Thursday 11-21-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Steve Janus

Nov 21 '19, 9:05 PM in 12h
NHL | Maple Leafs vs Coyotes
Play on: UNDER 6½ -119

1* Free Sharp Play on Maple Leafs vs Coyotes under 6½ -119

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

Nov 21 '19, 7:00 PM in 10h
NCAA-B | Utah vs Coastal Carolina
Play on: Utah -4 -107 at betonline

My free play is on Utah at 7:00 ET. Larry Krystkowiak is in his 11-year as a head coach (first two at Montana) and his Utes are off to a 3-0 start with a balanced team averaging 98.3 PPG (3rd0 on 55.1% shooting (4th). Utah travels to South Carolina on Thursday to compete in the eight-team Myrtle Beach Invitational.The field includes a pair of ranked teams in No. 15 Villanova and No. 23 Baylor and is rounded out by Middle Tennessee, Mississippi State, Tulane, Ohio and Coastal Carolina (school). Utah will face host Coastal Carolina tonight, which has opened 2-2. The Utes are starting three sophomores and two freshman. 6-6 SF Allen (22.7 & 8.3), fellow guard Gach (17.7 & 5.3) and the 6-9 Battin (12.3 & 7.3) are sophomores. The two freshman are guard Jones (9.7 & 5.7) and the 7-0 Carlson (8.7 & 6.7). The Utes already own a pair of good wins, at Nevada and home to Minnesota. Coastal Carolina may be just 2-2 but it's a little deceiving. The Chanticleers own two double-digit wins over Middle Tennessee (93-72) and Hampden-Sydney (102-66) but also have lost one-point heart-breakers to Campbell (75-74) and Northern Kentucky (69-68). Coastal Carolina is averaging 84.2 PPG (35th) with basically a six-man rotation with all six players contributing at least 9.5 PPG. Guards Gumbs-Frater (16.3 points), Jones (15.0 & 5.3 APG) and Brewton (14.8) lead the way, while the 6-8 Burton (9.5 & 6.8) is the top frontcourt player. I really like this Utah team but the Chanticleers are led by former Clemson and Auburn coach Cliff Ellis and will be playing their FIFTH straight home game, having yet to leave the "friendly confines" of the HTC Center in Conway, S.C. As noted above, both of Coastal Carolina's have come by just one point, so while I will play Utah and lay the 'small' number, I'll make it a 'small' play. Good luck...Larry

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Hunter Price

Nov 21 '19, 9:05 PM in 12h
NHL | Maple Leafs vs Coyotes
Play on: Maple Leafs +105 at Buckeye

1* Free Pick on Maple Leafs +105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rob Vinciletti

Nov 21 '19, 10:35 PM in 14h
NBA | Pelicans vs Suns
Play on: Suns -4½ -105 at betonline

The NBA Comp Play is on Phoenix at 10:35 eastern. The Suns have covered 5 of 6 vs losing teams and are 5-1 to the spread with 1 day of rest. The Pelicans have failed to cover 4 of 5 as a road dog and 7 of 10 vs winning teams. We have a nice system in this game that plays against rested road dogs with a 210 or higher total that won and covered as a home favorite while scoring 110 or more vs a team that lost and failed to cover as a road dog that also scored 110. These road dogs fail to cover over 75% long term. With the winning team on a 17-1 spread run we will play on Phoenix. Rob V- GC Sports

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting Recap - Week 11
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 11 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 11-2
Against the Spread 8-4-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 8-5
Against the Spread 5-7-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-6

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 100-57-1
Against the Spread 68-86-4

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 85-72-1
Against the Spread 67-87-4

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 80-77-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Falcons (+3.5, ML +165) at Panthers, 29-3
Jets (+1.5, ML +105) at Redskins, 34-17

The largest favorite to cover
Bills (-7) at Dolphins, 37-20
Cowboys (-7) at Lions, 35-27
Rams (-5.5) vs. Bears, 17-7
Saints (-5.5) at Buccaneers, 34-17
Patriots (-4.5) at Eagles, 17-10
Ravens (-4.5) vs. Texans, 41-7

