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Tony Finn
SUPER SUNDAY LIV POINTSPREAD
Game: (101) San Francisco 49ers at (102) Kansas City Chiefs
Date/Time: Feb 2 2020 6:30 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Kansas City Chiefs -115
SUPER SUNDAY LIV TOP TOTAL
Game: (101) San Francisco 49ers at (102) Kansas City Chiefs
Date/Time: Feb 2 2020 6:30 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Over 54.0 (-108)
Note this first update of my Super Bowol package will next release a more indepthThe story of Patrick Mahomes is as interesting and intriguing as that of Jimmy G. Neither enter this game without some pimples. The subjective nature of which story is more, or most interesting, depends on which set of circumstances tickles your fancy.
Kansas City has arrived. And they are led by arguably the most gifted and talented quarterback since... "since" references what you choose it to be. Kansas City was a part of Super Bowl I and Super Bowl 4. For the most part the same personnel that dressed in Super Bowl I vs Green Bay dressed in Super Bowl four versus the Vikings.
The 49ers have played in, and won, all five of their Big Sunday affairs. five Super Sunday contests.
First let’s review Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs third-year quarterbacack is being called the best quarterback in the game today. The truth is the information I would use to argue this point is the same percentage gibberish I could argue he isn't. And who he is in the GOAT container is not relevant to Sunday's event.
Who he "will be" until further notice will, however, be a result of the final score.
We still don't know everything about Mahomes. Heck we don't even know allot. Not yet, not at this stage of his career. What we do know? He is the most accurate quarterback when throwing a football than anyone in the history of the game, ever.
The yards that Mahomes has completed 10,316 are not relevant to this game. His, 84-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio has never even been imagined for a 23 or 24 year old. Nor has a more efficient prototypical pro set pocket signal caller having rushing touchdowns in 34 regular season/post season starts assisting his teammates in competing in two consecutive Conference Championship Games. Oh, and throw in a Super Bowl as well.
Mahomes' collective postseason numbers include a record of 3-1 in the four games inside of an Andy Reid offense . One that has averaged 37 ppg. The son of a major league baseball pitcher - his genius with a football has recorded nine touchdowns without an interception and since retiring for a short hiatus to a knee injury the KC QB has completed 112-of-162 passes with a 13-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
What Mahomet’s doesn't have Jimmy Garoppolo has a pair of. This beingt the quarterback for a team that won two Super Bowls. The caveat to his Super Sunday rings is that he didn't play... he watched.
Jimmy is, according to my wife, better looking than he is a game breaking threat behind center. Think of the number of good quarterbacks, excellent game-managers, who didn't have the running game or the defense to even get those players to the postseason, yet along the big game. Accuracy isn't Garrapolo's ally. Jimmy G ranked eighth on the 2019-20 season list of game interceptions.
I would throw some love in the direction of the 49ers fan base and tell them that the 50th bowl game in the history of the Super Bowl won't be much different than all of the games. I say throw love at Jimmy G and coach Shanahan. As uncompromising as play-caller and head coach Kyle Shanahan an A+ for the 2019-20 campaign.
If you watch enough TV, the SportsCenter crew beat the Kansas City defense like a dead horse before each of the team’s rushing attack. Derrick Henry was supposed to bulldoze, run through and over the Chiefs. He and the Tennessee Titans didn't however.
The Chiefs have limited long completions against and just 3.8 yards per carry during their last six games. That would rank among the top-10 rush defenses if computed out for the entire season.
The running game has been a big part of the Niners postseason success, but for the most part they have played with a lead. And Raheem Mostert, Tevin
The Chiefs butt slaps and high-fives for what their defense has become. The KC defense held their last six regular-season foes to 11.6 points a game. Their pass rush is greatly upgraded with the return from injury of premier defensive lineman Christopher Jones and the late-season signing of veteran Terrell Suggs, who ranks eighth all-time on the NFL sack list with 139.
San Francisco’s success lives and breathes with the success of the defense. Again holding Minny to just seven first downs. n first downs while keeping Aaron Rodgers way in check. Make no mistake. The best tight-end in the league and in this game is Kelce. If George Kittle isn’t the best tight end in the NFL or voted as such, then the people that have not wastch then I don't know who could or would Tyreek Hill is a premier big-play threat. Mecole Hardman is another speed burner who needs to be watched.
