Sunday 1-19-20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-19-2020, 06:50 AM

AFC Championship

Tennessee at Kansas City

Sunday, Jan. 19 (CBS, 3:05 p.m. ET)

Titans Road Record: 7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS, 5-5 O/U
Chiefs Home Record: 6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS, 6-3 O/U

Record versus Playoff Teams
Includes Wild Card and Divisional Results

Tennessee: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS, 3-4 O/U
Kansas City: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS, 6-1 O/U

Opening Odds

After the Chiefs rallied past the Texans in the AFC divisional round, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook sent out Kansas City as a 7 ½-point home favorite with a total of 52.

Head-to-Head

These teams met in Week 10 of the 2018 regular season and Tennessee shocked Kansas City, 35-32 as a five-point home underdog. Kansas City built a 10-0 advantage and led 29-20 in the fourth quarter before Tennessee came back with a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns, capped off by a Ryan Tannehill touchdown strike to Adam Humphries in the final minute. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw for 446 yards and three touchdown passes, while Titans running back Derrick Henry rushed for 188 yards and two touchdowns in the win.

Kansas City struggled against the AFC South in the regular season by losing three of four contests, but rebounded with the blowout win over Houston in the divisional round. Tennessee posted a 3-1 record against AFC West foes this season by beating Kansas City, Oakland, and Los Angeles, while getting shut out at Denver.

Playoff Notes

Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel improved to 2-0 in the postseason in his short coaching career with wins at New England and Baltimore. The defense has allowed a total of 25 points in the two playoff wins, as Tennessee dominated top-seeded Baltimore, 28-12 to advance to the franchise's first AFC championship since 2002.

Kansas City head coach Andy Reid owns a 13-14 career record in the playoffs, while the Chiefs have gone 2-3 under Reid in the playoffs at Arrowhead Stadium. The first win came in last year’s Divisional Playoff round against Indianapolis (31-13). Prior to the win over the Colts last season, Kansas City had dropped six straight at home in the playoffs with the last win coming in 1994.

The Chiefs met the Titans in the 2017 Wild Card round and led Tennessee, 21-3 at halftime. However, the Titans rallied by outscoring the Chiefs, 19-0 in the second half to stun Kansas City, 22-21 as 8 ½-point road underdogs. Kansas City is playing in its second consecutive AFC championship game after falling short against New England in overtime last season.

It's been a long time for Kansas City in the Super Bowl as the franchise last made it in 1969 when the Chiefs dominated the Vikings in Super Bowl IV. Tennessee last played in a Super Bowl in 1999 as the Titans lost to the Rams, 23-16.

Total Notes

Tennessee has seen its total results produce a stalemate (5-5) on the road this season and the defense (12.5 PPG) has really stepped up in the playoffs. Since Tannehill took over at QB for the Titans, the club has scored 20-plus points in all six of their road games with him under center and that’s produced a 4-2 ‘over’ mark.

Kansas City has watched the ‘over’ go 6-3 at Arrowhead Stadium this season, which the easy high side (50 ½) ticket in the Divisional Playoffs. Including the game versus Houston, the Chiefs have hosted five playoff teams and the ‘over’ is 5-0 in those games and the defense (28.9 PPG) hasn’t been sharp.

The Chiefs have seen balanced total results (5-5) with Reid in the playoffs. Vrabel has seen the ‘under’ connect in two playoff games as coach. In the Week 10 matchup from Nashville, the pair combined for 67 points and the ‘over’ (49) rather easily but it was also helped with 41 points in the second-half.

Prior to this game, the ‘under’ was on a 3-0 run in this series dating back to 2014 and that includes the 2018 Wild Card matchup. In the Titans’ 22-21 upset over the Chiefs, the total closed at 44 ½.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-19-2020, 06:50 AM

AFC Championship Trends

Since 1970, home teams have posted a 34-15 record in the AFC Championship.
In the last 10 years, hosts have gone 8-2 (80%) in the AFC Championship. During this span, bettors have seen their fair share of close calls and blowouts as five games were decided by double digits and the other five by six points or less.
In the first 49 games of the AFC Championship, favorites have gone 35-14 SU and 28-20-1 ATS.
Favorites and Underdogs have gone 5-5 ATS in the last 10 AFC title games.
Since the 1986-87 AFC Championship game, the 'under' has gone 17-16 in the title game. Over the last eight seasons, the 'under' is on a 6-2 run in this conference title game.
Kansas City has made two appearances in the AFC title game, going 0-2 both SU and ATS.
Tennessee has gone 1-1 both SU and ATS in the AFC Championship, both of those contests took place on the road.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-19-2020, 06:50 AM

