Service Plays Wednesday 1/8/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Our best friend is in action and based on his betting and risk levels, I advise a 1 unit play on Georgia Tech +12 over Duke, 1 unit on Xavier -3 over Seton Hall, 1 unit on CS Bakersfield -2 over Cal Baptist, 0.50 unit on CS Bakersfield -130 for the 1st Half, 0.50 units on Davidson/Rhode Island OV67 (1st Half). I would advise a 0.60 unit parlay on Georgia Tech +12, Xavier -3, CS Bakersfield -2, San Francisco -310 over Minnesota and Green Bay/Seattle OV47 (he has placed this wager too but line seems stable so we will wait to follow). Parlay payoff (using CRIS calculator) is 9.60 units.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SHARP TOTALS CLUB
2*Nevada.San Jose St Under 152
2*Long Beach/Northridge Under 156.5

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Greg Shaker
over Iowa state Kansas 143 up to 148

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BEN BURNS
CHL / 563 TOR Over 207.5 Triple-dime bet
Analysis:
I'm playing on Toronto/Charlotte OVER the total. Off a low-scoring loss against Portland last night, the Raptors have now seen five of their last six games fall below the total. I successfully played on the 'over' in the lone one of those which topped the number and I believe this will prove to be another excellent spot to do so. The recent low-scoring results have worked in our favor by providing us with quite a lo~w O/U number, the lowest on the Wed. NBA board. This season's earlier meeting had an O/U line of 214 and finished with 228. The previous three meetings between these teams finished with 224, 229 and 233 points. Unlike Toronto, the Hornets have been primarily involved in high-scoring games lately. Their last three all finished above the total, producing combined scores of 219, 243 and 215. Six of their last eight have finished above the number. On the season, games here are averaging 218.5 points. The last time that the champs played a road game, after having played the previous day, the O/U line was 208 and their game (at Indiana) finished with 235. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting.

BEN BURNS | CBB SIDES WED, 01/08/20 - 7:00 PM
789 Davidson 3.0 (-110) Sportsbook.ag vs 790 Rhode Island
triple-dime bet
Analysis:
I'm playing on DAVIDSON. Both these teams are seeking their first conference win. The Rams may be the favorite but I firmly believe that the Wildcats are the superior team. Keep in mind that Davidson essentially returned everyone from last year's team. That same team handled Rhode Island with relative ease. The Wildcats beat the Rams by 15, at Davidson. Then, they beat them by nine, here at Rhode Island. Yes, Davidson has dealt with some injury issues but it has also played an extremely tough schedule. Off b2b losses, like their hosts, the Cats are going to be highly motivated. Note that Davidson is perfect (2-0 SU/ATS) the past couple of seasons, when coming off b2b road losses. Over the years, Davidson is a dominant 46-16 SU when off a conference road loss. As for the Rams, they're just 2-6 ATS in the favorite role this season. They were~ favored in each of their last two games and lost both outright. While I'm happy to grab the points, I expect an outright win for the visitors.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Eastman
7-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 137.0 Oklahoma at Texas (9 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 8)

This Texas offense has really struggled. They are ranked No. 287 in the country in scoring with just 67.1. Texas has actually scored fewer than 50 points in two of their last three games and I think that they will struggle again here. Oklahoma is No. 67 in the country in field goal defense and they should be able to slow this game down and make Texas work for their points. The Longhorns have been excellent on defense. They are allowing just 60.7 points per game and they are holding opponents below 40 percent shooting from the field. Both teams have gone 'under' in two of their last three games and the 'under' is 4-1 in Texas' last five games after a loss. I don't think that either team is going to score over 70 points in this game. And I don't see this total getting over 130 total points. Take the 'under' here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DWAYNE BRYANT BASKETBALL PLAYS

5% CBB TOTALS SYSTEM MAX BET
Game: (847) Cal Santa Barbara at (848) Cal Poly SLO
Date/Time: Jan 8 2020 10:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 5%
Play: 1H Total Under 62.0 (-110)