SUPER BOWL LIV REPORT (update on props -- all 15 propositions have been given a confidence rating between 1-10 -- WITH 10 (ten) being the strongest in both confidence and value for the group)
1. WILL THERE BE A 4TH QUARTER LEAD CHANGE
10091 Yes (+240) -- confidence rating of 7
Using historical data or past performance to measure the probability of a single occurrence today, or Sunday, are untrustworthy predictive. What do we know? The oddsmakers expect this game to be close. In addition 21% of all NFL final scores are within three-points of the closing line and 46% within a touchdown. The Mahomes led Chiefs executed come-from-behind wins in two-straight playoff games. QB Jimmy Garoppolo led the 49ers to a league-high four fourth-quarter comebacks. Combine what we know and chances are better than not we have more than one opportunity to witness a fourth-quarter lead change.
2. ALTERNATE POINTSPREADS
206 CHIEFS - 14½ +420 ---- confidence rating of 5
The last game of 2019-20 is a long shot to emulate or be executed as were most games in the regular season. Going back to Week 13 when Mahomes was close to 100 percent following the midseason knee injury the Chiefs won four of their last seven games by 15 points or more. And in four of those seven games Mahomes and the Chiefs were trailing after the first quarter and in four of KC's last seven games they have trailed at the end of the first quarter. This 49ers team is not build to play from behind. And the earlier that KC can pressure Jimmy G and Shanahan to be less run-first the easier it for the Niners offense to play themselves into mistakes. When desperate times call for desperate measures the Chiefs have been that team that has taken advantage and converted desperately measured mistakes into large margins of victory.
3. FIRST RUSHING ATTEMPT BY RAHEEM MOSTERT (SF)
66032 UNDER 3.5 YARDS +110 ---- confidence rating of 5
The 200-plus yard game that Mostert produced versus Green Bay in the conference finals was a direct result of a defensive front that had hemorrhaged rushing yards most of the season. It was also a creation of late game defenders tackling, or attempting to, tackle the ball rather than the running back with the hope of causing a fumble.
4. FIRST RECEPTION BY: DeMarcus ROBINSON* (KC)
(IF NO RECEPTION - "UNDER" IS WINNER)
66072 UNDER 10½ UNDER - 110 ---- confidence rating of 5
Robinson was only relevant to Mahomes and the offense in games where Hill was inactive. If Robinson catches a pass in this contest it is most likely to be from the slot in a possession situation in which he would have to produce YAK to be created with more than 10 yards.
5. LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME BY: EITHER TEAM
10051 OVER 14½ OVER - 130 ---- confidence rating of 5
This is a correlated prop to the play on KC for game and in connection with pointspread prop of -14.5. The result of winning one has a high probability of producing three winning props.
6. TOTAL GROSS PASSING YARDS BY: Jimmy GAROPPOLO* (SF)
10101 OVER 239½ - 110 --- ---- confidence rating of 7
Very few scenarios in this game, and with any NFL game total that rests in the mid-50's have had one of the two quarterbacks throw for less than 280 yards yet alone 240.
7. WILL THERE BE A 2 POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT?
10085 YES +120 ---- confidence rating of 5
The last game of the 2019-20 season and the history of this game, as well as the oddsmakers over-under place the probability of a two point attempt closer to -140 than +120.
8. TOTAL QB SACKS BY: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS DEFENSE 10277 OVER 2½ OV +130 ---- confidence rating of 6
The 49ers pressured the quarterback this season more than any team in the league, on 29 percent of defensive snaps/passing plays. They registered 48 regular season sacks (3 per game) and HC Reid and his OC called the fifth most passing plays in all of football this season.
9. TOTAL PASS ATTEMPTS BY: Patrick MAHOMES* (KC)
IF NO PASS ATTEMPTS - "UNDER" IS THE WINNER
10299 OVER 37½ OV - 110 ---- confidence rating of 5
If this game plays out as a regular season event Mahomes would fall right above the props 38 pass attempts. Regardless of quarterbacks playing with the lead or behind, in modern day NFL offensive schemes, Super Bowls have more pass attempts than the average Sunday regular season game.
