Sunday 11-10-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MARC LAWRENCE
NFL | Nov 10, 2019
Falcons vs. Saints
Falcons+14

Play - Atlanta Falcons (Game 259).

Edges - Falcons: 5-1 ATS last six games as double-digit dogs, and 24-10 ATS as a visitor in this series … Saints: 3-12 ATS as double-digit division home favorites … We recommend a 1* play on Atlanta. Thank you and good luck as always.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JACK BRAYMAN

My free play on Sunday is the Kansas City Chiefs laying the number to the Tennessee Titans. And I'm laying this with or without Pat Mahomes under center, as I don't think it will matter who is playing quarterback.

And as I will always tell you with favorites laying anywhere between -3 and -4.5, I want you buying the half point down.

The Chiefs head to Tennessee after an uplifting, time-expiring win last week against Minnesota. It was certainly a confidence boost, as they improved to 6-3 after racing out to a 4-0 start, but then losing three of four.

If Mahomes comes back, the team will be in great shape. Without him, they're in good shape. Matt Moore passed for 275 yards and a touchdown for a 103.9 rating last week. If he gets the nod, he'll look for his third straight with 250-plus yards and a 100-plus rating.

Running back Damien Williams earned the starting job off big performances late last season, and appears to be proving his coaches right in making him the lead running back. He ran 12 times for 125 yards, most of it coming on a 91-yard TD run, against the Vikings.

Meanwhile, the Titans blew their chance to climb above .500 last week, when they lost 30-20 at Carolina. They simply can't get out of their own way upon kickoff, and find themselves playing catch up when it's too late. The Titans continue to be a frustrating mistake-riddled team, and I don't care if it's playing at home or on the road, you can't make mistakes against a team like Kansas City.

The Chiefs have been knocked for their defense all season, but it's not as bad as one might think as the season progresses. Kansas City allowed an average of 406.1 yards per game over its first six contests. Over its last three it has given up an average of 295.6 yards per game, to Denver, Green Bay and Minnesota.

The Broncos aren't a big deal, but the latter two are.

And with the Oakland Raiders suddenly breathing heavily in the AFC West, the Chiefs can't afford to slip up this week, or next in Los Angeles against the Chargers. They have a bye week after that, and then host the Raiders.

Look for the Chiefs to take advantage of - and thrive against - the Titans' offensive line, which allowed four sacks last week and has allowed an NFL-worst 38 this season.

I'll gladly lay the points here, as the Chiefs are laying a value number.

5* CHIEFS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gridiron Angles - Week 10
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Cardinals are 10-0-1 ATS (.27 ppg) since Sep 18, 2011 as a road dog of no more than 13 points coming off a game where they allowed at least 400 total yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Buccaneers are 0-11-1 ATS (-7.25 ppg) since Oct 29, 2017 when their last two games both went over the total.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Cowboys are 9-0 ATS (9.56 ppg) since Oct 22, 2017 as a favorite coming off a game where Ezekiel Elliott had at least 20 rushes.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Browns are 0-12 OU (-8.21 ppg) since Dec 06, 2015 at home on grass when they are off two consecutive losses where they failed to cover.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Giants are 14-0 OU (8.57 ppg) since Dec 05, 2004 on the road off a loss as a dog where they allowed at least 150 rushing yards.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Giants are 0-14 ATS (-13.93 ppg) off a loss when they are facing a team that is averaging less than 278 offensive yards per game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Total Talk - Week 10
Joe Williams

It's Week 10 of the National Football League regular season, and we're already off to a quick start - kinda. The Thursday night battle between the Los Angeles Chargers-Oakland Raiders inched over the finish line for 50 points on a line of 49 at most shops. If you're scoring at home, primetime games have now watched the over connect in four straight, which is a season-long streak for games under the lights this season.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 9 10-4 9-5 6-8
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 66-69-1 65-69-1 60-71-4

The books were back on top in Week 9, but that was mostly due to side bets. The totals were 10-4 in favor of the 'over', which generally is a friend to the public bettor.

Bettors hoping for high-scoring games in Week 9 were very pleased, hitting the over in 10 of 14 outings The games got off to quick starts, too, with the over connecting in the first half in nine of 14 contests, with the 'under' going 8-6 in the second half last week. Through 135 games this season, the 'under' sits at 69-66-1 on the season and the low side also holds slight edges in both wagers for the first-half (69-65-1) and second-half (71-60-4).

Division Bell

In the four divisional battles in Week 9, three went over - including all three of the games on North American soil. Only the Houston Texans-Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley Stadium ended up going under the total, mostly due to the ineffectiveness of the Jags offense. The under is now 24-15 (61.5%) in divisional games this season.

