Service Plays Saturday 11/23/19

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-20-2019, 05:00 AM

DAVE ESSLER | CFB SIDE SAT, 11/23/19 - 3:30 PM
178 Baylor -5.0 (-110) Bookmaker vs 177 Texas

triple-dime bet
Analysis:
I've heard questions about whether Baylor could overcome the tough loss to Oklahoma. Here's the thing. Baylor HAD no huge expectations of going 11-1 this season. Their season win total was only 6.5 Texas DID have expectations. Their season win total was 9.5, and at 4-2 with losses to LSU and Oklahoma they were still good. Then they gave up 40 to Kansas and it's been downhill from there. So, I think that Iowa State loss just ends it for the Horns mentally, so Baylor is in the far better intangible form, I think. I've always pointed to Ehilinger's home road splits, bu²t listen to this. In September, 11 TD's and a pick. In October and not against the elite, 8 TD's to 6 picks. Give me the team that's defense is 20th in sack percentage, 20th in yards per rush, and 16th in yards per pass. And, they're at home, where they're undefeated this season, against a team they've lost to four straight years. The better team with the better defense, at home, with revenge. Can't not.

Pick Made: Nov 18 2019 2:03PM PST

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-20-2019, 05:00 AM

FEZZIK | CFB TOTAL SAT, 11/23/19 - 3:30 PM
116 Maryland / 115 Nebraska Under 62.5 Pinnacle

triple-dime bet
Analysis:
I have THREE huge releases on totals this week!

We made the totals LOWER AND we should see weather in all 3 games!

Pick Made: Nov 19 2019 3:17PM PST

FEZZIK | CFB TOTAL SAT, 11/23/19 - 7:30 PM
128 Wake Forest / 127 Duke Under 52.5 Westgate

triple-dime bet
Analysis:
›

Pick Made: Nov 19 2019 3:19PM PST

FEZZIK | CFB TOTAL SAT, 11/23/19 - 3:30 PM
182 Navy / 181 SMU Under 68.5 5dimes

triple-dime bet
Analysis:
NOTE TUESDAY CFB UPDATE›:

Strong lean OVERS in both games

101 ohio OVER LEAN OVER 55.5

103 EM No ILL lean OVER 56.5

Pick Made: Nov 19 2019 3:20PM PST

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-21-2019, 11:41 PM

SCOTT SPREITZER

8-Unit College Football Top Play of the Season

UAB +6

3 play Kent St. +3.5
3 play 1st half Under 23.5 Texas A&M / Georgia
4 play Northwestern +14

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-21-2019, 11:41 PM

Doc Sports

college

6-tulane+6
3-nevada+14
2-cuse+9.5
2-wisconsin-24.5
2-ark.st+1
2-texas+6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-21-2019, 11:41 PM

Bill Connelly (CFB Saturday)

Minnesota -13.5
Memphis -14.5
Arizona St +14.5
USC -13.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-21-2019, 11:42 PM

Emory Hunt

THE CZAR OF THE PLAYBOOK

Emory is the founder and CEO of Football Gameplan, which has been supplying analysis of all levels of football since 2007. Born and raised in New Orleans, Hunt played running back at the University of Louisiana-Lafayette and coached high school football before starting Football Gameplan. Hunt is a regular contributor to CBS Sports HQ, where he breaks down CFB and NFL games with Danny Kanell and Raja Bell.

ARKANSAS +44
ARKANSAS @ LSU | 11/23 | 7:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 11:46 AM
LSU's offense is one of the most explosive in college football, and the Tigers can beat you in a multitude of ways. Where LSU gets into trouble is on defense. Part of the reason is, the unit doesn't get much rest with the offense scoring so quickly. There's an opportunity here for the Tigers to get the blowout AND for the Razorbacks to cover the spread.