10. LONGEST RECEPTION BY: Damien WILLIAMS* (KC)
IF NO RECEPTION - "UNDER" IS THE WINNER
10343 OVER 14½ OV - 110 ---- confidence rating of 8
If Williams doesn't have 6 or more receptions and 10 targets in this game it means that San Fran didn't blitz or show blitz early on. And if I were a betting man (cough) I would bet that this situation is in fact not the way this game plays out, especially early on. Williams and Mahomes, according to my Intel, spend extended and extra time coordinating screen pass schemes the last two weeks leading up to Sunday's game.
11. TOTAL RUSHING YARDS BY: Damien WILLIAMS* (KC)
IF NO RUSHING ATTEMPT - "UNDER" IS THE WINNER
10331 OVER 52½ OV - 110 ---- confidence rating of 6
There is substantial evidence from game results of Shanahan and his defensive coordinator that as much as the media mouths want to convince us that the Niners will gamble defensively it is much more likely that the Niners D-backers play off the KC receivers and fall into the category of taking advantage of the numbers, passing attempts and such, rather than gamble on creating a turnover in the Kansas City backfield. In a nutshell forcing Mahomes and company into sustained drives as opposed to losing with defensive gambles allowing quick hitting scoring plays.
12. TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS BY: Damien WILLIAMS* (KC)
IF NO RECEPTION - "UNDER" IS THE WINNER
10341 OVER 29½ OV - 110 ---- confidence rating of 6
Initially I wanted to rate this closer to 8 than 6. But after doing the math and the number of props vs. percentage of bankroll it was the first to take a rate cut. Williams is carrying the weight of Super Bowl LIV propositions investments for a reason. I expect, through my sources and the historic patterns of Andy Reid's play calling for Williams to have a big game.
13. TOTAL RECEPTIONS BY: DeMarcus ROBINSON* (KC)
IF NO RECEPTION - "UNDER" IS THE WINNER
10400 UNDER 1½ UN EVEN
14. WHO WILL HAVE MORE? UTAH/UCLA - 2/2/20 - CLOSES AT 12:00 PM PST ON 2/2/20
No--------- 10621 UTAH+UCLA - 8½ - 110 1ST HALF POINTS
Yes to this prop ------- 10622 Deebo SAMUEL* (SF) - 110 RECEIVING YARDS ---- confidence rating of 5
In conference play, which is greatly different and typically less-than the results of non-conference action the Bruins and Utes have averaged 30 first half points per game. The unexpected physicality of rookie Deebo Samuel began to become evident as the season wore on. And he became a trusted pair of hands for Jimmy G. Samuel's production in the postseason (5 receptions on 9 targets) was a result of game situation. A pair of contests in which San Fran was playing with a lead and were run-first. I expect Shanahan and Jimmy G to have the mentality that there is no fourth and short beyond their own 40 yard line not worthy of punting and Shanahan to be much more willing to throw the ball then in their Divisional and Conference victories.
15. PLAYER TO BE NAMED MVP
12016 Damien WILLIAMS* (KC) 14/1 ---- confidence rating of 8
Williams was banged up throughout training camp. In truth he wasn't close to 100 percent until essentially a four-game absence that saw him return in Week 16 versus the Bears. At Soldier Field against a good Bears defense, and front seven, Williams ran for 65 yards on 16 carries and caught three passes for 27 yards and a touchdown.
Williams followed that with a Week 17 start versus the Chargers and gained 124 yards on the ground and 30 through the air. A win over Los Angeles that saw him score two TD's. The two postseason contests came after a bye week that allowed Williams to gain additional health with extended recovery. In those two victories Williams scored three touchdowns.
It is also worth noting that in the four games outlined above he gained the confidence of the coaching staff and when asked HC Reid told the local media that Williams was the lead back and was doing the little and big things that was expected of him when training camp began in August. Also it came in four games in which the Chiefs either held a substantial lead in the final quarter or KC was down by double digits and Mahomes and Reid were executing play action routes that didn't break for 3 or more seconds, deep routes per se, and Williams was either a decoy or the Chiefs were in an empty set offensively.
