Service Plays Saturday 11/16/19

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-14-2019, 05:54 AM

Brad Powers | CFB Total - Saturday, Nov 16 2019 12:00PM
397 Alabama / 398 Mississippi StUNDER 63.5 Westgate triple-dime bet

Analysis: We love the UNDER here. First, The UNDER is 10-1-1 in the series with an average cover of 10.2 ppg. On top of that the UNDER is also 11-4 (+9.2 ppg) in Alabama games when they Tide are coming off a straight up loss (Saban Era). It makes sense that any time Saban is coming off a rare loss, he goes back to basics. What is basics for Saban? It’s run the football (especially with a less than 100% QB) and it’s play defense, something Alabama didn’t do last week vs LSU. On the other side, do you really trust an average Miss St offense to have success?

**Iowethe man** · 11-14-2019, 09:20 AM

The plays

Stanford Steve (2-3 last week, 29-25-2 overall)

The Bear (5-3 last week, 27-23-1 overall)

Buffalo Bulls (-6, 56) at Kent State Golden Flashes
The Bear: I don't really understand the line move from Buffalo -1 to -6, so I will take the points with the home 'dog here. Sure, the Bulls have covered in four straight, but Kent State has blown out a bad team at home (Bowling Green), beat a good FCS team (Kennesaw State) and was actually favored at home against the team that could be the best in the MAC (Miami Ohio). All three of the Golden Flashes' MAC losses have been one-score affairs, and our numbers have Buffalo by about two. I'll go against the line move here and grab the six.
Pick: Kent State +6

Florida Gators (-7, 51) at Missouri Tigers
Stanford Steve & The Bear podcast

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The Bear: Missouri couldn't have looked any worse offensively the past three weeks, putting up a combined 21 points on the road in losses against Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Georgia. But the Tigers have won every game this season in Columbia by double digits and should have Kelly Bryant back at quarterback. Sure, there could be a measure of revenge in store here, as the Gators have been blown out each of the past two years, but I see it more as a last chance to salvage something from a lost season for the Tigers. And I can't imagine there will be much Missouri love at the window this week, so that makes it even more attractive in my eyes.
Pick: Missouri +7

Kentucky Wildcats (-10.5, 42.5) at Vanderbilt Commodores
The Bear: The last time Vanderbilt suffered a truly embarrassing loss -- as a huge favorite on its home field vs. UNLV -- the Commodores bounced back to upset Missouri. Both teams have QB concerns, but being that the Wildcats have put up 0, 13 and 7 points in their three road games, should they really be laying double digits -- even against a really bad team? It seems like eons ago that Vandy put up 38 against LSU. There will be no bowl game for Vandy, but I don't think Derek Mason will quit on his team -- or vice versa. I'll take the smelly home 'dog.
Pick: Vanderbilt +10.5

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Marshall Thundering Herd (-4.5, 55.5)
EDITOR'S PICKS

Stanford Steve: Since losing to Texas in the season opener, Louisiana Tech has won eight straight, including a 52-17 win over North Texas last weekend. There hasn't been a team I have been more wrong about this year than the guys from Ruston. With that being said, I just like the situation for the Herd here, as they have won four straight and, more importantly, control their destiny to play in the Conference USA title game, so there is plenty to play for. The addition of being at home makes me think they will cover the short number Friday night.
Pick: Marshall -4.5. Marshall 27, La. Tech 21

Louisville Cardinals (-4, 55.5) at NC State Wolfpack
Stanford Steve: Things have not been going well for the boys from Raleigh, as they have been decimated by injuries and have proceeded to give up 144 points over their past three games. The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their past four road games against a losing team. The Cardinals still need to a win to clinch a bowl game, so you would think they would have a little revenge on their minds after being dominated 52-10 last year by the Wolfpack. I'll lay the points with the road team.
Pick: Louisville -4. Louisville 31, NC State 19.

