Thursday 12-12-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Hunter Price

Dec 12 '19, 7:05 PM in 8h
NHL |Bruins vs Lightning

Play on: Bruins +135 at GTBets

1* Free Pick on Bruins +135

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Kenny Walker

Dec 12 '19, 8:05 PM in 9h
NBA |76ers vs Celtics

Play on: 76ers +1 -109 at GTBets

Free Pick on 76ers

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Mike Williams

Dec 12 '19, 9:05 PM in 10h
NBA |Mavs vs Pistons

Play on: Mavs -5½ -105 at pinnacle

1* on Mavs -5½ -105

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Cappers Access
Ravens -16
Nuggets -6

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Stephen DeAngelo

For Wednesday’s freebie, we’ll head to the college hardwood and play Iowa State in its annual rivalry game against Iowa.



The Cyclones are 6-3 on the season with a couple of nice wins over Seton Hall (76-66 in their second meeting of the season) and Alabama (104-89) and a trio of single-digit losses to Oregon State (80-74), Michigan (83-76) and Seton Hall (84-76), with the latter two in a preseason tournament.



But the most important factor in this contest which team is fresher, and that team is without question Iowa State. The Cyclones have played just twice since wrapping up that preseason tourney in the Bahamas with the loss to Seton Hall on Nov. 29, and both games were at home (a cakewalk over Missouri-Kansas City and the revenge win over Seton Hall).



On the other hand, since losing to San Diego State in the finale of a preseason tournament in Vegas on Nov. 29, Iowa played three games in six days in three different cities (Dec. 3 at Syracuse, Dec. 6 at Michigan, Dec. 9 vs. Minnesota). The Hawkeyes won the two bookend games while falling by 12 to Michigan.



Iowa finally gets a well-deserved, 9-day break after this one, but even as heated as this rivalry is, I’m just not convinced the Hawkeyes will have much in the tank tonight. And keep in mind that the home team has owned this rivalry in recent years, winning four straight meetings and seven of the last eight. And the majority of these recent contests were runaways, with the winner prevailing by least eight points on six occasions.


Lay the short price with Iowa State, which has posted double-digit wins in all five of its home games this season, pounding visitors by an average of 22 points per game (81.6-59.6).

2* IOWA STATE

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Betting Recap - Week 14
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 14 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 11-4
Against the Spread 8-6-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 8-7
Against the Spread 5-9-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-8

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 113-71-1
Against the Spread 89-108-6

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 110-92-1
Against the Spread 86-111-6

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 99-103-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Broncos (+8, ML +350) at Texans, 38-24
Bears (+3, ML +145) vs. Cowboys (Thu.), 31-24
Chiefs (+3, ML +140) at Patriots, 23-16

The largest favorite to cover
Vikings (-12) vs. Lions, 20-7
Browns (-6.5) vs. Bengals, 27-19
Ravens (-6) at Bills, 24-17

It's a LOCK!

-- The Denver Broncos (+8) have turned the keys over to rookie QB Drew Lock and he led the biggest upset of the weekend with a surprising 38-24 win on the road over the Houston Texans. It was a surprise going by pregame preview, and the line, only. If you watched the game, it was a thorough beatdown in favor of the visitors. The Broncos fired out to a 21-0 lead with 11:24 to go in the second quarter, as the Broncos had two TD passes for Lock and a 70-yard fumble recovery for touchdown. They took a surprising 38-3 lead at halftime, and they held a 38-3 lead at 9:15 of the third quarter before the Texans found the end zone midway through the third. The Broncos are 2-0 SU/ATS with Lock under center, and they're 5-1 ATS across the past six with the over 4-1 in the past five outings. Denver is also 7-2 ATS across the past nine contests.

Total Recall

-- There were three games with totals of 48 or greater -- Kansas City Chiefs-New England Patriots (49), Carolina Panthers-Atlanta Falcons (48) and the Sunday Night Football game between the Seattle Seahawks-Los Angeles Rams (48). Only one of those games managed to go 'over', as the Falcons beat up on the Panthers 40-20. Atlanta led just 3-0 after 15 minutes, but the Falcons ended up posting 10 or more points in each of the final three quarters, and the Panthers also hit double digits in the second and fourth. The Chiefs and Patriots appeared headed for a high-scoring affair, totaling 27 points in the first half, but there were a total of just 12 points in the final 30 minutes. The same held true in the Seahawks-Rams affair, with 24 total points on the board at halftime, but just 16 total points in the final two quarters.

