Service Plays Tuesday 4/7/20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-07-2020, 06:54 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fonner Park - Race #3

#6 Ye Be Judged	Has done little wrong in two starts so far, and he's got enough speed to find a forward spot on the move around two turns today.
#7 Backchatter	Solid score last out when stretching around two turns locally, and a repeat of that might be enough to get the job done with these.
#2 Kat Dude	Never picked up in the local debut, but he's probably capable of something better than that in this spot. Still, not sure I'd be too excited about him at something like the 5/2 ML when he was no threat at 14/1 last out.
Race Summary	Ye Be Judged should get a good run of things from close range as he moves around two turns, and that seems to be the biggest question with two really sharp one-turn races to his credit.

Fonner Park - Race #4

#7 Where's Rufus	Likely chalk wasn't embarrassed with better in the local debut, and he can put that early pace to use again while facing a softer bunch today.
#9 Ohtani	Finished about five lengths behind the top choice in that same common race, but it still might be the kind of effort that keeps him in line for a piece of this on the drop.
#6 Cliff's Place	Has proven capable of big thing at similar trips based on the two-back run, but he was overmatched last out with better. Would want him on the tickets.
Race Summary	First leg of the MANDATORY Pick-5 payout that should have a huge pool in this current climate with no other serious racing happening today. The top trio all seem capable, and this has the look of the kind of race where you can single the top choice or go three-deep. I'll opt for the latter.

Fonner Park - Race #5

#6 Spotitude	Can't imagine anything close to the 8/1 ML offering, even after this guy was a distant third with similar at 6/5. Either of his last two tries would probably be good enough to handle this group.
#2 El Diablo Grande	Figures in line for another good trip near the top, but he has been in great spots in each of his last five races and failed to seal the deal. Can he win? Yes, but he seems more likely to stick around underneath while fading a bit late.
#4 Getaway Driver	Showed nothing last out when trying better, but he has run well enough over the local footing in the past to think there might be a bounce-back effort in store today.
Race Summary	Another race where I wouldn't argue with anyone trying to take a stand with Spotitude or El Diablo Grande, but I think a couple others have claims here, too, including Getaway Driver and maybe #9 Panic Button on deeper tickets in today's mandatory Pick-5 payout.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-07-2020, 06:55 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Fonner Park - Race #6

#7 Shooters Alley	Streaking runner has aired in three straight, while showing a hint of a rating gear last time, though he looks like a Lone F here, and, while this is a class rise, he fits like a glove on paper and may not even be favored; chalk up another.
#5 Ship Stalker	ML favorite just beat AOC foes while predictably improving off the Gonzalez claim, so sure, he hits hard here, but his lack of speed is a worry, as he'll be spotting the pick several lengths when they come off the far turn; second-best.
#6 Smarty Party Papa	Tricky read just-missed when 2nd at the level two-back then regressed mightily when dipped to 7.5k last time, so his form is questionable, but the rise is a confident one, and he's another who will benefit from a lack of pace; mixed signals.
Race Summary	That 7-2 ML seems a gift on the 7, as he probably should go favored, so make an aggressive win and place bet if the tote allows, but his real value comes in the mandatory payout late Pk5, as well as the late Pk4, since you can get some guaranteed value by singling him, which will allow for more coverage elsewhere, as he looks to be in a great spot here, and yet a win over the 5 will still knock out a ton of tickets.

Fonner Park - Race #7

#5 May Flowers	Class riser came from nowhere, literally and figuratively to win last time, and while a bounce is entirely possible, note Hall is 6-for-28 on the year, so he knows the score, and at 4-1 or so, the risk-reward to string along will be worth it; call right back.
#3 Extreem Caution	The horse to beat stepped up and was a fine 3rd in a local stakes last time, so clearly he's going to hit hard here on the drop into the claiming ranks, and any of his last several runs would make him the winner if the pick regresses; huge chance.
#2 Honey Hearts	ML favorite lost to 'Caution last time when 4th, though he did have a terrible start and didn't make the lead, more noteworthy sine he wired his previous three, but he's still slow on figures, which won't scare the top-2; willing to make him prove it.
Race Summary	The price should be right on the 5, which helps alleviate the worry about the rise in class, and it's not like either the 2 or 3 are any great shakes, so play him in all the slots, and especially the mandatory payout late Pk5, as well as the late Pk4, since a win by the presumed third-choice will certainly add some value to both sequences.

