Service Plays Tuesday 3/24/20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-24-2020, 10:05 AM

Al Cimaglia: March 24-Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis

March 24, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Cal Expo is back on a new night with the first post scheduled at 6:05 EST. The 0.20 Pick 4 will begin in Race 7. The sequence has a $30,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7

1-Gorgeous For Real (5-1)-Makes 4th start off the bench and last outing was the best so far. Pilot doesn't win often but this post gives him more options. Meets easier and the barn might be waking up. Using and should offer a nice price.
4-Bunker Hill Bill (5-1)-Has finished 2nd when leaving from the 10 and 9-hole in last 2 starts. Gets class relief and post relief but 9-year-old has trouble cashing the biggest check. Should be a player but might be over bet.
5-Almost Cut My Hair (5/2)-Drops out of the Opens and picked up checks there. Did win at this class on 3-6 from this post. Could trip out behind #4 and will likely be bet hard but is a must use.

Race 8

3-Greekona (9/2)-Got on the engine and almost hung on over the weekend. That type of trip isn't typical, was used hard in the 3rd quarter and faded. Looking for another big try with some better rating, maybe a 2-hole trip behind #10.
10-Dontcloseyoureyes (3-1)-Took the long way around last time from the 8-hole and beat 3 from this field. My guess is Roberts will leave and get on the engine but either way, should be a major player.

Race 9

1-Senga Nitro (6-1)-Having the rail will help and fits with this crew. Should be in the hunt at a square price and could get a cozy pocket trip behind the program chalk #7.
3-He Grins Again (4-1)-Drops again looking for a win. Roberts sticks, gets post relief and should be forwardly placed. It's best to not overlook.
7-Contemporary Legend (2-1)-Even effort in last but was off 3-weeks. One of a few dropping and looking to pick up a win. Should be able to get the top and not use up a lot of gas, will respect connections but will look to others as well.

Race 10

2-Bet Together (5-1)-Loses Plano because he trains #7 but does step down and Svendsen can work a good trip. Can be put in play early and could offer a square price.
3-Western Devil (5-1)-Roland picked over #1 and the program chalk #4. Raced big in last and now bumps up but still can pose a threat versus this crew. Barn has been rolling and should be in line for a nice trip.
7-Mr Varsity (3-1)-Drops and this is the softest spot this year. Smells like a drop and pop situation for Team Plano.

0.20 Pick 4

1,4,5/3,10/1,3,7/2,3,7
Total Bet=$10.80

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-24-2020, 10:06 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Fonner Park - Race #2

#5 Getaway Driver	Intriguing returnee hasn't been out since June when 6th against tons better at PM, goes for a 24% local Black barn, and has been working big in the AM; call to come back running.
#2 Overanalyzer	Class riser chased, kicked clear, then grimly held on against lesser last time, so this tougher group will test him, though he should trip out nicely just off the speed; looms very scary.
#1 Lovethatcause	ML favorite was a solid 2nd at the level and looks like the one to catch here, but there's other speed signed on, and 'Over won't let him get too far away early either; trying to beat.
Race Summary	That 6-1 ML seems very inviting on the pick, and even 4-1 or so seems fair for a runner who was last seen at a better circuit, and goes for a barn hitting on all cylinders here, so play him in all the slots, and especially to kick off the Pk4, since there's a chance the public looks past the fresh new face, which seemingly would be a big mistake.

Fonner Park - Race #6

#4 Picadilly Roadster	Stalker was improved 2nd off the long break last time, makes the pivotal third start of his form cycle, will be a nice price, and gets a ton of speed to rally into; upset special.
#9 Gone Preachin	Closer was 2nd and ahead of the pick last time, though some 3 lengths behind the chalk, and while he too will like the pace, cutting back a half-furlong won't help; second-best.
#2 Shooters Alley	ML favorite has sped off and won for fun in his last two, while beating the top-2 last time, but meets plenty of other speed here, so wiring won't be as easy; comes unglued late.
Race Summary	Pace makes the race and there's a ton of it here, and that will really flatter the chances of the 4, while likely hurting those of the 2, so play him in all the slots, and especially to kick off the Pk5 as well, since he looks like he's coming up to a big run, which means a win would spice up the sequence right off the bat.

