Thursday 11-28-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-27-2019, 07:43 AM

Thursday, November 28

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OLE MISS (4 - 7) at MISSISSIPPI ST (5 - 6) - 11/28/2019, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-1 against the spread versus OLE MISS over the last 3 seasons
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-1 straight up against OLE MISS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-27-2019, 07:44 AM

NCAAF

Week 14

Trend Report

Thursday, November 28

Mississippi @ Mississippi State
Mississippi
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Mississippi's last 6 games when playing on the road against Mississippi State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Mississippi's last 6 games when playing Mississippi State
Mississippi State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Mississippi State's last 6 games when playing Mississippi
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Mississippi State's last 6 games when playing at home against Mississippi

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-27-2019, 07:49 AM

Tech Trends - Week 14
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Nov. 28

Matchup Skinny
Edge

OLE MISS at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Rebs have covered last 3 and 6 of last 7 this season, while MSU 1-5 vs. spread last six TY. Road team has won and covered last four Egg Bowls!
Ole Miss, based on series trends.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-27-2019, 07:51 AM

Betting Recap - Week 12
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 12 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 10-3
Against the Spread 5-7-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 10-3
Against the Spread 7-5-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 4-9

National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 111-60-1
Against the Spread 74-93-5

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 95-76-1
Against the Spread 74-93-5

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 84-87-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Redskins (+4, ML +170) vs. Lions, 19-16
Buccaneers (+3.5, ML +165) at Falcons, 35-22
Jets (+3.5, ML +160) vs. Raiders, 34-3

The largest favorite to cover
Browns (-10.5) vs. Dolphins, 41-24
Titans (-4.5) vs. Jaguars, 42-20
Bills (-4) vs. Broncos, 20-3

How About Dem Cowboys?

-- The Dallas Cowboys (+5.5) were able to grab the cover on the road against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Mass. in a chilly, mist and fog. While, yes, the Cowboys were able to grab a cover, they fell against a winning team yet again. The Cowboys have beaten the New York Giants (twice), the Washington Redskins, the Miami Dolphins, the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions. The combined records of the teams Dallas has beaten is 16-49-1, and they haven't recorded a win over a team with a record over .500. The best record of anyone they have beaten is Philadelphia at 5-6. Someone has to win the NFC East, as the Cowboys (6-5) are the only team over .500. They don't seem like to go very far, however.

While they're all well and good, they're still covering. The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS across the past five outings, and 7-4 ATS overall. That includes a 4-2 ATS mark on the road, and they're 3-0 ATS across the past three away from home. Sunday's game in Foxboro marked the first time they were an underdog, and they covered at most shops.

Total Recall

-- The two highest totals on the board Sunday were the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Atlanta Falcons (51.5) and Green Bay Packers-San Francisco 49ers (48). The Buccaneers certainly did their part, throwing up 35 points, incuding 19 points in the first-half. The teams combined for 29 points to hit the first-half 'over' in this one, too. In the SNF game, over bettors weren't as fortunate, which is part for the course for primetime games this season. The first-half under narrowly cashed thanks mostly to a goose egg for the Pack, as San Francisco hoisted up 23 points in the first 30 minutes.

The next highest totals on the board were the Thursday night battle between the Indianapolis Colts-Houston Texans (46.5) and Sunday's NFC South tilt under the roof between the Carolina Panthers-New Orleans (46.5). The TNF game was a low-scoring 20-17 battle in favor of the home team, while the home side also won by three in the NFC South battle in NOLA, but this game hit the over rather easily. In fact, we had 10 or more combined points in each quarter, and 32 total points on the board at halftime to cover a first-half 'over'.

There were three totals on the board under 40, the Denver Broncos-Buffalo Bills (37), Pittsburgh Steelers-Cincinnati Bengals (37) and Detroit Lions-Washington Redskins (39) each hit the 'under'. The Broncos-Bills game saw a total of just 23 points, the Steelers-Bengals game saw just 26 point sand the Lions-Redskins tilt was the 'highest' scoring of the trio, totaling 35 points. Still, defense reigned supreme, which is never good for a betting public which tends to lean 'over' more often than not.

The 'under' made a clean sweep in the Week 11 primetime battles, and so far the 'under' is 2-0 under the lights with the Baltimore Ravens-Los angeles Rams (47) game still pending. The 'over' is just 12-24 (33.3%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Eagles QB Carson Wentz (hand) will have tests on his right hand after suffering an injury in Sunday's game vs. the Seahawks.

