Sunday 12-1-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Gridiron Angles - Week 13
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Cardinals are 10-0 ATS (4.75 ppg) since Oct 30, 2011 coming off a loss where they allowed at least 300 passing yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Titans are 0-12 ATS (-9.62 ppg) since Dec 19, 2004 on the road coming off a game where they had a player with at least 124 receiving yards.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Buccaneers are 0-7-1 ATS (-3.12 ppg) since Sep 25, 2016 coming off a road game where Jameis Winston had at least two interceptions.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Buccaneers are 14-0 OU (10.29 ppg) since Oct 22, 2017 as a dog coming off a game where they scored more points than expected.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Raiders are 0-12 OU (-8.96 ppg) since Dec 30, 2001 as a road dog coming off a loss as a favorite where less scored points than expected.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Colts are 12-0 ATS (+6.29 ppg) at home after a game as a road dog in which they converted at least five third downs.

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JOHN MARTIN
NFL | Dec 01, 2019
Eagles vs. Dolphins

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Philadelphia Eagles -9.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are expected to get back Alshon Jeffery, Lane Johnson and Nelson Agholor from injury this week. They were short-handed on offense last week and it showed in their loss to the Seahawks. Now getting their weapons back, and still with a legit chance to win the NFC East, look for the Eagles to take out their frustration on the Miami Dolphins Sunday. They Dolphins have come back down to reality the last two weeks by losing 20-37 at home to Buffalo and 24-41 at Cleveland. The Eagles will likely be able to name their number offensively, and their defense remains one of the best in the NFL and should shut down this awful Miami offense. The Dolphins are only scoring 14.8 points per game this season and 13.7 points per game at home. They have actually played better on the road than at home this year. The Dolphins are 8-25-1 ATS in their last 34 games after allowing more than 30 points last game. Give me the Eagles.

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BRANDON LEE
NFL | Dec 01, 2019
Chargers vs. Broncos

10* FREE NFL PICK (Broncos +3)

I'll take my chances here with Denver catching a field goal at home against the Chargers. I've been spot on with the Broncos the last two weeks, cashing an easy winner as a 10-point dog at Minnesota and then playing against them as a slim 3.5-point dog in last week's ugly loss to the Bills.

Big reason I was against the Broncos last week, was because of how they lost that game against the Vikings. Also being on the road against one of the best defenses in the league. I believe Denver is now poised for a big bounce back effort at home against a division rival. I also think the offense could get a big boost here with the expected debut of rookie quarterback Drew Lock.

As for the Chargers, they just keep getting respect despite a poor product on the field. LA's offense hasn't been good at all and this Denver defense is not the reason they are sitting at 3-9. They are only giving up 18.2 ppg at home and opposing QB's are only averaging 185 passing yards/game against them in Denver. I just don't think Philip Rivers will be able to do enough with how bad that offensive line is.

Broncos are 5-1 ATS last 6 off a loss by 14 or more and 11-3 ATS last 14 after a game where they totaled 150 or fewer passing yards. Chargers just 3-7-2 ATS last 12 overall.

Chargers turned it over 4 times in their last game against KC and finished with a -3 turnover margin in that game. Favorites after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are just 9-30 (23%) ATS over the last 3 seasons. Give me the Broncos +3!

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WILL ROGERS
NFL | Dec 01, 2019
Chargers vs. Broncos
UNDER 38½

The set-up: The Broncos are officially out of the playoff picture. The Chargers are on the verge of being eliminated as well, as they come out of their bye week in a "must win" scenario. Denver comes in off a humbling loss to the Bills, but it'll be playing for pride here at home as it looks to play the role of spoiler vs. Philip Rivers and the Chargers, who continue to struggle with offensive consistency this season. Rivers looks his age this year and I believe the veteran will predictably struggle in the high altitude of Denver vs. a Broncos team that's clearly in a foul mood.

The pick: Additionally note that LA has seen the total dip under the number in five of its last six as a road favorite, while Denver has seen the total go under in four of five as a home dog of three points or less. Both from a situtational stand point and from a trend/numbers based one, I think this one sets up as more of a defensive affair than a "shootout." Consider the under.

1* FREE PLAY on the UNDER Chargers/Broncos.

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RICKY TRAN
NFL | Dec 01, 2019
Packers vs. Giants
Packers-6 -118

My 1* FREE PLAY is on the Green Bay Packers.

Green Bay is now tied with Minnesota at 8-3 for the NFC North lead after a terrible 37-8 loss at San Francisco last weekend. The Vikes are in Seattle on Monday Night, so this is a big opportunity for Aaron Rodgers and company to get untracked.

The Giants are in terrible form, losers of seven straight. The uncertainty at QB going into the season is still a concern right now. Why start putting together victories at this point when you're so close to earning the No. 1 spot in the draft?

Key Trends:

- Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last six following a loss by 14 points or more.

- New York is just 1-4 ATS at home this season.

- The Giants are only 1-3 ATS this year off a road loss.

The verdict: As mentioned off the top, this is a big game for Green Bay. After coming out of its bye week with a pathetic effort vs. the 49ers, I look for it to "right the ship" in this very winnable contest; lay the points!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JACK JONES
NFL | Dec 01, 2019
Redskins vs. Panthers

Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Carolina Panthers -10

The Carolina Panthers are in need of a win to stay alive in the playoff chase. They have played a tough schedule here of late with close losses to the Packers and Saints on the road, and a bad loss to the Falcons at home. But now they get to face the lowly Washington Redskins to get right.

The Redskins are just 2-9 this season and scoring a league-low 13.1 points per game. They have given the reigns at QB to Dwayne Haskins, and it’s not going well for him. Haskins is completing just 54.6% of his passes with a 2-to-6 TD/INT ratio and 6.1 yards per attempt. Case Keenum has been the much more effective quarterback with 67% completions, a 9-to-4 ratio and 7.1 per attempt. It’s mind-boggling that they are going with Haskins.

Washington is coming off a misleading 19-16 win over Detroit last week that actually has them overvalued this week. They were outgained by 134 yards by the Lions a week after getting outgained by 175 yards by the Jets in a 17-34 loss. The Panthers are better than both of those teams. The Redskins are 2-8 in their last 10 games with all eight of those losses coming by 9 points or more, so they are used to getting blown out this season. They are getting outscored by 11.4 points per game on the season.

Christian McCaffrey is in line for a big day on the ground against a Redskins defense that allows 369.0 yards per game, including 138 yards per game and 4.3 per carry rushing. And the Panthers will be up against a Washington defense that will be without their best pass rusher in Ryan Kerrigan. He is out with a concussion, and stud DT Da’Ron Payne is questionable with an ankle injury.

The Panthers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Carolina is also 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Panthers are 36-12 ATS in their last 48 against poor offensive teams that score 17 or fewer points per game. Bet the Panthers Sunday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JACK BRAYMAN

My free winner for Sunday is on the Jacksonville Jaguars against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Jaguars are mired in a three-game losing streak, and the Buccaneers are in after an impressive stifling of the Atlanta Falcons.

At some point Jags coach Doug Marrone will address the problem his team has in the second half, and I think this is a good week to do so.

Jacksonville has been outscored a combined 52-8 in the third quarter the last three games - three losses that dropped the Jags from being a .500 team with a good chance to challenge for a wild-card spot, into the 11th place team in the AFC.

This could be the week the Jags find their way into the end zone in the third and fourth quarters.

Tampa Bay's opponents have more touchdowns than the Bucs in the second half, 22 to 15, and the Buccaneers have the 21st-ranked defense in the league. And given those two stats, consider this: the Bucs have scored 312 points, third most in the NFL. That’s the most Tampa Bay has ever had through 11 games. And yet this is a 4-7 football team.

That defense is far too inconsistent.

And the turnovers, pfft. Jameis Winston is a turnover machine. He's thrown a league-leading 20 interceptions and also lost four fumbles through 11 games.

Finally, the Jaguars are 3-for-3 against Tampa Bay in Jacksonville.

Lay the chalk in this one.

3* JAGUARS

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KEVIN DOLAN

Event: (465) New York Jets at (466) Cincinnati Bengals
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 1, 2019 1PM EST
Play: Cincinnati Bengals 3.5 (-110)

With the news that Andy Dalton returns to QB duties for the Bengals on Sunday, we have that marked as an overall upgrade over the change from Ryan Finley, and our numbers have this game at Cincinnati -1. That makes for a ton of value at the market-wide number of Cincinnati getting over a field goal and this is a premium play for us over at Wagertalk at the current number.

Take the Bengals plus the points on Sunday.

PLAY: CINCINNATI BENGALS +3.5

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BOBBY LIGS

Event: (467) Los Angeles Rams at (468) Arizona Cardinals
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 1, 2019 4PM EST
Play: Arizona Cardinals 4.0 (-110)

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Paul Leiner

Three NFL picks 12/1

100* Dolphins +10
100* Patriots -3
100* Over 42.5 Jets/Bengals

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for ZIA

ZIA - Race 8	$1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / 1st Leg .50 Pick 3/ 2nd Leg Pick 4
Stakes • 400 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 97 • Purse: $145,000 • Post: 3:09P
QUARTER HORSE 400Y, NEW MEXICO QUARTER HORSE FILLIES AND MARES CHAMPIONSHIP S. - FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED (RG1). NO NOMINATION FEE. $500 DUE AT TIME OF ENTRY. STARTERS TO PAY AN ADDITIONAL $500. $2,000 SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATIONS MAY BE MADE AT TIME OF ENTRY AND SHALL INCLUDE ALL FEES. $145,000 GUARANTEED (INCLUDES $75,000 FROM THE NMHBA FUND). TO BE DIVIDED 60% TO THE WINNING OWNER, 20%% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 5% TO FOURTH,3% FIFTH AND2% TO SIXTH. WEIGHTS; THREE YEAR OLDS ; 125 LBS. OLDER; 127 LBS. STARTERS TO BE NAMED THROUGH THEENTRY BOX BY THE USUAL TIME OF CLOSING. THIS RACE WILL BE LIMITED TO TEN (10) STARTERS WITH PREFERENCE TO HORSES WITH THE HIGHEST EARNINGS IN 2018-2019. TROPHY TO THE WINNING OWNER.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * TOOFLASHYFORYOU: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. WOODYS COPY CAT: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Sty le designation. REGARD THE ROSE: Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. BIG SIERRA CARTEL: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. CHICKS BABY SUDS: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50.
1	TOOFLASHYFORYOU	5/1	6/1
4	WOODYS COPY CAT	6/1	6/1
2	REGARD THE ROSE	20/1	7/1
11	BIG SIERRA CARTEL	12/1	8/1
5	CHICKS BABY SUDS	6/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	TOOFLASHYFORYOU	1	5/1	Fast	98	98	3.3	0.0	0.0
2	REGARD THE ROSE	2	20/1	Average	97	96	5.2	0.0	0.0
3	SISTER SOPHIA	3	4/1	Fast	91	85	2.8	0.0	0.0
4	WOODYS COPY CAT	4	6/1	Fast	93	97	2.7	0.0	0.0
5	CHICKS BABY SUDS	5	6/1	Average	91	89	3.9	0.0	0.0
6	FIRST N FOREVER	6	8/1	Fast	93	87	2.3	0.0	0.0
7	CAT DADDYS LIL GIRL	7	5/2	Average	94	89	3.7	0.0	0.0
8	HOLLYWOODCROWN	8	20/1	Average	91	83	4.8	0.0	0.0
9	IGOTMYBIGGIRLJEANSON	9	15/1	Average	93	86	4.3	0.0	0.0
10	JESS FIRE CHICK	10	12/1	Fast	93	85	2.4	0.0	0.0
11	BIG SIERRA CARTEL	11	12/1	Fast	95	91	3.5	0.0	0.0
12	FAMOUS JULIA	12	20/1	Average	89	79	3.9	0.0	0.0

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park

Mountaineer Park - Race 2	Second Half $2 Early Daily Double (Races 1-2) ($.50) Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5) $.50 Trifecta $1 Exacta Box ($.20) Superfecta
Claiming $4,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $10,000 • Post: 7:22P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE NOVEMBER 1 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * FOXY GATOR: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest Tra ckMaster Power Rating. CRITICAL HUMOR: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. LIL' SMARTIEPANTS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the to p three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
3	FOXY GATOR	4/1	4/1
4	CRITICAL HUMOR	5/2	5/1
7	LIL' SMARTIEPANTS	2/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	LIL' SMARTIEPANTS	7	2/1	Front-runner	71	63	65.8	61.4	56.4
1	LA PAROTA	1	8/1	Alternator/Front-runner	67	67	64.0	45.6	34.1
2	MY SOLITUDE	2	8/1	Stalker	76	57	42.4	46.6	35.1
3	FOXY GATOR	3	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	81	71	47.4	69.2	64.7
4	CRITICAL HUMOR	4	5/2	Trailer	82	64	37.2	60.6	58.1
6	POSTINO'S SECRET	6	12/1	Trailer	70	61	32.4	50.0	39.5
5	SUNRISE COUNTESSA	5	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	56	43.8	53.8	45.3

