Thursday 12-26-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Hawkeye Sports

Thursday's Free Pick: Carolina Hurricanes - 170 (plays Friday)

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Huddle Up Sports

Free Play: NY Knicks +7 NBA

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Arthur Ralph

Free Play THURS Det Pistons -6

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Vegas Steam Line

Your free winner for Thursday: NEW YORK/BROOKLYN UNDER the total of 221

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High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Thursday: Utah Jazz - 5 1/2

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Kenny Towers

Your Free Pick for Thursday: Washington/Detroit UNDER 231

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Stephen DeAngelo

For Thursday’s freebie, take the OVER in the Quick Lane Bowl between Pitt and Eastern Michigan from Ford Field in Detroit.



No doubt this is a classic contrast in styles, with Pitt’s stellar defense (17 points, 203 yards per game allowed) butting heads with Eastern Michigan’s explosive offense (30.3 points, 428 yards per game). But rather than focus on the season in total, I prefer to focus on recent form. When you do that, you see that the Panthers’ defense struggled down the stretch, surrendering point totals of 27 (North Carolina), 28 (Virginia Tech and 26 (Boston College) in their final three games.



Pitt also got lit up for 30 points by Virginia, 34 by UCF and 30 by Duke. In fact, except for Penn State (17 points allowed), the Panthers were average at best against the better offenses they faced.



Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan scored 42, 45 and 26 points in its final three games and was involved in one shootout after another this season. The Eagles’ lowest-scoring game this year was a 29-23 loss to Ball State (52 total points). Eastern Michigan’s other 12 games had combined point totals of 53, 55, 65, 63, 58, 61, 71, 54, 56, 62 and 60. In other words, the total in this game is a field goal lower than the lowest-scoring game the Eagles played all year! In fact, this could end up being EMU’s low-water game of 2019 and still go over the total if it lands on 50 or 51.



Finally, this bowl game will be played in the comforts of a dome, so there won’t be any weather elements affecting the passing game. That’s good news for Eastern Michigan quarterback Mike Glass III (2,858 passing yards, 22 passing TDs, 7 rushing TDs) and Panthers gunslinger Kenny Pickett (2,737 passing yards, 11 passing TDs, 2 rushing TDs).



Throw in the usual offensive trickery, fourth-down gambles and wide-open play you usually see in these mid-level bowl games, and this one should clear 50 points by the middle of the fourth quarter.

4* OVER the total

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Bob Valentino

That is the case tonight in the Quick Lane Bowl when 7-5 Pittsburgh takes on 6-6 Eastern Michigan.

I know that the oddmakers are not stupid, so while the Panthers come in at 2-6-1 against the spread their last 9 as a double-digit favorite and while the Eagles are 6-1 as a double-digit underdog - that loss coming early this year at Kentucky 38-17 as the +15 1/2 point underdog - I am going to lay it with Pitt as they look to win their first bowl game under 5th year coach Pat Narduzzi and end a 4 game bowl drought that dates back to 2013 when they beat another MAC team on this very field in the Little Caesar's Bowl.

Pitt did lose their final 2 games of the regular season, as they were shutout at Virginia Tech and they lost at home to Boston College. While the Panthers have been offensively-challenged, quarterback Kenny Pickett is not a bum and Pittsburgh's top receiver Taysir Mack is expected to be back from his ankle injury to help secure the win for the bowl-starved Panthers.

The real key though to why I am willing to lay the wood is the Pittsburgh defense which finished just outside of the top ten for the regular season and was ranked # 1 in the ACC with 49 quarterback sacks. They also held opponents to over 90 yards below their season average which was good for # 9 in the FBS stats.

That means that EMU quarterback Mike Glass better be on his game for the Eagles if they wish to stay in this game, let alone stay inside of the impost. True, Ford Field is less than 40 miles from Eastern's home base in Ypsilanti, but have you ever seen Rynearson Stadium filled up for any of EMU's MAC home games? There won't be much of a home-field advantage for Chris Creighton's team at all tonight.

Coming into this year's bowl season, teams out of the MAC were just 9-32 straight up in bowl play - Eastern contributing with a loss in their bowl game last season, and also a loss back in 2016 under Creighton - but to the MAC's credit they are off to a 2-1 start to this year's bowl season. I Can't go for that mark to improve tonight though, as I see EMU losing touch in this game.

Narduzzi is itching to break his bowl maiden, and I think he gets it convincingly as the Panthers defense swings the tide and aids their offense with a few short fields to work with as Pitt wins by 13 or 14 points tonight in the Motor City.

2* PITTSBURGH

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Mitchell Newman

Thursday comp play out of the NBA on the Kings as the home favorite over the Timberwolves.

Minnesota has really struggled in the month of December, as they come into this game having dropped every game played so far this month - 0-11 straight up - and the points have not been of much help, as Minny is just 1-9-1 against the spread in those 11 losses.

Sacramento is also entering play tonight on a bit of a slide, as the Kings have followed a 4-1 straight up run with losses in each of their last 4.

I say back the Kings to be the team that breaks their slide first though, as the T-Wolves will be playing once again without Karl-Anthony Towns who is hampered by a knee injury.

These teams split their 4 season series meetings a season ago, as the home team was able to win and cover in all 4 of the meetings.

Home team to dominate once again tonight.

Kings minus the points to hand the Timberwolves their 12 straight loss.