The People Are Champs

-- The Dallas Cowboys (-7) dropped the Detroit Lions at Ford Field in the 1:00 p.m. ET window, and bettors laying the flat seven had the benefit of a coach playing the analytics game. Traditionally, being down eight would mean you kick the extra point and are down just seven. However, 'new school' rules have coaches down eight going for two these days. Head coach Matt Patricia instructed QB Jeff Driskel and his offense to go for two, down 35-27. That's how the game ended, as the two-point conversion failed. Cowboys side bettors can send a thank-you note to Patricia and the new-school analytics guys who have fooled coaches into these decisions. The Cowboys are now 3-2 ATS on the road, and 6-4 ATS overall on the season. The 'over' has hit in three in a row, and five of the past six.

Another favorite team of the betting public, the New England Patriots (-4.5) ended up scratching out a 17-10 road win against the Philadelphia Eagles. You didn't really think the QB Tom Brady and the Patriots were going to lose consecutive games, did you? The Patriots bounced back from a road loss on SNF Nov. 3, and they're now 9-1 SU/7-3 ATS. The 'under' has connected in seven games.

The Cowboys and Patriots meet at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Mass. in Week 12, so the public will have to decide which team they like to back more, and which total trend they're feeling more.

Total Recall

-- The two highest totals on the board Sunday were the Houston Texans-Baltimore Ravens (51.5) and New Orleans Saints-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (50.5). The Ravens certainly did their part, scoring 41 points, but the Texans were only able to post seven points. Over bettors were hurt by Baltimore's defense, as well as a scoreless first quarter which is obviously never good for business.

As far as the Saints were concerned, they rebounded after forgetting how to play offense last week at home against Atlanta. They posted 13 points in the opening quarter, and they had 20 points by half. New Orleans posted seven or more points in each quarter, and that was good enough to overcome two scoreless quarters by the Bucs - just barely. The game cashed by a half-point at most shops.

The next two highest games on the board -- the Atlanta Falcons-Carolina Panthers (49) and Cincinnati Bengals-Oakland Raiders (48) games never really took off. The Falcons defense showed up for a second straight week, allowing single-digit points and zero touchdowns in a 29-3 win. The Bengals and Raiders remembered how to play defense, and totaled just 27 points.

There was only one total on the board under 40, and that was the New York Jets-Washington Redskins (37.5) game. The Jets offense was surprising NFL-caliber, posting 34 points, including a career-high four touchdown passes by QB Sam Darnold. In fact, he is now the youngest quarterback in franchise history to toss four TDs in a game, as Hall of Famer Joe Namath was nine days older when he turned the trick in Nov. 21, 1965.

After a six-game 'over' primetime streak, the 'under' has cashed in each of the first two primetime games of Week 11, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Kansas City-Los Angeles Chargers (53) from Mexico City still pending. The 'over' is just 12-21 (36.4%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' was a perfect 8-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, but the New England Patriots-Baltimore Ravens (44.5) game went over in the SNF game for the second consecutive weekend.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky (hip) reportedly suffered a hip injury late in the loss on the road against the Rams. It's uncertain if he'll miss time, but it's something to watch going forward.

-- Colts RB Marlon Mack (hand) suffered a fractured hand in Sunday's win over the Jaguars. It's uncertain how long he'll be sidelined or if he'll be able to play with a cast, etc.

Looking Ahead - Divisional Battles

-- Thursday's game between the Colts and Texans is an important game between two 6-4 clubs, and it will be interesting to see if Mack is able to play or not. The Texans got licked in Baltimore, so they'll be angry. They also lost 30-23 in the first meeting in Indianapolis back on Oct. 20, so there is the revenge factor, too. Houston enters this one 1-3 ATS in the past four outings, and they're 3-1 SU/1-3 ATS in their four previous home games.