Stanford Cardinal at Washington State Cougars (-10.5, 63.5)
Stanford Steve: I love that Davis Mills will be under center for the Cardinal, but this game is more about who is not going to be in uniform for Stanford. Wazzu's pass offense has had success in previous matchups in this series, as the Cougars have scored a combined 107 points in the past three meetings. That success, along with Stanford being without its two best players in the secondary (Paulson Adebo and Malik Antoine) and seeing the Cardinal score only 13 points against a below-average Colorado defense last week ... I think Wazzu covers the double digits. Take the home team.
Pick: Washington State -10.5. Washington State 38, Stanford 20.
Stanford Steve's noon games to go over the total

Kansas Jayhawks at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-17.5, 67)
Les Miles returns to Stillwater, where 15 years ago he coached his last home game there. Current Pokes head coach Mike Gundy succeeded Miles and is now the school's wins leader. Both teams are off byes, and both have strong running games. The Cowboys' Chuba Hubbard leads the country in rush yards and had 223 last time out against TCU. Kansas running back Pooka Williams needs 110 yards to reach 2,000 for his career. KU's offense has been good on the road, averaging 431 yards, so I expect the Jayhawks to score enough to help surpass the number.
Pick: Over 67. Oklahoma State 45, Kansas 28.

UMass Minutemen at Northwestern Wildcats (-40.5, 56.5)
Just because.
Pick: Over 56.5. Northwestern 48, UMass 10.
Stanford Steve's Heisman pick

Josh Fields (8-1)

Play Capital One Bowl Mania. Pick the winners. Take home $1,000,000! Play for Free!
I think it's worth it to take a shot with the Ohio State QB at this point. He has three big games left on his schedule: vs. Penn State, at Michigan and the Big Ten title game. Think about last year; everyone said it was Tua Tagovailoa's award going into championship Saturday. He was injured and Jalen Hurts led the Crimson Tide from behind to beat Georgia, and Oklahoma's Kyler Murray came from the back of the pack and won the award. Listen, it's Joe Burrow's award, but why not take a shot with a guy that has plenty of opportunity ahead of him while Burrow has hit his ceiling, in my opinion.

Stanford Steve's 10-point, three-team teaser

Road favorite teaser.
Alabama -19 (-10)
Wisconsin -15 (-5)
Air Force -10 (Pick)

Stay-away games

USC Trojans (-6.5, 48.5) at California Golden Bears
Every time it seems as if USC has had the chance to throw in the towel on the season, the Trojans play well the next game. And quarterback Kedon Slovis has been so impressive. But with Chase Garbers potentially back at QB for the Bears, I don't know if I'd want to lay 6.5 on the road, as Cal could win games vs. Washington and USC in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1949-50! In 22 games as a 'dog, Cal coach Justin Wilcox is 15-7 ATS with nine outright wins. -- Fallica
Something always crazy happens when these two play -- especially in "Berserkeley." -- Stanford Steve

Virginia Tech Hokies (-5.5, 50.5) at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Speaking of turning its season around, Virginia Tech has done that and still has a chance of reaching the ACC title game. But as I mentioned last week in liking the Jackets as a big 'dog against Virginia, this Georgia Tech team has improved as the season has gone on and it wouldn't surprise me if it hung around here too. -- Fallica

Air Force Falcons (-10, 62.5) at Colorado State Rams
By virtue of an improbable three-game winning streak bolstered by an upset win at Fresno State, the Rams have guaranteed I will not cash my season win total ticket (under 4). But it will still take an upset to get to win No. 5. However, I might be hesitant in laying double digits with the Falcons coming off an unplanned idle week since a hard-fought win over Army. -- Fallica

The Bear's money-line parlay of the week

Seven-team favorite ML parlay. Based on current Caesars odds, $100 returns $104.67.
Kansas State -550
Cincinnati -650
Clemson -12000
Utah -2000
Oregon -3500
Boise State -6000
UL Lafayette -7000
Michigan -550
LSU -1800
Alabama -1400

