Thursday 11-28-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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NFL Betting Stats heading into Wk 13:

Road Teams: 98-74-4 ATS
Home Teams: 74-98-4 ATS

Favorites: 76-96-4 ATS
Underdogs: 96-76-4 ATS

Home Faves: 45-67-4 ATS
Home Dogs: 29-31 ATS

Road Faves: 31-29 ATS
Road Dogs: 67-45-4 ATS

O/U: 84-92

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 13
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Nov. 28

CHICAGO at DETROIT (FOX, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Lions have failed to cover last 2 on Thanksgiving, had covered previous 4, but no covers preceding nine on Turkey Day. Detroit no covers last six this season but Bears just 1-6 last seven vs. line. Bears “under” 14-3 since late 2018, and “unders” 6-2 last 8 in series.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


BUFFALO at DALLAS (CBS, 4:30 p.m. ET)
Cowboys just 1-7 last 8 as Thanksgiving host. Bills on 8-3-1 spread run last 12 since late LY, also “under” 9-4 last 11. Buffalo 6-0-2 last 8 as dog.
Tech Edge: Bills and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


NEW ORLEANS at ATLANTA (NFL, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Saints on 7-2 spread run, though one L was vs. Falcs three weeks ago. Atlanta 3-1 vs. line last 4 TY after dropping previous five vs. spread. Saints had won and covered three meetings previous to Nov. 10 clash. Falcs “under” 12-7 since mid 2018.
Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Total Talk - Thanksgiving
Joe Williams

It’s time to talk Thanksgiving totals, and we have an interesting trio of games on tap for your holiday viewing pleasure. Two of the three matchups are divisional matchups, as well as rematches, sandwiching a very intriguing AFC vs. NFC battle in the middle window. Through 58 divisional contests played in this year’s regular season, the ’under’ holds a 31-27. In the two earlier divisional matchups featuring Thursday’s combatants, the ‘under’ hit in both of the first installments.

Chicago at Detroit (FOX, 12:30 p.m. ET)

These teams met back in Week 10 at Soldier Field in Chicago with the Bears posting a 20-13 victory over Detroit. The under (38) never seemed to be threatened in that one despite the fact Chicago quarterback Mitchell Trubisky actually looked like an effective passer in that game. He tossed a season-best three touchdowns passes, easily besting QB Jeff Driskel, who is still filling in for the injured QB Matthew Stafford (back). While Trubisky threw for just 193 yards, his three touchdowns and no interceptions was easily his best ratio in that department, and his 131.0 QB rating was a season high.

The Bears enter this matchup on a 5-0 under run, as the offense continues to look rather slow and methodical, while the defense does its job more often than not. In other words, Chicago Bears football in a nutshell. Since a 25-point outburst, if you can call it that, against the Saints in Week 7, which happened to come after two weeks of studying and a bye, the Bears have posted totals of 16, 14, 20, 7 and 19. The defense was shredded for 36 in that Saints game, and that was by QB Teddy Bridgewater, by the way. Since, they have righted the ship with totals allowed of 17, 22, 13, 17 and 14. Again, Bears football.

There is no reason to believe anything will be different than the first meeting, as the Lions just cannot seem to get out of their own way. They’re coming off of a disappointing 19-16 loss at Washington last week, and many in the Twittersphere are calling for the Ford Family to pull the plug on the Matt Patricia experiment. Others are calling for boycotts of the Lions until they start winning. If that’s the case, Ford Field might be empty for a while.

The Lions had a potent passing attack under Stafford earlier in the season, going for 24 or more points in six of the first eight games, and 27 or more points on five occasions during the span. Since it was discovered Stafford had tiny fractures in his lower back. Driskel has taken over for three games and the results have not been good. While they did hoist up 27 points in a loss to Dallas in Week 11, they had the 13-point effort in Chicago and just the 16 points last week in D.C. The under is 2-1 in Driskel’s three assignments to date. It should be noted that Driskel is dealing with a hamstring injury which limited him in practice both Monday and Tuesday, although Monday’s status was just an estimation. In any event, if he cannot go it would be former Purdue signal called David Blough, engineer of the Ohio State upset last season, getting his first NFL start.

Overall Detroit has posted 378.5 total yards per game to rank ninth in the NFL, but most of that damage was down with a healthy Stafford. They’re just 18th in rushing yards per game, and 11th in points scored (23.6) and tumbling hard. Defensively they are just 29th in the league with 396.2 total yards per game allowed while yielding 275.5 passing yards per contest. They’re also 24th in rushing yards per game yielded at 120.7.

The under is a perfect 6-0 in Chicago’s past six inside the division, and 13-3 in the past 16 games overall. That includes a 5-2 mark in the past seven on the road, too. For Detroit, the over has hit in four straight at home, but the under is 5-1 in the past six inside the NFC North. The under has connected in six of the past eight meetings in this series, too.

This total opened 41 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and it's down to 38 as of Wednesday morning with one-sided action on the under.

Buffalo at Dallas (CBS, 4:30 p.m. ET)

The total for this game opened 45 and held steady before slipping ever so briefly to 44.5, but then it rose back to 45.5 and 46. You can likely continue to expect some fluctuation based upon the low-scoring total the Cowboys posted last week in New England, and based upon sensible bettors understanding Dallas was facing the No. 1 defense in the NFL in the rain and slop, and not to discard their offense too much. Statistically and records-wise, this should be the best matchup of the holiday.

The Bills hit the under in each of their first five games this season, and were actually the last NFL team to see an over result cash in 2019. While the over is 3-3 across the past six games for Buffalo since that 5-0 under run, keep in mind that two of their games came against the defensively-challenged Miami Dolphins, as Buffalo averaged 34.0 PPG in those two contests. Take the two Dolphins games out of the equation and the under is 8-1 for Buffalo in 2019.

The Cowboys haven’t beaten a team above .500 all season, going 0-4 straight up and 1-3 against the spread while splitting the over/under in four outings against winning sides. Meanwhile, the Bills have relished the opportunity to go on the road, going 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS while the under has produced a 4-1 mark. Again, the outlier here was a Nov. 17 trip to Miami where they dropped a season-high 37. In their other four roadies the Bills mustered 17, 28, 14 and 16. While coughing up 16, 14, 7 and 19.

Buffalo’s defense has had it on lockdown all season, ranking third in the NFL in total yards allowed (288.6), passing yards allowed (184.3) and points allowed (15.7). Offensively they have managed to rank a very middling 18th in total yards (352.7) on offense, while posting just 213.5 yards per game through the air to rank 24th. In three games against the NFC East the Bills are averaging 21.7 PPG while yielding 18.0 PPG.

