Sunday 1-5-20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 08:19 AM

Betting Recap - Week 17
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 17 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 11-5
Against the Spread 6-8-2

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 7-9
Against the Spread 6-8-2

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 11-4-1

National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 145-88-1
Against the Spread 112-130-10

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 134-117-1
Against the Spread 106-136-10

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 126-124-2

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Dolphins (+17, ML +1000) at Patriots, 27-24
Jaguars (+5.5, ML +220) vs. Colts, 38-20
Bengals (+2.5, ML +120) vs. Browns, 33-23

The largest favorite to cover
Saints (-14) at Panthers, 42-10
Cowboys (-12.5) vs. Redskins, 47-16
Titans (-9.5) at Texans, 35-14

Miami Not Nice

-- The Miami Dolphins headed up to Foxboro with nothing to loose, but head coach Brian Flores wanted to show mentor head coach Bill Belichick how far his team has come since an early-season beatdown in Miami. The New England Patriots headed came home from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Garden back in Week 2 with a 43-0 victory in tow, easily covering a 18-point number. As a 17-point favorite on Sunday, things didn't work out as well.

It was a costly loss for the Patriots, too, as the loss to the five-win Dolphins ended up costing them a bye. Now, the Patriots will have to play another member of the Belichick coaching tree, as Mike Vrabel will lead his Tennessee Titans into town next Saturday night for the primetime AFC Wild-Card Game battle. The Titans and Patriots didn't face each other during the regular season.

After opening the season 0-7 SU, the Dolphins finished up 5-4 SU in their final nine games, and 9-3 ATS across the final 12 games. After looking anything like an NFL-caliber team during the early going, the Dolphins showed no quick, dispelled any talk of tanking and they might have finished runner-up to the Atlanta Falcons for the unofficial 'No Quit' award.

Total Recall

-- Week 17 is usually a difficult slate of games to handicap, as so many teams elect to rest starters, either for the entire game, part of the game or they get wind of a score in another city and change their plan at the last minute.

Two teams who were not doing that gave us one of the most entertaining games of the 2019 regular season. The San Francisco 49ers-Seattle Seahawks (47) had an entertaining game which started out rather defensive. There were just 13 points on the board at halftime, all for the Niners. The Seahawks fought back and came within inches of a go-ahead touchdown in the final minute. They got a first and goal at the 1, but a delay of game penalty sent them backward, and they were scrambling for plays. A pass play to TE Jacob Hollister was snuffed out, literally, at the 1-inch line on fourth and goal. After a series of reviews, the Niners were award the ball with :09 left. Under bettors, and side bettors (-3.5) everywhere were screaming at NBC Sports commentator Al Michaels, as well as his cohort Cris Collinsworth, who suggested the Niners take a safety and/or run around in the end zone and take a knee. That would have flipped so many tickets. QB Jimmy Garoppolo had other ideas, rushing ahead of a QB sneak to run out the clock. Disaster averted. The game ended up a push, and San Francisco continued to cover.

The highest total on the board was the Atlanta Falcons-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (48.5). Things appeared to be headed for an easy over ticket, as the Bucs led 22-16 at halftime. However, we had a scoreless third quarter, and just six points from the Falcons in the fourth to force overtime. A field goal would have meant an 'under' result, but QB Jameis Winston was picked off by LB Deion Jones, who returned the easy pick-six for the win, and the 'over' ticket. It was a bad beat, or as big of a bad beat as the NFL card in Week 17 would offer.

The Sunday nighter was the only primetime game, and it was a push at most shops - so that's what we'll call it. For the season, the 'over' is just 17-31-1 (35.4%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Looking Ahead to Wild-Card Weekend

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

These teams will meet for the first time this season. Buffalo was an impressive 6-2 SU/6-1-1 ATS with the 'under' connecting in six of their eight games on the road.

For the Texans, they also rested their starters like the Bills in Week 17. Both teams are coming off of home losses, but it shouldn't affect either side. The Texans (-3, 42) are favored at home, but essentially Vegas is calling it a pick 'em, as generally the home side is given a three-point edge. The Texans ended the season a little on the banged up side, with their top skill position players battling nagging injuries. They'll have six days to rest and get ready. The 'under' was 6-3 in the final nine for Houston.

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots

The Titans were dominant down the stretch, looking like an NFL caliber team once QB Ryan Tannehill took the reins of the offense. Whether he is back, or the team elects to draft a quarterback, it's pretty clear the Marcus Mariota experience is over in Nashville. These teams also did not meet during the regular season. The Titans hit the 'over' in nine of their final 10 games after opening on a 5-1 'under' run. They were 5-3 ATS in the final eight road games, including 3-0 ATS with an 'over' in the final three away outings.