Looking Ahead - Divisional Battles

-- We have two divisional battles out of the three Thanksgiving games. The Bears and Lions kick off the festivities at 12:30 p.m. ET at Ford Field. The Lions, coming off a disappointing 19-16 loss in Washington, has dropped four in a row while failing to cover six in a row after a 4-1 ATS start. The four-game losing streak including a 20-13 loss on Nov. 10 in Chicago, a game which hit the 'under'. Chicago heads into this game with a 9-1 ATS mark in their past 10 divisional games, while Detroit is 2-6 ATS in their past eight at home and 2-6 ATS in the past eight inside the division. The Bears are an impressive 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven in this series, with the favorite 4-0-1 ATS in the past five battles and the under 6-2 in the previous eight meetings.

-- The other divisional battle on Turkey Day is a rematch between the Saints and Falcons in Atlanta. The Falcons stunned the Saints by a 26-9 score in Week 10, winning outright as 13.5-point underdogs. It served as a wake-up call for the Saints, who have scored 34 points in each of the past two outings, both wins and 'over' results. New Orleans has cashed in 24 of the past 32 road games, while Atlanta is still just 6-13 ATS in the past 19 games overall. The underdog is 9-3 ATS in the past 12 meetings in this series, and the under has hit in four of the past five meetings, and seven of the past 10 in Atlanta.

-- The Browns and Steelers will renew acquaintances at Heinz Field just 18 days after 'Helmetgate', or whatever you want to call the brawl which saw DE Myles Garrett suspended for the remainder of the field for swinging QB Mason Rudolph's helmet at the signal caller. After a 2-6 SU start the Browns have rattled off three straight wins, including a 21-7 victory over the Steelers on Nov. 14. Of course, all three of those victories came at FirstEnergy Stadium. The Browns are 2-3 SU/ATS in their five games away from home. Cleveland is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six in this series, but the home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetngs, too, with the 'over' 4-1 in the past five meetings in Pittsburgh.

-- The Titans and Colts will square off in Indy. Tennessee is 15-33-3 ATS in the past 51 AFC South battles, and they're 1-4 ATS in the past five against winning teams. Indy has covered in seven straight divisional games, and they're 18-7-1 ATS in the past 26 against winning teams. In this series, the Titans are a dismal 3-13 ATS in the past 16 meetings, with Tennessee 1-7 ATS in the past eight trips to Lucas Oil Stadium.

-- The Rams travel to meet the Cardinals, looking to stay hot on the road. L.A. is 6-1 ATS in the past seven on the road. The Rams have dominated this series, too, covering four in a row overall, and four straight in Arizona. The road team is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings, too.

-- The Chargers and Broncos square off in Denver. The Bolts have been strong on the road, going 9-3-1 ATS in the past 13 on the road, including 6-0-1 ATS in the past seven on the road against a team with a losing home record. On the flip side, the Broncos have a dismal 1-4 ATS record in the past five insisde the division. The Chargers have an odd 9-2-5 ATS mark in their past 16 trips to Denver, and the road team is 15-5-2 ATS in the past 22 meetings in this series.

-- The Raiders and Chiefs get together, with Kansas City already a double-digit favorite in this one. Oakland has managed a 3-9 ATS mark in the past 12 on the road, while the Chiefs are 19-7 ATS in the past 26 inside the AFC West. The Raiders have failed to cover in five of their past six trips to Arrowhead, while going 2-5 ATS in the past seven meetings overall. The favorite has connected in 10 of the past 14 meetings in this series. The under is 17-5 in the past 22 meetings in Kansas City, too.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-27-2019, 08:32 AM

NFL Week 13 opening odds and early action: Bills draw sharp play for Thanksgiving battle vs Cowboys
Patrick Everson

Frank Gore has helped Buffalo post an 8-3 SU mark (7-3-1 ATS) heading into a Thanksgiving Day game at Dallas. The Bills opened as 7.5-point underdogs and drew early cash, moving the line to +7.

Week 13 of the NFL season includes a Thanksgiving Day feast of three games, along with an intriguing Sunday/Monday menu. We check in on the opening odds and early action, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)

Somewhat under the radar, Buffalo heads into this Turkey Day contest with an 8-3 SU mark and a more-than-respectable 7-3-1 ATS record, as well. The Bills had little trouble with Denver in Week 12, winning 20-3 as 3.5-point home favorites.

Meanwhile, Dallas dropped two of its last three games, though it still leads a very weak NFC East at 6-5 SU (7-4 ATS). In Week 12, the Cowboys faced a stern test in the rain at New England, losing 13-9 but cashing as 5.5-point underdogs.

“We opened Cowboys -7.5 and took some respected money on the Bills, and lowered it to -7,” Murray said. “I see a lot of Cowboys-to-Saints parlays in our future.”

The Saints-Falcons game is the Thanksgiving nightcap, following the Bills-Cowboys clash.

San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens (-4.5)

Baltimore still has Week 12 work to do, playing Monday night at the Los Angeles Rams, but John Harbaugh’s squad is arguably the hottest in the league. The Ravens (8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS) are on runs of 6-0 SU and 4-0 ATS, including a 41-7 bashing of Houston as 4-point faves in Week 11.

