Service Plays Thursday 2/20/20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-19-2020, 10:01 PM

Rick Gehman

8:00 AM ET

WGC Mexico

This TOUR heads to Mexico City for the first World Golf Championship event of the year. This field is limited to 72 golfers based on their Official World Golf Rankings and a few other qualifying criteria. We will see another stacked field, but a few golfers have opted to skip this tournament, including Tiger Woods, Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, Henrik Stenson, Brooks Koepka, Jason Day and Patrick Cantlay. This will be the fourth year at Club de Golf Chapultepec for this Championship.

#1 - Rory McIroy

Rory McIlroy is unrelenting. He's a staple on the first page of the leaderboard and in the winner's circle. One bad hole at Riviera dropped him to T5 last week and now he heads to Mexico City where he's finished 2nd and T7 in his last two starts.

#2 - Dustin Johnson

Still without his best stuff, Dustin Johnson almost stole the Genesis Invitational, eventually finishing T10. No golfer in the world can match DJ's resume at Club de Golf Chapultepec. In the three years since moving to this course, Johnson has won it twice and finished T7 in his other start.

#3 - Jon Rahm

His T17 at the Genesis was his second-worst finish since the U.S. Open. It's been a mixed bag of results at Chapultepec for Rahm, but his "bomb and gauge" strategy should play well here.

#4 - Justin Thomas

Everything went wrong for Thomas last week at Riviera, as he went 74-71 en route to missing the cut. He'll look to shake that off at a course with plenty of good vibes for him. He's finished 9th, 2nd and 5th in his three starts at Chapultepec.

#5 - Adam Scott

Adam Scott has a great history at this tournament, including a win, but that's a bit deceiving. The bulk of his success came in 2016 and earlier when this event was played at Doral Golf Resort. Even still, Scott raised the trophy at the Australian PGA Championship and last week at the Genesis Invitational in back-to-back starts.

#6 - Hideki Matsuyama

Matsuyama showed us the magic of making the cut last week. He made the weekend on the number and followed that up with rounds of 64 and 69. That ability to go low plays even better in a no-cut event when each golfer is guaranteed four rounds.

#7 - Xander Schauffele

It was a battle on the greens all week for Schauffele, who lost 1.27 strokes putting at Riviera. The rest of his game was on point, and he has proven himself to be great in no-cut events. Three of his four PGA wins have come in events without a cut sweat.

#8 - Paul Casey

He has plenty of good vibes in Mexico, where Casey finished T3 last season.

#9 - Tommy Fleetwood

One of the best ball-strikers on the planet has dominated the European Tour this winter, with a win, two seconds and a T11 in his last four starts.

#10 - Webb Simpson

His last start was a victory at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, but Chapultepec has stumped Webb. He's finished T39 and T37 in his only two starts at this course.

#11 - Tony Finau

Finau's finish at Riviera was disappointing by his standards (T51). And he's had two average finishes in Mexico the last two years: T25, T27

#12 - Patrick Reed

His ability to go low certainly helps in a no-cut event. He won this WGC in 2014 but not at Chapultepec. Only has one Top-20 since.

#13 - Bryson DeChambeau

"New Bryson" is learning his physique quickly, gaining 3+ strokes in both the off-the-tee and approach categories last week. One start at Chapultepec: a T56 last year.

#14 - Marc Leishman

His win at the Farmers Insurance Open followed by a T43 last week lends well to firm and fast tracks. Unfortunately for Leishman, that doesn't translate to Chapultepec.

#15 - Gary Woodland

After a hot start to the season, Woodland missed the cut at Torrey Pines and finished T40 in Phoenix. This event has stifled Woodland over the years, without a single Top-15 in six trips.

#16 - Sungjae Im

Missed the cut last week for the first time in 16 starts. Remains top 20 on the TOUR in Strokes Gained Total and won't have to sweat a cut this week.

#17 - Bubba Watson

Had four Top-3 finishes in a five-year stretch at this event. Unfortunately, all of them were at Doral and he has not had nearly as much success here at Chapultepec.

#18 - Sergio Garcia

One of the best ball-strikers around and no worse than T12 in the last three years at this event.

#19 - Louis Oosthuizen

Has planted himself at the top of the leaderboard lately. Despite zero wins, he has five finishes inside the Top 6 in his last seven starts.

