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4-Unit Play. Take #659 Bowling Green (-3) over Miami, OH (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 29)
This game is a mismatch. Bowling Green is 21-7 on the season and Miami, OH is just 11-17. Miami does not have this strong of a home court advantage. They are just 9-5 SU at home this year. The road team has won four of six in this series and is on a 5-1 ATS run. Bowling Green has won three straight and is coming off a blowout win over conference leader Akron. They are on an 8-2 SU run overall and I think that they will get another win here. Miami is just 1-5 ATS after a win and they are 3-8 ATS at home against a team that is over .500. Bowling Green is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 road games and I like them to get the job done.
3-Unit Play. Take #795 Pacific (-4.5) over San Diego (10 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 29)
Head coach Damon Stoudamire has done a great job with this Pacific team. They are 22-9 on the season and will likely get invited to a postseason tournament. The Tigers have 10 league wins for the first time and have won seven of their last eight games overall. Pacific is 5-2 ATS as a favorite and 8-3 ATS as a road favorite. They have covered the spread in five of seven road games and are on a 4-0 ATS run overall. San Diego has lost four straight and they are coming off back-to-back blowout losses to St. Mary's and Gonzaga.
SAN DIEGO ST -5.5
SAN DIEGO ST @ NEVADA | 2/29 | 8:00 PM EST
12:26 PM
After a rough week at home where San Diego State lost its first game of the year to UNLV and then failed to cover a big number against Colorado State, the Aztecs hit the road where they have been at their best, going 13-0 and 12-1 ATS. They win by an average margin of 15 points on the road, while allowing just 39 percent shooting from the field. Great defense travels well. I’m on the Aztecs.
22-16-2 IN LAST 40 CBB ATS PICKS | +431
5-3 IN LAST 8 NEVADA ATS PICKS | +179
4-2 IN LAST 6 SDGST ATS PICKS | +176
MARYLAND -2.5
MICHIGAN ST. @ MARYLAND | 2/29 | 8:00 PM EST
12:19 PM
Michigan State has won its last two, giving the appearance that its struggles are over, but the Spartans are still playing below their high rating, going 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. Maryland comes off an epic comeback win at Minnesota -- the type of pivotal win we’ll be talking about in March as they head into the Elite 8. Maryland is the better team right now. I’m on the Terps.
22-16-2 IN LAST 40 CBB ATS PICKS | +431
5-4 IN LAST 9 MD ATS PICKS | +46
BAYLOR -8
BAYLOR @ TCU | 2/29 | 2:00 PM EST
11:30 AM
Baylor has gutted TCU the last two times the teams played, the last being a 68-52 win on Feb. 1. The Bears have covered three straight against TCU. I liked how Baylor responded with an 85-66 win against Kansas State following its first loss since November. TCU is going nowhere fast and has gone 2-8 ATS in its last 10. The favorite has covered nine of the last 10 meetings. Baylor gets the cover.
22-16-2 IN LAST 40 CBB ATS PICKS | +431
2-1 IN LAST 3 BAYLOR ATS PICKS | +89
SOUTH CAROLINA +5
SOUTH CAROLINA @ ALABAMA | 2/29 | 8:30 PM EST
11:18 AM
The visitors, 8-2 ATS on the road this season, would have been a justifiable play if Alabama were at full strength. The absence of G John Petty makes it ultra-appealing. Petty is the Crimson Tide’s least dispensable player: the team’s No. 2 scorer (15.6 points), the top rebounder (6.6 rebounds) and the most accurate three-point launcher in the league (45 percent). Gamecocks cover.
7-5 IN LAST 12 CBB PICKS | +150
3-1 IN LAST 4 SC ATS PICKS | +190
OKLAHOMA +8.5
OKLAHOMA @ W. VIRGINIA | 2/29 | 4:00 PM EST
11:16 AM
The matchup is not conducive for West Virginia to break out of its slump (1-5 ATS in the last six). The Mountaineers have become the gang that can’t shoot straight, having dipped to 251st nationally in field goal percentage and 334th on threes. The Sooners rank 45th defensively on field goal accuracy. They have been shaky away from home, but a 14-point win over Texas Tech on a neutral floor restores confidence. Take Oklahoma.
7-5 IN LAST 12 CBB PICKS | +150
2-1 IN LAST 3 WVU ATS PICKS | +96
7-Unit Play. Take #642 Indiana State (-5.5) over Valparaiso (2 p.m.)
I'm really just sick of this Valparaiso team. These guys stink. And they have been out over their skis over the last few weeks while winning four of five. This team has been shooting at a completely unsustainable rate, and regression should take hold sooner rather than later. Valpo is coming off a peak effort on Senior Night and now I think that they are going to come back down to earth in their final road game. This team is clearly looking ahead to next week's conference tournament and this is a throwaway game for them. Indiana State has won three straight and they have some mojo. They are also a really, really good home team. Valpo could be down two starters in this game (their best player missed last game with mono; he is questionable) and I just don't see how they will be nearly as motivated as Indiana State here.
1-Unit Play. Take #647 Seton Hall (+2.5) over Marquette (2:30 p.m.)
I've been saying all season long that I think Seton Hall is the best team in the Big East. I think they will prove it here by winning in one of the toughest venues in the league. I know Marquette has Markus Howard. But Seton Hall has Myles Powell, and I think he is just as good - if not better - than Howard. Seton Hall has an advantage in the frontcourt and I think they defend a bit better. I'll take the points.