Divisional Game Results Week 9
San Francisco at Arizona Over (43.5) San Francisco 28, Arizona 25
Houston vs. Jacksonville (London) Under (46) Houston 26, Jacksonville 3
N.Y. Jets at Miami Over (42.5) Miami 26, N.Y. Jets 18
Dallas at N.Y. Giants Over (48.5) Dallas 37, N.Y. Giants 18

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 10 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Detroit at Chicago: 44 to 41
N.Y. Giants at N.Y. Jets: 41 ½ to 44 ½
Seattle at San Francisco (MNF): 44 to 47
Buffalo at Cleveland: 42 ½ to 40
Minnesota at Dallas (SNF): 45 ½ to 48
L.A. Rams at Pittsburgh: 45 ½ to 43 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 10 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Detroit at Chicago: Under 92%
L.A. Rams at Pittsburgh: Under 92%
Miami at Indianapolis: Over 90%
Seattle at San Francisco (MNF): Over 89%
Buffalo at Cleveland: Under 87%
Atlanta at New Orleans: Over 77%
Kansas City at Tennessee: Over 77%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (72 percent) in the N.Y. Giants at N.Y. Jets matchup, and heavy lean on the 'over' in Carolina at Green Bay (66 percent) battle.

Handicapping Week 10

Week 9 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 3-1 16-23
NFC vs. NFC 1-1 15-15
AFC vs. AFC 3-0 14-10-1
AFC vs. NFC 3-2 21-20

Other Week 10 Action

Kansas City at Tennessee: The Chiefs have their big gun back, as QB Patrick Mahomes is expected to be under center after missing the past two due to a partially dislocated kneecap. The over actually hit in each of the past two without Mahomes, and the over is 6-3 in nine games overall. Kansas City is on the road, and there is no real lean here, as the total is 2-2 in four games away from home, all Mahomes starts. The Titans have hit the over in three in a row, scoring 23, 27 and 20, while allowing 20, 23 and 30. It's a big change after the under hit in five in a row from Week 2 through 6. The over is 6-2 in Tennessee's past eight at home, too.

Buffalo at Cleveland: The total has plummeted from 42.5 to 40, and is the lowest total on the board for Week 10. The 'under' opened 5-0 for Buffalo this season, and they were the last team in the NFL to see an 'over' result. The under has hit in all three of Buffalo's game this season, allowing just 12.3 PPG (16, 14 and 7). The under is 8-1 in the past nine overall for Buffalo, too. As far as the Browns are concerned, they were expected to do big things this season. So far, that's only happened once on the road in Week 4 at Baltimore (40 points), and one in Week 6 against Seattle (28 points). They have averaged 14 PPG in the other six outings.

While the Browns are actually favored in this game, keep this in mind...if they lose, season win total bettors will at least push the under 9 on tickets since they would drop to 2-7, with the most wins possible at 9. If the Bills win, they would be 7-2, cashing the over of six wins.

Arizona at Tampa Bay: Bucs head coach Bruce Arians will get a crack at his former team for the first time. This total is well in the fifties, sitting at 52.5 as of Saturday morning. Totals that have closed in the fifties this season have hit the over in 11 of 19 games (57.9 percent). If you remember the Thursday Night system, it's 5-3 this season (62.5 percent), getting back on track with Minnesota's over in Kansas City in Week 9. The home team in the previous Thursday night game has hit the over in five of eight games in their following game. Arizona was home to Frisco last time out, so is an over in the cards? The last time the Cardinals have hit the road for the Eastern Time Zone, they scored 17, 26 and 27 points. The 17 points came in Week 2 in Baltimore, as they left a lot of points on the board in QB Kyler Murray's first NFL road start. The Cards have 22 field goals so far this season, which is troublesome for over bettors. Tampa Bay's pass defense might help solve that, however, as they're downright awful. The over has hit in six straight for the Bucs. They have been favorites twice this season, losing both games while allowing 32 and 31 points.

N.Y. Giants at N.Y. Jets: The Jets offense has been abysmal outside of their lone victory against Dallas back on Oct. 13, scoring a season-best 24 points. They have averaged just 10.8 PPG in four games at home this season, with the 'under' 3-1 in their four games at MetLife. For the G-Men, the 'over' is a perfect 4-0 on the road - although this game is obviously in their very same building where they play their home games, just a different locker room. At MetLife they have scored 14, 24, 10, 21 and 18, hitting the 'under' in four of five. The only over at MetLife came last week against the aforementioned Cowboys, who manhandled the G-Men 37-18. Of course, that game was fortunate to go over, as there was a scoop and score with six seconds to flip the total to over.

Detroit at Chicago: The total has dropped from an open of 43.5 to 41.5, perhaps because the 'under' has cashed in four of the past six battles in this series. While that's all well and good, the 'over' has hit in each of the past two battles at Soldier Field, including a 34-22 Bears win on Nov. 11 last season. The over has been hot for Detroit lately, hitting in three straight, and five of the past six. It's been a combination of two things, as Detroit has scored 22 or more points in six in a row for the Lions, while yielding 23 or more points in each outing. The Bears offense has been poor, posting 16 or fewer points in five of their eight games, hitting the 'under' five times this season. The Chicago defense is also ranked sixth overall, allowing just 18 PPG.