Despite a nary nine points last week in the muck at Foxboro, the Cowboys still rank No. 1 in total yards per game (433.4) on offense and No. 1 in passing yards (303.5). They’re also sixth in the league with 26.8 PPG. Defensively they rank seventh with 19.1 PPG allowed. At home, the Pokes have posted 35, 31, 24, 37 and 24, so the Bills defense likely will have its hands full. Defensively, Dallas is allowed 17, 6, 24, 10 and 28 in five home games, a huge array.

For what it’s worth, the last time these teams met it was a 16-6 Dallas victory back on Dec. 27, 2015. Another note, the Cowboys have scored 31 points in their last four wins on Thanksgiving Day but just 6, 14 and 10 points in their losses. The Team Total on the Cowboys for tomorrow is hovering between 26 and 27.

New Orleans at Atlanta (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The oddsmakers are expecting this game to be the highest-scoring battle on the three-game Thanksgiving slate. Of course, they expected that in the first game, too, and the Saints laid an absolute egg. Back in Week 10 the Falcons won outright as 14-point underdogs, shocking New Orleans in a 26-9 stunner. The nine points tied a season low for NOLA, and it marked just the second time the Saints high-octane offense was held out of the end zone this season, and first time with QB Drew Brees under center for an entire game (he left the Week 2 game at L.A. Rams early due to injury).

For the 14th season the NFL features a night game on Thanksgiving Day (can you believe it’s been that long?) and the under has connected in each of the past five seasons, with the low side 9-4 overall. Last season’s Thanksgiving Day game featured a total of 61.5, but these teams never threatened that in a 31-17 win by the Saints under the protection of their dome in the Big Easy.

The loss to the Falcons in Week 10 seems to have served as a wake-up call for the Saints, as they have hit 34 points on offense in each of their past two outings, a pair of ‘over’ results inside the division at Tampa Bay and home to Carolina in a game the Saints probably should have lost 34-31 if the Panthers had a reliable kicker. The over is 3-1 in the four divisional games so far for the Saints, and 3-1 in their past four games on the road, too. The Saints have posted 33, 13, 36 and 34 in their past four away from home.

Atlanta has been a Jekyll & Hyde team, and those type of teams are maddening to bettors. They allowed 28, 20, 27, 24, 53, 34, 37 and 27 through their first eight games. So, naturally, everyone expected the Saints to steamroll them with a cornucopia of offense, but they allowed just nine points on the road. Then, the Falcons topped by stuffing Christian McCaffrey and the Panthers in a 29-3 drumming in Charlotte. Naturally, they’d keep it up at home against turnover-prone Jameis Winston and the Bucs last week. Nah, they were trucked for 35. Who will show up this week?

The total is hovering around 48.5 and 49 points as of Wednesday, depending on the shop, and that’s a little less than the first meeting. That’s likely based on the trends of these teams lately, as well as in this season. The under is 7-0-1 in the past eight appearances for New Orleans on a Thursday, and 9-2 in their past 11 against teams with an overall losing record. The under is 4-1 in Atlanta’s past five, and 3-1-1 in their past five Thursday showings. The under is also 4-1 in the past five meetings, and 7-3 in the past 10 battles between the Georgia Dome and the Mercedes-Benz Dome in downtown Atlanta.

We've see the under go 7-5 in the night spot on Thursday's this season and that includes a 5-2 mark to the low side in divisional games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

by: Josh Inglis


COWBOYS VS. THE MAFIA

The Buffalo Bills have faced one team with a winning record this year. Playing the likes of Miami, the New Yorks and Washington hasn’t done them any favors in the power rankings. This Thanksgiving, Josh Allen and boys in blue will head down to Jerry’s World and take on the 6-5 Cowboys.

Dallas loves the play action and sits ninth in the league in PA plays at 27 percent and is getting nine yards per play-action call. The Bills will be up to the challenge as they have the league’s third-best play-action defense. Dallas has played three Top-10 play-action defenses and lost each of those games (Saints, Jets, and Patriots) while not hitting their team total in all three.

Only one team has scored more than 26 points against the Bills this year and Buffalo ranks third in total yards allowed on the road at just over 300. We are taking the Cowboys’ team total Under 26.5, and with the Over currently at -135 that total might slip higher towards game day.


TOOTING TRUBISKY

Do you want to be the talk of Thanksgiving dinner? It all starts with you telling everyone that Mitch Trubisky is a great quarterback all day leading up to the Bears and Lions kickoff at 12:30 pm ET. We all know that Mitchell is a below-average signal caller, but with his career stats versus the Lions, you could look like a genius by tooting the Trubisky horn.

“Mediocre Mitch” has six touchdowns and zero interceptions over his last two games versus the Lions and has averaged 255 yards passing in his four starts against Detroit. That should help his confidence, but also the fact that Matt Patricia’s defense is allowing more passing yards at home than any other team in the league also helps the cause.

Hitting the Over 228.5 Trubisky passing yards prop will get you credibility for the remainder of the football day – and maybe right into Christmas. If you’re really greedy (and deep down, we all are), the Over 1.5 TDs has value at +120.


EASY BREESY

We were tricked about the Atlanta Falcons defense over Weeks 10 and 11. Even though it allowed just 12 points in two games and zero TDs in 10 quarters, Atlanta still gave up 612 yards passing and 63 completions which would put it in dead-last in both of those categories. Jameis Winston and the Bucs proved those two games were anomalies as Tampa Bay passed for 313 yards and put up 35 points.

Drew Brees has averaged 296 passing yards and 31 completions against three Bottom-10 DVOA pass defenses over the last four weeks. We are getting on the Over on Brees’ 26.5 completions - a number he has topped in every game he has finished this year.


ZEKE AND DESTROY

The Bills are 24th in rushing TDs allowed per game this year as they sit 26th in DVOA rush defense. Ezekiel Elliot has just one rushing touchdown in his last four games, so Zeke is due to cross the plane especially with an offensive game plan that should feature the run.

Last year on Thanksgiving, Elliott rushed for 121 yards and scored twice - one rushing and one receiving. He missed the 2017 Thanksgiving Day game but scored four TDs in 2016 - two rushing and two receiving.

We’re putting our money on the Thanksgiving Day money-maker and taking the Over 0.5 Elliott rushing TDs at -104.