#20 - Shane Lowry

Lowry finished second in Hong Kong a few weeks back but a T62 in his only start at Chapultepec is not very inspiring.

#21 - Bernd Wiesberger

The 22nd-ranked player in the world has missed the cut in his last two starts and hasn't cracked the Top 30 in his top Chapultepec starts.

#22 - Matthew Fitzpatrick

Matthew Fitzpatrick has solid Top-10 upside in seemingly any tournament worldwide.

#23 - Brandt Snedeker

It's been an inconsistent year for Snedeker, notching a T12 at the Sony Open and a T3 at Torrey Pines. He followed that up with two straight missed cuts.

#24 - Byeong Hun An

There's no concern about Byeong Hun An's ball-striking but his putting (or lack thereof) creates volatile results. He's finished inside the Top 15 or outside the Top 45 in all 10 starts this season.

#25 - Kurt Kitayama

Primarily a European Tour player, he finished T18 at Pebble Beach and has WGC experience.

#26 - Abraham Ancer

Ancer posted a second-place finish at The American Express, followed by a T6 in Saudi Arabia and a T43 in Los Angeles last week.

#27 - Tyrell Hatton

Won the Turkish Airlines Open two starts ago and has finished 10th, T3, T19 in his only three trips to Chapultepec.

#28 - Kevin Na

One of the most volatile golfers on TOUR. Just as likely to win as he is to flame out.

#29 - Kevin Kisner

Kevin Kisner isn't long off the tee, but he's deadly accurate. The problem is that accuracy won't be nearly as important as distance this week.

#30 - Lucas Herbert

I'm reserving the 30th spot for a real deep flier in Lucas Herbert. It's 2020 and it's been the year of the Aussie with Cameron Smith, Marc Leishman, Adam Scott and Herbert all winning around the world this year. Herbert won the Omega Dubai Desert Classic and followed it up with two solid European Tour outings.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-19-2020, 10:01 PM

Mike McClure

8:00 AM ET

WGC Mexico

The projected top 10, according to the model:

1 Rory McIlroy 11-2
2 Dustin Johnson 15-2
3 Jon Rahm 9-1
4 Webb Simpson 14-1
5 Hideki Matsuyama 16-1
6 Justin Thomas 9-1
7 Tommy Fleetwood 20-1
8 Xander Schauffele 18-1
9 Adam Scott 16-1
10 Sergio Garcia 50-1

The rest of the field, according to the model:

11 Matt Kuchar
12 Paul Casey
13 Collin Morikawa
14 Louis Oosthuizen
15 Bryson Dechambeau
16 Matthew Fitzpatrick
17 Abraham Ancer
18 Gary Woodland
19 Shane Lowry
20 Bubba Watson
21 Patrick Reed
22 Marc Leishman
23 Cameron Smith
24 Sung-Jae Im
25 Rafa Cabrera Bello
26 Kevin Na
27 Lee Westwood
28 Danny Willett
29 Kevin Kisner
30 Jordan Spieth
31 Chez Reavie
32 Tyrrell Hatton
33 Victor Perez
34 Billy Horschel
35 Robert MacIntyre
36 Kurt Kitayama
37 Charles Howell
38 Branden Grace
39 Matt Wallace
40 Brandt Snedeker
41 Graeme McDowell
42 Christiaan Bezuidenhout
43 Bernd Wiesberger
44 Francesco Molinari
45 Byeong-Hun An
46 Scottie Scheffler
47 Erik Van Rooyen
48 Lanto Griffin
49 Sung Kang
50 Brendon Todd
51 Shaun Norris
52 Corey Conners
53 Jazz Janewattananond
54 Mike Lorenzo-Vera
55 Carlos Ortiz
56 Jason Kokrak
57 Shugo Imahira
58 Lucas Herbert
59 Lucas Glover
60 Matthias Schwab
61 Ryo Ishikawa
62 Justin Harding
63 Marcus Kinhult
64 Benjamin Hebert
65 Sebastian Munoz
66 Jorge Campillo
67 Ryan Fox
68 Pablo Larrazabal
69 Zander Lombard
70 Scott Hend
71 Zach Murray
72 Tae-Hee Lee

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-19-2020, 10:02 PM

Sal Johnson

8:00 AM ET

WGC Mexico

One of these four should win

1. Rory McIlroy

√ Since his win at the Tour Championship, he has played in eight events and been in contention in seven of them on the final day. Won WGC-HSBC and was T-5 at Genesis and T-3 at Farmers.
√ For the last year, has been the best player in the first three rounds and he could easily have won five more events if he had been better in the final round. His 73 on Sunday at the Genesis is an example of this.
√ First in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, T-29 in Greens in Regulation, second in Par Breakers, all great stats for Club de Golf Chapultepec.