Carolina at Green Bay: The Packers laid a huge egg last week on the road against the Chargers, scoring just 11 points. They nearly ended up in single digits except for a late touchdown and two-point conversion. They'll be glad to be back at Lambeau where they have totals of 21, 27, 27, 23 and 42, hitting the over in three of the past four. For the Panthers, the venue hasn't mattered lately, as they have cashed the over in four straight, and six of eight overall. The offense has produced 30 or more points three of the past four, and the defense has yielded 20 or more points in seven of eight this season. The key to this game will be two-fold. Carolina's pass defense ranks ninth in the NFL, so QB Aaron Rodgers faces a tough task. Green's rush defense is a dismal 24th in the league, so they'll have a difficult time slowing down RB QB Christian McCaffrey.

L.A. Rams at Pittsburgh: The Rams team total is 23.5, and they have hit that in three of the past four games. They're coming off a bye, and they have scored 30 and 51 in head coach Sean McVay's two games off a bye. The Rams have hit the under in six of their past eight games on the road, and the under is 5-1 in the past six on a grass surface, too. The Steelers enter this game as a home underdog for the second time this season. They lost 26-23 to Baltimore back on Oct. 6, one of three over results in the first eight games. For Pittsburgh, the under is 7-3 in their past 10 on a grass surface, although the over has hit in five of the past seven against winning teams, and 14 of their past 20 games at Heinz Field overall. Of course, a good chunk of those games were with Big Ben, Antonio Brown, etc. - guys not on the field in this one.

Heavy Expectations

There are three games listed with a spread of double-digit points for Week 10, with the home team listed as favorites in two of them. The totals range from 44 to 51 and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.

Atlanta at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. ET): QB Matt Ryan is back for the Falcons just in time for this NFC South battle. It hasn't made a lot of difference for the Falcons this season, as they're just 1-7 SU. However, their defense has been horrific, allowing 20 or more points in all eight contests, including 27 or more in each of the past four. Both teams are coming off the bye, and the over is 9-4 in Atlanta's past 13 off a bye, while the over is 10-3 in the past 13 for New Orleans following a rest. In the past six games at home following a bye, the Saints have averaged 43.1 PPG with the over cashing in six in a row and the Saints covering each outing with wins by an average of 16 PPG. In this series, however, the under is 3-1 in the past four meetings, including 2-0 in New Orleans.

Baltimore at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. ET): The Bengals actually played the Ravens tough in the first meeting on Oct. 13, falling 23-17 in an 'under' result as Cincinnati got the late backdoor on a rushing touchdown by QB Andy Dalton. The 'Red Rifle' isn't coming through that door this week, as QB Ryan Finley makes his first NFL start, and he has had two weeks to prepare with the Bengals coming off a bye. Matt Blunt discusses this game in even further detail in his Hot or Not Report - Week 10. The total is down to 44.5 from an open of 46.5.

Miami at Indianapolis (4:05 p.m. ET): The Dolphins have resembled an NFL-caliber team in the past four games, averaging 19.3 PPG across the past four games on offense after averaging just 6.5 PPG in the first four. Defensively, they have even shown some improvement, allowing just 23.4 PPG in the past four after yielding 40.5 PPG in the first four. They might catch a break, as QB Jacoby Brissett's (knee) injury has him listed as 'questionable' for Sunday. If Brissett doesn't play, QB Brian Hoyer is a downgrade, but not much. He tossed three TDs in Brissett's stead last week. The Colts offense has posted 27, 24, 30 and 15 in four home games, hitting the over three times.

Under the Lights

Minnesota at Dallas (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Sunday Night Football tussle has inched up from 47 to 48, although trends are leaning under. That's a surprising move considering both sides rank in the Top 10 in total defense and scoring defense. The under is 9-2 in Minnesota's past 11 against NFC opponents, and 6-2 in their past eight on the road. Remember, the Vikings are coming off a loss, and they have held opponents to 14 and 10 points following setbacks. For Dallas, it's all over all the time, hitting in seven of their past nine against the NFC, and 8-3 in the past 11 overall.

Seattle at San Francisco (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The total has moved from 45 to 47 for this highly-anticipated Monday nighter and NFC West showdown. San Francisco's defense ranks second in the NFL, allowing just 12.8 PPG, but they haven't exactly faced a who's who of quarterbacks. QB Russell Wilson is the league's best passing quarterback this season, posting a 118.2 QB rating. If you bet the trends in this series, you lean under based on the past five of seven at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara going under. However, the over is 5-2 in the past seven meetings overall in this series.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday Blitz - Week 10
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Bills at Browns (-3, 40) – 1:00 PM EST
Heading into this season, the expectation was Cleveland would be 6-2 through eight games and Buffalo could be 2-6. However, those predictions were off-base as the Bills (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) have eyes on a Wild Card berth after limiting their sixth opponent to fewer than 17 points in last Sunday’s 24-9 rout of the Redskins. Buffalo cashed as 10 ½-point favorites, marking its first cover in the chalk role since Week 2. The Bills have taken care of their business away from Orchard Park this season by compiling a 3-0 SU/ATS road record, while cashing the UNDER in all three victories.