1-Unit Play. Take #674 West Virginia (-7.5) over Oklahoma (4 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #681 Notre Dame (-2) over Wake Forest (4 p.m.)
This is a mammoth letdown spot for Wake Forest after their incredible win over Duke. I don't think that these guys are going to have anything left in the tank. The Deacons also play rivals North Carolina and N.C. State on deck, so I think they are caught in a little letdown/look ahead spot here. Notre Dame has quietly been playing very well over the last month and has won seven of nine. I think they will pick up another win here.
1-Unit Play. Take #684 VCU (-13) over George Washington (4 p.m.)
I think VCU is due. This line is conspicuously high for a team that has lost five straight and choked away a game to UMASS the last time out. I'm going to follow that shady number. George Washington almost took out Richmond its last time out and I think they will take a step back. This is not a good Colonels team and they have gotten rolled on the road against good teams. I think VCU finds a way to circle the wagons and get a blowout here.
1-Unit Play. Take #685 Northern Illinois (-1.5) over Western Michigan (4:30 p.m.)
NIU has Eugene German and you don't. That's basically how they are winning games in the MAC right now and this team has played itself to the top of the West. They deserve it. This is a solid team and they have won eight of 10. I think that the Huskies are riding high after their thrilling win at Eastern Michigan and I think that they can fend of just an awful Western Michigan team that is going nowhere fast.
3-Unit Play. Take #688 Illinois-Chicago (-3) over Oakland (4 p.m.)
I'm just going to keep riding Illinois-Chicago. This team is still undervalued. They have been playing really well over the last month and they have won nine of 12. They are one of the more talented teams in the Horizon and I think they will close out their final home game with a win. Their best three players are all seniors so these guys will be ready to go. Oakland is a mess this year and they have been horrible on the road. They are coming off a loss to a pathetic IUPUI team and I think that they will flop again here versus a more motivated opponent.
2-Unit Play. Take #706 Maryland (-2.5) over Michigan State (8 p.m.)
Michigan State just isn't that good. They really aren't. They are young and they don't have enough shooters. They certainly aren't going to push Maryland around in the paint and I don't think they have enough guys to make tough shots. Maryland is outstanding at home. They fluked out a win at Minnesota earlier this week and they were clearly looking ahead to this game. The are going to be ready to go tonight though and I'm looking for a peak effort.
1-Unit Play. Take #732 Duquesne (-8.5) over George Mason (7 p.m.)
George Mason stinks. They have been playing above their heads a bit lately, upsetting VCU on the road and hanging around with Dayton their last time out. I think they are in a letdown spot after taking a big swing and miss at the Flyers. Duquesne can be sneaky good in their own gym, and they have taken out teams like St. Louis and Davidson here. I just don't think that Mason is fully focused for this game and I think it will show.
1-Unit Play. Take #735 Dartmouth (-1.5) over Columbia (7 p.m.)
I'm really pissed at myself for not playing Dartmouth yesterday. I really liked them in Cornell. I think that they will get a rare road sweep. This team is undervalued and they are playing well right now. They have won four of five and they are just better than Columbia. The Lions lost way too much talent from last year's team and they are just 6-21 on the season. It has been ugly and they are on a 10-game losing streak. I don't think they will snap it here.
1-Unit Play. Take #782 Cal-Northridge (-4.5) over Cal-Fullerton (10 p.m.)
Northridge has Lamine Diane and you don't. Diane is a future NBA player, and you don't find that in the Big West every year. The rest of this team stinks. But he is good enough to carry the load. Fullerton is a bit of a dumpster fire this season and they haven't won a road game in over a month. They beat Northridge in the first matchup but I don't think they are good enough to get the sweep.
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 147.0 St. Mary's at Gonzaga (10 p.m.) 1-Unit Play. 5-POINT TEASER: Take #773 Belmont (-4.5) over Tennessee State (8:30 p.m.) AND Take #727 North Carolina (+9.5) over Syracuse (4 p.m.) 1-Unit Play. 5-POINT TEASER: Take #785 Utah State (-3.5) over New Mexico (10 p.m.) AND Take #720 Richmond (-6) over Massachusetts (6 p.m.) 1-Unit Play. 5-POINT TEASER: Take #732 Duquesne (-3.5) over George Mason (7 p.m.) AND Take #647 Seton Hall (+7.5) over Marquette (2:30 p.m.) 1-Unit Play. 5-POINT TEASER: Take #674 West Virginia (-2.5) over Oklahoma (4 p.m.) AND Take #727 North Carolina (+9.5) over Syracuse (4 p.m.)
OVER 221
ORLANDO @ SAN ANTONIO | 2/29 | 8:30 PM EST
1:05 PM
The Spurs returned home Wednesday after an eight-game road trip (2-6) and promptly lost to the Mavericks. The Magic are playing great ball again after a three-game losing streak and have gone 5-1 in their last six with all six games going Over the total. They played at home last night and beat the T’Wolves 135-125. Look for the Spurs to run with them and get this game Over the total.
11-8 IN LAST 19 NBA PICKS | +226
3-0 IN LAST 3 SA O/U PICKS | +300
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