Sunday 11-24-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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CFL
Long Sheet

Week 23

Sunday, November 17

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EDMONTON (9 - 10) at HAMILTON (15 - 3) - 11/17/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 5-12 ATS (-8.2 Units) in games played on turf this season.
EDMONTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HAMILTON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games this season.
HAMILTON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
HAMILTON is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
HAMILTON is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in games played on turf this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 5-1 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 4-2 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WINNIPEG (12 - 7) at SASKATCHEWAN (13 - 5) - 11/17/2019, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
SASKATCHEWAN is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
SASKATCHEWAN is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) in all games this season.
WINNIPEG is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) in all lined games this season.
WINNIPEG is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
WINNIPEG is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus division opponents this season.
WINNIPEG is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) off a division game this season.
WINNIPEG is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in games played on turf this season.
WINNIPEG is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 6-4 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-5 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CFL

Week 23

Trend Report

Sunday, November 17

Hamilton Tiger-Cats
Hamilton is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Hamilton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Hamilton is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Hamilton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Hamilton's last 9 games at home
Hamilton is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Edmonton
Hamilton is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Hamilton's last 6 games when playing Edmonton
Hamilton is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Edmonton
Hamilton is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Edmonton
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Hamilton's last 8 games when playing at home against Edmonton
Edmonton Eskimos
Edmonton is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Edmonton is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
Edmonton is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Edmonton is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Edmonton's last 15 games on the road
Edmonton is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Hamilton
Edmonton is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Hamilton
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games when playing Hamilton
Edmonton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Edmonton's last 8 games when playing on the road against Hamilton

Saskatchewan Roughriders
Saskatchewan is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Saskatchewan is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Saskatchewan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Saskatchewan's last 10 games at home
Saskatchewan is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
Saskatchewan is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Saskatchewan's last 12 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Winnipeg is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games
Winnipeg is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Winnipeg is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 7 games on the road
Winnipeg is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Saskatchewan
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing Saskatchewan
Winnipeg is 4-17 SU in its last 21 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Winnipeg's last 12 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan

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CFL
Dunkel

Week 23


Sunday, November 17

Edmonton @ Hamilton

Game 891-892
November 17, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Edmonton
110.772
Hamilton
120.797
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Hamilton
by 10
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Hamilton
by 5 1/2
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Hamilton
(-5 1/2); Under

Winnipeg @ Saskatchewan

Game 893-894
November 17, 2019 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Winnipeg
117.137
Saskatchewan
123.216
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Saskatchewan
by 6
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Saskatchewan
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
Saskatchewan
(-3); Under

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CFL Division Finals preview, odds, picks & predictions: Bet on defensive battle out West
Rohit Ponnaiya

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers and Saskatchewan Roughriders meet up in the CFL Western Division Final on Sunday with the total set at just 44.

It's the division finals in the CFL and after both underdogs won on the moneyline last week we take a look at two more possible upsets in the making.

Hamilton currently have the best odds to win the Grey Cup and they are 6-point favorites at home against the Edmonton Eskimos. Out west the Saskatchewan Roughriders host the rival Winnipeg Blue Bombers for the right to move on to the Grey Cup.

We break down the odds with analysis and predictions for both CFL playoff games this weekend.

Season Betting Trends

Favorites: 62-21 SU, 38-43-2 ATS
Home teams: 50-33 SU, 40-41-2 ATS
Over/Under: 39-43-1

CFL Division Semifinal Picks: 1-1
Season to date: 40-37-2

EDMONTON ESKIMOS AT HAMILTON TIGER-CATS (-6, 51.5)

Edmonton upset the Alouettes last week thanks to an incredible performance from quarterback Trevor Harris who completed 36 of 39 passes for 421 yards. While the Esks are a much better team with Harris at the helm, he'll have a harder time making his usual quick throws with the Tiger-Cats pass rush in his face. Hamilton racked up 54 sacks during the regular season and held opposing QBs to a league-low 61.9 completion percentage.

The Eskimos also have a terrific pass rush but it did little to slow down the Ti-Cats offense during the regular season. Hamilton rolled up 455 yards and 42 points against the Esks in Week 17, and 417 yards and 30 points two weeks earlier in Edmonton.