The Patriots (-5, 44) bring the experience into the Wild-Card Game, and they'll have a little anger after blowing a bye against the hapless Dolphins. The 'over' hit in their final three games, too.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

The Vikings pulled off the Minneapolis Miracle back on Jan. 14, 2018, when WR Stefon Diggs squirted free for a miracle touchdown on the final play to stun the Saints. Don't think the fans, and the Saints, haven't forgotten. Plus, the Saints have the bad juju from last season's pass-interference non-call against the Rams, which led to sweeping changes to the rules, allowing coaches' challenges.

These teams didn't face each other in the regular season. The Vikings were 4-2 SU/ATS in the final six road games for the Vikings. The Saints (-8, 47) roll in with three straight wins and covers to lock up a home game in the first round, and they're 11-3 ATS across the past 14 games overall.

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles

The only wild-card matchup which saw the teams meet in the regular season is this game. A costly loss at home to the 49ers cost the Seahawks a home playoff game, and now they must go cross-country to meet the four-seed Eagles. Seattle won 17-9 back on Nov. 24 after a bye, easily hitting the 'under' as 1.5-point favorites. They'll enter in a similar spot, favored by one with a total of 46.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 08:19 AM

NFL Wild Card betting opening odds and early action: Saints strong favorites vs Vikings
Patrick Everson

The NFL regular season gives way to the new year and the playoffs, starting with Wild Card weekend. We check in on the opening odds and early action for the four matchups, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-8)

New Orleans gets a chance to avenge the Miracle in Minneapolis from the 2017-18 playoffs and is surely still hot about the noncall of pass interference that ended its 2018-19 playoff run. The Saints (13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS) closed with a 42-10 rout of Carolina as 13.5-point road favorites, finishing the regular season with the NFL’s best spread-covering mark.

Minnesota broke New Orleans’ heart on a crazy touchdown play in the divisional round two years ago. This year, the Vikings (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) are skidding into the postseason, losing their last two and three of their last five. In Week 17, locked into the sixth seed and resting many of their starters, the Vikes fell to Chicago 21-19 as 5-point home underdogs.

“It’s hard to trust Kirk Cousins in a big game, and we consider the Saints the best team in the NFC,” Murray said in assessing this contest, set for 1:05 p.m. ET Sunday. “The Saints will be in every moneyline parlay this weekend.”

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (-1)

Seattle came mere inches short of nabbing the NFC’s No. 2 seed, a first-round bye and a home game in the divisional round. Instead, the Seahawks (11-5 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) fell to the fifth seed after losing to San Francisco 26-21 Sunday night as 3.5-point home underdogs. On fourth-and-goal in the waning seconds, Seattle came up a hair short of the end zone.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia won the NFC East and is the No. 4 seed despite having the worst record of all the NFC postseason qualifiers. In Week 17, the Eagles (9-7 SU, 7-9 ATS) assured their playoff spot with a 34-17 road victory over the New York Giants as 4-point favorites.

“We opened Philly -1, but flipped to Seahawks -1 already,” Murray said late Sunday night, shortly after The SuperBook posted the playoff lines. “This number may go higher due to the time slot (4:40 p.m. ET Sunday). The public will be on the Seahawks and a ton of parlays will close with Seahawks.”

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-5.5)

Defending Super Bowl champion New England needed only to beat lowly Miami on Sunday to nail down the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye in the AFC. But the Patriots (12-4 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) failed to do so, stunningly losing 27-24 on a last-minute touchdown as hefty 17.5-point home favorites, falling to the third seed.

Tennessee was in a win-and-you’re-in situation in Week 17, and fortunately, Houston – with the AFC South wrapped up – opted to rest its key players. The Titans (9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) ultimately got bet up to 10-point road favorites and rolled 35-14 to take the sixth seed.

“There will be good two-way action on this game,” Murray said of the Saturday night Wild Card contest, which kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET. “Obviously, the public will support the Patriots as always, but I also think we will see money come in on the Titans, given how much New England has struggled on offense recently.”

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-3)

Houston won the AFC South and could’ve possibly moved from No. 4 to No. 3, but opted to rest DeShaun Watson and several others, playing it safe in Week 17. As such, the Texans (10-6 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) went off as 10-point home underdogs against Tennessee and got rolled 35-14.

No. 5 seed Buffalo was one of the bigger surprises of the season, going 10-6 SU (9-5-2 ATS), although Sean McDermott’s squad dropped its last two regular-season games. In Week 17 against the New York Jets, the Bills didn’t keep QB Josh Allen in long and mustered just two field goals in a 13-6 home loss catching 1.5 points.

