Service Plays Saturday 3/21/20

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sam Houston

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Stakes - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $75000 Class Rating: 71

BARA LASS S. - FOR FILLIES, THREE YEARS OLD, ACCREDITED TEXAS BREDS. NON NOMINATION FEE. $500 DUE AT TIME OF ENTRY. STARTERS TO PAY AN ADDITIONAL $500. $2,000 SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATIONS MAY BE MADE AT TIME OF ENTRY AND SHALL INCLUDE ALL FEES. THE PURSE TO BE DIVIDED; $1,000 TO ALL STARTERS SIXTH THROUGH LAST. THE REMAINING BALANCE TO BE DISTRIBUTED : 60% TO THE WINNER, 20%

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 ALWAYS INTHE MUNNY 7/2
# 10 DANCIN ALL ALONE 9/2
# 1 GEE SHE SPARKLES 5/1

My pick in this competition is ALWAYS INTHE MUNNY. Is hard not to examine based on speed figures which have been very good - 74 avg - of late. This group is much easier than the last one she was up against. Has been consistently running well lately. DANCIN ALL ALONE - This selection will feel the med change - with second time Lasix today. Always good to invest in a conditioner with this kind of formidable win percentage - 20 percent - at this distance & surface. GEE SHE SPARKLES - Must be given a shot given the class of races run as of late. Looks very good for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid figs in dirt sprint races recently.

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Claiming - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $8250 Class Rating: 84

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 MY MAN MEMO 3/1
# 2 UNIQUE WAYS 3/1
# 1 CM SINGING THE BLUES 5/2

MY MAN MEMO looks to be a decent contender. Has to be given consideration versus this field displaying formidable figures lately and an average speed figure of 79 under similar conditions. Lately Ayala has been on fire which may give the edge to this gelding. Posted a very strong speed figure last time out. UNIQUE WAYS - Formidable average Equibase Speed Figs in short races make this racer a solid choice. Ought to compete quite well in the pace battle which bodes well with this field. CM SINGING THE BLUES - Going in a short race gives this gelding a very good shot. Ought to go to the front end and may never look back.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Fair Grounds - Race #2 - Post: 11:30am - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $50,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating:

#13 DREAMALILDREAMOFU (ML=3/1)
#5 FLABBERGASTED (ML=6/1)


DREAMALILDREAMOFU - Cox is great in turf routes. This equine should have no allowances if she doesn't win. Good winning percent this rider and trainer duo have been putting together. Had a solid closing move in the last race, running the last quarter in less than 25 seconds. A similar race today, and it's straight to the winner's circle. Average Equibase class figure is tops in this field. I think that is a big advantage for a grass race. She has the highest EPS (earnings per start). Take a good look at this horse. FLABBERGASTED - I believe this thoroughbred will be right there at the wire. Gets Lasix for the 2nd time, so Casse must have confidence in her.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 FATE FACTOR (ML=5/1),

FATE FACTOR - Unlikely that this entrant will be at her best this time around off the long layoff. Maybe next time out.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #13 DREAMALILDREAMOFU to win if we can get at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,13]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	13 with 5 with [8,11,16] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	13 with 5 with [2,4,8,11,16] with [2,4,8,11,16] Total Cost: $20

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #7 - Post: 3:02pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,900 Class Rating: 76

Rating:

#1 AUGUSTO B (ML=20/1)
#2 DETERMINED (ML=12/1)


AUGUSTO B - This gelding should give a strong account of himself in today's race. DETERMINED - This gelding is in good condition. Ran second on March 3rd. This horse has increased his speed figures in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth taking notice of.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 SQUEEGEE (ML=3/1), #12 CRACKIN JON (ML=9/2), #5 BOLD CHARMANT (ML=5/1),

SQUEEGEE - I don't normally play a chalk horse that hasn't been to the track in the last two to three weeks. This gelding registered a speed fig in his last race which likely isn't good enough today. CRACKIN JON - This horse notched a rating in his last event which probably isn't good enough in today's event. BOLD CHARMANT - Finished sixth last time out of the box. Would have to advance to be on the board in today's race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #1 AUGUSTO B to win if you can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Aqueduct

03/21/20, AQU, Race 2, 2.01 ET
1M [Dirt] 1.32.02 STARTER ALLOWANCE. Purse $55,000.
(UP TO $9,570 NYSBFOA) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN OR CLAIMING
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (2-4) - Pick 4 (.50) Races (2-5), Double
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.00	5	Our Last Buck	3-1	Franco M	Nevin Michelle	SF	43.85	1.14/$1
098.10	6	Kumar	3-1	Lezcano J	Rodriguez Rudy R.	JC	50.00	1.58/$1
097.45	3	Super Silver	9/5	Carmouche K	Levine Bruce N.		32.33	0.87/$1
096.81	4	Traveling(b-)	7/2	Vargas. Jr. J A	Rodriguez Rudy R.		36.00	1.10/$1
096.24	2	Starting Point	6-1	Hernandez B	Kantarmaci Mertkan	EW	37.65	1.06/$1
095.29	1	Vineyard Sound	20-1	Cancel E	Davis Edmund D.	L	37.65	1.06/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 36.41, ROI 0.85/$1

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Santa Anita Park

PURCHASE

03/21/20, SA, Race 3, 1.29 PT
1 1/8M [Turf] 1.44.00 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $57,000.
Claiming Price $20,000 (Non-Starters For A Claiming Price Of $16,000 Or Less In Their Last 3 Starts Preferred). FOR CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLDAND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $15,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000
$1 Exacta /$0.50 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double - $0.50 Rolling Pick Three (Races 3-4-5) / $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.00	5	Sassyserb	4-1	Rispoli U	Baltas Richard	TF	35.00	1.46/$1
098.37	1	Absolutely Perfect	7/2	Van Dyke D	Blacker Dan	E	32.37	1.13/$1
097.33	4	Scarlet Heat(b+)	5/2	Prat F	Blacker Dan	JS	32.37	1.13/$1
097.01	7	Flying to the Line(b-)	6-1	Diaz. Jr. J	Kitchingman Adam	L	35.94	1.62/$1
096.71	2	Oh Pretty Woman	6-1	Smith M E	Mullins Jeff	C	32.41	1.31/$1
095.39	3	Avalon Ride	5-1	Velez J I	Lewis Craig Anthony	W	32.41	1.31/$1
094.28	6	Swing Thoughts	6-1	Franco G	Desormeaux J. Keith		32.41	1.31/$1

* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 28.00, ROI 1.02/$1
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.00	4	Scarlet Heat(b+)	5/2	Prat F	Blacker Dan	JSF	32.81	1.33/$1
098.08	5	Sassyserb	4-1	Rispoli U	Baltas Richard	T	36.42	1.33/$1
097.59	1	Absolutely Perfect	7/2	Van Dyke D	Blacker Dan	E	32.81	1.33/$1
097.25	3	Avalon Ride	5-1	Velez J I	Lewis Craig Anthony	W	32.81	1.33/$1
096.88	2	Oh Pretty Woman	6-1	Smith M E	Mullins Jeff	C	36.42	1.33/$1
095.59	6	Swing Thoughts	6-1	Franco G	Desormeaux J. Keith		36.42	1.33/$1
093.77	7	Flying to the Line(b-)	6-1	Diaz. Jr. J	Kitchingman Adam	L	25.86	1.24/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 30.00, ROI 2.49/$1

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Eddie Olczyk’s Louisiana Derby Picks: Upset Brewing?

by Eddie Olczyk

March 18, 2020


Before we jump into analyzing this race, I just want to ask that all of us horseplayers to stay smart and healthy out there. Thankfully we can bet the races from the Fair Grounds, Santa Anita, Gulfstream, Aqueduct and more with our Xpressbet accounts.

Sixteen horses have entered the Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds (only fourteen can start) and among them are nine horses exiting the split divisions of the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes, which were contested here on February 15. Modernist, who rode the rail to victory in one of those races, is stuck with Post Position 14 on Saturday, which could severely hinder his chances.

As you’re handicapping, be sure to keep an eye on the forecast. Early predictions show on-and-off showers throughout the day Saturday in New Orleans, so just keep that in mind when evaluating the contenders and building your bets. Believe it or not, my picks should hold true rain or shine.

I see plenty of speed signed on for this race. #3 WELLS BAYOU, #11 NY TRAFFIC and #14 MODERNIST want to race on/near the front and a few others have tactical speed and can race just behind them. Those are the horses I’m going to build my bets around.

#7 SHARECROPPER is a 20/1 outsider on the morning line but I think he has a huge chance here. Two starts ago he broke his maiden at Churchill Downs in a key race that produced next out winners Sounion, Excession and Banks Island. If the name Excession looks familiar, he just finished second at odds of 82/1 behind Nadal in the G2 Rebel Stakes. In SHARECROPPER’s comeback race on February 15, I think he was too close to the pace in a slowly run race. Moreover, when it came time to run he found himself hemmed in behind horses without clear sailing for most of the stretch.

With a better trip on Saturday, I expect a much better result. My hope is that the speed horses are sent to the lead and SHARECROPPER’s jockey, Miguel Mena, sits back and makes one big run. If he’s able to avoid traffic and find racing room at the right time, I think he has a big chance.

I’m going to use SHARECROPPER alongside some of the other tactical horses - #2 MAILMAN MONEY (15/1), #8 ROYAL ACT (10/1) and #9 PORTOS (8/1).

Betting Strategy:

• $10 Win, Place, Show: SHARECROPPER ($30)
• $1 Trifecta Box: SHARECROPPER, MAILMAN MONEY, ROYAL ACT, PORTOS ($24)
• $10 Exacta Key: SHARECROPPER over MAILMAN MONEY, ROYAL ACT, PORTOS ($30)

Eddie’s Picks

1. #7 SHARECROPPER
2. #2 MAILMAN MONEY
3. #8 ROYAL ACT
4. #9 PORTOS