The Bear's underdogs to play on money lines/parlays/round robins

Kent State +195
Minnesota +130
Wyoming +215
Navy +240
Missouri +225
UNLV +230

Bear Bytes

Minnesota perspective this week

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The last time a team 9-0 or better was a 'dog in regular-season vs. a three-loss team: 2012 Ohio State (+2) at Wisconsin. OSU won 21-14. The only time in the past 40 years a team 9-0 or better was a 3-point 'dog vs. a three-loss team: 1990 Wyoming. Lost 17-8 at Colorado State.
P.J. Fleck has won each of the past six games outright in which his team has entered as an underdog.
Iowa has won its past six games in which it has been favored by a field goal or less (dating to 2015). The Hawkeyes are 5-1 ATS in those six games, with the only non-cover a one-point win this season in Ames as a 1.5-point favorite.
Does it get better than this?
UMass (1-9) faces Northwestern (1-8) this week. There were two games last year featuring teams that brought 1-8 or worse records through nine games into a game. WKU (1-9) beat UTEP (1-9), and Bowling Green (1-8) beat Central Michigan (1-9) last year. The only time a team 1-8 or worse was favored by more than 20 vs. an FBS opponent was 1994; 1-8 Georgia Tech lost to 2-8 Wake Forest 20-13 as a 23-point favorite. The Wildcats are around a 40-point favorite this week -- and have scored 38 points in their past five games combined.
You laying 'em or taking 'em?
Since 1996, there have been two Power 5 games with a spread of at least 50 points: 1996 Nebraska -50 vs. Missouri (won by 44) and 2003 Oklahoma -53 vs. Baylor (won by 38). Ohio State is currently -52 vs. Rutgers.
Cyclones on the wrong side of close games
Iowa State has now lost three games this year by one or two points. In the past 15 years, only two other Power 5 teams had at least three losses by one or two points in a single season -- both were named Nebraska (2009 and 2015).
Anchors Aweigh?
In 2007, Navy snapped a 43-game losing streak to Notre Dame. Including that game, the past four times Notre Dame was a single-digit favorite over Navy, the Irish lost outright in three of those games. They won the other game by six as a 4-point favorite.
Baylor a historic 9-0 home 'dog
The only time in the past 40 years a team was 9-0 or better and at least a 7-point underdog on its home field was 1993 when Notre Dame beat Florida State 31-24 as a 7-point 'dog. All told, there have been six 9-0 or better teams that were a home 'dog. Four of the six won outright.
2015: Oklahoma State vs. Baylor (-2,5), lost by 10
2008: Utah vs. TCU (-2), won by 3
2005: Alabama vs. LSU (-3), lost by 3
1996: Florida State vs. Florida (-2,5), won by 3
1993: West Virginia vs. Miami (-5.5), won by 3
1993: Notre Dame vs. Florida State (-7), won by 7
Baylor currently is a 10-point home underdog against Oklahoma.
The 26 total 9-0 or better 'dogs in the regular season over the past 40 years (including road games) have gone 11-15 SU and 14-11-1 ATS.
In its last six games as an underdog, Baylor is 6-0 ATS with five outright wins. In 46 games as an underdog, Baylor coach Matt Rhule is 32-14 ATS with 16 outright wins. In 18 games as a home 'dog, Rhule's teams are 13-5 ATS with seven outright wins.
Temple a home underdog again
In its past 17 games as a home underdog, Temple is 13-4 ATS (2-1 this year) with eight outright wins.
Spartans have been a cover machine lately vs. Michigan
Michigan State is 10-1 ATS with eight outright wins in its past 11 games with Michigan.
Georgia perspective this weekend

In the past 20 years, there have been 10 top-5 teams favored by a field goal or less on the road vs. a team ranked outside the top 10. The 10 have gone 2-8. The only two to win: 2016 Ohio State at Oklahoma and 2009 Cincinnati at Pitt.
Utah dominant since loss
Since losing at USC, Utah has won and covered all five of its games, winning by an average of 25.6 PPG.
Indiana, we're all for you ...
Indiana is 1-48 in its past 49 road games vs. ranked Big Ten teams. However, the Hoosiers have covered three straight and seven of their past 10 in this spot.
Clemson has been crushing teams
Since the one-point win at North Carolina, Clemson has won its five games by an average of 41.6 PPG and covered vs. each FBS team its faced.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-14-2019, 06:37 PM

NFAC

389) OVER 50.5 FLA-MIS…($600)