The Browns (2-6 SU, 2-6 ATS) have dug themselves a major hole halfway through the season as Cleveland lost its fourth straight game in last Sunday’s 24-19 defeat at Denver as four-point favorites. The Cleveland offense has been held to fewer than 20 points in five of eight games, while the Browns are still seeking their first home victory of 2019. Browns’ quarterback Baker Mayfield didn’t throw an interception in a game for the first time this season, but the top pick of the 2018 draft hasn’t posted more than one touchdown pass in a game in 2019.

Buffalo has put together a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS mark in the underdog role this season, while covering in five of the last six opportunities when receiving points since 2018. The Browns are expected to get a boost offensively as running back Kareem Hunt will see his first action of the season following an eight-game suspension. The Bills have captured the last two meetings with the Browns in 2014 and 2016, while Buffalo makes its first visit to Cleveland since 2013.

Best Bet: Browns 20, Bills 19

Panthers at Packers (-4 ½, 47) – 4:25 PM EST
Following its worst performance of the season in a 51-13 drubbing at undefeated San Francisco, the Panthers (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) rebounded nicely in last Sunday’s 30-20 home victory over the Titans. The final score was a bit misleading as Carolina jumped out to a 17-0 halftime lead, while the Panthers built a commanding 30-17 advantage on Christian McCaffrey’s third touchdown of the game. McCaffrey has reached the end zone in six consecutive games, while the Panthers improved to 5-1 SU/ATS with Kyle Allen starting at quarterback.

The Packers (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) put together their worst overall effort of the season in last week’s 26-11 setback to the Chargers. Green Bay didn’t score a touchdown until the fourth quarter, but the Packers already trailed at that point, 26-3. It was ugly all around for the Pack as Aaron Rodgers threw for a season-low 161 yards, while Green Bay rushed for 45 yards. The Packers have won four of five games at Lambeau Field this season, as Green Bay tries to improve on a 9-3-1 home mark since the start of 2018.

Carolina has hit the OVER in four consecutive games, as the Panthers have topped the 40-point mark in four of six contests started by Allen. The Panthers have captured the last two meetings with the Packers since 2015, while Carolina is visiting Lambeau Field for the first time since a 38-17 defeat in 2014.

Best Bet: Packers 28, Panthers 20

Rams (-4, 43) at Steelers – 4:25 PM EST
Los Angeles (5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS) is back from the bye week after taking care of winless Cincinnati in London, 24-10 as 12-point favorites. The Rams have fixed their defensive woes since allowing a combined 85 points in a two-week stretch to Tampa Bay and Seattle as Los Angeles has yielded a total of 40 points the past three contests. Under head coach Sean McVay, the Rams have posted an incredible 17-4 road record, including a perfect 5-0 away mark against AFC foes.

Following a rough 0-3 start, the Steelers (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS) have come back to life by winning four of the last five games. Although two of those victories came against teams with a combined one win (Miami and Cincinnati), Pittsburgh knocked off the Chargers on the road, while edging the Colts last Sunday, 26-24. The Steelers have lit up the Heinz Field scoreboard this season by scoring 26, 27, 23, 27, and 26 points in five home games.

Pittsburgh has excelled in the underdog role since getting thumped at New England in the season opener by compiling a 3-0 ATS mark when receiving points, while going 5-1 ATS overall the last six games. The Rams are 10-1 the last three seasons against interconference opponents as the lone loss came in last season’s Super Bowl to the Patriots.

Best Bet: Rams 30, Steelers 21

BEST TOTAL PLAY
Under 43 ½ - Dolphins at Colts

Miami has played much better the last few weeks in spite of picking up only its first win of the season last Sunday against the Jets. The Dolphins travel to Indianapolis to face the Colts, who will start Brian Hoyer at quarterback in place of the injured Jacoby Brissett. The Colts have cashed the OVER in three of four games at Lucas Oil Stadium, while limiting three of their past four opponents to one offensive touchdown. Miami’s second half struggles have continued by posting a grand total of 12 points in the last three games after halftime.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

You wouldn’t think a team laying two touchdowns that has won six straight games is trap material, but the Saints are in their heavy favorite position on Sunday against the rival Falcons. Atlanta has been a train wreck this season at 1-7, while its defense ranks near the bottom of the NFL. Both these teams are off the bye, which could benefit the struggling Falcons, while the streaking Saints need to reset their focus. The Falcons have split their last four visits to New Orleans and will get Matt Ryan back in the lineup after missing the Seattle loss two weeks ago with an ankle injury.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

To no one’s surprise, the Chiefs moved from a 3 ½-point favorite last Sunday night at Tennessee up to a six-point favorite when news came out that Patrick Mahomes will return to the Kansas City lineup. Last season’s MVP has missed the last two games with a dislocated kneecap sustained in the Week 7 victory at Denver, as the Chiefs are fresh off a last-second victory at Minnesota. The Titans haven’t been listed as a home underdog this season, while the Chiefs own a perfect 4-0 record away from Arrowhead Stadium.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Buccaneers are playing their first game at Raymond James Stadium since Week 3 against the Giants. Tampa Bay has spent the last five games on the road, including a “home” matchup with Carolina in London last month. The Bucs host the Cardinals as Tampa Bay last won at Raymond James in Week 13 of last season against the Panthers. Arizona has been one of the more surprising teams in the league as the Cardinals have posted a solid 6-2 ATS mark in the underdog role.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SNF - Vikings at Cowboys
Matt Blunt

Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

It's hard to deny that last week's SNF game between the Patriots and Ravens had a playoff-like feel to it, as Baltimore was well prepared from the get-go and made a point to be the first NFL team to knock off New England since last December. More importantly though, that game cashed the 'over' play with relative ease, as it's now three straight weeks of essentially no doubt winners for this piece. You never want to get too cocky in your approach though as that's typically when the bounces start going against you.

Speaking of that, this week's SNF game features the Dallas Cowboys in prime time for the second straight week, as apparently the DB's on the Cowboys feel like their teammates on the special teams units need all the reps they can get. For someone like myself who was holding an 'under' ticket on MNF, to see that strip sack fumble scoop and score with less then 30 seconds was crushing. Had the Dallas DB simply fallen on the ball, it would have been one knee and the game was over.

Instead, he subjected his teammates (and himself) to run nearly the length of the field for the TD (and celebration) forced the extra point team to go out there and taken another hit, and the same with the kickoff team as well. Obviously it is what it is, but when you are on the wrong side of those bounces you think of things in that light and how the guy should have done something differently. But at the same time, him having a scoop and score TD in his stats – no matter the time of game – is something that can help him earn a few more dollars on a potential next contract so it's important to look at both sides of the coin, and as I like to say, “context matters.”

This week the Cowboys are back at home and hosting a Minnesota team that coughed up a late lead in KC last week. The Vikings have to still be having some buyer's remorse feelings with QB Kirk Cousins and his passing ability, but at 6-3 SU everything's still out in front of him. Can he and his teammates bounce back yet again – they are 2-0 SU and ATS when coming off a SU loss this year – or will the Cowboys keep on cashing tickets in their third straight prime time appearance?

Total Talk

This number has held steady at it's opening status of 48 all week, and to me, there isn't really a discernible way to approach this total from either perspective. Yes, going 'over' the total has worked out for these SNF games the past two weeks after the run of 'unders' we had to start the year, but that also doesn't mean we are going to get a nice streak of 'overs' going forward either.

And while the scoop and score late TD by Dallas last week was painful for 'under' bettors like myself, truth be told the 'over' in that game was the right side to be on. There were missed FG's early, both teams settled for too many FG's (especially New York) early, and it really was an up-and-down game for the entirety. Obviously Minnesota's defense brings much more resistance to this game then what the Giants defense has, and you've got to take that into consideration, but with Dallas putting up 37 points in consecutive weeks, do they really cool off that much? Yes, those point totals by the Cowboys were largely aided by turnovers and that's unlikely to continue at a similar pace, and coming off two consecutive division games should dull the intensity from the Dallas perspective, but both sides have cashed 'over' tickets in three of their last four games respectively as well.

Generally speaking, when both sides are coming off the same total result like Minnesota and Dallas are with 'overs' this week, I do like to look the other way, and if forced to make a play on this total, it would be on the low side of this total. And while it's never good to let past results creep into influencing your future bets, there probably is some residue left on my brain from the way last week's 'under' in the Dallas game finished in terms of me wanting to pull the trigger on it again this week. That would be the only way I'd look on this total, but sometimes a “bet saved is as good as money made,” and passing on this total is the end result.

Side Spiel

Just like the total, this point spread has held steady at it's original number of Dallas (-3) for the majority of the week. You do tend to hear/read more support for the Vikings as there are plenty in the industry who like to quote Minnesota's ATS record in the Mike Zimmer era (57-34-1 ATS) and as an underdog (22-14 ATS). Both of those numbers sit at over a 60% cash rate and that's definitely better then good in this business. Zimmer's Vikings have not failed to cover the number three times in a row during the regular season since late-October through early-November of 2016, and coming off two failed covers, that does appear to make sense to some degree here.

Adding support to that argument is the case that Dallas is off of two consecutive division games which is always theorized as a potential 'letdown' spot, and Dallas just continues to have plenty of detractors in general. A very soft schedule plays into that as the only winning teams currently that they've faced this year are New Orleans, Green Bay, and Philly, and the Cowboys went 1-2 SU and ATS in those games respectively. So that's the general consensus it seems in the market this week that Dallas is in another great spot to be bet against, but I'm not so sure that's the case.

For one, while those same Zimmer supporters are likely to fall on the side of ripping/questioning Dallas HC Jason Garrett's skills at his job – which at times do deserve to be questioned – I believe they are missing a huge chunk of the bigger picture in terms of how they view Zimmer. That's because for years I've always had a tough time backing any coach that comes from the Marvin Lewis coaching tree.

