Service Plays Monday 4/6/20

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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

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Fonner Park - Race #3

#10 Scotia Queen	Pace player dueled then tired badly at odds-on last time when 3rd at the level, but this outside attack post works, she meets a weak field, and will be a better price; can make amends.
#1 Gaby Vee	Newcomer hasn't been out since June but was facing tons better in Maryland, and new trainer Gonzalez is 27% with new additions to the barn, so she could be very live; do not ignore.
#5 Laine's Peach	Lifetime maiden isn't a win threat at 0-for-33 but she was a good 2nd last time and will close, and there's some speed in here, so she could rally late for a share; logical exotics contender.
Race Summary	That 6-1 ML on the pick is laughable, but she could still be 7-2 or so, and that would be enough to come along, since there's no one to fear here and she should trip out nicely too, so play her in all the slots, and especially the early Pk5/Pk4, since there are plenty of others who will take some play, which means a win will knock out a lot of live tickets.

Fonner Park - Race #5

#5 Hot Item	Returnee hasn't been out since September but was in solid form while facing better, and posting figures that make him a threat here, plus he should get some speed to run into; upset special.
#9 Cowboy Dan	Stiff class dropper was in too tough against starter-allowance foes last time, so he's back with his friends here, which makes him a threat, as does his stalking style; price player underneath.
#6 Lonesome Highway	Uninspiring ML favorite just beat lesser at 12-1 and now rises in class, so sure, coming off a win is always good, but it was in modest time, and he'll be a fraction of the price here; tread lightly.
Race Summary	The price should be square on the 5 (not that 10-1 ML though), and that's about you can ask for in a race like this, where no one stands out, and there are a lot who look very dicey, so give him a look in all the slots, and to end the early Pk5/Pk4, and kick off the jackpot late Pk5 as well, since a win in the 6-1 range would add plenty of value to all three sequqences.

Fonner Park - Race #6

#1 Dixie Delta	Fast miss didn't fire in the slop last time then caught a runaway winner at the level two-back, but she looks like the controlling speed here, and will be a price; hoping she forgets to stop.
#6 Atoka Girl	Class dropper makes a lot of sense on that angle alone, and her figures are solid too, but he lack of speed is a concern, as she'll be spotting the pick several lengths early; second-best.
#3 Anwara	ML favorite is a lot like the 6, in that she too has been facing better and fits on paper, but also doesn't have a lot of speed, which won't help her chances in the lane; may run out of room.
Race Summary	Pace makes the race and there's not a lot here, and that really flatters the 1, while potentially hurting the 6 and 3, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially in the jackpot late Pk5, and to kick off the late Pk4 as well, since she's going to get completely overlooked here, even though there's a chance she gets brave on the engine at a big number.

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Fonner Park - Race #1

#3 Trip Code	Debuter meets a somewhat questionable bunch outside of a pair who figure to take their share of cash, so I'll take a shot with a fresh face here with an improved drill.
#4 Mr. Big Shot	Forward player should get another good run of it, and he draws outside of other pace player who finished just in front of him last out, so he can pressure that guy throughout.
#2 J Train	Handled Mr. Big Shot when they met last out, but he draws nearer to the fence and may not get a particularly easy go of things today.
Race Summary	Trip Code is worth a look at first asking in a spot where Mr. Big Shot and J Train look tough to get past, but neither has shown much finishing interest.

Fonner Park - Race #8

#7 Chickes Done	Hard to argue with the local debut when prompting the pace and scoring by an easy four with maiden company, and if she didn't run too big off the layoff, something similar would make her tough with these.
#8 Live Large	Exits one of the better races -- that N1X at Delaware last year was tougher than what the locals have been facing -- and she drilled a bullet over the local footing. Intriguing here, but the major layoff lines give me enough pause to put her here instead of on top. Cover.
#10 Global Exchange	Local form has been solid through those last two starts, but the wide draw could lead to a tricky trip. Wouldn't be too excited for anything shorter than the 5/2 ML price.
Race Summary	Chickes Done handled the local footing quite nicely in a romping maiden win, and though the waters are deeper here today, she can get another good trip near the top.

Fonner Park - Race #9

#3 Dukati	Didn't show anything in the local debut after getting away slowly, but that came with a better bunch, and there is back form that suggests a bit more tactical trip could be in store today.
#8 Runarounddancing	Steps up off the easy win with cheaper last time out, but the baseline effort is good enough to score with these, and he's got just enough positional pace to work out a trip.
#10 Big Hearted Factor	Wide post isn't ideal, but he should appreciate the drop back in for $5,000 while trying to finish from off the splits.
Race Summary	Dukati might offer a fair price on the drop out that starter spot, and he's back quick after that run, so he may not have used a whole lot of gas while running in a circle last out.