“This will likely be the lowest-handle game of the weekend and probably not a big decision,” Murray said of the first Wild Card kickoff, at 4:35 p.m. ET Saturday. “There should be support for both teams. It’s hard to trust Josh Allen here, but it’s also hard to trust Bill O’Brien laying points. Flip a coin.”

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 08:20 AM

NFC Wild Card Notes

Minnesota at New Orleans

Sunday Jan. 5 (FOX, 1:05 p.m. ET)

Vikings Road Record: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS
Saints Home Record: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS

Opening Odds

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook sent out New Orleans as an eight-point home favorite with a total of 46. The opening number has held steady overnight but the total has been pushed up to 47.

Head-to-Head

These teams have met three times over the last three seasons and all of those encounters took place at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota. The Vikings own a 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS mark in those games but the numbers could be in bettor favor for the Saints if it wasn’t for the “Minneapolis Miracle” in the 2018 Divisional Playoffs. Minnesota would eventually get humbled a week later at Philadelphia while New Orleans was sent packing.

Playoff Notes

Despite the win over the Saints in the 2018 Divisional Playoffs, the Vikings haven’t had much success in the playoffs especially on the road. Minnesota is 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS in its last 10 playoff games and that includes a 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS mark on the road.

Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins has only appeared in two playoff games and he’s produced a 0-2 record both SU and ATS. He only started once for Washington and it was blasted 35-18 at home to Green Bay in the 2016 Wild Card Round.

The playoff pedigree for New Orleans was once considered a no-brainer bet but recent trends have made bettors hesitant. Since QB Drew Brees started in “The Big Easy” in 2007, the Saints have gone 8-6 SU and 6-8 ATS. Recently, the club is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS over the past two seasons and all three non-covers came at the Superdome. They could’ve easily covered a few of those game but the days of watching New Orleans ‘boat-race’ opponents at home hasn’t happened since 2012 when they routed the Lions 45-28 as 10 ½-point home favorite.

These teams met in the 2010 NFC Championship and New Orleans nipped Minnesota 31-28 in overtime. Brees and the Saints outlasted QB Brett Favre, who made a key interception late in the fourth quarter for the Vikings that cost them a chance to win the game in regulation. Two weeks later, New Orleans defeated Indianapolis 31-17 in the Super Bowl.

Total Notes

The ‘over’ went 9-7 for both the Vikings and Saints in the regular season. Normally a good ‘over’ bet at home, New Orleans saw a stalemate (4-4) at the Superdome despite the offense scoring 30-plus in six home games.

Minnesota watched the ‘over’ go 6-2 in its final eight games of the season and the ‘over’ was 5-3 on the road, which includes a run of five straight to the high side in their last five away games. During this span, the Vikings offense averaged 32.4 points per game.

New Orleans saw the ‘under’ cash in both home playoff affairs last season but that was preceded with a 5-0 ‘over’ run. Minnesota is on a 2-0 ‘over’ run in the playoffs, both results coming during its 2018 campaign. Prior to those games, the Vikings saw seven of their previous eight playoff games go ‘under’ the total.

Seattle at Philadelphia

Sunday, Jan. 5 (NBC, 4:40 p.m. ET)

Seahawks Road Record: 7-1 SU, 5-2-1 ATS
Eagles Home Record: 5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS

Opening Odds
The SuperBook opened the Eagles -1 but the number quickly flipped to the Seahawks -1. The total was sent out at 45 ½ and that number has held steady.

Head-to-Head

These teams met in Week 12 and Seattle captured a 17-9 win over Philadelphia a two-point road favorite. Including that win, the Seahawks have won and covered five straight games against the Eagles dating back to 2011. Seattle QB Russell Wilson is 4-0 all-time versus the Eagles and all four wins came by double digits and two of them occurred in the “City of Brotherly Love.” The ‘under’ has connected in all four of those games.

Playoff Notes

Seattle has gone 8-5 all-time in the postseason with Wilson at QB and that includes a 1-5 mark on the road. The ‘Hawks have dropped three straight playoff games on the road and the defense has surrendered 24, 36 and 31 points in those losses. The lone away win came in the 2016 Divisional Playoffs as Seattle nipped Minnesota 10-9 and the Vikings missed a late field goal in that decision.

Philadelphia has covered in each of its last five playoff appearances and it’s gone 4-1 SU in those games. The loss came in last year’s Divisional Playoff round at New Orleans, a 20-14 setback as an 8 ½-point road underdog. Fast Fact – The Eagles have closed as underdogs in each of those playoff matchups. The last time Philadelphia was favored in the playoffs came in 2014 when it lost 26-24 to New Orleans as a three-point home favorite in the Wild Card round.

