Saturday 12-21-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-19-2019, 09:28 AM

Betting Recap - Week 15
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 15 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 8-6-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 7-8
Against the Spread 6-8-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 10-5

National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 123-77-1
Against the Spread 97-115-7

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 118-100-1
Against the Spread 92-120-7

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 109-109-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Falcons (+10, ML +425) at 49ers, 29-22
Jaguars (+7, ML +250) at Raiders, 20-16
Cardinals (+3, ML +140) at Browns, 38-24
Texans (+3, ML +140) at Titans, 24-21

The largest favorite to cover
Ravens (-17) vs. Jets, 42-21
Patriots (-10.5) at Bengals, 34-13
Chiefs (-9.5) vs. Broncos, 23-3
Eagles (-6.5) at Redskins, 37-27
Buccaneeers (-6) at Lions, 38-17

Bad Beat - Part 1

-- The Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) took on the Washington Redskins at FedEx Field, and the game started off harmlessly enough. The Redskins were leading 14-10 at halftime on their home field, looking to spoil the NFC East Division title and playoff dreams of their rivals. The Eagles struck for a touchdown in the third to re-take the lead 17-14. That's when the craziness started.

RB Adrian Peterson scored just seven seconds into the fourth to make it 21-17, and the teams traded touchdowns with TE Zach Ertz going to six to re-take the lead. The Redskins booted a pair of field goals to take a 27-24 lead, and that's how it looked like it might end. At the very least, the Redskins were going to hang on for the home cover. WR Greg Ward Jr. scored with :26 left to make it 31-27, and the Eagles were on their way to a win. However, the scoring wasn't over, as any Redskins side bettor already knows all too well. QB Dwayne Haskins fumbled, and with zeroes left on the clock it was LB Nigel Bradham returning the fumble for 47 yards to make it 37-27.

Bad Beat - Part 2

-- If you had the 'under' (50) in Atlanta Falcons-San Francisco 49ers, my condolences. At 5:15 to go in regulation there were just 36 total points on the board when the Falcons scored a rushing touchdown to cut the lead to 19-17. The 49ers booted a field goal at 1:48 to make it 22-17 in favor of the Niners.

With :02 left, the Falcons scored a touchdown, as QB Matt Ryan hit WR Julio Jones on a 5-yard connection to make it 23-22. Under bettors loved that they didn't even risk a two-point conversion or extra point, should the 49ers block a kick or return a fumble or interception for two points. So game over, right? Well, the 49ers tried a crazy series of lateral that went backwards, and you knew how this one was going. The 49ers chunked it, the Falcons scooped it up at the goal line and cashed in the six to push it over with zeroes on the clock. Two absolutely atrocious beats on the day. If you had the Redskins and the under in this game toge

Total Recall

-- There were five games with a total of 48.5 or greater -- Los Angeles Rams-Dallas Cowboys (48.5), Seattle Seahawks-Carolina Panthers (49), Cleveland Browns-Arizona Cardinals (49), Falcons-49ers (49.5 - see above) and the Houston Texans-Tennessee Titans (50.5). All but the Texans-Titans game ended up going over, and the AFC South battle probably would have gone over, too, if not for a scoreless first quarter. It was close.

The 'over' connected in the final Thursday game of the 2019 season between the New York Jets-Baltimore Ravens (44), with the over/under going 7-7 in the TNF game for the season. The Sunday nighter between the Buffalo Bills-Pittsburgh Steelers (37) was the lowest total on the board, and still wasn't even close to going over. We have the Monday nighter between the Indianapolis Colts-New Orleans Saints (46.5) still pending. The 'over' is just 17-28 (37.8%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Looking Ahead - Division Matchups

-- The Bills and Patriots battle at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. Buffalo is 7-0-1 ATS in the past eight games on the road, and 5-0-1 ATS in the past six as a road underdog. The Patriots are 42-19-3 ATS in their past 63 at Gillette, and 4-0 ATS in the past four appearance on a Saturday. In this series the road team is 20-8-1 ATS in the past 29 meetings, with the Bills 3-1-1 ATS in the past five trips to Foxboro.

-- The Rams and 49ers tangle, and San Francisco looks to recover after their shocking loss to Atlanta dropped them from a first-round bye in the playoffs into a wild-card position and a potential road game to kick off the playoffs. Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in the past six games inside the division, and they're 7-2 ATS in the past nine on the road. They were trampled in Dallas in Week 15, however. San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in the past six against winning teams, but just 7-18-1 ATS in the past 26 as a favorite and 2-7-1 ATS in the past 10 inside the division. The 49ers are 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings with the Rams, however, and the under is 5-1 in the past six meetings in the Bay Area.