Green Bay at San Francisco

Sunday, Jan. 19 (FOX, 6:40 p.m. ET)

Packers Road Record: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS, 3-5 O/U
49ers Home Record: 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS, 4-5 O/U

2019 Record versus Playoff Teams
Includes Wild Card and Divisional Results

Green Bay: 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, 3-3 O/U
San Francisco: 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS, 2-3-1 O/U

Opening Odds

Both San Francisco and Green Bay won at home in the divisional round as the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the 49ers as a 7 ½-point home favorite with a total of 45.

Head-to-Head

The 49ers rolled the Packers in a Sunday night affair in Week 12 as three-point favorites, 37-8. San Francisco built a 23-0 halftime lead as Green Bay's lone touchdown came in the third quarter on an Aaron Rodgers touchdown pass. Rodgers was limited to 104 yards passing, while 49ers' quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 253 yards and two touchdowns, including a 61-yard scoring strike to tight end George Kittle.

That loss was that last one for Green Bay, who has won six straight games, including the blowout of Seattle in the divisional round. Since 2012, the 49ers have captured five of seven meetings with the Packers, while Green Bay has lost in three of its past four visits to the Bay Area.

The Packers are 1-4 in their last five games against NFC West opponents since 2018, while the 49ers are 2-3 since the start of last season against NFC North foes.

Playoff Notes

Green Bay won its first playoff game since 2016 in a divisional round victory over Seattle at Lambeau Field. Packers head coach Matt LaFleur improved to 1-0 in the playoffs after winning his playoff debut, while Rodgers owns a 10-7 career record in the playoffs as a starter. However, the Packers have lost their last two NFC championship games, each on the road at Seattle (2014) and Atlanta (2016). The last time Green Bay won an NFC title game on the road came in 2010 at Chicago, which also marked their most recent trip to the Super Bowl, which they won against Pittsburgh.

San Francisco dominated Minnesota in its first playoff game since the 2013-14 season in a 27-10 blowout in the divisional round. The 49ers are playing in their first NFC championship since 2013, when they lost at Seattle. San Francisco is hosting its first conference title game since 2011 when the Niners were tripped up by the Giants in overtime, 20-17.

The Packers and 49ers met in the playoffs in four consecutive seasons from 1995-1998 as Green Bay won three of four times. In 2012 and 2013, San Francisco knocked out Green Bay twice, including at home in the divisional playoffs, 45-31 in 2012. The only time these teams have hooked up in the NFC Championship came in 1997 at Candlestick Park as the Packers won, 23-10.

Total Notes

In the Week 12 meeting between the pair, the Packers were held to a season-low eight points and the the 'under' (48) was never in doubt despite San Francisco scoring 37 points. Green Bay also laid an egg in its other trip to California this season, losing 26-11 at the L.A. Chargers in Week 9.

Green Bay’s total results had a tail of two seasons as the ‘over’ started 5-3 through the first eight games but the ‘under’ produced a 7-1 mark down the stretch. Sunday's 28-23 win over Seattle watched the 'over' (45) connect.

Including the result versus the Seahawks, the Packers have watched the 'over' go 6-1 in their last seven playoff games and five of them have taken place on the road.

The Niners' 27-10 win over the Vikings in the Divisional Round watched the 'under' (44 ½) connect easily. Including that result, San Francisco has watched the ‘under’ cash in its last four playoff games.

Prior to the Minnesota outcome, San Francisco watched the ‘over’ go 7-2-1 down the stretch before starting the season with a 5-1 ‘under’ mark.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-19-2020, 06:50 AM

NFC Championship Trends

Since the NFC Championship began in 1970, home teams have posted a 32-17 record in the title game.
In the last 10 years, visitors have shown more fight in this title game as the home team was only able to produce a 6-4 record in the NFC Championship. Those last four wins by the road teams weren't easy as the victories came by seven points or less and three were decided by exactly three points.
Favorites have gone 32-17 SU and 26-22-1 ATS in the NFC Championship.
Since the 1987-88 NFC Championship game, the 'over' has gone 18-14 in the title game. Over the last five seasons, the 'over' is on a 4-1 run in this conference title game.
San Francisco has been in the NFC title game 15 times, going 6-9 overall. Surprisingly, the club has gone 4-5 at home but this will be the first NFC Championship played at Levi's Stadium. Its last trip to the NFC Championship came in the 2013-14 season and they lost to Seattle 23-17 on the road.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-19-2020, 06:51 AM

NFC & AFC Betting Angles
Marc Lawrence

And then there were four.

