the bowl game) in the 2016 season. Taggart left for Oregon and then Florida State and he is now out of a job, though with full pockets. Charlie Strong was a rising star going 37-15 in four seasons at Louisville before a mediocre three-year run at Texas. He seemed to land on his feet in Tampa with a 10-2 first season with the Bulls in 2017, nearly ousting undefeated UCF for the division title and also beating a Big Ten team in non-conference play and a Big XII team in bowl action.

It appeared to be more of the same last season for Strong with early season wins over ACC and Big Ten teams and a 7-0 start led by Alabama and Arizona State transfer Blake Barnett at quarterback. USF would close the season losing six straight including the Gasparilla Bowl at home in Tampa. In a hyped opening game with Wisconsin in 2019, the Bulls lost 49-0, but since a 1-3 start, USF has turned around to go 3-1 the past four games with a notable home win over BYU.

This is a critical game for USF as they will face three of the top American teams in the next three games and any hopes of returning to a bowl game will likely require a win this week. Barnett was benched early in the year and Jordan McCloud has had mixed results as a freshman quarterback. He is much smaller in stature and more of a rushing threat and the offense now leans on the rushing attack led by senior Jordan Cronkrite, who has amassed nearly 600 yards on 5.4 yards per carry including 100+ yards in each of the past three wins.

USF ranks 36th nationally in yards per rush at 4.9, a spot ahead of the Badgers team they were blown out by in the opener. Few teams gain fewer passing yards than the Bulls as this is a matchup of contrasting offenses. USF’s defense has slightly better pass defense numbers than run defense numbers as well to mirror Temple.

Series History:
The host has won all four meetings between these teams going back to 2012 with USF’s underdog cover last season the only instance of the S/U winner not matching the ATS winner.

Last season:
Temple had clinched bowl eligibility the previous week with a 59-49 win at Houston and it had been a run of marquee games vs. top AAC contenders for the Owls including an overtime win over Cincinnati and a primetime loss to undefeated UCF in a very competitive game. It proved to be a flat spot for Temple as USF led 17-0 at halftime.

The tables turned after the break as up by 17, USF was stopped on 4th-and-1 just outside of field goal range. Temple answered with a touchdown and the second half went disastrously for the Bulls with five turnovers including allowing a fumble return touchdown as well as a punt return touchdown as Temple stormed back to take the lead in the fourth quarter and ultimately won 27-17. Temple had a 337-266 yardage edge and a 5-2 turnover edge. USF had a 184-73 edge in rushing yards and held on to cover at +14.

Historical Trends for Temple:
There aren’t many negative trends for Temple in recent years and the Owls are 11-4 ATS since 2014 as a road favorite while 27-13 ATS in all road games since 2013. Temple won but fell short of the spread playing on Thursday night at East Carolina in early October and is 0-3 ATS on the road this season. Rod Carey is 57-33 S/U in his career mostly as Northern Illinois before joining Temple this season, going 46-42-2 ATS including 13-9 ATS as a road favorite.

Historical Trends for USF:
Under Charlie Strong since 2017, USF is 11-6 S/U but 6-11 ATS at home including 2-4 ATS as a home underdog. USF is on a 25-36-3 ATS run in home games since 2010. Strong is 74-49 S/U in his career at Louisville, Texas and now USF while three games below .500 ATS though he is 26-20-1 ATS as an underdog in his career.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

571BOSTON -572 CHARLOTTE
CHARLOTTE is 80-116 ATS (-47.6 Units) after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread since 1996.

573OKLAHOMA CITY -574 SAN ANTONIO
SAN ANTONIO is 19-8 ATS (10.2 Units) in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game in the last 3 seasons.

