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ATLANTA +11
ATLANTA @ SAN FRANCISCO | 12/15 | 4:25 PM EST
12:03 PM
Letdowns are uncommon in the NFL. Here is a potential exception. San Francisco just staggered through two harrowingly tight games far from home: a loss at Baltimore, a win at New Orleans. Now comes Atlanta, which is better than its record (4-9) suggests. The Falcons’ three outright Ws since their bye have come by a combined 63 points. There were a pair of defeats, but one came against New Orleans. The 49ers have not covered in their last four games against sub-.500 foes. Take Atlanta.
38-19-3 IN LAST 60 NFL PICKS | +1705
4-1 IN LAST 5 ATL ATS PICKS | +291
UNDER 40
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON | 12/15 | 1:00 PM EST
11:56 AM
Philadelphia nearly ran out of receivers on Monday, and a backup QB offered to pitch in at the position. WR Alshon Jeffery (ankle), the best of the bunch, is out this weekend. OT Lane Johnson (foot) is iffy. Washington takes the field minus top RB Derrius Guice (knee). Neither team is an offensive heavyweight at full strength, so the defenses should dominate. The Eagles have been Under in four of the last five, and the Redskins similarly have been at 80 percent Under in the past 10. Take the Under.
38-19-3 IN LAST 60 NFL PICKS | +1705
4-0 IN LAST 4 WAS O/U PICKS | +400
MINNESOTA -2.5
MINNESOTA @ L.A. CHARGERS | 12/15 | 4:05 PM EST
YESTERDAY 3:19 PM
Rule of thumb on the Chargers: Go with them on the road and against them at home. Their home-field advantage is minimized by crowds that often are evenly split, as indicated by a 7-18 ATS trend, and Minnesota might have more fans at this one. Vikings QB Kirk Cousins has been sneaky good, and big-threat WR Adam Thielen (hamstring) is expected back after a four-game absence. Quite a small spread for teams with vasty different records.
38-20-3 IN LAST 61 NFL PICKS | +1595
7-3-1 IN LAST 11 MIN ATS PICKS | +374
11-7-1 IN LAST 19 LAC ATS PICKS | +327
UNDER 48.5
SEATTLE @ CAROLINA | 12/15 | 1:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 3:13 PM
Both teams have piled up Overs this season, but this number is a tad high - especially with each club dealing with injuries on offense. The certain absence of RB Rashaad Penny (knee) puts a crimp in Seattle’s run-first approach. For Carolina, TE Greg Olsen has not exited concussion protocol and T Greg Little (ankle) is ailing. The Seahawks have impressed on the road, particularly on trips to the Eastern time zone. This marks their fifth this season, so the offense could be dragging a bit.
38-20-3 IN LAST 61 NFL PICKS | +1595
5-1 IN LAST 6 SEA O/U PICKS | +390
UNDER 41.5
NEW ENGLAND @ CINCINNATI | 12/15 | 1:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 2:18 PM
It’s a rock-bottom total for a team led by Tom Brady, but it’s deserving. New England’s offense has played as if it's in quicksand lately, averaging 18.6 points over the last five games, while Cincinnati’s has been listless all season without WR A.J. Green. The Patriots have been Under in six of their last eight on the road and 18 of 25 overall. The Bengals are on a 12-4 Under run. If snow or rain appears a day earlier than the forecast suggests, the offenses would face another impediment.
38-20-3 IN LAST 61 NFL PICKS | +1595
7-4 IN LAST 11 CIN O/U PICKS | +267
TENNESSEE -3
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE | 12/15 | 1:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 2:14 PM
Since QB Ryan Tannehill was elevated to starter, the Titans are 6-1. With considerable help from RB Derrick Henry, they have averaged 37.5 points over the last four weeks as Tannehill became the second QB to record a passer rating of at least 130 in such a stretch. Houston can score in bunches, too, but its defense has backtracked without DE J.J. Watt while Tennessee's ranks in the middle of the pack.
38-20-3 IN LAST 61 NFL PICKS | +1595
10-4 IN LAST 14 TEN ATS PICKS | +557
A CBS Sports NFL editor, R.J. twice has cashed huge in the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest. In 2017 he tied for 18th out of 2,748 contestants with a 52-29-4 mark against the spread. In 2015 he tied for 39th out of 1,727 entries with a 51-32-2 record. R.J. consistently crushes the NFL for SportsLine members: All-time he's 265-218-22 on ATS picks, returning $2,335 to $100 players. R.J. has many years of experience analyzing NFL statistics and trends, beginning with Super Bowl XXV.
GREEN BAY -4.5
CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY | 12/15 | 1:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 6:32 PM
This line has steamed toward the Bears in the early going, and it's gotten to a point now where I think there's value on the Packers. They're typically a great home team in this part of the year, going 21-5 straight up since 2009, with Aaron Rodgers playing a full game in just two of those five losses. The Packers defense has enough talent to limit a suddenly solid Mitchell Trubisky, and the Packers run game should provide enough production to get the score into the 20s. I think the Packers win by six or seven.
