Sunday 12-22-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

by: Josh Inglis


SHERMINATOR

The San Francisco 49ers will have PFF’s No. 1 cornerback Richard Sherman back for their Week 16 matchup versus the L.A. Rams on Saturday night. If the Niners can win out, they can clinch the No.1 seed in the NFC and getting Sherman back will only boost the No. 2 DVOA defense, which faces a Rams offense that is averaging the second-most passing yards a game since Week 13.

No team has held opponents to a lower passing-yard total at home than the Niners. Through seven home games, teams are only managing 134 yards passing per game versus San Francisco, no quarterback has topped 232 yards, and only two QBs have eclipsed 200 yards.

Jared Goff has passed for over 1,000 yards in the last three weeks, but those were against Bottom-15 DVOA defenses. Against Top-10 defenses, Goff has averaged 176 yards, including a 78-yard performance against the 49ers in Week 6.

We like San Francisco with a big bounce-back game this week and it starts with its defense. We’re taking the Under on Goff’s passing total on any number above 225 yards.


SATURDAY MATINEE

Already down WR Mike Evans, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will most likely be without standout receiver Chris Godwin for Saturday’s 1 p.m. ET game. Coach Bruce Arians told reporters on Tuesday that he will look to get his running backs involved in the passing game to compensate for the loss.

Ronald Jones could be the biggest beneficiary of this situation. RJ2 leads the Bucs’ backfield in targets since Week 10, turning eight targets into five grabs for 50 yards the last two weeks. Not great output, but considering the Texans are allowing the most receiving yards to opposing RBs on the year, there’s optimism that Jones could yield 25-plus yards Saturday.

We’re waiting for Jones’ prop market to open and will look to grab the Over on his receiving total on any number below 35 yards.


BEATING THE BILLS EARLY

Sticking with Saturday, we have our eye on a first-quarter play that will feature two elite defenses and one offense that’s struggling to put up points early in December.

The Buffalo Bills haven’t scored a first-quarter point in three games and are averaging just 1.9 points in the opening 15 minutes across seven road games this year. In their last three games, they are 0-2-1 ATS versus the first-quarter spread and will have to fend off a New England Patriots team that leads the league in first-quarter points scored at home. The Pats offensive struggles apparently don’t apply to the first quarter as the defending Super Bowl champs are putting up a robust 9.3 points in the opening frame at Gillette Stadium this year.

We expect this game to be a close battle, but just love the value of the Pats’ first-quarter spread of -0.5 for +115 with the Bills’ ineffective early offense.


JETS AIN'T NO JOKE

Talk to any Pittsburgh Steelers fan and you won’t find many keen on this offense. Current QB Devlin Hodges will get another crack at starting after a four-interception game last week and no QB is attempting fewer passes a game than Hodges (22.3).

Pittsburgh loves to run the ball but could be forced to find another route of action as the Jets are the league’s No. 2 DVOA rush defense and are holding opposing teams to just 89 yards a game on the ground. There’s a good chance that Hodges is forced to watch Week 17 from the sidelines if he can’t show something in New York.

The Jets were missing some key pieces to their defense last week including Jamal Adams, two starting cornerbacks and DL Quinnen Williams. It’s too early in the week to tell if this group sits again, but even if they could get Adams back, it would be a huge boost for the defense.

We’re riding the Steelers’ team total Under again and taking the Under 20.5 early in the week before it slips below 20.


YOU’RE WILKINS

If you’ve forgotten - and we don’t blame you - the Carolina Panthers are still giving up rushing touchdowns at a league-high rate. No team is allowing more rushing TDs at home, on the road and over the last three weeks than the Panthers. The former 5-3 team has rattled off six straights losses, got its coach fired and is on its third QB heading into a road matchup against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 16.

The Colts are a Top-10 team in rushing yards per game but are averaging just 67 yards over their last three contests thanks to facing three Top-10 DVOA rush defenses in New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Tennessee. Carolina should help right the ship for the Colts’ rushing woes and we might have to double down because Marlon Mack and Jordan Wilkins could see an even split if Indy plays with the lead as a 6.5-point home favorite.