-- The Giants and Redskins tangle in D.C. in a game with nothing on the line outside of pride. The bets cash the same, however. New York is 11-3 ATS in the past 14 on the road, while going 10-2 ATS in the past 12 as a road underdog. The Redskins are 2-7 ATS in the past nine at home, although they should have covered in Week 15 (see above). Ugh. The G-Men are 9-4 ATS in the past 13 meetings, while the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the past five in this series. The under is also 5-1 in the past six in this series, and 5-2 in the past seven at FedEx Field.

-- The Ravens can clinch the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC with a win over the Browns, who stunningly beat them back on Sept. 29 in Baltimore by a 40-25 score as the 'over' hit. The Ravens are 7-1 ATS in the past eight games overall, and they're 4-0 ATS in the past four on the road. The Browns are still barely alive for a playoff spot, but need to win out with help. The Browns are 3-0-1 ATS in the past four at home, but just 2-8-1 ATS in the past 11 at FirstEnergy Stadium vs. Ravens.

-- The Raiders and Chargers meet in Carson. Soon this will be Las Vegas vs. Los Angeles, which is still weird. The Raiders are 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, with the road team 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meeting. The under is 5-1 in the past six in this series.

-- The Cowboys are 16-5 ATS in the past 21 inside the NFC East, while the Eagles are 4-10 ATS in the past 14 at home while going 1-6 ATS in the past seven at home vs. Cowboys. The Eagles are also 0-4 ATS in the past four meetings overall. With the road team also 11-5 ATS in the past 16 meetings, all trends point to Dallas.

-- The Cardinals are 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven on the road, but just 1-4-1 ATS in the past six against winning teams. The Seahawks are 4-1-1 ATS in the past six overall, but they're just 2-5 ATS in the past seven at home. Arizona is 4-0 ATS in the past four trips to Seattle, and 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetings overall. The road team is 8-1-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings overall in the series.

-- The Packers and Vikings meet on Monday night. The Packers are 2-6 ATS in the past eight battles on MNF, while the Vikings are 2-11 ATS in the past 13 on Monday, so something's gotta give. In this series the Packers are 1-4 ATS in the past five trips to the Twin Cities, while the home team is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings. The under is 5-0 in the past five in Minnesota, while going 8-2 in the past 10 meetings overall, including a 21-16 win by the Packers in Week 2 at Lambeau.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-19-2019, 09:49 AM

Close Calls - Week 15
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread or total in the fourth quarter last week in Week 15 of the NFL regular season including two late defensive scores that made a great impact.

Baltimore Ravens (-17) 42, New York Jets 21 (44): The Ravens wrapped up this game with a 35-7 edge through three quarters but a blocked punt touchdown in the fourth put the Jets back in the conversation against the heavy underdog spread. A touchdown halfway through the fourth put the Jets within 21 after a successful two-point conversion and New York got the ball back at midfield with still five minutes remaining. On 4th-and-1 a Sam Darnold throw fell incomplete and Baltimore was able to run out the remaining clock with Robert Griffin III in the game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6) 38, Detroit Lions 17 (46): The Buccaneers stormed out to a 21-0 lead in this game but the Lions slowly climbed back in the picture, completing a long touchdown drive on the first play of the fourth quarter to trail by only seven on a spread that climbed as high as +6 by kickoff. Tampa Bay missed a field goal on its next possession as the Lions were a live upset threat but with about five minutes remaining David Blough was intercepted with a 70-yard return for a touchdown. The Lions had to go for it on 4th down short of midfield on its next drive and the Buccaneers added another score to pull away for a somewhat misleading 21-point final margin. Three fourth quarter touchdowns also shifted a possible ‘under’ with 34 points through three quarters to a clear ‘over’.

Philadelphia Eagles (-6½) 37, Washington Redskins 27 (38): The Redskins led at halftime and erased a three-point deficit through three quarters with an early fourth quarter touchdown run from Adrian Peterson for a four-point lead as a home underdog. The fourth quarter would feature 33 points to soar ‘over’ the total and Philadelphia was able to set-up next week’s NFC East clash by going in front with 26 seconds to go, leading by four for the largest lead of the game for the Eagles. That would change with no time on the clock however as in desperation mode just across midfield an attempted lateral wound up going the other way for a late Eagles touchdown to flip the spread result.

Green Bay Packers (-4½) 21, Chicago Bears 13 (40½): After a low-scoring first half the Packers went in front 21-3 with two third quarter scores. The Bears added a field goal early in the fourth and later a touchdown while forcing five consecutive Green Bay punts with only one first down allowed. Down eight the Bears had three late possessions ending in an interception, stopped on downs in Green Bay territory with a failed pass interference challenge, and then delivering an incredible final play that nearly shifted the spread and total results and could have sent the game to overtime. The Bears had one second on the clock from the Green Bay 34-yard-line and opted for a short pass rather than a deep throw to the end zone. Against loose coverage Tarik Cohen had a lateral back to Mitchell Trubisky who sent the ball to Jesper Horsted who rumbled inside the 10-yard-line. Horsted failed to send the ball back one more time even with two Bears with an opening down the sideline in what could have been a score for Chicago to set-up a possible tying two-point conversion.