The Eskimos have struggled against quality opponents all year going 1-8-1 ATS against teams with a winning record while the Ti-Cats finished the season with a 6-1 ATS mark over their last seven games. The one game they failed to cover? The final game of the season which didn't matter in the least and where they rested most of their starters including QB Dane Evans.

Edmonton had an average scoring margin of plus-0.3 points per game during the regular season, while Hamilton had an average scoring margin of plus-11.5 ppg. Take the Ti-Cats to win and cover.

PICK: Hamilton -6


WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS AT SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS (-3, 45)

The Riders are currently at +250 to win the Grey Cup which is wild when you consider they started the season 1-3 with their only win coming against the godawful Argonauts. Since then they've gone 12-2 including 7-0 at home. Saskatchewan quarterback Cody Fajardo has emerged as a Most Outstanding Player finalist after beginning the year as a backup to...drumroll please...current Bombers signal-caller Zach Collaros.

These teams have played three games since September. Saskatchewan won both games in Regina by an average score of 20-11.5, while the Bombers routed the Riders 35-10 in Winnipeg. The Riders have one of the best front sevens in the league and allowed just 18.6 ppg at home this season.

Winnipeg's stop-unit went through an ugly spell towards the end of the year but played with a vengeance against Calgary in the semifinal, absolutely destroying last year's MOP in Bo Levi Mitchell. The Bombers run defense is the best in the CFL while their pass defense had the second-most interceptions in the league and held opposing QBs to the second-lowest completion percentage. Bet the Under.

PICK: Under 44.5

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BRANDON LEE
NFL | Nov 24, 2019
Giants vs. Bears

10* FREE NFL PICK (Bears -6)

I'll take my chances here with Chicago laying less than a touchdown at home against the Giants. Most would consider me crazy for backing a Bears team that has let me down week after week, but I'm willing to give them one more shot. I think the Giants defense is bad enough that a struggling Bears offense can finally put up some decent offensive numbers. At the same time, the Bears still have an elite defense and we have seen New York's offense cool off considerably over the last month.

Chicago is 25-12 ATS in their last 37 at home after losing 5/6 of their last 7. We also see that favorites who have failed to cover 4 of their last 5 like the Bears are 104-64 (62%) ATS after the first month of the season over the last 10 seasons. Give me Chicago -6!

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WILL ROGERS
NFL | Nov 24, 2019
Seahawks vs. Eagles
Seahawks+2

The set-up: Seattle has won three in a row, including two straight in OT. The Hawks got the job done vs. the 49ers before their bye week and now they come out refreshed with a new challenge. And that's to put the final nail in the coffin of the Eagles' playoff hopes. The Eagles looked poor in their 17-10 loss to the Patriots last weekend. Yes the Eagles are "desperate," but I don't think that's going to matter this weekend. Seattle is rested and it now needs to keep pace with the 49ers after their come from behind win over the Cardinals last Sunday.

The pick: Note as well that the Hawks are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 as a road dog, while the Eagles are a poor 2-6 ATS in their last eight after a non-conference contest. Philly' QB Carson Wentz looks brutal this season and while it's not entirely his fault, I have a hard time seeing this Eagles' offense suddenly "flipping a switch" and resolving all of their issues in a week. Seattle on the other hand has had an entire week off to game-plan and while I do think the outright win is obviously not out of the question, why not grab the points just in case?!

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JOHN MARTIN
NFL | Nov 24, 2019
Raiders vs. Jets

1 Unit FREE PLAY on New York Jets +3

The New York Jets are looking to finish the season strong. They have won their last two games in upset fashion over the Giants 34-27 and the Redskins 34-17. They racked up 410 yards on the Redskins last week and Sam Darnold and the offense are playing well. The Raiders are coming off three straight narrow home wins by one score. Now they have to travel out East for a cold weather game that they won’t enjoy. It’s also an early start time so 10:00 AM body clock for Raiders players. Oakland is 1-9 ATS off a home win over the last three seasons. The Raiders are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU win. The home team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Give me the Jets.

