Saturday 1-11-20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 49

FOR NATIVE FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 26, 2019 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 11, 2019 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 11, 2019 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 PROMESA 2/1
# 5 CHICA LOCA 4/1
# 3 ALIADA 5/1

I've got to go with PROMESA. Should keep the impressive string of finish positions intact this time around. With a nice Equibase class rating average of 59, has one of the best class advantages in this field. CHICA LOCA - Encarnacion has one of the strongest winning percentages in this group of animals with entries running at this distance and surface. ALIADA - Has a very solid shot in this race if you like back class. Always good to invest in a trainer with this kind of respectable win percentage - 15 percent - at this distance & surface.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Penn National - Race #1 - Post: 6:00pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,800 Class Rating: 66

Rating:

#8 BOX OF GOLD (ML=6/1)
#7 KAY SYRAH SYRAH (ML=4/1)
#6 JOSEPHINE (ML=10/1)


BOX OF GOLD - As long as Hernandez keeps this pony off the pace, I have to believe this one could be a happy winner. This horse coming off a solid try in the last thirty days is a solid contender in my book. Got to like a race horse who can make up a ton of ground in the stretch. This filly came flying late sprinting last time out and should relish the longer distance of today's race. KAY SYRAH SYRAH - She must like the track here. She just won over the track after shipping in. Filly's finish positions keep getting better with each race. Maybe today's the day. The last speed rating of 63 is the best last race speed rating in the bunch. JOSEPHINE - Ran a lackluster race at Penn National last race out. Racing on a fast track puts this mare at the top of my contenders list. Flores is up for another race today after getting on board this animal for the first try on Dec 11th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. Don't throw out based on last race finish. She didn't end up on the board, but made a nice move in the homestretch making up ground. Could be dangerous at a possible price. This filly should improve after adding Lasix in the last race and getting it again today. Got to like a race horse who can make up a ton of ground in the stretch. This mare came flying late sprinting last time out and should relish the longer distance of today's race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 JEWELS AND PEARLS (ML=7/2), #4 SHEZA WILD GIRLEO (ML=6/1), #1 MISS CINDERELLA (ML=6/1),

JEWELS AND PEARLS - Tough to take this less than sharp equine at this price after the finish (fourth) in the last race. When any horse improves so much on a track listed as good, I have to be a little shy about her next race out. SHEZA WILD GIRLEO - Difficult to keep chasing this kind of 'bridesmaid' horse. A pony that breaks her maiden in a Maiden Claimer is usually recognized as a poor risk next out. The bang up effort last race out may knock this mare off stride in today's event. MISS CINDERELLA - This vulnerable equine hasn't been near the winner at the finish of late. Finished fourth in her most recent performance with a run-of-the-mill fig. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this group.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - BOX OF GOLD - Deceivingly close to victory on Dec 27th. A repeat of that strong performance makes her a contender this time out.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #8 BOX OF GOLD on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	8 with [6,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [6,7,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[6,7,8] with [6,7,8] with [3,6,7,8,9] with [3,6,7,8,9] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sunland Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Optional Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $24600 Class Rating: 81

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR TRIAL OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR OR CLAIMING PRICE $15,000. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 MULBERRY 3/1
# 7 I'M A DANCIN WHO 5/1
# 5 ELUSIVE ROSE 8/5

MULBERRY is the best wager in this race. Arrieta will most likely be able to get this mare to break out early for this event. With a formidable 78 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest. Has ran solidly in dirt sprint races. I'M A DANCIN WHO - She has been running strongly and the speed figures are among the most competitive in this group. Eikleberry has a win percentage of 27 over the last month. ELUSIVE ROSE - With Gonzalez controlling the reins on her, this filly ought to be able to break out early in this competition. With a very strong 80 speed rating last time out, will clearly be a factor in this race.

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Santa Anita Park

01/11/20, SA, Race 2, 1.01 PT
6F [Dirt] 1.07.00 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $33,000.
Claiming Price $40,000. FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLDWHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000
$1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double - $0.50 Rolling Pick Three (Races 2-3-4) - $0.50 Early Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5) - $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

100.0000	1	Way too Sweet	10-1	Gryder A T	Puype Mike	FEL
098.7789	7	Win Often	5/2	Espinoza A	Pederson Dean	TSC
097.8848	4	Mandy	3-1	Rosario J	Miller Peter
096.1495	3	Vegan	3-1	Delgadillo A	Spawr William
096.0429	5	French Rose	6-1	Prat F	Desormeaux J. Keith	J
095.7119	8	White Velvet	8-1	Diaz. Jr. J	Palma Hector O.	W
094.1430	6	Kristi's Tiger	12-1	Blanc B	Bell. II Thomas Ray
093.4925	2	Miss Kitness	10-1	Fuentes R	Ruis Shelbe

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by race type and exclusive to SA.