Houston Texans (+3) 24, Tennessee Titans 21 (50½): The Texans had a 14-0 lead in the huge AFC North contest with some big momentum swings early in this game. Deshaun Watson was intercepted for a touchback on the opening drive but Houston would block a field goal attempt for a scoreless first quarter. The play of the game was a deflected Ryan Tannehill pass to the edge of the end zone deflecting for an interception and an 86-yard return to set-up a Houston touchdown. Up 14-0 Houston stopped the Titans on downs later in the first half but Tennessee managed to score back-to-back touchdowns to tie the game around an interception of Watson in the end zone to thwart another scoring opportunity. Houston would respond with a touchdown on the next drive and later a field goal to lead by 10 but Tennessee added a score just ahead of the two-minute-warning to stay in play while keeping those on the ‘over’ in the mix for a late miracle. The Titans wouldn’t get the ball back until just 17 seconds remained and Ryan Tannehill was sacked to end the threat, narrowly avoiding a potential defensive score.

Seattle Seahawks (-6) 30, Carolina Panthers 24 (49): The Seahawks seemed to be in complete control going up 30-10 with about seven minutes remaining in the game. Those on the ‘over’ and taking the points found late life however with the Panthers scoring with about five minutes remaining on a Christian McCaffrey run while the defense then forced a quick 3-and-out. Just over minute later the Panthers were in the end zone again to send the total ‘over’ while allowing many Carolina tickets to be cashed at +6½. The scoring stopped there as Seattle was able to take a knee to eventually burn over three minutes of clock, moving to the #1 spot in the NFC.

New York Giants (-3½) 36, Miami Dolphins 20 (46½): The Dolphins trailed by one late in the third quarter despite botching two early scoring opportunities with a missed field goal while being stopped on downs at the 10-yard-line as well. A false start pinned Miami deep and a safety followed while the Giants got a good kickoff return and scored a few plays later to turn a one-point edge into a 10-point edge in quick order. Miami’s offense disappeared from there and the Giants pulled away while a 10-7 game at halftime turned into a clear ‘over’ with 39 second half points.

Buffalo Bills (+1) 17, Pittsburgh Steelers 10 (37): The Steelers led 10-7 through three quarters as a very slight favorite but the second of eventually four Devlin Hodges interceptions handed the Bills a field goal to tie the game. Buffalo didn’t have a productive offensive game but Josh Allen led the Bills 70 yards in six plays in the middle of the fourth quarter with Buffalo surviving a fumble in the red zone. Down seven the Steelers had a new set of downs at the Buffalo 26-yard line with three minutes to go but went backwards with a penalty and a sack before a fourth down interception in the end zone. Hodges would be intercepted in the end zone again in the final seconds as the Bills defense came through to send Buffalo into the postseason.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+6½) 20, Oakland Raiders 16 (46½): Oakland appeared to have a good sendoff underway with a 16-3 lead at halftime though settling for three short field goals left the door open. The Jaguars added three in the final seconds of the third quarter to trail by 10 before the Raiders offense faltered in the fourth with a costly sack near midfield forcing a punt and then a missed field goal. The Jaguars would get two touchdowns from Gardner Minshew to Chris Conley with the go-ahead score coming with only 31 seconds to go. Oakland got a 33-yard pass interference call to have a reasonable shot late but the final two deep throws fell incomplete.

Atlanta Falcons (+10) 29, San Francisco 49ers 22 (49): The score was just 13-10 through three quarters in favor of the 49ers with the underdog points and the ‘under’ looking safe. San Francisco would score with 10 minutes remaining but missed the PAT in a key play with +10 a common number late in the week in this game. That wound up not mattering as the Falcons scored a touchdown with five minutes to go and San Francisco added a field goal after the two-minute warning for a five-point margin. Atlanta had a touchdown called back on review in the final seconds but on the final play Matt Ryan hit Julio Jones right at the goal line. Ruled short on the field, review gave Atlanta the score for the win. The Falcons did not add the conversion to lead 23-22 as the ‘under’ held but a disastrous 49ers kickoff return lateral situation after time expired would result in a fumble recovery in the end zone as Atlanta added six more points and the ‘over’ was cleared.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-19-2019, 09:50 AM

451LA RAMS -452 SAN FRANCISCO
LA RAMS are 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.

453BUFFALO -454 NEW ENGLAND
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) in road games in the current season.