NFL’s version of the ‘Final Four’ kicks off this Sunday in the Championship Games where surprises have certainly been the buzzword.

That’s confirmed by the fact that underdogs have managed to pull off upsets in 19 of 41 title games since the 1990 season, the most recent being both the Los Angeles Rams and the New England Patriots last year. More important, 12 of the 19 underdog winners went on to win the Super Bowl, going 12-7 SU and 14-4-1 ATS in the big game.

Let’s take a quick look at what’s worked and what hasn’t in the Championship Games, because when it comes to handicapping games at this stage of the season we can certainly use every edge imaginable.

What A Rush

Running the football is tantamount to success in the NFL, especially in the playoffs. See the Tennessee Titans this postseason.

It’s no coincidence teams who have managed to rush the ball for 100 or more yards in conference championship games are 29-16 SU and 31-13-1 ATS.

And when they manage to crack the 100-yard barrier on the ground against foes coming off a satisfying double-digit win, they zoom to 20-5 ATS in these games.

The Kansas City Chiefs allow more than 129 rushing yards per game at home this season.

Situationally Speaking

The oddsmakers have done a nice job overall balancing the books during this round, with favorites checking in at 31-28-1 ATS, and home teams 30-29-1 ATS.

Meanwhile, underdogs of 8 or more points are 12-6 ATS.

That could be music to the ears of Tennessee backers.

Gravity Alert

While high-scoring games tend to be the norm in the NFL these days, teams arriving to the championship round off a high-scoring effort in their last game have a tendency to come back to earth harder than a skydiver with a faulty chute.

Consider: only 11 of the 19 teams that scored 40 or more points in their Divisional Round victory have managed to win in this round, while going 6-12-1 ATS as well.

Worse, if these same teams are at home they are just 3-9 ATS.

That puts Kansas City on hard ground this Sunday.

Over There

Points aplenty in this league of late have forced the odds makers to raise the Over/Under totals bar.

Its what happens when there have been 34 OVERS and 23 UNDERS with 2 pushes in Championship Games.

Surprisingly, the higher the total the more OVERS there have been as games with a posted total set at 49 or more points going 7-3-1 OVER.

Stat Of The Week

The Green Bay Packers are 9-1 in one-possession games this season. They were 2-6-1 in one-possession games last season.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-19-2020, 06:51 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Conference Championships

Sunday, January 19

Tennessee @ Kansas City

Game 313-314
January 19, 2020 @ 3:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
144.561
Kansas City
144.211
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
Even
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 7 1/2
52
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+7 1/2); Under

Green Bay @ San Francisco

Game 311-312
January 19, 2020 @ 6:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
136.406
San Francisco
139.188
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 3
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 7
45
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(+7); Under

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-19-2020, 06:51 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Conference Championships

Saturday, January 19

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GREEN BAY (14 - 3) at SAN FRANCISCO (14 - 3) - 1/19/2020, 6:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 199-145 ATS (+39.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 76-49 ATS (+22.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-1 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (11 - 7) at KANSAS CITY (13 - 4) - 1/19/2020, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
KANSAS CITY is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
KANSAS CITY is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in playoff games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 2-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 2-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-19-2020, 06:51 AM

NFL

Conference Championships

Trend Report
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Sunday, January 19

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games at home
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Kansas City's last 9 games when playing Tennessee
Kansas City is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Kansas City is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Tennessee is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Tennessee's last 12 games
Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 9 games when playing Kansas City
Tennessee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City

San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
San Francisco is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games
San Francisco is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games at home
San Francisco is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay
San Francisco is 7-13-3 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Green Bay
San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay
San Francisco is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 10 games when playing Green Bay
San Francisco is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games
Green Bay is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Green Bay is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
Green Bay is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games when playing San Francisco
Green Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 10 games when playing San Francisco

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-19-2020, 06:52 AM

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Championship Sunday odds: Punch your ticket on the Titans' train now
Jason Logan

This Sunday will be the Titans’ fourth straight road game going back to Week 17 but with the way they’re playing on both sides of the ball, that tough sked may not matter to NFL bettors.

