Service Plays Saturday 4/11/20

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 358322

    #16
    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)



    Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 9
    $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager)
    Claiming $20,000 • 350 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3-4 CR: 85 • Purse: $9,170 • Post: 9:44P
    QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR THREE AND FOUR YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; FOUR YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.
    Contenders
    Race Analysis
    P#
    Horse
    Morn
    Line
    Accept
    Odds

    Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * JESS CURLIN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CHRIS S FAVORITE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. KATES FIRST DOWN: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FAVORITE MONGOOS E: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
    2
    JESS CURLIN
    4/1
    5/1
    5
    CHRIS S FAVORITE
    2/1
    6/1
    4
    KATES FIRST DOWN
    7/2
    7/1
    6
    FAVORITE MONGOOSE
    3/1
    8/1

    P#
    Horse (In Running Style Order)
    Post
    Morn
    Line
    Running Style
    Good
    Class
    Good
    Speed
    Early Figure
    Finish Figure
    Platinum
    Figure
    1
    CHANCER
    1
    12/1
    Slow/Trouble-prone
    74
    68
    7.4
    0.0
    0.0
    2
    JESS CURLIN
    2
    4/1
    Slow
    93
    88
    7.8
    0.0
    0.0
    3
    LOOKE AT ME
    3
    5/1
    Average/Trouble-prone
    84
    78
    4.9
    0.0
    0.0
    4
    KATES FIRST DOWN
    4
    7/2
    Average
    89
    78
    3.6
    0.0
    0.0
    5
    CHRIS S FAVORITE
    5
    2/1
    Average
    87
    85
    4.3
    0.0
    0.0
    6
    FAVORITE MONGOOSE
    6
    3/1
    Average
    85
    79
    6.0
    0.0
    0.0
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 358322

      #17
      Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts



      Gulfstream Park - Race #11 - Post: 5:24pm - Optional Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $46,000 Class Rating: 106

      Rating:

      #14 SOUPER SCAT DADDY (ML=6/1)
      #4 SUPREME AURA (ML=6/1)
      #13 BASHA (ML=8/1)


      SOUPER SCAT DADDY - In this race here, this thoroughbred has clearly shown signs that he likes the turf. His speed figures are the highest in the field for this distance and surface. This horse is a gem of consistency, almost always in the money. Came home fast last out at Gulfstream Park. That type of move bodes well for his chances in this race. SUPREME AURA - This jock and trainer have a lucrative return on investment when they join forces. I like this gelding. Has the uppermost earnings per start in today's contest. BASHA - A campaigner coming back this quickly after a strong effort is a good signal. In the last race, ran the last quarter in less than 25 ticks. What that tells me is he can close well, and should be right there at the finish this time.

      Vulnerable Contenders: #10 BATTLE OF BLENHEIM (ML=9/5), #11 HONEY WON'T (ML=9/2), #12 HIEROGLYPHICS (ML=8/1),

      BATTLE OF BLENHEIM - Difficult to put your money on this speedy one. Too much early speed in the clash. HONEY WON'T - In all probability won't make much of an impact this time. HIEROGLYPHICS - Hard to put your dough on this early speedster. Too much early speed in the event.



      STRAIGHT WAGERS: Bet on #14 SOUPER SCAT DADDY to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds
      EXACTA WAGERS: Box [4,13,14]

      TRIFECTA WAGERS:
      Box [4,13,14] Total Cost: $6
      SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Skip

      SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:
      None
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      Comment

      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 358322

        #18
        Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

        Always check program numbers.
        Odds shown are morning line odds.