We will play the anytime Marlon Mack touchdown but what will make our day is if Wilkins, who saw one less snap than Mack last week and the only two red-zone carries, hits pay dirt as well for plus-money.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL's Top Over Teams:

1. Buccaneers 11-3 O/U
2. Panthers 10-4 O/U
t3. Cowboys 9-5 O/U
t3. Lions 9-5 O/U
t5. Cardinals, Ravens, Vikings, Titans, Seahawks, Colts & Giants 8-6 O/U


NFL's Top Under Teams:

t1. Bills 11-3 U/O
t1. Steelers 11-3
t3. Rams 9-5 U/O
t3. Patriots 9-5
t3. Bengals 9-5
t3. Bears100 9-5
t7. Packers, Broncos, Texans, Redskins, Falcons & Chargers tied at 8-6 U/O

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Week 16 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

A shoulder issue isn't expected to sideline Dak Prescott for Dallas' huge game at Philadelphia.

NFL Week 16 has a quarterback who might not be 100 percent, but he is in no position to sit out. We check in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Injury Impact

DALLAS COWBOYS: Quarterback Dak Prescott has an injury to his right (throwing) shoulder, but with the Cowboys and Eagles in a battle for the NFC East title, the Dallas QB can ill afford to rest. “Prescott is going to play, but we expect him to be somewhat limited,” Osterman said. “We’re at Cowboys -1.5, and it had been Cowboys -2.5.”

MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Running back Dalvin Cook (chest) seems unlikely to play, in a key NFC North clash against visiting Green Bay on Monday night. But The SuperBook was prepared for that possibility. “We expected Cook to be out. That line has actually moved in the Vikings’ favor.” Indeed, the Vikings opened -4.5 and reached -5.5 midweek.

HOUSTON TEXANS: Running back Carlos Hyde (ankle), who has 1,030 yards on the ground and is averaging 4.6 yards per carry, is questionable at Tampa Bay. However, Osterman said The SuperBook made no move off that information yet. The Texans are 3-point favorites.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: Quarterback Jameis Winston (thumb/knee) is questionable, but oddsmakers believe he’ll play against Houston. “Winston was questionable with the same injury last week and played well, so no move.” The Bucs are 3-point home underdogs.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Wideout Julian Edelman (knee/shoulder) is questionable, although that seems to be the case every week, so there’s been no adjustment. “We’ve learned to kind of ignore the Pats’ injury report unless there is more tangible evidence of someone being out. They list a lot of guys as questionable every week.” New England is laying 6.5 at home against Buffalo on Saturday.

OAKLAND RAIDERS: Running back Josh Jacobs (shoulder), who has 1,150 rushing yards and averages 4.8 yards per carry, is out for the Raiders’ game at the Los Angeles Chargers. “Jacobs is worth a half-point to the spread and the total. He’s their main source of offense right now.” The Raiders are 7.5-point underdogs, with the total at 45.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: The defense isn’t as banged up as last week, when several players were out or questionable, but end Dee Ford (quad/hamstring) is among those who won’t play. However, there was no adjustment, and the 49ers are 6.5-point home favorites against the Rams on Saturday night.


Weather Watch

BUFFALO AT NEW ENGLAND: The middle layer of Saturday’s three-game NFL sandwich will be a chilly one, with the temperature around 30 for a 4:25 p.m. ET start. “The total has come down 1.5 points. Some of that move has to do with the weather, but both teams are also a little banged up.” The total actually dipped 2 points, from 38.5 to 36.5, but rebounded to 37 Thursday.

CINCINNATI AT MIAMI: A battle among two of the league’s worst teams could be played in the South Florida rain. There’s an 80 percent chance of thunderstorms Sunday. However, Osterman said that hasn’t yet impacted the total, which sits at 46.

OAKLAND AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: There’s a 50 percent chance of rain in L.A. on Sunday. “The total has come down 1.5 points. That’s more to do with Josh Jacobs being out than the weather.” The total is at 45.
Pros vs. Joes

DALLAS AT PHILADELPHIA: “The only game that is Pros vs. Joes is this one. The public has been all over the Cowboys, but the line has come down with concern over Dak Prescott’s shoulder. We got some early sharp money on the Eagles at +3 (-120). We are currently at Cowboys -2.”


Reverse Line Moves

DALLAS AT PHILADELPHIA: A repeat of the Pros vs. Joes, with sharp action coming in on the Eagles, but more money flowing toward the Cowboys for Sunday’s NFC East showdown.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WILL ROGERS
NFL | Dec 22, 2019
Steelers vs. Jets
Jets+3 -102

The set-up: The Jets were destroyed 42-21 at Baltimore last Thursday , but they'll be plenty motivated here in my opinion to play spoiler vs. a Steelers team which was unable to deliver the goods at home vs. the Bills on Sunday night, falling 17-10. Pittsburgh has looked decent defensively as it tries to figure out its rotating QB issues, but I believe it'll have its hands full here vs. Sam Darnold in his last regular season home contest (the Jets then end their season on the road in Buffalo.)