One of the four remaining NFL playoff teams will hoist the Lombardi Trophy in Miami, but that’s still a few weeks away. Football bettors are more concerned with this Sunday’s conference championship games and where the odds will end up by kickoff.

Senior industry analyst Jason Logan looks at the spreads and totals for the NFC and AFC Championship Games, monitors the line adjustments and market trends, and helps get you ahead to the moves with his best bets to make now and which ones you should make later.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: TENNESSEE TITANS (+7.5) AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The Titans are making believers out of bettors, who snatched up the opening odds in Las Vegas which had Tennessee as big as +9.5 in Kansas City for the AFC Championship Game. Most books opened this matchup at Chiefs -7.5 (after watching that early action at select sportsbooks) but that number could get walked down to a clean touchdown sooner rather than later.

The vig on Kansas City -7.5 has been discounted as books try to entice some handle on the home side. The Chiefs’ thrilling comeback was something to behold, digging themselves out of a 24-0 hole versus the Texans in the Divisional Round, but they did have to fall into that hole to begin with.

This will be the Titans’ fourth straight road game going back to Week 17 but with the way they’re playing on both sides of the ball, that tough sked may not matter to NFL bettors. If you’re taking the Tennessee train to the book this weekend, grab the Titans and the hook now just to be careful.

SPREAD TO BET LATER: GREEN BAY PACKERS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-7)

According to the early reports, bookies are expecting even action on the NFC title game. The spread has mostly stayed at a touchdown with some brief drops to San Francisco -6.5 before buyback on the chalk returned it to seven.

Both teams are well backed at the book, so this line should stay steady heading toward kickoff Sunday night. With the 49ers getting roped into parlays and teasers and Cheeseheads going all in on the Packers’ moneyline, those pots should continue to balance the overall handle for this game.

If you do like the Niners, there are some spots rolling back the price on San Francisco -7 and that discount in vig could indicate a line move to -6.5. Plug this sucker into your Covers Live App, be patient, and shop around when the alert hits your phone.

TOTAL TO BET NOW: OVER 51.5 TENNESSEE TITANS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The Chiefs spotted Houston a 24-point head start and still covered as double-digit faves in the AFC Divisional Round. That offensive showcase – scoring 51 points in 45 minutes or 1.13 points per minute (yikes) – is fueling the early move up for this total, which has climbed from 51 to as high as 52 points at some markets.

The Titans defense has been the backbone of Tennessee’s postseason run, locking down the Patriots for 13 points then absolutely draining the energy from the top scoring attack in the NFL, holding Baltimore to 12 points in the Divisional Round. But this Titans offensive attack can put up points of its own – as bettors saw in the second half of the regular season – and just scored 28 against a very good Baltimore stop unit.

The Chiefs are 6-3 Over/Under inside Arrowhead Stadium this season, allowing about four points more per home game than on the road. The weather in Missouri will cool down by the weekend but the extended forecast for Sunday is calling for clear skies and little to no wind as of Monday morning. If you’re thinking about betting the Over for the AFC Championship Game, you will want to get it quickly before we see all books serving 52 points or higher.

TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 45 GREEN BAY PACKERS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

The Over/Under for the NFC Championship Game opened at 45 and has remained still in the 12 hours since posting. There has been slight tinkering with the juice at select sportsbooks but nothing big that would indicate a knee-jerk move up or down.

The 49ers defense looked reborn in the Divisional Round with key bodies returning at all levels. San Francisco was limiting opponents to less than 15 points per game in the first 13 weeks of the season but watched that stop unit come apart due to injuries in the final four weeks of the schedule. The Packers defense also looked good in the Divisional Round, getting some crucial stops and sacking Seattle QB Russell Wilson five times.

Looking at past conference championship games, there has been a market trend toward the Under. In the last three NFL postseasons, the totals for the AFC/NFC title game has ticked downward by a couple points off the opener in four of those six matchups. That said, the Over is 4-2 in those championship contests. If you’re on the fence about the total, see if Under money shows up again (and it might with an Over/Under count of 2-6 this postseason) and then make the call.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-19-2020, 06:52 AM

LOOKING AHEAD

The Super Bowl may be more than two weeks away but there's no reason why we can’t put down some bets on future Super Bowl MVPs.