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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Will Rogers Downs - Race #0

#7 Two the Punch	Won his last two at Turf Paradise and completed each in fast time; closed with a rush in his last three and gets a good pace set-up here.
#5 Game Day Decision	Pressed throughout and held 3rd in a tough allowance race at Sam Houston; can bring some late heat.
#2 Strong Side	Finished willingly and was 3rd, beaten just a length in a similar spot last out; won two of his last four and can carve out of a good trip.
Race Summary	Two the Punch rallied strongly at Turf Paradise, which is not easy to do; accomplished veteran is the one to hold off here.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #7

#2 Figure	Ships in from New Mexico, where he was competitive in some rapid races; often improves position and could get a pace that will work in his favor.
#7 Labhay	Makes his 1st of the year after finish Gulfstream and Gulfstream West with two wins; has rallied against slow turf fractions and could make a strong run here.
#1 Karate Hottie	Bounces around several different levels and has had a productive year despite having just one win in five starts.
Race Summary	Figure needs a fast pace, which he'll probably get, and likely will be rolling late in the game.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #8

#1 Castanuela	Was a clear winner in two of her last four, can get to the lead from the rail and should be able to dig in vs. this level of competition.
#5 College Queen	Improved to 3rd last out at Turf Paradise and can make a strong run here; could win it with a fast pace in front of her.
#7 Daisy Can	Can be close to the pace and could inherit the lead if the top choice falters; capable of a big effort.
Race Summary	Castanuela can mix it up with any of these and should benefit from taking the shortest way home.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers Downs

Will Rogers Downs - Race 6	Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta (.50) / Superfecta (10.) / Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8)
Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 69 • Purse: $8,250 • Post: 3:45P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 6, 2019 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * VERONICA'S DREAM: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ANGEL'S CUT: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. ECO STAR: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. GIVEN KISSES: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMa ster Power Rating.
5	VERONICA'S DREAM	7/2	5/1
1	ANGEL'S CUT	3/1	6/1
8	ECO STAR	12/1	6/1
7	GIVEN KISSES	4/1	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	GIVEN KISSES	7	4/1	Front-runner	67	70	71.8	63.4	56.9
8	ECO STAR	8	12/1	Front-runner	80	72	65.8	53.6	46.1
5	VERONICA'S DREAM	5	7/2	Alternator/Front-runner	73	78	69.4	66.2	59.7
1	ANGEL'S CUT	1	3/1	Stalker	71	71	49.8	65.6	61.6
4	SHA BLUSH	4	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	62	65	59.7	50.2	36.2
6	EMILY'S PEGASUS	6	5/2	Trailer	62	55	47.4	48.6	37.1
2	SHE'S GOT FRIENDS	2	12/1	Trailer	73	66	45.8	53.6	45.1
3	WHEW	3	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	67	57	28.4	59.4	49.9

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fonner Park

Fonner Park - Race 3	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / .50 Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 55 • Purse: $6,400 • Post: 4:54P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. ALICIA'SVALENTINE is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ALICIA'SVALENTINE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. WITTS DATA LINK: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" d esignation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. EBONY NIGHTS: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. SCOTIA Q UEEN: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
7	ALICIA'SVALENTINE	12/1	9/2
6	WITTS DATA LINK	5/2	9/2
2	EBONY NIGHTS	4/1	9/1
10	SCOTIA QUEEN	6/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	ALICIA'SVALENTINE	7	12/1	Front-runner	52	56	66.4	30.1	22.1
10	SCOTIA QUEEN	10	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	45	49	64.2	39.2	29.7
6	WITTS DATA LINK	6	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	58	56	40.4	47.6	45.1
2	EBONY NIGHTS	2	4/1	Trailer	56	44	45.2	39.2	33.7
8	GETTIUP AND GO	8	20/1	Trailer	49	24	5.2	18.2	3.2
1	GABY VEE	1	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	45	48	21.2	37.0	27.5
5	LAINE'S PEACH	5	5/1	Alternator/Trailer	49	40	12.2	30.8	18.8
9	SOUTH CAROLINA	9	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	54	23	22.1	18.2	6.7
3	RIVER WILD	3	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	13.3	15.6	1.1

Unknown Running Style: D WITCHES OF O TWO (12/1) [Jockey: Martinez Ricardo - Trainer: Chavez Manuel].