TURKEY TIME 6-POINT TEASER

We hit our prime-time six-point teaser last week for +160 and keep things rolling with our holiday version of the three-team, six-point teaser for +160, as well.

Chicago (+3) will face either Jeff Driskel and his injured hamstring or … David Blough. The Bears already have a victory over the Lions in November while the Lions haven’t won by more than four points all year.

Buffalo (+12.5) has had an easy schedule to date with their two most difficult matchups both losses. But QB Josh Allen has traveled well and has his team 4-1 on the road this year with the only blemish a 16-13 loss in Cleveland. It’s tough to get up two TDs versus the Bills’ Top-5 pass defense.

New Orleans (-0.5) has over 1,000 yards of offense over its last three games and will face the Falcons without their No.1 TE and possibly their No.1 WR in Julio Jones. The Falcons were slapped back to reality after getting spanked 35-22 by the Bucs and proving that this is a Bottom-5 defense.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thursday's Tip Sheet
Kevin Rogers

Bears (-3, 39) at Lions – 12:30 PM EST

These two struggling NFC North squads kick off Week 13 at Ford Field and play on Thanksgiving for the second straight season. Chicago (5-6 SU, 3-8 ATS) won for the second time in three weeks after holding off the Giants at Soldier Field, 19-14 on Sunday. The Bears failed to cover as six-point favorites as New York scored a late touchdown to get within the number, but Chicago posted 16 third quarter points to erase a 7-3 halftime deficit.

The Bears won in spite of rushing for 65 yards on 26 carries and quarterback Mitchell Trubisky getting intercepted twice. Chicago dropped to 1-6 ATS the last seven games, but the only positive note for the Bears is they have allowed 17 points or less in three consecutive contests, while hitting the UNDER in five straight games. However, the Bears have not won a game away from Soldier Field since a Week 3 blowout of the Redskins, 31-15 as five-point favorites.

The Lions (3-7-1 SU, 4-7 ATS) remain at the bottom of the NFC North after losing their fourth consecutive game in Sunday’s 19-16 setback to the Redskins. Washington picked up only its second win of the season in spite of not scoring an offensive touchdown as the Lions held the Redskins to four field goals and a kickoff return for a score. However, quarterback Jeff Driskel was intercepted three times and Detroit managed to lose even though it rushed for 175 yards.

Detroit lost its fourth straight road game and slipped to 0-3 ATS this season when listed as a favorite. The last time the Lions covered a game came in the Week 6 Monday night setback at Green Bay, 23-22 as 3 ½-point underdogs, as Detroit is riding an 0-6 ATS stretch the previous six weeks. To makes matters worse, the last home cover came in a Week 4 loss to Kansas City, while the only home ATS win for Matt Patricia’s team in a victory occurred in Week 2 against the Chargers.

These division rivals hooked up at Soldier Field in Week 10 as Chicago held off Detroit, 20-13 to barely cash as six-point home favorites. The Lions announced the morning of the game that veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford would not start due to a back injury, opening the door for Driskel to make his sixth career start. Driskel threw for 269 yards and led Detroit to an early 6-0 lead, but Chicago scored the next 20 points to take control of the game.

Chicago has captured the last three meetings with Detroit since the start of last season, including a 23-16 road triumph on Thanksgiving in 2018 as three-point favorites. Trubisky missed that win due to injury as backup Chase Daniel tossed a pair of touchdowns and Chicago overcame 38 yards rushing for the win thanks to a late Eddie Jackson interception return for a score.

Bills at Cowboys (-6 ½, 45) – 4:30 PM EST

Not many people thought going into the season that Buffalo would own two more wins than Dallas heading into their interconference Thanksgiving matchup. But, that’s the case as the Bills (8-3 SU, 7-3-1 ATS) are in a prime position to capture the top Wild Card spot in the AFC after cruising past the Broncos this past Sunday, 20-3. Buffalo easily cashed as 3 ½-point home favorites, while limiting the woeful Denver offense to nine first downs and 134 yards.

The Bills continue to dominate teams with losing records by improving to 7-2 against these struggling squads, although the only victory against a team with a winning record came at Tennessee in Week 5. Buffalo has excelled on the road this season by posting a 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS mark, while allowing 20 points or fewer in all five away contests. The Bills were blown out by the Eagles in Week 8, but Philadelphia is now considered one of those clubs in the losing record category at 5-6. In the only loss against a team with a winning mark, the Bills covered as seven-point home underdogs against the Patriots in a 16-10 setback in Week 4.

Dallas (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS) owns the worst record of any division leader as the Cowboys still remain atop the NFC East despite falling short at New England on Sunday, 13-9. The Cowboys managed to cover as 5 ½-point road underdogs to move to 4-1 ATS the last five games. New England held Dallas to three field goals in awful weather at Gillette Stadium, while Cowboys’ quarterback Dak Prescott was limited to his lowest passing output of the season with 212 yards.

The Cowboys fell to 0-5 this season when scoring less than 30 points, while not beating a team that currently owns a winning record (Giants twice, Redskins, Dolphins, Eagles, Giants). Dallas went through an eight-year stretch from 2006 to 2013 posting a 7-1 record on Thanksgiving with the lone loss coming by three points to New Orleans in 2010. However, the Cowboys are 2-3 the last five on Turkey Day, but did knock off the Redskins last seasons, 31-23.

Dallas has lost five of its past seven matchups with AFC foes since 2018, while Buffalo is 3-1 in its previous four affairs with NFC opponents. The Bills defeated the Cowboys in their most recent meeting in 2015 in Buffalo, 16-6 as 6 ½-point favorites. The starting quarterback that day for Dallas was Kellen Moore, who is the team’s current offensive coordinator. Buffalo is making only its third appearance on Thanksgiving Day as the Bills try to improve on an 0-2 mark after losing in their last game back in 1994 at Detroit.

Saints (-7, 49) at Falcons – 8:20 PM EST

For the second time this month, New Orleans and Atlanta hook up as the Saints (9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS) seek revenge for an ugly 26-9 loss at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Falcons (3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS) closed as hefty 14-point road underdogs following their bye week (Saints were also off the bye) and were looking to snap a six-game skid. Atlanta did so with a dominating defensive effort as that side of the ball has let the Falcons down all season. The Falcons held the powerful Saints’ attack to 310 yards, while Matt Ryan threw two touchdown passes for Atlanta’s first victory since Week 2 against Philadelphia.

Atlanta’s two-game winning streak came to a crashing halt in last Sunday’s 35-22 home setback to Tampa Bay as 3 ½-point favorites. The Falcons’ defense has struggled all season, but it seemed like they were turning it around after allowing 12 points in road blowouts of the Saints and Panthers. However, Atlanta reverted back to its old ways by yielding 446 yards to a Tampa Bay team that had lost five of its previous six games.

The Saints’ offense topped the 31-point mark for the third time in four games since Drew Brees returned from his thumb injury as New Orleans edged Carolina last Sunday, 34-31. After the Panthers missed a go-ahead chip shot field goal, Brees drove the Saints down the field to set up the game-winning boot from Wil Lutz, but New Orleans failed to cash as 10-point favorites. Brees threw for 311 yards, while tossing three touchdowns for the third time in four games to build a commanding four-game edge over Carolina for first place in the NFC South.

New Orleans continues to have a seesaw effect on defense this season and if the trend stays true, expect another low-scoring output from the opposition. Since allowing 27 points to Seattle in Week 3, the Saints have given up 10, 24, 6, 25, 9, 26, 17, and 31 points, so there have not been consecutive rough defensive performances for Sean Payton’s team.

The Falcons slipped to 0-4 in their last four home games since knocking off the Eagles back in Week 2. In 2017 and 2018, Atlanta was not listed as a home underdog once; this season, Atlanta is received points at Mercedes-Benz Stadium three times and have gone 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS in those contests. Since losing to the Rams in Week 2, the Saints have not dropped a game away from the Big Easy by posting a solid 4-0 SU/ATS record in the past four road contests.

These teams hooked up on Thanksgiving night last season in New Orleans as the Saints took care of the Falcons, 31-17 as 11 ½-point home favorites. Brees tossed four touchdown passes on only 15 completions for the Saints, who have lost two of the past three visits to Atlanta dating back to the 2016 season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Total Talk - Thanksgiving
Joe Williams

It’s time to talk Thanksgiving totals, and we have an interesting trio of games on tap for your holiday viewing pleasure. Two of the three matchups are divisional matchups, as well as rematches, sandwiching a very intriguing AFC vs. NFC battle in the middle window. Through 58 divisional contests played in this year’s regular season, the ’under’ holds a 31-27. In the two earlier divisional matchups featuring Thursday’s combatants, the ‘under’ hit in both of the first installments.

Chicago at Detroit (FOX, 12:30 p.m. ET)

These teams met back in Week 10 at Soldier Field in Chicago with the Bears posting a 20-13 victory over Detroit. The under (38) never seemed to be threatened in that one despite the fact Chicago quarterback Mitchell Trubisky actually looked like an effective passer in that game. He tossed a season-best three touchdowns passes, easily besting QB Jeff Driskel, who is still filling in for the injured QB Matthew Stafford (back). While Trubisky threw for just 193 yards, his three touchdowns and no interceptions was easily his best ratio in that department, and his 131.0 QB rating was a season high.

The Bears enter this matchup on a 5-0 under run, as the offense continues to look rather slow and methodical, while the defense does its job more often than not. In other words, Chicago Bears football in a nutshell. Since a 25-point outburst, if you can call it that, against the Saints in Week 7, which happened to come after two weeks of studying and a bye, the Bears have posted totals of 16, 14, 20, 7 and 19. The defense was shredded for 36 in that Saints game, and that was by QB Teddy Bridgewater, by the way. Since, they have righted the ship with totals allowed of 17, 22, 13, 17 and 14. Again, Bears football.

There is no reason to believe anything will be different than the first meeting, as the Lions just cannot seem to get out of their own way. They’re coming off of a disappointing 19-16 loss at Washington last week, and many in the Twittersphere are calling for the Ford Family to pull the plug on the Matt Patricia experiment. Others are calling for boycotts of the Lions until they start winning. If that’s the case, Ford Field might be empty for a while.

The Lions had a potent passing attack under Stafford earlier in the season, going for 24 or more points in six of the first eight games, and 27 or more points on five occasions during the span. Since it was discovered Stafford had tiny fractures in his lower back. Driskel has taken over for three games and the results have not been good. While they did hoist up 27 points in a loss to Dallas in Week 11, they had the 13-point effort in Chicago and just the 16 points last week in D.C. The under is 2-1 in Driskel’s three assignments to date. It should be noted that Driskel is dealing with a hamstring injury which limited him in practice both Monday and Tuesday, although Monday’s status was just an estimation. In any event, if he cannot go it would be former Purdue signal called David Blough, engineer of the Ohio State upset last season, getting his first NFL start.

Overall Detroit has posted 378.5 total yards per game to rank ninth in the NFL, but most of that damage was down with a healthy Stafford. They’re just 18th in rushing yards per game, and 11th in points scored (23.6) and tumbling hard. Defensively they are just 29th in the league with 396.2 total yards per game allowed while yielding 275.5 passing yards per contest. They’re also 24th in rushing yards per game yielded at 120.7.

The under is a perfect 6-0 in Chicago’s past six inside the division, and 13-3 in the past 16 games overall. That includes a 5-2 mark in the past seven on the road, too. For Detroit, the over has hit in four straight at home, but the under is 5-1 in the past six inside the NFC North. The under has connected in six of the past eight meetings in this series, too.

This total opened 41 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and it's down to 38 as of Wednesday morning with one-sided action on the under.

Buffalo at Dallas (CBS, 4:30 p.m. ET)

The total for this game opened 45 and held steady before slipping ever so briefly to 44.5, but then it rose back to 45.5 and 46. You can likely continue to expect some fluctuation based upon the low-scoring total the Cowboys posted last week in New England, and based upon sensible bettors understanding Dallas was facing the No. 1 defense in the NFL in the rain and slop, and not to discard their offense too much. Statistically and records-wise, this should be the best matchup of the holiday.

The Bills hit the under in each of their first five games this season, and were actually the last NFL team to see an over result cash in 2019. While the over is 3-3 across the past six games for Buffalo since that 5-0 under run, keep in mind that two of their games came against the defensively-challenged Miami Dolphins, as Buffalo averaged 34.0 PPG in those two contests. Take the two Dolphins games out of the equation and the under is 8-1 for Buffalo in 2019.

The Cowboys haven’t beaten a team above .500 all season, going 0-4 straight up and 1-3 against the spread while splitting the over/under in four outings against winning sides. Meanwhile, the Bills have relished the opportunity to go on the road, going 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS while the under has produced a 4-1 mark. Again, the outlier here was a Nov. 17 trip to Miami where they dropped a season-high 37. In their other four roadies the Bills mustered 17, 28, 14 and 16. While coughing up 16, 14, 7 and 19.