455HOUSTON -456 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after 2 straight overs in the last 2 seasons.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-19-2019, 09:50 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 16

Saturday, December 21

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LA RAMS (8 - 6) at SAN FRANCISCO (11 - 3) - 12/21/2019, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 54-77 ATS (-30.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
LA RAMS are 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
LA RAMS are 94-125 ATS (-43.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS are 146-192 ATS (-65.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS are 74-107 ATS (-43.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS are 72-105 ATS (-43.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
LA RAMS are 44-65 ATS (-27.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
LA RAMS are 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 3-2 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (10 - 4) at NEW ENGLAND (11 - 3) - 12/21/2019, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 270-206 ATS (+43.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 270-206 ATS (+43.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 95-68 ATS (+20.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 207-151 ATS (+40.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 199-152 ATS (+31.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 130-88 ATS (+33.2 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 68-45 ATS (+18.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 129-92 ATS (+27.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-59 ATS (+26.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 65-41 ATS (+19.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games this season.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road lined games this season.
BUFFALO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 5-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (9 - 5) at TAMPA BAY (7 - 7) - 12/21/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-19-2019, 09:51 AM

NFL

Week 16

Trend Report

Saturday, December 21

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Tampa Bay's last 12 games
Tampa Bay is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Tampa Bay is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games at home
Houston Texans
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games
Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Houston is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games on the road

New England Patriots
New England is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
New England is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of New England's last 25 games
New England is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 games at home
New England is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New England's last 11 games at home
New England is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
New England is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games
Buffalo is 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Buffalo is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 9 games on the road
Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing New England
Buffalo is 2-16 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing on the road against New England

San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games
San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games at home
San Francisco is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing LA Rams
San Francisco is 15-7-1 SU in its last 23 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing LA Rams
San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams
Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Rams's last 9 games
LA Rams is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
LA Rams is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Rams's last 11 games on the road
LA Rams is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing San Francisco
LA Rams is 7-15-1 SU in its last 23 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
LA Rams is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
LA Rams is 3-7-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-19-2019, 09:52 AM

NFL

Week 16

Saturday’s games
Texans (9-5) @ Buccaneers (7-7)— Houston beat Titans 24-21 LW to grab one-game lead in AFC South; they host Titans next week. Texans won three of last four games, with all three wins by 6 or less points- they converted 23 of last 46 on 3rd down. Houston is 3-3 SU in true road games; they are underdog in all six games. Last four years, Texans are 0-3-1 as road favorites. Five of heir last seven games went under. Tampa Bay won its last four games, scoring 34.8 ppg; they threw ball for 913 yards last two weeks. Bucs are 2-3 SU at home TY; they’re 7-2 ATS in last nine games as a home dog. Houston won last three series games, all by 10+ points. AFC South non-divisional faves are 6-8 ATS this year, 2-1 on road; NFC South dogs are 10-10 ATS, 4-2 at home.

Bills (10-4) @ Patriots (11-3)—First place in AFC East is on line here. NE picked off four passes, blocked punt for TD in 16-10 (-7) Week 4 win at Buffalo; Patriots only TD drive was 50 yards. Bills outgained Patriots by 151 yards (375-224) but four turnovers are usually fatal. NE won 28 of last 31 series games; Bills are 6-3-1 ATS in last ten visits to Foxboro. Buffalo beat Steelers for first time in 20 years LW; they’re 6-1 SU on road TY, 4-0-1 ATS as a road underdog. Six of their last seven games stayed under. New England split its last six games after an 8-0 start; they’re +17 in turnovers their last nine games. Patriots are 23-11-3 ATS in last 27 games as a home favorite, 3-3 TY. Under is 9-5 in their games this year, 4-2 at home.

Rams (8-6) @ 49ers (11-3)— Rams went 56 yards for TD on first drive, gained 101 yards rest of day in 20-7 home loss to SF in Week 6; Rams had scored 42.7 ppg in winning previous three series games. Underdogs covered four of last five series games played here. LA split its last four games overall, giving up 45-44 points in the losses- they need win to stay alive in playoff hunt. Rams are 4-3 SU in true road games TY- in McVay era, they’re 4-1 ATS as a road underdog, 1-0 TY; seven of their last nine games stayed under. 49ers are coming off last-second home loss to Atlanta; they split their last six games after an 8-0 start. Niners are 5-2 SU at home TY, 3-4 ATS as a home favorite. Six of their last eight games went over the total.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-19-2019, 09:53 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 16

Saturday, December 21

Houston @ Tampa Bay

Game 455-456
December 21, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
137.963
Tampa Bay
132.366
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 5 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 3
51
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-3); Under

Buffalo @ New England

Game 453-454
December 21, 2019 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
136.754
New England
138.257
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 1 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 6 1/2
38 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+6 1/2); Over

LA Rams @ San Francisco

Game 451-452
December 21, 2019 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
134.177
San Francisco
136.555
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 2 1/2
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 6 1/2
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(+6 1/2); Over

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-19-2019, 09:54 AM

NFL Week 16 opening odds and early action: Cowboys a road favorite for key clash vs Eagles
Patrick Everson

Ezekiel Elliott and Dallas are tied atop the NFC East with Philadelphia, heading into a critical Week 16 contest. The Cowboys opened as 2.5-point road favorites against the division-rival Eagles.