1	47.30@	14.00	1.11	41.74	91	218	Race Age 3
7	7.20	12.80	1.05	41.25	33	80	Best Trainer
4	5.40	15.60	1.02	33.03	36	109	Last Race Distance Is Equal To Today
3	47.30@	14.00	1.11	41.74	91	218	Race Age 3
5	5.30	12.00	1.04	40.00	30	75	Best Jockey
8	47.30@	14.00	1.11	41.74	91	218	Race Age 3
6	47.30@	14.00	1.11	41.74	91	218	Race Age 3
2	72.20@	19.80	1.24	39.86	59	148	Not Third Race After 45 Days Off

Top rated horse with "Race Surface Not fst/wf" - ROI 1.08, Win% 42.27
@ Profit has been accumulated for multiple race types.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Sam Houston - Race #6 - Post: 9:04pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 84

Rating:

#7 FALLSTAR (ML=7/2)
#2 YAK (ML=9/2)


FALLSTAR - If this gelding gets out of the gate cleanly, he'll be tough to catch. Taking a trip down in class; has the ability to make his presence felt. He has the highest earnings per start. Check out this one. YAK - This colt is in top physical condition right now. Ended up second last time around the track and comes back rapidly. Just look at his most recent speed fig, 84. That one fits well in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 HURRY BACK (ML=3/1), #6 DOBY (ML=4/1), #5 DONT LET ME LINGER (ML=8/1),

HURRY BACK - No pace in this bunch to help set-up his closing rush. DOBY - Didn't come through as the public's top choice twice. Probably won't gain a victory today either. DONT LET ME LINGER - Hasn't been close to winning at all lately.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #7 FALLSTAR on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs

01/11/20, TAM, Race 3, 1.45 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.03 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $22,500.
Claiming Price $16,000 (Races Where Entered For $12,500 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances). FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLDAND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $16,000
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum) - Pick 3 ($.50 minimum) (Races 3-4-5) / Pick 4 ($.50 minimum) (Races 3-4-5-6) - Super High 5
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

100.0000	5	Proposition	4-1	Morales P	Stidham Michael	JSFWL
097.3390	2	Naughty Shirley	4-1	Camacho S	Bennett Gerald S.	T
096.3194	4	G Q Girl	5-1	Suarez A	Johnson Gary L.
096.0097	8	Heather Hills	3-1	Garcia J A	Hendry Stacy Lane
095.9550	7	Tolly Ho	7/2	Centeno D	Glyshaw Tim
094.9466	6	Dreaming Diamonds	5-1	Martinez W	Blair Jordan	E
093.3351	3	Adonai Bless	30-1	Rivera. Jr. J L	Bagwandeen Pernel
091.0736	1	True Atka(b+)	15-1	Batista J A	Ochoa Gerard	C

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by race type and exclusive to TAM.

5	60.00@	19.40	1.13	37.83	87	230	Race Age 4Up
2	60.00@	19.40	1.13	37.83	87	230	Race Age 4Up
4	60.00@	19.40	1.13	37.83	87	230	Race Age 4Up
8	64.00@	18.40	1.20	40.51	64	158	Last Race Weight Is Greater Than Today
7	60.00@	19.40	1.13	37.83	87	230	Race Age 4Up
6	64.00@	18.40	1.20	40.51	64	158	Last Race Weight Is Greater Than Today
3	64.00@	18.40	1.20	40.51	64	158	Last Race Weight Is Greater Than Today
1	9.40	8.20	1.67	57.14	4	7	Blinkers On From Off

Top rated horse with "Race Surface Not fst/wf" - ROI 0.95, Win% 33.33
@ Profit has been accumulated for multiple race types.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

Jan 11 '20, 12:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-B | Alabama vs Kentucky
Play on: Kentucky -8 -110 at Bovada

1* NCAAB - Free Pick on Kentucky Wildcats -8
This might seem like a big number for Kentucky to be laying against a Crimson Tide team that won 6 of 8 and fresh off a 90-69 blowout win at home over a good Mississippi State team, but I like the Wildcats to lay it on Alabama in Saturday's early action.
Thing is Kentucky seems to have figured some things out. Wildcats come in having won and covered each of their last 3 games and in their last half of play they put 47 points on the road at Georgia to put the game away. It really felt like Calipari found something in terms of his rotation in that win over the Bulldogs.
As for this matchup with Alabama, the Crimson Tide are looking to push the pace under Nate Oats and that works great against a lot of teams, but Kentucky's not the team you want to get in a transition battle with. They just better athletes.
Another is the Wildcats are not a great 3-point shooting team and that's not going to be a problem. Opposing teams are scoring 54.3% of their points against Alabama inside the 3-point line and 24.9% from the free throw line. Kentucky scores 57.4% of their points inside the 3-point line and 23.7% from the free throw line.
'As for Alabama's offense they want to shoot a ton of 3's and that's great, but the outside shot doesn't tend to fall as much on the road and Kentucky is holding opponents to a mere 29.6% from long distance on the season. Wildcats simply should have no problem winning by double-digits at home. Take Kentucky!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Red Dog Sports