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - SA - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $35000 Class Rating: 94

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN OR CLAIMING OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 1 ALLOWED 3 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 FOX RED 3/2
# 1 ROCKYS WARRIOR 5/2
# 1A WILL'S PIONEER 5/2

FOX RED looks strong to best this field. He should definitely be given a chance given the competitive speed numbers. Esquivel ought to be able to get this gelding to break out quickly for this event. Could best this group based on the speed figure - 86 - of his last affair. ROCKYS WARRIOR - Must be given consideration - I like the figures from the last competition. Well above average win rate at this distance/surface. WILL'S PIONEER - Handler boasts strong win numbers at this distance and surface. Rivera will probably be able to get this colt to break out early in this race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Laurel - Race #4 - Post: 1:50pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#6 R TRUE SENSATION (ML=12/1)
#7 PETION LASS (ML=12/1)
#1 LIFE IN FLASH (ML=6/5)


R TRUE SENSATION - This jock/conditioner duo has been producing a very favorable ROI, right at +190. A wise man taught me to wager on the lone speed horse. Take a look at this animal. PETION LASS - Rode this racer on Nov 11th and Whitacre is back again in the irons this time. LIFE IN FLASH - Have to give this filly a chance. Ran a solid contest last time out within the last thirty days. Rounding her way back into form. Each of her finish positions is getting better in her recent starts. This jockey and conditioner have a high winning percentage together. Just check out her most recent speed figure, 73. That one fits well in this bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 TIZ MADNESS (ML=7/2), #5 SHEZA HANDFULL (ML=9/2), #2 HEY MABEL (ML=5/1),

TIZ MADNESS - Difficult to put your cash on the win end of any thoroughbred that finishes second and third as often as this thoroughbred does. SHEZA HANDFULL - Looked good on Nov 7th, finishing first, but no works since is a bit troublesome. HEY MABEL - This equine doesn't have a champion's temperament. Always finishes in the place and show spots. No early speed in this bunch to help set-up her closing rush.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #6 R TRUE SENSATION to win. Have to have odds of at least 5/2 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	6 with [1,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,6,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,6,7] with [1,6,7] with [1,5,6,7,8] with [1,5,6,7,8] Total Cost: $36
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	[1,6,7] with [1,6,7] with [1,6,7,8] with [1,2,5,6,7,8] with [1,2,5,6,7,8] Total Cost: $72

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Fair Grounds - Race #7 - Post: 3:35pm - Maiden Special - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $45,000 Class Rating: 77

Rating:

#7 TAKE CHARGE CECE (ML=6/1)
#5 MI CHACHIS INTENTA (ML=8/1)
#4 PARTY GOER (ML=9/2)


TAKE CHARGE CECE - Filly's finish positions keep getting better with each race. Maybe today's the day. I like to wager on this angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a solid effort within the last month or so. 50-59-65 are last 3 speed ratings. Improving each time out is something she should do again in this race. MI CHACHIS INTENTA - This filly is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Leonard. 'Blinkers On' is a time-honored positive angle in handicapping the races. PARTY GOER - Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this horse is meeting an easier bunch than in the last race at Keeneland. That 72 fig this filly recorded in her last event tells me she's a big time player today. Last out, finished ninth on the soft turf at Keeneland. Will most certainly do better today. Can't help but like the second time addition of Lasix by the trainer today. An indication Catalano thinks she can win. Trying to break maiden moving from a grass race to the main track. I think Catalano will have her fit and in good condition for today's race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 CARPE CASANOVA (ML=7/2), #6 QUEEN OF CARNIVAL (ML=4/1), #8 GAELIC TALES (ML=6/1),

CARPE CASANOVA - I don't have a good intuition about this less than sharp equine in this contest. QUEEN OF CARNIVAL - I'd like to see better recent showings with morning line of 4/1. GAELIC TALES - Not a perfect 'situation' in this event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #7 TAKE CHARGE CECE to win if you can get odds of 3/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,5,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [4,5,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip