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5-Unit Play #865-866 Southern Illinois/Bradley GAME TOTAL UNDER 125 (Friday, March 6 at 3:30 PM ET)
Take Southern Illinois/Bradley GAME TOTAL UNDER as my top college basketball pick for Friday afternoon. This pick falls into one my top college basketball systems and Southern Illinois has averaged just 56.7 points per game on the road this season while shooting 38.5% as a team. Southern Illinois has also shot just 29.4% as a team from beyond the arc on the road this season and I expect Bradley to step up defensively. Bradley has shot just 39.6% as a team on the road this season averaging 66.3 points per game and opponents have shot just 39.4% against them this season. The over/under is 1-9 in Southern Illinois' last 10 neutral site games as an underdog and the over/under is 5-15-1 in Bradley's last 21 neutral site games when favored. Play the UNDER
3-Unit Play #832 Bowling Green -2.5 over Buffalo (Friday, March 6 at 6:00 PM ET)
Take Bowling Green ATS as my top college basketball pick for Friday. This pick falls into one my top college basketball systems and this is a Bowling Green team that beat Buffalo by one point at Buffalo back on January 31 despite being outrebounded by 12 in that game. Bowling Green has held opponents to shooting just 40% against them at home this season and just 29.9% from beyond the arc. Bowling Green's opponents have also shot just 64.3% against them from the line at home this season and I expect them to step up defensively here tonight. Buffalo has struggled defensively allowing 78.4 points per game over their last 5 games and 77.1 points per game on the road this season. Play Bowling Green ATS.
4-Unit Play # 882 Pepperdine -3 over Santa Clara (Friday, March 6 at 11:00 PM ET)
Take Pepperdine ATS as my top college basketball pick for Friday night. This pick falls into one my top college basketball systems and I have Pepperdine winning this game by 10 points here tonight in this neutral site game from Las Vegas. Pepperdine beat Santa Clara twice this season by an average of 9 points per game with a home victory and away victory against the Broncos. Pepperdine has shot 38.4% as a team from beyond the arc on the road this season and 76.9% from the line. Santa Clara has shot just 68.5% from the line this season on the road and 31.8% from beyond the arc. Santa Clara has also struggled defensively with opponents shooting 46.9% against them over their last 5 games. So play Pepperdine ATS
4-Unit Play #545 Oklahoma City -7 over New York (Friday, March 6 at 7:30 PM ET)
Take Oklahoma City ATS as my top NBA pick for Friday night. This pick falls into one my top NBA systems and Oklahoma City's 21-8 in their last 29 road games. Oklahoma City is also the superior team here and they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against New York. Oklahoma City is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games when playing a team that has a losing record at home and I expect them to finish this game strong after letting last game slip away in the 4th quarter which cost us the game by one point. Oklahoma City beat New York by an average of 21.5 points per game in their last 2 meetings and I expect a dominant win by them on the road here tonight especially after letting Detroit come back in the 4th quarter of their last game. Play Oklahoma City ATS as my winning NBA season continues.
2-Unit Play. Take #866 Bradley (-5.5) over Southern Illinois (3:30 p.m., Friday, March 6)
Bradley is the defending conference tournament champion and I think that they will get another winner here. They blew out Southern Illinois in the first meeting this year, winning 67-48, and they are 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings in this series. The Salukis are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games and they are 0-4 ATS as an underdog. Southern Illinois is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games in this tournament. The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams and I like Bradley to get the job done here.
3-Unit Play. Take #868 Loyola (-5) over Valparaiso (7 p.m., Friday, March 6)
Valparaiso was able to hold off Evansville last night. Now they are going to try to knock off the Ramblers here in the quarterfinals of the Missouri Valley tournament. Loyola has won six of its last seven games and the Ramblers have beaten Valparaiso seven straight times. Loyola is 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Crusaders. Valparaiso is just 6-15 ATS after a win and 2-6 ATS as an underdog. Lay the points.
Game: (553) Orlando Magic at (554) Minnesota T\'wolves
Date/Time: Mar 6 2020 8:05 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 5%
Play: 1H Total Over 114.0 (-107)
View Analysis
What exactly is this total? The full game total is damn near 234...and these 2 teams just played last week in Orlando to the tune of 224 points in the 1st half! Orlando has had multiple games in between...and measuring their 1st half defensive metrics over just the past 3 games...they rank right there at the bottom:
Opponent EFG% (65%!), 3 point %, opponent points scored from 3, opponent TS% (132%!),
These 2 teams over the previous 3 games each have allowed 63 first half points to opponents...and in the first half have a def. rating of 126 (Orlando, worst) and 117 (Minny, 5th worst)...Minny runs at a 108 pace in the first half lately while Orlando is RIGHT THERE with them at 102 in the first half. All of these numbers drop off in the second half...even more perplexing for the totals being hung!
There is a lot more I could write...as I capped this to be at 119 and honestly would have probably leaned that Over then as well...as there is really no reason for this to be below 120 at all!
Hurry now though as I think this goes UP. ALL. DAY!
Game: (865) So Illinois at (866) Bradley
Date/Time: Mar 6 2020 3:35 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Bradley -3.0 (-106)
View Analysis
SIU is not coming into this MVC tourney in a good spot AT. ALL. The neutral court aspect eliminates a little tiny bit of the excellent cap here on the Braves...but the Salukis are a DOA type tourney team...while Bradley comes in pretty hot...even almost knoking off Loyola, losing by a point in OT. the numbers scream out, and in the last 5 games there is a 20 point differential in offensive efficiency, does not turn the ball over on their possessions, and SIU will vastly lose the battle on the glass...on each end, but one and done will be the entire first half for SIU.
-3 is a great spot because Bradley also has been shooting excellent from deep..nearly 38%
I like this to be at least double the current spread and Bradley to most likely continue it on and fulfill the W for full game, but is a much less +EV play!
Game: (871) VMI at (872) Samford
Date/Time: Mar 6 2020 5:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Total Under 73.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Neutral site and a high 1st half total...points to an Under with our numbers and a couple of rough rough SoCon offenses
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