The best long shot we see is a running back who took the majority of his team’s snaps last week - a team that's favored by more than a touchdown at home this week. Tevin Coleman out-touched Raheem Mostert 22 to 12 and ran for 102 yards and two touchdowns versus a Top-10 defense in the Divisional Round. This week, he gets Green Bay’s No. 23 DVOA rush defense and could be facing the Kansas City Chiefs’ No. 29 DVOA rush defense on Super Sunday.

A running back hasn’t won the Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis did it in 1998 and since that time 13 quarterbacks, four wide receivers, three linebackers and a safety have won the award. But with Coleman sporting +8,000 odds to win the MVP, we're taking a stab as the other three top running backs still in the playoffs are +1,200, +2,500 and +3,300, giving Coleman great value.

KING OF THE HILL

Tennessee and Kansas City battled in Week 10 this year with the Titans getting the victory, 35-32. It was the first game that Patrick Mahomes played after his knee injury and the Kansas City QB set season highs in attempts (50), completions (36) and yards (446). Tyreek Hill also set season highs in receptions (11) and yards (157) and will square off again against the Titans’ secondary that allowed 88.4 yards to teams’ No. 1 receivers this year, which was the second-highest amount in the league.

With Travis Kelce going off for 10-134-3 last week, we expect the tight end to receive a lot of attention. If Hill sees single coverage, he could top his yardage totals in as little as two plays. Hill has not topped 75 yards since Week 10 versus the Titans, which is why we're getting a reasonable total of 75.5 receiving yards. He wasn’t that far off, though, hitting 60-plus yards in four of his last games — those extra dozen yards are just one missed tackle for the 4.25 speedster.

We aren’t expecting a repeat of Week 10, but with Kelce stuffing the stat sheet last week we like the chances of Hill getting loose on Sunday. Take the Over 75.5 receiving yards on Hill’s total.

CAMPING WITH COLEMAN

Remember when we tooted the horn of Tevin Coleman? Good, because there's more Coleman value to be had this weekend. Coleman saw 46 percent of the backfield snaps last week with Raheem Mostert getting 34 percent and No. 3 Matt Breida getting a handful of late touches and absorbing 17 percent.

The 49ers ran 68 offensive plays versus the Vikings and ran the ball 47 times and there's no reason for them to deviate from a successful game plan if they get an early lead again.

Coleman averaged 4.1 yards per carry this year, but that number jumped north of five over the last four weeks of the season — in limited usage. The Packers allowed 4.7 yards per carry (24th) on the year and 5.2 yards per carry in Weeks 15-17 (28th). Last week, the Packers didn’t face much of a running threat in Seattle, but they did allow the 49ers to run for 112 yards on 5.1 ypc back in Week 9. We're grabbing the Over on Coleman’s rushing total of 42.5 yards.

TANNEHILL TURNOVER

Even without their best pass-rusher in Chris Jones, the Kansas City Chiefs still managed five sacks on a mobile QB last week. Jones is still questionable against a Tennessee offensive line that has had its QB sacked just once in its last three games. However, if K.C. can get up early — easier said than done — and force Ryan Tannehill to pass, it will greatly increase its chances of creating pressure.

In games that Tannehill has passed more than 23 times (six games), the QB has thrown five interceptions. Although Deshaun Watson never threw an interception in his 52 passes last week, there were plenty of opportunities for the Chiefs - spots that they can capitalize on this Sunday.

We are taking the Over on Tannehill’s Over 0.5 interceptions as Kansas City has averaged 0.9 interceptions at home this year.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-19-2020, 06:52 AM

Total Talk - Championships
Chris David

Divisional Playoff Weekend Recap

After watching the ‘under’ go 4-0 in the Wild Card Weekend, the low side trend continued in the Divisional Playoffs on Saturday with another pair of winning tickets. The ‘over’ tickets finally showed up on Sunday and bettors pressing their bets with first and second-half wagers may’ve been able to recoup their losses from the previous six outcomes as they cashed easily. Through eight games, the ‘under’ sits at 6-2 in this year’s postseason.

Playoff Betting Results

Conference Championship History

Prior to last year’s 37-31 overtime shootout at Arrowhead between the Patriots and Chiefs, the ‘under’ was on a 6-1 run in this title game. Meanwhile, the NFC has been the exact opposite with the ‘over’ go 4-1 in the last five title games and even though last year’s result between the Rams and Saints went ‘under’ the number, the pair still combined for 49 points. That particular game was the fourth NFC Championship to see overtime in the last 10 years and we’ve seen even total results (2-2) in those tilts despite the extra session.