-- The Bucs and Falcons face each other for the first time in six games. The Buccaneers are in a swoon, losing five of the past six while failing to cover six in a row. The one consistent factor for bettors and the Bucs is the 'over', cashing in each of the past eight after two 'under' results to start the season. In fact, the over has hit for the Bucs more often than any other team. It's the opposite for the Falcons, as the 'under' is 7-3 in their 10 games so far. The 'over' has connected in five of the past six meetings in Atlanta, and five of six meetings overall in the series, The home team is also 4-0 ATS in the past four battles with the favorite 11-5-1 ATS in the past 17 meetings.

-- The Panthers and Saints square off in a battle of two teams going in opposite directions. These teams meet for the first of two battles over the final six games. Carolina is 1-3 SU/ATS across the past four outings, and the offense is averaging just 15.5 PPG. For New Orleans, They have posted a 7-1 SU/ATS mark across the past eight. In this series, the over is 6-0 in the past six meetings in New Orleans, and 8-2 in the past 10 overall. Of course, most of those games involved QB Cam Newton, not QB Kyle Allen, although the final meeting of 2018 was, in fact, an Allen start in Week 17. The Panthers won that game 33-14 in NOLA, an 'over' result, but QB Drew Brees didn't play.

-- The Steelers and winless Bengals square off in the Queen City. These teams met in Pittsburgh Sept. 30, with the Steelers winning 27-3 in an 'under' result. This will be QB Ryan Finley's first experience in the rivalry. The offense is averaging just 11.5 PPG in his two starts so far, going 0-2 SU/1-1 ATS. It's expected QB Mason Rudolph will be under center, although it's possible there is still more fallout from 'Helmet-gate', or whatever you want to call the Browns-Steelers brawl last Thursday. Stay tuned.

-- The Jaguars and Titans hook up in the Music City, and QB Nick Foles will make his third start of the season, while QB Ryan Tannehill gets his first start in a Tennessee uni against the Jags. The Jaguars are 3-7-1 ATS in the past 11 against AFC South teams, including 0-1 in Foles' first divisional game in Indianapolis in Week 11. The Titans are 15-33-3 ATS in the past 51 vs. AFC South foes, so something's gotta give. Since taking over as start, the Titans are 3-1 SU/ATS under Tannehill, averaging 26.3 PPG with four consecutive 'over' results. These teams met in Week 3, a 20-7 win by the Jags. But neither of these QBs were under center.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Week 12 opening odds and early action: Patriots already land $53K bet vs Cowboys
Patrick Everson

Tom Brady has New England tied for the NFL's best SU and ATS records, at 9-1 and 7-3 respectively. The Patriots opened -6.5 at home against the Cowboys in a marquee Week 13 contest.

Week 12 of the NFL season features America’s team against the best team of this millennium. We check in on the opening odds and early action for four games, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots (-6.5)

Defending Super Bowl champion New England regained its winning form after a bye week that followed its first loss of the year. The Patriots (9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS) went off as 4.5-point favorites at Philadelphia and notched a 17-10 victory.

Dallas rebounded from a Week 10 home loss to Minnesota, though Jason Garrett’s troops got a stern test from a Detroit outfit missing Matthew Stafford. The Cowboys (6-4 SU and ATS) claimed a 35-27 win, narrowly cashing as 7.5-point road favorites.

“We opened Patriots -6.5 and are still there, despite taking a bet of $53,500 on New England already,” Murray said. “This will be one of the highest-handle games of the year to date.”

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-4)

Like New England, San Francisco rebounded from its first setback of the season, though Jimmy Garoppolo and Co. got a fight from Arizona. The 49ers (9-1 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) won 36-26, returning a fumble for a touchdown on the game’s last play to push as 10-point home favorites.

Green Bay is coming off its bye week with an 8-2 SU mark, and it’s tied for the league lead at 7-3 ATS. In Week 9, the Packers topped Carolina 24-16 laying 5 points at home.

