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Monday 12-23-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Nice outright 3♦ NFL complimentary winner yesterday as the Cardinals stunned the Seahawks in Seattle. For Monday’s freebie, we’ll take the generous points with Marshall against Central Florida in the Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa.
There’s no question that Central Florida is the more talented of these two squads, particularly on offense. The Black Knights average 43 points and 536.6 yards per game. Not only do those figures rank No. 4 and No. 6 in the nation, respectively, they dwarf Marshall’s averages of 25.8 points and 397 yards per contest.
However, after cashing in each of its first three games of the season—two of which were against Florida A&M and Florida Atlantic—UCF was a complete money-burner, going 2-7 ATS. During that seven-game span, the Black Knights posted just three wins of more than 17 points (which is what they’ll need to cover this number): They beat UConn 56-21 (as a 43-point favorite!), Temple 63-21 (as an 11-point chalk) and South Florida 34-7 (as a 24-point choice).
Meanwhile, after dropping three of its first five games, Marshall rallied to go 6-1 down the stretch, posting four double-digit wins Admittedly, the Thundering Herd were terrible against the number also, covering in just four of 12 games. But they were favored in nine of those contests; in three games as an underdog, Marshall won once and cashed twice (including a 14-7 loss at Boise State as a 14-point dog).
Then there’s this incredible stat: In 13 bowl games in school history, Marshall is 12-1 SU and ATS. That’s not a typo: The Herd are 12-for-13 in bowl games, both on the field and at the window. That includes a 3-0 SU and ATS mark in this Gasparilla Bowl, the most recent being last year’s 38-20 rout of South Florida as a three-point favorite. Conversely, UCF is 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four postseason contests, and underdogs have brought home the money in seven of the Black Knights’ last 10 bowl outings.
Minnesota opened as the -4 1/2 point favorites. It was announced on Thursday that a key piece of their offense - that would be RB Dalvin Cook - is likely to miss this contest and yet the line has gone up to -5 1/2 points on the host Vikings!?!?!?!?
I have a very STRONG feeling that this line is a flat-out T-R-A-P!!!
Kirk Cousins is now 0-8 both straight up and against the spread after Minnesota +3 lost 37-30 under the Monday night lights on the 2nd of this month to the Seahawks in Seattle.
Again, why has this line gone up instead of down on Minny!?!?!?!?
Let me just tell you that the folks out there in Nevada ain't stupid.
I look at a line like this and I immediately feel that the linesmakers know something about this Green Bay team that you and I don't know, especially since the Packers are 11-3 with one of the wins coming back on Week Two at home over Minnesota 21-16. That win by Green Bay did stop a 3-0-1 Minnesota straight up run in the rivalry and it has the Pack just this win tonight - or next week at Detroit - away from clinching the NFC North Title.
I think the most glaring issue I see with backing Green Bay is their offense just has not looked "right" as we head into the playoff season. The Packers have mustered 21 and 20 points since their 31 point "explosion" at the putrid New York Giants to start the month of December. How will that offense fare against this Minnesota defense that created 7 turnovers last time out in a 39-10 rout of the L.A. Chargers? The game before the Minny "D" limited a bad Detroit team to a meaningless late TD in a 20-7 home win and cover.
Speaking of home, Minnesota has protected their "Viking Ship" to a tune of 6-0 straight up this year with a 4-2 spread mark. The non-covers have come when they were favored by double-digits. Including the postseason, Minnesota stands at 18-7-2 against the spread as the home favorite since US Bank Stadium opened in the 2016 season. That mark includes a 2-0 ledger against tonight's opponent.
Kirk Cousins has quietly put together a pretty damn good season this year, so mark me down for that career Monday night record to see its first win and cover go down on the stat sheet after this game has concluded.
Monday night comp play on Miami as the home favorite to cool off the visiting Utah Jazz.
Utah is rolling right now, as they hit this Monday nighter having won 5 in a row. This will be the last of 3 in a row on the road before they head home and enjoy Christmas, but I don't think they are heading back to Salt Lake City with a win in their sneakers.
Miami has gone 12-1 at home this season, and are fresh off a 15-point home win and cover over the Knicks their last time out. That cover brought their home spread mark to 11-2 for the first 13 games, and this is reasonable number for them to cover.
Utah is 0-3 against the spread when listed as an underdog from +3 to +7 points thus far this season, and are on an 0-4 spread slide when facing teams with a winning record this season.
This will be the first meeting of the year between the teams and it is Miami that has won 4 of the past 5 series meetings with covers in 3 of the 5 meetings.
Jazz have been playing much better hoops of late, but with this being their third roadie over the past 5 days and with the Christmas holiday on their minds, I look for the Heat at home to do what they have been doing all season on their home floor and that is notch the straight up win and the against the spread cover.
Reason: Your free play for Monday, December 23, 2019 is in the College football Gasparilla Bowl game between Marshall and Central Florida. Your free play from Jim Feist is on 219. Marshall +15 points.
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