3* SACRAMENTO

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sunland Park

Sunland Park - Race 3	$1Exacta/Trifecta /.10 Superfecta
Maiden • 330 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3-4 • CR: 71 • Purse: $19,600 • Post: 1:17P
QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE AND FOUR YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; FOUR YEAR OLDS, 128 LBS. (FOUR YEAR OLDS PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * PRINCE OF BO DASH: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Eq uibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
4	PRINCE OF BO DASH	4/1	2/1
3	CORLEONNI	12/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	HIDDEN COURAGE	1	9/2	Average	78	65	4.2	0.0	0.0
2	FLY AWAY WITH ME	2	8/1	Fast	69	68	3.4	0.0	0.0
3	CORLEONNI	3	12/1	Slow	82	71	6.9	0.0	0.0
4	PRINCE OF BO DASH	4	4/1	Slow	88	85	6.8	0.0	0.0
5	EL CARRANZISTA	5	15/1	Fast	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
6	JJ SPANISH FOOSE	6	6/1	Average	65	60	4.7	0.0	0.0
7	SANTANASSILVERCHARM	7	10/1	Slow	63	53	6.4	0.0	0.0
8	RC R RUANAWAY TWO	8	12/1	Slow	0	0	9.1	0.0	0.0
9	REDD METAL	9	6/1	Average	73	72	4.5	0.0	0.0
10	NATALIES WOOD	10	15/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	0	0	9.1	0.0	0.0
11	RFARMER GIRL	11	15/1	Average/Trouble-prone	76	68	5.0	0.0	0.0
12	STOLIS CHILD	12	20/1	Average	0	0	4.6	0.0	0.0

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fair Grounds

Fair Grounds - Race 1	Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) Daily Double / $0.50 Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)
Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 72 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 12:30
FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 26 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * STAR YANKEE: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SIR ADVENT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BAND BOSS: Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
9	STAR YANKEE	4/1	3/1
3	SIR ADVENT	5/2	6/1
10	BAND BOSS	15/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	SIR ADVENT	3	5/2	Front-runner	65	73	64.6	62.4	56.4
5	PAPA'S BIG BOY	5	7/2	Front-runner	58	64	62.4	60.0	50.5
4	VIVINSKY	4	20/1	Front-runner	59	52	54.6	41.8	22.8
10	BAND BOSS	10	15/1	Alternator/Front-runner	63	75	76.8	70.2	54.2
7	JACOBS FLYER	7	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	71	62	33.2	59.8	50.8
9	STAR YANKEE	9	4/1	Trailer	71	69	48.6	71.8	66.8
1	HE'S NO BULLY	1	12/1	Trailer	68	67	36.4	58.6	46.6
2	CHIMNEYVILLE	2	12/1	Trailer	68	59	32.0	58.4	48.4
6	MIKEY'S MOUSE	6	10/1	Trailer	65	63	15.2	55.2	44.2
8	LORD COLLIERY	8	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	72	66	50.8	56.4	45.9

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 9 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $47000 Class Rating: 99

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 26 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 VINCERO 3/1
# 5 FORTUNATE FRIENDS 6/1
# 4 HARD BELLE 4/1

I think VINCERO is a strong choice. He has to be considered given the very good speed numbers. He has a respectable distance/surface win record - 3 / 8. Looks very good versus this group and should be one of the leaders. FORTUNATE FRIENDS - His 89 average has this gelding with among the best Equibase Speed Figures in this race. Could best this group based on the speed rating - 91 - of his last affair. HARD BELLE - With a solid 91 Equibase speed fig last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Dobles running at this distance are the best in this field.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Golden Gate Fields - Race #6 - Post: 2:45pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating:

#1 AMERICAN ROYALTY (ML=5/2)


AMERICAN ROYALTY - This thoroughbred coming off a solid performance in the last 30 days is a win candidate in my book.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 PACIFIC STRIKE (ML=2/1), #7 ROUGE BOUQUET (ML=7/2), #5 SENORITA COMETA (ML=6/1),

PACIFIC STRIKE - Speed figures tell a narrative of decreasing form. This filly has already been beaten as the public's choice in back to back races. Hard to give her another chance. ROUGE BOUQUET - You always figure that this animal has a shot to be the victor, but she falters often. Finished third in her most recent race with a run-of-the-mill speed rating. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this field. SENORITA COMETA - This filly finished off the board on Nov 11th and wasn't near the winner last race out either. Will be tough for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last speed figure. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's Equibase class figure, so put her on the questionable challengers list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #1 AMERICAN ROYALTY to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:	Pass

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Turfway Park - Race #4 - Post: 7:42pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 67

Rating:

#2 CHRISTIAN MISS (ML=8/1)
#3 E Z BONUS (ML=15/1)
#10 BELLA KRISTINA (ML=5/2)


CHRISTIAN MISS - We have lots of early speed with this mount. She could wire this field. E Z BONUS - You may want to overlook that last affair at Belterra Park on a track listed as good where she finished out of the money. Should do well in this race on a fast track. BELLA KRISTINA - Machado and McPeek perform well when they join forces. Not easy to best a winning percentage of 38. Horse's last race was at Churchill Downs in a race with a class rating of 77. Dropping significantly in Equibase class figure in today's event puts her in a solid position in today's race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #12 GIRLS GOT TRACK (ML=9/5),

GIRLS GOT TRACK - This favorite ran on Nov 17th and hasn't had a morning drill after that.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #2 CHRISTIAN MISS to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,10] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Laurel

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 79

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 26 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 SHECOR 2/1
# 1 RAPID ROUTE 10/1
# 7 JOYFUL NOISE 5/1

I think SHECOR is a solid choice. Displays sound Speed Figures on average overall when put alongside the rest of this group of horses. Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Cox have shown strong results as of late. Should be given a shot in this race if only for the competitive Equibase Speed Figure garnered in the last race. RAPID ROUTE - Parram has her trained admirably to break speedily out of the gate. Should definitely be given consideration for this event if only for the very good Equibase speed fig garnered in the last contest. JOYFUL NOISE - The speed rating of 70 from her last race looks strong in here. Magill has shown excellent profits (+20 ROI ) with horses in dirt sprint events.