“The Sunday night game will also be a huge-handle game,” Murray said. “I’m expecting a lot of public support for the ‘dog. The 49ers are very banged up, and the Packers are coming in off their bye. I could see this number drifting closer to pick.”

Indeed, shortly after opening the Niners -4, the line tightened to 49ers -3 (even).

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-3.5)

Indianapolis lost starting quarterback Andrew Luck to a surprise retirement two weeks before the season began. Yet through 11 weeks, the Colts (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) are tied atop the AFC South after rolling over Jacksonville 33-13 as 2.5-point home faves Sunday.

Houston gave up sole possession of first in the division with a dud of a Week 11 performance. The Texans (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) mustered only one score – a fourth-quarter TD after trailing 34-0 – in a 41-7 loss at Baltimore catching 4 points.

This battle for the division lead kicks off Week 12, as it's the Thursday night game.

“Our look-ahead line was Texans -5.5, but that was before the Texans got crushed by the Ravens and the Colts put together an impressive win over the Jaguars,” Murray said. “Houston has struggled in this home-favorite role in recent seasons.”

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-9)

Drew Brees missed five games for New Orleans, but his team still owns a three-game lead in the NFC South. In Week 11, Brees and the Saints (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) dumped Tampa Bay 34-17 giving 5 points on the road.

Carolina made a 5-1 SU and ATS run to start turning heads, then dropped two in a row SU and ATS. The Panthers (5-5 SU and ATS) were 3.5-point home favorites Sunday against Atlanta and came up with a mere fourth-quarter field goal in a 29-3 beatdown.

“We opened Saints -9 and quickly moved up to -9.5,” Murray said. “New Orleans will be a very popular public side included in many parlays and moneyline parlays.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

109INDIANAPOLIS -110 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 16-2 ATS (13.8 Units) in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points since 1992.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 12

Thursday, November 21

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INDIANAPOLIS (6 - 4) at HOUSTON (6 - 4) - 11/21/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 109-81 ATS (+19.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
HOUSTON is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 5-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 5-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 12

Trend Report

Thursday, November 21

Houston Texans
Houston is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 8 games at home
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
Houston is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Houston is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Houston's last 15 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games
Indianapolis is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games on the road
Indianapolis is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games when playing Houston
Indianapolis is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Houston
Indianapolis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 15 games when playing on the road against Houston

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hot & Not Report - Week 12
Matt Blunt

Week of November 18th

Last week's piece touched on a few different live scenarios that were out there in the NFL this past weekend, and for the most part the runs those specific spots were on didn't hold up quite as well. Bad teams coming off a win like Cleveland, Atlanta, and the NY Jets all got their first against the spread (ATS) victories the following week in the past few days, while the offenses that had had a decent time bouncing back after sub-10-point efforts finished the day 1-2 ATS.

Hopefully some of you were able to catch (and play) the friendly reminder on fading teams post-London, as Houston and Jacksonville both got run out of the building in their respective games, to push that situation to a perfect 0-8 ATS this season. And all eight of those losses after a London game come post-bye week as well. Maybe that suggests we all put too much stock into bye weeks as it is, and it will be interesting to see if it holds up for the Chargers and Chiefs in a couple of weeks after their MNF game in Mexico this evening.

This week I'm sticking with the NFL as there are two specific divisions that have generally done well either going against or playing on their teams in non-division games, a situation that you'll see most of them in this week.

So let's get right to it:

Who's Hot

NFC West teams are 19-10 ATS in non-division games overall – on a 11-5 ATS run since October 1st

In what is a loaded NFC conference at the top, it's the NFC West division that leads the way in terms of a depth argument in that conference. San Francisco and Seattle are neck-and-neck right now for the division title, while the defending champion Los Angeles Rams are trying to hold strong to stay in the Wildcard race. With Arizona improving as well, venturing into playing a NFC West opponent has not gone well for most that are outside of the division.

The Cardinals are actually tied with the Rams for the best non-division ATS record in the NFC West at 6-2 ATS, with San Francisco (4-2 ATS) and Seattle (3-4 ATS) coming in behind them. Given that the 49ers and Seahawks each have an ATS loss that's been by a point or less since the start of this great run for the division since October 1st, that number could be sitting much better then it already is.