View Analysis

10 PM ET -- College Basketball

847 Cal Santa Barbara
848 Cal Poly SLO

PLAY --> 1H UNDER 62

Playable down to 60.5

BET SIZE --> 5%

My college hoops totals system is a combination of relevant statistical data from KenPom.com, history involving similar games (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The size of the play is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TONY FINN BASKETBALL PLAYS

FINNs NBA GAME of the DAY
Game: (563) Toronto Raptors at (564) Charlotte Hornets
Date/Time: Jan 8 2020 7:05 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Charlotte Hornets 3.5 (-110)

View Analysis

PLAY: Charlotte Hornets +3.5 (good to -2)
4% confidence rating
(563) Toronto Raptors at (564) Charlotte Hornets
The Raptors are as short on the bench as any team in the Association, and the eye-test in last nights meltdown makes tonight's contest against the Hornets is a handoff victory from Toronto to Charlotte.
Since the Raptors suffered a handful of critical injuires to Powell and company they are 0-3 against the number in trhe second leg of back-to-backs. And while they are 1-2 straight up all three were struggles to find the bottom of the net and prvent the opposition from easy layups.
This is one of the games in-the late first half of the regular season slate that should be no-brainers -- or better phrased -- don't think so much and trake your self out of a winner. Hornets win on their home floor ad dogs. However the Hornets win by double-digits.
CHARLOTTE HORNETS +3.5

FINNs CBB GAME of the DAY
Game: (785) Notre Dame at (786) NC State
Date/Time: Jan 8 2020 7:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Notre Dame 5.0 (-110)

View Analysis

PLAY: Notre Dame Fighting Irish +5 (good to +2)
4% confidence rating
(785) Notre Dame at (786) NC State
The public still find the Irish as a middling ACC squad in the basketball container. John Mooney is one of the best +/- players in all of college hoops. If there is a tick for Notre Dame it is their non-con slate, one of the lowest in Division 1 according to KenPom (324th ranked schedule in the nation).
The truth is that if you look at KenPom's underlying peripherals in relation to the Irish you will find nothing, save their adjusted defensive lines, that will initially be impressive.

The defense has been key for the Wolfpack and the success they have had on their home floor. But this is easily the most deceptive number the Pack wear on their sleeve. They have not faced a team at home that challenged them to be better, to get better, and according to KenPom their national ranking as a effective defense squad says everything bur (218th in points allowed at 70.6 ppg).

NC State has surrendered just 65.2 ppg at home so far, compared to allowing 80.4 ppg on the road. But only two of their nine home games have been against teams from a Power Six Conference while three of their five road games have been against such teams.

Notre Dane is coming off a confidence-building road win over the Syracuse Orange in a game where their offense got going. The defense has been solid for Notre Dame and while the feeling from my ACC Insider is that NC State will again be without their top scorer, CJ Bryce.

NC State, over the last two games, defeated Appalachian State but lost to Clemson, without Bryce and make no mistake this Irish group is much more capable than Ap State or Clemson on any given night.
NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH +5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DR. CHUCK 1/8/20

BASKETBALL PLAYS

Game: (569) San Antonio Spurs at (570) Boston Celtics
Date/Time: Jan 8 2020 7:05 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 222.0 (-108)

View Analysis

Kemba is back...Spurs are hot...Popp can't get his guys to play D like he would like....but they sure as hell have been showing out on offense
Spurs are 13 for 13 to the Over as a dog after being a dog....a relatively new spot for the Pop Spurs and one that is lucrative to the Over...by an average of nearly 15 points covering per game!
Game: (565) Miami Heat at (566) Indiana Pacers
Date/Time: Jan 8 2020 7:05 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Indiana Pacers 0.0 (-115)

