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DAVE ESSLER | CBB SIDES TUE, 02/25/20 - 9:00 PM
644 Miss. St -3.0 (-120) BetOnline vs 643 Alabama
triple-dime bet GOY
Analysis:
Even in a 3* I won't lay -3.5. We have an almost identical situation to last night in that Alabama smoked these guys in Tuscaloosa earlier this season, as WVU did to Texas. Alabama shot 42% from deÛep, 55% inside, and took 13 more free throws. That won't happen again, and it was also a bad situation for Mississippi State, on the road, having just played Auburn and about to play LSU. That Auburn game is still there only home SEC loss.The Bulldogs have the better record and with Reggie Perry, the best player on the floor.They have a huge length advantage and Alabama's weakness on defense is inside. not to mention they are a vastly superior free throw shooting team and get to the line a ton, which Alabama does not. Mississippi State plays slow, and Alabama is one of the more up tempo teams in the NCAA, so at home the Bulldogs will take Alabama out of what they like to do, and in SEC play the Bulldogs DO have an above-average perimeter defense. Alabama hasn't won two straight games since January when they won four straight, but three of those were at home and the road win was at Vanderbilt. Mississippi State hasn't lost two straight since that stretch against Auburn/Bama/LSU back in early January. Last year they lost at Alabama, and came back home to beat them by 19 and I see a similar situation here. That's all I got.
1-Unit Play. Take #603 Dayton (-12) over George Mason (7 p.m., Tuesday, Feb. 25)
The Flyers haven't really buried anyone in a while. They've played a few close games over the last few weeks and I still think that they have a blowout our two in them. I think that George Mason fits the bill for a team that Dayton can just manhandle. They don't start anyone taller than 6-7 and the Patriots are a terrible shooting team. I think Dayton is going to bury them. 1-Unit Play. Take #609 DePaul (+7) over Xavier (7 p.m., Tuesday, Feb. 25)
I still think that DePaul is better than their record suggests. They finally snapped their losing streak with a win over Georgetown on Saturday. I think they can at least threaten to do it again here. Xavier has been an up and down team all year and I don't trust their erratic offense. They are coming off a much bigger game, a home tilt against Villanova, and I think that they could have a letdown here. There's a reverse line movement in this game and I'll play the value. 3-Unit Play. Take #612 Michigan State (-8.5) over Iowa (7 p.m., Tuesday, Feb. 25)
Iowa played out of its mind against Ohio State. They jumped out to a 20-point lead in the first few minutes. They shot 56 percent from the field and picked up a big home win. But they were actually outplayed in the last 30 minutes of that game, getting outscored by 10 points. I don't think we have to worry about whether or not Michigan State will be ready to play here. The Spartans have not been playing well lately. And they have lost two straight home games. They won't lose three in a row here. 2-Unit Play. Take #614 Central Michigan (-2) over Toledo (7 p.m., Tuesday, Feb. 25)
Keno Davis' team is all offense and no defense. And since they usually shoot the ball well at home I think that they can shoot their way past Toledo. Toledo has taken a significant step backwards this year. They are just 5-9 in league play this season despite facing one of the weaker MAC schedules. I don't trust this team on the road and I don't see them picking up a road sweep through Michigan. 2-Unit Play. Take #631 Missouri State (+2.5) over Valparaiso (8 p.m., Tuesday, Feb. 25)
This Valparaiso team is trash. They have been playing way over their heads and have frankly been lucky over the last few weeks. They were down 15 in the second half at Illinois State and came back and won. They were down 13 points with seven minutes to play against Drake and sent that game to OT. Then Saturday they shot 64 percent from 3-point range (18-for-28) in a win over Bradley, overcoming another double-digit deficit. At some point their luck is going to completely run out. It took longer than it should have, but Missouri State's experienced roster is starting to play well together. They have won three of their last four games, with the wins all by double-digits and the loss in overtime on the road. They are on a 6-0 ATS run and they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10. 3-Unit Play. Take #638 Georgia Tech (-2.5) over Clemson (9 p.m., Tuesday, Feb. 25)