**WeWantMoehr** · 11-15-2019, 10:10 AM

Alan Harris - CFB

3 Unit Play. Take #331 Ohio St -52 over Rutgers (3:30 PM, Saturday, November 16, Big 10 Network)
4 Unit Play. Take #338 Clemson -34 over Wake Forest (3:30 PM, Saturday, November 16, ABC)
5 Unit Play. Take #339 Central Michigan +2.5 over Ball St (3:30 PM, Saturday, November 16, CBS Sports Network)
3 Unit Play. Take #353 Wyoming +5.5 over Utah St (4:00 PM, Saturday, November 16, ESPN U)
6 Unit Play. Take #357 Navy +7.5 over Notre Dame (2:30 PM, Saturday, November 16, NBC)
3 Unit Play. Take #360 Oregon St +3 vs Arizona St (7:30 PM, Saturday, November 16, FS1)
6 Unit Play. Take #377 Texas +7 over Iowa St (3:30 PM, Saturday, November 16, FS1)
7 Unit Play. Take #382 Baylor +10.5 over Oklahoma (7:30 PM, Saturday, November 16, ABC)
3 Unit Play. Take #393 Rice +14.5 over Middle Tennessee St (4:30 PM, Saturday, November 16, ESPN +)
4 Unit Play. Take #395 Southern Mississippi -16.5 over UTSA (6:00 PM, Saturday, November 16, ESPN +)
5 Unit Play. Take #397 Alabama -17.5 over Mississippi St (12:00 PM, Saturday, November 16, ESPN)
4 Unit Play. Take #402 Mississippi +21.5 over LSU (7:00 PM, Saturday, November 16, ESPN)
3 Unit Play. Take #403 Stanford +11 over Washington St (4:30 PM, Saturday, November 16, Pac-12 Network)
2 Unit Play. Take #323/324 Tulane vs Temple Over 54 (12:00 PM, Saturday, November 16, ESPN U
2 Unit Play. Take #335/336 Minnesota vs Iowa Over 44.5 (4:00 PM, Saturday, November 16, FOX)
2 Unit Play. Take #359/360 Arizona St vs Oregon St Under 57 (7:30 PM, Saturday, November 16, FS1)
2 Unit Play. Take #363/364 Arizona vs Oregon Over 68 (10:30 PM, Saturday, November 16, ESPN)
2 Unit Play. Take #365/366 Coastal Carolina vs Arkansas St Over 60.5 (3:00 PM, Saturday, November 16, ESPN +)
2 Unit Play. Take #387/388 Michigan St vs Michigan Over 44.5 (12:00 PM, Saturday, November 16, FOX)
2 Unit Play. Take #395/396 Southern Miss vs UTSA Under 52.5 (6:00 PM, Saturday, November 16, ESPN +)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-15-2019, 11:09 AM

Tom Fornelli

UNDER 54.5
Tulane @ Temple | 11/16 | 12:00 PM EST

Temple has been a much better team at home, and I think its defense is capable of slowing down the Tulane offense. On the other side, Temple's offense has been too inconsistent to trust it in this spot. So I'll take the Under, as windy conditions will only make life more difficult on both offenses.

26-16-2 IN LAST 44 CFB PICKS | +925
3-0 IN LAST 3 TEMPLE O/U PICKS | +300

Emory Hunt

Penn St. -14.5
Indiana @ Penn St. | 11/16 | 12:00 PM EST

Normally, you are worried about a team allowing one loss to become two, but I don't think that's the case with Penn State. Despite coming off a setback against Minnesota, the Nittany Lions still have a chance to get into the CFB Playoffs. Defensively, they still are one of the best in the nation, and they'll give Indiana's offensive line problems throughout the game. Offensively, last week's turnover-fest was an anomaly, so you can have some trust in Penn State this week.

82-45 IN LAST 127 CFB ATS PICKS | +3334
7-2 IN LAST 9 PSU ATS PICKS | +489
6-1 IN LAST 7 IND ATS PICKS | +489

Tom Fornelli

UNDER 56.5
Massachusetts @ Northwestern | 11/16 | 12:00 PM EST

If you want to take a Northwestern team that has only scored 100 points all season long to cover 41 points, go right ahead. I actually think the Wildcats will cover. Even so, the smarter play is on the total. Northwestern's offense is an epic disaster, but its defense has been fine. UMass won't be able to do anything against it. If this game is going Over it will need at least 50 points from Northwestern to do so, and Northwestern has bigger games ahead than this one.

26-16-2 IN LAST 44 CFB PICKS | +925

Mike Tierney

Massachusetts +39
Massachusetts @ Northwestern | 11/16 | 12:00 PM EST

Let’s acknowledge up front that UMass is the worst FBS team. Yet its 125th-ranked offense is two slots ahead of Northwestern's. The Wildcats own the worst yards-per-play average (3.90). Before scoring 22 against Purdue last Saturday, they begged, borrowed and stole a total of six points in their three prior outings and 35 in the three before that. They have not covered at home since eight games ago, and Under cashes in two of three Northwestern nonconference games going back more than 10 seasons. There's no way the Wildcats should be spotting this many points. Take the points.

29-20 IN LAST 49 CFB PICKS | +686
2-0-1 IN LAST 3 NWEST ATS PICKS | +200
2-1 IN LAST 3 MA ATS PICKS | +89

Emory Hunt

Michigan -13.5
Michigan St. @ Michigan | 11/16 | 12:00 PM EST

Usually rivalry games are tough to get a good gauge on, but this season's Michigan/Michigan State game doesn't offer that same challenge. The Spartans are reeling offensively, and it's been a big reason why they've not had the success this season. The Wolverines have been a much better team since their loss at Wisconsin, and have gotten back on the winning track since their loss two weeks ago against Penn State. Michigan has the focus to avoid the slip-up against Sparty. Lay the points with Michigan.

