Sunday 2-2-20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Advantage - Kansas City Chiefs
Kevin Rogers

The Chiefs hosted the AFC championship game in 2018, but lost a shootout in overtime to the eventual champion Patriots. However, Kansas City rebounded this season with another trip to the conference title game and knocked off Tennessee for its first Super Bowl appearance since 1969.

In spite of last season’s Most Valuable Player Patrick Mahomes missing nearly three games due to a dislocated kneecap, the Chiefs still posted 451 points. Kansas City made the Super Bowl even though it scored 114 points less than last season and finished with the exact same 14-2 record in the regular season.

Mahomes threw almost half the touchdown passes from 2018 (50) to this season (26), but also cut down on his interceptions from 12 to 5. The former Texas Tech standout still managed 4,031 yards passing in 13 ½ games, which was only an average of eight yards passing fewer per game than 2018. The Chiefs won seven of eight games away from Arrowhead Stadium with the only loss coming to the Titans in Week 10 on a last-minute touchdown, which was coincidentally the best passing game by Mahomes this season (446 yards).

The Chiefs did an excellent job of not giving away the ball this season by committing only 15 turnovers, which was ranked tied for third-fewest in the league. As mentioned earlier, the five interceptions thrown by Mahomes (zero by Matt Moore in the two games he started) were the second-fewest in the NFL behind Green Bay. Kansas City owned a +8 turnover ratio on the season, compared to San Francisco’s +4 turnover margin as the 49ers threw 13 interceptions, which is the second-most among playoff teams.

Mahomes has never thrown an interception in four career playoff games, compared to 11 touchdown passes. His best passing performance came in the divisional round against the Texans in which he threw for 321 yards and five touchdowns, marking the most touchdowns he posted this season.

VegasInsider.com NFL expert Joe Nelson provides his thoughts on why the Chiefs are worth backing, “Kansas City was sixth in the NFL in opposing quarterback passer rating, ahead of San Francisco. The Chiefs were also eighth in the NFL in red zone touchdown success allowed, while San Francisco was 25th. The Chiefs allowed 4.8 yards per rush this season, but San Francisco wasn’t that much better surrendering 4.4 yards per attempt. While the bulk of the compiling numbers favor San Francisco, there are key numbers that paint these defenses much closer together than the general team statistics over the course of the season. The defensive numbers for San Francisco also got worse in the second half of the season while they improved dramatically for the Chiefs down the stretch.”

The two rallies pulled off by Kansas City just proves its relentless scoring prowess according to Nelson, “The Chiefs have come back from 24-0 and 17-7 in two playoff wins the past two games as this team can handle adversity and won’t panic if there is a big turnover or an early setback. It isn’t clear the 49ers can do that going just 5-3 in single-score games this season. The 49ers lucked into the #1 seed in the NFC with Seattle falling an inch short of the goal line in Week 17. In the NFC Championship, they faced a Packers team that could make a case for being one of the weakest #2 seeds in NFL history as well. Both quality road wins for the 49ers came narrowly with great fortune while the Chiefs dominated its final two road games of the season against quality defenses and will be easier to trust in a neutral site far from home.”

The second half defense has been especially strong for Kansas City down the stretch by allowing double-digit points after halftime only once in the past eight contests. The Chiefs yielded seven points in the second half of each of their playoff wins against the Titans and Texans, while the most points allowed after halftime in this stretch was 14 in the Week 17 home win over the Chargers.

The Chiefs did a better job of limiting top statistical quarterbacks than the 49ers this season. Kansas City has played five games against quarterbacks that finished in the top 10 in passing (Philip Rivers twice, Derek Carr twice, and Tom Brady), while San Francisco played six contests against four such quarterbacks (Jared Goff twice, Russell Wilson twice, Jameis Winston, and Matt Ryan). In spite of the 49ers playing one extra game, they racked up only five interceptions, with three coming in the opener at Tampa Bay. The Chiefs compiled 11 interceptions in those five games, compared to six touchdown passes.

Out of starting quarterbacks that played at least 14 games, Mahomes was sacked the least by getting taken down only 17 times, compared to Jimmy Garoppolo getting sacked 36 times in 16 starts.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Advantage - San Francisco 49ers
Kevin Rogers

The 49ers were not a team strongly considered to be the top seed in the NFC playoffs, much less capture its first conference title since 2012. But San Francisco put together a terrific campaign that started with an 8-0 record and a 13-3 finish that included late-season victories over the Saints, Rams, and Seahawks to secure the number one seed and home-field advantage.

Since Jimmy Garoppolo has taken over as starting quarterback of the 49ers late in the 2017 season, San Francisco owns a spectacular 21-5 record. Garoppolo won the final starts of 2017 after getting traded from New England, then went 1-1 to begin 2018 before tearing his ACL in a Week 3 defeat at San Francisco. The season went sideways for the Niners, who finished 4-12, but after Garoppolo rehabbed from the knee injury, San Francisco lost a total of three games in 2019, including two by three points each.

The defense led the way for San Francisco to begin the season, which included limiting six of their first seven opponents to 17 points or less. The 49ers posted 31 points or more four times during this early stretch, including dropping 51 points on Carolina in a Week 8 home blowout. Garoppolo threw for over 300 yards only three times this season, but all three came in victories, including in the wild 48-46 triumph at New Orleans in Week 14.