Buffalo’s defense has had it on lockdown all season, ranking third in the NFL in total yards allowed (288.6), passing yards allowed (184.3) and points allowed (15.7). Offensively they have managed to rank a very middling 18th in total yards (352.7) on offense, while posting just 213.5 yards per game through the air to rank 24th. In three games against the NFC East the Bills are averaging 21.7 PPG while yielding 18.0 PPG.

Despite a nary nine points last week in the muck at Foxboro, the Cowboys still rank No. 1 in total yards per game (433.4) on offense and No. 1 in passing yards (303.5). They’re also sixth in the league with 26.8 PPG. Defensively they rank seventh with 19.1 PPG allowed. At home, the Pokes have posted 35, 31, 24, 37 and 24, so the Bills defense likely will have its hands full. Defensively, Dallas is allowed 17, 6, 24, 10 and 28 in five home games, a huge array.

For what it’s worth, the last time these teams met it was a 16-6 Dallas victory back on Dec. 27, 2015. Another note, the Cowboys have scored 31 points in their last four wins on Thanksgiving Day but just 6, 14 and 10 points in their losses. The Team Total on the Cowboys for tomorrow is hovering between 26 and 27.

New Orleans at Atlanta (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The oddsmakers are expecting this game to be the highest-scoring battle on the three-game Thanksgiving slate. Of course, they expected that in the first game, too, and the Saints laid an absolute egg. Back in Week 10 the Falcons won outright as 14-point underdogs, shocking New Orleans in a 26-9 stunner. The nine points tied a season low for NOLA, and it marked just the second time the Saints high-octane offense was held out of the end zone this season, and first time with QB Drew Brees under center for an entire game (he left the Week 2 game at L.A. Rams early due to injury).

For the 14th season the NFL features a night game on Thanksgiving Day (can you believe it’s been that long?) and the under has connected in each of the past five seasons, with the low side 9-4 overall. Last season’s Thanksgiving Day game featured a total of 61.5, but these teams never threatened that in a 31-17 win by the Saints under the protection of their dome in the Big Easy.

The loss to the Falcons in Week 10 seems to have served as a wake-up call for the Saints, as they have hit 34 points on offense in each of their past two outings, a pair of ‘over’ results inside the division at Tampa Bay and home to Carolina in a game the Saints probably should have lost 34-31 if the Panthers had a reliable kicker. The over is 3-1 in the four divisional games so far for the Saints, and 3-1 in their past four games on the road, too. The Saints have posted 33, 13, 36 and 34 in their past four away from home.

Atlanta has been a Jekyll & Hyde team, and those type of teams are maddening to bettors. They allowed 28, 20, 27, 24, 53, 34, 37 and 27 through their first eight games. So, naturally, everyone expected the Saints to steamroll them with a cornucopia of offense, but they allowed just nine points on the road. Then, the Falcons topped by stuffing Christian McCaffrey and the Panthers in a 29-3 drumming in Charlotte. Naturally, they’d keep it up at home against turnover-prone Jameis Winston and the Bucs last week. Nah, they were trucked for 35. Who will show up this week?

The total is hovering around 48.5 and 49 points as of Wednesday, depending on the shop, and that’s a little less than the first meeting. That’s likely based on the trends of these teams lately, as well as in this season. The under is 7-0-1 in the past eight appearances for New Orleans on a Thursday, and 9-2 in their past 11 against teams with an overall losing record. The under is 4-1 in Atlanta’s past five, and 3-1-1 in their past five Thursday showings. The under is also 4-1 in the past five meetings, and 7-3 in the past 10 battles between the Georgia Dome and the Mercedes-Benz Dome in downtown Atlanta.

We've see the under go 7-5 in the night spot on Thursday's this season and that includes a 5-2 mark to the low side in divisional games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Lions +5.5
Cowboys -7
Saints -7
Ole Miss +2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

757TX-ARLINGTON -758 ELON
TX-ARLINGTON is 19-5 ATS (13.5 Units) after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals since 1997.

759NC STATE -760 MEMPHIS
MEMPHIS are 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games off 3 or more consecutive home wins since 1997.

761MARYLAND -762 TEMPLE
TEMPLE is 34-13 ATS (19.7 Units) in road games versus good foul drawing teams - attempting >=25 free throws/game since 1997.

763TEXAS A&M -764 HARVARD
HARVARD is 14-4 ATS (9.6 Units) vs. good teams (Win Pct: 60% to 80%) in the last 3 seasons.

765USC -766 FAIRFIELD
USC is 13-2 ATS (10.8 Units) in road games as a favorite in the last 3 seasons.

767DAVIDSON -768 MARQUETTE
DAVIDSON is 32-18 ATS (12.2 Units) after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds in the last 3 seasons.

777PROVIDENCE -778 LONG BEACH ST
PROVIDENCE is 24-9 ATS (14.1 Units) in road games after 2 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers since 1997.

779WAKE FOREST -780 COLL OF CHARLESTON
COLL OF CHARLESTON is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) vs. good teams (Win Pct: 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons.

781UCF -782 PENNSYLVANIA
PENNSYLVANIA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after 2 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers in the last 3 seasons.

785TENNESSEE ST -786 CAL POLY-SLO
CAL POLY-SLO is 4-24 ATS (-22.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses in the last 3 seasons.

787N FLORIDA -788 LONG ISLAND
N FLORIDA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 2 straight games where opponent was called for 15 or less fouls in the last 3 seasons.