Heading into Week 12, we've got the Arizona Cardinals off on their bye week, but the rest of this division is all up against non-conference foes. Seattle travels east to face an Eagles team that is trying their best to keep both avenues (division title and wildcard) to the playoffs open as long as possible, while San Francisco and the L.A. Rams both get the NFL prime time treatment at home, with the 49ers hosting the Packers on SNF, and the Rams hosting the Ravens on MNF. All three of these games have lines where the favorite is essentially laying just 3 points or less right now, so they are all expected to be close.

If that's the case, maybe we see this great run for NFC West teams in non-division games hit a bit of a road block. Yet, it will be interesting to see where the support lands on these contests as the week goes on, because one specifically ties into the next streak, and that is...

Who's Not

NFC East teams are 10-18 ATS in non-division games overall – on a 7-11 ATS run since October 1 – Not one of the four teams have a winning ATS record in non-division games in 2019

The NFC East is a division is nothing more then a two-horse race between Dallas and Philadelphia, with the loser likely missing out on the playoffs entirely. The Giants and Redskins are two of the Top 5 worst teams in the league, so fading them as a good thing isn't too surprising, but the fact that this entire division struggles against the rest of the league does say something about how mediocre the level of football this division plays that they pass off as good.

Now to be fair, Philly is one of those two teams fighting for this division crown, and do own the best non-division record in the NFC East at 4-4 ATS. But that's as close to a winning record as any of these four teams get after Week 11, as the Cowboys are 2-4 ATS while Washington and the NY Giants are each 2-5 ATS outside of the division. The records of the latter two teams are likely to continue to get worse before they definitively get better, while the team that does better in their remaining non-division games between the Eagles and Cowboys is likely the one that rides that success to a division crown. But it's Week 12 brings some interesting games for all four of these teams, as they are all stepping outside of the division as well.

The Giants are on the road catching about a TD currently in Chicago and the Redskins are catching a FG at home against the Lions. Both of those teams are facing teams with QB concerns from a health standpoint right now, so it will be interesting to see what kind of movement they end up seeing.

Dallas finds themselves in New England to take on a great Patriots team, a game Eagles fans are hoping New England can win. Dallas finds themselves catching about six points early on, and given that it's under that key number of -7 and this being a spot where fading NFC East teams has been profitable, seeing if the Patriots ever touch -7 again will be interesting as well.

And finally there are the Eagles, at home and laying about two points, to a team that's already been mentioned in this piece; the Seattle Seahawks.

The 2019 history of non-division games for teams from the NFC West and NFC East suggest that backing Seattle against the number is the only way to look here. You are backing the Seahawks in a “hot” role, fading the Eagles in a “cold” role at the same time, and getting points with the better team. Very hard not to like Seattle this week, for many other reasons as well.

And while the other three games featuring NFC East teams will be intriguing from a reactionary standpoint in terms of where their point spreads line up, this Seahawks/Eagles game is one where you've got to be proactive if you are already leaning towards the Seattle side. This line is far more likely to sniff the 'pick'em' range then it will getting to Philly -3, so getting down action on Seattle sooner rather then later is probably the best course of action here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 12 odds: Now's not the time to bet the Niners
Jason Logan

Books are bracing for underdog money on the Packers Sunday night, so if you like the 49ers you may want to play it cool and see if you can get San Francisco under the key number of a field goal.

Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team but betting the best number.

Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL Week 12 board.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: DALLAS COWBOYS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-6, 46)

Being “America’s Team”, the Cowboys always attract action at the window from legions of Dallas backers blindly betting the Boys. And it would seem, even in a matchup with the defending Super Bowl champs, early money is siding with Dallas.

The Cowboys opened as big as +6.5 at New England in Week 12 and books have trimmed that down to +6 at most books. The juice on Patriots -6 is seeing a discount as low as -105 and there’s even a -5.5 on the board as of Monday afternoon.

New England hasn’t been overwhelmingly impressive this season and is coming off an ugly win over Philadelphia this past Sunday. Dallas also took a “fugly” victory over a Stafford-less Detroit squad but the offense is firing on all cylinders – something Tom Brady & Co. can’t say after scoring 20 and 17 points respectively in their last two games. If you like the Cowboys collect the points at the key number of six while it still stands.

SPREAD TO BET LATER: GREEN BAY PACKERS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-3, 45.5)

According to bookmakers, they expect money on the underdog Packers in this Sunday Night Football showdown. San Francisco hasn’t looked great in its last three games: two near losses to Arizona and a OT defeat at the hands of Seattle. Granted, the 49ers were dealing with dual-threat dynamos, Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson, who amounted for 154 yards rushing on 19 total carries in those three games.

Green Bay gunslinger Aaron Rodgers has plenty of weapons in his arsenal but he’s not as spry as those two QBs. The Cheeseheads are coming off a bye in Week 11, but before that squeaked out a win against Carolina (was McCaffrey in?) and fell to the L.A. Chargers.

San Francisco should get some bodies back in Week 12, with kicker Robbie Gould coming around and TE George Kittle listed at day-to-day. If you’re giving the Niners the nod, wait it out and see how low you can grab them under the key of a field goal.

TOTAL TO BET NOW: OVER 45.5 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT HOUSTON TEXANS

This number has made a significant dive, from as high as 47 to 45.5 points. Now might be the time to strike if you like the Over. For one: this is a primetime game and the public loves to root for high-scoring football in those night games, so action on the Over is expected.

The Colts will lean on the arm of QB Jacob Brissett more with RB Marlon Mack out with a hand injury. Indianapolis runs the ball on 47 percent of snaps but may have to resort to the air more often in this AFC South matchup, lending value to the Over. Brissett did enjoy his best game of the season at home to the Texans in Week 7, passing for three touchdowns on 326 yards - a game that scored 53 total points and topped the 46.5 Over/Under.

Houston just got cracked for 41 points versus Baltimore and hasn’t been that stout a defense in 2019, allowing 30 or more points four times this season. The Texans offense – namely Deshaun Watson – will be eager to shake a stinky 7-point showing in Week 11, in which the QB passed for only 169 yards and an interception. Beat the public to the window and bet this Over now.

TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 39 PITTSBURGH STEEELERS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS

This total is already on the way down, moving from 39.5 to 39, and I project it going even lower between now and kickoff Sunday. The Steelers mustered only seven points in a short week versus Cleveland last Thursday, which is fresh in everyone’s mind. But before that ugly result, Pittsburgh’s offense was finding its footing, averaging 24 points between Weeks 4 and 10 with second-stringer Mason Rudolph at the wheel.

The Bengals surrendered 27 points in a Week 4 loss at Pittsburgh, managing a lonely field goal in rebuttal. Cincinnati hasn’t been much better ever since, averaging only 15 points per outing in the six games since that dismal Monday night display.

That said, with a total this low, Over bettors may not need much more from Cincy to slide in above the number. The Bengals are notably better on offense at home - 17.5 points per home game versus 12.5 points per away game – and are 6-2-1 Over/Under in their previous nine games inside Paul Brown Stadium. If you like the Over, set your Covers Live App alert and see if you can get something in the 38-point range later in the week.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Best spot bets for the NFL Week 12 odds: Browns-Steelers brawl bleeds over into schedule
Jason Logan

Both the Browns and Steelers could be falling into spot bets in NFL Week 12 coming off a crazy finish to Cleveland's win last Thursday night.

The schedule can make or break an NFL team at this point in the season. And it can do the same for your wagers. Situational handicapping should always be folded into – or at least considered when sizing up the NFL odds each week.

Senior industry analyst Jason Logan looks at the Week 12 slate and picks out his favorite “Letdown”, “Lookahead”, and “Schedule” spots and how those situations could shake down at the sportsbook.