San Francisco continues to impress, tied with New England for the best record in the NFL at 10-1 SU (6-4-1 ATS). On Sunday night, the 49ers hosted a Green Bay squad that was a very public ‘dog, but San Fran rumbled to a 37-8 victory laying 3 points at home.

“We opened Ravens -4.5, but took it off the board when the Packers-49ers game kicked off,” Murray said as the Sunday night game was in progress. “No betting action to report here, but we could see an adjustment in this number depending on how the Sunday and Monday night games turn out.”

The SuperBook’s standard operating procedure is to take the following week’s game off the board when a team is in the Sunday or Monday nighter. That means this line will go back up Monday morning, then come down again Monday night during the Ravens-Rams tilt.

New England Patriots at Houston Texans (+3.5)

Following its lone loss of the season, at Baltimore, New England scored a combined 30 points in its next two games – and won them both. In Week 12 at home against Dallas, the Patriots (10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS) mustered just one touchdown and two field goals in a 13-9 victory giving 5.5 points.

Houston won three of its last four SU – while going 1-3 ATS – and is atop the AFC South at 7-4 SU (5-6 ATS). The Texans took sole possession of first with a 20-17 home win over Indianapolis giving 3.5 points in the Week 12 Thursday nighter.

“The public will come in heavy on the Patriots in this spot, and the books will need Houston huge by kickoff,” Murray said. “New England’s offense is really struggling the last few weeks, to put it nicely.”

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-10)

Oakland saw its three-game winning streak end in embarrassing fashion in Week 12. The Raiders (6-5 SU and ATS) went off as 3.5-point favorites at the New York Jets and got boatraced 34-3, with Oakland’s lone score coming on the first possession of the game.

Meanwhile, Kansas City is coming off its bye week, giving Patrick Mahomes some time to better heal up from a nagging ankle injury. In Week 11, Mahomes and the Chiefs (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) held off the Los Angeles Chargers 24-17 as 5.5-point road favorites.

“This number bumped up a point-and-a-half off our look-ahead number, due to the Raiders’ loss on the road against the Jets,” Murray said. “The Chiefs are a team to keep an eye down the stretch, if they can get healthy.”

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-27-2019, 08:33 AM

Hot & Not Report - Week 13
Matt Blunt

Week of November 25th

Last week's piece focused on two NFC divisions and the results they've had in non-division games the past few weeks, and in Week 12 action there were some mixed results.

NFC West teams continued to dominate non-division foes, as both Seattle and San Francisco were able to cover short numbers with relative ease. Seattle continued to shoot themselves in the foot to allow the Eagles to hang around, but thankfully for Seattle backers/fans, Philly has Dorian Gray at QB, and after Sunday's awful performance from Wentz, more and more people are starting to see all the ugliness Wentz has in his game that I touched on weeks ago in that piece.

San Francisco rolled over the Packers on SNF as it was a beat down from start to finish for the 49ers. Jimmy Garoppolo could be in the midst of his “lightning in a bottle” season like the only other past FCS QB's to be drafted in the last 10+ years have experienced (Wentz in 2017, Joe Flacco in January 2013), but it's this San Francisco defense that's the key to the 49ers success. When you've got the type of game wreckers they do in the front seven, most opponents are going to buckle when the 49ers are on their game.

We've got the Rams still pending in this scenario tonight as they host a red hot Baltimore team, and based on early action reports – Baltimore's getting bet at about a 70% clip currently – the oddsmakers would prefer to see LA get across the finish line as well.

Over on the “Not” side of things from last week, the NFC East teams in non-division action this past week ended up going 3-1 ATS, with everyone but the aforementioned Philadelphia Eagles getting an ATS win. Only the Washington Redskins were lucky enough to get a SU win though, as both Dallas and the NY Giants kept things close enough in low-scoring road defeats.

This week we've got a continuation of last week's angle of sorts, as we begin with teams from an AFC division and their recent non-division results, as well as a different take that's been going well. You put the two of them together for Week 13 and the entire betting board in the NFL is basically covered, so I'll even lay out all the teams you should be looking at for Week 13 and we can come back a week from now and see if these runs hold up.

Who's Hot

AFC East teams are 14-6-1 ATS in non-division games since October 1st

This trend wasn't stellar in Week 12 as it was a 2-2 ATS record for the likes of New England, Buffalo, NY Jets, and Miami, but overall, when these teams venture outside of the division, you generally want to be looking their way. All four of them have winning ATS records in non-division play since the beginning of October – New England are 4-2 ATS, Buffalo are 3-1-1 ATS, the NY Jets are 4-2 ATS, and Miami are 3-1 ATS – and about a handful of those ATS victories for the three teams not named “New England” have come as outright wins as underdogs as well.