Lewis was a guy in Cincinnati who was as predictable as they come in offensive play calling – run or take a deep shot on 1st down, run on 2nd down, and then throw it over the middle to possession receiver on 3rd and medium/long – and always took the conservative approach when in doubt. It's why his Bengals teams were almost always doomed to mediocrity, and those coaches that stem from his coaching tree have similar tendencies. Minnesota falls right into that category this year, as they are so reliant on the success of RB like Dalvin Cook – who the Chiefs essentially sold out to stop last week.

For whatever reason, Marvin Lewis disciples tend to always be great interviewers in that they get the head coaching jobs, but turn out to be suspect head coaches to say the least. The list of coaches on Marvin's coaching tree includes the already fired Jay Gruden (Washington), Hue Jackson, Vance Joseph, Mike Zimmer, and the Vikings head coach before Zimmer in Leslie Frazier.

I'm not sure why the Vikings kept going back to the Bengals coordinator well, but here they are, and like all those years where Marvin kept his Bengals job for far too long (he should have been let go amid the early stages of all those consecutive playoff losses), Zimmer's done just enough in Minnesota to keep his job for another year seemingly every season so far.

Zimmer's doing his best to break away from this disastrous coaching tree with those long term ATS results, and from a market perspective you can't argue with those long term numbers. But is ATS record when catching 3 points or less is 0-4 SU and ATS since the beginning of last year – the start of the Kirk Cousins era - as just like his mentor Marvin Lewis, he can't win the 'big' or close games.

Dallas may have their own issues with Garrett and what he brings to the table, but context always matters, and everyone just prefers to overlook Zimmer and the Vikings recent history in these projected close games to opt for the overall ATS results as support. Remember, during those playoff seasons for Marvin Lewis' Bengals, Cincinnati always took care of business against the teams they should have, and could never get over the hump against equal or better competition like the Steelers, Ravens, Colts, Chargers etc. And you could say that's been the case for all of those coaches that stem from the Lewis coaching tree. Win the games you are supposed to, and choke in the games that are coin flips.

In the end, Zimmer is no different, and Minnesota ranks 31st in the league in passing completions per game (19.3). The only team that's worse then that are the Washington Redskins, who wouldn't you know it, started the year with the aforementioned Lewis disciple Jay Gruden. Are you starting to see the pattern yet?

Final Thoughts

Expressions like “the apple doesn't fall too far from the tree” always have some element of truth to them even when misapplied. That's how I view Mike Zimmer and his coaching prowess, and I just don't see how you can back the Vikings against any team that's got a winning record if they aren't catching upwards of +4.5 points or more. Bettors will comment on how soft the Cowboys schedule has been, but when Minnesota's got wins over Atlanta, Oakland, NY Giants, Philly, Detroit, and Washington, how much better is there resume really? My thoughts on Philly were well laid out a few weeks ago when Dallas last had a SNF game, and every other team there has a losing (or .500) record currently as well.

I don't know what it is about the Cowboys this year in that it's seemingly impossible for them to earn a level of respect from the markets they definitely deserve. Maybe it's that loss to the Jets that still sticks out in everyone's mind that's leaving plenty of residue on their thought process in terms of even considering backing the Cowboys. Who knows? But I'll gladly take advantage of that perception when it fits.

But just like two weeks ago when the Cowboys were laying this number at home against the Eagles, this number against the Vikings is still rather short. The Cowboys defense should be able to gear up to eliminate RB Dalvin Cook from finding significant success like the Chiefs did, and go on to win this game with relative ease like they did vs Philly. Maybe then we will start to see Dallas getting some respect from more in this industry going forward.

Best Bet: Cowboys -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Week 10 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes sat out two games after dislocating his knee, but he's back this week at Tennessee. The midweek news that he'd likely play moved the line from Chiefs -4 to -6.5.

NFL Week 10 will apparently include the playmaking stylings of one Patrick Mahomes. Covers checks in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Injury Impact

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: After suffering a dislocated kneecap in a Week 7 win at Denver, Mahomes missed the last two games, and Kansas City split those two contests. He’s back for Sunday’s game at Tennessee. “Mahomes is playing, so we actually went up to -6.5 on the Chiefs,” Osterman told Covers, noting the line opened -3.5, went to 4 early in the week, then made the big jump once it was clear Mahomes would return. “He’s worth more than the 2.5-point move, but the line was already shaded that way because he was practicing.”

The line ticked down to 6 on Friday afternoon, and Osterman isn’t sure if the public can take it to 7. “There’s a chance the Chiefs get to -7, but I doubt it. There will be enough takers at 7 to keep it at 6.5.”

ARIZONA CARDINALS: Running back David Johnson (ankle/back) will return at Tampa Bay after missing two games. But that wasn’t a needle-mover, since the Cards acquired Kenyan Drake from Miami last month. “No move for Johnson.” Arizona is a 5-point underdog, with the total at 52.

ATLANTA FALCONS: Quarterback Matt Ryan (ankle) returns after missing a Week 8 loss to Seattle, then getting the benefit of the bye week. But he was expected back at New Orleans. “The line would be over Saints -14 if he wasn’t playing.” The Falcons are +13.5, with a total of 51.5.