87-50-1 IN LAST 138 CFB ATS PICKS | +3284
3-1-1 IN LAST 5 LSU ATS PICKS | +190

LOUISIANA -14
TROY @ LOUISIANA | 11/23 | 5:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 11:39 AM
It's another Sun Belt game where a lot of points should be scored. Troy's defense is usually one of the best in the conference, but we will learn a lot about its ability to stop the run against one of the nation's top rushing attacks. The challenge will be on the Ragin' Cajuns defense to keep the Trojans offense in check.

87-50-1 IN LAST 138 CFB ATS PICKS | +3284
9-4 IN LAST 13 LALAF ATS PICKS | +454

2-1 IN LAST 3 TROY ATS PICKS | +79

PURDUE +24
PURDUE @ WISCONSIN | 11/23 | 4:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 11:34 AM
Purdue can put up points with its passing game, and as great as Wisconsin is up front, the Badgers are susceptible to allowing big plays. The Badgers will win because they can lean on the Boilermakers up front on both sides of the ball, but it won't be a blowout like the ones we saw from Wisconsin earlier in the season.

87-50-1 IN LAST 138 CFB ATS PICKS | +3284
9-4-1 IN LAST 14 WISC ATS PICKS | +463

BAYLOR -5.5
TEXAS @ BAYLOR | 11/23 | 3:30 PM EST
YESTERDAY 11:27 AM
Baylor and Texas are coming off of tough losses last week, but the Bears' loss was more shocking. They were dominating and up 28-3 before falling 34-31 to Oklahoma. Baylor is strong in the secondary and matches up well across the board. The Bears will make things tough for Sam Ehlinger and the Longhorns passing attack.

87-50-1 IN LAST 138 CFB ATS PICKS | +3284
3-1 IN LAST 4 BAYLOR ATS PICKS | +189

6-4 IN LAST 10 TEXAS ATS PICKS | +159

MARSHALL -7
MARSHALL @ CHARLOTTE | 11/23 | 3:30 PM EST
YESTERDAY 11:20 AM
Having seen the Thundering Herd play last week against Louisiana Tech, I came away impressed with their defense. Marshall does a great job of pressuring on the corners, throwing off the timing of the play. Also, the team is very stout against the run. This spread is close because of Marshall's offense, but trust in its defense to help get the cover.

87-50-1 IN LAST 138 CFB ATS PICKS | +3284
TEXAS ST. +30
TEXAS ST. @ APP. ST. | 11/23 | 2:30 PM EST
YESTERDAY 11:13 AM
Sun Belt Conference games can get a bit wacky late in the season. I don't envision this one turning out that way. What I do see happening is Texas State finding enough offense late in the game to make this one respectable. App State will win, but the 30-point spread seems a bit much.

87-50-1 IN LAST 138 CFB ATS PICKS | +3284
6-1 IN LAST 7 APLST ATS PICKS | +490

EAST CAROLINA -14
EAST CAROLINA @ CONNECTICUT | 11/23 | 12:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 11:06 AM
The Huskies find themselves in a very similar situation as UMass. Their defense isn't playing up to par and they struggle to move the ball with consistency on offense. I like how East Carolina has played up for opponents every week. This one is going to test the Pirates' mental toughness and focus, which is why the line is what it is. Don't fret, ECU will roll over UConn.

87-50-1 IN LAST 138 CFB ATS PICKS | +3284
3-1 IN LAST 4 UCONN ATS PICKS | +190

BYU -40
BYU @ MASSACHUSETTS | 11/23 | 12:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 11:00 AM
UMass' defense is giving up over 50 points per game. It's an historically bad season for the Minutemen, and one that will continue to get worse before it gets better. BYU's defense will be the story in this one, and a key reason why the Cougars will cover this 40-point spread.

87-50-1 IN LAST 138 CFB ATS PICKS | +3284
3-0 IN LAST 3 MA ATS PICKS | +300

OHIO ST. -18
PENN ST. @ OHIO ST. | 11/23 | 12:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 10:02 AM
Penn State's offense has slowed down a tad over the last couple of weeks. QB Sean Clifford has to get his level of play back to what we saw from him prior to the Minnesota game. Unfortunately for him, the Buckeyes enter this game with defensive end Chase Young back in the lineup and with one of the best defenses in the nation. Lay the points with Ohio State.