I'm going to keep riding Georgia Tech. This team can't win on the road to save its life. But they have been really good at home and, on the whole, they are better than their results suggest. They were robbed at Syracuse on Saturday and should've covered that number. That would've been three straight ATS wins and a 4-1 ATS run. Throw in another bad beat at Notre Dame and Tech should be on a 7-1 ATS run rather than the 5-3 ATS run they are on. 2-Unit Play. Take #644 Mississippi State (-4) over Alabama (9 p.m., Tuesday, Feb. 25)
Ben Howland's squad has been terrible on the road and really good at home. That's been the case for the past two months and I think that it will continue here. The Bulldogs lost by 21 at Alabama back on Jan. 8 so this sets up well as a nice revenge spot. Alabama shot 55 percent in their game at Ole Miss over the weekend. They aren't going to do that again here on the road. Miss State just needs a few more wins to lock up an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. I expect them to be focused and to pick up a win here and bounce back from a sloppy loss at Texas A&M. 1-Unit Play. Take #651 Colorado State (+13.5) over San Diego State (11 p.m., Tuesday, Feb. 25)
When a team takes a loss after a long winning streak, that loss can sometimes linger and have an effect on their next game. There is a natural letdown and I think that the Aztecs could fall victim to it here. These guys may well be wearing down as well. They don't use much f their bench so the starters have been logging big minutes all through league play. With the conference tournament and NCAA Tournament both coming up this team may already be looking ahead. 1-Unit Play. 5-POINT TEASER: Take #603 Dayton (-7) over George Mason (7 p.m.) AND Take #612 Michigan State (-3.5) over Iowa (7 p.m.) 1-Unit Play. 5-POINT TEASER: Take #630 Loyola-Chicago (-2) over Drake AND Take #641 Nevada (-3.5) over Wyoming (9 p.m.) 1-Unit Play. 5-POINT TEASER: Take #612 Michigan State (-3.5) over Iowa (7 p.m.) AND Take #631 Missouri State (+7.5) over Valparaiso (8 p.m.)
3-Unit Play. #630 Take Loyola (IL) (-7) over Drake (8 p.m., Tuesday, February 25)
The Ramblers have been automatic at home this year and in league play have given essentially every opponent a beatdown as a welcome to their home gym. I expect another strong showing against a Drake team that is just 2-9 on the road, compared to Loyola's 13-2 home mark. Looking to keep the pace just one game back of first place UNI, look for the Ramblers to show up against the Bulldogs.
7-Unit Play. #638 Take Georgia Tech (-2.5) over Clemson (9 p.m., Tuesday, February 25)
Georgia Tech has been a much better team this year at home in Atlanta, and you could make the argument had the Yellow Jackets had a full strength roster from the jump, perhaps this season would have played out a bit differently. With Jose Alvarado in the line-up, there is no question Tech is a more balanced and dangerous team. With him as one of the starting guards his team have three proven scorers on the court and it creates layers for the offense to work. Tech has home ACC wins over the likes of Louisville and N.C. State. Tonight they host a Clemson team with just three road wins from nine games. And while their last two on the road resulted in wins, I don't see another here against the Yellow Jackets. Sunday we faded Miami on the road off a road win with a 7-U play on Notre Dame, and the Irish won the game huge. Here we fade again against a bit of road success but calling for it to swing back around. Despite Clemson winning on the road vs. the likes of Pittsburgh and BC, Tech is a much better team than its losing record suggests. Remove these recent two wins from the Tigers' record and you see a 1-6 road record - that lone win coming against a UNC team that is awful and choked away a double digit lead in the final minutes. Clemson has road performances of 44, 44, 53 and 54 points. Outside of these past two wins, this team isn't scoring 60 on the road. That bodes well for the home Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech has held each of its last four opponents under 60 points, including previously mentioned Louisivlle and N.C. State. Another strong defensive output and a home winner. Tech over Clemson, 71-59.