Fonner Park - Race #8

#6 Mayzee	Lightly raced runner just missed when beaten a neck off an April layoff last time, behind a repeat winner too, and the dip into state-bred stakes foes really isn't a class rise; look out.
#8 Love at Night	Deserving stiff ML favorite wins this with her usual, and she is 9-for-11 here, but there's plenty of other speed signed on, and she'll be a very short price as well; backwheel time.
#7 Chub's Charmer	Stalker has been a fixture in these Nebraska-bred stakes races for a long time, and though she comes off an August layoff, the fast pace should suit her style; can rally late for a share.
Race Summary	The fact they will be the 8 hard only adds to the appeal of the 6, as she's going to be a very square price and looks to be coming up to a big race, which means the risk-reward is there to try for the upset, so play her in all the spots, and in the Pk5 as well, since anyone on a budget will be singling 'Night, which means a win by the pick would knock out all of the budget players and really blow up the sequence.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-24-2020, 10:06 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fonner Park - Race #1

#8 Youngboy	Won a race with better at Delta before getting DQ'ed, so this drop makes him an obvious player off a useful try with better last out.
#10 Brave One	Fell short at 8/5 last time out, but his baseline effort keeps him right in the mix with the top choice here.
#6 Go West Indy	Doesn't seem like a super serious threat on top, but he might be useful in the underneath spot here at a square price.
Race Summary	Youngboy's best stuff would get the job done with these, and he has never been in this easy in his career.

Fonner Park - Race #4

#6 Youwonderwhyidrink	Has not shown much in two starts so far, but they have both come with better groups than he's going to find today. Chance off the layoff.
#5 Texas Witt	Tough to back this guy in his 20th lifetime start, but he owns several running lines that would make short work of this bunch -- it's just a matter of which guy shows up today.
#3 Wild Paint	Two-back run would probably do the job here, but he may be a bit overbet in this spot where he isn't really any better than the rest.
Race Summary	Youwonderwhyidrink has only had two starts with better, and many in this bunch have had more than their share of chances (This is start number 40 for #9 Captain Amante at 9/2 on the ML).

Fonner Park - Race #9

#4 For the Hustle	Has been in really good form for a few starts now, and the local figures he's earning stack up with the best in here. 10/1?
#9 Awesome Emmit	Good try last out off the bench, and if he can step forward in this second try off the layoff, he can be competitive in a race he ran second in at 24/1 last year.
#6 Ourbestfriend D L	ML favorite got rocked in those last two Oaklawn races, but those were with horses that are nothing like what he's going to face here. Big chance.
Race Summary	For the Hustle owns the best last-out BRIS speed figure and has now run two really good races over the local footing. Can't imagine there's a way he offer 10/1 at post time, but he's intriguing still at something closer to half that.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-24-2020, 10:07 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Cal-Expo - Race #1

#1 HI HO’S LITTLE REV	Post switch, race shape, driver’s choice makes him today’s Best Bet.
#7 PANEDICTINE	Discount latest, last won at this level, needs some pace flow.
#8 BECKYS DREAMBOAT	Even-paced in 1:53.3, gets Plano, early position the key.
Race Summary	Hi Ho’s Little Rev, parked by the winner and pocket-sitting favorite through a :57 middle half, should go a long way from up close with favorable post switch. He was driver’s choice on a triple call, so play 1-5, 1-6 and 1-8 exactas.

Cal-Expo - Race #2

#1 VILLA FOR RENT	Improved try in latest as he looks to get back on the winning track.
#3 BUDGIE SMUGGLER	Tipped 3-wide for drive, wrapped up late as top pair separated from field.
#5 CENALTA EXPRESS	Second in 3-horse qualifier, met short-priced winners last summer.
Race Summary	Villa For Rent raced first-over through solid middle fractions set by the 3-to-5 winner. He won five times last year, draws the rail and offers fair betting value. Play a 1-3-5 exacta box.

Cal-Expo - Race #4

#6 FLY AWAY	Shuffled as pace slowed, rallied widest, can turn tables.
#4 ETHAN HANOVER	Classy 11yo failed to sustain eye-catching move in latest.
#5 WHO DAT LOVE	Got away easy on front end in repeat victory at this level two back.
Race Summary	Fly Away raced fifth through single-file, opening half mile, lacked room on the turn and swung 5-wide in the stretch to close with a rush for second. He won’t get much pace in a short field but he’s good enough to overcome it with a clean trip. Play 6-ALL exacta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-24-2020, 10:07 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Will Rogers Downs - Race #3

#3 2 Flash Forcast	Tried turf and got no positive results in his last two and returns to two turns on dirt; has a good closing move and can turn around his form here.
#1 Sonic Jet	Gave way in a strong allowance at Oaklawn and takes a big dip here; his races from Remington last fall would put him in the hunt in this one.
#3 Kirk of Diamonds	Ended 2019 with a win for $10,000 at Remington is back up to the allowance ranks; can get a piece of this.
Race Summary	Flash Forcast didn't care for grass and should be able to rev up for a big rally vs. these.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #5

#1 Meeka	Won three of her last four at Hawthorne and looks like the speed of the speed; under good hands with Hernandez.
#4 Fool's Paradise	Could benefit from a speed duel and could be just off the pace; fits well with these.
@#6 Baydar	Has some good two-turn races to her credit in New Mexico and Iowa and can be in the mix throughout.
Race Summary	Meeka won some good sprints last year and can get on the front end here; has the class to stretch out.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #7

#3 Dak Da Man	Can benefit from a lively pace in front of him and is capable of running them down in the stretch; has been in tougher spots.
#2 Sedaris	Won the main track at Remington four back and most recently closed ground vs. open company at Sam Houston; can be close up in this one.
#5 Big Game Hunter	Didn't fire vs. solid starter allowance foes last time and should benefit from being back with the state-breds.
Race Summary	Dak Da Man has the best closing move in her and can adjust accordingly to the pace; has the class to win this one.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-24-2020, 10:08 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fonner Park

Fonner Park - Race 5	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / .50 Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7)
Claiming $2,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 76 • Purse: $3,700 • Post: 5:18P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2019 - 2020. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. HARMONY GROVE is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * HARMONY GROVE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. BORN FORCE : Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. XAVIER DAVEY: Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or four th start after a layoff. FORZE MAU (VEN): Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
8	HARMONY GROVE	12/1	5/1
5	BORN FORCE	2/1	6/1
4	XAVIER DAVEY	15/1	7/1
9	FORZE MAU (VEN)	6/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	HARMONY GROVE	8	12/1	Alternator/Front-runner	77	70	71.0	65.2	52.2
4	XAVIER DAVEY	4	15/1	Stalker	81	68	60.5	74.6	69.1
6	GREEN CARD	6	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	76	75	67.6	54.6	45.1
2	RAIN RAY	2	3/1	Trailer	74	64	38.2	67.8	54.8
9	FORZE MAU (VEN)	9	6/1	Trailer	86	73	33.8	63.4	57.9
5	BORN FORCE	5	2/1	Trailer	82	76	24.1	68.9	62.9
7	COMO SE LLAMA	7	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	79	59	70.0	56.8	43.3
3	DRIBBLES	3	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	84	73	50.8	62.2	54.7
1	LIL' QUARTER CHUTE	1	25/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	39.0	44.4	26.4
10	SPUR	10	25/1	Alternator/Non-contender	69	67	26.3	58.8	43.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-24-2020, 10:08 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers Downs

Will Rogers Downs - Race 1	Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta (.50) / Superfecta (.10) First Half of Daily Double
Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 65 • Purse: $9,900 • Post: 1:15P
FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 24, 2019 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. DIXIE DELTA is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DIXIE DELTA: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. I'M THEBOSSRIGHTNOW: Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). SMART BOX: Horse's average winnin g distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
10	DIXIE DELTA	5/1	3/1
6	I'MTHEBOSSRIGHTNOW	7/2	5/1
12	SMART BOX	9/2	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
10	DIXIE DELTA	10	5/1	Front-runner	72	59	71.8	60.6	51.1
12	SMART BOX	12	9/2	Front-runner	70	54	54.0	49.8	37.3
8	FLASHFLOOD WARNING	8	10/1	Front-runner	71	62	38.0	43.8	29.3
3	HOBBS HOPE	3	10/1	Front-runner	68	62	0.0	0.0	0.0
6	I'MTHEBOSSRIGHTNOW	6	7/2	Alternator/Front-runner	82	76	57.8	42.2	36.7
4	HOOKED ON A HIT	4	4/1	Stalker	70	62	51.2	57.2	48.7
11	TOSKIKO	11	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	67	61	45.4	56.6	42.1
9	SARAH ELISE	9	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	61	58	35.7	49.8	33.3
1	EURO STEP	1	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	73	55	35.4	54.2	45.2
5	SMOOTH AS BOURBON	5	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	65	52	43.8	45.8	27.8
7	MARVS CLASSIC LADY	7	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	62	70	32.9	25.5	5.5
2	WIN IN THE WILLOW	2	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	77	57	18.5	42.8	31.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-24-2020, 10:09 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sam Houston

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $18500 Class Rating: 84

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 115 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. TEXAS BRED CLAIMING PRICE $30,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 10 MO GEE 6/1
# 7 MORHAWK 5/2
# 12 GILES 20/1

MO GEE has a very good shot to take this race. Shows evidence of the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 83 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the most competitive in this group. He has a good opportunity for this event as conditioner, Diodoro, has solid win clip with horses going this distance. This racer is highly ranked this group of horses in earnings per start a

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-24-2020, 10:09 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Sam Houston - Race #1 - Post: 12:05pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 67

Rating:

#4 RIKKI'S GIFT (ML=8/1)
#2 SUSIE DERKINS (ML=4/1)
#6 DIAMOND DIVA (ML=15/1)

RIKKI'S GIFT - Ran in the last race against a better field at Sam Houston. The move down in class ranks should suit her well. I think this filly is ready to run a good one. She's had enough outings since the layoff and should be fit. SUSIE DERKINS - Diodoro tried her against the males last time out. This should be a good spot. She has the highest earnings per race. Check out this thoroughbred. Three consecutive improved Equibase speed figures (48-53-61) make this thoroughbred a strong contender. DIAMOND DIVA - This rider and handler's horses have been producing a favorable return on investment.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 TRISTAN'S GOLD (ML=2/1), #1 FRUHL'N AROUND (ML=5/2), #7 SALUTARY (ML=7/2),

TRISTAN'S GOLD - Didn't make up ground at all on March 11th. Hard to bet on this time at the expected odds. Tough to wager on any horse like this that didn't finish in the money after the long turnout and comes right back. Doubtful that the speed fig she registered on March 11th will hold up in this clash. FRUHL'N AROUND - No wager value on this participant at the likely odds of 5/2. SALUTARY - This less than sharp equine ran a disappointing speed figure last time around the track. She shouldn't run better and will probably get beat in today's race running that fig.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 RIKKI'S GIFT to win at post-time odds of 7/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-24-2020, 10:10 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fonner Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7040 Class Rating: 41

FOR CERTIFIED NE BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 10 SWEET COWGIRL 4/1
# 9 G G HOLIDAY 5/2
# 7 MISS ELISE 8/1

SWEET COWGIRL is the top wager in this race. Haar will probably be able to get this filly to break out sharply in this race. The average Equibase class figure of 29 makes this horse tough to beat. G G HOLIDAY - Looks strong against this field and will probably be one of the early speedsters. MISS ELISE - In this field, this entrant is highly ranked earnings per start in dirt sprint races.