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Saturday's Pick
The Brooklyn College Boys have a 50 DIME play on Memphis at home over Georgia. The Tigers are -7 1/2 as I put my site live at 10:35 am eastern
Dr Bob
Best Bet - (630) *DePaul (-2.5) 1-Star at -3 or less.
Best Bet - (651) *Virginia Tech (+7) 1-Star at +7 or more.
Best Bet - (670) **Charlotte (-7) 2-Stars at -8 or less.
Best Bet - (676) *Appalachian State (-1.5) 1-Star at -2 or less.
Best Bet - (700) **Tennessee State (-11.5) 2-Stars at -12 or less, 1-Star up to -13.
Best Bet - (727) **Georgia Tech (+8) 2-Stars at +8, 1-Star down to +7.
Best Bet - (738) **Arkansas (-14) 2-Stars at -14 or less, 1-Star up to -15.
Best Bet - (760) *Baylor (-9) 1-Star at -9 or less.
My 150 Dime selection is Tennessee over Patriots.. The current line on this game is +5 1/2 in Vegas and offshore at 6:00 am eastern. Be sure to shop around for the best line available. Update: At 8:00 am eastern, the line is +5 in Vegas and offshore.
Update: At 2:30 pm eastern time, Tennessee is now +4 1/2 in all areas. If this line should continue to drop and you happen to get Tennessee at anywhere from +2 1/2 to +4 points, I advise buying the half-point up on the Titans.
ANALYSIS
It wouldn't surprise me at all if the dog delivered the outright win.Folks, I said on my 51 radio shows this week the same thing over and over and over again.When Bill Belichick's Patriots took the field against Miami last week, he and his team knew they needed to win that game to secure a first round bye.How important was that first round bye???? Glad you asked.The New England Patriots, the "Greatest" dynasty of all time, has never reached the Super Bowl without a first round bye.Let that sink in a minute.This game should have been a lay up right? They beat Miami 43-0 earlier this year and the Dolphins brought the 27th ranked offense and 30th ranked defense to Foxboro.So what did they do? They went out and imploded on every single level possible and lost outright as a 17-point home favorite 27-24 putting them in this game here.Up 24-20 with 3:53 to go and the ball on their own 25, Miami and that 27th ranked offense took the field against that #1 defense and said "fuck you.!!"And 11 plays later with 27 seconds to go, game over. Nice job #1 defense.It was the first time in Tom Brady's New England career he had ever lost outright laying 14 points or more.If that isn't a sign it's the beginning of the end of the Brady/Belichick era, I don't know what is.If you can't beat the 5-11 Miami Dolphins at home in a must win situation to get a 1st round bye, you want me to believe 6 days later you are going to beat a better Titans team????So I will gladly take any points you want to give me in this battle Saturday night.Is it going to be easy? Hell no, I mean, this is the defending Super Bowl champs playing at home, in a playoff game.However, I will also tell you that last time the Patriots didn't have a first round bye and had to play a wild card game: 2009 against the Ravens at Gillette Stadium.Baltimore won the game outright 33-14 as a 3 1/2 point road dog.This is a dangerous Titans team with Ryan Tannehill at QB.In his 10 games since replacing Marcus Mariotta as the starter, the ex Dolphins signal caller has gone 7-3 SU and ATS.In those 10 games to end the season, the Titans have averaged just over 30 points a game.Only one team has averaged more than that: The Baltimore Ravens.Even more impressive is the fact since Tannehill took over Tennessee has averaged 6.94 yards per play......that is the best in the NFL.Speaking of best in the NFL, with Tannehill at QB, the Titans led the NFL with 9 pass plays of 50 yards or longer.Bottom line folks is this reminds me of the 2009 game with the Ravens.A strong running game and fundamentally sound defense.The Patriots have been so good for so long it's hard to accept its over. Always hard to accept the end of an ERA.Losing to Miami last week at home in an absolute must win situation is enough for me to believe the run is over.I mean, 4-4 the 2nd half of the season and over the last 2 years, 4 of the 8 Patriots losses have come against former New England assistant coaches.This dog barks loud and clear Saturday night.