BALTIMORE RAVENS: Quarterback Lamar Jackson was under the weather midweek, but he practiced Friday and expects to play at Cincinnati. “This game might drop a couple of points if he didn’t play, but nothing too crazy.” The Ravens are -10.5, with a total of 44.5.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Quarterback Jacoby Brissett got knocked out last week’s game at Pittsburgh with a knee injury, and he’s questionable this week against Miami in what will apparently be a game-time decision. “If Brissett plays, I would expect this line to go up by about a point to a point-and-a-half.” The Colts are -11.5, down from the opener of -13, with a total of 44.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster is questionable at home against the Rams, due to a toe injury. Osterman said if Schuster plays, it’d be worth a half-point. The Steelers are 4-point pups, with a total of 43.5.

DALLAS COWBOYS: Wideout Amari Cooper (ankle/knee) is questionable for the Sunday nighter against visiting Minnesota. That’s another one that would be worth a half-point, Osterman said. The Cowboys are laying 3, with a total of 48.


Weather Watch

CAROLINA AT GREEN BAY: Sunday’s high is only in the mid-30s, and this is among the later kickoffs at 4:25 p.m. ET, about an hour before sunset. Along with winds out of the north at 11 mph, much of this game will likely be played below 30 degrees. “The total has started to creep down. We opened 48, down to 47.”

KANSAS CITY AT TENNESSEE: The weather should generally be mild, but there could be a little wind. “The total has come up some, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see that come down a little bit before kickoff.” The total opened at 48.5 and climbed to 49.5.

BUFFALO AT CLEVELAND: It’ll be cloudy, with wind blowing in the mid-teens. But so far, that’s led to no adjustments, with the Browns -3 and a total of 40.
Pros vs. Joes

BUFFALO AT CLEVELAND: The Browns opened -2.5 Sunday and have been at -3 since Monday night. “The public has come in on the Bills, and the sharps are all over the Browns.”


Reverse Line Moves

ARIZONA AT TAMPA BAY: “We’re seeing money come in on Tampa Bay, but we’ve gone from Bucs -5.5 to -5.” In fact, the Buccaneers spent a couple days midweek at -4.5.

DETROIT AT CHICAGO: “The Bears opened -3.5, and we’re down to -2.5 (-120), but we haven’t really seen much Lions support to back up that move.”

BUFFALO AT CLEVELAND: Along with it pitting the sharps against the public, this game went from Browns -2.5 to -3, despite more money showing on the Bills.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TEDDY COVERS

Event: (269) Los Angeles Rams at (270) Pittsburgh Steelers
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: November 10, 2019 4PM EST
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers 4.0 (-110)

3% Take the Pittsburgh Steelers (#270)

I don’t know how to phrase this other that ‘This is a ‘Jared Goff game’. And we’ve seen enough ‘Goff Games’ against good defenses to know that, even out of their bye week, this Rams offense cannot be trusted to win by margin at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh.

The numbers do not lie. Last year, on their way to the Super Bowl, the Rams averaged 4.9 yards per carry, opening up the field for Goff as opposing defenses keyed against the run. This year, LA is averaging a full yard per carry less than last year, and teams are taking away the pass, instead of the run. Goff’s completion percentage is down, his yards per pass is down, his interceptions are up. And his games against quality defenses – the 49ers this year, the Patriots in the Super Bowl, the Bears in Chicago – have been downright ugly for Rams backers.

The Steelers are a long way from behind elite on the offensive side of the football, but their defense is downright nasty as the Colts found out last week. At 4-4, with a weak schedule down the stretch, Mike Tomlin’s team is still very much alive to make the playoffs – they’re battling every week and haven’t lost by more than four points since opening day. And it’s surely worth noting that we can Steelers weather, not LA weather in Pittsburgh on Sunday. Live dog here! Take the Steelers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MARCO D'ANGELO

Event: (269) Los Angeles Rams at (270) Pittsburgh Steelers
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: November 10, 2019 4PM EST
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers 4.0 (-103)

Pittsburgh +4

The public is going to look at this game and say the Rams are back after 2 dominating wins and then an extra week to prepare. The fact is they beat Atlanta and Cincinnati two teams that can't get out of their own way. Pittsburgh climbed back to .500 and after a 0-3 start no one thought that was possible. Yes one of the wins was against Miami and the other was somewhat lucky against the Colts who were down to their #3 QB once Brissett was knocked out of the game. The Steelers defense is getting better by the week as Watt, Bush and Fitzpatrick are all impact players on defense. Todd Gurley has been non productive all year and when the Rams don't run well Goff can be rattled with pressure. As bad as Tomlin has been when facing inferior foes he's been that good when facing good teams. Tomlin is 32-20 ATS as an underdog as the coach of PITTSBURGH. Tomlin is 46-33 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of PITTSBURGH. This is a rare 4:25 EST start at Heinz field meaning the crowd will be even more rowdy with 3 extra hours to tailgate.