Jan 11 '20, 12:00 PM in 1h
Soccer | Napoli vs Lazio
Play on: Lazio +112 at 5Dimes

Lazio +112
The free soccer play takes place in Italy Series A on Saturday. Lazio is 12-2-3 (+23 goals) while Napoli is 6-6-6 (+3 goals). Napoli is 1-3-1 in its last 5 matches.
Napoli 1
Lazio 2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee

Jan 11 '20, 2:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-B | George Mason vs La Salle
Play on: La Salle -3 -107 at pinnacle

10* FREE NCAAB PICK (La Salle -3)
I'll take my chances here with La Salle as a slim 3-point home favorite against George Mason. The Patriots started out the season 11-1, which looks great on paper, but their only win against a team ranked in the Top 135 was a mere 4-point victory against New Mexico State. Out of 353 teams, the Patriots have played the 327th toughest schedule to this point.
It's been all downhill for George Mason since. They closed out non-conference play with a 87-53 loss at TCU and have since opened up A-10 play with home losses to VCU (72-59) and St. Bonaventure (61-49).
I just don't see it getting any better in what will be just their third true road game of the season. Not only did they lose by 34 at TCU, they also lost by 23 at Maryland. I get La Salle isn't on the same level as those two, but the Explorers only two home losses this season have come against Temple and Dayton and the loss to the Owls was by just 5-points.
The Explorers are also a strong 11-4 ATS on the season, as the books just keep undervaluing this squad. Give me La Salle -3!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brad Diamond

Jan 11 '20, 2:00 PM in 3h
Soccer | Strasbourg vs Metz
Play on: Metz +204 at pinnacle

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

Jan 11 '20, 5:05 PM in 6h
NBA | Wolves vs Rockets
Play on: Wolves +11 -105 at pinnacle

Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Minnesota Timberwolves +11
The Minnesota Timberwolves are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have gone 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. All three losses have come by 7 points or less, including a 2-point loss at Milwaukee as 18-point dogs.
The Houston Rockets will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here. I don’t think they warrant being double-digit favorites in this game. They only won by 7 at Atlanta on Wednesday and lost by 21 at Oklahoma City on Thursday. And now the Rockets could be without Clint Capela, who is nursing a heel injury.
The Timberwolves are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as an underdog. Houston is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Timberwolves Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rob Vinciletti

Jan 11 '20, 6:00 PM in 7h
NCAA-B | Texas Tech vs West Virginia
Play on: Texas Tech +4½ -110 at betonline

** Featured Free Play for Saturday **
The NCAAB Comp Play is on Texas Tech plus the points at 6:00 eastern. The Red Raiders have conference tournament revenge here on West Virginia and they fit a powerful system that is hitting over 85% long term for teams that won 25 or more last year and the opponent has a win percentage of .845 or higher. Tech has won 10 of 14 this year despite returning just one tarter from last years magical team. Big red has covered 9 of 10 off 3+ home games an 9 of 10 on Saturdays. West Virginia has failed to cover 4 of 5 after allowing 50 or less and 20 of 29 at home vs a team under .500 on the road. The Mountaineers are off a big revenge win over Ok. St. Take the points with Texas Tech. For the NCAAB Free play. Take the 4-5 point with Texas Tech. Rob V- GC Sports

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Lundin

Jan 11 '20, 7:05 PM in 8h
NBA | Bulls vs Pistons
Play on: UNDER 217 -109

MIKE LUNDIN'S BULLS @ PISTONS FREE PICK
The Detroit Pistons are 23-16 to the over on the season, but I think this Saturday night matchup will the Chicago Bulls will stay under the number.
Chicago is averaging only 105.8 ppg on the season, and its offense has been particularly poor through a current six-game slide. As for the Pistons, the only reason their last game went over the total (a 115-112 loss to Cleveland) was because of OT.
Under is 8-1 in Bulls last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Free pick on UNDER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price

Jan 11 '20, 7:05 PM in 8h
NBA | Bulls vs Pistons
Play on: Pistons -3½ -109 at GTBets

1* Free Pick on Pistons -3½ -109

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn

Jan 11 '20, 7:08 PM in 8h
NHL | Lightning vs Flyers
Play on: Lightning -150 at YouWager

1* Free Play on Lightning -150