There were three games at 42.5 or lower on Sunday, with Denver Broncos-Houston Texans (42.5), Los Angeles Chargers-Jacksonville Jaguars (42) and Washington Redskins-Green Bay Packers (42) saw the over hit in two of the outings, with the Chargers taking care of business themselves, 45-10. We mentioned the Broncos, and their prolific offensive effort above. Only the Redskins and Packers hit the under, totaling just 35 points. The Packers fired out of the chute at 14-0 after one quarter, but we had just two touchdowns and three field goals the rest of the way.

The Pittsburgh Steelers-Arizona Cardinals (43.5) ended up with 23 points in the first half, but just 17 points in the second half. A turnover in the end zone in the second half by QB Kyler Murray was rather costly, and he made some real rookie mistakes in this one which likely prevented this game from going over. That's five straight under results for the Steelers, seven in the past eight, and 10-3 in their 13 games overall this season.

The 'over' connected in the Thursday game between the Dallas Cowboys-Chicago Bears (43), while the Seahawks-Rams game on SNF went 'under'. We still have the New York Giants-Philadelphia Eagles (45) game to go. The 'over' is just 16-26 (38.1%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Looking Ahead - Division Matchups

-- The Eagles and Redskins tangle in D.C., a rematch of their Week 1 affair. The Eagles won that opener by a 32-27 at Lincoln Financial Field, failing to cover a 10-point number as the 'over' (44) easily hit. The Redskins saw the 'over' hit in their first three games this season, but the 'under' is 8-2 across the past 10, including 3-1 in the previous four at home.

-- The Texans and Tennessee Titans square off in a key AFC South Division battle, and it got that much more important following Houston's complete failure at home against the lowly Broncos. The Texans are just 2-5 ATS across the past seven games overall, and they're 3-9 ATS in the past 12 against teams with a winning overall mark. The Texans are also 1-4 ATS in the past five inside the division. For the Titans, they have covered four in a row, they're 3-0-1 ATS in the past four at home and they're 4-0-1 ATS in the past five as a favorite.

-- The Broncos and Chiefs do battle on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium at 1:00 p.m. ET, and suddenly Denver looks alive and well with Lock under center. The Chiefs looked alive and well going on the road and exacting revenge for their AFC Championship Game loss, topping the Patriots at Gillette. While Denver has been hot lately, they're still just 4-10 ATS in the past 14 games inside the division. The under is also 8-1-1 in the past 10 games inside the division. Denver is 1-7 ATS in the past eight meetings with the Chiefs, but 7-3 ATS in their past 10 trips to Kansas City. The over is 5-2-2 in the past nine meetings, including 3-0-1 in the past four at Arrowhead.

-- The Bears and Packers renew acquaintances at Lambeau Field. They met back in Week 1 on Thursday night with the Packers scratching out a 10-3 win in a defensive battle. The under is 3-3 at home, and 3-3 on the road, for the Packers so far this season, so not much to glean there. The under is 8-5 for the Bears this season, with the over/under at 3-3 on the road. The Bears have cashed in just two of the past nine overall, but they did cover at home as three-point 'dogs against the Cowboys on TNF last week. Still, they're 0-4 ATS in the past four on the road. The Packers are 5-1 ATS in the past six against teams with a winning record, but they're just 3-8 ATS in the past 11 inside the division.

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NFL Week 15 opening odds and early action: Rams-Cowboys line could quickly tighten
Patrick Everson

The Rams and Cowboys, both trying to gain spots in the NFC playoff field, square off Sunday. Dallas opened as 3-point home chalk, but SuperBook director John Murray expects that line to tighten.

With three weeks remaining in the regular season, playoff pursuits are heating up in the NFL. We check in on the opening lines and early action for four Week 15 matchups, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-3)

Dallas is flailing about after two straight losses from the favorite’s role, yet somehow still leads the NFC East at 6-7 SU (7-6 ATS). In the Week 14 Thursday nighter, the Cowboys dug themselves into a 24-7 hole at Chicago and couldn’t come all the way back, losing 31-24 as 3-point favorites.

