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L.A. RAMS -1.5
L.A. RAMS @ DALLAS | 12/15 | 4:25 PM EST
10:43 AM
The Rams are getting healthy at the right time. RB Todd Gurley has carried the ball at least 19 times in three of their last four games. Los Angeles' defense has allowed 17 points or fewer in six of their last seven games and 12 or fewer in five of those contests. It has recorded 11 sacks in its last two games and ranks fourth in the NFL with 43. Dallas is 0-6 versus teams with a winning record.
8-5-1 IN LAST 14 NFL PICKS | +247
BUFFALO +1
BUFFALO @ PITTSBURGH | 12/15 | 8:20 PM EST
10:35 AM
Buffalo's defense ranks third in the league in yards allowed per play while Pittsburgh's is fifth. The Bills are 5-0 ATS on the road this season. Steelers QB Devlin Hodges will have a tougher time against Buffalo's defense than he did versus Cleveland and Arizona.
8-5-1 IN LAST 14 NFL PICKS | +247
2-1 IN LAST 3 PIT ATS PICKS | +88
KANSAS CITY -9.5
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY | 12/15 | 1:00 PM EST
10:28 AM
The Chiefs have clinched the AFC West and trail New England by one game for the No. 2 seed in the conference. Coach Andy Reid's team is 20-7 ATS versus division rivals over the last five years. Kansas City is 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS against teams with a losing record, as well as 4-1 ATS in its last five overall. QB Drew Lock, who makes his third start for the Broncos, has used his strong arm to make plays but forces throws like most young quarterbacks.
8-5-1 IN LAST 14 NFL PICKS | +247
5-1 IN LAST 6 KC ATS PICKS | +380
OVER 51
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE | 12/15 | 1:00 PM EST
10:22 AM
The Over is 7-0 in Tennessee's last seven games, all with Ryan Tannehill as the starting quarterback. Tannehill has been 5.5 points better than the average QB over those seven games. Texans QB Deshaun Watson has had seven really good starts, four really bad ones and two that were average. Houston's defense is ranked 26th, allowing 6.1 yards per play, while Tennessee's is 16th at 5.7. Both teams' pass defense rank in the bottom third of the league.
10-5-2 IN LAST 17 NFL O/U PICKS | +451
3-1 IN LAST 4 TEN O/U PICKS | +190
GREEN BAY -4.5
CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY | 12/15 | 1:00 PM EST
10:17 AM
The Packers have covered 13 of the last 18 in the rivalry while the Bears are 1-4 ATS in their five road games and 2-7 ATS in their last nine overall. At home, Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers is completing 65 percent of his passes for 8.3 yards per toss with 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions.
8-5-1 IN LAST 14 NFL PICKS | +247
UNDER 210.5
SACRAMENTO @ GOLDEN ST. | 12/15 | 8:30 PM EST
10:53 AM
The Kings are the slowest team in the NBA with just 97 possessions per game. Their defense is slightly better than their offense. The Under is 11-5 in Sacramento's last 16 contest. Golden State's average score in November was 105-119 but has been 100-106 this month. As they've slowed down the pace and improved defensively, the scores have been lower and the Warriors are more competitive. The Under is 7-3 in Golden State's last 10 games.
UNC-GREEN. +2.5
NC STATE @ UNC-GREEN. | 12/15 | 3:00 PM EST
10:59 AM
It isn't very often a team from the Southern Conference gets to host an ACC team, as well as an in-state rival. The rivalry really only goes one way as NC State has at least 10 other teams it would consider a rival before UNC Greensboro. The Spartans are 6-3 ATS, allowing just 55 points per game. Their defense ranks in the top 40 while NC State's is in the low 100's in terms of points per possession.
OAKLAND -6.5
JACKSONVILLE @ OAKLAND | 12/15 | 4:05 PM EST
YESTERDAY 7:06 PM
The Jaguars were once competitive this season with Gardner Minshew, but then Nick Foles got healthy and took back the starting job. And then Minshew soured when they brought him back to start. They've lost five straight, the last two with Minshew. The Raiders come in losing their last three, looking extremely bad in all of them, but Sunday is their last game in Oakland. Whatever they have left in the tank will be used. Raiders to cover.