I mean, look at this Jets team right now who have put up 34 points in three straight weeks, winning all three of those games by double digits, and closing as an underdog in all of them. QB Sam Darnold is probably feeling like himself again after his Mono issue earlier this year, as this offense that had many new faces show up this year is starting to play like a cohesive unit. Three straight SU and ATS wins as underdogs will start to bring attention in the betting market, and with a trip to Cincinnati on deck for the Jets this week, this run of New York catching points will end. We will have to see if the Jets – laying 3.5 points vs Cincinnati - can continue their strong play as favorites now, a role New York is 0-2 SU and ATS in this year, although both of those did come within AFC East division play.

The rest of this division is out playing non-conference foes in Week 13 as well, as early numbers have Buffalo (+7) in Dallas on Thanksgiving, Miami (+8.5) hosting Philadelphia, and New England (-3.5) at Houston on SNF. All three of these games have some interesting dynamics to them and you should find more support for any plays you do make, but Buffalo and Miami catching those points against Dallas and Philadelphia do look awfully attractive.

New England's got to deal with a Texans team that's had extended rest and hasn't had to travel, which makes backing the Patriots a little trickier, especially when the chances are they'll be a side the oddsmakers would prefer to see lose again.

But put all four plays in as early leans right now – NY Jets (-3.5), Buffalo (+7), Miami (+8.5) and New England (-3.5) and let's go on to build out the rest of this card with...

Who's Not

Fading teams that put up 30 or more points in their last outing – 5-12 ATS last three weeks, and 2-9 ATS past two weeks

I'll start with the pending game as that is tonight's MNF game between the Ravens and Rams. It's the Ravens who are coming off a 30+ point performance in their last outing, and that's going directly up against that run for NFC West teams in non-division play, so that's why it's so important to find further support for what side you decide to back. Tonight's game is a pass for me (at least with the side) as those conflicting runs suggest it will be a close game that could easily land on either side of the current number (Baltimore -3.5).

But a 9-2 ATS record for teams coming off a 30-point effort suggests that the offenses that achieve that production really go out and have a great week of practice afterwards, and build upon that momentum. These teams are 8-3 SU in those 11 games, so taking the points where you can may be better option. And going into Week 13 there are plenty of teams that qualify in this role.

Astute readers will know that the NY Jets (-3.5) fit both of these Hot/Not scenarios, and laying points with them against Cincinnati is something that does seem easy to get behind. So that's another piece of supporting evidence for Jets backers this week, although they've still got that nasty hook lying there. The number won't go down so buying off that hook may be the best option now, or just bypass the spread all together and take NY on the ML and go from there.

The list of the other teams you should be playing on in Week 13 based on them putting up 30+ in their last effort are: Tampa Bay (+1) at Jacksonville, Cleveland (-1) at Pittsburgh, New Orleans (-6.5) at Atlanta on Thursday, Carolina (-10) vs Washington, Tennessee (+3) at Indianapolis, and San Francisco (+4.5) at Baltimore – pending Baltimore doesn't land here themselves with 30+ on MNF.

That's already a lot of the board covered, but the majority of the teams listed here are on the road. That isn't exactly ideal, but it's how it goes and if your own handicapping throughout the week has you landing on a few of these teams, it's probably a good decision to fire.

In the end, these two situations have most of the Week 13 NFL board covered, with none of them conflicting. And as I said at the top, we can see how these plays end up in the coming week. They are:

Buffalo (+7)
New Orleans (-6.5)
Miami (+8.5)
NY Jets (-3.5)
Tennessee (+3)
Cleveland (-1)
Carolina (-10)
San Francisco (+4.5) – pending Baltimore's result
Tampa Bay (+1)
New England (-3.5)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-27-2019, 08:34 AM

305CHICAGO -306 DETROIT
DETROIT is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the current season.

307BUFFALO -308 DALLAS
BUFFALO is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road games after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992.

309NEW ORLEANS -310 ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after an upset loss in the last 2 seasons.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-27-2019, 08:34 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 13

Thursday, November 28

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CHICAGO (5 - 6) at DETROIT (3 - 7 - 1) - 11/28/2019, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 146-184 ATS (-56.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 45-67 ATS (-28.7 Units) in November games since 1992.
DETROIT is 41-62 ATS (-27.2 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (8 - 3) at DALLAS (6 - 5) - 11/28/2019, 4:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (9 - 2) at ATLANTA (3 - 8) - 11/28/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
ATLANTA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-27-2019, 08:35 AM

NFL

Week 13

Trend Report

Thursday, November 28

Detroit Lions
Detroit is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Detroit is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games
Detroit is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Detroit is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
Detroit is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
Detroit is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing Chicago
Detroit is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Chicago
Detroit is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago

Chicago Bears
Chicago is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Chicago is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games on the road
Chicago is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
Chicago is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 8 games when playing Detroit
Chicago is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Chicago is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit

Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Dallas is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games
Dallas is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Dallas's last 13 games at home
Dallas is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Buffalo

Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games
Buffalo is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 11 games
Buffalo is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games on the road
Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing Dallas
Buffalo is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Buffalo is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas

Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games
Atlanta is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 10 games when playing at home against New Orleans

New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
New Orleans is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New Orleans's last 12 games on the road
New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Orleans's last 10 games when playing on the road against Atlanta

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-27-2019, 08:36 AM

NFL

Week 13

Bears (5-6) @ Lions (3-7-1)— Chicago is 5-0 when they allow 15 or fewer points, 0-6 when they allow more than 15; Bears lost five of last seven games, are 2-2 SU in true road games. Under Nagy, Chicago is 4-4 ATS as a road favorite, 1-1 TY. Bears’ last five games went under total. Detroit lost its last four games, none by more than 8 points; they’re 2-3 SU at home- since 2011, Lions are 7-16-1 ATS as a home underdog, 2-2 TY. Detroit scored 16+ points in nine of 11 games TY. Lions (+6.5) lost 20-13 in Chicago three weeks ago, despite outgaining Bears 357-226; Chicago won last three series games, by 7-12-7 points- their win here LY snapped a 5-game losing streak at Ford Field. Favorites are 4-0-1 ATS in last five series games.

Bills (8-3) @ Cowboys (6-5)— Buffalo is 7-0 when it scores 17+ points, 1-3 when they don’t; Bills won four of five road road games, with lone loss 19-16 (+3) in Cleveland. Under McDermott, Bills are 9-6-2 ATS as a road underdog, 2-0-1 TY. Three of their last four games went under. Dallas didn’t score TD in rain in Foxboro LW, after scoring 14 TD’s on 41 drives in previous four games. Cowboys are 0-4 TY vs teams with winning record; they’re 3-2 SU at home, 6-4-1 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite, 3-2 TY. Five of their last seven games went over. Dallas won three of last four series games, winning 44-7/10-6 in last two played here (last one in ’11). NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 3-6 ATS this season; AFC East road dogs are 4-4-1.

Saints (9-2) @ Falcons (3-8)— Atlanta (+13.5) stunned their rivals 26-9 in Superdome three weeks ago, sacking Brees six times; not often Saints play a game without scoring a TD- that was Saints’ only loss in last nine games. NO won its last four road games; they’re 9-3 ATS in ;last dozen games as a road favorite, 1-0 TY. Three of their last four road games went over. Atlanta laid an egg at home LW, after they had won couple in row; Falcons lost their last four home games- they’re 10-3 ATS in last 13 games as a home underdog, 2-1 TY. Four of their last five games stayed under the total. Falcons are 6-5 in last 11 series games; Teams split last eight series games played here. Underdogs are 7-3 ATS in last 10 series games.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-27-2019, 08:37 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 13

Thursday, November 28

Chicago @ Detroit

Game 305-306
November 28, 2019 @ 12:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
129.072
Detroit
124.302
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 5
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 2 1/2
39
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(-2 1/2); Under

Buffalo @ Dallas

Game 307-308
November 28, 2019 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
129.046
Dallas
137.337
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 8 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 6 1/2
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-6 1/2); Under

New Orleans @ Atlanta

Game 309-310
November 28, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
133.985
Atlanta
130.325
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 3 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 7
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+7); Over

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-27-2019, 08:38 AM

Thanksgiving Day Trends

The annual NFL Thanksgiving Day slate has arrived and this year’s three-game card will feature a pair of rematches from the 2018 holiday card.

Detroit and Dallas will once again be hosts as they welcome Chicago and Buffalo respectively. In the primetime game, Atlanta and New Orleans will go head-to-head in a divisional clash.

Be sure to check out the latest sports betting trends for all three Thanksgiving Day matchups and the past history.

Trends for Detroit-Chicago

-- After winning four straight games on the holiday from 2013 to 2016, the Lions have dropped their last two games on Thanksgiving Day.

-- Prior to the 4-0 run, the Lions had lost nine straight games on Thanksgiving between 2004 and 2012.

-- Detroit has seen the 'over' go 9-4 in its last 13 games played on Thanksgiving Day.

-- This will be the 10th meeting between Chicago and Detroit on the holiday and it will also be a rematch from last year's Thanksgiving Day matchup.

-- The Lions own a 5-4 record in the first nine holiday encounters.

-- Chicago captured a 23-16 win over Detroit last season, covering as a three-point road favorite while the 'under' (42.5) also connected. In 2014, Detroit doubled-up Chicago with a 34-17 victory.