If Kansas City earns a victory on Sunday and Williams combines for 100 plus yards by ground and by air and scores two touchdowns, especially if they are of the rushing variety, he is as likely the SB LIV MVP as Mahomes is with two or three passing TD's. And at 14-1 vs. even-money, respectfully, I do not have to outline were the value lies.
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SB LIV GAME SUMMARY FORECAST
National Football League Super Bowl events are meticulously planned, prepped, overwhelmingly publicized and for no better term pimped to anyone and everyone that is willing to buy or assist in the viewership by doing nothing more than watching. As much the league wants us to remember each and every Super Sunday, preferably with Total Recall, this isn't the case. If you ask a gaggle of fans from a specific franchise that was involved in a specific SB event chances are they will remember a large portion of the contest. But even said group will have distorted plays, facts and situations as they saw it. Not how it necessarily transpired.
The story lines in this contest are somewhat fabricated to make a more intriguing storyline. San Francisco’s defense and a front four that doesn't need help via the blitz to get to the quarterback. A Kansas City offense that is designed by one of the best play callers in the history of the game, Andy Reid, that is engineered by the player many are calling the next best thing since sliced bread, Patrick Mahomes.
It would take far too long to paint a picture of each quarterback, each team and how they both bled , sweat and mourned to the football higher-power with the aim of being NFL champions. Rather, a brief breakdown on how each found their way to Miami.
The Chiefs stumbled out of the blocks in both of their postseason contests. In the Divisional win vs. the Houston Texans the Chiefs fell behind 24-0 before eventually taking superior talent and positioning it in the time and space that would allow the Kansas City coaching staff and players to grind out a win. And that is almost exactly what they did to earn a Divisional win. The Chiefs were down 17-0 to the Tennessee Titans before big play after big play earned the Conference Championship.
The 49ers playoff route came in near perfect fashion. Jimmy G was set up for success almost instantly kickoff transpired. Vikings running back Dalvin Cook wasn't the same running back as we saw in the regular season. He played injured in the NFL Divisional round and the 49ers held the talented tailback to just 21 yards rushing. Conversely the Niners took advantage of a Green Bay defense in the conference title event that hemorrhaged rushing yards most of the year. Mostert gained 220 yards rushing and scored four touchdowns in the San Fran win.
With the two come-from-behind wins for the Chiefs the bookmakers understood their responsibility to position one of the highest totals in Super Bowl history. And the public, across the first 10 days of betting leading up to Sunday's game have done their part and pushed the over-under to as high as 55 points.
As easy as it is to suggest that the Niners had the easier route to Miami it is hard to have an argument that such a perception isn't fact. Kirk Cousins is a game manager. When he was signed by the Vikings they didn't have an illusions of anything more. And the Packers Rodgers is in the golden years of his career and didn't have the skill set weapons that would allow him to do much more than he did.
Making claim that Kansas City attempted to piss away the Super Bowl opportunity by finding fortune in their two comeback wins is not difficult to counter.
Kansas City has the most talent at quarterback in all of the NFL. Andy Reid's offense doesn't require that the tight end do anything more than catch the ball when thrown to and having the talent to be a decoy when he is not throw to. Tyreek Hill is a premier big-play receivers. And while many will argue Hill processes elite speed and doesn't have elite skills to be anything more than a "run fast and hope he catches the ball wide out" are wrong.
This Kansas City offense is the fastest in all of football. Hill in combination with Mecole Hardman and even veteran Sammy
Watkins will concern most all defensive coordinators. But Reid and his staff develop their receivers. Hill, has made incredible strides in his route running and reliable hands.
Damien Williams is more than just a good backup. His skill set is near perfect for Reid's scheme. Williams scored three touchdowns in the Divisional Round win over the Houston Texans, the first on a 17-yard pass from Patrick Mahomes and the others on short runs. He also played 62 of the 64 offensive snaps. LeSean McCoy and Darwin Thompson are non factors at this point unless Williams suffers an in-game injury.
Williams is for all intent and purpose a hidden weapon, stealth if you will, and has received little headlines as Super Sunday has snuck up on us. Williams was hurt coming out of training camp and it took him the majority of the season to work his way back into the role he was expected to handle from Week 1 and forward.
