Service Plays Tuesday 12/10/19

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Great Lakes Sports (via Northcoast)

3* Butler +5

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Robert Ferringo cbb



This BYU play was going to be my 8-Unit Play, but only if I could get it at 6.5 or 7.0. Still like the play a lot, though, as I see a double-digit game.

6-Unit Play. Take #618 BYU (-8) over Nevada (9 p.m., Tuesday, Dec. 10)
These two teams played in last year's season opener, with Nevada earning an 86-70 win at home. Now, on the surface it looks like BYU went to Nevada and was blown out. But that's actually not what happened at all. First of all, Nevada was a Top 10 team last year in the preseason. Second, the game was tied at halftime. Third, BYU only shot 6-for-31 from 3-point range in that game. The shot just 63.2 percent from the free throw line and 37.7 percent from the field, so they didn't play that well. Fourth, Yoeli Childs, BYU's biggest and best player, picked up his fourth foul just a minute into the second half, which completely changed the game. Well now it is time for payback. Nevada lost its top three scorers (and five of its top six) and went from one of the most cohesive teams in the country to one of the least. Nevada has a new head coach, a bunch of new players and they are still finding their way a bit. The Wolfpack has won five straight games. But all of that has come against weak competition, with not a single team rated in the Top 100. This is their second straight road game, and this is going to be by far the toughest venue and toughest team they have faced all season. Nevada has lost to the three best teams they've faced this year (Utah, USC and Davidson). And they got bombed by 20 in their one tough road game (at Davidson).
Then there's BYU. These guys destroyed UNLV by 33 over the weekend. They have an outstanding home court advantage and they are playing with revenge in this game. The Cougars already have some impressive wins, including a true road win over Houston and double-digit wins over UCLA and Virginia Tech. They lost to Utah last week, but that game was a fluke. It was on the road and BYU actually led by 16 points with 14 minutes left.
Here's the key: BYU has accomplished pretty much everything this year without its best player, Yoeli Childs. Childs is a 6-8 beast of a forward and a future NBA player. He's legit, and he had to sit out the first six games of the year because of an NCAA suspension. However, he's back, he's not rusty at all, and he is the best player on the floor for either team. Toss in transfer Jake Toolson, who wasn't with the Cougars last year, and this is a much better BYU team than the one that went to Reno last year. They have a new coach and a new, aggressive approach and I think it will be on full display tonight.

1-Unit Play. Take #610 Arkansas-Little Rock (-4.5) over Tennessee State (7:30 p.m., Tuesday, Dec. 10)
A worse Little Rock team went on the road and hammered Tennessee State last year. TSU is a bit better this season. However, they haven't been good in true road games and this is still a group that is just 12-24 against D-I competition the last two seasons.

1-Unit Play. Take #619 Northern Iowa (+9.5) over Colorado (9 p.m., Tuesday, Dec. 10)

I like this Colorado team. They are legit. Tyler Bey and McKinley Wright are an excellent 1-2 punch and this team should definitely be a factor in the Pac-12 this year. However, I don't think that they are going to blow out Northern Iowa here. The Buffs are coming off a 14-point loss at Kansas last Saturday and they are looking ahead to a rivalry matchup with Colorado State on Friday. Smack in the middle they are a double-digit favorite against a scrappy Northern Iowa squad. UNI is 8-1 on the season. They play slow and they turn games in to grinders. Their only loss was to West Virginia on a neutral court by five points and I think that they can be competitive here as well.

2-Unit Play. Take #622 Colorado State (-7) over South Dakota State (9 p.m., Tuesday, Dec. 10)
This South Dakota State team has already exceeded my expectations. I thought they would be one of the worst teams in the Summit League this year. They've actually been more competitive against teams like Arizona and Indiana than I thought they would be. But they are still a bad team. And I don't even think they are going to show up tonight. This is a team that only used seven guys last year. And two of them - Mike Daum and David Jenkins - combined for 45 of the team's 85 points per game. SDSU lost its top four scorers and five guys from that seven-man rotation. They're beat. They are young, they are small, and they are going to get rolled here. Colorado State is not good. But they have a beast in the middle in Nico Carvacho and they have a strong home court advantage. The Rams have handled some teams that are certainly better than SDSU (Omaha, LMU, and Washington State) and they should be able to do it again. CSU is off back-to-back losses, albeit to solid opponents. And they should be in rebound mode here.

2-Unit Play. Take #627 Louisville (-6) over Texas Tech (7 p.m., Tuesday, Dec. 10)
Texas Tech is still a solid squad and Chris Beard is one of the best coaches in the country. However, this Red Raiders team has lost three straight games - all against teams that are worse than Louisville. The Red Raiders lack the top-end talent that they had last year and they are still a little shorthanded without freshman Jahmi'us Ramsey. Louisville is the No. 1 team in the country for a reason. They already five Top 100 wins and they thrashed a fellow Top 5 team, Michigan, by 15 points just last week. They are tough, they are experienced and they are big. I think that they will teach Tech another less here.