789TEXAS TECH -790 IOWA
TEXAS TECH is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

791CREIGHTON -792 SAN DIEGO ST
SAN DIEGO ST is 28-14 ATS (12.6 Units) versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season in the last 3 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Thursday, November 28


TX-Arlington @ Elon

Game 757-758
November 28, 2019 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
TX-Arlington
56.130
Elon
49.529
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
TX-Arlington
by 6 1/2
135
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
TX-Arlington
by 9 1/2
131
Dunkel Pick:
Elon
(+9 1/2); Over

Texas A&M @ Harvard

Game 763-764
November 28, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Texas A&M
54.524
Harvard
57.391
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Harvard
by 3
132
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Harvard
by 1 1/2
128 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Harvard
(-1 1/2); Over

North Carolina @ Michigan

Game 769-770
November 28, 2019 @ 1:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
North Carolina
72.280
Michigan
73.852
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Michigan
by 1 1/2
143
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
North Carolina
by 4
145 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Michigan
(+4); Over

Providence @ Long Beach St

Game 777-778
November 28, 2019 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Providence
62.917
Long Beach St
50.089
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Providence
by 13
142
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Providence
by 17
14 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Long Beach St
(+17); Under

Tennessee St @ Cal Poly

Game 785-786
November 28, 2019 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee St
49.866
Cal Poly
40.286
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee St
by 9 1/2
141
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee St
by 6 1/2
137
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee St
(-6 1/2); Over

NC State @ Memphis

Game 759-760
November 28, 2019 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NC State
63.847
Memphis
69.164
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Memphis
by 5 1/2
150
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NC State
by 2
153
Dunkel Pick:
Memphis
(+2); Under

USC @ Fairfield

Game 765-766
November 28, 2019 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
USC
63.844
Fairfield
45.049
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
USC
by 19
126
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
USC
by 14 1/2
129
Dunkel Pick:
USC
(-14 1/2); Under

Oregon @ Gonzaga

Game 771-772
November 28, 2019 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oregon
00.000
Gonzaga
00.000
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oregon

Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oregon

Dunkel Pick:
Oregon
N/A

Wake Forest @ Coll of Charleston

Game 779-780
November 28, 2019 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Wake Forest
57.634
Coll of Charlesto
58.573
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Coll of Charlesto
by 1
138
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Wake Forest
by 2 1/2
142
Dunkel Pick:
Coll of Charlesto
(+2 1/2); Under

LIU-Brooklyn @ North Florida

Game 787-788
November 28, 2019 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LIU-Brooklyn
46.578
North Florida
53.166
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
North Florida
by 6 1/2
156
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
North Florida
by 4
152
Dunkel Pick:
North Florida
(-4); Over

Davidson @ Marquette

Game 767-768
November 28, 2019 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Davidson
58.438
Marquette
63.954
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Marquette
by 5 1/2
136
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Marquette
by 3 1/2
141
Dunkel Pick:
Marquette
(-3 1/2); Under

Alabama @ Iowa State

Game 773-774
November 28, 2019 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Alabama
00.000
Iowa State
00.000
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Alabama

Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Alabama

Dunkel Pick:
Alabama
N/A

Texas Tech @ Iowa

Game 789-790
November 28, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Texas Tech
75.203
Iowa
62.072
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Texas Tech
by 13
142
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Texas Tech
by 6 1/2
145 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Texas Tech
(-6 1/2); Under

UCF @ Pennsylvania

Game 781-782
November 28, 2019 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
UCF
62.156
Pennsylvania
56.108
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
UCF
by 6
141
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pennsylvania
by 3
138
Dunkel Pick:
UCF
(+3); Over

Seton Hall @ Southern Miss

Game 775-776
November 28, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seton Hall
00.000
Southern Miss
00.000
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seton Hall

Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seton Hall

Dunkel Pick:
Seton Hall
N/A

Creighton @ San Diego St

Game 791-792
November 28, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Creighton
64.118
San Diego St
67.085
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego St
by 3
128
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego St
by 1
133
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego St
(-1); Under

Pepperdine @ Arizona

Game 783-784
November 28, 2019 @ 11:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pepperdine
55.443
Arizona
67.295
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 12
156
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 15
154
Dunkel Pick:
Pepperdine
(+15); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Thursday, November 28

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TX-ARLINGTON (3 - 3) at ELON (2 - 5) - 11/28/2019, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NC STATE (5 - 1) vs. MEMPHIS (5 - 1) - 11/28/2019, 4:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MARYLAND (5 - 0) vs. TEMPLE (4 - 0) - 11/28/2019, 11:00 AM
Top Trends for this game.
TEMPLE is 43-69 ATS (-32.9 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TEXAS A&M (3 - 1) vs. HARVARD (4 - 2) - 11/28/2019, 1:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS A&M is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS A&M is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
HARVARD is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USC (5 - 1) vs. FAIRFIELD (1 - 4) - 11/28/2019, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
USC is 69-44 ATS (+20.6 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


DAVIDSON (2 - 3) vs. MARQUETTE (3 - 1) - 11/28/2019, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MARQUETTE is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) in road games in November games since 1997.
DAVIDSON is 167-132 ATS (+21.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


PROVIDENCE (4 - 2) vs. LONG BEACH ST (2 - 4) - 11/28/2019, 2:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


WAKE FOREST (3 - 2) vs. COLL OF CHARLESTON (3 - 2) - 11/28/2019, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WAKE FOREST is 24-39 ATS (-18.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
WAKE FOREST is 24-39 ATS (-18.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
WAKE FOREST is 34-56 ATS (-27.6 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
WAKE FOREST is 34-56 ATS (-27.6 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
WAKE FOREST is 35-58 ATS (-28.8 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
WAKE FOREST is 14-30 ATS (-19.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
COLL OF CHARLESTON is 70-36 ATS (+30.4 Units) in road games after a non-conference game since 1997.
COLL OF CHARLESTON is 69-36 ATS (+29.4 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


UCF (3 - 1) vs. PENNSYLVANIA (3 - 2) - 11/28/2019, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCF is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in road games in November games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


PEPPERDINE (3 - 3) vs. ARIZONA (6 - 0) - 11/28/2019, 11:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PEPPERDINE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TENNESSEE ST (3 - 3) vs. CAL POLY-SLO (1 - 5) - 11/28/2019, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAL POLY-SLO is 18-39 ATS (-24.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CAL POLY-SLO is 18-39 ATS (-24.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CAL POLY-SLO is 17-31 ATS (-17.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
CAL POLY-SLO is 2-16 ATS (-15.6 Units) after allowing 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
CAL POLY-SLO is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after scoring 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
CAL POLY-SLO is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


N FLORIDA (4 - 3) vs. LONG ISLAND (1 - 5) - 11/28/2019, 4:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TEXAS TECH (5 - 0) vs. IOWA (4 - 1) - 11/28/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IOWA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 3 seasons.
IOWA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 3 seasons.
IOWA is 38-59 ATS (-26.9 Units) in November games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


CREIGHTON (4 - 1) vs. SAN DIEGO ST (6 - 0) - 11/28/2019, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO ST is 42-26 ATS (+13.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO ST is 42-26 ATS (+13.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CREIGHTON is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in November games since 1997.
CREIGHTON is 135-103 ATS (+21.7 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Thursday, November 28

@ Brooklyn
Memphis won five of its first six games vs schedule #298, forcing turnovers 26% of time (#13); they’ve grabbed 36.3% of their own rebounds (#25). Tigers are experience team #353 (last) whose bench plays #15 minutes; they start four freshmen and a senior. Memphis split pair of top 100 games, losing by 8 at Oregon. NC State won its last five games after an OT loss to Ga Tech; they’ve played schedule #334. Wolfpack is experience team #62 that starts two seniors, one junior. State forces turnovers 23.4% of time (#45).