The pick: The Steelers are also a poor 1-3 ATS in their last four after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games, while the Jets are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 as a home dog, including 3-1 ATS this year as a home underdog of seven points or less. It's been an incredible run for Mike Tomlin and the Steelers considering all of the adversity they've had to overcome, but I believe that they've run out of gas . Consider the points in this contest.


1* FREE PLAY on the JETS.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALEX SMART
NFL | Dec 22, 2019
Ravens vs. Browns
Ravens-10 +103

It might seem like their is line value with the home dog here today, but there is not according to my score projections. However, its important to noted that Ravens have had the pedal to the proverbial metal since the beginning of this pre season, and Im betting nothing changes here today vs the under achieving Browns. HC Harbaugh has feasted against poor run defences in his time in Baltimore going 8-1 ATS in road games versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 130 or more rushing yards/game in the second half of the season with the average ppg diff clicking in at +15.9 ppg. With that said, Im betting on LeMar Jackson and company running wild today on their way to a lopsided victory vs a team with talent but not chemistry. BALTIMORE is 6-0 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +16.9 ppg.

The Browns are 0-13 ATS /SU L/13 on grass off a double-digit loss as a TD-plus dog in which they committed at least two turnovers with the average ppg diff clicking in at -19.1 ppg with every loss coming by 12 points per game or more.

Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover

Projected score: Baltimore 34 Browns 13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RICKY TRAN
NFL | Dec 22, 2019
Giants vs. Redskins
Redskins PK -123

My 1* FREE PLAY is on the Washington Redskins.

After picking up consecutive wins over Detroit and Carolina, Washington has lost two in a row. That includes a crazy game vs. the Eagles last weekend. Dwayne Haskins hasn't been great, he enters this one with 1,232 yeards, five TDs and seven INTs. RB Adrian Peterson has been a bright spot with 784 rushing yards and four TD's for the Skins.

The Giants finally broke their nine-game losing streak in what was likely veteran QB Eli Manning's final game in front of the home town crowd vs. Miami last Sunday. Note that Daniel Jones is expected back under center today though as the rookie has recovered from his sprained ankle.

Key Trends:

- New York is just 4-6 ATS this year as an underdog.

- The Giants are only 3-5 ATS in their last eight following a SU win.

- Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last six after allowing 35 points or more in its previous outing.

The verdict: Washington has been competitive, covering the spread in three of its last four. The Redskins don't have much to work with, but they've been better since firing Jay Gruden. I expect home field to matter in this matchup; consider the Skins in this one!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MIKE LUNDIN
NFL | Dec 22, 2019
Steelers vs. Jets
UNDER 37 -104

The Pittsburgh Steelers are battling for the No. 6 seed in the AFC despite ranking 30th in the league for total offense. They're 6-0 to the under on the road this season and 23-5 in their last 28 games as a road favorite. Quarterback injuries have forced Devlin Hodges into the starting role, and running the ball won't be easy against a Jets defense that ranks second in the league against the pass.

One of the few teams with a more inept offense than the Steelers are the NY Jets. Points will be particularly hard to come by for them in this one against a Pitt D that is allowing only 307.4 ypg on the season.

It's a low number, but note that games with a total closing at 40 points or fewer this season is 16-5 to the under.

Free pick on UNDER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LARRY NESS
NFL | Dec 22, 2019
Jaguars vs. Falcons
Falcons-7 -120

My free play is on the Atl Falcons at 1:00 ET.
A pair of 5-9 teams meet in a meaningless Week 16 game, as the Jacksonville Jaguars travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons. Both are coming off Week 15 wins, as the Jags snapped a five-game losing streak with a 20-16 victory at Oakland, while the Falcons are off a stunning 29-22 win at San Francisco. The Jags trailed the Raiders 16-3 at the half last Sunday (it was the Raiders' final home game in Oakland) but rallied to score the game's final 17 points. Meanwhile, the Falcons trailed the 49ers 19-10 with under six minutes to go last Sunday but incredibly pulled out a 29-22 win with two TDs in the game's final TWO seconds. Yes, you read that right! Actually, I can't imagine ANYONE reading this, has not heard about the ending to that game.