Total Notes

As mentioned above, the ‘under’ has cashed in four straight encounters between the pair as Philadelphia was held to 12 PPG in those games.

Seattle watched the ‘over’ go 8-7-1 this season and that includes a 4-4 mark on the road. Scoring on the East Coast hasn’t been an issue for the club and we saw that this season as they averaged 26.8 PPG. Philadelphia produced an 8-8 total mark for bettors but the ‘under’ was 6-2 at Lincoln Financial Field. After allowing the Redskins and Lions to each put up 27 in Week 1 and 3 at home, the Eagles only allowed 13.3 PPG in their final six at home.

The Seahawks have watched the ‘over’ go 8-2 in their last 10 road playoff games. They’ve allowed 30.3 PPG in their last three postseason trips. The Eagles saw the ‘under’ go 2-0 in their two postseason affairs last season, and the offense scored 16 and 14 against the Bears and Saints respectively. Philadelphia watched the ‘over’ go 2-1 during its Super Bowl winning season in 2018. All five of those results came with QB Nick Foles, who was backing up Carson Wentz. This will be the first playoff appearance for Wentz.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 08:21 AM

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Wild Card Weekend odds: Media could help move Minnesota spread
Jason Logan

With the spread at Saints -8, books will move fast through the dead numbers if money continues to show up on the home side. If you like the Vikes, you could see +9 before kickoff on Sunday.

With only four games on the board and the focus of the entire football world on the NFL Wild Card Weekend, the odds for the opening round of the playoffs have as much wiggle room as an “economy” seat on a discount airline.

That makes getting the best of the spread and total vital for your postseason betting opinions. Covers Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan sizes up the Wild Card lines and gives his best bets to make now and which ones you want to make later.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: BUFFALO BILLS AT HOUSTON TEXANS (-3)

The Texans opened as field-goal favorites for this first-round matchup, enjoying a bit of bye week by resting starters in the season finale. Houston had the luxury of knowing it had nothing to play for once Kansas City won in the early kickoffs and rolled over for Tennessee in Week 17, with starters on the sideline.

The Bills also had little on the line when it lost to the Jets in Week 17, but still played some key players in the first half before yanking them and giving way to a loss. Buffalo hits the road for the Wild Card Weekend with three losses in its last four games but has been profitable as a road pup with a 4-0-2 ATS mark when getting the points as a visitor.

If you like Houston in this matchup, you will want to strike now at take the -3 before a nasty half-point hook shows up. Some books are already dealing Texans -3.5 but most have just tacked an extra five cents on to the vig, which would indicate a move to 3.5 is likely coming.

SPREAD TO BET LATER: MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+8) AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Books opened New Orleans as a 7.5-point home favorite for this Wild Card war with Minnesota and early money pounced on the Saints, pushing the spread to the dead number of -8 as of Monday morning.

New Orleans has looked flat-out dominant in recent weeks, outscoring its last three opponents by a combined score of 114-45. The Saints covered in all three of those matchups and could also have a bit of revenge in mind for Minnesota, given how the last postseason meeting between these two franchises finished. The media will play up the playoff rematch and the Over/Under on replays of the “Minneapolis Miracle” is at 100,000.

The Vikings also backed into the tournament on two straight losses (granted Week 17 was a giveaway) and left a bad taste in the mouths of bettors with a stinker against Green Bay in a must-win Week 16 contest. With the spread at Saints -8, books will move fast through the dead numbers if money continues to show up on the home side. If you like the Vikes, you could see +9 before kickoff on Sunday.

TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 43.5 TENNESSEE TITANS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

The total for this AFC Wild Card game opened as low as 41.5 and shot up as high as 44 points with early play on the Over. It would seem that initial action has faith in the Patriots offense finally showing up after laying dormant most of the season.

In a rare twist, it’s Ryan Tannehill and the Titans who swing the big stick on that side of the ball. Tennessee’s scoring has been transformative since going with the former Dolphins QB, who faces a familiar foe in the opening round of the postseason. However, the Titans’ best plan of attack should be RB Derrick Henry and plenty of him. That way they can control the clock and lower their risk of turning the ball over – something New England is very dependant upon.

Those books that did tick the total as high as 44 got instant buyback on the Under, so the 43.5 may be a good as it gets for those fans of the Under. While recent trends show the Titans and Pats riding respective runs for the Over, the backbone for both teams is defense. The weather looks to be cold and damp in Foxborough, with temperatures hovering around freezing Saturday night.

TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 46 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

The Seahawks and Eagles meet in the “Band-Aid Bowl” with both squads limping into the postseason. The theme song for this battle of the birds should be Mr. Mister’s airy 80’s hit “Broken Wings”, given the length of the injury reports.

Books opened this total at 46 points and while most are standing pat at that number (select books serving 45.5), some sharper markets are starting to discount the juice on the Over with money coming in on a lower-scoring finish. Seattle’s recent offensive efforts are playing into that lean, scoring only 21 points versus San Francisco in Week 17 and putting up just 13 points in a stunning loss to Arizona in Week 16.

These foes met in Philadelphia back in Week 12, with a 17-9 Seattle win staying well below the total of 45.5 points. If you fancy yourself a contrarian and like the Over, give this total some time to breathe. It should come down before those injury updates on Thursday and Friday.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 08:24 AM

145MINNESOTA -146 NEW ORLEANS
NEW ORLEANS are 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) with <=6 days rest in the current season.

147SEATTLE -148 PHILADELPHIA
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the last 3 seasons.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 08:25 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Wild Card Round

Sunday, January 5

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MINNESOTA (10 - 6) at NEW ORLEANS (13 - 3) - 1/5/2020, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 51-31 ATS (+16.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 2-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 2-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (11 - 5) at PHILADELPHIA (9 - 7) - 1/5/2020, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 71-48 ATS (+18.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 08:26 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Wild Card Round

Sunday, January 5

Minnesota @ New Orleans

Game 145-146
January 5, 2020 @ 1:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
131.480
New Orleans
143.309
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 12
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 7 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-7 1/2); Over

Seattle @ Philadelphia

Game 147-148
January 5, 2020 @ 4:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
134.306
Philadelphia
129.239
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 5
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 1 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-1 1/2); Over

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 08:27 AM

NFL

Wild Card Round

Last two seasons, underdogs are 7-0-1 ATS in this round of playoffs.

Sunday
Vikings (10-6) @ Saints (5-10)— Saints won five of last seven series games; home team won both their playoff meetings, with Minnesota scoring GW TD on a 61-yard TD pass as time expired in their 29-24 win two years ago. NO beat Vikings 30-20 on road LY- this is Vikings’ first visit here in five years. Minnesota split its eight road games SU; they’re 1-2 ATS as a road underdog TY. Vikings are 7-1 TY when they allow 20 or fewer points, 3-5 when they allow more. Over is 8-3 in their last 11 games. New Orleans lost NFC title game at home LY; they’re in playoffs for third year in row. Saints scored 38 ppg in winning last three games overall. Minnesota is in playoffs for 3rd time in five years; they lost 38-7 at Philly in NFC title game two years ago.

Seahawks (11-5) @ Eagles (9-7)— Seattle (-1.5) won 17-9 here in Week 12, coming off their bye; Eagles didn’t score TD until last 0:20 of game- they turned ball over five times (-3). Seahawks won their last five games with Philly, also winning their last five visits here- their last loss in Philly was in 1989. Seahawks lost three of last four games overall to fall to #5 seed; they’re 7-1 SU on road TY, with only loss 28-12 to the Rams in Week 14. Seattle is in playoffs of 7th time in eight years; they won their first playoff game nine of last ten times they were in playoffs. Eagles won their last four games to win NFC East; they’re 5-3 SU at home TY. Philly is in playoffs for 3rd in row, winning this round 16-15 in Chicago LY. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games overall.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 08:28 AM

NFL

Wild Card Round

Trend Report

Sunday, January 5

New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games
New Orleans is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home
New Orleans is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games at home
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
New Orleans is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans's last 11 games when playing Minnesota
New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Minnesota is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota's last 11 games when playing New Orleans
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans

Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games at home
Philadelphia is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Seattle
Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Seattle is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games
Seattle is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
Seattle is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Seattle's last 12 games on the road
Seattle is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Seattle is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 08:29 AM

by: Josh Inglis

PLAYOFFS’ WORST OFFENSES

The Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans, Redskins, Dolphins (twice), Cowboys, Broncos and Steeler: that’s the list of teams the Bills have beaten this year. The best team and only playoff team on that list are the 9-7 Titans who were quaterbacked by Marcus Mariota back in Week 5. This week, the Buffalo’s 22nd-ranked offense heads to Houston to take on a Texans team who has the next worst DVOA offense (17th) out of the 12 playoff teams.

The Bills’ team total sits at 19.5 (-134) and will likely move up past the key number of 20.5 as the total continues to rise after opening at 39.5. Buffalo finished 4-4 down the stretch and hasn't topped 20 points since Thanksgiving.