Fonner Park - Race #8

#2 Harmony Grove	Big longshot has been speeding off early and tiring late, so he'll be ignored here, but he's a Lone F on paper, and surely won't have to duel like he did last time, and in a race where the majority of the major contenders have no speed, he might get brave off the far turn; bombs away on the engine.
#4 Gone Preachin	Expected favorite is 4-1 on the ML, which is comical since he not only drops in class but is clearly best on figures too, but he also doesn't have any early speed, and therefore if the pick feels like running, this one will be left with a lot to do in the lane, at an underlaid price as well; may run out of room late.
#9 Born Force	ML favorite rates as the main danger to the expected chalk off his last two local runs at the level, which netted a win and a 2nd, but note he too is lacking any early speed, which essentially makes him look like a poor man's version of 'Preachin, who himself might not even get there; tread very lightly here.
Race Summary	Pace makes the race and there's not a lot here to keep the 2 from making the point without have to work too hard, and that's how 20-1 upsets have been known to happen, so don't overlook him in all the slots, and especially to end the mandatory payout late Pk5, as well as the late Pk4, since he's going to be completely ignored, which means a win would absolutely blow up both sequences.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-07-2020, 06:55 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Will Rogers Downs - Race #5

#5 Seattle Thunder	Won going two turns last time and can get a fast pace set-up here; he's faced with many sprinters and should be able to pick them off in the stretch.
#1 Miltontown	Gutted out a nice allowance win the slop here last time and has the class to be a power player this time around as well.
#4 Taruca	Just missed last out and can be a forward player for every jump of this; has won going two turns.
Race Summary	Seattle Thunder gets an ideal pace in front of him today, faces many that are suspect going long, and can bring the late heat.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #0

#4 Nym	Closed with a rush and won going away at Sam Houston; has the best closing move and can be up in time vs. these.
#3 Sand Harbor	Turns back from longer races and should be able to benefit from others setting a rapid pace; should enjoy his return to the dirt.
#1 Hollywood Square	Battled most of his latest at Turf Paradise before tired from sharing in fast fractions; likely to be in the mix from the start.
Race Summary	Nym has the best closing move and has been in good form since November; can take dead aim at a fast pace and likely will have drive to the wire.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #10

#2 Cataroux	Tired in a good spot last time out, which was his 1st since May; had won three of four local starts going into that one and should be able to show a lot of improvement in his return.
#9 Royal Creed	Comes in off a gate-to-wire score at Turf Paradise and can press from the start; has done a lot of traveling and can be a factor in his 1st one at WRD.
#8 Rocky Boy Indian	Won a N3L ran two back at Turf Paradise and then ran a decent 4th vs. much better there; can stalk them today and should be tough late.
Race Summary	Cataroux badly needed his last start and he tired in a tough heat; well placed in his return.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-07-2020, 06:56 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fonner Park

Fonner Park - Race 6	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / .50 Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8)
Starter Allowance $5,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 85 • Purse: $7,100 • Post: 6:15P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000, NEBRASKA-BRED $6,500, OR LESS IN 2019 - 2020. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * SHIP STALKER: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. HUNTERS APPEAL: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. SHOOTERS ALLEY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. COMMANDER MCDIVITT: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). DUKATI: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days.
5	SHIP STALKER	5/2	6/1
2	HUNTERS APPEAL	6/1	6/1
7	SHOOTERS ALLEY	7/2	7/1
3	COMMANDER MCDIVITT	6/1	8/1
4	DUKATI	8/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	COMMANDER MCDIVITT	3	6/1	Stalker	83	76	84.0	72.4	60.9
7	SHOOTERS ALLEY	7	7/2	Stalker	79	82	59.4	77.4	69.9
1	CHUCKMATE	1	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	88	74	59.2	77.0	67.5
5	SHIP STALKER	5	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	86	83	47.8	78.0	73.5
2	HUNTERS APPEAL	2	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	81	80	46.0	82.0	77.5
4	DUKATI	4	8/1	Trailer	91	77	47.2	74.4	65.9
6	SMARTY PARTY PAPA	6	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	84	79	75.8	73.0	65.5
8	BREAK FREE	8	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	75	65	50.6	52.8	37.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-07-2020, 06:56 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Fonner Park - Race #1 - Post: 4:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $4,100 Class Rating: 54

Rating:

#1 GO CHIVA GO (ML=6/1)
#7 ALPINE EMPIRE (ML=5/2)

GO CHIVA GO - Based on the information I have, he's a strong closer. May be worth a few bucks. The morning line odds on this horse are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of trainer Gourneau. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. Last race was at Belterra Park in a race with a class number of 62. Dropping a significant amount in Equibase class figure this time around puts him in a solid position right here. ALPINE EMPIRE -

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 SLEEPY TURTLE (ML=3/1), #2 DOCTOR HOT (ML=4/1), #3 PIT FIRE (ML=8/1),