87-50-1 IN LAST 138 CFB ATS PICKS | +3284
10-5-1 IN LAST 16 OHIOST ATS PICKS | +446

7-3 IN LAST 10 PSU ATS PICKS | +379

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-22-2019, 07:32 AM

'Stanford Steve' and 'The Bear': Week 13 college football picks, bets, nuggets

What's in store for this week in college football?
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica break down Week 13 of the season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets, games to stay away from and a special money-line underdog parlay to jump on.
With the season in full swing, the guys are ready to continue their prognostications. Here we go with Week 13 picks.

The plays

Stanford Steve (4-2 last week, 33-27-2 overall)

The Bear (2-2 last week, 29-25-1 overall)

Air Force Falcons (-22, 55.5) at New Mexico Lobos
Stanford Steve: The Lobos have been decimated by injuries this season. They most recently lost running backs Bryson Carroll and Ahmari Davis and are down to 57 scholarship players after enduring 14 season-ending injuries. They don't have enough scout-team running backs to help prep for the vaunted Air Force rush attack. New Mexico started the season 2-1 and has since lost seven in a row. It seems like the Lobos don't have enough to keep it close.
Pick: Air Force -22; Air Force 45, New Mexico 15

Nebraska Cornhuskers (-5, 62.5) at Maryland Terrapins
Stanford Steve: The Huskers come in losers of four in a row, but they have been competitive since they got quarterback Adrian Martinez back under center. Last week, Martinez and running back Dedrick Mills combined to rush for 277 yards against a very good Wisconsin defense. I also think it's important to point out that Nebraska still has a bowl berth to play for, as the Huskers sit at 4-6 with two games left. Maryland, on the other hand, has been eliminated from postseason play, and therefore, I think the Terps might not be putting their best effort forward. I'll take the road team on the money line and not have to give any points.
Pick: Nebraska ML -180; Nebraska 38, Maryland 34

California Golden Bears at Stanford Cardinal (-4, 41.5)
Stanford Steve: This game basically depends on who has the better backups because both teams have suffered many, many injuries. The Bears come in losers of five of their past six after a 4-0 start, and Stanford comes in needing wins against Cal and against Notre Dame next week to qualify for a bowl game. Both teams will be starting backup quarterbacks, and the defenses should dominate the game, as the offenses also lack skill talent on both sidelines. Many will say the under is the play in the game, and it's hard to argue with that. But I will say the underdog keeps it close enough, due to motivation to avoid losing 10 in a row in the Big Game. I'll take the points.
Pick: Cal +4; Stanford 21, Cal 20

Colorado State Rams at Wyoming Cowboys (-6.5, 50.5)
The Bear: CSU has played pretty well the second half of the season and certainly deserved a better fate last week vs. Air Force. Wyoming's defense -- especially at home -- will probably give the Rams' offense some problems, but the Cowboys' lack of a passing game should allow CSU to hang around. Six of Wyoming's 10 games this season have been one-possession games, and that's all we're looking for here.
Pick: Colorado State +6.5

Michigan Wolverines (-9.5, 52.5) at Indiana Hoosiers
The Bear: The Hoosiers play hard, and one of these days, it's going to result in an upset win over a ranked opponent. I wish I had more info on the status of Whop Philyor, as his absence would hurt the Indiana offense, but getting close to double digits here is enough for me, as Michigan has had a run under Jim Harbaugh of not covering the week before playing Ohio State. I expect the Hoosiers to make things much tougher on the Wolverines than Michigan State did in the second half.
Pick: Indiana +9.5