@ Kissimmee, FL
Maryland won its first five games vs schedule #329, with best win by 18 over #93 Rhode Island. Terps are experience team #310 (#9 in continuity) that is forcing turnovers 22.6% of time (#58) but is shooting only 28.7% on arc- they start three sophs and a junior, have #36 eFG% defense in country. Temple won its first four games vs schedule #214, winning by 9 at USC in its only game outside of Philly; Owls are experience team #45 that starts two seniors, three juniors- they’re forcing turnovers 22.9% of time (#53) for new coach McKie.

Texas A&M won three of first four games vs schedule #346- they haven’t beaten a top 200 team yet. Aggies are experience team #177 that is forcing turnovers 23.1% of the (#52)- they haven’t played in eight days. A&M is shooting only 22.7% on arc, turning ball over 21.6% of time (#260)- they start three seniors, one junior. Harvard is experience team #46 that won three of first five games vs schedule #280; they’re 0-2 vs teams in top 150, losing by 5 to Northeastern, by 12 to Buffalo. Harvard is 3-0 allowing 74 or fewer points, 0-2 when they allow more than 74.

Long trip east for USC team that won five of first six games vs schedule #268, winning only road game at Nevada by 10; Trojans are experience team #221 that starts three frosh, two seniors- they won their two games vs teams outside the top 200, by 29-11 points. USC is grabbing 34.2% of its own misses (#48). Fairfield lost four of first five games vs schedule #190, while playing tempo #349- their only win was in OT over #330 Holy Cross. Stags are experience team #120 that starts two juniors, two seniors; they lost their only top 100 game by 19 to Maryland.

Marquette won three of first four games vs schedule #124, with lone loss by 16 at Wisconsin; Eagles are #56 experience team that starts two seniors, one junior- they’re making 41% of their 3’s (#18). Marquette has #15 eFG% defense this year, opponents are shooting only 38% inside arc against them. Davidson lost three of first five games, vs schedule #107; Wildcats have #295 defensive eFG%- teams are shooting 55.9% inside arc against them. Davidson lost both its top 100 games, by 10 to Auburn on a neutral floor, by 12 to Wake Forest.

Battle for Atlantis
Iowa State won three of first five games vs schedule #203, losing to Michigan by 7 Wednesday; they’re 0-2 in top 100 games, also losing by 6 at Oregon State. Cyclones are experience team #226 that starts two sophs, two seniors- they’ve forced turnovers 24.9% of time so far (#23). Alabama lost three of first five games vs schedule #67, while playing 3rd-fastest pace in country. Crimson Tide is experience team #299 whose bench plays #230 minutes- their two best guys played 36, 38 minutes last nite. Alabama is turning ball over 22.6% of time (#296).

Michigan won its first five games for new coach Juwan Howard vs schedule #270; Wolverines beat Creighton by 10, Iowa State by 7 for their best wins so far. Michigan is experience team #108 that starts two seniors, two juniors and is shooting 40.5% on arc, 61.7% inside arc- their eFG% is #2 in country. North Carolina won its first five games vs schedule #222; Tar Heels are experience team #223 that starts two frosh, one soph- they played three starters 32:00+ in their 76-67 win yesterday. Michigan made 10-21 on arc in its 83-76 win over Iowa St. Wednesday.

Seton Hall is 4-2 vs schedule #175, with losses by 3 at home to Michigan State, by 2 to Oregon last nite, when Pirates blew 19-point 2nd half lead. Seton Hall is experience team #89 that starts three seniors, two juniors; they’re forcing turnovers 21.5% of time, have the #42 eFG% defense in country, but they had two guys banged up right at end of last night’s game (check status). Southern Miss is 0-4 vs D-I teams, scoring 61.5 ppg; they have two non-D-I wins; Golden Eagles are experience team #246 that is turning ball over 22.2% of time, shooting only 28.6% on arc.

Oregon is 6-0 vs schedule #58, despite having only three players back from LY; Ducks rallied back from down 19 last nite to nip Seton Hall, playing only one guy 30:00+. Oregon has made 41.4% of its 3’s (#16), 55.9% of their 2’s (#34)- they already have top 50 wins over Memphis/Houston/Seton Hall. Gonzaga won its first seven games vs schedule #342, with only top 100 win by 30 at #95 Texas A&M. Zags are experience team #244 that is making 41.5% of its 3’s (#13). Gonzaga is forcing turnovers 22.3% of time (#74); they’re stepping up in class here.

Wooden Legacy, Anaheim
Wake Forest won three of its first five games vs schedule #158; Deacons are experience team #148 that starts three seniors and a freshman- they’ve made 39.2% of their 3’s (#34). Wake turns ball over 20.1% of time (#201), which could be a problem vs Charleston’s defense. Charleston won three of first five games, losing last game by point at UCF; Cougars are #69 experience team that starts two seniors, two juniors. Charleston gets 22.6% of its points on foul line (#49)- they shoot only 27.3% on arc, but don’t take that many 3’s.

Arizona won its first six games vs schedule #328, with best wins over New Mexico State, Illinois; Wildcats are experience team #274 that starts three frosh, two seniors- they’re forcing turnovers 27.6% of time (#7), have #18 eFG% defense and are also making 41.2% of their 3’s. Pepperdine split its first six games, losing by 16 to Cal, by 7 at USC, two Pac-12 teams. Waves are experience team #160 that starts three juniors, one senior- they’ve made 40% of their 3’s (#28) while playing pace #44, but their opponents are making 40.2% of their 3’s. Not a good defensive team.

@ Las Vegas
Texas Tech won its first five game vs schedule #352, 2nd-easiest schedule so far; Red Raiders haven’t played a team ranked higher than #246 so far, so they’re moving way up in class here. Tech has made 42.4% of its 3’s (#10); they’re experience team #329 that starts two frosh, one soph, which explains the soft early schedule. Iowa won four of its first five games, all at home; they got whacked 93-78 at home by DePaul. Hawkeyes experience team #257 who’s bench plays #38 minutes; they’re getting 23.1% of their points on foul line (#36).