View Analysis

Spread like this or the ML on the 1H, whatever you can get...same deal...good enough...
Pacers are 14-5 ATS in the first half...are solid at home already and with Winslow back on the other side with the Heat on the road not quite looking they have throughout this season... I think incorporating Justise into the lineup takes a few quarters to get the hang of...Oladipo just announced an official date and the roster as currently constituted knows they have 3 more weeks to hold off the water in the boat...I think that gives them a little extra motivation especialy early tonight!
Game: (563) Toronto Raptors at (564) Charlotte Hornets
Date/Time: Jan 8 2020 7:05 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Charlotte Hornets 2.5 (-110)

View Analysis

Raptors in a terrible spot here...not only on a B2B plus travel, but they screwed the pooch late last night after leading the whole game then losing it in the 4th quarter to the road weary Blazers at the hands of turn back the clock Melo and a last second game winner! Same injuries as last night, although it might be even more serious on a back to back where they gave it their EVERY effort last night at home.
Terrible spot and of course those who aren't new to me know I don't need a TON of extra incentive to back Devonte and Borrego and Co. with the constant VALUE they present night in and night out!
Game: (563) Toronto Raptors at (564) Charlotte Hornets
Date/Time: Jan 8 2020 7:05 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 207.0 (-108)

View Analysis

Raptors on the road on a back to back and the ONLY thing they have going for them tonight is the defense...and the Hornets are a solid side for that aspect as well....thank god for NBA 2020 and the state of the game...because this is a total that screams sub-200 more than any Vegas total I've seen in a while....and damn straight if this were pre-GSW this would be Vegas hanging a 195 on this bad boy!
12-1 to the Under spot last 13 trend!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bezobets

NCAA Basketball: Connecticut -11 @ 1.909/-110 (3 Units)
NCAA Basketball: Wisconsin -4.5 @ 1.964/-104 (3 Units)
NCAA Basketball: North Carolina -4.5 @ 1.909/-110 (3 Units)
NCAA Basketball: Kansas -2.5 1st Half @ 1.87/-115 (2 Units)
NCAA Basketball: Auburn -8 1st Half @ 1.909/-110 (2 Units)

[Calidreaming]

C Jordan 800 play on Duquesne

Spreitzer 7* play on North Carolina 1st Half

big Al nba total on over in Toronto game

[Calidreaming]

Burns over in Toronto

Big Al on Bucks

apologies for assigning that one to wrong person

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DR. CHUCK ADD-ON

Game: (571) Denver Nuggets at (572) Dallas Mavericks
Date/Time: Jan 8 2020 7:35 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Denver Nuggets 3.0 (-108)

View Analysis

Just flat out non-sensical!
Nuggets haven't been playing the D I would like to have seen recently...but despite the 125 defensive rating the last 5 games...they have Millsap back and Porzingod is OUT....yet the Mavs are still the hot play?
Nah...great 65% trend in our favor tonight and 25-12 last 37 ATS
Game: (573) Houston Rockets at (574) Atlanta Hawks
Date/Time: Jan 8 2020 7:35 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Total Under 122.0 (-110)

View Analysis

Like buttah....Hawks at home in the 1H are 13-4 to the Under...and they are usually huge...this one is as well...but with Collins in the lineup as well as Huerter and only really missing Jabari I think the Hawks give the kind of effort for Pierce they have been showing of late....hold your nose and hope no Russ helps as well....probably wouldn't go ALL the way to the full game Under...but first half feels almost too easy!
Game: (577) New York Knicks at (578) Utah Jazz
Date/Time: Jan 8 2020 9:05 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Utah Jazz -14.0 (-108)

View Analysis

NOT entirely sure what number I WOULDN'T lay here in this spot.
Knicks:
- on no rest
- back to back with travel now in altitude
- no Julius Randle or Marcus Morris, maybe Mitchell Robinson (as if Gobert neede any extra help in this spot)
- 2 games in a row in LA with party nights apart and a 30 point loss last night to the Lakers with an iffy LBJ and hurt AD
- back at MSG on Friday to stay for awhile
Jazz:
- healthy
- home and have won 5 in a row including sweeping a 3 game road trip....which also isn't that bad of a trip to worry about a lag back home
- don't face a team that has the ability to score....even with Randle they couldn't muster 90 points!