The Houston offense hasn’t exactly been turning heads of late as well. Over the last three weeks, Deshaun Watson’s offense is averaging just 301 yards of offense per game which is the 24th-most over that stretch. Having their No. 1 receiver in DeAndre Hopkins shadowed by Buffalo corner Tre’Davious White could also mitigate the offense’s big-play ability.

We are going to wait to see if the Bills’ team total moves to 20.5 and will buy on the bigger number. However, we love the way the total is moving and are taking the Under 43.5. We might even buy another share down if Houston receiver WIll Fuller can’t suit up or may be limited.

HENRY TO SEND PATS PACKING

Titans running back Derrick Henry is a 250-pound truck that is capable of taking Tennessee to the divisional round. The big back has been an absolute terror against Top-10 teams this year per TeamRanking.com. Henry is averaging 144 yards per game rushing against the league’s best and faces a New England defense that is allowing 4.2 yards per carry (14th) on the year.

Henry’s rushing total sits at 90.5 yards which he has gone Over in five of his last six games. A big reason for his production is just sheer volume. Henry led the league at 20.5 rushes per game but saw nearly 24 totes a game over the last month. The Patriots have only faced three RBs who carried 20 or more times this year: Joe Mixon 25-136, Ezekiel Elliott 21-86 and Nick Chubb 20-131.

If the Titans have faith in their running game against New England and let Henry wear down the defense with 20-plus rushes, the 90.5 yard total is a reasonable play. Take the Over.

SCOTT OFF THE PRESS

The Seattle Seahawks’ rush defense is limping into the playoffs having giving up on average of 172 rushing yards per game over the final three matches of the year which works out 5.7 yards per carry. They ranked 26th in DVOA rush defense and will have to deal with Philadelphia’s impressive offensive line who aided Boston Scott in his three rushing touchdowns and Miles Sanders to 5.8 ypc before exiting with an injury last week.

There is some uncertainty with the Eagles’ backfield heading into Sunday’s game, but it is a profitable situation to monitor as Seattle has allowed the second-most road rushing TDs in the league at 1.5 per game. Sanders is dealing with a “low-grade ankle sprain” and is considered day-to-day. Jordan Howard came back to the lineup last week and logged just one snap and may not be close to 100 percent.

If we had to pick a side, our money would be on Boston Scott especially after a trio of TDs last week. He proved he could get it done in the red zone taking three of his four RZ carries to the house. We are monitoring the situation, but are willing to put some money on Scott to score even if Sanders and Howard are part of the game plan — but likely limited.

HAND OF GOEDERT

Zach Ertz sounds like he won’t get any practice in this week as he tries to get back on the field while dealing with rib and kidney issues. Even if the star tight end does suit up, it will most likely be in a limited fashion meaning Dallas Goedert will be the man again against the Seahawks.

Goedert has seen 22 targets over the last two weeks and should be the focal point of the passing offense against the Seahawks. Seattle let 49ers TE George Kittle put up 86 yards on seven grabs last week and is averaging 67.7 yards to opposing TEs (3rd-most).

Goedert’s markets aren’t open yet as books are waiting to see what happens with all the injuries the Eagles are dealing with. But knowing what our limit is total-wise before the market is set is a valuable tool we can use. We are taking the Over on Goedert’s receiving total on any number below 72 yards as Carson Wentz is averaging 43 passes a game over the last four games.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 08:30 AM

by: Josh Inglis

SINGLING OUT SINGLETARY

Houston has the worst DVOA defense (26th) in the playoffs. Their 26th-ranked pass defense shouldn’t be overmatched versus Buffalo’s 23rd-ranked pass offense, but their rush defense that allowed 171 yards on the ground per game over the final weeks could get exposed to the Bills’ rushing game and more specifically Devin Singletary.

In Weeks 9 through 16, the rookie running back averaged 16.5 carries for 79.6 yards. Singletary could be in for a big game as his opponent is allowing running backs to rush for 5.8 yards per carry which is the second-most ypc over that stretch.

With the inconsistencies of Buffalo’s passing game, its best route to the Divisional round is through its ground game. We still don’t like the Bills running up the score, but they certainly can find success on the ground. Take the Over on Singletary’s rushing total of 69.5 yards.

LIBERTY BELL SACK SQUAD

Nine of the 12 teams in the playoffs finished in the Top-15 in sacks per game with only Seattle, Houston and Baltimore finishing in the bottom half. Of those nine, six finished inside the Top-10 over the final weeks (MIN, GB, NO, KC, TEN and PHI). We could be seeing a fair share of sacks in the Wild Card games especially in Philadelphia where the Seahawks are allowing 3.9 sacks on the road this year.