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-4, 51.5)
The Bear: USM has been blowing people out in Hattiesburg this season and, thanks to suspensions at Louisiana Tech, has a shot to play for the conference title. The Hilltoppers have been a pleasant surprise this season and probably played their best game of the season last week in the win at Arkansas. But in their final home game, with a healthy backfield and playing their best ball of the season, I'll go with USM.
Pick: Southern Miss -4

UCF Knights (-6, 70) at Tulane Green Wave
The Bear: Tulane was sloppy last week in a loss at Temple, but this offense could give the UCF defense fits. The Knights have been burning money at the windows most of the season, and I expect that run to continue here against a team hungry to make amends for a poor effort last week.
Pick: Tulane +6

Ball State Cardinals (-3.5, 67.5) at Kent State Golden Flashes
The Bear: We saw Buffalo bounce back Wednesday after giving the game away to Kent State. How will the Golden Flashes handle getting a win they probably shouldn't have had? On the other side, Ball State blew a huge lead to Central Michigan, so I would expect the Cardinals to come out with a strong effort.
Pick: Ball State -3.5

Stanford Steve's worst Thursday game of the year, and you want to bet it because you know you'll be watching

NC State Wolfpack at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-2, 49)
Take the home team on the money line. NC State has been decimated by injuries, and the Wramblin' Wreck still has a chance to make its season with a win here and an opportunity to ruin No. 4 Georgia's season next week.
Pick: Georgia Tech ML -140; Georgia Tech 17, NC State 16

The Bear's money-line parlay of the week

Six-team favorite ML parlay. Based on current Caesars odds, $100 returns $41.
Virginia -900
Wisconsin -4000
Utah -2500
Notre Dame -1600
Ohio State -1200
Air Force -2500

The Bear's underdogs to play in parlays, round robins and/or on ML

Colorado State +210
Texas A&M +420
West Virginia +200
Oregon State +310
Tulane +190

Stay-away games

Stanford Steve

Georgia Southern Eagles (-1, 55) at Arkansas State Red Wolves
Both these teams have plenty to play for, and both have been playing well lately. Therefore, I will sit back and watch and enjoy this one.
The Bear

Syracuse Orange at Louisville Cardinals (-9, 62)
Where did that come from last week, Syracuse? It probably can't be replicated this week against Louisville. But now that UL is bowl-eligible and has Kentucky next week, is this a flat spot?

Tennessee Volunteers at Missouri Tigers (-4, 45.5)
Missouri's defense played well enough for the Tigers to win last week, but the offense again struggled. Now the Tigers get surging Tennessee and are 4-point favorites. It sure looks like the Vols might have square 'dog written all over them.