Championship Total History (2009-2019)

Year AFC (UNDER 6-4) NFC (OVER 6-4)
2018-2019 New England 37 at Kansas City 31 (OT) - OV 56.5 Los Angeles 26 New Orleans 23 (OT) - UN 55
2017-2018 New England 24 vs. Jacksonville 20 - UN 46 Philadelphia 38 vs. Minnesota 7 - OV 39
2016-2017 New England 36 vs. Pittsburgh 17 - OV 49.5 Atlanta 44 vs. Green Bay 21 - OV 61
2015-2016 Denver 20 vs. New England 18 - UN 45 Carolina 49 vs. Arizona 15 - OV 47.5
2014-2015 New England 45 vs. Indianapolis 7 - UN 52.5 Seattle 28 vs. Green Bay 22 (OT) - OV 47
2013-2014 Denver 26 vs. New England 16 UN 57 Seattle 23 vs. San Francisco 17 - UN 40.5
2012-2013 Baltimore 28 at New England 13 - UN 49.5 San Francisco 28 at Atlanta 24 - OV 48
2011-2012 New England 23 vs. Baltimore 20 - UN 49 New York 20 at San Francisco 17 (OT) - UN 42
2010-2011 Pittsburgh 24 vs. N.Y. Jets 19 - OV 38 Green Bay 21 at Chicago 14 - UN 42
2009-2010 Indianapolis 30 vs. N.Y. Jets 17 - OV 40 New Orleans 31 vs. Minnesota 28 (OT) - OV 54

The Kansas City Chiefs have watched the ‘over/under’ go 1-1 in their two appearances in the AFC Championship while the Titans have watched the ‘over’ connect in their two visits to the conference title game. Make a note that Tennessee played both games on the road and they averaged 28.5 points per game while going 1-1.

Green Bay has played in the NFC Championship seven times and the ‘over’ has gone 5-2 in those contests. San Francisco has made more title appearances than any other NFL team, 15 in total. The club has gone 6-9 and the ‘under’ has gone 6-4 in the 10 games listed with a total.

Best Bet Selections

For the second consecutive weekend, I fired six plays and ended up breaking even at 3-3. It didn’t look good early with a 0-3 mark on Saturday but the ‘over’ winners on Sunday got us to 6-6 through 12 picks of the playoffs. As always, you can hear all the analysis for the AFC and NFC Championship on the Bet and Collect Podcast this weekend.

As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Tennessee at Kansas City (CBS, 3:05 p.m. ET)

Oddsmakers at DraftKings (**NJ & PA Only) opened this matchup at 51 ½ and the number has been pushed up to 52 ½ as of Thursday. A few Las Vegas betting shops are holding 53 despite low temperatures in the twenties expected at Arrowhead Stadium this Sunday. Tennessee (10-8) and Kansas City (9-8) have both leaned to the ‘over’ this season and based on their offensive performances in the Divisional Playoff round, you can see why the number quickly moved up.

Even though points are expected by the oddsmakers, the old boxing adage ‘styles make fights’ certainly fits this year’s AFC Championship matchup and your total wager will likely be correlated to your side wager.

We’ve seen the Titans knock off three straight division winners on the road and they did it with their defense, holding the Texans, Patriots and Ravens to 14 points or less. To be fair, Houston laid down in Week 17 and New England wasn’t an offensive power this season by its standards but holding the Ravens to just three scores (2 FGs, 1 TD) on the road was eye-opening. If Tennessee completes this run, it would be unprecedented and the finale is easily the toughest test.

Kansas City is coming off a 51-31 win over Houston last Sunday in the Divisional Playoff round at home and the offense was unstoppable after the first quarter as quarterback Patrick Mahomes tossed five touchdowns. Mahomes improved to 2-1 in his young career in the playoffs and the Chiefs haven’t been held to less 31 points in any of those games.

This contest is a rematch from Week 10 of this year's regular season and Kansas City will be looking to avenge a 35-32 loss to the Titans at Nashville. Mahomes was on fire in that game too, throwing for 433 yards and three touchdowns but key penalties and special teams mistakes cost the Chiefs. They put up seven scores that day at Nissan Stadium, settling for four field goals and they missed two attempts as well. If Kansas City connected like it did in the final 45 minutes last Sunday, it probably would’ve posted 50-plus on Tennessee as well. The Titans only put up 371 yards of offense against the Chiefs in their win and seven of the 35 points came from the Tennessee defense, a fumble return touchdown.