575MIAMI -576 PHOENIX
MIAMI is 51-31 ATS (16.9 Units) in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season in the last 3 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, November 7


Boston @ Charlotte

Game 571-572
November 7, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
122.219
Charlotte
112.886
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 9 1/2
222
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 6 1/2
217 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-6 1/2); Over

Oklahoma City @ San Antonio

Game 573-574
November 7, 2019 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
116.628
San Antonio
123.331
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Antonio
by 6 1/2
218
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Antonio
by 4 1/2
214 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Antonio
(-4 1/2); Over

Miami @ Phoenix

Game 575-576
November 7, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
121.573
Phoenix
120.472
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 1
216
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Phoenix
by 1 1/2
219
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+1 1/2); Under

Portland @ LA Clippers

Game 577-578
November 7, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Portland
119.295
LA Clippers
122.322
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Clippers
by 3
221
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 5 1/2
225 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Portland
(+5 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Thursday, November 7

Celtics-Hornets
Celtics won their last five games (4-1 ATS);they won two of three road games (2-0 as RF). Four of their six games stayed under. Charlotte won its last three games, by 7-6-2 points; they’re 2-1 at home (2-1 as HU). Over is 4-3 in their games.

Home side won last five Boston-Charlotte games; Celtics are 2-2 ATS in last four visits here. Last five series games went over the total.

Thunder-Spurs
Oklahoma City won its last two games after a 1-4 start; six of their seven games went under the total. Thunder lost both their road games, by 5-4 points (2-0 as RU). San Antonio lost three of last four games after a 3-0 start; they’re 0-4 ATS as a home favorite. Three of their last four games went under the total.

Home side won last seven Thunder-Spur games; OKC is 0-5 ATS in last five trips to the Alamo. Under is 7-3 in last ten series games.

Heat-Suns
Miami won/covered three of last four games; they split four road games, are 2-1-1 ATS as an underdog. Heat’s last four games went under the total. Phoenix is 5-2 SU, 7-0 ATS, with their two losses by one point each; under is 4-2-1 in their games. Suns won three of their four home games.

Heat won eight of last ten games wit the Suns; they covered four of last five trips to the desert. Last four series games went over.

Trailblazers-Clippers
Kawhi Leonard is expected to play in this game. Portland lost three of its last four games; they’re 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS on road (2-0 as RU). Five of their last six games went over total.

Clippers lost six of last seven games with Portland; Trailblazers covered last five series games played here. Under is 6-2 in last eight series games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Thursday, November 7

Trend Report

Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games
Charlotte is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Charlotte's last 9 games
Charlotte is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Charlotte is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Charlotte's last 7 games at home
Charlotte is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Boston
Charlotte is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Charlotte's last 5 games when playing Boston
Charlotte is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Boston
Charlotte is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Charlotte's last 13 games when playing at home against Boston
Boston Celtics
Boston is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 8 games
Boston is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Boston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games on the road
Boston is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Charlotte
Boston is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Charlotte
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games when playing Charlotte
Boston is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Charlotte
Boston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Charlotte
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Boston's last 13 games when playing on the road against Charlotte

San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
San Antonio is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
San Antonio is 19-4 SU in its last 23 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 7 games at home
San Antonio is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Antonio's last 10 games when playing Oklahoma City
San Antonio is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio's last 7 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Oklahoma City is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oklahoma City's last 7 games
Oklahoma City is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Oklahoma City's last 10 games when playing San Antonio
Oklahoma City is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
Oklahoma City is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 7 games when playing on the road against San Antonio

Phoenix Suns
Phoenix is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Phoenix is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Phoenix's last 7 games
Phoenix is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Phoenix is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Phoenix's last 6 games at home
Phoenix is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Miami
Phoenix is 2-16 SU in its last 18 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing Miami
Phoenix is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Miami
Phoenix is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Phoenix's last 9 games when playing at home against Miami
Miami Heat
Miami is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Miami is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
Miami is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Miami is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Miami is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Phoenix
Miami is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Miami is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Miami is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 9 games when playing on the road against Phoenix

Los Angeles Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games
LA Clippers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
LA Clippers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 16 of LA Clippers's last 24 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games at home
LA Clippers is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Portland
LA Clippers is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games when playing Portland
LA Clippers is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Portland
LA Clippers is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Portland
LA Clippers is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Clippers's last 12 games when playing at home against Portland
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Portland is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 6 games
Portland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 6 games on the road
Portland is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing LA Clippers
Portland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
Portland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
Portland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
Portland is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Portland's last 12 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers