Service Plays Thursday 12/5/19

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Tom Fornelli

#TRUSTTHEPROCESS
3:05 PM
UNDER 230
HOUSTON @ TORONTO | 12/05 | 7:30 PM EST
While most of the attention when talking about Houston focuses on an efficient offense built around James Harden and Russell Westbrook, it's a better defensive team than most realize. Then there are the Raptors, and they rank fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency. This total is a little too high. Plus, you never know how many dunks the refs won't count!

5-0 IN LAST 5 NBA O/U PICKS | +500
7-1 IN LAST 8 HOU O/U PICKS | +591

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Adam Silverstein

FLORIDA FAVORITE
3:12 PM
DALLAS -3
DALLAS @ CHICAGO | 12/05 | 8:20 PM EST
Analysis to come later.

29-21 IN LAST 50 NFL ATS PICKS | +574
8-3 IN LAST 11 CHI ATS PICKS | +474

7-4 IN LAST 11 DAL ATS PICKS | +238


Micah Roberts

FORMER VEGAS Bookmaker
2:52 PM
DALLAS -3
DALLAS @ CHICAGO | 12/05 | 8:20 PM EST
The Bears have won two straight, while the Cowboys have lost their last two. Both teams are at 6-6, and the loser of this game likely will miss the playoffs. The Bears are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight and their 3-9 ATS mark is the worst in the league. The Cowboys don’t beat many good teams, but the Bears hardly qualify.

4-1 IN LAST 5 CHI ATS PICKS | +289

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Zack Cimini

HIGH POINT +2.5
ELON @ HIGH POINT | 12/05 | 7:00 PM EST
2:26 PM
The High Point Panthers are just 1-7, with their only win against a non D-1 school and all of their losses being double-digit blowouts -- including a 59-33 loss to Boston College and 93-70 to North Florida. That said, look for Thursday's game to be a winnable game against an Elon team that is vulnerable on the offensive end of the floor. Grab the points here.

2-1 IN LAST 3 CBB ATS PICKS | +81
FURMAN +12.5
FURMAN @ AUBURN | 12/05 | 9:00 PM EST
2:23 PM
A scrappy Furman team hits the road Thursday to face Auburn. The Paladins are coming off a poor loss against South Florida, but still match up well against an Auburn team that has cruised to a 7-0 record mainly due to a soft schedule. Look for a competitive matchup to test the Tigers' undefeated mark.

2-1 IN LAST 3 CBB ATS PICKS | +81
2-1-1 IN LAST 4 FURMAN ATS PICKS | +90

NEW ORLEANS -4
PHOENIX @ NEW ORLEANS | 12/05 | 8:00 PM EST
2:16 PM
The Pelicans have lost an unimaginable six games straight and are now just 6-15. They take on a Phoenix Suns team Thursday that has lost a bit of their early success. Now just 9-11, the Suns nearly surrendered a steep lead on the road against Charlotte on Monday night. Offensively, Phoenix has lost a bit of production from both its starters and second unit. Look for the Pelicans to end their losing skid.

8-5-1 IN LAST 14 NBA ATS PICKS | +248
12-7-1 IN LAST 20 NO ATS PICKS | +445

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Brandon Lovell
Auburn -12.5 30* triple your wager

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Maddux

NBA

10 New Orleans -3
10 Philadelphia/Washington over 234

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Bondi
3* dallas

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Sharpside Sports

YTD: 865-605-29

76ers -7.5 to win 4% of BR
Cowboys -3 to win 4% of BR

Philly -7.5: The Wizards have zero rim protection. Bryant (who is ranked 9th in non post up rim score %) and Wagner are both injured, and will be out tonight. This leaves Rui Hachimura and Bertens as the primary rim protectors. This makes the worse defense in the NBA even worse. The front court is incredibly small (IT, Ish Smith, Beal), and with 0 back court help the 76ers will be scoring at will. According to Synergy they are the worst transition defensive team, and the worst half court team. This is by a wide margin. Teams have an aFG% of 65.4% on the break. They simply don't get back. Philly runs 18.9% of the time, and we expect them to pour it on them after missed buckets. PHI is the 9th best spot up team in the NBA, and get majority of these looks by running post up action. These looks will be wide open tonight, as WAS will have no choice but to help on post ups by both Embiid and Horford. PHI has won 8 out of their last 9 with their only loss coming at TOR. Look for them to abuse this depleted team tonight and win easily.

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Robinhood

Today’s Selections –
The top NFL bettor in action is going with everyone’s favorite, the Chicago Bears +3.5, he bought the hook. I would advise a 0.50 unit wager on Chicago +3 which is how I will grade it. If you want the hook, that’s up to you. I always buy on and off 3 and 7 personally but again, that choice is yours. The LJP level on the game is a 3. Almost made it to 4 but not quite. With how the level scoring works with the LJP is a 3.9999999999999999 is still a “3”. It only achieves a level of “4” at 4.0 and above.

The top NHL bettor in action is going with Arizona/Philadelphia UN5.5 (-115). I would advise a 0.50 unit wager on UN5.5 (-115). The LJP level on the game is a 3.

The picture in basketball is real messy at the top. The following will be a good test of the LJP scoring. The top bettor has North Texas +6 over Oklahoma. The 4th at one book and the 6th bettor at another book are taking Oklahoma St. It also has an LJP score of 2.
Over in the NBA it is even messier with nothing achieving above a “2” on the LJP scale.

Yesterday the LA Kings were the bet from the top bettor in action. I ran with it because there was no contradiction at the top. However the LJP score on the game was a 2 and thereby from LJP standards, it would be a no play, lean at best. Why did I release the play? In an effort not to fully jump right into the LJP I wanted to keep doing things the way I would in the past with the RHC. It didn’t work out yesterday with the LA Kings. If today again shows why the LJP is a great strength assessment tool, you can expect in the future that even if the top bettor is on a game, if it doesn’t achieve a score of 3 or above, it’ll be a pass. I might let you know the info for your betting but it won’t be an official Robin Hood Club selection. Lastly, if the above 1 unit is too much risk or the thought of possibly being down 7 units has you looking for the nearest bridge to jump, then by all means DON’T BET IT! Bet what you are comfortable or pass altogether. If the thought of betting Trubisky has you beside yourself, give it a pass! The choice is yours. If you are uncomfortable with anything, don’t bet it! Oh one more thing, there has not been a lot of risk simply because I have not seen much in the markets. So I do not force plays nor do I chase. I am patient and wait for the games to come to me versus me pushing to the games. My level of patience, like bankroll management, is not for everyone so bet how and what you like, I just structure this to my betting style and philosophy… which again is not for everyone.

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MTI

4* Cowboys at Bears UNDER 43 - The Cowboys have played two road games this season against 500-plus teams. The final scores in those two games were 10-12 and 9-13. We are on the under

Both of these teams are 6-6 and whoever loses here will have any faint hope of making the playoffs extinguished. The line makers rate the game relatively close to pick and the Bears over averaged only 1.08 turnovers per game this season, which is 7th best in the league. This activates a nice UNDER spot for the Cowboys. Dallas is 0-17 OU when the line is inside of 6 points of pick, they were at home last week, and they are visiting a team that has averaged fewer than 1.3 turnover per game. The SDQL text is:

team=Cowboys and A and -6= 2008

Dallas is also 0-7 OU (-9.64 ppg) on the road off a home game when they have the same number of wins as losses and 0-10 OU (-9.00 ppg) on the road vs a non-divisional opponent that has allowed fewer than 4.5 yards per carry when they allowed at least five third down conversions in their last game. The SDQL for the second of this pair is:

team=Cowboys and A and NDIV and po:3DM>=5 and oA(o:YPRA)<4.5 and date>=20151000

The Bears are in the unusual spot of being a home dog after playing as a road favorite. This, and the fact that the Cowboys had four sacks in their last game, qualifies them for a nice league-wide, multi-season system with a very nice average margin.

Teams are 0-15 OU as a home dog on grass after playing as a road favorite when facing a team that recorded four sacks in their last game, staying under by an average of 15.43 ppg. The SDQL text is:

HD and surface=grass and p:AF and 4<=op:sacks and date>=20091011

The Cowboys have great offensive numbers this season, and the Bears defense sees this as a challenge. Since last Thanksgiving, Chicago is 0-9 OU (-10.78 ppg) when facing a team that is averaging fewer than four punts per game. The SDQL text is:

team=Bears and oA(punts) < 4.25 and date>=20181122

Also, Chicago is 0-8 OU (-11.62 ppg) as a dog after a game in which they out gained their opponent and 0-7 OU (-14.14 ppg) as a dog off a road game when their passing yards increased over each of their past two games.

There is a lot of room under this number.

MTis FORECAST: Cowboys 16 BEARS 13

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MTI NBA
20191205 4.5-Star 76ers at Wizards OVER 233.5
20191205 4.5-Star Suns at Pelicans OVER 235
20191205 4.5-Star Nuggets at Knicks UNDER 203

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JR STEVENS
VIP PICKS (NFL - TNF GAME OF THE YEAR)
Dallas -2.5
Prediction: Dallas 30 Chicago 17

VIP PICKS (NBA)
Washington +8/ML +260
Houston +2/ML +120

VIP PICKS (CBB)
Louisiana Tech +8/ML +300
Furman +13/ML +665
Northern Illinois +15/ML +930
High Point +3/ML+140

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Britney Deluca
ALL-STAR BANGER PLAY Chicago and Dallas Over 42.5

NBA HOT PICKS
Washington and Philadelphia Over 235
Toronto and Houston Under 231

CBB HOT PICKS
Hartford and St. Francis Under 137
High Point +3

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Seabass : 500 auburn , 400 la tech , 300 knicks game under , 400 wizards game over , 1000 * cowboys game over

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Paul Leiner

2000* NFL Over 43 dallas
100* CBB Oklahoma -6
100* NBA Sixers -7

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Vernon Croy

6 - Dallas/Chicago GAME TOTAL UNDER 43