-- The Bears have gone 4-7 all-time in the Thanksgiving Day afternoon matchups, which includes a 4-5 record versus the Lions and 0-2 against the Cowboys.
Trends for Dallas-Buffalo
-- Dallas owns an all-time 31-19-1 record on Thanksgiving Day.

-- The Cowboys defeated Washington 31-23 last season on the holiday, covering as a seven-point favorite. The 'over' (40) cashed as the pair exploded with 37 points in the second-half.

-- Prior to that win, Dallas had dropped three of its last four games on the holiday and the only wins in the last five years on Thanksgiving have both come against Washington. All three of the losses came by double digits.

-- Dallas has allowed 29.3 points per game in its last seven holiday matchups.

-- Buffalo owns a 0-2 all-time record on the holiday, its last appearance coming in the 1994 season. Both games were against the Lions and the Bills were blown out in each contest (35-21, 27-14).

Thanksgiving History - Detroit
Year Matchup
2018 Chicago 23 Detroit 16
2017 Minnesota 30 Detroit 23
2016 Detroit 16 Minnesota 13
2015 Detroit 45 Philadelphia 14
2014 Detroit 34 Chicago 17
2013 Detroit 40 Green Bay 10
2012 Houston 34 Detroit 31 (OT)
2011 Green Bay 27 Detroit 15
2010 New England 45 Detroit 24
2009 Green Bay 34 Detroit 12
2008 Tennessee 47 Detroit 10
2007 Green Bay 37 Detroit 26
2006 Miami 27 Detroit 10
2005 Atlanta 27 Detroit 7
2004 Indianapolis 41 Detroit 9
2003 Detroit 22 Green Bay 14
2002 New England 20 Detroit 12
2001 Green Bay 29 Detroit 27
2000 Detroit 34 New England 9
1999 Detroit 21 Chicago 17
1998 Detroit 19 Pittsburgh 16 (OT)
1997 Detroit 55 Chicago 20
1996 Kansas City 28 Detroit 24
1995 Detroit 44 Minnesota 38
1994 Detroit 35 Buffalo 21
1993 Chicago 10 Detroit 6
1992 Houston 24 Detroit 21
1991 Detroit 16 Chicago 6
1990 Detroit 40 Denver 27
1989 Detroit 13 Cleveland 10
1988 Minnesota 23 Detroit 0
1987 Kansas City 27 Detroit 20
1986 Green Bay 44 Detroit 40
1985 Detroit 31 N.Y. Jets 20
1984 Detroit 31 Green Bay 28
1983 Detroit 45 Pittsburgh 3
1982 N.Y. Giants 13 Detroit 6
1981 Detroit 27 Kansas City 10
1980 Chicago 23 Detroit 17 (OT)
1979 Detroit 20 Chicago 0
1978 Detroit 17 Denver 14
1977 Chicago 31 Detroit 14
1976 Detroit 27 Buffalo 14
1975 L.A. 20 Detroit 0
1974 Denver 31 Detroit 27
1973 Washington 20 Detroit 0
1972 Detroit 37 N.Y. Jets 20
1971 Detroit 32 Kansas City 21
1970 Detroit 28 Oakland 14
1969 Minnesota 27 Detroit 0
1968 Philadelphia 12 Detroit 0
1967 L.A. Rams 31 Detroit 7

Thanksgiving History - Dallas
Year Matchup
2018 Dallas 31 Washingon 23
2017 L.A. Chargers 28 Dallas 6
2016 Dallas 31 Washington 26
2015 Carolina 33 Dallas 14
2014 Philadelphia 33 Dallas 10
2013 Dallas 31 Oakland 24
2012 Dallas 31 Washington 38
2011 Dallas 20 Miami 19
2010 New Orleans 30 Dallas 27
2009 Dallas 24 Oakland 7
2008 Dallas 34 Seattle 9
2007 Dallas 34 N.Y. Jets 3
2006 Dallas 38 Tampa Bay 10
2005 Denver 24 Dallas 21 (OT)
2004 Dallas 21 Chicago 7
2003 Miami 40 Dallas 21
2002 Dallas 27 Washington 20
2001 Denver 26 Dallas 24
2000 Minnesota 27 Dallas 15
1999 Dallas 20 Miami 0
1998 Minnesota 46 Dallas 36
1997 Tennessee 27 Dallas 14
1996 Dallas 21 Washington 10
1995 Dallas 24 Kansas City 12
1994 Dallas 42 Green Bay 31
1993 Miami 16 Dallas 14
1992 Dallas 30 N.Y. Giants 3
1991 Dallas 20 Pittsburgh 10
1990 Dallas 27 Washington 17
1989 Philadelphia 27 Dallas 0
1988 Houston 25 Dallas 17
1987 Minnesota 44 Dallas 38 (OT)
1986 Seattle 31 Dallas 14
1985 Dallas 35 St. Louis 17
1984 Dallas 20 New England 17
1983 Dallas 35 St. Louis 17
1982 Dallas 31 Cleveland 14
1981 Dallas 10 Chicago 9
1980 Dallas 51 Seattle 7
1979 Houston 30 Dallas 24
1978 Dallas 37 Washington 10
1976 Dallas 19 St. Louis 14
1974 Dallas 24 Washington 23
1973 Miami 14 Dallas 7
1972 San Francisco 31 Dallas 10
1971 Dallas 28 Los Angeles 21
1970 Dallas 16 Green Bay 3
1969 Dallas 24 San Francisco 24
1968 Dallas 29 Washington 20
1967 Dallas 46 St. Louis 21