2. Dustin Johnson

√ He seems to own Club de Golf Chapultepec. In 12 rounds, has been in the 60s 11 times and at 47 under has been the best of anyone.
√ Game is not perfect yet, but after T-10 at the Genesis has shown his game is close
√ Stats for 2020 aren't very good, but it's a low sampling of three events. He is making progress since being injured, and you have to believe this is the week for it to come together.

3. Justin Thomas

√ Has been supreme at Club de Golf Chapultepec with a T-5, second and ninth last year. In 12 rounds, has been over par twice and is 36 under.
√ He would seem an automatic choice this week, with three wins in his last 10 starts. But he missed the cut at Genesis and the Sony Open.
√ Is sixth in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, T-19 in Greens in Regulation, T-3 in Par Breakers, all great stats for Club de Golf Chapultepec.

4. Adam Scott

√ Played once in 2017, finishing T-45, but after rounds of 73-76, finished 68-68 on the weekend, so he knows how to go under par at Club de Golf Chapultepec.
√ In his only start of the year, at Riviera last week, he got the victory as he finished third in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green and first in Greens in Regulation.
√ His last win in this event, in 2016 at Doral, came a week after he won the Honda Classic. You have to like his chances for back-to-back wins.

Players you have to consider

5. Bryson DeChambeau

√ Was T-56 in his only start last year, and shot 69 in final round.
√ His game has gotten better recently. Was T-5 at Genesis, shooting 69-69 over the weekend.
√ Is 17th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, 41st in Greens in Regulation and third in Putts Inside 10 feet for 2020.

6. Sergio Garcia

√ Has played well at Club de Golf Chapultepec finishing T-12, T-7 and T-6. In 12 rounds, has not been over par and is 29 under.
√ Has been pretty solid in his last four events, finishing T-8 at Abu Dhabi and T-6 at Saudi International. After shooting 70-70 at Riviera, shot 71-72 on the weekend.
√ Has played well on the par-4s and par-5s at Club de Golf Chapultepec. On the par-4s, he is 10 under, and on the par-5s 20 under.

7. Hideki Matsuyama

√ This guy could be the big surprise of the week, as he is still very underrated. Has not played great in his two starts at Club de Golf Chapultepec, finishing T-25 in 2017 and T-19 in 2019.
√ Should disregard those starts, as his game is too good for him not to play well on this course. Is fourth in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, 12th in Greens in Regulation, 17th in Par Breakers, great stats for Club de Golf Chapultepec.
√ Has shown steady improvement. Was T-12 at Sony, T-45 at Farmers, T-16 at Phoenix and T-5 at Genesis.

8. Jon Rahm

√ Has been in the top 10 in six of his last seven starts, including two wins. Was T-17 at Genesis
√ Played well in his first start at Club de Golf Chapultepec, finishing T-3. Was T-20 in 2018 and T-45 last year.
√ Is 18th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, T-29 in Greens in Regulation, T-5 in Putts Inside 10 feet, all great stats for Club de Golf Chapultepec.

9. Tommy Fleetwood

√ Has gotten worse every time he has played at Club de Golf Chapultepec. Was second in 2017, T-14 in 2018 and T-19 last year, finishing with rounds of 72-72.
√ Has struggled hitting greens and keeping it in the fairway at Club de Golf Chapultepec the last two years.
√ His game has been good since winning Nedbank in November. Was second at DP World at Dubai, T-2 at Abu Dhabi and T-11 at Dubai Desert Classic.

Players who could surprise

10. Matt Kuchar

√ Has been terrible at Club de Golf Chapultepec, finishing T-20, T-58 and 50th. Has only shot in the 60s three times in 12 rounds and is 5 over for his three starts.
√ Still, that could change big-time this year. He played great at Riviera, finishing second, and his stats could carry over to help him play better this week.
√ Was T-15 in Greens in Regulation, eighth in Scrambling and first in Putts Inside 10 feet at Riviera, so he should be able to do the same at Club de Golf Chapultepec.