The NFL playoff race shifts into high gear with key divisional battles in Week 16. We check in on opening odds and early action for four Week 16 games, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5)

Someone’s gotta win the NFC East, and this is the game that will likely decide who that someone is. Dallas put a three-game SU slide in the rearview mirror while climbing back to .500 in Week 15. The Cowboys (7-7 SU, 8-6 ATS) battered the Los Angeles Rams 44-21 as 1-point home underdogs.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia had to scrap and scrounge at three-win Washington, but also found its way back to .500. The Eagles (7-7 SU, 5-9 ATS) got a touchdown with 26 seconds remaining to take a 31-27 lead, then got a scoop-and-score on the final play of the game. That play killed ‘Skins bettors as Philly won 37-27 giving 10 points. It was the only moment all game that the Eagles were covering.

“Everyone will be on Dallas after its performance in the win over the Rams,” Murray said. “The Eagles escaped two weeks in a row against the awful Giants and Redskins. They will need to really up their game to beat Dallas here.”

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-7)

In the offseason, not many would have pegged Buffalo as having a chance to tie for the AFC East lead in Week 16, but that’s most certainly the case. The Bills (10-4 SU, 9-4-1 ATS) bested Pittsburgh 17-10 as 1-point road underdogs in the Sunday nighter and now have the best spread-covering mark in the league.

Defending Super Bowl champ New England halted a two-game SU and three-game ATS skid. The Patriots (11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS) played a lackluster first half at Cincinnati, taking a 13-10 lead just before the break, but went on to a 34-13 victory laying 10.5 points.

“Both teams are now in the playoffs but have playoff positioning to fight for,” Murray said of motiviations for this Saturday showdown. “The Patriots’ offense couldn’t do anything in their first meeting, and it doesn’t seem like much has changed for them on that side of the ball. We will be flooded with teasers and parlays of Patriots to 49ers.”

Per SuperBook policy, this game came off the board before the Bills-Steelers kickoff and will repost Monday morning.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)

San Francisco learned how quickly fates can change at this stage of the year, dropping from the NFC’s No. 1 seed to No. 5 on Sunday. The 49ers (11-3 SU, 8-5-1 ATS), coming off a great win at New Orleans, suffered a stunning home loss to Atlanta, 29-22 as healthy 10.5-point favorites.

In a crazy finish, the Niners allowed a TD with two seconds left to fall behind 23-22, then gave up a scoop-and-score while lateraling around on the ensuing kickoff to account for the final score. Which, oh by the way, made Over bettors delirious and Under bettors sick, with a total of 50.

Defending NFC champ Los Angeles did itself more harm than San Fran in Week 15, further wrenching its playoff hopes. The Rams went to Dallas as 1-point favorites and got boatraced 44-21, halting a 3-1 SU and ATS upswing. Sean McVay’s squad is still No. 7 in the NFC, but is two games out in the win column to current wild cards Minnesota and San Francisco.

“San Francisco is really banged up right now and just fell out of first place with a loss to the Falcons,” Murray said. “They need this game to stay in the hunt for a first-round bye. The book will want the Rams outright.”

This is another Saturday matchup, in prime time with an 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)

Green Bay will look to remain solo first in the NFC North in the final Monday night game of the season. In Week 15, the Packers (11-3 SU, 9-5 ATS) beat Chicago 21-13 giving 4 points at frigid Lambeau Field, where the current No. 2 seed hopes to spend some time in January.

However, Minnesota can tie its division rival with a victory in this prime-time contest. The Vikings (10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS) went off as 1-point road favorites against the Los Angeles Chargers and coasted to a 39-10 victory Sunday.

“The Packers really struggled on offense in their win over the Bears. They’ll need to be much better to beat Minnesota here,” Murray said. “The winner will likely take the division, and the loser will have to go on the road for three rounds in the postseason to get to the Super Bowl.”

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-19-2019, 09:55 AM

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 16 odds: Time to tackle the total for Raiders at Chargers
Jason Logan

This total of 47 points is the lowest Over/Under set for a game between Oakland at L.A./San Diego since 2015 and in their eight meetings during that stretch, these divisional foes have produced a 2-6 Over/Under mark.

Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team but betting the best number.

Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL Week 16 board.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: DALLAS COWBOYS (-2.5) AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

All the marbles in the NFC East are on the line when the Cowboys come to Philly to face the Eagles in Week 16. After Dallas destroyed the L.A. Rams at home Sunday and Philadelphia fumbled its way to a win over Washington, the public perceptions for these two rivals are heading in opposite directions.

The Cowboys opened as 2.5-point favorites on the road and early money is jumping on the visitor, with some books making a brief move to -3 and other juggling the juice on Eagles +2.5 trying to stir up action on the home side.