In defense of the major media mouths Williams being held in middling regard makes sense. Williams wound up leading the Chiefs in the regular season in rushing but it is difficult to put All-Pro verbiage around a player with just 498 yards and seven total touchdowns on the season.
Kansas City’s offensive line is underrated ranking fourth in the metric defensive-adjusted value over average. It is Andy Reid that is the Hall of Fame coach in this game, or soon to be. And without putting numbers around what the KC defense did in the second half of the season and comparing that to the Niners stop unit let's give the edge defensively to the Niners and call it good.
This game is more than the talent and assets that the San Fran 49ers bring to Sunday's game... it is what they themselves have to face and conquer versus Mahomes and company.
Take a leap of faith and assume my measurements are correct. Starting with the quarterbacks the 49ers faced this season and which can be compared to Mahomes. I believe it is fair to use Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson as the examples. The Saints scored 46 points against the 49ers. The Falcons produced 29 points and an outright victory. And a young receiving corps of the Seahawks working with Russell Wilson averaged 24 points per game in this year's home and home series.
I believe it also fair to state that Garoppolo is a game manager. Giving him credit for being a two time Super Bowl quarterback is an extreme stretch. He has never taken a snap in a SB Sunday event. He isn't as mobile as Mahomes, Jimmy doesn't have the arm strength or the touch. In addition Garoppolo doesn't have the weapons that Mahomes does. Feel free to leave the Kansas City backup receivers inactive for Sunday's affair. The combination of Williams out of the backfield, Kelce under the backers and Hill and Watkins roaming the secondary is, in truth, unfair.
This Kansas City team is where they are because of the improvement the defense made and the continued growth of Mahomes and Hill. The defensive coordinator change made by Reid is deserving of its due, as well.
Before putting my expectations and forecast to bed please understand that the total in this game is a no-play. Meaning that, all things being equal, the right side of the oddsmakers over/under is south of 51, not north of 55. I spent a period of three days tweaking numbers and adjusting specific variables to find justification to support the under. However, I could not do so. And attempting to pull, push and stretch numbers to fit my preconceptions is something I simply don't do. The truth is going north of 55 isn't as difficult to argue as it attempting to justify south of 51. But next time you have nothing important to tackle take a look at the Kansas City totals in the regular season and see how many of those closed in the range of 55.
If you happened to take the time to look you now know that a game that is tailored around the notion that "defense wins championships" that the oddsmakers have shaded the total for this Sunday contest.
That said, and my belief that this total under regular circumstances would be a definite no-go, it is the Super Bowl and I have been asked to take a position to the north or to the south. With the request I recommend a correlated play to who I believe is the better team. And without taking a giant step, still head and shoulders more talented offensively, are the Chiefs. The correlation of side and total in this Super Bowl; if you believe as I do that Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are the winners in this Super Sunday affair which in turn creates a high probability that the Chiefs cover the most logical final game stats have the final score north of 55. And visa versa; if the 49ers are to earn the victory it is because they found away to turn KC over at minimum a trio of times and the Niners win because KC couldn't locate the end zone.
In my reality and from what my eye-test tells me each and every time I watch Garoppolo live or on film, his is positioned behind this line of scrimmage and in front of a San Fran defense to not lose. The underlying peripherals to what Shanahan and Jimmy G execute on Sundays is a non-aggressive balanced attack that gives the defense a chance to win the game as much as that of the offense.Comment
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Stephen Oh
DATA SCIENTIST
10:47 AM
VANCOUVER +1.5
VANCOUVER @ CAROLINA | 2/02 | 2:00 PM EST
My model says that the Canucks cover the spread 75 percent of the time, so you're getting excellent value playing them at this spread. Vancouver has won five straight contests and seven of its last eight, with six of those victories coming by two or more goals. The Canucks also have played well on the road of late, winning four of their last five. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes have dropped four of their last six contests. Take Vancouver +1.5 goals at -171.
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TD Power Call (10-1 playoffs)
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From Northcoast group of handicappers:
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Accu Picks
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ncaab asssassin
super bowl :: no play
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