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Platinum Plays
Free Pick: the Marquette Golden Eagles -2½ over Davidson
Free Pick: the Marquette Golden Eagles -2½ over Davidson
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Sharp Bettor
SharpBettor FREE Play Thursday, November 28, 2019
11/28 01:30 PM NFL(307) BUFFALO BILLSVS(308) DALLAS COWBOYS
Take : BillsComment
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Easy Money Sports
Lee's Free Thanksgiving Day Selection Is
IOWA +6½Comment
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Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Thursday : IOWA +5½ over Texas Tech
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Golden Dragon
FREE WINNER for Thursday
Mississippi State -2'Comment
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Hawkeye Sports
Thursday's Free Pick: USC Trojans - 14 1/2Comment
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Huddle Up Sports
Free Play: Mississippi/Mississippi State over 58Comment
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Arthur Ralph
FREE play THANKSGIVING Day UNDER 47 Dallas/Bills gmComment
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The Last Call Thursday's Free Play: Charleston Cougars + 2Comment
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Vegas Steam Line
Your free winner for Thursday: MARQUETTE -3½ over Dayton
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High Stakes Syndicate
Free Selection for Thursday: San Diego State Aztecs - 1Comment
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Kenny Towers
Your Free Pick for Thursday: Chic/Det UNDER 37Comment
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Stephen DeAngelo
Terrible call with Wednesday’s complimentary selection on the Knicks, who no-showed in Toronto. For your Thanksgiving Day freebie, we’ll lay the small price with the Bears in the opener of today’s NFL tripleheader.
I’m not about to start singing the praises of the Bears, who last week barely escaped with a 19-14 home victory over the woeful Giants and who are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in their last seven outings (including 0-3 SU and ATS on the highway). Chicago is far from a quality football team, and a big reason why is it doen’t have a quality quarterback. After a decent sophomore campaign in 2018, Mitchell Trubisky has been mostly dreadful all season.
That said, Trubisky’s best game of 2019 came against the Lions three weeks ago—he only passed for 173 yards, but he tossed three TDs and (most importantly) didn’t get picked off in a 20-13 home victory. In other words, Trubisky took full advantage of a horrific Lions pass defense that’s giving up 275.5 passing yards per game and allowing opposing passers to post an average QB rating of 96.4!
And while the Bears have been pretty putrid of late, the Lions have been even worse. They have just one win since Sept. 22 (a 31-28 home triumph over the aforementioned woeful Giants). Detroit came up short as a 6½-point chalk in that victory, which is among six consecutive non-covers for the Lions heading into today.
Speaking of non-covers, that’s been Detroit’s M.O. on Thanksgiving over the past decade-and-a-half: The Lions have cashed just four times in their last 15 Thanksgiving games. That includes last year’s 23-16 loss to these same Bears as a three-point underdog. What stands out most about last year’s matchup is the Lions had a healthy Matthew Stafford under center and still only produced 16 points. This year, Stafford will be on the sidelines as he continues to deal with a back issue. Not only that, but Stafford's backup—the very below-average Jeff Driskel, who tossed three picks in last week's loss to the 1-9 Redskins—won't start because of an injured hamstring. That leaves Detroit's offense in the hands of someone named David Blough, an undrafted rookie from Purdue.
That's right: An undrafted rookie making his first career NFL start ... on Thanksgiving Day ... against Khalil Mack and Co. Yikes!
Again, nobody’s going to mistake the Bears for the Patriots, but they’re significantly better than the Lions. As long as Chicago comes ready to play (always iffy on Thanksgiving), it will take care of business and beat the Lions by at least a touchdown.
4* CHICAGO BEARSComment
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Mitchell Newman
When the teams played on November 10th at Soldier Field, Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford was a late scratch and the line on the game rose to Chicago -6 1/2 points. It was a rather non-descript game, but the Bears did prevail by a 20-13 score which was good enough for a third straight Bears series win and cover.
One of those three wins and covers came last year on Thanksgiving Day, as the Bears won that game at Ford Field, 23-16 as the -3 point road chalk.
Deja Vu all over again today, as we have a similar number being placed on this meeting that is being played in the same venue. That Lions pointspread failure on Turkey Day a season ago drops their spread mark to just 4-11 their last 15 played on this holiday!
Stafford is still sidelined, and while Mitchell Trubisky is not instilling too much confidence among the Bears faithful these days, I believe he does rate the edge over the available Detroit quarterbacks.
Jeff Driskel who was sacked an alarming 6 times on Sunday at Washington, and was also picked off 3 times in that loss. Driskel is officially listed as the backup for this game, as he has a hamstring injury that will keep him on the sidelines.
That means undrafted Purdue rookie David Blough will make his first career NFL start. Good luck with that Detroit!
The Lions have now dropped their last 4 and 7 of their last 8 overall straight up and failed 6 in a row against the spread.
The Bears defense rates the nod over the Lions defense as of this writing, so inclined to lay the field goal with the flawed visitors who despite their 1-6 spread mark their last 7 games remain a better choice than the very flawed host.
Chicago has won 2 of their last 3 on the year, look for them to up it to 3 of 4 as the defense sets up Trubisky and the struggling offense with a couple of short-field scoring opportunities that will lead to a 9 point victory.
Turkey of a game to start Turkey Day, but my money is on Chicago.
3* CHICAGOComment
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Bob Valentino
No doubt that the Dallas Cowboys will be itching to get the taste of their most recent loss out of their mouths right quick when they take to the field this Thanksgiving afternoon against the Buffalo Bills, but the question remains can Dallas get back in the win column by the number required to cover today at home?
Buffalo improved to 8-3 on the season with a dominant 20-3 home win and cover over Denver on Sunday in a game they limited the Broncos to just 9 total first downs and a paltry 134 total yards of offense. Tough to take to the road for these Thursday games and it is especially tough with this being a holiday Thursday at that, but I feel the Bills can make these points work in their favor in this spot.
The Bills bring a 3-0-1 spread mark this season as the underdog into this game at AT&T Stadium, while the Cowboys loss to the Patriots on Sunday means they are 0-4 now when playing teams with a winning record (Pats, Vikings, Packers and Saints) this season. It should also be noted that while Dallas did cover in their annual Thanksgiving game last season, they are still just 1-7 against the spread their last 8 on Thanksgiving Day.
Some will day that the Buffalo 8-3 mark is a bit overvalued based on the teams they have beat up on to get to that lofty win total, and while that may be true, the Bills do present a solid defense today that is equipped to slow down Dak, Zeke and the Cowboys offense, and Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen has limited the turnovers to just one pick over the Bills last 6 games.
The upcoming schedule for Buffalo shows Baltimore on the card next and then road games at Pittsburgh and New England also to come before closing at home with a Jets team that has picked up some steam. Sean McDermott's team is going to be tested and while I am not 100% convinced they are going to win this game outright, the points are just too good to pass on against this Dallas team that is officially treading on very thin ice after owner Jerry Jones' latest press conference after the New England loss.
Have to take the points today.
3* BUFFALOComment
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