San Diego State won its first six games vs schedule #288; Aztecs’ only top 150 win was by 5 at BYU, which was only team to score more than 64 points against them. State is forcing turnovers 23.5% of time (#42); they’ve got #12 eFG% defense, are #88 experience team that has made 37.3% of its 3’s (#59). Creighton won four of its first five games vs schedule #296; they’re experience team #250 that starts three juniors, two sophs. Bluejays are shooting 41.5% on arc (#15), getting 38.8% of their points on arc (#45)- their loss was by 10 at Michigan.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Thursday, November 28

Trend Report

Maryland @ Temple
Maryland
Maryland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Maryland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Temple
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Temple's last 5 games
Temple is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Texas-Arlington @ Elon
Texas-Arlington
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Texas-Arlington's last 24 games on the road
Texas-Arlington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Elon
Elon is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games at home
Elon is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

Texas A&M @ Harvard
Texas A&M
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas A&M's last 5 games
Texas A&M is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Harvard
Harvard is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games
Harvard is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

Providence @ Long Beach State
Providence
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Providence's last 12 games
Providence is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Long Beach State
Long Beach State is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

Tennessee State @ Cal Poly
Tennessee State
Tennessee State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Tennessee State is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games
Cal Poly
Cal Poly is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games

North Carolina State @ Memphis
North Carolina State
North Carolina State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
North Carolina State is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Memphis
Memphis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Memphis's last 14 games

USC @ Fairfield
USC
USC is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of USC's last 6 games
Fairfield
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Fairfield's last 8 games
Fairfield is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Wake Forest @ College of Charleston
Wake Forest
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Wake Forest's last 6 games
Wake Forest is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
College of Charleston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of College of Charleston's last 8 games
College of Charleston is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games

Davidson @ Marquette
Davidson
Davidson is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Davidson is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Marquette
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Marquette's last 5 games
Marquette is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games

Iowa @ Texas Tech
Iowa
Iowa is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Iowa is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Texas Tech
Texas Tech is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Texas Tech is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games

Central Florida @ Pennsylvania
Central Florida
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Central Florida's last 6 games
Central Florida is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games
Pennsylvania
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pennsylvania's last 11 games
Pennsylvania is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games

Creighton @ San Diego State
Creighton
Creighton is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Creighton's last 9 games
San Diego State
San Diego State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of San Diego State's last 18 games

Pepperdine @ Arizona
Pepperdine
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Pepperdine's last 8 games
Arizona
Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 game

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thursday's Tip Sheet
David Schwab

The Thanksgiving Day Holiday offers up a pair of neutral-site games in Las Vegas and Anaheim as the two featured college basketball betting matchups on the board.

From Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, the Big 12’s No. 12 Texas Tech Red Raiders face the Big Ten’s Iowa Hawkeyes. Moving to the Anaheim Convention Center for the second featured game, the West Coast Conference Pepperdine Waves close out Thursday’s college basketball schedule in a late start against the Pac-12’s No. 14 Arizona Wildcats

No. 12 Texas Tech vs. Iowa (FOX Sports 1, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Texas Tech -6.5, Total 146

Betting Matchup

With Sunday’s 96-66 romp against LIU-Brooklyn as 24-point favorites, the Red Raiders improved to a perfect 5-0 straight-up and 4-1 against the spread. The total has gone OVER in three of the five games. The No. 12 team in the nation is ranked ninth in scoring with an average of 87.0 points per game. This is also the top team in the country when it comes to team assists (22.0). Freshman guard Jahmi’us Ramsey is the leading scorer (19.4 PPG) and senior guard Chris Clarke is averaging 5.8 assists a game.

Iowa has won four of its first five games SU. Its lone loss was against DePaul in a 93-78 upset as a nine-point favorite. The Hawkeyes also failed to cover in an 83-68 victory against North Florida as 16-point favorites. The total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in four of those first five outings. Junior center Luka Garza scored a career-high 30 points in a recent win against Oral Roberts. He leads the Hawkeyes in both points (22.2) and rebounds (10.2). Iowa is averaging 84.0 points and 40.2 rebounds a game. One injury note; sophomore forward Jack Nunge was lost for the season with a torn ACL.

Betting Trends

-- The Red Raiders are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games against the Big Ten. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games against a team from this conference.

-- The Hawkeyes have gone 11-1 ATS in their last 12 neutral-site games with the total going OVER in five of their last six games against the Big 12.

-- These two teams played a home-and-home series in 2003 and 2004 with the home team winning each time SU. The total stayed UNDER in each contest.

Pepperdine vs. No. 14 Arizona (ESPN2, 11:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Arizona -14.5, Total 154.5

Betting Matchup

The Waves have split their first six games both SU and ATS. This includes losses to other Pac-12 teams’ California and USC. They did cover as 11 ½-point underdogs in the 91-84 road loss to the Trojans. The total has gone OVER in five of those six games. Junior guard Colbey Ross leads the team in both points (20.7) and assists (7.0). He scored 38 points in the loss to USC. Pepperdine is scoring an average of 78.5 PPG and it is giving up an average of 79.8 points on defense.

Arizona has won its first six games SU with a profitable 5-1 record ATS. It failed to cover as heavy 25-point favorites in a 71-74 victory against South Dakota State last Thursday. On Sunday, the Wildcats pulled away from Long Beach State in a 104-67 win as 25 ½-point favorites. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their first six games. Arizona is scoring 87.7 PPG which is the sixth-highest average in the nation. Defensively, it is holding opponents to just 57.3 points. Freshman forward Zeke Nnaji leads the team in scoring with 19.5 points a game.

Betting Trends

-- The Waves have a 4-1 record ATS in their last five games played at a neutral site. The total has gone OVER in six of their last seven nonconference games.

-- The Wildcats are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against the West Coast Conference and the total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five WCC games.

-- The only time these two teams met was in 2001 with Arizona rolling to a 94-71 victory at home as a 13 ½-point favorite.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

33NEW JERSEY -34 MONTREAL
NEW JERSEY is 32-28 ATS (1.2 Units) after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread in the last 3 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL
Long Sheet

Thursday, November 28

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NEW JERSEY (8-11-0-4, 20 pts.) at MONTREAL (11-8-0-5, 27 pts.) - 11/28/2019, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 16-6 ATS (+22.1 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 108-92 ATS (+8.6 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW JERSEY is 6-1 (+6.0 Units) against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
NEW JERSEY is 6-1-0 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.8 Units)