Touchdowns have been a common theme for Tennessee and it’s a large reason why it’s been a great ‘over’ team since QB Ryan Tannehill became the starter in Week 7. The Titans have only made eight field goals all season, which is absolutely crazy. In their last eight games, Tennessee has seen the endzone 40 times and it’s only kicked one field goal and none in the playoffs. Crazy, righ!? You don’t have to be a genius to know that putting sixes on the board instead of threes are huge for ‘over’ tickets and the high side has gone 9-3 with Tannehill at QB. In the playoffs, the defense has helped the ‘under’ go 2-0 despite the team averaging 24 points per game.

Fearless Predictions - Over/Under Picks

What’s impressive about the offensive numbers for the Titans is that they’re doing it with a ground attack behind running back Derrick Henry. Knowing Tannehill has only completed 15 passes in two playoffs games is another stat that seems unbelievable. I thought Tennessee would run out of gas last week but I was proved wrong and so were many other bettors. So why fade now? Well, the offense has been on fire but what happens when it doesn't click? The Titans scored 28 last Saturday but 14 of those points came on two big plays and the other pair of touchdowns were set up with short tracks (35 yards, 20 yards) from Baltimore turnovers. We're all well aware that the KC offense showed us how dangerous it could be last week but during the regular season, it averaged 24.3 PPG after scoring 30-plus points in its previous game. Tennessee has only seen one total close in the fifties this season, an inflated Week 10 number versus Houston, and the ‘under’ cashed. Even though Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has Mahomes, let's not forget that we've seen him tighten up in the postseason before and I could totally see him bleeding the clock early and often. My leans for this game are Tennessee Team Total Under (21 ½) and the Under (53) for the game as well. I’ll call it Kansas City 26 Tennessee 15.

Green Bay at San Francisco (FOX, 6:40 p.m. ET)

Oddsmakers sent out a solid opening total of 45 on the NFC Championship and the number has held steady as of Thursday at DraftKings (**NJ & PA Only) and other major books in the US.

San Francisco has produced great back-and-forth total results (8-8-1) all season and that includes the ‘under’ (44 ½) ticket in last Saturday’s 27-10 home win over Minnesota in the Divisional Playoffs. Green Bay watched the ‘over’ (45 ½) cash last Sunday evening as it held off Seattle 28-23 at home and that result snapped a 4-0 ‘under’ run by the Packers. Including that outcome, the ‘under’ has gone 10-7 for the Packers this season and that includes a 5-3 mark on the road.

Similar to the AFC Championship, this is a rematch from the regular season and the first encounter wasn’t close as San Francisco blasted Green Bay 37-8 on the Sunday Night Football spot in Week 12. QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packers couldn’t do anything that night, getting held to 198 total yards. The unit was 1-of-15 on third down conversations and he was sacked five times. San Francisco QB Jimmy Garropolo didn’t have to do much (14-of-20, 253 yards, 2 TDs) as the 49ers led 23-0 at halftime and they could’ve been up 31-0 if they didn’t settle for two short field goals (29, 27 yards).

The ‘under’ (48) cashed in that game and the books have dropped the number three points for the rematch. Both clubs have been solid defensively down the stretch, especially San Francisco. The unit flustered Rodgers in November at home and they were incredible last week against Minnesota, surrendering just 147 total yards to QB Kirk Cousins and a Vikings team that traveled well this season. Rodgers is certainly a step above Cousins but the key to beating or competing with San Francisco is running the football and hoping the offense makes mistakes. Green Bay went 10-1 when rushing for 100-plus yards this season but the one loss came to 49ers – so maybe that theory could be tossed.

Rodgers has gone 4-5 in his career versus San Francisco, 0-2 in the playoffs, and that includes a 1-3 mark in Northern California. Unfortunately for him, the defense allowed 36.3 PPG at San Francisco in the losses and just three points in the lone victory. Buying the Packers based on the narrative of Rodgers alone is certainly justified. He’s 10-7 all-time as a starter in the postseason and the Packers have never been held under 20 points with him under center. That production has helped the ‘over’ go 11-6 in his playoff starts and that includes a 6-1 run to the high side entering this game. In his playoff wins, the Packers have averaged 30.6 PPG. So if you expect Green Bay to be competitive on Sunday then you’re assuming points to follow suit.