Bear Bytes

Zoned out
Each of Oregon's past four trips to the state of Arizona to take on the Sun Devils and Wildcats have been eventful. The Ducks have lost three of the four games, including all three in which they were favored. Oregon's lone win in the stretch was a controversial 61-55 OT win at ASU in 2015 that they needed to rally from a double-digit second-half deficit.
Oregon's past four Pac-12 games in Arizona:
2018: Arizona -8, lost by 29
2017: Arizona State -15, lost by 2
2015: Arizona State +2, won by 6 (OT)
2013: Arizona -20, lost by 26
Sun Devils a live 'dog?
As an underdog under Herm Edwards, Arizona State is 8-5 ATS, with six outright wins. In three games as a double-digit 'dog, ASU is 2-1 ATS, with one outright win. In those three games, ASU allowed a total of 55 points.
Dating to 2014, Arizona State has been a double-digit underdog 11 times. The Sun Devils have won six of those games outright and are 9-2 ATS.
Huge spread in top-10 matchup
Penn State is currently an 18-point underdog to Ohio State. In the past 40 years, only seven top-10 matchups have seen a point spread this big. All seven favorites won, and they went 5-2 ATS.
Largest point spreads in top-10 matchups (past 40 years):
2016: Alabama (-18) vs. Texas A&M, won by 19
2013: Florida State (-21.5) vs. Miami, won by 27
2000: Florida State (-19.5) vs. Clemson, won by 47
1999: Florida State (-18) vs. Georgia Tech, won by 6
1996: Nebraska (-18) vs. Colorado, won by 5
1995: Nebraska (-25) vs. Kansas, won by 38
1995: Nebraska (-23.5) vs. Kansas State, won by 24
Buckeyes, Wolverines caught looking ahead?
Michigan and Ohio State have not fared well ATS the week prior to playing each other. Michigan hasn't covered any of the past three years, including two non-covers as a favorite vs. Indiana. The Buckeyes haven't covered any of the past six, despite being two-TD favorites in all six.
Michigan the week prior to Ohio State (past three years):
2018: vs. Indiana +28, won by 11
2017: at Wisconsin -7, lost by 14
2016: vs. Indiana +25, won by 10
Ohio State the week prior to Michigan (past six years):
2018: at Maryland +14, won by 1
2017: vs. Illinois +41.5, won by 38
2016: at Michigan State +21, won by 1
2015: vs. Michigan State +14, lost by 3
2014: vs. Indiana +35.5, won by 15
2013: vs. Indiana +34.5, won by 28
Who wants to lay 40-plus on the road with BYU?
BYU is currently a 41-point favorite at UMass. It's the second straight week in which a road team is a 40-point favorite; Ohio State was -52 at Rutgers. Prior to that, one has to go back to 2015 to find the most recent 40-point road favorite: Baylor -45 at Kansas.
Irish far from a cinch vs. BC?
This marks the fifth straight meeting in which Notre Dame is at least a 14-point favorite over Boston College. The Irish have covered only one of the four; they won two of the games by two and three points.
Struggling Spartans
Since the start of last season, Michigan State has been a favorite of at least 14 points eight times. MSU is 1-7 ATS in those eight games, including outright losses to Arizona State and Illinois this year as 15.5-point favorites.
Indiana, we're all for you ...
In its past six games vs. ranked opponents, Indiana is 5-1 ATS. Indiana was 2-7-1 ATS in its previous 10 games vs. ranked teams. The Hoosiers have dropped 17 straight straight-up vs. ranked opponents and are 2-41 in their past 43 games vs. ranked opponents.
Big game, small number
In the past 40 years, there have been 10 meetings between Cal and Stanford in which the line was three points or fewer. The Cardinal are 8-2 ATS in those eight games and won seven of the 10 outright (7-2-1). Both times under David Shaw that the Cardinal were favored by a field goal or less over Cal, the Cardinal won by double digits.
UCF burning money at the windows
UCF has dropped six of seven ATS, with three of those losses coming outright as a favorite.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-22-2019, 07:32 AM

Best bets for Week 13 college football games

Every Thursday during the season, Bill Connelly, Doug Kezirian, Preston Johnson and Phil Steele will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for the 13th full week of the college football season:
Season ATS records:
Connelly record: 25-12-2 (3-1 last week)
Steele record: 29-34 (5-0 last week)
Johnson record: 33-23-1 (2-0 last week)
Kezirian record: 41-32-1 (4-3 last week)
Note: Lines displayed are Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Wednesday night.

Saturday's games

No. 8 Penn State Nittany Lions at No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (-18)

Kezirian: I'm not concerned about laying this kind of lumber against a top-10 team (not a big rankings guy). This is about Ohio State being historically dominant and Penn State being a bit of a mirage. I'm surprised the Nittany Lions rank in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, but this is a straight play from the eye test. I think the Buckeyes will successfully throw deep, just as we saw Minnesota do against Penn State. With the return of Chase Young, I trust the defense can keep the Nittany Lions in check here. I expect a rout.
Pick: Ohio State -18

No. 7 Utah Utes (-23) at Arizona Wildcats

Kezirian: Oregon is getting all the hype as a potential CFP participant, but Utah is also in the mix -- and I think the Utes are better. They have a smothering defense, and the offense is better than people realize. QB Tyler Huntley has battled some injuries, but he is reliable and has thrown only one interception all season. The Utes just dominated UCLA 49-3, and I think we are in store for a similar outcome Saturday. Arizona is lifeless right now and likely playing for only next week's rivalry game against Arizona State. The Wildcats mustered just two field goals last week in a blowout loss at Oregon, and I expect similar ineptitude against Utah. The Utes have covered six straight games, including two with a 21-point spread. I trust them to handle their business against such a finesse team as Zona.
Pick: Utah -22.5

No. 10 Minnesota Golden Gophers (-13.5) at Northwestern Wildcats

Connelly: Let's lean on SP+ for some quick math. Since conference play began for the Gophers -- we're ignoring their early nonconference performances because they are clearly a different team now -- they have played the teams ranked 51st (Illinois), 55th (Nebraska), 61st (Purdue) and 80th (Maryland) in SP+. They won those games by an average of 24.8 points.
Northwestern is 84th. The Wildcats averaged 6.3 yards per play against UMass last week, which sounds fine until you realize it was the second-lowest average UMass' wretched defense has allowed this season (ahead of only Akron). Northwestern needed a special-teams score to get to 45 points, the third-lowest total UMass has allowed. This is still a miserable offense, and Minnesota probably won't need to top 24 or 27 points to cover a two-score spread. Even counting the Gophers' sketchy early games, SP+ sees this as a three-touchdown Minnesota win.
Pick: Minnesota -13.5

No. 18 Memphis Tigers (-15) at South Florida Bulls

Connelly: SP+ has been in love with Memphis this season, picking the Tigers to cover in all but one game and going a solid 6-2-1 ATS in Memphis games overall. I've included them multiple times in this column, and I'm going to keep doing so here.
USF nearly upset Cincinnati last week -- should have, actually -- but my first inclination is to think that had more to do with the suddenly slumping Bearcats (who nearly lost to ECU in their previous game) than the Bulls. They've got a rock-solid defense, but only one team in the past nine games has held Memphis under 35 points. Meanwhile, the Bulls have averaged 9.6 points per game in five games against SP+ top-50 opponents. I smell blowout, and SP+ says Tigers by 22.9.
Pick: Memphis -14.5

No. 6 Oregon Ducks (-14.5) at Arizona State Sun Devils

Connelly: This a huge test for Oregon. The Ducks were, per SP+, lucky to beat both Washington and Washington State back in October and remain ranked in the teens, but they certainly seem to have picked up the pace of late. They outscored USC and Arizona by a combined 90-30. Meanwhile, ASU has lost four games in a row (including one to USC).
Why do I feel good about Arizona State in this one?
1. ASU QB Jayden Daniels has looked fantastic in three of his past four games. Utah destroyed him, as tends to happen, but against Wazzu, USC and Oregon State, he completed 69% of his passes with nine TDs and no INTs. The Sun Devils averaged 35 PPG in those three contests.
2. Oregon's defense has been trending downward. After peaking briefly at No. 1 in defensive SP+, the Ducks allowed 30 PPG to Washington, Wazzu and USC before rebounding last week against Arizona. ASU's defense has been trending downward, too, but if the Sun Devils can get to 28-31 points, covering +14.5 starts to look pretty good.
3. SP+ says Oregon by about 10. Granted, it's only .500 ATS on Oregon and ASU games, but I like that 4.5-point cushion.
Pick: ASU +14.5

UCLA Bruins at No. 23 USC Trojans (-14, 66)

Connelly: Once again, I'm listening to SP+ here. It's hard for me to trust the Trojans, if only because they're extremely young and occasionally flaky, but the metric loved USC's chances of whomping Cal last week, so I made it a best bet and won. It's telling me the line should be more like USC -17.5 here, so I'm listening to that as well. (Plus, only one of UCLA's losses to power conference teams this season has been even slightly close. The Bruins either win or get blown out.)
Pick: USC -13.5
Kezirian: I'm focusing on the total, and I don't expect many punts. UCLA's defense has posted decent numbers against shaky offenses but has been lit up by explosive offenses. Those all ranked among the top 25 in offensive efficiency, and so does USC's offense (18th). The Trojans should score at will, given their premier talent at wide receiver, but I don't like them necessarily to cover because I don't trust their defense, especially with some key injuries. UCLA will play hard, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson will make enough plays.
Pick: Over 65.5 and USC team total over 39.5 (FanDuel)