PITTSBURGH 24-20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Sunday, November 10, 2019

NFL (259) ATLANTA FALCONS VS (260) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Take: (260) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Reason: Your free play on Sunday, November 10, 2019 is in the NFL scheduled contest between the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints. Your free play is on the Saints.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JACK JONES
NFL | Nov 10, 2019
Bills vs. Browns

Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Cleveland Browns -2.5

This is the final stand for the Cleveland Browns, who sit at 2-6 on the season. They were great in the second half last year, and I think they can repeat the feat thanks to the schedule easing up on them. The Browns have played the 3rd-toughest schedule in the NFL, so that has at least played a role in their struggles. They’ve also had many self-inflicted wounds. They are only getting outgained by 11.6 yards per game, so they are better than their record would indicate.

I think it’s telling that a 2-6 team here is favored over a 6-2 team in the Buffalo Bills. The Bills aren’t as good as their record, and unlike Cleveland, they have benefited from an easy schedule. Buffalo has faced the single-easiest schedule (32nd) in the entire NFL. Their six wins have come against the Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans, Dolphins and Redskins, who all have losing records this season. Their two losses came to the Patriots and Eagles.

Threre’s no question the Browns have the better offense in this matchup. The Bills have been held to 253 yards by the Eagles and 268 yards by the Redskins the last two weeks. To only be scoring 19.7 points per game against the soft schedule the Bills have played says a lot about how poor their offense really is. They’ll be hard-pressed to keep up on the scoreboard with the Browns.

Cleveland knows that they have not used their running game enough this season, which is the strength of their offense. Look for them to get back to running the football this week. Nick Chubb is having another good season and the Browns are averaging 5.2 yards per carry against teams that allow 4.1 per carry. The Bills give up 4.4 per carry against teams that normally average just 3.8 per carry. The Bills have allowed 102-plus rushing yards in four straight games and an average of 172.5 rushing yards per game in their last two.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Cleveland) - after four consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers against an opponent that committed no turnovers last game are 40-15 (72.7%) ATS since 1983. The Bills are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Browns Sunday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MIKE LUNDIN
NFL | Nov 10, 2019
Falcons vs. Saints
Falcons+14½ -130

The Atlanta Falcons are a hot mess defensively and are entering this contest off six straight defeats, but they covered the number and outgained Seattle by 188 yards in a 27-20 loss to Seattle last time out. They should be well prepared for this one, coming off a bye week and with starting quarterback Matt Ryan healthy and back at the helm again.

The New Orleans Saints have won six on the bounce and had their star QB Drew Brees back under center in last week's rout of Arizona, but I still think Atlanta has too many offensive weapons to pass up on here.

The Saints are due for a flat game any time now, and with a road game at Tampa Bay coming up I think they'll be happy to just win this one, giving the Falcons the chance to hang in there or hitting the backdoor cover.

The underdog is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

Free pick on Atlanta Falcons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BIG AL

Our complimentary selection for Sunday, November 10 is:

Indianapolis Colts -10.5 over Miami Dolphins.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CAPPERS ACCESS
(NFL)
Browns
Cardinals
Packers
Vikings

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BOB VALENTINO

I am willing to give the Chicago Bears one last chance here on Sunday to right their ship that is so full of water right now that I am sure all of you out there think I am crazy for going with the Bears as the favorite today.

At one point Chicago was 3-1 on the season with a 2-1-1 spread mark, but the Bears ship has been taking on water since that start and they come into today's game saddled with 4 straight up and against the spread losses, with the most recent in Philadelphia against the Eagles leaving all of the NFL perplexed.

In that 22-14 loss to the Eagles, Chicago was held to 9 yards in the first half of play in that game, and they come into this game ranked 29th in total yards with just an 18 points per game average.

I am not saying the Bears are going to explode for 40 points this afternoon, but their opponent the Lions has allowed an average of 27 points per game, so maybe Matt Nagy's play-calling will see Mitchell Trubisky put some points on the board at home where they face a Detroit Lions team that hasn't exactly been tearing up the league at this writing either. Detroit started the season at 2-0-1, but after a straight up and against the spread loss at Oakland last Sunday, the Lions are now on a 1-4 straight up slide, and have failed each of the last 3 against the spread.

The Bears pulled off the season series sweep over the Lions last year - winning by 12 at Soldier Field, and by 7 at Ford Field - as the Chicago defense gave Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford fits with 4 picks in the 2 games contested.

Detroit enters this game with just 3 covers in their last 8 division games, so getting the small impost doesn't really intrigue me at all in this second straight road game for Matt Patricia's team.

No doubt the Bears recent stink-bomb play is hard to get behind, but I also know that in all of my years handicapping, the more sure you feel about something in the NFL, the saying "on any given Sunday" is not just talk, but is reality.

Who saw the Chargers holding the Packers to 11 points last weekend? Who saw the 49ers erupting to 51 points a couple of weeks ago and who thought Tampa Bay would tune up the Rams for 55 points earlier this season?

With the Bears backed into a corner, I will back them to fight out of that corner on their home field this Sunday afternoon.

Lay the small wood with Chicago.

4* CHICAGO