11. Ryo Ishikawa

√ Is the best player on the Japan Golf Tour and has won three times since June.
√ On the Japan Golf Tour in 2019, was T-33 in Greens in Regulation, T-3 in Putting Average and first in Birdie Average with 4.55 per round.
√ Played on the PGA Tour in 2013 and fell flat, which was a big shock to him. Has played in Japan since then and won seven times.

12. Max Homa

√ In the midst of a good run, T-9 at Farmers, T-6 at Phoenix, T-14 at Pebble and T-5 at Genesis. He is 47 under over his last 20 rounds
√ His yearly stats are still not good, but at Genesis was 14th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, T-3 in Greens in Regulation and T-13 in Putting Inside 10 feet.
√ Is playing for the first time at Club de Golf Chapultepec, but if Riviera stats give an indication, look for another top-10.

13. Ross Fisher

√ Was T-3 in 2017 and T-46 in 2018 at Club de Golf Chapultepec. In eight rounds, has been in the 60s five times.
√ Hasn't played poorly this year, with T-6 at Abu Dhabi and Saudi International, but he did miss cut in Dubai.

14. Tyrrell Hatton

√ Has played all three years at Club de Golf Chapultepec, finishing 10th in 2017, T-3 in 2018 and T-19 last year. In 12 rounds, has only been over par once, so is a very good sleeper pick
√ Won the Turkish Airlines Open in November, was 46th at DP World Dubai and hasn't played since.

15. Daniel Berger

√ Was T-16 in 2017 and T-14 in 2018 at Club de Golf Chapultepec. More importantly, is 14 under in those eight rounds
√ Last two starts, was T-9 at Phoenix and T-5 at Pebble Beach. In his last 16 rounds on the PGA Tour, has not shot over par and is 36 under.
√ Is 42nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, 88th in Greens in Regulation, fourth in Putts Inside 10 feet, all great stats for Club de Golf Chapultepec.

Course may not suit them

Webb Simpson

√ Has always struggled at Club de Golf Chapultepec. Was T-37 in 2018 and T-39 last year. In eight rounds, he has only been in 60s once and is 1 under.
√ Has been in the top 10 in his last five starts and won at Phoenix his last time out.
√ Is third in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, third in Greens in Regulation and ninth in Putting Inside 10 feet, but he has never been good on poa annua greens

Xander Schauffele

√ Was T-18 in 2018 and T-14 last year. Has not been consistent, with eight rounds ranging from a low of 65 to a high of 74.
√ He should be good at Club de Golf Chapultepec, but seems to be in a rut, missing the cut at Farmers, T-16 at Phoenix and T-23 at Genesis.
√ Still don't think he will play terribly. His game is close, as he is second in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, 11th in Greens in Regulation and 27th in scrambling. He has struggled with the putter, but that can come back at any time.

Paul Casey

√ Has improved every time out at Club de Golf Chapultepec. Was T-16 in 2017, T-12 in 2018 and T-3 last year, finishing with rounds of 65-65.
√ Since winning the Porsche European Open in September, has struggled. Last two starts were T-64 at Pebble and T-37 at Genesis.
√ Is 35th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, T-43 in Greens in Regulation and T-40 in Par Breakers. His putting has been terrible in 2020 and it's the only thing that has kept him back.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-20-2020, 07:52 AM

nbaclub info

Golden State Warriors - Houston Rockets
Under 232

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-20-2020, 09:16 AM

John Morrison NBA System
Version 3
Memphis [A]

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-20-2020, 09:16 AM

Stephen Oh

PHILADELPHIA +105
PHILADELPHIA @ COLUMBUS | 2/20 | 7:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 8:45 PM
My projections see value on the Flyers in their Thursday matchup at the Blue Jackets. My projections see the short road underdog winning the game in 60 percent of simulations. Philadelphia is 20-8 when playing on one day of rest and 17-7 against Eastern Conference opponents. Columbus is mired in a six-game losing streak.

3-0 IN LAST 3 NHL ML PICKS | +300
9-4 IN LAST 13 CLB ML PICKS | +381

4-1 IN LAST 5 PHI ML PICKS | +304

OVER 230.5
MIAMI @ ATLANTA | 2/20 | 7:30 PM EST
YESTERDAY 8:33 PM
My data projects the Heat and Hawks to score at least 240 points Thursday coming out of the All-Star break, enough to soar past this substantial posted total. I've got the Over hitting in nearly 70 percent of simulations. Atlanta has played 10-1 to the Over in its past 11 home games, while the Heat are 12-3 to the Over when facing opponents with losing records.