There was a front office shakeup at Jacksonville on Wednesday, as Tom Coughlin was fired as executive vice president of football operations. “Blinders on, going ahead,” Jacksonville head coach Doug Marrone told reporters. “I don’t want any excuses from the coaches or the players about distractions, or what may be going on.” Jacksonville’s offense continued to sputter in the win over the Raiders, failing to crack 300 total yards for the THIRD straight game. Rookie QB Gardner Minshew didn’t put up big numbers (17 of 29 for 201 yards) but he put the Jaguars in position to win, throwing two TD passes without an interception. RB Fournette may have 1,081 yards but it's been 'quiet' season. The Jacksonville, D, one of the league's best just a few seasons ago, ranks 23rd in allowing 25.2 PPG on 372.4 YPG (24th).

Atlanta's Matt Ryan is headed for another 4,000-yard season, as he's thrown for 3,769 yards with 24 TDs and 12 INTs. WR Julio Jones (82 catches / 1,150 / 6 TDs) has found a good 'sidekick' in WR Ridley (63 catches / 7 TDs) and TE Hooper has 61 catches and six TDs. However, Atlanta's once solid running game has disappeared, ranking 30th by averaging 81.4 YPG (3.7 YPA). Atlanta's D was awful as the team opened 1-7 but the unit continued its second-half resurgence with a strong showing against the 49ers, allowing 313 total yards and forcing two turnovers. The Falcons have 12 takeaways in their last five games and they’re plus-6 in turnover margin over that stretch. Atlanta is 4-2 since that 1-7 start and in the four wins, its defense has allowed only 13.5 PPG.

Both have been out of the playoff picture since October but the Falcons are aiming for a THIRD consecutive victory. As noted, the Atlanta D is greatly improved and Ryan needs just 231 passing yards to reach 4,000 for the NINTH consecutive season. Speaking of QBs, the Jags have a HUGE decision coming up. Is Gardner Minshew their starting QB? Is owner Shad Khan prepared to swallow a $30 million-plus cap hit by releasing Nick Foles? The Jaguars have been out-gained by SIX consecutive opponents and my play is on Atlanta to win and cover.

Good luck...Larry

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MARC LAWRENCE
NFL | Dec 22, 2019
Bengals vs. Dolphins
Bengals PK -123

Play – Cincinnati Bengals (Game 469).

Edges – Bengals: 7-1 ATS away versus foes coming off consecutive losses, and QB Andy Dalton 9-3 SU and 9-2-1 ATS away in December versus sub .600 opponents … Dolphins: 1-5 SUATS in Last Home Games … We recommend a 1* play on Cincinnati. Thank you and good luck as always.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Pellegrino

#464 Tennessee Titans
#478 Seattle Seahawks

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Mejia

#458 Broncos
#473 Ravens
#468 Jets
#478 Seahawks
#471 Car Panthers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Zylbert
W.G.Ramirez

#459 Raiders
#462 Falcons
#466 Redskins
#470 Dolphins

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THE GOLD SHEET

Event: (467) Pittsburgh Steelers at (468) New York Jets
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 22, 2019 1PM EST
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.0 (-110)

Remember Le’Veon Bell? Toiling in near anonymity for the J-Men this season, his reunion vs. the team he stood up a year ago is at least going to provide colorful cannon fodder for the Post and other NY tabloids this week. Bell is also off of his best game (87 YR) for the Jets, but Mike Tomlin’s sticky D figures to be more animated than usual to face Bell, with the erratic Sam Darnold also in for a rough afternoon. Steel’s margin for error to make playoffs decreased with the close loss vs. the Bills, though Duck Hodges still has Pitt in driver’s seat for final wild card in AFC.
Pittsburgh 26 - NEW YORK JETS 13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

KEVIN DOLAN

Event: (479) Kansas City Chiefs at (480) Chicago Bears
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 22, 2019 8PM EST
Play: Chicago Bears 5.5 (-108)

We have this game lined at Kansas City -2 as Chicago simply plays better inside the confines of Soldier Field than they do on the road, especially on defense. Getting +5.5 is a few too many points for Chicago here so look for the Bears to keep this one close on Sunday and stay within the number.

Take the Bears plus the points at home against the Chiefs.

PLAY: CHICAGO BEARS +5.5

[rocky57]

Big Ray Sports (Spooky Express) - From Ray's Red-Hot Totals Club - Yale/Clemson Over 127