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JACK JONES
NFL | Nov 24, 2019
Jaguars vs. Titans

Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Jaguars/Titans OVER 41.5

The Tennessee Titans have been great offensively since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback. He is completing 71.3% of his passes and averaging 8.5 yards per attempt. Teams can no longer stack the box to stop Derrick Henry, and it showed against the Chiefs as the Titans won 35-32 behind 225 rushing yards, including 188 from Henry.

The Jaguars have a leaky defense and have given up 26 points to the Texans and 33 points to the Colts the last two weeks. The main culprit has been their run defense, which surrendered 216 yards to the Texans and 264 more yards to the Colts. The Titans should be able to do whatever they want offensively on this suspect Jacksonville defense.

I expect the Jaguars to be much sharper offensively this week in the second start back for Nick Foles. He actually threw the ball well against the Colts, but it didn’t result in many points. Foles was 33-of-47 for 296 yards with two touchdowns and one interception in the loss. I simply think this is a case of both offenses being better now than their season-long stats suggest, and thus we are getting a lower total than we should be getting here.

The OVER is 40-21 in Tennessee’s last 61 home games with a total of 38.5 to 42 points. The OVER is 7-0 in Titans last seven home games vs. poor passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 61% or higher. The OVER is 4-0 in Titans last four games overall with combined scores of 43, 50, 50 and 67 points. The OVER is 5-2-1 in the last seven meetings in Tennessee. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

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MARC LAWRENCE
NFL | Nov 24, 2019
Steelers vs. Bengals
Bengals+6½

Play - Cincinnati Bengals (Game 256).

Edges - Bengals: 5-0 ATS versus .500-plus opponents coming off a Thursday game, and 5-0 ATS off a non-division game versus foes off a division game … Steelers: 6-10-1 ATS as a road favorite coming off a division game. We recommend a 1* play on Cincinnati. Thank you and good luck as always.

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Tony Weston

The Washington Redskins are pathetic, and I truly don't understand how the Detroit Lions are laying just 3 1/2 points. I'll buy the half point down and lay just a field goal, of course, but the Lions should win by 10.

Washington just gave up 400 yards and 34 points Sunday to the New York Jets, who entered with the league’s worst offense. Washington’s defense is allowing opponents to convert on 49.28 percent of third downs - the worst rate in the league.

I would talk about the Lions, but this pick is more so against the Redskins, who have shown no consistency or promise on either side of the ball. They can't protect rookie Dwayne Haskins, who was sacked six times by the Jets. They can't stop anybody, see the stat above. Their special teams is anything but special.

Detroit is in after a valiant effort against the Dallas Cowboys, but couldn't come through with an upset. Detroit has now lost six of its last seven games, and this is a perfect opportunity for the Lions to get a critical win.

Jeff Driskel threw for 209 yards and two touchdowns against the Cowboys, and finished with a passer rating of 109.3 for the game. He also ran for 51 yards on eight carries. Overall, the Lions have the eighth-best offense in football, with 379.9 yards per game.

Look for Detroit to have its way with the Redskins and win this by double digits.

3* LIONS

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THE PREZ

Event: (265) Detroit Lions at (266) Washington Redskins
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: November 24, 2019 1PM EST
Play: Detroit Lions -3.5 (-105)

NFL Preview and Free Pick: Skins vs Lions

The Detroit Lions play the role of the visitor on Sunday in an NFC matchup against the Washington Redskins. The kickoff is slated for 1pm ET at FedExField in Landover, Maryland. Both teams have question marks at quarterback. The Lions have yet to announce the timetable for the return of quarterback Matthew Stafford. Redskins first-round pick Dwayne Haskins has been given the keys to the Washington offense but his spot on the depth chart is constantly in question.

Detroit Lions (-3.5, 41)

Backup Jeff Driskel and his Lions' teammates didn't do enough to earn the victory on Sunday but competed to the end in a 35-27 loss to Dallas. Driskel threw a pair of touchdowns and recorded 209 yards through the air. Detroit has a trio of capable receivers in Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr., and Danny Amendola. And newly promoted running back Bo Scarbrough rushed for 55 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries.