Russell Wilson is playing behind an offensive line that has four members on the I.R. and its starting left tackle Duane Brown is likely out for Sunday’s game. The Philly D-line looked great at creating pressure last week in New York as the Eagles sacked Daniel Jones four times and forced two fumbles.

Carson Wentz has played admirably with his group of rag-tag receivers, but Wentz can get in trouble waiting for his practice-squad receivers to get open. In his last five home games, the Eagles QB has been sacked 16 times. Having injured running backs trying to pick up their pass-pro assignments won’t help his cause either.

We are putting our 2020 dollars on the Over 5.5 sacks in this Sunday evening tilt.

THOMAS THE CATCH ENGINE

The Minnesota Vikings secondary will have its hands full in dealing with Saints WR Michael Thomas. Thomas led the league in receiving yards (1,725) and set an NFL record with 149 receptions. On Sunday, the Saints receiver will face a Minnesota defense that is allowing 77.3 yards per game to opposing No. 1 WRs — the 7th-most in the league.

Through four career playoff games, Thomas is averaging nearly eight catches for 106 yards and topped 130 yards twice. At home this year, he is putting up a league best 128 yards on 11 catches.

Minnesota gave up a 13-116 to Davante Adams in Week 16 and a 9-99 to Keenan Allen the week before. We have no problem taking the Over on Thomas’ reception total of 9.5 as the receiver has reached 10 grabs in seven of eight home games this year.

INDOOR INHABITANTS

The New Orleans Saints have scored the most first-half points over the last three weeks and are putting up over 14 points in the first 30 at home this year. Since Week 13, New Orleans’ first-half totals have been 38, 24, 20, 55 and 26 points as its defense gives up 11.1 points in the first two quarters at home.

Minnesota has been consistent in the first half, putting up 14 points a game at home and on the road. They are 2-2 O/U first-half totals of 24 or more over the last four games (not including Week 17).

Helping these teams hit the Over are their abilities to keep drives alive. New Orleans is converting 48 percent of its third downs at home (3rd) while Minnesots is converting 45 percent of third downs on the road (6th).

If you’re looking for an early play for this Sunday afternoon tilt, think about taking the 1H Over 24 as both teams are quite comfortable putting up points indoors.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-03-2020, 08:33 AM

Total Talk - WC Sunday
Chris David

Minnesota at New Orleans (FOX, 1:05 p.m. ET)

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened this total at 46 and as of Wednesday morning, the number has been pushed up to 49 ½. This is the highest total of the Wild Card weekend and based on the public perception of shootouts in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, you can understand the uptick.

Even though quarterback Drew Brees and the Saints have the ability to light up the scoreboard, the ‘over’ was only 9-7 this season. More surprising, Minnesota owned a 9-7 ‘over’ record and that included a 5-3 mark to the high side on the road. Delving into that number further, the Vikings closed the season a 5-0 run as visitors and as much heat as QB Kirk Cousins takes, they averaged 32.4 points per game over that stretch. Minnesota went 3-2 in those games and the reason it didn’t do better was because the defense allowed 25.4 PPG. On the season, the Vikings were ranked sixth in scoring defense (18.9 PPG) but that number spiked against playoff teams (25.4 PPG). The Vikings went 1-4 in those games and that’s why Cousins gets criticized and why I often label Minnesota as a “bully” team.

The total results (4-4) at New Orleans for home produced a stalemate despite averaging 28.4 PPG. The attack did have two clunkers during this span, defeating Dallas 12-10 in Week 4 before getting humbled 26-9 by Atlanta in Week 10. New Orleans was ranked 13th in scoring defense (21.6 PPG) and while the unit has improved over the last few seasons, watching the 49ers captured a 48-46 road win over the Saints in Week 14 reminded us of those weaknesses. The loss to San Francisco was the only setback for New Orleans against a playoff team this season, who finished 4-1 overall. Make a note that all five of those games went ‘over’ the number and they were clear-cut shootouts with an average combined score of 64 PPG. If you take out the combined 94 points versus SF, the average is still strong at 56.5 PPG. These teams have met three times over the last three seasons and all of those encounters took place at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota. The ‘over’ went 2-1 and that includes Minnesota’s improbable 29-24 win over New Orleans in the 2018 Divisional Playoffs.