SLEEPY TURTLE - Mediocre speed figure last time out at Fonner Park at 6 furlongs. Don't feel this less than sharp equine will improve too much in today's race. DOCTOR HOT - 4/1 is too low of a price to take on this participant. PIT FIRE - I foresee disappointment for this animal in this event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - ALPINE EMPIRE - This gelding takes a big tumble in the Equibase class rating department from a rating of 67 down to 54. Strong contender.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #1 GO CHIVA GO on the nose if you can get odds of 9/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-07-2020, 06:57 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $23760 Class Rating: 67

FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 MR MISLEADING 10/1
# 3 NOVEMBER MIKE 2/1
# 4 WHAT THINKING 3/1

MR MISLEADING looks like the wager in here especially at a such a nice price. Could provide positive dividends based on formidable recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 59. I like Sanchez on this colt to give him a solid chance to hit the wire first. Is a definite contender - given the 59 speed rating from his most recent race. NOVEMBER MIKE - Recent figures for the jock - 23 win percent - make this colt stand out in this group. Luzzi will almost certainly be able to get this colt to break out early for this event. WHAT THINKING - With a sound 53 average speed fig at the distance, seems well suited for today's race. This animal is at the top in this group of horses in this race in earnings per start at the distance/surface.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-07-2020, 06:57 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Will Rogers Downs - Race #6 - Post: 3:45pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,550 Class Rating: 72

Rating:

#3 CHAMPAGNE'S ON ICE (ML=5/2)

CHAMPAGNE'S ON ICE - Diodoro brings this gelding back into a race rather than a workout. He knows his gelding is on top of his game. Rider hops back aloft after getting to know the mount by riding last out. That's always a good indicator. A winning percent like 32 is outstanding for any rider/trainer pair. A pony coming back this promptly after a solid race is a good omen.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 GO FOR JIM (ML=2/1), #4 SPICY LEGACY (ML=5/1), #1 WOODS OF CONGAREE (ML=6/1),

GO FOR JIM - Difficult to bet on this mount in today's event. Make him show you something in a sprint affair before you bet on him in a race of 5 1/2 furlongs. SPICY LEGACY - In any event of 5 1/2 furlongs, I like to play a contender that has been sharp in short distance affairs lately. The speed figure in the last race doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class rating of today's event. Mark this entrant as a likely underpriced equine. WOODS OF CONGAREE - Disappointing speed figure last time out at Will Rogers Downs at 6 furlongs. Don't think this less than sharp equine will improve too much in today's event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - CHAMPAGNE'S ON ICE - After a layoff, has had a few races and today he enters a sprint race. Should be back in form, so I expect this animal to perform well right here.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #3 CHAMPAGNE'S ON ICE on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	3 with 8
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-07-2020, 11:38 AM

Rk Sports Services Free Sports Picks
1. NSA(The Legend) HORSES – Australia A Race 2: #3 to WIN
2. Gameday Network HORSES – Fonner Park Race 8: #6 to WIN
3. VegasSI.com HORSES – Australia B Race 1: #8 to WIN
4. Vegas Line Crushers HORSES – Fonner Park Race 7: #2 to WIN
5. Sports Action 365 HORSES – Will Rogers Down Race 8: #6 to WIN
6. Point Spread Report HORSES – Australia C Race 7: #4 to WIN
7. Lou Panelli HORSES – Australia B Race 3: #2 to WIN
8. Gerry “Big Cat” Andino HORSES – Fonner Park Race 5: #9 to WIN
9. VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club HORSES – Australia B Race 6: #6 to WIN
10. William E. Stockton HORSES – Fonner Park Race 1: #8 to WIN
11. Vincent Pioli HORSES – Australia A Race 9: #13 to WIN
12. Steve “Scoop” Kendall HORSES – Will Rogers Downs Race 10: #3 to WIN
13. SCORE HORSES – Australia B Race 3: #15 to WIN
14. East Coast Line Movers HORSES – Fonner Park Race 3 : #5 to WIN
15. Tony Campone HORSES – Australia C Race 8: #10 to WIN
16. Chicago Sports Group HORSES – Will Rogers Downs Race 2: #4 to WIN
17. Hollywood Sportsline HORSES – Fonner Park Race 6: #8 to WIN
18. VIP Action HORSES – Australia B Race 5: #11 to WIN
19. South Beach Sports HORSES – Australia Park A Race 5: #8 to WIN
20. Las Vegas Sports Commission HORSES – Australia Park C Race 6: #5 to WIN
21. NY Players Club HORSES – Will Rogers Downs Race 7: #1 to WIN
22. Fred Callahan HORSES – Fonner Park Race 7: #4 to WIN
23. Las Vegas Private CEO Club HORSES – Australia B Race 2: #2 to WIN
24. Michigan Sports HORSES – Australia A Race 4: #11 to WIN
25. National Consensus Report HORSES – Australia C Race 1: #11 to WIN

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-07-2020, 05:56 PM

Jonathon Kinchen

Pick 4 at Will Rogers Downs begins with Race 7 at 5:15 p.m. ET and ends with Race 10.