        Race 8 - Allowance - 110y on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 91

        QUARTER HORSE 110Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

        RECOMMENDED CHOICES
        # 4 SPIRIT FOOSE 9/5
        # 2 FED X CARTEL 4/1
        # 1 UNIQUE WAYS 9/2
        I think about SPIRIT FOOSE here. Has garnered reliable Equibase speed figs in short races in the past. As of late Lozano has been hot which may give the edge to this gelding. His 81 average has this gelding with among the top Equibase speed figs here. FED X CARTEL - Had one of the best Equibase Speed Figures of this group in her last competition. Have to look at solely on class, with some of the top class figs of this group. UNIQUE WAYS - Has raced admirably in short races. With Cervantes controlling the reins on her, this filly will probably be able to break out sharply in here.
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        Comment

        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 358322

          #19
          Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Oaklawn Park



          04/11/20, OP, Race 9, 4.43 CT
          04/11/20,OP,9,1M [Dirt] 1:34:02 STAKES. Oaklawn Mile Stakes. Purse $150,000. FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. No nomination fee. $1,000 to pass the entry box and $1,500 additional to start. Supplementary nominations may be made by the closing time of entries at a fee of $3,000 which qualifies to start with $150,000 Guaranteed of which 60% to the Owner of the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 5% to fourth, 3% to fifth and 2% to be divided equally between remaining starters. WEIGHTS: 122 lbs. Non-winners of $60,000 in 2019-2020, allowed 3 lbs.; $50,000 in 2020, allowed 5 lbs.; $40,000 since February 11, 2020 allowed 7 lbs. (Maiden and Claiming races not considered in allowances). In Allowance Stakes starting preference will be given to horses that have accumulated the highest earnings. Starters to be named through the entry box by the usual time of closing. The Owner of the winner to receive a trophy. Nominations closed Thursday, April 2, 2020 with 49 nominees.
          . . . .
          Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
          After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
          100.00 1 Slick Silver 30-1 Emigh C A Vanden Berg Brittany A JTFC 33.17 1.14/$1
          095.57 14 Improbable 7/2 Van Dyke D Baffert Bob 47.83 1.61/$1
          095.55 3 Tom's d'Etat 3-1 Rosario J Stall. Jr. Albert M. E 47.83 1.61/$1
          094.42 4 Pioneer Spirit 6-1 Cohen D Diodoro Robertino 33.17 1.14/$1
          094.23 6 M G Warrior 15-1 Talamo J Cox Brad H. 33.17 1.14/$1
          094.15 2 Mr. Money 4-1 Saez G Calhoun W. Bret 47.83 1.61/$1
          093.50 7 Snapper Sinclair 10-1 Geroux F Asmussen Steven M. 47.83 1.61/$1
          092.19 8 Bankit 15-1 Santana. Jr. R Asmussen Steven M. 47.83 1.61/$1
          091.65 12 Kershaw 20-1 De La Cruz F D'Amato Philip W 37.76 1.31/$1
          091.23 5 Boldor 20-1 Baze T Asmussen Steven M. 39.84 1.27/$1
          091.21 10 Long Range Toddy 10-1 Hernandez. Jr. B J Stewart Dallas 47.83 1.61/$1
          090.79 13 Fight On 20-1 Vazquez R A O'Neill Doug F. 33.33 1.26/$1
          090.68 9 Home Run Trick 30-1 De La Cruz W Martin William N. L 33.17 1.14/$1
          089.50 11 Lord Guinness 30-1 Fuentes R Yakteen Tim 47.83 1.61/$1
          * Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 34.63, ROI 1.23/$1
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          Comment

          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 358322

            #20
            Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts



            Tampa Bay Downs - Race #2 - Post: 12:45pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.2 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,000 Class Rating: 57

            Rating:

            #8 MALICED (ML=9/5)
            #3 DARESCA (ML=3/1)


            MALICED - Hamm enters this horse in a spot where she should fit well based on her last 2 speed ratings. I really like that recent outing on March 28th at Tampa Bay Downs where she ran second. This horse wins a lot of cash per start. Number one in this affair. The 61 latest race speed figure looks good in black and white. DARESCA - Expect this filly to be back of the pack early and come closing strongly. Have to forget about that last race on the turf. This filly should do better hitting the main track in this field.

            Vulnerable Contenders: #6 I AM A. LURING (ML=9/2), #7 MIGHTY FROSTY (ML=6/1), #2 GLOBALPRINCESSCOCO (ML=8/1),

            I AM A. LURING - I'd like to see better recent efforts with morning line odds of 9/2. There may be a set back today, after the bang up effort last time around the track. MIGHTY FROSTY - This horse hasn't been in the money in either of her last couple of races. GLOBALPRINCESSCOCO - Awfully difficult to wager on this less than sharp equine when she hasn't been showing any gumption of late.