Los Angeles is the defending NFC champion, but hasn’t lived up to that status this season. That said, the Rams (7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS) notched one of their most impressive wins of the season under the Sunday night spotlight, dumping Seattle 28-12 giving 1 point at home.

“We had this game Cowboys -3 before the Sunday night game, but the Rams looked so good that I think this line should reopen less than 3,” Murray said, noting the Rams-Cowboys line was taken off the board during the Sunday night game and will go back up Monday morning. “There will be a lot of support for both sides this week.”

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3)

Houston is kind of like the Dallas of the AFC South, given ample opportunity to seize the division and consistently failing to do so. The Texans (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS) went off as 8-point home favorites against a four-win Denver team, but trailed 31-3 at halftime and fell 38-24.

That loss allowed Tennessee to stay right with Houston in the AFC South race. The Titans (8-5 SU and ATS) were 3-point favorites at Oakland on Sunday and turned a 21-21 halftime tie into a 42-21 victory, moving to 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games.

“The Titans have been on a roll lately, and the line already moved from -3 (even) to -3 (-110),” Murray said. “The Texans laid an egg Sunday, but they have been much better on the road.”

Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1)

Pittsburgh is among the biggest surprises of the year, after Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown moved on in the offseason, and Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) was lost for the season in Week 2. In Week 14, the Steelers (7-5, 6-4-2) topped Arizona 23-17 laying 2.5 points on the road, their sixth win in the last seven games.

Likewise, Buffalo is arguably a surprise playoff contender, although its three-game SU and ATS upswing ended in Week 14. The Bills (9-4 SU, 8-4-1 ATS) fell to Baltimore 24-17 catching 6 points at home.

“We opened Steelers -1 and have been pushed up to -1.5,” Murray said. “The public will be all over the Steelers here. We will need the Bills.”

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-5.5)

Green Bay hardly looked impressive in Week 14, but Aaron Rodgers and Co. did enough to remain atop the NFC North. The Packers (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS) held off Washington 20-15 as hefty 13-point home favorites.

Chicago has fallen off in a huge way from its 2018-19 form, when it went 12-4 SU and a league-leading 12-4 ATS. However, the Bears (7-6 SU, 4-9 ATS) have won three in a row and four of five to climb above .500. And Chicago gets the benefit of a mini-bye this week, after beating Dallas 31-24 as 3-point home underdogs in the Week 14 Thursday nighter.

“We opened this game Packers -5.5 and are down to -5,” Murray said. “The Packers didn’t look good at all Sunday, and the Bears are always a popular public side, so there should be support for both in this game.”

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301NY JETS -302 BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game in the last 3 seasons.

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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 15

Thursday, December 12

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NY JETS (5 - 8) at BALTIMORE (11 - 2) - 12/12/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NFL

Week 15

Trend Report


Thursday, December 12

Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games at home
Baltimore is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing NY Jets
Baltimore is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing NY Jets
Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against NY Jets
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
New York Jets
NY Jets is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 games
NY Jets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
NY Jets is 6-17 SU in its last 23 games
NY Jets is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
NY Jets is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games on the road
NY Jets is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Baltimore
NY Jets is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Baltimore
NY Jets is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore

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NFL

Week 15

Jets (5-8) @ Ravens (11-2)— Baltimore won its last nine games, covering six of last seven; Ravens are 4-9 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite, 1-4 TY. Three of their last four games stayed under the total. Baltimore was held under 300 yards in last two games (vs 49ers/Bills), converting only 6-21 on 3rd down. Jets won four of their last five games, after a 1-7 start; Gang Green gave up only two TD’s on 32 drives their last three games, but Miami tried eight FG’s against them LW. Ravens won 7 of last 8 series games, with favorites 7-1 ATS; Jets won last meeting 24-16 (-2) three years ago, lost last five visits here (1-4 ATS), with last visit in ’13. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 2-9-1 ATS; AFC East road underdogs are 5-4-1 ATS.

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NFL
Dunkel

Week 15


Thursday, December 12

NY Jets @ Baltimore

Game 301-302
December 12, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
125.103
Baltimore
148.249
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 23
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 14 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-14 1/2); Over

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Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 15 odds: Wait for the Brady bashing to begin before betting this total
Jason Logan

Tom Brady and the Patriots are struggling to meet their lofty standards this season, averaging only 17 points over their last three games.

Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team but betting the best number.

Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL Week 15 board, so download the new Covers Live App and punch these odds into your line alerts.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: CHICAGO BEARS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (-5, 41)

These NFC North rivals do battle at Lambeau Field, with the Packers opening at the dead number of -5 hosting a Bears team on a three-game winning streak. While Chicago has feasted on a high-fat diet during this span, it did dominate Dallas last Thursday night.

The big turnaround is the offense, which is averaging 5.7 yards per play during this streak – a full yard higher than the Bears’ season average. Chicago has scored 19, 24, and 31 points in those wins, picking up steam ahead of this important divisional game.

Some books have already moved to Green Bay -4.5 while others are discounting the juice on Packers -5. If you like the Bears, grab them now because bookmakers will move through the dead numbers much faster and we could see this sitting -4 or -3.5 by Sunday.

SPREAD TO BET LATER: HOUSTON TEXANS AT TENNESSEE TITANS (-3, 49.5)

The Titans are the hottest team in the NFL with a sudden surge on offense since Week 10. Tennessee has won four in a row with a combined 150 points scored in that span. To put that uptick into perspective, the Titans scored a combined 169 points from Week 1 to Week 9, and 43 of those points came in a Week 1 win over Cleveland.

Houston’s roller-coaster ride continues, following a big win over New England with a pure stinker versus Denver. The Texans rank 25th in defensive DVOA at FootballOutsiders and hit the road for the first time since Week 11 for what will be the first of two meetings with Tennessee over the next three weeks.

If you like Houston here, take your time and see if you can get that oh-so valuable half-point hook at +3.5. The Titans are turning heads and while some books are taking money on the underdog, there could be a heavy public push closer to the weekend. If you're skeptical, take the field goal now. If you're greedy, wait for the hook.

TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 37 BUFFALO BILLS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Two of the better defenses in the NFL butt heads on Sunday Night Football with these teams each vying for a Wild Card ticket to the postseason in the AFC. Books opened the Over/Under at 37 points and early money is coming in on the Under, pushing the total down to 36.5 at some books.

This total sits among the lowest of the 2019 season, but for good reason The Bills just checked the high-powered Ravens to only 24 points and that defense gave them a chance to win the game in the final minutes. They didn’t pull it off but that effort proved this Buffalo stop unit is for real after crushing some cupcake foes earlier in the year.

The Steelers have seen a subtle upgrade on offense with Devlin “Duck” Hodges under center but the backbone of this squad is the stop unit, which has limited its last five opponents to an average of only 12.8 points per game. If you like the Under, jump in the pool now and collect as many points as you can.

TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 40.5 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS

Boy, the Patriots offense has fallen off. But no matter how bad things are for Tom Brady & Co. they should still be able to hang a healthy dose of scoring on the Bengals' 31st-ranked defense. Hell, even if Brady and the offense don’t find the end zone much, this New England defense is no stranger to paydirt and Cincy has coughed the ball up 23 times this season.

The Bengals, on the other hand, have enjoyed a slight resurgence with veteran QB Andy Dalton back at the helm. Cincinnati has scored 19 and 22 points the past two games after posting efforts of 10, 10, 13 and 10 points in the four games prior.

If you like the Over, pump the breaks on your bet and see if you can get something a little lower. A few books have discounted the juice on the Over, with early play on the Under so a move to 40 or 39.5 could be on the way, especially with the media making a big fuss over Brady’s fall from grace.

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Tech Trends - Week 15
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Dec. 12

N.Y. JETS at BALTIMORE (FOX, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Ravens have covered 6 of last 7 this season, though are only 2-4 vs. line at home. Jets have won 4 of last 5 outright but still just 5-8 overall vs. number this term.
Tech Edge: Ravens, based on team trends.

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NFL's Top ATS Teams:

t1. Steelers 9-4 ATS
t1. Rams 9-4
t3. Bills 8-4-1 ATS
t3. Niners 8-4-1
t5. Chiefs 8-5 ATS
t5. Broncos 8-5
t5. Saints 8-5
t5. Packers 8-5
t9. Titans 7-5-1 ATS
t9. Cardinals 7-5-1