The defense has been the Lions Achilles this season. The unit ranks 30th overall in total yards allowed (413 yards) and have surrendered nearly 300 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.

Washington Redskins (+3.5, 41)

The Redskins have fired their head coach and traded salary with the obvious aim of building for the future. Washington lost 34-17 to the New York Jets this past Sunday. Haskins threw a pair of garbage time fourth-quarter touchdown passes. Running back Derrius Guice, active for the first time since Week 1, caught a 45-yard scoring touchdown and rushed for 24 yards via the ground. The Skins don't have a stretch-receiver and are led by rookie Terry McLaurin who has only 35 receptions and five TD's on the season.

Defensively this Skins team has had their moments this season. But the unit is allowing over 130 yards rushing per game and hemorrhaging third-down conversions.

Free Pick

Haskins isn’t comfortable in the pocket the skill-set he is surrounded with doesn't give him and the offense the best chance to be successful. Washington hasn’t scored more than 17 points in eight consecutive games.

Stafford did not practice Thursday and is expected to be inactive for Sunday's contest in Washington. And as porous as the Lions defense has been this season the Redskins are offensively challenged giving Detroit an opportunity to add to their league-low three interceptions and be the champions in a Sunday victory.

Free Pick is a play on the Detroit Lions minus the three-and-one-half points.

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TEDDY COVERS

Event: (255) Pittsburgh Steelers at (256) Cincinnati Bengals
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: November 24, 2019 1PM EST
Play: Total Under 38.5 (-108)

3% Take Pittsburgh – Cincinnati UNDER (#255-256)

Ryan Finley is clearly not the answer for the Bengals at quarterback, playing behind a beat up offensive line with limited skill position talent surrounding him. Cinci has been very content to hand the ball off to Joe Mixon again and again, shortening the game. Facing an elite Steelers defense on a chilly late November afternoon, there’s little reason to think that the Bengals offense is suddenly going to come to life; an offense that’s scored more than twenty points exactly once this season.

But the Steelers can’t be trusted to light up the scoreboard either! Mason Rudolph has been nothing short of awful on the highway, with Pittsburgh scoring on just 18% of their road game possessions – dead last in the NFL. And it’s not like Pittsburgh is gaining chunks of yards on the ground either – a full quarter of their running plays have gained zero or negative yardage, #31 in the NFL. Throw in a STRONG Mike Tomlin track record of divisional road games staying Under the total (11-2 to the Under in their last 13 tries) and we can expect another defensive struggle here. Take the Under

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NFL Week 12 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

New England went to the effort of listing Tom Brady (elbow) as questionable for Sunday's home game against Dallas. The SuperBook isn't buying it, though, with the Patriots still 6-point favorites.

NFL Week 12 will without a doubt include Tom Brady on the field, despite a late-week head fake from the Patriots. We check in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Injury Impact

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Among a lengthy Patriots injury list out Friday was Tom Brady’s name, noting the star quarterback was questionable with an elbow issue. New England dipped from -6.5 to -6 for its clash with visiting Dallas, but Osterman said that wasn’t due to Brady’s status. “The Patriots like to list a lot of guys questionable. We fully expect Brady to play.”

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Mike Tomlin’s troops face a skill-position shortage, as wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) and running back James Conner (shoulder) will sit out at Cincinnati. “Those were both expected, but once it became 100 percent known, the line dropped a half-point.” The Steelers are still -6.5 (-120) against the winless Bengals.

CLEVELAND BROWNS: Along with the suspensions of Myles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi for their roles in last week’s brawl against Pittsburgh, fellow defensive lineman Olivier Vernon (knee) is also out against visiting Miami. But Osterman said that didn’t impact the line, which has been at Browns -10.5 almost all week.

ATLANTA FALCONS: Devonta Freeman (foot) won’t play at home against Tampa Bay, but it’s another instance of an expected absence and had no impact on the line. Atlanta is laying 3.5.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Tight end George Kittle (knee/ankle) missed the last two games and is questionable Sunday against visiting Green Bay. If Kittle plays, “It’s maybe a 10-cent move. We would go from -3.5 (even) to -3.5 (-110).” However, wideouts Emmanuel Sanders (ribs) and Deebo Samuel (shoulder) are also questionable. “If more than one of those three is out, I could see a half-point move.”