            STRAIGHT WAGERS: Put your money on #8 MALICED on the nose if you can get odds of 3/2 or more
            EXACTA WAGERS: Box [3,8]

            TRIFECTA WAGERS:
            None
            SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None

            SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:
            Pass
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            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 358322

              #21
              Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

              Always check program numbers.
              Odds shown are morning line odds.




              Race 9 - SO - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $33000 Class Rating: 84

              FOR THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN OR CLAIMING OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER

              RECOMMENDED CHOICES
              # 2 GIVEMETWENTY 3/1
              # 8 DEO FORTE 12/1
              # 4 YOUNG RAYMOND 6/1
              GIVEMETWENTY looks to be a respectable contender. This colt has a strong win percent in turf sprint races. Has garnered formidable speed figures in turf sprint races in the past. DEO FORTE - He must be carefully examined given the formidable speed figures. Is a definite contender - given the 87 speed rating from his most recent race. YOUNG RAYMOND - Handler has solid win rate (16 percent) at this distance and surface. Has been running solidly lately and will most likely be on the front end early on.
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              Comment

              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 358322

                #22
                Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs



                04/11/20, TAM, Race 7, 3.15 ET
                04/11/20,TAM,7,1 1/16M [Turf] 1:39:03 CLAIMING. Purse $13,500. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over Since March 11 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $25,000 (Races where entered for $20,000 or less not considered in weight allowances) (Condition Eligibility).
                . . . .
                Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
                After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
                100.00 9 Small Hope 5-1 Wales G Sweezey J. Kent S 33.78 1.38/$1
                098.48 10 Tetsu 8-1 Quinonez A Silva Carlos H. 31.58 1.18/$1
                098.38 11 Eric the Salesman 30-1 Mejia T B Delgado Jose H. TWL 30.85 1.41/$1
                098.26 7 Burn the Boats 15-1 Suarez A McKanas Leon J. 33.78 1.38/$1
                097.43 6 Gambler's Fallacy 6-1 Spieth S DiVito James P. 31.58 1.18/$1
                097.29 3 Flight Deck 8-1 Garcia W A Wright Michael W. 31.58 1.18/$1
                096.35 8 On a Spree 3-1 Mena R Arriagada Juan FE 31.58 1.18/$1
                094.81 2 Barrel of Stout 10-1 Gallardo A A Granitz Anthony J. JC 33.78 1.38/$1
                094.80 1 Juan Pablo 6-1 Lopez J E Harty Eoin G. 31.58 1.18/$1
                093.91 5 Kitten's Boy 7/2 Centeno D Sweezey J. Kent 31.58 1.18/$1
                093.20 4 Prequalified 30-1 Frates D J Fennessy John 30.85 1.41/$1
                * Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 40.00, ROI 1.08/$1
                If Race Is Off Turf

                Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
                After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
                100.00 3 Flight Deck 8-1 Garcia W A Wright Michael W. W 33.09 1.06/$1
                099.43 8 On a Spree 3-1 Mena R Arriagada Juan FE 30.25 1.06/$1
                099.05 9 Small Hope 5-1 Wales G Sweezey J. Kent S 42.86 1.12/$1
                097.81 6 Gambler's Fallacy 6-1 Spieth S DiVito James P. 25.45 1.15/$1
                097.73 7 Burn the Boats 15-1 Suarez A McKanas Leon J. 30.00 1.05/$1
                097.43 10 Tetsu 8-1 Quinonez A Silva Carlos H. 63.64 2.45/$1
                096.83 1 Juan Pablo 6-1 Lopez J E Harty Eoin G. 30.25 1.06/$1
                096.04 5 Kitten's Boy 7/2 Centeno D Sweezey J. Kent 30.25 1.06/$1
                095.97 11 Eric the Salesman 30-1 Mejia T B Delgado Jose H. TL 63.64 2.45/$1
                095.86 2 Barrel of Stout 10-1 Gallardo A A Granitz Anthony J. JC 25.45 1.15/$1
                095.35 4 Prequalified 30-1 Frates D J Fennessy John 25.45 1.15/$1
                * Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 41.38, ROI 1.34/$1
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                Comment

                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 358322

                  #23
                  The Sharp Plays

                  Alright, Pick 3 time! I am going to go with my favorite GULFSTREAM and try...