24-13-1 IN LAST 38 NFL PICKS | +969
31-6 IN LAST 37 GB ATS PICKS | +2427
26-13-1 IN LAST 40 CHI ATS PICKS | +1201
BUFFALO +2
BUFFALO @ PITTSBURGH | 12/15 | 8:20 PM EST
YESTERDAY 6:29 PM
I have some worries about the Steelers offense, as they appeared not to trust Devlin Hodges attacking downfield against a bad Arizona secondary. If you're willing to self-limit your offensive game plan, a good defense like that in Buffalo will make you pay. The elite Steelers defense thrives on turnovers, but Buffalo has done a great job protecting the ball with just three giveaways in its llast eight games. Though this is in danger of being a look-ahead spot for the Bills with the Patriots on deck, I trust their coaching staff to keep the team focused and get this win.
24-13-1 IN LAST 38 NFL PICKS | +969
18-10 IN LAST 28 PIT ATS PICKS | +685
11-6-1 IN LAST 18 BUF ATS PICKS | +443
L.A. CHARGERS +2.5
MINNESOTA @ L.A. CHARGERS | 12/15 | 4:05 PM EST
YESTERDAY 2:46 PM
The Vikings seem like they're rolling, but they've covered just two of their last six. They also struggle on the road, going 3-4 ATS and SU on the year. The Chargers have been dominating opponents statistically for weeks but often find different ways to lose. But this is a healthier Chargers team that is about to hit its stride, and with Derwin James back, I believe they'll be able to slow down Kirk Cousins. The Vikings defense hasn't been as dominant as in recent years either, and Philip Rivers can have some success against them. With the Vikings in a clear lookahead spot with Green Bay on deck, this game has prime upset potential.
24-14-1 IN LAST 39 NFL PICKS | +858
29-8-3 IN LAST 40 MIN ATS PICKS | +1999
2-1 IN LAST 3 LAC ATS PICKS | +82
TENNESSEE -3
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE | 12/15 | 1:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 2:17 PM
The Titans are clearly the better team right now, with wins in six of their last seven and double-digit wins in their last three. DVOA also highlights a massive gap between these teams, with the Titans 22.7 percentage points better in their weighted formula. The Houston defense has fallen apart and now ranks 27th in DVOA and bottom two in both third down and red zone percentage. At home against a defense playing like that, Ryan Tannehill should continue to roll, and with the Titans defense ranking seventh in points per game, they should offer enough resistance for the home team to cover.
24-14-1 IN LAST 39 NFL PICKS | +858
22-15 IN LAST 37 TEN ATS PICKS | +534
UNDER 49
L.A. RAMS @ DALLAS | 12/15 | 4:25 PM EST
WED 12/11
The Rams defense has been fantastic of late aside from when they faced the unique Ravens offense, and as a result they've cashed the Under in seven of their last eight games. The Cowboys look a bit lost after losing back-to-back games as favorites, and though their defense could make this Under look foolish on its own, I think the Rams offense might come back to earth a little bit this week after a couple of elite performances. This play is about trusting an Under team to do it again with a high total.
24-14-1 IN LAST 39 NFL PICKS | +858
4-0 IN LAST 4 LAR O/U PICKS | +400
OAKLAND -6.5
JACKSONVILLE @ OAKLAND | 12/15 | 4:05 PM EST
WED 12/11
One of these teams is playing its last home game in front of a passionate fan base before leaving Oakland presumably forever. The other one looks like it's quit on the season, with the Jaguars getting blown out by at least 17 points in five straight. Even with the Raiders' recent issues, you can't make this line high enough for me to not lay the points. I worry about a bad Raiders secondary letting Jacksonville in through the back door, but their lead may be big enough to not even matter. The smartest bet is likely Raiders first half, but I'll trust them to get it done over 60 minutes too.
24-14-1 IN LAST 39 NFL PICKS | +858
8-4 IN LAST 12 JAC ATS PICKS | +357
8-4 IN LAST 12 OAK ATS PICKS | +349
MIAMI +3.5
MIAMI @ N.Y. GIANTS | 12/15 | 1:00 PM EST
WED 12/11
How can the Giants be favored against anyone right now, especially laying more than a field goal? They collapsed in the second half against an Eagles team that has had issues, one the Dolphins beat the prior week. Miami is 7-2 ATS since Ryan Fitzpatrick rejoined the lineup, while the Giants have lost nine straight. The bearded one can throw it all over this awful Giants defense, one that shouldn't be trusted to hold onto a lead in the second half if they have one. Make sure you jump on this now and get the hook while you can.
24-14-1 IN LAST 39 NFL PICKS | +858
10-4 IN LAST 14 NYG ATS PICKS | +548
WASHINGTON +4.5
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON | 12/15 | 1:00 PM EST
WED 12/11
The Eagles have struggled in the past when Lane Johnson has been absent from the lineup, as appears will be the case this week after he suffered a high ankle sprain in the win over the Giants. With their injuries and how bad the coverage has been for Philly, I like fading them on the road, even against a Washington team without much of a homefield advantage. Washington has been keeping games close with their run-heavy approach, and as a result they've covered their last three games, winning two. They should keep this one close as well, with a field goal either way deciding it.
24-14-1 IN LAST 39 NFL PICKS | +858
19-13 IN LAST 32 WAS ATS PICKS | +465
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