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Fonner Park - Race #4 - Post: 5:21pm - Claiming - 4.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $3,700 Class Rating: 87

Rating:

#8 PROUD ITALIAN (ML=8/1)
#9 LANGS LEGEND (ML=10/1)
#5 IN CONTROL (ML=12/1)


PROUD ITALIAN - This gelding likes to be near the lead. Today's event is a shorter trip and should help his likelihood of winning. This gelding's last race was better than looked. He showed good early zip, dropped back a bit but held even through to the finish. That 87 fig this gelding garnered in his last event tells me he's a major player this time. LANGS LEGEND - This gelding likes to be near the lead. Today's event is a shorter trip and should help his likelihood of winning. Gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. IN CONTROL - After the race aboard this horse on March 25th, the rider is going to be in tune with the gelding much better.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 SPA SHACKALACKA (ML=3/1), #10 FREE MUSIC (ML=9/2), #4 WELL MANNERED (ML=5/1),

SPA SHACKALACKA - 3/1 is not worth the risk for any thoroughbred in a sprint of 4 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a short distance event lately. FREE MUSIC - The speed figs continue to decline, 70/55/21. Not a healthy sign. WELL MANNERED - You believe this equine is going to be first just because he's always close. Just doesn't get the job done often. Don't think this racer will make a winning move today. That last speed rating was common when compared with today's Equibase class figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #8 PROUD ITALIAN to win if you can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,8,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [5,8,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $8250 Class Rating: 69

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 6, 2019 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 GIVEN KISSES 4/1
# 1 ANGEL'S CUT 3/1
# 5 VERONICA'S DREAM 7/2

GIVEN KISSES looks to be the bet in here. Has competitive early pace and will most likely fare well versus this group of animals. Is a key contender - given the 79 speed figure from her most recent race. ANGEL'S CUT - Could provide positive profits based on solid recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 65. Trainer boasts solid win numbers at this distance and surface. VERONICA'S DREAM - This mare looks strong in this competition since Guillory has a strong win percentage with horses going this distance. Ran a strong last race.

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Paul Leiner

Horse Pick 4/6

Mon Apr 06, 2020 8:22 am

Got a Stakes race out of Will Rogers Downs today. Race 9

$10 win/place/show #2 Estilo Feminino

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Rk Sports Services Free Sports Picks
1. NSA(The Legend) HORSES – Australia A Race 2: #7 to WIN
2. Gameday Network HORSES – Fonner Park Race 9: #2 to WIN
3. VegasSI.com HORSES – Australia B Race 1: #3 to WIN
4. Vegas Line Crushers HORSES – Fonner Park Race 8: #4 to WIN
5. Sports Action 365 HORSES – Will Rogers Down Race 8: #4 to WIN
6. Point Spread Report HORSES – Australia A Race 7: #9 to WIN
7. Lou Panelli HORSES – Australia B Race 3: #15 to WIN
8. Gerry “Big Cat” Andino HORSES – Fonner Park Race 5: #2 to WIN
9. VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club HORSES – Australia B Race 6: #13 to WIN
10. William E. Stockton HORSES – Fonner Park Race 4: #4 to WIN
11. Vincent Pioli HORSES – Australia A Race 9: #13 to WIN
12. Steve “Scoop” Kendall HORSES – Will Rogers Downs Race 10: #8 to WIN
13. SCORE HORSES – Australia B Race 3: #12 to WIN
14. East Coast Line Movers HORSES – Fonner Park Race 3 : #7 to WIN
15. Tony Campone HORSES – Australia A Park Race 8: #9 to WIN
16. Chicago Sports Group HORSES – Will Rogers Downs Race 2: #7 to WIN
17. Hollywood Sportsline HORSES – Fonner Park Race 6: #7 to WIN
18. VIP Action HORSES – Australia B Race 5: #8 to WIN
19. South Beach Sports HORSES – Australia Park A Race 5: #12 to WIN
20. Las Vegas Sports Commission HORSES – Australia Park C Race 6: #14 to WIN
21. NY Players Club HORSES – Will Rogers Downs Race 7: #6 to WIN
22. Fred Callahan HORSES – Fonner Park Race 4: #8 to WIN
23. Las Vegas Private CEO Club HORSES – Australia B Race 2: #18 to WIN
24. Michigan Sports HORSES – Australia A Race 4: #6 to WIN
25. National Consensus Report HORSES – Australia C Race 1: #7 to WIN