2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL PICKS | +89
4-3 IN LAST 7 JAC ATS PICKS | +60
OVER 49
CLEVELAND @ ARIZONA | 12/15 | 4:05 PM EST
FRI 12/13
The Cardinals have had some offensive problems over the last two weeks and are riding a six-game losing streak. But I like this battle of Heisman Trophy-winning QBs from Oklahoma to feature smooth-running offenses and lots of points. Arizona is allowing 30 points per game at home this year. Over is the top play here.
21-13 IN LAST 34 NFL O/U PICKS | +670
3-1 IN LAST 4 ARI O/U PICKS | +190
NEW ENGLAND -10
NEW ENGLAND @ CINCINNATI | 12/15 | 1:00 PM EST
FRI 12/13
The Patriots have had offensive issues in their last five games, losing the last two while going 0-3 ATS in their last three. But they should get better against Cincinnati, which allows 27 points and 183 rushing yards per game. The Bengals have covered in only two of their last 12 home games. New England QB Tom Brady has lost three straight contests just once in his career (2002). I’m on the Patriots.
2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL PICKS | +89
SEATTLE -6
SEATTLE @ CAROLINA | 12/15 | 1:00 PM EST
WED 12/11
The Panthers have lost five straight games and I have no explanation for why QB Kyle Allen has suddenly taken a nosedive off a cliff after winning the first five starts of his career. He started 5-1 this season, and now drops five straight? Apparently, defensive coordinators know what he likes to do and what he doesn’t after film study. And they're also slowing Christian McCaffrey. Seattle bounces back off a loss and gets the cover.
2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL PICKS | +89
9-4 IN LAST 13 CAR ATS PICKS | +463
OVER 47
TAMPA BAY @ DETROIT | 12/15 | 1:00 PM EST
WED 12/11
Lions rookie third-string QB David Blough will get his third straight start. He struggled last week at Minnesota one week after starting out strong on Thanksgiving. The Bears' and Vikings' defenses will make a lot of QBs look ordinary, but not the Buccaneers' defense. They allow everyone to score at will, which is why 10 of their last 11 games have gone over the total. The Lions have gone over in five of six home games. Over is the play.
21-13 IN LAST 34 NFL O/U PICKS | +670
7-2 IN LAST 9 DET O/U PICKS | +483
SEATTLE -6
SEATTLE @ CAROLINA | 12/15 | 1:00 PM EST
11:39 AM
Just as last week was a big spot for the Rams, the Seahawks enter Sunday looking for a big win after their worse loss of the season. Seattle is 4-2 ATS on the road (6-1 straight up) this season and gets an ailing Carolina team with its backup QB on a downward spiral, its star RB getting bottled up and its veteran TE sidelined. It could be close in the first half, but this should be a game where the Seahawks pound Chris Carson early and use their weapons in the second half for a comfortable road win. Decent defensive test for Seattle with San Francisco coming up in two weeks.
33-23 IN LAST 56 NFL ATS PICKS | +754
4-0 IN LAST 4 SEA ATS PICKS | +400
3-1 IN LAST 4 CAR ATS PICKS | +190
GREEN BAY -4.5
CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY | 12/15 | 1:00 PM EST
11:17 AM
The Packers have not looked great as of late, but I think people are putting too much stock in the Bears beating the Giants, Lions and quickly-collapsing Cowboys -- two of them in Chicago. Green Bay is at home, and while cold, it should be a snow-free day allowing Aaron Rodgers plenty of opportunity to throw the ball. Still, Aaron Jones is where I think the Packers have their greatest advantage. Definitely comfortable with Green Bay covering in this spot.
33-23 IN LAST 56 NFL ATS PICKS | +754
8-4 IN LAST 12 CHI ATS PICKS | +364
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