7-0 IN LAST 7 NBA PICKS | +700
14-4 IN LAST 18 ATL O/U PICKS | +961

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-20-2020, 09:16 AM

SDQL Gurus

OVER 230.5
MIAMI @ ATLANTA | 2/20 | 7:30 PM EST
9:24 AM
The Heat are coming off a road loss prior to the All-Star break. This points to the Over, as Miami has gone Over 12 straight times as a favorite with three-plus days' rest following a road loss. Atlanta is coming off a 127-105 loss to Cleveland in which it allowed 48 buckets on 94 attempts. The Hawks have produced 10 straight Overs as an underdog with more than one day of rest after a double-digit loss in which they allowed at least 50 percent shooting from the field, going Over by an average of 16.95 points. Finally, Atlanta has gone Over the last seven times it hosted a team that is averaging more than 24 assists. We are on the Over.

2-1 IN LAST 3 NBA O/U PICKS | +92
UC DAVIS -2.5
UC DAVIS @ CAL POLY | 2/20 | 10:00 PM EST
9:20 AM
Cal Poly is coming off a 105-101 overtime loss to Cal State Fullerton in which it made four more baskets than its opponent. The Mustangs have not recovered from similar defeats, as they are 0-9 ATS following a single-digit loss in which they made more field goals than their opponent, including a 33-point defeat. UC Davis is at its best when visiting a team that does not record a lot of assists. Cal Poly is averaging only 10 assists while UC Davis is 12-0 ATS on the road vs. teams that have averaged fewer than 15 assists. We are on the Aggies.

OVER 153
ORAL ROBERTS @ DENVER | 2/20 | 9:00 PM EST
9:14 AM
The Pioneers have reeled off 13 straight Overs when they have fewer than six days' rest, and they are facing a team that has taken at least 30 percent of its field-goal attempts from beyond the arc. Oral Roberts is coming off a 94-80 win over South Dakota in which it had 16 assists and only three turnovers. This should have the Golden Eagles playing with confidence and aggression here, as they are 18-0 OU when they are coming off a win in which they had an assist-to-turnover ratio of at least 1.75, zooming over the number by an average of 18.25 points. We are on the Over.

4-2 IN LAST 6 CBB O/U PICKS | +179

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-20-2020, 10:38 AM

CleInsiderSports (35-26 L12 days)

NBA
Hornets/Bulls UNDER 211

NCAAB
Troy/Coastal Carolina OVER 152
Stanford +2

NHL
Coyotes ML (+155)
Panthers/Kings OVER 6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-20-2020, 10:38 AM

Killer Sports NBA
Detroit +13
Brooklyn Under 215

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-20-2020, 10:40 AM

Scott Spreitzer's CBB

3 Unit Play: Take 655 Santa Clara +14.5 over BYU

3 Unit Play: Take 661 USC +9.5 over Colorado

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-20-2020, 10:42 AM

FIFTH COLUMN DATA (Thursday Report)

BASKETBALL SELECTIONS
NBA: 3% OVER 226 [501] Milwaukee @ [502] Detroit 7:05est
[FCD: +5.85]
ANGLES & SYSTEM(S):

CBB: 3% UNDER 136.0 [661] USC @ [662] Colorado 9est
[FCD -5.96 ]
ANGLES & SYSTEM(S):

HOCKEY SELECTIONS
NHL: 3% UNDER 6 [1] San Jose @ [2] New Jersey 7:08est
[FCD -1.2 ]
ANGLES & SYSTEM(S):

NHL: 3% UNDER 5.5 [11] Arizona @ [12] St. Louis 8:08est
[FCD -1.16 ]
ANGLES & SYSTEM(S):

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-20-2020, 10:45 AM

Doc Sports ncaab

6-Washington-2.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-20-2020, 10:48 AM

Jason Sharpe ncaab

7 UConn+1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-20-2020, 10:53 AM

Carmine Bianco

5% play Europa League. Wolves -1

Service Plays Thursday 2/20/20

Service Plays Thursday 2/20/20

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