DETROIT LIONS: QB Matthew Stafford (hip/back) will miss his third straight game, but Jeff Driskel starting was baked into the cake from the moment the Lions were posted -3.5 at Washington. The SuperBook briefly went to -3, but has been at -3.5 since Monday morning.

Weather Watch

OAKLAND AT NEW YORK JETS: Pretty much every game in the Northeast on Sunday is looking at rain. In this instance, there’s a 100 percent chance of precipitation at MetLife Stadium. “The total has come down 1.5 points because of the rain forecast.” The total was at 46.5 Friday.

SEATTLE AT PHILADELPHIA: Similar story, with a 90 percent chance of rain in Philly, prompting The SuperBook to drop the total from 49 to 48.

DALLAS AT NEW ENGLAND: Again, if it’s in the Northeast, it’s probably going to see rain, with a 100 percent chance of precipitation on Sunday. The total adjusted down 1.5 points to 44.5.

MIAMI AT CLEVELAND: It could be a little tough sledding for the warm-weather Dolphins, with temperatures in the low-40s and winds at 15 mph, but that’s not swaying oddsmakers. “No effect from the weather.” Rather, the total is up 1 point to 45.5 due to public money on the Over.

DETROIT AT WASHINGTON: This game might dodge the downpours expected throughout the Northeast, but some pregame rain could hit FedEx Field. “I would expect a small move if the field is affected, but most likely no move.”

Pros vs. Joes

DENVER AT BUFFALO: After covering at Minnesota last week, the Broncos are again drawing sharp action. “Pros on the Broncos, public on the Bills.” Buffalo is a 3.5-point favorite.

OAKLAND AT NEW YORK JETS: The aforementioned weather could help keep this game tight, with the Raiders laying 3. Sharp play is on the short home ‘dog, while the public is on Oakland.

GREEN BAY AT SAN FRANCISCO: “Pros are on the 49ers, and the public is on the Packers,” Osterman said of the Sunday night game. San Francisco opened -3.5, reached -4, dipped to -3, then got back to -3.5.

SEATTLE AT PHILADELPHIA: The Eagles opened -2.5, but Seahawks money took the line to Philly -1. “Pros are on the Eagles, and the public is on the Seahawks. The line moved in favor of the public. A lot of ‘Hawks money coming in.”

BALTIMORE AT LOS ANGELES: The Ravens opened -2.5, briefly got to -3.5 Monday, then spent the rest of the week at -3. “The public is all over the Ravens. The pros are on the Rams.”

Reverse Line Moves

DENVER AT BUFFALO: The Bills dropped from -4.5 to -3.5, but they are taking the bulk of the action, with sharp play on Denver driving the number down.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Total Talk - Week 12
Joe Williams

It's Week 12 of the National Football League regular season, as we're rounding the corner and heading for home. This is the final week of bye weeks for teams, and we'll have Thanksgiving next week with three Thursday battles. The Week 12 schedule started off with an AFC South defensive slog, as the Indianapolis Colts-Houston Texans battle saw the total cash 'under' tickets

What will we see this week, as the books look to bounce back after the public cashed big in Week 11.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 11 7-7 5-9 6-8

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 79-82-1 76-85-1 72-86-4

The totals ended up going 7-7 last week, with the 'under' remaining slightly ahead (82-79-1) for the season. It looked like the 'over' was going to dominate the weekend early on, but the late-game window saw the 'under' go 2-1, with the Sunday night and Monday night games also going well under.

The 'under' went 9-5 in the first half and bettors chasing 'over' tickets came up short as the low side produced an 8-6 mark in the second-half. On the season, here are the overall numbers for both the first-half (76-85-1) and second-half (72-86-4).

Division Bell

In the seven divisional battles in Week 11, the slight edge went to the 'over' - although the highly-anticipated AFC West showdown in Mexico City on Monday night between the Kansas City Chiefs-Los Angeles Chargers at Estadio Azteca cashed low. The under is now 29-24 (54.7%) in divisional games this season, which includes this past Thursday's result between the Colts and Texans.