If you like Dallas to build on that Week 15 win and take the NFC East title, get it under the key number of a field goal now. Books are expecting to need Philadelphia come kickoff Sunday and this spread could not only climb to -3 but maybe even -3.5 if the public pounds America’s Team.

SPREAD TO BET LATER: LOS ANGELES RAMS (+6.5) AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Both NFC West rivals are coming off bad losses in Week 15, but the Rams’ 44-21 flogging in Dallas looks a little worse than the Niners dropping the ball versus Atlanta. And that’s why this 6.5-point spread will tick toward the home side for Saturday night’s game.

With the 49ers fighting for the No. 1 seed in the NFC and looking to avoid a Wild Card spot, bettors will bank on a bounce back with the team staying in the Bay Area. San Francisco was banged up heading into that matchup with the Falcons and should it return some key bodies, this spread could climb to a touchdown or higher.

Some books opened 49ers -6 and jumped to -6.5, and now we’re seeing that line taxed a little more on the home side as books attempt to cook up action on the Rams. If you like Los Angeles to put in a good fight and try to play spoiler to San Francisco’s postseason plans, then hold off and wait to see how many points this spread will climb.

TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 47 OAKLAND RAIDERS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

It was a bad week for California-based NFL teams. Both the Raiders and Chargers lost – as did the Rams and Niners – but at least one will get a “W” in Week 15 (unless we get a tie. Yuck). However, we’re more concerned with the total for this AFC West rivalry.

Oakland botched its farewell game in the Bay Area by scoring only 16 points in a loss to Jacksonville and has averaged just 13.2 points over its last five games, posting a 1-4 Over/Under count in that span. Los Angeles mustered a mere 10 points in a blowout loss to Minnesota, a week removed from hanging 45 points on the Jaguars. Take that high-scoring aberration out of the mix and the Bolts have scored 20 or less in three of their last four.

This total of 47 points is the lowest Over/Under set for a game between Oakland at L.A./San Diego since 2015 and in their eight meetings during that stretch, these divisional foes have produced a 2-6 Over/Under mark. Bookies are already discounting the vig on the Over 47, so a move downward is coming. Take the Under 47 now while you can.

TOTAL TO BET LATER: UNDER 50.5 ARIZONA CARDINALS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

The Seahawks are vying for the top seed in the NFC after a win at Carolina and a 49ers loss to Atlanta in Week 15. Seattle is far from those dominant defensive clubs that stormed the NFL playoffs a few years back, scoring 26.3 points for but allowing 27.3 points against over its last three contests.

The Cardinals come in with the hot hand, putting 38 points on Cleveland at home in Week 15. Arizona has scored 25 or more points in four of its last six games and is a much different team than the one that lost 27-10 to Seattle at home back in Week 4.

The current 50.5-point total is the third-highest Over/Under number on the Week 16 board, after opening as low as 49.5. It has climbed as high as 51 at some sportsbooks and if you think that total is too tall, wait it out and see how high you can get the number before getting down on the Under.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-19-2019, 09:56 AM

Hot & Not Report - Week 16

Week of December 16th

After last week's piece dealt with what to expect from the CFB Playoff, it's back to the NFL version of the game this week with only two weeks left.

With the regular season almost complete, plenty of focus will be on the teams trying to grab one of those four remaining playoff spots that have yet to be clinched in the league, and rightfully so. But as is always the case in this league, division matchups during the final two weeks will go a long way in determining who gets those spots, and what seeds everyone ends up with, so that's where I'd like to start for this week's piece.

(Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS)

Who's Hot

Division home favorites are 7-3 ATS and 9-1 SU the past three weeks

It's been quite the run for chalk layers who are at home facing a rival since Week 12 saw teams in that role get blanked (0-3 ATS). Since then it's been a great run for these home favorites in division games, as Tennessee's outright loss vs Houston yesterday was the only time a division home favorite didn't win the game the past three weeks.

The other two ATS losses were the New York Jets 22-21 win over Miami in Houston (NYJ -5) and Philly's 23-17 OT win over the Giants last Monday (Philly -9), but throwing down on those teams on the Money-Line or in a ML parlay still came through. And when you consider that the average margin of victory by the seven home teams that did win SU and ATS the past three weeks clocks in at 16.5 points per game, there is no size of chalk that you shouldn't at least consider backing.

Given that Week 17 is the one where every team is in divisional action, this may be an angle you want to put on the back burner until then, but Week 16 does offer a few spots where this is applicable.

It all starts on with Saturday's triple-header, as the 49ers host a Los Angeles Rams team with San Francisco currently laying -6 in the market. With the Rams playoff hopes all but dashed with that loss to Dallas on Sunday, motivation becomes a big time issue with L.A. this week, and chances are that number is only going to rise. The Rams know their season is all but finished, while the 49ers are looking to get that top spot in the NFC (and NFC West title) back in their grasp. Laying the 6 points now if you like the 49ers is something you should strongly consider.