Fearless Predictions - Over/Under Picks

This isn’t an easy game to handicap but I believe the point-spread is fair and San Francisco is definitely the better team but I can also see how bettors are afraid to go against Rodgers, similar to fading Tom Brady or Drew Brees – two guys already sent packing this postseason. This 49ers defense is the real deal and their numbers against non-divisional opponents has been even better this season, especially at home. The game will be closer than the first meeting and Green Bay will score more than 8 points but my lean would be to the Under (45). San Francisco wins a tight one – let’s call it 23-17.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-19-2020, 06:52 AM

311GREEN BAY -312 SAN FRANCISCO
GREEN BAY is 11-3 ATS (7.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread in the last 2 seasons.

313TENNESSEE -314 KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season in the current season.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-19-2020, 06:52 AM

NFL

Conference Championships

Andy Reid is 1-5 in conference championship games and 1-8 against the Titans. Tennessee (+6.5) ran ball for 225 yards, upset the Chiefs 35-32 in Nashville in Week 12, despite giving up 520 TY. Titans scored GW TD with 0:23 left. Tennessee is 9-3 SU with Tannehill at QB; they won their last five road games, scoring 31 ppg; Titans are 7-3 SU on road TY- they’re 4-2 ATS as a road underdog. Tennessee won its last four games with KC, winning last three by total of six points, with previous three wins all coming at Arrowhead. Over is 8-3 in Titans’ last 11 games. Chiefs won their last seven games (under 5-2), five by 10+ points; they’re 4-2-1 ATS this year as a home favorite. Since ’06, favorites are 5-4 ATS in conference title games without a #1 seed

Packers (+3) were held to 198 TY (91 PY) in a 37-8 loss to 49ers in Santa Clara in Week 12, just their 3rd loss in last 12 series games- they haven’t lost since. Packers won their last six games SU, giving up 15 or fewer points in four of six games- they’re 3-1 ATS as road underdogs TY. Four of their last five games went under the total. 49ers won last three games, scoring 29 ppg; SF is 4-4-1 ATS as a home favorite TY- over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games. Last six years, #1 seeds are 7-4 ATS in this round. 49ers are in playoffs for first time in seven years; LaFleur is in his first year as a HC. Garoppolo is 1-0 in playoff games. Rodgers is 10-7. Green Bay won three of its last five visits to Santa Clara.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-19-2020, 06:53 AM

NFL conference championships betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

Tennessee linebacker Jayon Brown (shoulder) is questionable for Sunday's AFC Championship Game at Kansas City. However, that didn't impact the line, which has been at Titans +7 since Tuesday.

It’s on to conference championship weekend in the NFL playoffs. Covers checks in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Injury Impact

TENNESSEE TITANS: The defense is a bit dinged, with a few players questionable at Kansas City on Sunday, including linebacker Jayon Brown (shoulder) and cornerback Adoree’ Jackson (foot). Wideout Adam Humphries (ankle), who has missed the past six games, is also questionable. But The SuperBook’s oddsmakers aren’t concerned about those injuries. “No move for any of the Titans guys,” Osterman said. Tennessee is a 7-point underdog in this 3:05 p.m. ET kick.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Star tight end Travis Kelce (knee) was limited in practice for the home tilt against Tennessee, but he was questionable in last week’s divisional win over Houston and had 10 receptions for 134 yards and three touchdowns. “Kelce would be worth a half-point if he didn’t play, but he’s expected to play.” The Chiefs are 7-point favorites.

Weather Watch

TENNESSEE AT KANSAS CITY: Snow and freezing rain hit Kansas City on Friday, but the weather is expected to be clear for the 12:05 p.m. ET kickoff Sunday. That said, it’ll be cold, on the order of 20 degrees with 10-15 mph winds making it feel chillier still. “It’s not expected to have much effect on the scoring. The total has actually gone up. We took some bets on Over 52, and we’re now at 53.” The total opened 50.5.
Pros vs. Joes

TENNESSEE AT KANSAS CITY: Friday morning, neither of the conference championship games had a Pros vs. Joes flair. By Friday night, that had changed. “We hadn’t seen too much sharp money come in, except for some early action on Tennessee, which is why that line came down,” Osterman said of a speedy drop last Sunday from Chiefs -9.5 to -7.5. “But we have started to see more public Chiefs money, especially on the moneyline and in teasers. If this trend continues, then I could see classifying it as a Pros vs. Joes game.”

Sunday 1-19-20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Sunday 1-19-20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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