82-45 IN LAST 127 CFB ATS PICKS | +3334
5-0 IN LAST 5 MICHST ATS PICKS | +500
3-0 IN LAST 3 MICH ATS PICKS | +300

Tom Fornelli

Michigan St. +13.5
Michigan St. @ Michigan | 11/16 | 12:00 PM EST

The last we saw Michigan State it was blowing a 31-10 lead after three quarters against Illinois. Now it's hitting the road to face its hated rival. All of that led to this line being inflated. Since Jim Harbaugh returned to Ann Arbor these rivals have split four games with the road team winning each. The average margin has been 7.75 points, and no game featured a final margin greater than 14 points. Michigan State has covered 10 of the last 11 games, and the last five in Ann Arbor. Grit your teeth and take Sparty.

26-16-2 IN LAST 44 CFB PICKS | +925
3-2 IN LAST 5 MICHST ATS PICKS | +79

Mike Tierney

Michigan St. +13.5
Michigan St. @ Michigan | 11/16 | 12:00 PM EST

It is plausible that Michigan State, with a 25-point lead and victory over Illinois seemingly sealed last Saturday, started looking ahead. Uh-oh. The Spartans were victimized by the season’s biggest collapse. Normally, a team might take a week to recover. Not so in this case, with the next opponent being Michigan State's ultra-rival. Spartans coach Mark Dantonio has the secret sauce against Michigan, having covered five straight times in Ann Arbor. Overall, Michigan State enjoys a 10-1 against-the-spread streak in the series. Michigan comes off an open week, yet has covered just once in the last eight successful scenarios.

29-20 IN LAST 49 CFB PICKS | +686
10-2 IN LAST 12 MICH ATS PICKS | +778
7-1 IN LAST 8 MICHST ATS PICKS | +590

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-15-2019, 11:10 AM

Tom Fornelli

Missouri +7
Florida @ Missouri | 11/16 | 12:00 PM EST

There have been two Missouri teams this season. There's Missouri at home and Missouri on the road. The home version is much better. That homefield factor is multiplied in this matchup. It's an early kick in 30-degree temperatures. How excited do you think Florida players will be for this one? There's a reason SEC teams don't like to head north!

26-16-2 IN LAST 44 CFB PICKS | +925
4-0 IN LAST 4 FLA ATS PICKS | +400
3-0 IN LAST 3 MIZZOU ATS PICKS | +300

Emory Hunt

Florida -7
Florida @ Missouri | 11/16 | 12:00 PM EST

At first glance, I wanted to stay away from this game. But after pouring over the film, I felt more comfortable going with the Gators. The main reason is because of their defense. Florida can present some of the same challenges Georgia did last weekend. Missouri's offensive line has struggled handling the blitz, so expect to see the Gators doing it often.

82-45 IN LAST 127 CFB ATS PICKS | +3334
7-3 IN LAST 10 FLA ATS PICKS | +371

Barrett Sallee

Florida -7
Florida @ Missouri | 11/16 | 12:00 PM EST

The Florida offense is riding high after dominating Vanderbilt last weekend, and now gets to face a broken and demoralized Tigers team that has scored 21 total points over the last three games (losses to Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Georgia). They might not even gain a single yard.

31-20-2 IN LAST 53 CFB PICKS | +892
2-0-1 IN LAST 3 FLA ATS PICKS | +200

Emory Hunt

Wisconsin -14.5
Wisconsin @ Nebraska | 11/16 | 12:00 PM EST

Will Nebraska be able to stop the run? Will Nebraska offensively be able to protect the QB? Those are the two major questions facing the Cornhuskers in this ballgame. The Badgers still feel as though they have a chance to win the Big Ten West, and will come into this game looking to impose their will right out of the gate. Defensively, Nebraska hasn't been as stout as they were earlier in the season. On, Wisconsin!

82-45 IN LAST 127 CFB ATS PICKS | +3334
6-1 IN LAST 7 NEB ATS PICKS | +486
8-4-1 IN LAST 13 WISC ATS PICKS | +363

Josh Nagel

Notre Dame -9.5
Navy @ Notre Dame | 11/16 | 2:30 PM EST

We've already missed the best of an opening number at -8.5, but we'll lock it in here before it reaches the key number of 10. the Irish got their offense on track and were solid in all facets in last week's blowout of Duke. That performance should bode well for a strong stretch run. Navy has looked impressive during its five-game win streak, but most of it has come against modest competition. Notre Dame practices defending the option for weeks in advance of this match up every season.