Prior to that Saturday Night Football game, we've got the New England Patriots laying nearly the identical number (-6.5) at home against the Bills that day. Motivation won't be an issue for either side as the AFC East title is still up for grabs, and both teams have already clinched a playoff spot regardless of what happens the next two weeks. Obviously a win for Buffalo in this game would be huge for their psyche going into the playoffs, never mind the chance to host a playoff game, but recent trends regarding these division home favorites doesn't do them any favors. That being said, if the Patriots are going to be the side you are looking at, it probably doesn't hurt to wait, as this number is more likely to drop then rise. Plus, who knows if it'll come out that the Patriots had staffers doing more filming of opponents for them this past week.

Flipping things over to the rest of Week 16's card, other divisional home favorites include Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) vs Oakland in a game where both sides likely don't give a crap, Washington (-2.5) vs the New York Giants, Seattle (-9.5) vs Arizona, and Minnesota (-4.5) vs Green Bay on Monday Night Football.

The first two games in that list are ones where you'll probably want to find a few more pieces of supporting evidence to consider backing the Chargers or Redskins, but it's quite conceivable to think that the Giants and Raiders are ready to pack things in for 2019. That's an angle worth considering there as well.

But the latter two games are much more intriguing, as Seattle will know what they need to do based on San Francisco’s result on Saturday, and Minnesota would clinch a playoff spot and still be alive for the NFC North crown with a win over the Packers. Those are two sides with plenty of motivation to grab dominant wins, and as of now, they've be the only way I'd look.

Who's Not

Backing 'Unders' in non-conference games: Only one winning week since Week 5

Non-conference games have long been a spot where 'over' bettors look to cash a few tickets, and for the bulk of this season that's exactly what has happened. Just blindly taking 'overs' when you've got a AFC team going up against a NFC team has produced a 22-17 Over/Under record overall. That's not phenomenally good by any means, but considering every week outside of Week 13's 1-3 O/U record has been at least break-even at worst (ie 1-1 O/U or better and not counting the juice), that's a pretty good angle to at least start with when you begin to break down the week's card.

Week 15's slate saw 'overs' in non-conference games go a perfect 3-0 O/U – with the Indy/New Orleans game pending – and all three of the winners in those games put up at least 36 points. When those winners include the likes of Arizona and the N.Y. Giants putting up that kind of production, you can see that it's an angle that isn't isolated to average or above average teams.

Week 16 is the last week of the year we get these non-conference tilts, so this is the last opportunity to use this approach. Of the teams involved in this angle for Week 16, many of them have nothing to play for this year other then personal pride, but given that statistics do go a long way in terms of contract negotiations for guys, padding numbers for offensive guys in this particular spot is something to consider as well.

This week's games include: Detroit at Denver (38), Jacksonville at Atlanta (45.5), New Orleans at Tennessee (51), Carolina at Indianapolis (46.5), and Kansas City at Chicago (45).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-19-2019, 09:57 AM

NFL Betting Stats heading into Wk 16:

Road Teams: 124-94-6 ATS
Home Teams: 94-124-6 ATS

Favorites: 100-118-6 ATS
Underdogs: 118-100-6 ATS
Home Faves: 56-80-5 ATS
Home Dogs: 38-44-1 ATS

Road Faves: 44-38-1 ATS
Road Dogs: 80-56-5 ATS

O/U: 110-114

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-19-2019, 09:57 AM

NFL's Top ATS Teams:

1. Bills 9-4-1 ATS
t2. Steelers 9-5 ATS
t2. Chiefs 9-5 ATS
t2. Saints 9-5 ATS
t2. Rams 9-5 ATS
t2. Packers5-1 ATS
t7. Niners 8-5-1 ATS

NFL's Worst ATS Teams:

32. Bears 4-10 ATS
31. Chargers 4-8-2 ATS
t30. Jets 5-9 ATS
t30. Bengals 5-9 ATS
t30. Eagles 5-9 ATS
t30. Lions 5-9 ATS
t26. Bucs 5-8-1 ATS
t26. Browns 5-8-1 ATS

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-19-2019, 09:58 AM

Tech Trends - Week 16
Bruce Marshall

Saturday, Dec. 21

HOUSTON at TAMPA BAY (NFL, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Texans 9-3-1 vs. spread away since early 2018. Bucs have won last 4 SU but 0-5 vs. spread at Tampa TY. Bucs also on 12-3 “over” run since late 2018.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Texans, based on “totals” and team trends.