Will Rogers Downs 7th
1 Hollywood Square (5-2)
His last three sprint races are all good enough to win this race. His only poor performance this year came when trying two turns in an off-the-turf race. High-percentage trainer Robertino Diodoro saddles this one, and the gameplan has to be, "Catch me if you can."

4 Nym (3-1)
Won at this level last time. Will need someone to pressure Hollywood Square.

5 Aggieville (8-1)
It is really hard for me to pick this horse as a Longhorn. He ran well in the mud off the layoff but will need to find more to compete with this group. The price will be good enough to find out if he's good enough.

A: 1
B: 4,5

Will Rogers Downs 8th
This is an interesting race with a bunch of 3-year-old first time starters, an experienced 4-year-old with no early speed and a 6-year-old rocket that is making only his fourth career start.

3 Im the Man Now (3-1)
This horse is fast early and is more physically mature than his 3-year-old opponents. He will be out front, and the young and inexperienced horses in the race are going to have their work cut out to catch him.

2 Justins Omen (7-2)
This 4-year-old closer could benefit if one of the 3-year-old firsters shows speed and rains on Im the Man Now's parade. I don't trust Justins Omen, but I respect him.

1 Docs Lucky Jax (8-1)
This is the only 3-year-old I can endorse. This colt had some nice figures (for this group) as a 2-year-old, and the last race in the slop was a good stepping stone. Could improve.

A: 3,
B: 1,2

Will Rogers Downs 9th
5 Nero (2-1)
Talk about a class edge. Nero was once considered one of Bob Baffert's best 2-year-olds. Now age 5, he is a quirky individual but ran pretty well last time at Oaklawn Park. Maybe new trainer Steve Asmussen is figuring him out. Nero should be able to win this race on class alone, but it's hard to know what the equine Dennis Rodman is going to do.

1 Minster of Soul (3-1)
Ships in from Arizona, and his last three races put him right there. Has speed and the rail draw. I expect him to be on the lead with Nero sitting right off him. May the best horse win.

A: 1,5
B: None

Will Rogers Downs 10th
This last leg is a spread race for me, but that's OK since we have been so narrow in the first three legs.

1 Cheers and Prayers (6-1)
Comes in off a 206-day layoff, but he has won two races fresh in the past. Last two races were on turf, but he has won two races on the Will Rogers dirt.

6 Westmont (12-1)
Might have gotten caught chasing in a merry-go-round race. The first three horses ran 1-2-3 all the way around the track; Westmont ran fourth. Could improve at a big price.

8 Rocky Boy Indian (7-2)
Last two races put him right there for a trainer (Robertino Diodoro) who is winning at 28 percent at the meet.

9 Royal Creed (3-1)
His last race makes him the most likely winner of this, but I question how good that race actually was. The figure came back good, but he might not get the lead in here.

10 Big Guy Ian (5-1)
Was a big, 4-5 favorite in his last start. He barely missed but ran on a track with some moisture. A dry track could propel him forward.

11 Fafa (12-1)
The stretch-out to one mile in his last race didn't seem to agree with him, but his sprint effort in the starter allowance two starts back could be the key.

7 Jrock (15-1)
Hasn't gotten his picture taken on the Polytrack that he has been running on at Turfway Park, but his last win was going 5½ furlongs on the dirt. I don't love him, but he is worth including in a spread race at a big price.

A: 1,6,8,9,10,11
B: 7

Wagers
All-A ticket
$2 Pick 4: 1 with 3 with 1,5 with 1,6,8,9,10,11 ($24)

Three-A, one-B tickets
$1 Pick 4: 4,5 with 3 with 1,5 with 1,6,8,9,10,11 ($24)
$1 Pick 4: 1 with 1,2 with 1,5 with 1,6,8,9,10,11 ($24)
$1 Pick 4: 1 with 3 with 1,5 with 7 ($2)

Two-A, two-B tickets
$0.50 Pick 4: 4,5 with 1,2 with 1,5 with 1,6,8,9,10,11 ($24)
$0.50 Pick 4: 4,5 with 3 with 1,5 with 7 ($2)
$0.50 Pick 4: 1 with 1,2 with 1,5 with 7 ($2)

Total wager: $102

Service Plays Tuesday 4/7/20

Service Plays Tuesday 4/7/20

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