LETDOWN SPOT: MIAMI DOLPHINS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (-11, 44)

The Browns had one hell of a Week 10, knocking off rival Pittsburgh on Thursday Night Football and picking up their second straight win. In the midst of all that, standout DE Myles Garrett got into it with Steelers QB Mason Rudolph and tried knocking his head off with his own helmet.

It made for a very messy week in Ohio – a week in which Cleveland should have enjoyed a mini bye and some extra time to tinker before Week 12. However, the added stress and media attention marred what could have been a turning point for the Browns’ 2019 season.

The Week 12 opponent – Miami – is a tough team to get up for in the first place, and this letdown angle comes with a sprinkle of lookahead as well. Next up for the Browns: a trip to Heinz Field to play Pittsburgh in Week 13. Cleveland is currently laying 11 points versus the Dolphins at home this Sunday.

LOOKAHEAD SPOT: PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (+6.5, 39)

Hey, what do you know? The other side of that Thursday’s night dramafest falls into one of our weekly spot bet slots. Pittsburgh can’t wait to get another crack at Cleveland after: 1. Losing to the Browns 21 -7 2. The Garrett incident which equalled a suspension for C Maurkice Pouncey and a fine for Rudolph.

But before the Steelers can exact revenge, they have another AFC North foe from Ohio standing in the way. The winless Bengals are a main ingredient for a lookahead spot, having cracked the 20-point plateau just twice all season. The last time Pittsburgh played Cincinnati, it rolled to a 27-3 victory on Monday Night Football in Week 4.

Oddsmakers are giving the host Bengals 6.5 points and that spread has already flirted with a touchdown at some markets, instantly taking money on Cincinnati and sliding the line back under the key number. According to our Covers Consensus, 70 percent of the early ticket count is on Pittsburgh so expect a move to Steelers -7 before kickoff.

SCHEDULE SPOT: OAKLAND RAIDERS AT NEW YORK JETS (+3, 45.5)

People love to play against West Coast teams coming east for an early 1 p.m. ET start, which is 10 a.m. PT back home. While blindly betting against those qualifying teams is a bad decision, the Raiders have played into this notion in recent years.

Heading into a 1 p.m. ET kickoff in East Rutherford, Oakland is 2-6 SU and ATS in its last eight 1 p.m. ET kickoffs. This season, the Silver and Black have done a few of these early wakeups, losing SU and ATS at Minnesota in Week 3, winning and covering in Indianapolis in Week 4, winning and covering versus Chicago in London in Week 5, and losing and coming up short ATS at Green Bay in Week 7.

The Raiders played a road-heavy stretch of schedule during that span but have enjoyed three straight home games before this matchup with the Jets. Oakland is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 away games overall – regardless of start time – and the home team has been the hot bet when these teams clash, with hosts going 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL's Top ATS Teams:

t1. Patriots 7-3 ATS
t1. Packers 7-3 ATS
t1. Saints 7-3 ATS
t1. Rams 7-3 ATS
t1. Cardinals 7-3-1 ATS
6. Bills 5-3-1 ATS
t7. Cowboys 6-4 ATS
t7. Raiders 6-4 ATS
t7. Steelers 6-4 ATS
t7. Broncos 6-4 ATS


NFL's Worst ATS Teams:

32. Buccaneers 2-8 ATS
t29. Redskins 3-7 ATS
t29. Giants 3-7 ATS
t29. Bears 3-7 ATS
t27. Browns 3-6-1 ATS
t27. Chargers 3-6-2 ATS
t22. Bengals, Jets, Lions, Falcons, Eagles 4-6 ATS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 12
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Nov. 21

INDIANAPOLIS at HOUSTON (FOX, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Indy 1-3 vs. line last 4 TY, but won alst week, and Colts are 7-3 vs. line last ten on road. Also won and covered last 3 vs. Texans. Houston just 1-4 vs. spread last five at NRG Stadium.
Tech Edge: Colts, based on team and recent series trends.