                  R5: 1,9,3,5,2
                  R6: 7,13,11,9,3
                  R7: 6

                  $0.50 Pick 3 = $12.50
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                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 358322

                    #24
                    Indian Cowboy- 6-Unit Play. #207. Take Under 2.5 Goals (-114) Managua vs. Las Sabanas (Saturday @ 6pm est) (This is in the Nicaragua Primera Division Clausara). (If 2 Goals or Less are scored then it is a Winner).

                    We roll with the Under here as we think this is likley a low scoring game. Note, we are 3-0 with 6* Soccer Selections thus far and we have posted back to back soccer winners and look for our 4th straight 6*Winner here. As per this selection, you have to know that Managua is the top team in the league and Las Sabanas is the 9th placed team. Managua last year at one point lost to this team 4-0 and then they played them in back to back games and beat them 4-1 and 4-0 most recently. So, Las Sabanas last played Managua and got thumped 0-4 and note that this team will definitely get up to face the league leader. This is a Las Sabanas team that a while back lost to Juventus Managua 0-5 but ever since then has really shaped their defense into a much better foundation. They tied Chinandega 1-1, they tied 3rd placed Diriangen 1-1, lost to Deportivo Ocotal 0-1, beat Real Madriz in their first win in a long time 2-1 and held ART Jalapa the 6th placed team scoreless 0-0. Give this team credit for playing much better defensively and they face a Managua team that comes off a solid 2-1 win over Deportivo Ocotal but I think the difference here is that Las Sabanas is going to treat this game like their Super Bowl of sorts. They are not going to go far in the post-season and they get to face the league leader at home and they are going to show up in a big way, likley play great defense and remember their 0-4 loss last time as well. Look for this game to likely go Under the posted total today.
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                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 358322

                      #25
                      Bob Weir

                      Gulfstream Park's late Pick 4 on Saturday begins at 4:54 p.m. ET with Race 10 and ends with Race 13.

                      Nailed the late Pick 4 at Gulfstream Park the last two days, hitting for $827.65 on Thursday and $394.65 on Friday.

                      Gulfstream Park 10th (4:54 p.m. ET)
                      3 Good Credence (10-1)
                      Has competitive figures. The key difference is those figures were earned as a 2-year-old. With any growth or improvement, this filly could be a winner. The main concern is she was entered on Friday at a mile and scratched. The Friday race looked tougher on paper, but I'm a little concerned in the switch to six furlongs. Almost a single but definitely an "A" horse.

                      5 Wanderlust (9-2)
                      Is a little soft on Beyer Speed Figures, but this race could set up for an off-the-pace type. Her first race at Tampa Bay Downs fits this field style-wise, and that race has proven productive with three next-out winners. I'll forgive the last as she was on a fast pace and stopped. Change in tactics required.

                      6 Chart (4-1)
                      Great first race before trying the Grade 2 Davona Dale when she finished up the track. Was on the rail and was in tight most of that race. Stopped on turn and was not persevered with. Assuming there are no issues out of that last start, she's in the mix with a return to her debut race.

                      1 Boerne (7-2)
                      7 Lastchanceforlove (3-1)
                      Both won their debuts with wire-to-wire runs. I'm not convinced they can repeat here, but if one breaks poorly and the other clears, there is a chance. Will use both as "B" selections.

                      A: 3,5,6
                      B: 1,7

                      Gulfstream Park 11th (5:24 p.m. ET)
                      10 Battle of Blenheim (9-5)
                      Hard to find fault in this one. Won his last two races. The only concern might be the drop back to a $35,000 claiming race off the win, but I'm not as concerned right now with class drops. Logical win candidate.

                      8 Conviction Trade (15-1)
                      Has been running on the fringes against better. Gets a short layoff but has trained consistently over the last month. I think he fits here.

                      Also-eligible: 14 Souper Scat Daddy (6-1)
                      I don't love the post, but if he draws in from the also-eligible list he's a must-use. Has also been facing better. Runs hard every time.

                      4 Supreme Aura (6-1)
                      Has no real turf form to speak of, but it's an interesting move by a solid trainer (David Fawkes). Has turf breeding and is in good form. Claimed out of a win at essentially this level, given two months off and now returns on the turf with Paco Lopez up (trainer-jockey combo winning at 29 percent).

                      1 Sublime Appeal (10-1)
                      Horse has now run three straight solid turf races, finishing within two lengths in each. The interesting thing is he never gets bet (25-1, 13-1, and 68-1 in last three). His figures are competitive, and he should be forwardly placed from the rail. Could try to steal it.

                      A: 8,10,14
                      B: 1,4

                      Gulfstream Park 12th (5:54 p.m. ET)
                      2 J P's Delight (5-2)
                      Will need to be the speed of the speed in here being the closest to the rail of the speed horses. If he can hold his position, he should have more stamina as he's been racing in seven-furlong races and turns back to six furlongs. Will need to run every step of the way.

                      7 Heiressall (6-1)
                      Overmatched in her last start, losing by 11 lengths, but now gets back jockey Paco Lopez. I expect a pressing trip. She will likely have first run if the speed stops.

                      1 Princess Causeway (8-1)
                      I'm not convinced this filly can get up in time at six furlongs, but there is a chance of a total pace meltdown. She could be the one flying late.

                      9 Pacific Gale (7-2)
                      Raced at the Grade 2 and 3 levels all of last year. She did not win but was competitive for the most part. I'm not trusting her off the layoff, but she is definitely capable if she returns running.

                      A: 2,7
                      B: 1,9

                      Gulfstream Park 13th (6:25 p.m. ET)
                      9 Twenty Four Seven (3-1)
                      Claimed out of his last race by trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., whose runners are winning at 40 percent first off the claim. Has back class and has been given some time off after a hard-fought win. Can repeat.

                      4 Flyoff (4-1)
                      Finished second to Twenty Four Seven in his comeback race two starts back. Tried harder in his last race and ran a similar figure. Could be ready for his best performance making his third start off the layoff.

                      1 The Queens Jules (20-1)
                      Has the rail and speed. Comes off a win on the dirt and moves back to turf. His turf race three starts ago could win this. If he's let go early, he could spring a surprise.

                      7 Bondurant (8-1)
                      Banging around at this level for trainer Mike Maker. Has moved to the lead in his last two starts but has been unable to finish them off. A properly timed ride might get him there.

                      3 King of Spades (9-2)
                      Probably the best closer in the race. But he has not been able to get it done at Gulfstream Park (0-for-10). He will be running late but is more likely to finish underneath.

                      A: 1,4,7,9
                      B: 3

                      Wagers
                      All-A ticket
                      $0.50 Pick 4: 3,5,6 with 8,10,14 with 2,7 with 1,4,7,9 ($36)

                      Three-A, one-B tickets
                      $0.50 Pick 4: 1,7 with 8,10,14 with 2,7 with 1,4,7,9 ($24)
                      $0.50 Pick 4: 3,5,6 with 1,4 with 2,7 with 1,4,7,9 ($24)
                      $0.50 Pick 4: 3,5,6 with 8,10,14 with 1,9 with 1,4,7,9 ($36)
                      $0.50 Pick 4: 3,5,6 with 8,10,14 with 2,7 with 3 ($9)

                      Total: $129
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                      Comment

                      • Can'tPickAWinner
                        Super Moderator
                        • Nov 2012
                        • 358322

                        #26
                        Jonathon Kinchen

                        Race 9 at Oaklawn Park on Saturday goes to post at 5:43 p.m. ET and offers a potentially lucrative Pick 3 that ends with Race 11.

                        Oaklawn Park 9th
                        2 Mr. Money (4-1)
                        Was arguably the best 3-year-old in the country at a few points last year before Maximum Security locked down the No. 1 spot. This horse's 3-year-old stablemate By My Standards came back to the races as a 4-year-old at the Fair Grounds and ran huge. I expect Mr. Money to do the same.

                        3 Tom's d'Etat (3-1)
                        This guy ran some big races last year, and he loves running fresh; he is 7-for-10 off a layoff. I expect to see his best, but I am not sure if it will be good enough to beat the A races from Mr. Money and Improbable.

                        14 Improbable (7-2)
                        The 2019 Kentucky Derby favorite, Improbable was his biggest enemy last year. Gate issues will need to be resolved, but this horse has showed some serious talent. I don't see Bob Baffert putting him on the plane to Arkansas for no reason.

                        A: 2,3,14
                        B: None

                        Oaklawn Park 10th
                        4 What a Country (8-1)
                        Was 18-1 against runaway winner Blackberry Wine. Was glued to the rail in that race, and that still might have been a good enough performance in a normal maiden that didn't contain Blackberry Wine. Should improve in second start.

                        8 Urbanite (10-1)
                        Was 6-1 on debut against Risen Star winner Mr. Monomoy and was far out of it and wide the entire race. I would expect him to run better in this spot. Square price.

                        10 Dean Martini (7-2)
                        Had a brutal trip into the first turn in his first start off the layoff and still almost got the job done. I expect a step forward on Saturday. Will need to work out a trip from the outside.

                        A: 4,8,10
                        B: None

                        Oaklawn Park 11th
                        12 Farmington Road (6-1)
                        I liked him in the Risen Star, and he had a horrible trip closing into a slow pace. I love him in this spot. Jockey Martin Garcia will need to put him in the race, and that shouldn't be too hard with the outside draw and the blinkers. The pick.

                        3 Mr. Big News (30-1)
                        His last race in the Risen Star was much better than it looked. He closed into soft pace and chased Modernist, who returned to run well in the Louisiana Derby. Big longshot.

                        4 Thousand Words (5-2)
                        I once made the prediction that this horse was guaranteed to hit the board in the Kentucky Derby. He is a grindy type who will run as far as they will write races. Trainer Bob Baffert is the best dirt trainer in the world. Thousand Words will run his race but will need a clean trip to win.

                        A: 12
                        B: 3,4

                        Wagering strategy
                        I usually play the late Pick 4, but I can make a case for every horse in Race 12, the last leg of the Pick 4. And I think it is lazy and a bad habit to play the Pick 4 if you don't have an opinion in either the first or last race of the sequence. So instead I will play the Pick 3, which allows me to invest more in each ticket (a $10 all-A ticket in the Pick 3 versus, say, a $2 all-A ticket in the Pick 4).

                        Wagers
                        All-A ticket
                        $10 Pick 3: 2,3,14 with 4,8,10 with 12 ($90)

                        Two-A, one-B ticket
                        $2 Pick 3: 2,3,14 with 4,8,10 with 3,4 ($36)

                        Total wager: $126
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                        • Can'tPickAWinner
                          Super Moderator
                          • Nov 2012
                          • 358322

                          #27
                          Paul Leiner

                          Oaklawn Stakes 4/11

                          Other than Nifty coming in 3rd we missed the mark yesterday. Today I have 4 races for you including the Oaklawn Stakes with some very good horses. Should get to watch some of the races on FS1 and NBC Sports. Enjoy.

                          Gulfstream Race 1
                          #6 Put It On Detti $10 w/p/s
                          $2 exacta box 6-7-11

                          Gulfstream Race 10
                          #6 Chart $10 w/p/s

                          Oaklawn Race 9
                          #2 Mr Money $10 w/p/s
                          $2 exacta box 2-3-4

                          Oaklawn Stakes Race 11
                          #4 Thousand Words $10 w/p/s
                          $2 exacta box 4-1-12
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                          • GetTheseDimes
                            Senior Member
                            • Jan 2018
                            • 312

                            #28
                            Esparza (VSI) 4* Juventus Managua (8:00 Nicaragua) -1 (line has moved up to -1.5). Best of luck as always!

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