Divisional Game Results Week 11
Cleveland at Pittsburgh Under (41.5) Cleveland 21, Pittsburgh 7
New Orleans at Tampa Bay Over (50.5) New Orleans 34, Tampa Bay 17
Atlanta at Carolina Under (49) Atlanta 29, Carolina 3
Jacksonville at Indianapolis Over (42) Indianapolis 33, Jacksonville 13
Buffalo at Miami Over (41.5) Buffalo 37, Miami 20
Arizona at San Francisco Over (44) San Francisco 36, Arizona 26
Kansas City vs. L.A. Chargers Under (53) Kansas City 24, L.A. Chargers 17

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 12 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Green Bay at San Francisco (SNF): 44 to 48
Tampa Bay at Atlanta: 54 ½ to 51 ½
Baltimore at L.A. Rams (MNF): 49 to 46 ½
Carolina at New Orleans: 49 to 51 ½
Dallas at New England: 42 to 40
Denver at Buffalo: 38 ½ to 40 ½
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: 38 ½ to 40 ½
Seattle at Philadelphia: 38 ½ to 40 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 12 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: Under 87%
Denver at Buffalo: Over 83%
Detroit at Washington: Under 80%
Miami at Cleveland: Over 77%
Tampa Bay at Atlanta: Over 75%
N.Y. Giants at Chicago: Under 70%
Oakland at N.Y. Jets: Over 67%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (66 percent) in the Seattle at Philadelphia matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in Jacksonville at Tennessee (63 percent) contest.

Handicapping Week 12

Week 11 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 4-3 23-28
NFC vs. NFC 1-1 18-17
AFC vs. AFC 0-2 15-14-1
AFC vs. NFC 2-1 24-22

Other Week 12 Action

Denver at Buffalo: The lowest total on the board will feature a little Allen-on-Allen crime. Quarterback Brandon Allen starts for the Broncos, while QB Josh Allen is the man in Buffalo, no relation. The Broncos have hit the 'under' in six of 10 games overall, and 3-2 in five games on the road. They're just 27th in the NFL with 17.2 points per game on offense, while ranking eighth in the NFL with 19.7 points per game allowed. They're averaging just 19.6 PPG on the road in five games, slightly higher than their overall mark. The Bills were the last team to hit an 'over', as the 'under' cashed in their first five. The under is just 3-2 in their past five games, but two of those games were high-scoring offensive performances against the lowly Dolphins. In the other three games against Philly, Washington and Cleveland during that five-game span, the offense is sputtering, averaging just 17.7 PPG.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: The Steelers blasted the Bengals 27-3 back in Week 4 on Monday Night Football, as the 'under' easily connected in that game. For the Bengals, the 'over' is actually 3-1 in their four home games, although they have scored just 17, 23, 17 and 13. It's their defense which has been trampled at Paul Brown Stadium, yielding 41, 26, 27 and 49. The Steelers have had their issues on the road this season, and the 'under' is actually a perfect 4-0 away from the Steel City. They scored just three points in Week 1 at New England, and seven last time out on Thursday in Cleveland. They'll be without center Maurkice Pouncey due to suspension from that Browns brawl in Week 11, so will that affect the offense? Six of the last eight meetings in this series have gone 'under.'

N.Y. Giants at Chicago: The Giants have struggled offensively with 322.2 total yards per game, ranking 24th, and they're a rather middling 22nd with 20.3 PPG. The 'over' is a perfect 5-0 on the road this season for the G-Men, averaging 23.2 PPG, and the Giants have gone over in each of their past three games. Their defense hasn't been able to stop anyone, allowing 27 or more point in six consecutive outings. Will that mean Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky finally rolls up big offensive numbers against someone? The 'under' has hit in four straight for Chicago, as they're averaging 14.3 PPG during that four-game span. Their biggest production was a 20-point outburst in a win against the Lions at home, which is where they'll be Sunday. The Bears have posted 25, 16 and 20 in their past three at home, while allowing an average of 22.0 PPG in the past three at Soldier Field.