Trends for New Orleans-Atlanta

-- This will be the 14th season that the NFL will have a night game on Thanksgiving Day. The primetime game began in 2006.

-- Home teams have gone 9-4 straight up during this span.

-- Favorites own a 11-2 straight up and 10-3 against the spread record.

-- Ten of the 13 outcomes have been decided by double digits.

-- The 'under' has gone 9-4 during this span.

-- New Orleans defeated Atlanta 31-17 last season from the Superdome as favorites (-12.5) while the 'under' (61.5) was never in doubt.

-- The Falcons have played in the Thanksgiving night game twice and they're 0-2, both losses coming by double digits.

Thanksgiving History - Night Game (2006-2018)
Year Matchup
2018 New Orleans Saints 31 vs. Atlanta Falcons 17
2017 Washington Redskins 20 vs. New York Giants 10
2016 Pittsburgh Steelers 28 at Indianapolis Colts 7
2015 Chicago Bears 17 at Green Bay Packers 13
2014 Seattle Seahawks 19 at San Francisco 49ers 3
2013 Baltimore Ravens 22 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers 20
2012 New England Patriots 49 at New York Jets 19
2011 Baltimore Ravens 16 vs. San Francisco 49ers 6
2010 New York Jets 26 vs. Cincinnati Bengals 10
2009 Denver Broncos 26 vs. New York Giants 6
2008 Philadelphia Eagles 48 vs. Arizona Cardinals 20
2007 Indianapolis Colts 31 at Atlanta Falcons 13
2006 Kansas City Chiefs 19 vs. Denver Broncos 10

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-27-2019, 08:39 AM

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 13 odds: It's time to take the Titans
Jason Logan

If you’re sold on the Titans and their sudden offensive surge, you may want to get down on Tennessee +3 before a move under the field goal. The Titans have posted an average of more than 29 points over their last five games.

Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team but betting the best number.

Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL Week 13 board.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: TENNESSEE TITANS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3, 43.5)

The Titans opened as 3.5-point underdogs on the road in Indianapolis for Week 13 and money on Tennessee has cut that half point hook off the visitor. And it may not stop there. The juice on Colts -3 has been discounted, as books are panning for action on the home side.

If you’re sold on the Titans and their sudden offensive surge, you may want to get down on Tennessee +3 before a move under the field goal. The Titans have posted an average of more than 29 points over their last five games and have totaled 77 points in the last two games. To put that turnaround into perspective, Tennessee totalled only 98 points in the first six weeks of the schedule (43 of those coming in Week 1).

Indianapolis has a mini bye to prep for this AFC South showdown but is coming off a crushing loss to Houston last Thursday – a defeat that could spoil their postseason chances at the end of the year. The Colts offense has struggled to produce this month and faces a Titans defense ranked 10th in points against at 19.7 points per outing.

SPREAD TO BET LATER: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT MIAMI DOLPHINS (+8.5, 46)

It didn’t take long for the betting public to sour on the Dolphins’ sudden success. Miami was one of the hottest bets in football entering Week 11, covering the spread in five straight before losing SU and ATS to Buffalo. Even with that blip, the public was still playing the points with the Fins in Sunday’s date in Cleveland.

The Browns destroyed Miami and that set the table for this spread, which opened at Eagles -8 and has jumped as high as -9. If you’re seeking for value on the Dolphins at home in Week 13, push pause on your betting and see if this one sneaks to +9.5 or even +10 by kickoff.

Philadelphia is desperate for a victory after losing at home to Seattle. If the Eagles are to catch the Cowboys in the NFC East, that climb begins this Sunday. Philly, however, has sputtered with the football, scoring just 13.7 points per game over its last three outings and asking this offense to cover this large a spread may be too much.

TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 46 GREEN BAY PACKERS AT NEW YORK GIANTS

The Packers come to East Rutherford licking their wounds after a rough outing in San Francisco Sunday night, scoring only eight points in a one-sided loss to the Niners. Green Bay hasn’t looked sharp with the football the past three games, averaging just over two touchdowns per contest in that span. The Cheeseheads will focus on stopping the football heading into Week 13 after this defense was rolled for 37 points by San Francisco.