51-34-3 IN LAST 88 CFB PICKS | +1333
7-4 IN LAST 11 ND ATS PICKS | +267

Tom Fornelli

UNDER 47.5
West Virginia @ Kansas St. | 11/16 | 3:30 PM EST

The math here is simple. West Virginia's offense stinks (21.1 ppg overall, 16.0 ppg on the road), Kansas State's offense is deliberate, and the wind will be blowing at 18 mph when they kick off.

26-16-2 IN LAST 44 CFB PICKS | +925
3-0 IN LAST 3 KSTATE O/U PICKS | +300

Tom Fornelli

Georgia Tech +182
Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech | 11/16 | 3:30 PM EST

This is a gut play more than anything. Georgia Tech hasn't been good this year, but as you'd expect from a team transitioning from the option, it's gotten more comfortable as the season has moved along. Meanwhile, the Hokies had an emotional win last week and could get caught looking past the Bees here.

26-16-2 IN LAST 44 CFB PICKS | +925

Barrett Sallee

Virginia Tech -5.5
Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech | 11/16 | 3:30 PM EST

The Hokies have won four of their last five, with the one loss coming in a nail-biter at Notre Dame. Quarterback Hendon Hooker settled in nicely with 242 yards in the win over Wake Forest last week, and will continue that momentum against a Georgia Tech team that has struggled to find consistency.

31-20-2 IN LAST 53 CFB PICKS | +892

Emory Hunt

Ohio St. -52.5
Ohio St. @ Rutgers | 11/16 | 3:30 PM EST

I know huge lines like this scare bettors away, but don't fret - have trust in the Buckeyes' defense. Even without pass rusher Chase Young, this unit is one of the best in college football and now faces one of the worst offenses in the nation. The math is very simple here. The more times you can't move the ball, the more times the opposing team gets the ball. And the opposing team in this game just so happens to possess a Heisman Trophy candidate in QB Justin Fields, who spearheads one of the best offenses in the country.

82-46 IN LAST 128 CFB ATS PICKS | +3224
8-1 IN LAST 9 RUT ATS PICKS | +690
10-4-1 IN LAST 15 OHIOST ATS PICKS | +555

Mike Tierney

Rutgers +51.5
Ohio St. @ Rutgers | 11/16 | 3:30 PM EST

Ohio State covers week after week, so a stratospheric spread has been assigned to this mismatch. Is it too much? Consider that favorites of 50-plus have covered fewer than 40 percent of the time going back 15 years. Consider, too, that the total is just nine points higher than the spread, meaning that the public anticipates Rutgers scoring under 10 points. That could happen but is unlikely in a game with plenty of garbage time. Most importantly, the Buckeyes have Penn State on deck and Michigan in the hole. Their starters will clock out early. Ride Rutgers.

29-20 IN LAST 49 CFB PICKS | +686

Josh Nagel

Georgia -2.5
Georgia @ Auburn | 11/16 | 3:30 PM EST

This number has moved from an opener of -3, suggesting the early action has been on Auburn. But the number now provides value on a Georgia team that is on a mission to reach the SEC title game and put itself in position to reach the College Football Playoff. The Bulldogs shut out Missouri last week despite relatively poor execution on offense. Auburn is talented and well-coached, but freshman QB Bo Nix has struggled against top-notch defenses in its two losses. He's about to the toughest one yet, and that's where the edge lies for Georgia.

51-34-3 IN LAST 88 CFB PICKS | +1333
7-0 IN LAST 7 UGA ATS PICKS | +700
4-3 IN LAST 7 AUBURN ATS PICKS | +69

Tom Fornelli

Auburn +2.5
Georgia @ Auburn | 11/16 | 3:30 PM EST

I'm more than a little mad at myself here. I waited too long to make a play on the total, which opened between 44 and 45 but has since been bet down to 40.5, removing all the value. Still, that total shrank for a reason. These are two teams who are better defensively than they are offensively, so I expect this to be a low-scoring, sluggish affair. That puts points at a premium, and Auburn has been so much better at home. Don't be shocked if the Tigers pull off another upset, but the points are the safer play.