4-Unit Play. Take #644 Take Mississippi State (-4) over* Alabama (9 p.m., Tuesday, February 25)
MSU has been so very good at home in Starkville, and I don't expect a poor performance against struggling road team Alabama. State has won six straight at home vs. SEC teams, while 'Bama has played awful defensively with 90 or more allowed in three of its past four contests away from home. I'll back the more reliable team at home minus a small number. Bulldogs by nine.
7-Unit Play. #107/#108. (5dimes) Competition: Champions* League. Take Over 2.5 Goals -135 - Barcelona/Napoli (Tuesday @ 3:00 pm). Includes 90 Minutes + Injury Time. For this selection to win, there must be three or more goals scored.
The line of 2.5 goals can be found at Bovada, 5dimes and William Hill.
As per your selection on the 'over' in this matchup between Barcelona and Napoli, you need not look further for offense then Barcelona's attack. The Spanish side has been held off the scoresheet just two times in their last 10 games while going over the 2.5 goal mark in seven of those 10 games. They are coming off a 5-0 drubbing of Eibar, a game in which Messi turned back the clock a bit and scored four times. They've also scored a total of 10 goals in their last three games, and with the way Napoli has defended at times this season, Barcelona will surely be able to get theirs. As for Napoli, they've come under a bit of resurgence of late, winning four of their last five games, while going over 2.5 goals in five of their last six games. They know what we know, in that for them to pull off the upset they are going to have to score goals and outscore Barcelona over two legs. They will be done for if they sit back and try to defend for a 1-0 win. It doesn't work like that. This is a game where the goals will come thanks to two teams playing free and open football.
11:11 AM
UNDER 231
MILWAUKEE @ TORONTO | 2/25 | 7:30 PM EST
For most matchups in the NBA at this point, playoff intensity isn’t a factor. For these two potential Eastern Conference Finals opponents, I am anticipating a very tight and gritty matchup. In their last three meetings, the Bucks and Raptors combined to average just over 205 points per contest. Look for a wire-to-wire game in which neither team eclipses the 115 mark.
37-29-1 IN LAST 67 NBA PICKS | +523
3-0 IN LAST 3 TOR O/U PICKS | +300
4 Unit Play. Take #585 Under 239.5 New Orleans at Los Angeles Lakers (10:05p.m., Tuesday February 25)
I knew this total would be high but not close to 240! Tonight the hot New Orleans Pelicans make a road trip to the Staples Center to play the LA Lakers and I see a very good game tonight. The Lakers won both games since the All-Star break and their defense gave up 112 points to the Celtics and 105 points against the Grizzlies. New Orleans is coming off a big win at Golden St winning 115-101 and that game went 'Under' and tonight I see this meeting at Staples stays 'Under'. New Orleans is 1-4 O/U against a team with a winning record. The Lakers are 4-9 O/U following a SU win.
FEATURED PICK
BOSTON -7.5
BOSTON @ PORTLAND | 2/25 | 10:00 PM EST
1:01 PM
Both teams will be missing key players in this game. The Blazers will have to play without Damian Lillard (groin) while the Celtics won’t have Kemba Walker (knee) available. Even without Walker, the Celtics almost pulled out a road win against the Lakers on Sunday. That same day, the Blazers had to mount a late charge to hold off the struggling Pistons at home. Before that, they were smoked my 13 points by the Pelicans. Even without Walker, I like the Celtics to cover.
85-51-1 IN LAST 137 NBA ATS PICKS | +2898
13-6 IN LAST 19 POR ATS PICKS | +639
7-5 IN LAST 12 BOS ATS PICKS | +152
OKLAHOMA CITY -7
OKLAHOMA CITY @ CHICAGO | 2/25 | 8:00 PM EST
1:03 PM
The Thunder are back on the road, so you know I’m intrigued. They are a stellar 21-5 ATS on the road, including 5-1 ATS as road favorites. Meanwhile, the Bulls are 12-17-1 ATS at home and are still dealing with a ton of injuries. Even if Wendell Carter Jr. (ankle) does return for this game, he will likely be on a minutes limit. Give me the Thunder to cover on the road once again.
85-51-1 IN LAST 137 NBA ATS PICKS | +2898
21-9 IN LAST 30 CHI ATS PICKS | +1109
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