BUFFALO at NEW ENGLAND (NFL, 4:30 p.m. ET)
Pats are 29-3 SU last 32 in series though Bills have won and covered 3 of last 5 at Gillette Stadium. Bills on 10-4-1 spread uptick since late LY, and 7-1-2 last ten as dog. Buff also “under” 10-3 TY. Note Belichick has had at least one 3-game winless spread streak in 6 of last 7 seasons (including 2019). Belichick “under” 17-5 last 22 reg season.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Bills, based on “totals” and recent trends.

L.A. RAMS at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Rams on 11-5 spread run in reg season since late 2018. Niners, however, 8-5-1 vs. spread TY, and won handily at Coliseum Oct. 13. Rams also “under” 9-5 TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to 49ers and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-19-2019, 09:59 AM

by: Josh Inglis

SHERMINATOR

The San Francisco 49ers will have PFF’s No. 1 cornerback Richard Sherman back for their Week 16 matchup versus the L.A. Rams on Saturday night. If the Niners can win out, they can clinch the No.1 seed in the NFC and getting Sherman back will only boost the No. 2 DVOA defense, which faces a Rams offense that is averaging the second-most passing yards a game since Week 13.

No team has held opponents to a lower passing-yard total at home than the Niners. Through seven home games, teams are only managing 134 yards passing per game versus San Francisco, no quarterback has topped 232 yards, and only two QBs have eclipsed 200 yards.

Jared Goff has passed for over 1,000 yards in the last three weeks, but those were against Bottom-15 DVOA defenses. Against Top-10 defenses, Goff has averaged 176 yards, including a 78-yard performance against the 49ers in Week 6.

We like San Francisco with a big bounce-back game this week and it starts with its defense. We’re taking the Under on Goff’s passing total on any number above 225 yards.

SATURDAY MATINEE

Already down WR Mike Evans, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will most likely be without standout receiver Chris Godwin for Saturday’s 1 p.m. ET game. Coach Bruce Arians told reporters on Tuesday that he will look to get his running backs involved in the passing game to compensate for the loss.

Ronald Jones could be the biggest beneficiary of this situation. RJ2 leads the Bucs’ backfield in targets since Week 10, turning eight targets into five grabs for 50 yards the last two weeks. Not great output, but considering the Texans are allowing the most receiving yards to opposing RBs on the year, there’s optimism that Jones could yield 25-plus yards Saturday.

We’re waiting for Jones’ prop market to open and will look to grab the Over on his receiving total on any number below 35 yards.

BEATING THE BILLS EARLY

Sticking with Saturday, we have our eye on a first-quarter play that will feature two elite defenses and one offense that’s struggling to put up points early in December.

The Buffalo Bills haven’t scored a first-quarter point in three games and are averaging just 1.9 points in the opening 15 minutes across seven road games this year. In their last three games, they are 0-2-1 ATS versus the first-quarter spread and will have to fend off a New England Patriots team that leads the league in first-quarter points scored at home. The Pats offensive struggles apparently don’t apply to the first quarter as the defending Super Bowl champs are putting up a robust 9.3 points in the opening frame at Gillette Stadium this year.

We expect this game to be a close battle, but just love the value of the Pats’ first-quarter spread of -0.5 for +115 with the Bills’ ineffective early offense.

JETS AIN'T NO JOKE

Talk to any Pittsburgh Steelers fan and you won’t find many keen on this offense. Current QB Devlin Hodges will get another crack at starting after a four-interception game last week and no QB is attempting fewer passes a game than Hodges (22.3).

Pittsburgh loves to run the ball but could be forced to find another route of action as the Jets are the league’s No. 2 DVOA rush defense and are holding opposing teams to just 89 yards a game on the ground. There’s a good chance that Hodges is forced to watch Week 17 from the sidelines if he can’t show something in New York.

The Jets were missing some key pieces to their defense last week including Jamal Adams, two starting cornerbacks and DL Quinnen Williams. It’s too early in the week to tell if this group sits again, but even if they could get Adams back, it would be a huge boost for the defense.

We’re riding the Steelers’ team total Under again and taking the Under 20.5 early in the week before it slips below 20.

YOU’RE WILKINS

If you’ve forgotten - and we don’t blame you - the Carolina Panthers are still giving up rushing touchdowns at a league-high rate. No team is allowing more rushing TDs at home, on the road and over the last three weeks than the Panthers. The former 5-3 team has rattled off six straights losses, got its coach fired and is on its third QB heading into a road matchup against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 16.

The Colts are a Top-10 team in rushing yards per game but are averaging just 67 yards over their last three contests thanks to facing three Top-10 DVOA rush defenses in New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Tennessee. Carolina should help right the ship for the Colts’ rushing woes and we might have to double down because Marlon Mack and Jordan Wilkins could see an even split if Indy plays with the lead as a 6.5-point home favorite.

We will play the anytime Marlon Mack touchdown but what will make our day is if Wilkins, who saw one less snap than Mack last week and the only two red-zone carries, hits pay dirt as well for plus-money.

Saturday 12-21-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Saturday 12-21-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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