26-16-2 IN LAST 44 CFB PICKS | +925

Tom Fornelli

UNDER 65.5
Texas @ Iowa St. | 11/16 | 3:30 PM EST

I liked this play on the total when it was first posted, and then I saw the weather forecast for Ames on Saturday. Winds will be howling, and that's going to have a major impact on both offenses. Take the Under.

26-16-2 IN LAST 44 CFB PICKS | +925
2-1 IN LAST 3 IOWAST O/U PICKS | +90

Josh Nagel

Texas +7
Texas @ Iowa St. | 11/16 | 3:30 PM EST

The Cyclones are in a potential letdown spot following an epic comeback that fell one-point short against Oklahoma last week. They are well-coached so they should be prepared, but they should also expect a fight to the wire from Texas. The Longhorns overcame a 14-point deficit to beat Kansas State and keep their feint Big 12 hopes alive. Their powerful offense should be able to do some damage and their defense should get its share of stops against ISU's methodical offense. Take the points in what rates to be a one-score game.

51-34-3 IN LAST 88 CFB PICKS | +1333
12-2 IN LAST 14 TEXAS ATS PICKS | +979
3-0 IN LAST 3 IOWAST ATS PICKS | +303

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-15-2019, 11:12 AM

Mike Tierney

UNDER 43.5
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt | 11/16 | 3:30 PM EST

Kentucky appears poised to continue with converted WR Lynn Bowden Jr. at quarterback even though he is banged up. Bowden has thrown just 14 passes the past two games combined, which contributed to extending the Wildcats’ string of Unders to six straight. Vanderbilt QB Riley Neal (knee) is set to return after a hiatus, but how much can he juice an offense that was shut out last week? Matched up, these teams tend to engage in low-scoring affairs -- the Under has carried in six of the last seven meetings -- and another one looms. Take the Under.

29-20 IN LAST 49 CFB PICKS | +686
2-1 IN LAST 3 UK O/U PICKS | +95

Tom Fornelli

Syracuse +307
Syracuse @ Duke | 11/16 | 4:00 PM EST

It was late September when Duke went on the road to beat Virginia Tech 45-10 and looked like a team capable of making noise in the ACC Coastal. Since then the Dukies have lost four of five and allowed an average of 32.4 points per game. Syracuse isn't the team many thought it would be this year, but this is a spot where the Orange can shock the world. Or, at least the 50 people watching this game.

26-16-2 IN LAST 44 CFB PICKS | +925

Tom Fornelli

Minnesota +133
Minnesota @ Iowa | 11/16 | 4:00 PM EST

I like this play for the same reasons I like Minnesota against the spread. The Gophers are the better team. They win this game more often than they lose it.

26-16-2 IN LAST 44 CFB PICKS | +925

Tom Fornelli

Minnesota +3
Minnesota @ Iowa | 11/16 | 4:00 PM EST

This line sure seems like bait, but the thing about bait is that sometimes the fish takes it and leaves you with nothing. I plan to be that fish. Minnesota is the better team! You want me to lay three points with an Iowa offense that is averaging fewer than three yards per carry in Big Ten play? Iowa can't score. Minnesota can. Maybe the Hawkeyes win this game, but they don't cover this spread.

26-16-2 IN LAST 44 CFB PICKS | +925
2-1 IN LAST 3 IOWA ATS PICKS | +86

Tom Fornelli

UNDER 55.5
Louisville @ NC State | 11/16 | 7:30 PM EST

If you've watched NC State in recent weeks you have no desire to trust in its offense. Of course, having watched the inconsistencies of Louisville, you don't want to trust them as a road favorite. Instead put in a play on this total, as it is going to be cold and windy in Raleigh on Saturday night. The weather won't be the only thing that's miserable.

26-16-2 IN LAST 44 CFB PICKS | +925

Emory Hunt

LSU -21
LSU @ Ole Miss | 11/16 | 7:00 PM EST

LSU is the new No. 1 team in the playoff rankings. A big reason for that obviously is its passing game. Meanwhile, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire is putting himself into the Doak Walker Award conversation with how he's running the ball. But I'm focused on the Tigers' defense in this game. They'll need a better performance, especially from the secondary, after what we saw Alabama do to them down the stretch last weel. Look for them to get back on track against Ole Miss.