Oakland at N.Y. Jets: The Raiders rank 23rd in the NFL in total yards allowed at 370.0, and they're a dismal 28th in the NFL in passing yards allowed at 264.1. It could be the perfect storm for Jets QB Sam Darnold, who had a career-high four touchdown strikes last week in Washington. In their four road games this season the Raiders have hit the 'over' three times, and they have posted at least 24 points in each of the past three. The defense is surrendering 31.8 PPG in their four games away from home, giving up at least 24 points in each of those games. The Jets have looked like a functional offense in the past two weeks, posting 34 points in each game, two wins. The 'over' is 4-0 in the past four, and 5-1 in the past six. In the past four games at home New York is allowing an average of 26.3 PPG.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: The Falcons have picked up victories in their past two outings, both divisional games, and it's their surprising defense which has led the mini resurgence. They're averaging 27.5 PPG in the two-game winning streak while the defense has only coughed up just four field goals. The 'under' is 4-0 in the past four overall for the Falcons, too, all against NFC opponents. For the Buccaneers, they're seventh in total yards (380.4) per game while posting 27.7 PPG to rank sixth in the NFL. They're allowing 371.8 total yards per game to rank 24th, and they're still dead-last in the NFL with 31.3 PPG. The Bucs have coughed up 27 or more points in eight straight games, and the 'over' has hit in each of those outings, the longest 'over' streak in the league so far this season. The 'over' is 5-1 in the past six meetings in this series, and 5-1 in the past six battles in Atlanta, too.

Detroit at Washington: The Lions declared QB Matthew Stafford (back) out for Sunday due to tiny fractures in his lower back, so QB Jeff Driskel makes another start. The offense didn't skip a beat last week in a 35-27 loss against the Cowboys at Ford Field, and they should be able to gain plenty of yards against a Redskins defense allowing 25.3 PPG, ranking 22nd in the NFL. The 'Skins allowed 34 to the Jets last week, and tied for their most points scored (17) since Week 2. It was their first 'over' results, snapping a 6-0 under run. The 'over' is actually 3-2 for the Redskins at home, with the defense yielding 31, 31, 33, 9 (in the mud and rain) and 34. We'll see if the Lions can add to their misery, and the conditions will be clear on Sunday.

Seattle at Philadelphia: The public has been pushing the total down in the Seattle-Philly battle on Sunday. Seattle plays its fourth out of five games in the Eastern Time Zone. The travel hasn't seemed to affect their offense, as they have scored 28, 32 and 27 in their previous three trips east, going 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS. They have allowed 26, 28 and 20 in those games, too. Meanwhile, Philly had hit the 'under' in each of their past three home games after the 'over' cashed in the first two at Lincoln Financial Field. The Eagles defense has come to play in the past three at home, allowing just 6, 14 and 17, or an average of 12.3 PPG during the span. The Seahawks are listed as underdogs for the fourth time this season, and they're 3-0 SU/ATS in those three games while the 'over' has connected in each of the outings.

Jacksonville at Tennessee: The Jaguars were trampled on the road last week in Indy, falling 33-13 despite the fact they got QB Nick Foles back from injury. The 'under' is 4-1 in the past five games against divisional foes for the Jags, but that lone over was last week. These teams met in Week 3 from Jacksonville, a 20-7 win by the Jags. However, there isn't much to glean from that matchup since the starting quarterbacks, Gardner Minshew and Marcus Mariota are now the backups. Since taking over for Mariota, QB Ryan Tannehill has helped the Titans post 23, 27, 20 and 35, hitting the 'over' in all four games. The defense is allowing 26.3 PPG during the span, giving up 20, 23, 30 and 32. The 'over' is 5-2-1 in the past eight meetings in Nashville. The Titans are playing with rest and Mike Vrabel's team posted a 28-14 road win over Dallas last season off the bye, his first situation coaching with a break.

Dallas at New England: The Cowboys hit the road for Foxboro, and it's a big measuring stick game. Dallas is No. 1 in total offensive yards per game (444.6), passing yards per game (312.7) and fourth in points scored (28.6). As such, the over is 3-0 in the past three, and 5-1 in the past six games overall for the Cowboys. The Patriots defense ranks No. 1 in total yards allowed (249.9) and points allowed (10.8). In their lone loss in Baltimore, they allowed 37 points on the road in Week 9. However, at home the Patriots have yielded 3, 14, 14 and 13, with the offense actually allowed 14 of those points on two defensive touchdowns by the Jets. The New England defense has really allowed just 7.5 PPG in four home games, so the Cowboys have their hands full. In three games against the NFC East, New England is allowing 10.3 PPG, hitting the 'under' in two of those outings.

Heavy Expectations

There are two games listed with a spread of double-digit points for Week 12, with the home team listed as favorites in each of them. The totals range from 46 to 46 ½ and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.

Miami at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. ET): The Thursday Night system is just 6-4 (60%) so far. The team playing at home in the previous 10 TNF games has hit the 'over' in six over in their next game. The Browns were the home in 'Helmetgate', or whatever you want to call it, so they're next up to keep the TNF system going. The Dolphins find themselves in a familiar spot this season, a double-digit underdog. It's the seventh time they're an underdog of 10 or more points, and the 'under' is 5-1 in those six games. And after a 2-1 'over' start at FirstEnergy Stadium in the first three, the Browns have hit the 'under' in each of the past two.

Carolina at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. ET): The honeymoon is over with QB Kyle Allen...or it's actually not 'over', but 'under'. The Panthers offense is averaging just 9.5 PPG over the past two, and they have 13, 30, 16 and 3 across their 1-3 SU/ATS run in the past four games, hitting the under three times during the span. The Saints bounced back with 34 points in Tampa last week, hitting the 'over' for the second time in three NFC South games. The Saints defense ranks sixth in total yards allowed (318.3) and third in rushing yards allowed (85.3), while allowing 19.9 PPG to rank 12th in the NFL. At home, the 'under' is 3-2 in five games in the Superdome. As a double-digit favorite, the Saints have hit the 'under' in both outings. Make a note that Allen's first career start came at New Orleans last season in Week 17 and the Panthers captured a 33-14 road win.

Under the Lights

Green Bay at San Francisco (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Packers hit the road for Levi's Stadium, and the Pack hope their trip to the West Coast goes better than their last visit. They fell 26-11 in Week 10 againts the Chargers, and it would have been a season low had they not scored a late touchdown with a two-point conversion. It's a rarity that the Packers are underdogs. They're 2-0 SU/ATS in those two previous outings this season, with the over/under splitting 1-1. For the 49ers, they're allowing 20, 3, 13, 27 and 26 at home, with the 'over' going 3-0 in the past three at home, and 4-0 in the past four overall. The defense has allowed 25 or more points in three straight, showing some chinks in the armor.

Baltimore at L.A. Rams (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Rams offense has struggled, posting a rather middling 366.5 total yards per game on offense to rank 13th, and they're 11th with 24.3 PPG scored. Defensively, they rank fifth in the NFL with just 89.1 rushing yards per game allowed, but it's a whole other animal trying to shut down QB Lamar Jackson. The Rams are underdogs for just the second time this season, and the 'over' cashed in that only previous outing. Los Angeles has had a power outage on offense lately, posting just 12 and 17 in the past two against the Steelers and Bears, whole allowing just 11 PPG across the past four. The 'under' has hit in five in a row for Los Angeles.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gridiron Angles - Week 12
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Saints are 11-0 ATS (14.09 ppg) since Sep 24, 2017 after a game in which they had zero turnovers.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Raiders are 0-10 ATS (-11.95 ppg) since Dec 08, 2016 on the road coming off a win.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Packers are 7-0 ATS (8.07 ppg) since Jan 15, 2017 coming off a home game where Davante Adams had at least a 30 yard reception.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Broncos are 11-0-1 OU (11.88 ppg) since Dec 28, 2008 as a road dog after a game in which they scored more field goals than touchdowns.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Giants are 0-10 OU (-13.35 ppg) since Sep 20, 2012 off a game as a favorite that went over the total by at least seven points.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Bears are 0-18 OU (-9.92 ppg) vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a double-digit loss as a dog in which they scored ten-plus points fewer than their seasonto-date average and had less than 34 minutes of possession time.