New York isn’t exactly setting the scoreboard on fire either, managing only 14 points in Chicago this past weekend. The Giants defense is also lacking but gets to come home after two straight road games, and the extended forecast for East Rutherford is calling for cold and rain which could make moving the football a little more challenging for both teams.

This Over/Under opened 46.5 and has dropped to 46. If you like the Under in this matchup, it may be best to play it now before action on a lower-scoring finish drives this number down further.

TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 44.5 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT HOUSTON TEXANS

If the Patriots are going to win this one, it will be on the shoulders of their stop unit. The New England defense is tops in the NFL and – outside of getting crushed by Baltimore with 37 points – has checked each of its last four opponents to less than two touchdowns against.

The Patriots offense continues to get stuck in the mud and may not be able to keep up if this game turns into a shootout versus a high-powered Houston passing attack. With the public expected to be playing the Pats, I see this total ticking downward a touch before the weekend.

If you like the Over in this game, wait it out and see if this goes to 44 or 43.5. As mentioned, the Texans have a high-flying attack and this game will be played on the clean indoor track inside NRG Stadium. This is the first time Brady & Co. will play inside all season, so they could find another gear in Houston Sunday night.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-27-2019, 08:39 AM

Best spot bets for the NFL Week 13 odds: Jets could hit 'letdown' turbulence in Cincy
Jason Logan

New York is 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS as a visitor this season and going back to 2015, Gang Green is a dismal 12-21-3 ATS on the road. The Jets are 3.5-point road chalk at Cincinnati in Week 13.

As the schedule shrinks, the pressure mounts for those teams playing for the postseason. On the flip side, Thanksgiving can be the tipping point for those on the outside looking in and motivation – or lack thereof - is a factor in the final weeks.

That makes squeezing every bit of edge you can get from the schedule that much more important. We’re talking about situational handicapping: lookaheads, letdowns and tough schedule spots.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan digs into the Week 13 slate and gives his favorite spot bets.

LETDOWN SPOT: NEW YORK JETS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (+3.5, 41)

The J-E-T-S are soaring on a three-game winning streak after an upset over Oakland at home in Week 12. New York last won three in a row back in 2017 (Weeks 3-5) and while these recent victories include cupcakes like the Giants and Redskins, Sunday’s 34-3 squash of the Raiders has hopes sky high in the Big Apple.

But what goes up, must come down. And it’s tough to stay that high when you’re facing a winless Cincinnati Bengals team on the road during Thanksgiving Week. The Bengals are bad but haven’t been “that” bad the past two games, covering in a 17-10 loss at Oakland and – depending on where you got Cincy +6.5 to +5.5 – keeping competitive in a 16-10 loss to Pittsburgh Sunday.

The Jets offense, which has hung a trio of 34-point scores on the board during this streak, averages only 17.4 points per road stop. New York is 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS as a visitor this season and going back to 2015, Gang Green is a dismal 12-21-3 ATS on the road.

LOOKAHEAD SPOT: OAKLAND RAIDERS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-10, 51.5)

Sunday’s divisional dance with the Raiders is an important game to the Chiefs, who are trying to fend off Oakland in the AFC West. But, as the 10-point spread indicates, it should be an easier win for Kansas City this Sunday.

Well, that’s if the Chiefs avoid looking ahead to a big-time battle with the New England Patriots in Week 14. That’s easier said than done. Kansas City is shipping up to Boston next weekend for a revenge game against Tom Brady and the Pats, who knocked off K.C. in the AFC Championship Game with a thrilling 37-31 overtime victory at Arrowhead last January.

And while the Raiders may have been pantsed (full butt cheeks) by the Jets in Week 12, this team was riding a three-game win streak before that tough schedule spot (which we highlighted in this article last week). Sunday's spread flirted with Chiefs -9.5 before Oakland ruled out emerging WR Hunter Renfrow with a bad rib/lung injury.

SCHEDULE SPOT: GREEN BAY PACKERS AT NEW YORK GIANTS (+6.5, 45.5)

I’ll be honest: it was slim pickings for a schedule spot this week. The Thanksgiving Thursday games are always tough on teams due to the quick turnaround and distractions that come with playing on the holiday (away from family, getting tickets for everyone, postgame plans and travel).

So, we turn to the Packers, who are playing their second straight road game in Week 13 after travelling all the way to the Bay Area just to have their asses waxed by the 49ers on Sunday Night Football in Week 12. They’re now giving a near touchdown to the Giants this weekend.

Green Bay benefited from a very home-friendly slate to open the schedule – playing on the road only twice in the first seven weeks. But the Cheeseheads have hit the highway hard in the past month or so, with Sunday’s stop in East Rutherford marking their fourth road tilt in the past five outings (with a Week 11 bye thrown in there).

Thursday 11-28-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Thursday 11-28-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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