Today's winner... 150 Dimer is the Tennessee Titans plus the points at New England. At 7:45 am eastern time, Tennessee is +5 points in Vegas and offshore.
Update: At 2:30 pm eastern time, Tennessee is now +4 1/2 in all areas. If this line should continue to drop and you happen to get Tennessee at anywhere from +2 1/2 to +4 points, I advise buying the half-point up on the Titans.
About this game....
It's always a risk to count out the New England Patriots, as this is still a team that has won the Super Bowl 2 of the last 3 years and in 3 of the last 5 seasons overall. Still, this is NOT the same dominant New England teams of yesteryear and Tom Brady is looking every bit of his 42 years of age right now.
New England was once 8-0 on the season, but with just a 4-4 mark over the second half of the season and a stunning 27-24 home loss on Sunday to a Miami team they were 17-point favorites against, the Pats have been resigned to playing on this Wild Card weekend instead of getting the bye-week they are so used to getting.
Brady has thrown just 22 touchdown passes on the year which happens to be his lowest output in that category since all the way back in 2001 which was his first season as a starter! The Pats have scored more than 24 points only once over their last 8 games and that came against the woeful Cincinnati Bengals. New England has an ineffective running game and also no one other than Julian Edelman proven at the wide receiver spot. It's just not an offense that I can trust at all.
Oh sure, the Pats defense is the # 1 scoring defense with just over 14 points per game allowed, but they did allow 23 points or more in half of their final 8 games, and did lose straight up in each of the games when they did allow that 23 points-plus number. For the season, New England went just 3-3 straight up and 2-4 against the spread in games played against winning teams. Hardly dominating numbers if you ask me.
Tennessee comes into this game with some good matchups that could well expose the top-flight New England defense, as running back Derrick Henry was back healthy last weekend as he racked up 211 yards in a win at Houston that clinched the playoff spot for the Titans. Tennessee also has rookie receiver A.J. Brown who averaged close to 20 yards a catch on the season. The offense has gotten a major boost with the move to Ryan Tannehill at quarterback instead of Marcus Mariota. Tannehill is 7-3 as the starter for the Titans and is quite familiar with this New England team from his playing days with the Miami Dolphins.
The weather could be a little wet tonight, and that makes Henry's running all the more important for the Titans.
This is a bit of "deja-vu" for Tennessee, as they did make this same trip to Foxborough back in the 2017 season for a playoff game against the Pats and were hammered 35-14 in Mike Mularkey's final game as head coach.
This time it is Mike Vrabel's team and we all know that Vrabel played for New England and Bill Belichick during his playing days. It will make for a nice story if Vrabel can beat his former coach. Heck, he did beat Belichick last season in Nashville as Tennessee won that game 34-10 during the middle of the season.
As for me, all I care about is getting the cover and with +5 points pocketed to the dangerous Titans, I will back them to at least cover this Wild Card game against a New England team that sure looks vulnerable to me.
Note from Bob V....
Before we get into today's NFL 150 Dime release, let's talk about yesterday's 150 Dime release from Boise.
I released the play at 10:05 eastern on Thursday night with Ohio at -7 1/2 for a game that kicked off 3:30 Friday afternoon. As you know, the money kept rolling in on the Bobcats on Friday morning pushing the price up until it finally hit -9 1/2 at 12:30 eastern in a game they won by 9.
I won the game. I think the majority of you won the game because who is waiting until later in the day to bet a favorite? But for bookkeeping sake I'll take a loss here at the site.
Should not have been close as the Bobcats were up 30-9 and driving when they turned the football over and allowed an opening for the Wolf Pack.
Yesterday is behind me though and the focus now is on the NFL postseason.
This dude has lost his mind this year. He's normally fairly solid in Basketball, but right now it just looks like he's chasing. He's having a terrible year and this picking 18 games a day is a recipe for disaster. That's a lot of juice to make up when you're making that many selections.
I don't even feel like going through all those games right now, but prior to these picks, his record at the Sports Monitor of Oklahoma is....
NBA -6510
NCAA -3910
At this point, it's hard to know if you should stay the course or fade everything he's doing. Whatever system he's using doesn't seem to be working this year.
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