This number is a bargain...I might lay 20 here...and really I am banking on the Jazz caring...but with the recent form I highly doubt a team like the Jazz has the locker room "ability" to get complacent...they will be fighting tooth and nail for the playoffs this season...and especially for a home series...and games like this cannot be taken for granted...as they are not the Lakers or Clippers
120-90 feels like the WORST case scenario to me....call me crazy!
Game: (851) Long Beach State at (852) CS Northridge
Date/Time: Jan 8 2020 10:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Long Beach State 6.0 (-108)

View Analysis

Wow...Northridge laying a half dozen points? Sheesh...in league play...I know they're at home and LBSU is hard to trust...but nowhere near this hard and I honestly think the Beach could win this game! Monson played a crazy murderers row schedule to open and even beat Providence and San Diego OUTRIGHT. CSN isn't as well prepared for this matchup in my analysis

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SEABASS: 300 WYOMING, 400 GA Tech, 300 Marist, 300 W Forest, 500 miss st/ Alabama over the total, 400 Arkansas, 400 Celtics, 400 Pacers, 400 Bucks

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Hartstein

MILWAUKEE -13.5
MILWAUKEE @ GOLDEN ST. | 1/08 | 10:00 PM EST
6:28 PM
It's a big number to lay on the road, but not when you consider the Bucks are coming off their worst loss of the season. They're facing a Warriors team that's lost five straight, most recently falling 111-98 to Sacramento, and will be missing D'Angelo Russell again. Look for a focused effort from the 32-6 Bucks.

43-30-1 IN LAST 74 NBA ATS PICKS | +1010
42-31-2 IN LAST 75 GS ATS PICKS | +880

OVER 220.5
DENVER @ DALLAS | 1/08 | 7:30 PM EST
6:20 PM
The Over has cashed in six straight Nuggets games and I like that trend to continue Wednesday in Dallas. Denver is wrapping up a five-game road trip, with the Nuggets allowing 115, 128, 116 and 130 in the first four. Go Over.

44-32-1 IN LAST 77 NBA PICKS | +890

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Michael Rusk

MILWAUKEE -13.5
MILWAUKEE @ GOLDEN ST. | 1/08 | 10:00 PM EST
5:43 PM
The Bucks have failed to cover in their last three games. This is one of the few times this season that they are at a decent spot in the market. Putting this matchup in perspective, Milwaukee is the second-best team in the league in scoring and field-goal percentage as it faces a Warriors team that has won nine games and is second-to-last in field-goal percentage. The Bucks will come out absolutely firing in this one and it could get out of hand early. I wouldn't be surprised if Milwaukee is covering by halftime.

13-3 IN LAST 16 NBA PICKS | +974
3-1 IN LAST 4 GS ATS PICKS | +190

2-1 IN LAST 3 MIL ATS PICKS | +91

CHICAGO +3.5
CHICAGO @ NEW ORLEANS | 1/08 | 8:00 PM EST
5:38 PM
With G Jrue Holiday (elbow) out, the Pelicans are just a different team. I have this game as a pick 'em. The Bulls are gritty but are struggling both straight up and against the spread of late. Vegas has this team way too low on the totem pole here. The Bulls money line at +150 isn't a bad play either. Chicago gets back on track in this one.

13-3 IN LAST 16 NBA PICKS | +974
ORLANDO -9
WASHINGTON @ ORLANDO | 1/08 | 7:00 PM EST
5:34 PM
We are fading the Wizards at a very opportune time as they are coming off back-to-back unbelievable wins as major underdogs. With almost half of their team out with injuries, they have managed the beat Boston and Denver while getting nine and 13 points, respectively. Washington now faces a major test against a Magic team that has played significantly better at home than on the road. Earlier this month, Orlando posted a 21-point win over the Wizards in their building. Look for a similar result in this one.

13-3 IN LAST 16 NBA PICKS | +974
4-1 IN LAST 5 WAS ATS PICKS | +291