Cousins has only started one playoff game in his career when he was with Washington and they were blasted 35-18 at home to Green Bay in the 2016 Wild Card Round. Meanwhile, the experience edge goes to Brees with an 8-6 record in the playoffs with New Orleans and the ‘over’ has gone 9-5 in those games.
Fearless Predictions
New Orleans saw the ‘under’ cash in both home playoff affairs last season as it rallied past Philadelphia 20-14 in the Divisional Playoffs before getting stunned 26-23 by the L.A. Rams in the NFC Championship. The totals on those games both closed in the fifties (52, 55) and I believe this one will too by kickoff. Prior to those results, the Saints were on a 5-0 ‘over’ run at home with Brees in the playoffs and the best production for the future Hall of Famer came in Wild Card game. New Orleans has averaged 40.3 PPG in its last three WC spots at home and I believe they put up another crooked number and cash its Win Total Over (28 ½). I do believe Minnesota will score as well and its Team Total (20) Over is tempting, but let’s keep it simple and drill the Over (49 ½) in the game only. I’ll call it New Orleans 42 Minnesota 27 in the Sunday’s opener.

Seattle at Philadelphia (NBC, 4:40 p.m. ET)

Of the four Wild Card playoff matchups, this is the only total that has seen early ‘under’ money. The SuperBook sent out an opener of 45 ½ and the total sits at 45 as of Wednesday evening. This is also the game that features a rematch from this year’s regular season as Seattle captured a convincing 17-9 road win over Philadelphia in Week 12 as a two-point road favorite and the ‘under’ (45 ½) was never in doubt. Both clubs had to deal with windy conditions at Lincoln Financial Field and that likely helped make the game very sloppy. The pair combined for seven turnovers, with the Eagles coughing it up five times. Plus, Seattle has 12 penalties and key drops by their wide receivers.

Including that win, Seattle has now won five straight against the Philadelphia and QB Russell Wilson is now 4-0 in his career against the Eagles while the ‘under’ has cashed in all four of those games. While everybody knows Seattle is one of the toughest venues in the NFL, what we’ve seen from Wilson in his career (38-25-1) on the road is impressive and the 7-1 record this season was tied for the best mark in the league as a visitor.

What’s more eye-opening is that Seattle has been able to score while traveling great distances and that’s been a common theme. In their last seven games played in the Eastern Time Zone, the Seahawks are averaging 27.4 PPG and that includes the 17-spot versus the Birds. The ‘over’ has gone 4-3 in those games and the numbers would probably be better but Seattle’s defense has been better on the road (21.1 PPG) this season than at home (28.6 PPG), which is crazy when many of us still reminisce about the “Legion of Boom” unit.

Philadelphia has some crazy home-away numbers as well, especially for totals. The Eagles saw the ‘over’ go 6-2 on the road but the ‘under’ was 6-2 at the Linc. The difference has been the Philadelphia defense, which allowed 16.8 PPG compared to an eye-opening 27.5 PPG on the road. Another factor helping the ‘under’ at home has been the inept Philadelphia offense. The unit posted 21 PPG at home and 27.1 PPG as visitors and all those stats produce identical 6-2 marks.

What head coach Doug Pederson and the Eagles did this season was incredible, especially winning their final four games with a short-handed club. It should’ve been five straight but people forget the embarrassing 37-31 collapse at Miami in Week 13. The one thing those opponents had in common is that none are in the playoffs. Against postseason clubs, Philadelphia went 2-3 and that includes a 0-2 record at home against the Seahawks and Patriots (10-17), both ‘under’ winners. Seattle went 3-3 against playoff teams this season, two of the victories coming on the road and the total went 1-1 in those games.

Fearless Predictions

Seattle has watched the ‘over’ go 8-2 in their last 10 road playoff games and they’ve allowed 30.3 PPG in their last three postseason trips. Those trends combined with Seattle’s ability to score on the East Coast lately should have you supporting the ‘over’ with confidence but the injuries and depth concerns for Philadelphia are hard to overlook. QB Carson Wentz, who’s making his playoff debut, has been playing great lately but I expect the home squad to lean on their defense and the form at home in their last six games (13.3 PPG) has been lights out. I don’t see both teams getting to 20 points and I believe kicking will be a key factor. I’d lean to ‘over’ bets in total field goals made but my only lean for this contest is on the Under (45). I see a 19-16 outcome here, likely Seattle, but whoever wins this game will get lit up for 30-plus points at Green Bay or San Francisco in the Divisional Playoffs.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-05-2020, 08:01 AM

Paul Leiner

NFL, NBA & CBB Picks 1/5" Sorry guys, I was terrible yesterday

100* Over 49.5 Saints/Vikings
100* Grizzlies +6.5
100* Michigan +8

**rocky57** · 01-05-2020, 10:04 AM

Big Ray Sports (Spooky Express) - CBB Comp Play - St Peter's/Marist Under 119

Sunday 1-5-20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Sunday 1-5-20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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