Although the defensive numbers weren’t as strong down the stretch for San Francisco (31.7 points per game allowed in the last four regular season games), the 49ers shut down the Vikings and Packers in two resounding home playoff victories. San Francisco limited those two NFC North squads to a total of 30 points, while winning each time by 17 points. The Niners allowed a total of 83 yards on the ground in the two victories, after giving up an average of 112.8 yards per game rushing (which was still 16 yards better than the Chiefs).

Since 2013, three NFC teams listed as underdogs in the Super Bowl that won both playoff games at home are 2-1. The Seahawks dominated the Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII, 43-8 and the Eagles outlasted the Patriots, 41-33 in Super Bowl LII. The only loser in this situation was the Falcons in Super Bowl LI, who famously squandered a 28-3 lead over the Patriots in a 34-28 overtime setback as three-point ‘dogs.

NFL handicapper Joe Nelson elaborates on the dominance of the San Francisco defense through the playoffs, “Aaron Rodgers had a 22.3 QBR in the NFC Championship despite being one of the all-time greats in that metric. Kirk Cousins was one of the top-rated quarterbacks in the NFL and he didn’t fare much better vs. the 49ers with the Vikings managing seven first downs. The Chiefs have needed Patrick Mahomes to be brilliant in two playoff wins after digging early holes, he isn’t likely to have great numbers against a 49ers’ defense that held opposing quarterbacks to the seventh-worst rating in the league in the regular season.”

For as much as the Chiefs are thought of as an offensive juggernaut, the 49ers’ offense actually outperformed Kansas City this season, “Kansas City wowed with 86 points in two impressive comeback wins in the playoffs, but even with that scoring the Chiefs have been outscored by the 49ers 543-537 through 18 games. The only major team statistic that the Chiefs beat the 49ers is turnover differential at +8 compared to just +7 counting the playoff games for an inconsequential difference,” Nelson notes.

The 49ers led the NFL in passing yards allowed per game in the NFL at 169.2, while yielding 300 or more yards to a quarterback three times this season. In San Francisco’s three losses, the Niners never gave up more than 240 yards passing as they led or were tied with less than two minutes to go in each defeat.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

by: Josh Inglis


FIVE YARDS FOR A WINNER

Looking to diversify your player prop portfolio for Sunday’s game? Well, Jimmy Garoppolo’s rushing total sits at an unheard of 4.5 yards. That’s basically one small jump for a winner. There is obviously a reason why his total is so low as the San Francisco quarterback is averaging just 3.6 yards rushing a game thanks to a 1.4 yards per carry.

The G-man has gone over 4.5 rushing yards in just six of his 18 games this year but is 2-1 O/U in the 49ers three losses. A trend that sits in the QB’s favor is that KC has allowed opposing quarterbacks to top 4.5 yards in six of its last seven games including a 20-yard rushing performance from Tom Brady in Week 14.

If Brady can do it, so can Garoppolo. This one is more fun than anything else, but we are still adding Garoppolo’s Over 4.5 rushing yards to our championship plays.


BETTING ON THE LAST PLAY

The Super Bowl brings us a plethora of game props that aren’t usually available during the regular season. When Over/Under shortest touchdown of 1.5 yards is a standard game prop for you, then you need some weird action to tickle your fancy.

One such play caught our attention: last play of game QB rush (yes -167; no +136). If you’re taking the “no” you will be hoping for a comeback as the victory formation is your greatest enemy and if you’re backing the yes, a quarterback kneel is considered a rushing attempt.

Looking back on each teams’ last five wins, three losses and the last play of the previous seven Super Bowls gives us these results:

San Francisco last five wins — 3-2 Y/N
San Francisco last three losses — 0-3 Y/N

Kansas City last five wins — 5-0 Y/N
Kansas City last three losses — 1-2 Y/N

Last 10 Super Bowls — 4-6 Y/N

This is another bet that you can add to the “fun list” of props as cheering for the plus-money “No” keeps you hoping for the trailing offense to keep possession. We see this closer to a 50/50 bet than the odds suggest and are happy to take the No for +136.


WAITING FOR THE FIRST

We don’t know much about chronological order as we are segueing from the last play of the game to the contest’s first TD. If you’re in the boat that thinks the 49ers won’t have any difficulty rushing the ball against the Chiefs’ No. 29 DVOA rush defense, there are many special bets out there.

The one that took our attention was regarding how the first TD will be scored. Passing TD - First TD of the Game is a big favorite as it sits at -156 while Any Other TD - First TD of the Game is a tempting +120.

The 49ers had the league’s third-best rushing touchdown percentage at just under 50 percent and that number jumps to 85 percent over their last five games. The Chiefs could also help us out with a winner as they have scored rushing TDs at a 42-percent rate of their total offensive TDs, but we like the Niners to get the first crack at an easier touchdown with their defense making life more difficult than the K.C. offense is used to.

We like the Any Other TD - First TD of the Game at +120


KITTLE VS. KELCE

Super Bowl 54 features arguably the two best tight ends in the NFL. Travis Kelce and George Kittle finished first and third respectively in receiving yards this year as Kelce averaged nearly ten yards more than the 49ers TE.

With San Francisco committing to the run, Kittle has stayed in and helped with the blocking as he has been targeted six times in the playoffs and just once in the Conference round. Kelce, on the other hand, put up 134 yards on 10 grabs and a trio of touchdowns in the Divisional game and sputtered a bit versus Tennessee gaining just 30 yards on three grabs.

With the K.C. offense’s motor being driven by the passing game, we will take Kelce to get the most receiving yards between him and Kittle. Kelce pays -120 to outperform the San Fran TE.

[rocky57]

Big Ray Sports (Spooky Express) - CBB Comp Play - Utah/UCLA Under 138