82-46 IN LAST 128 CFB ATS PICKS | +3224
3-1 IN LAST 4 LSU ATS PICKS | +190

Mike Tierney

App. St. -16
App. St. @ Georgia St. | 11/16 | 7:30 PM EST

Georgia State’s spotless home record (4-0 straight-up and against the spread) is in jeopardy with QB Dan Ellington (knee), the Sun Belt’s third best passer, sidelined. Appalachian State needs to come down from the high of knocking off South Carolina, but the Mountaineers should be focused on winning a conference title. They have covered in 10 of the last 12 away games and four of the last five meetings with the Panthers. Take App State.

29-20 IN LAST 49 CFB PICKS | +686

Emory Hunt

Baylor +10
Oklahoma @ Baylor | 11/16 | 7:30 PM EST

Styles make fights, and this is one that features a great offense (Oklahoma) against a great defense (Baylor). What I like about the Baylor Bears this season under Matt Rhule is that they are playing great defense to go with a complimentary offense. Also, despite them being undefeated, the Bears aren't getting the respect in the polls. This is Baylor's statement game opportunity. It doesn't hurt that Baylor, up front, is stylistically similar to Kansas State...

82-46 IN LAST 128 CFB ATS PICKS | +3224
2-1 IN LAST 3 BAYLOR ATS PICKS | +89

Barrett Sallee

Baylor +10
Oklahoma @ Baylor | 11/16 | 7:30 PM EST

The Sooners will get the job done, but how on Earth can you trust that defense at this point of the season? The Bears have enough juice on offense with wide receiver Denzel Mims and a two-headed rushing attack to keep pace with the Sooners. Who knows ... if the aggressive Bears defense forces a few mistakes by quarterback Jalen Hurts, they could even spring the outright upset.

31-20-2 IN LAST 53 CFB PICKS | +892
7-2 IN LAST 9 OKLA ATS PICKS | +475

Tom Fornelli

Oklahoma -10
Oklahoma @ Baylor | 11/16 | 7:30 PM EST

There will be a lot of attention paid to the fact that Oklahoma hasn't looked great in its last couple of games. It lost to Kansas State and nearly lost to Iowa State. Not nearly as much attention will be paid to Baylor's struggles the last couple weeks. It needed OT to get past TCU, and nearly lost to West Virginia. I love this Bears team, but at the end of the day, Oklahoma has a talent advantage on the Bears that they haven't had to deal with yet. That will work out for Oklahoma in the long run.

26-16-2 IN LAST 44 CFB PICKS | +925
7-1 IN LAST 8 OKLA ATS PICKS | +589

Tom Fornelli

UCLA +955
UCLA @ Utah | 11/16 | 8:00 PM EST

One of the cornerstones of college football in November is chaos. It happens, often coming from the least expected places. Well, I sense there have been too many people just assuming that this Utah team is going to cruise to a showdown against Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship game. Yes, Utah is one of the best teams in the country, and it's been better than UCLA all season long. But UCLA has been a much better team in recent weeks, and it wins this game often enough to justify taking a shot on the money line here.

26-16-2 IN LAST 44 CFB PICKS | +925

Tom Fornelli

Arizona +27.5
Arizona @ Oregon | 11/16 | 10:30 PM EST

Oregon is the best team in the Pac-12, and is its best chance at earning a playoff berth. But that doesn't mean I'm ready to trust it as this large of a favorite, particularly at home. Since Mario Cristobal took over in Eugene the Ducks are only 4-8 ATS at home, and 3-7 ATS as a home favorite. Yes, the Ducks are better than Arizona, but they aren't 27.5 points better.

26-16-2 IN LAST 44 CFB PICKS | +925

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-15-2019, 05:58 PM

Norm Hitzges's Picks of the Pole

DOUBLE PLAYS:
Baylor +10
U La La -28
So. Mississippi -17

SINGLE PLAYS:
Indiana +14.5
Cinci -14
Ohio State -53
Iowa -3
Troy -7
Wyoming +6
Navy +7
Texas A&M -11
Mich -13.5
Florida -7
Miss +21.5
Stanford +11

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-15-2019, 05:58 PM

Ultra Sports

CFB:

379 TCU -3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-15-2019, 05:58 PM

Larry Ness Saturday Legend Play

Iowa

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-15-2019, 05:59 PM

Lee Sterling
40 unit Georgia

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-15-2019, 05:59 PM

Indian Cowboy

Passing in College Football

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-15-2019, 08:38 PM

Marc lawrence

Playbook data play
mississippi

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-15-2019, 08:38 PM

Marc lawrence

From vegas insider
navy
auburn
missouri
baylor

Service Plays Saturday 11/16/19

Service Plays Saturday 11/16/19

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