3-Unit Play. Take #630 Connecticut (+2) over Indiana (9:30 p.m., Tuesday, Dec. 10)
I think that the wrong team is favored in this game. I know that Connecticut has some holes in its roster. They struggle from the field and from deep at times. However, I think Danny Hurley has this team on the right path and they really are starting to play better. Connecticut has a solid home win over a good Florida team. They blew out Miami and they should've beaten Xavier over the Thanksgiving break. Indiana really hasn't done much to impressive me. This is only their second time playing outside the cozy confines of Bloomington. The first was last Saturday. It didn't go well. They lost by 20 by a mediocre Wisconsin team, getting absolutely bombed 84-64. This game is on a neutral site, but it won't be that neutral, as there will almost certainly be more Connecticut fans in attendance here. The Huskies have started to settle in now that James Bouknight is eligible. He gives them a third guard behind veterans Al Gilbert and Christian Vital. The Huskies have nice size across the front line and they bring two 6-8 forwards off the bench. They have everything a team needs and they can go nine-deep when they need to. Size won't bother the Hoosiers. But we really don't know what they have to work with out of the backcourt because, again, they haven't played anyone. Indiana's schedule is ranked in the 300's and, again, this is just their second game outside of Assembly Hall. IU was terrible on the road last year, going just 4-10 outside of Bloomington. I think the Huskies are the better team and I think they will prove it here.

2-Unit Play. Take #8260 Davidson (-16.5) over Coppin State (7 p.m., Tuesday, Dec. 10)
I have no idea why this number has been dropping. Davidson is starting to play better after a slow start. These guys have played an absolutely brutal schedule so far this season, playing more than half of their games against Top 100 opponents from major conferences. They've only stepped down in class twice. They beat UNC-Wilmington by 38 and they beat Fairfield by 11. This Coppin State team lost by 32 at Virginia Tech, the only Top 80 team they have faced prior to the Wildcats. And I think that Davidson is better than the Hokies. Davidson can pick its score in this game, and if they want to win by 25+ they are more than capable.

These are all 5-point teasers:
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #618 BYU (-8) over Nevada (9 p.m.) AND Take #8260 Davidson (-11.5) over Coppin State (7 p.m.)

1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #630 Connecticut (+7) over Indiana (9:30 p.m.) AND Take #622 Colorado State (-2) over South Dakota State (9 p.m.)

1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #627 Louisville (-1) over Texas Tech (7 p.m.) AND Take #8260 Davidson (-11.5) over Coppin State (7 p.m.)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GREG SHAKER | CBB TOTAL TUE, 12/10/19 - 8:00 PM
616 Princeton / 615 Monmouth Under 139.0 Bookmaker

triple-dime bet
Analysis:
We use 3 CBB Models, all developed differently to pick different ways. They help us SPOT Potential Totals and all 3 have agreed that this number is too high. It is not the only thing we use but it is a starting point. We also use techniques that as far as I know have not yet been discovered by others including books. While these are not fail proof techniques they have been very profitable over the last few years. We also use offensive and defensive efficiency numbers, pace, projected pace, venue trends, league and division trends, injuries, along with other more "Standard" Handicapping Principles to get our final number and possibly make a play rated at 1* 2* and 3*.


Strong trending here with the Tigers going UNDER last 4 home games and there are a couple of things to know about Princeton that our Database Guy has discove‰red. They DO PLAY Better D on their home court and they DO PLAY a slower pace. Overall they are ranked #280 for Tempo out of 353 D1 Teams but that ranking has been skewed upward when they travel. Both teams have played OVER their last 2 and Odds Makers have reacted to that with a higher than usual number for these squads. The visitors are about average tempo (#173) but when they travel, and especially when they do after 3 or more consecutive home games, their shooting % drops significantly and part of the reason in this situation they are 6-1 UNDER. They also tend to play their opponents pace which is this situation is good for us. We have other factors we have considered and believe this to be a solid betting opp. All 3 Models Concur. You can play 3* here at your best number and down to 134.5..


Pick Made: Dec 10 2019 6:53AM PST


GREG SHAKER | CBB TOTAL TUE, 12/10/19 - 7:00 PM
604 Temple / 603 St. Joseph's Under 146.0 Southpoint

dime bet
Analysis:
‡1* Play at your best number..UNDER

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Indian Cowboy CBB 19-13-1 +20.7 Units

6-Unit Play. #627. Take Under 127 Louisville vs. Texas Tech (Tuesday @ 7pm est)

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Jason Sharpe nba 12-10
4 Unit Under-223-Knicks Game

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Miller locks

7:00 pm est ncaab
maryland vs. Penn state

pick: Penn state (-104)

risk: 11 units

7:05 pm est nba
washington wizards vs. Charlotte hornets

pick: Charlotte hornets +2.5 (-104)

risk: 11 units

9:00 pm est ncaab
butler vs. Baylor

pick: Baylor -5.5 (-110)

risk: 11 units

10:05 pm est nba
new york knicks vs. Portland trail blazers

pick: New york knicks +9 (-104)

risk: 11 units

[Gobigo]

Anyone with Essler or Spartan

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Clev Insider

Worst stretch of our career. Not even close. Coming off 5 straight WINNING months, this has been a December to forget so far. It will turn, hang in there. A 0-4 -51 unit day yesterday. NFL is now 44-28 +132 units on the season. NCAAF now sits at 39-50 -174 units. NHL is now 40-37 -2.5 units. NBA is now 24-28 -68 units. NCAAB now sits at 24-22 -2 units.

NBA
Knicks +9
76ers -4

NCAAB
Saint Joseph's +11.5
Texas Tech +6

NHL
Panthers ML (-110)
Flames ML (+115)

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Bezobets

NCAA Basketball: Penn State ML @ 1.952/-105 (3 Units)
NCAA Basketball: Louisville -6 @ 1.901/-111 (2 Units)

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Worlds Worst Picker CBB
peabody likes:
Penn st
Louisville
Butler super pick

Fade plays are:
Maryland
Texas Tech
Baylor super pick

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Vernon Croy
4 Unit Mia -9

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Tony George
4 Unit Philly -4

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Alan Harris
4 Unit Philly -4

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Strike Point Sports
2 Unit NY +9

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Indian Cowboy
3 Unit wash -2.5