Texas Longhorns at No. 14 Baylor Bears (-5)

Steele: Texas lost at Iowa State last week 23-21 on a field goal on the final play of the game. The Longhorns' defense has been getting a little healthier and has held the previous three opponents to 36 yards per game below their season average. Baylor led Oklahoma 28-3 last week but let it slip away at the end in a tough, all-out effort that ended in a home loss. The past three times Baylor has been favored, it needed overtime to get past Texas Tech and TCU and beat West Virginia by only three. Tom Herman is an outstanding 16-3 ATS as an underdog during his head-coaching career, including 11 outright upsets.
ATS pick: Texas +5.5

Tennessee Volunteers at Missouri Tigers (-4)

Steele: Missouri had been two different teams this season, as the Tigers are 5-1 at home and 0-4 on the road. The past four weeks, Missouri is 0-4, losing by an average score of 25-7 with an offense that has produced just 259 yards per game. Tennessee has won three in a row and needs only one more win to wrap up a bowl bid. The Volunteers' defense has held its past four foes to 85 yards per game below their season average. My average game grades have Tennessee playing at a 99.6 level the past four weeks, with Missouri at an 85.4 grade in that span. Factor in the home field, and that would have Tennessee by 10.2, yet the Volunteers are catching four points.
ATS pick: Tennessee +4

Syracuse Orange at Louisville Cardinals (-9)

Steele: A few weeks ago, I picked Boston College (+3) over Syracuse, and BC destroyed the Orange 58-27, dropping Syracuse to 3-6. That ugly loss was the fifth straight loss against the spread for Syracuse, and it figured to get extra line value the rest of the season. But Dino Babers is a master motivator, upsetting Clemson in 2017 and nearly doing so again the following year. He had a bye to convince his team that it could win the last three games and get to a bowl. Last week showed that the team bought in, as the Orange beat Duke on the road 49-6. One of their top defensive players, defensive tackle McKinley Williams had been out all season but returned in that game and was disruptive.
Louisville was generally picked last in its division and last week was outgained by NC State 377-326 but took advantage of a Wolfpack team missing its top five defensive backs and won 34-20. That clinched a bowl bid for the Cardinals and sparked a celebration, and on deck, they have their in-state rival Kentucky. Three of the Cardinals' ACC wins have been by two, three and seven points, and they are laying nearly double digits here.
ATS pick: Syracuse +9.5

Boston College Eagles at No. 16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-19)

Steele: Boston College is fresh off a bye, and Notre Dame is playing for a fifth straight week. The Irish are just 1-5 ATS their past six home finales. Boston College has an explosive offense with an underrated offensive line opening holes for 282 rush yards per game and allowing just five sacks all season. Teams load the box to stop the run, but the Eagles are passing for 202 yards per game. Notre Dame has faced seven Power 5 teams this season and is plus-15 yards per game in those. Steve Addazio is 13-3-1 ATS as an away underdog the past six season, and I will side with the Eagles as nearly three-touchdown underdogs.
ATS pick: Boston College +19

Houston Cougars at Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-3)

Steele: Houston has been giving reasonable effort versus some solid teams in recent weeks but appeared to run out of gas in the second quarter versus Memphis last week. The Cougars were outgained 531-256 to fall to 3-7. Houston has a banged-up offensive line and has numerous players redshirting for next season. Tulsa is also 3-7 but could have a much better record. In its most recent game, Tulsa upset a strong UCF team at home 34-31. The Hurricane defense is holding foes to 44 yards per game below their season average, and Tulsa is fresh off a bye.
ATS pick: Tulsa -3

UCF Knights (-6) at Tulane Green Wave

Kezirian: Professional bettor Paul Stone brought this game to my attention. The situation is ideal for Tulane, which has covered all five home games this season. It's also a fade on UCF, which is 1-6 ATS in its past seven games. The Knights are already bowl-eligible, and this game means nothing for them. I'll grab the points with the home 'dog.
Pick: Tulane +6

BYU Cougars (-40) at UMass Minutemen

Kezirian: The horrible, one-win season for UMass comes to a merciful end Saturday. It has been a pitiful season, which is understandably taking its toll on the players. At the end of last week's 39-point loss to Northwestern, the Minutemen had an opportunity to find the end zone for the first time all game. Coach Walt Bell neglected to call timeouts, the players didn't increase their tempo, and they walked off the field with possession inside the 10-yard line. The beatdowns seem to have broken their spirits, and next they face a BYU team full of grown men. It should get ugly at McGuirk Stadium in the regular-season finale.
Pick: BYU -40

SMU Mustangs at Navy Midshipmen (-3.5, 66)

Johnson: I remain astonished by the market love Navy -- a team whose best win is a three-point home victory over Tulane -- got last week against the Irish. A few sportsbooks reached +6.5 for a period of time on game day. I didn't get the Navy love, and we saw Notre Dame absolutely expose the pass defense to the tune of 13.9 yards per pass attempt and 52 points (the Irish went into prevent offense for the entirety of the fourth quarter, too). On the season, SMU ranks top 20 in passing efficiency behind Shane Buechele (which grades better than the Irish on the season). Navy will struggle on the defensive side of the ball again, and the Mustangs have had two weeks to prepare for the Midshipmen option attack.
If SMU is unable to slow Navy's run game, then the scoring will be back and forth, and that lends to a bet on the over (think SMU-Memphis or ECU-SMU in their past two contests). The Mustangs can still cover 3.5 points either way in this instance, and I project taking the points and betting the over will go 2-0 more often than 0-2. My projections for the game are Navy -1.2 with a total of 70.0, and I'll be betting both.
Pick: SMU +3.5 and over 66

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-22-2019, 10:45 AM

Lee Sterling

45* Miami

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-22-2019, 11:20 AM

Dave Cokin:

118 Kent State +3:
191 Syracuse +9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-22-2019, 11:20 AM

LV Wolf
Rutgers +21

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-22-2019, 11:21 AM

Ultra Sports

CFB:

187 Pittsburgh +4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-22-2019, 10:10 PM

King Creole 3* top play on over 55.5 in North Texas/Rice.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-22-2019, 10:10 PM

Parlay winners
SATURDAY FOOTBALL PLAYS

Play Charlotte +7 over Marshall (NCAA Football)

Marshall has lost 97 of the last 178 games against the spread vs. conference opponents and they have lost 36 of the last 57 games against the spread when playing as a road favorite.

Play Oregon -14.5 over Arizona State (NCAA Football)

Oregon has covered the spread in 78 of the last 135 road games and they have covered the spread in 88 of the last 154 games coming off a conference win in their last game.

Play Florida Atlantic -20 over UTSA (NCAA Football)

Florida Atlantic has covered the spread in 8 of the last 9 games when playing as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points and they have covered the spread in 12 of the last 15 games coming off an UNDER the total in their last game.

Play Texas A&M +13.5 over Georgia (NCAA Football)

Texas A&M has covered the spread in 15 of the last 21 games coming off a game where they forced one or less turnovers and they have covered the spread in 9 of the last 11 games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their last game.

Play Utah -22.5 over Arizona (NCAA Football)

Utah has covered the spread in 20 of the last 29 games when playing as a favorite and they have covered the spread in 11 of the last 14 games coming off an OVER the total in their last game.

Service Plays Saturday 11/23/19

Service Plays Saturday 11/23/19

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