Service Plays Saturday 4/18/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #2 - Post: 12:58pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $11,500 Class Rating: 67

Rating:

#1 DRILL BIT (ML=7/2)
#3 TRAP (ML=12/1)


DRILL BIT - Really have to believe this horse is going to be close at the wire. TRAP - This colt is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Machado. Just look at his most recent speed fig, 67. That one fits well in this field. Horse has improved at least two speed figure points in last 2 races. I look for that positive trend to continue in this event. I like a runner that makes a good late run in a sprint race and comes back in a route.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 FULL MOON RISING (ML=4/1), #8 CAPTAINONTHEROCKS (ML=9/2), #6 TRINNI ALEX (ML=5/1),

FULL MOON RISING - Hasn't been close at all of late. CAPTAINONTHEROCKS - Didn't land in the top three on Mar 13th at Fair Grounds. Followed it up with another less than stellar try. Doubtful that the fig he recorded on April 11th will be enough in this event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#1 DRILL BIT is the play if we get odds of 3/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park

04/18/20, GP, Race 9, 4.53 ET
04/18/20,GP,9,1M [Turf] 1:31:02 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $47,000 (includes up to $7,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $62,500. Weight, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over On The Turf Since March 18 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $62,500 (Races Where Entered For $50,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances) (Condition Eligibility). (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on themain track at One Mile) (Rail at 48 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.00	7	Mintd (IRE)	10-1	Gaffalione T	Walsh Brendan P.	JSFC	36.23	1.83/$1
097.71	5	Always Shopping	4-1	Saez L	Pletcher Todd A.	E	36.23	1.83/$1
095.45	14	Bramble Queen	8-1	Zayas E J	Dini Michael		36.23	1.83/$1
094.21	9	Art of Almost	7/2	Jaramillo E	Attfield Roger L.		25.98	1.15/$1
093.83	8	Rideforthecause	5-1	Davis D	Cox Gail		25.98	1.15/$1
093.47	4	Dark Artist	6-1	Berrios H I	Cibelli Jane	T	36.23	1.83/$1
093.36	3	Zarina	10-1	Reyes L	Stewart Chad J.		25.98	1.15/$1
092.84	1	High Road	12-1	Panici L	Arnold. II George R.		25.98	1.15/$1
092.29	10	Picara	15-1	Maragh R	Delgado Jorge	WL	36.23	1.83/$1
091.72	2	Sean's Idea	20-1	Torres C A	Molina Mark S.		25.98	1.15/$1
091.43	11	Starship Nala	30-1	Sanchez J	Dwoskin Steven		36.23	1.83/$1
091.12	12	Bienville Street	8-1	Bravo J	Gambolati Cam M.		25.98	1.15/$1
090.33	13	Solar Kitten	10-1	Landeros C	Wilkes Ian R.		25.98	1.15/$1
085.63	6	Goodbye Brockley	30-1	Olsson F	Serpe Philip M.		25.98	1.15/$1

* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 18.60, ROI 0.65/$1
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.00	7	Mintd (IRE)	10-1	Gaffalione T	Walsh Brendan P.	SFWC	28.61	1.22/$1
098.92	5	Always Shopping	4-1	Saez L	Pletcher Todd A.	JTE	28.61	1.22/$1
096.39	8	Rideforthecause	5-1	Davis D	Cox Gail		28.61	1.22/$1
096.14	4	Dark Artist	6-1	Berrios H I	Cibelli Jane		28.61	1.22/$1
095.27	14	Bramble Queen	8-1	Zayas E J	Dini Michael		28.61	1.22/$1
095.10	9	Art of Almost	7/2	Jaramillo E	Attfield Roger L.		37.59	1.45/$1
093.79	12	Bienville Street	8-1	Bravo J	Gambolati Cam M.		28.61	1.22/$1
092.95	3	Zarina	10-1	Reyes L	Stewart Chad J.		28.61	1.22/$1
092.69	13	Solar Kitten	10-1	Landeros C	Wilkes Ian R.		28.61	1.22/$1
092.38	1	High Road	12-1	Panici L	Arnold. II George R.		28.61	1.22/$1
091.97	11	Starship Nala	30-1	Sanchez J	Dwoskin Steven		28.61	1.22/$1
091.89	2	Sean's Idea	20-1	Torres C A	Molina Mark S.		28.61	1.22/$1
091.31	10	Picara	15-1	Maragh R	Delgado Jorge	L	28.61	1.22/$1
088.00	6	Goodbye Brockley	30-1	Olsson F	Serpe Philip M.		28.61	1.22/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 34.64, ROI 1.26/$1

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

esports-betting-tips


Evil Geniuses - Business Associates : 1 @ 1.36 (DOTA 2 BTS Pro Series (USA))
Flamengo - Prodigy : 1 @ 1.45 (LEAGUE OF LEGENDS:Circuito Brasileiro de League of Legends)


Total Odds : 1.97 @ bet365

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday Stats

Today's trends were hand-selected by handicappers to give you a statistical look at key horses and key races.

Gulfstream Park
Race Notes
Races 1,2 and 12 Situational Stat – Maiden claiming races at Gulfstream have been longshot havens in the month on April. Through April 16, the 24 such races had produced 8 winners at 10-1 or more odds with an average winner during that span also at 10-1. Turf and dirt maiden claimers split those longshot winners at 4 apiece. Favorites hit 25% (6-for-24) during that time.

Gulfstream Park
Race Notes
Race 8 #4 Hard Belle (12-1 ML) – The Mike Tomlinson barn has turned it on during April with 3 winners from 7 starters, this after going 2-for-32 locally in January, February and March. The winning April returns netted $7, $27 and $75 along the way. All 3 winners exited losses at Gulfstream, including seventh and eighth-place previous finishes by his longshot scores.

Oaklawn Park
Race Notes
Race 8 #11 Nitrous (20-1 ML) – Jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. has a wild 7: 5-0-1 record in Oaklawn’s Count Fleet Stakes since 2013. Three of those wins came for trainer Steve Asmussen, including a 7-1 upset in the 2014 edition (Lemon Drop Dream).

Oaklawn Park
Race Notes
Race 10 Situational Stat – In the last 7 editions of the Apple Blossom, horses shipping into Oaklawn off an out-of-town prep race are a sharp 14: 4-2-3 (29% wins, 64% in trifecta). Locally prepped runners are 30: 3-5-4 during that span (10% wins, 40% in trifecta). Shippers boast a $1.83 ROI for every $1 bet.

Tampa Bay Downs
Race Notes
Races 3,6and 8 #4 Perfetto (12-1 ML), #2 Wowee (6-1 ML), #4 GQ Girl (10-1 ML) – Notable that red-hot jockey Samy Camacho rides all 3 of these runners on switches from previous pilots. Camacho has dominated Tampa since the start of March, particularly on dirt (where all 3 of these runners compete). He’s won 30% on dirt from 44 mounts and bankrolled an astounding $2.77 ROI for every $1 bet during that span.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

Apple Blossom Picks 4/18

Sat Apr 18, 2020 7:44 am
Big day for us yesterday as Poseidon's Passion wins and pays $26.60 and we hit the 3-5 exacta and that paid $91.60. Noon Time Gem was scratched and we had no action on Race 9 at Gulftsream. Today we have the Apple Blossom Stakes at Oaklawn. Here's two from Oaklawn and two from Gulfstream.

Gulfstream Race 1
#7 Raspberry Ballet $5 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 7-1-11

Gulfstream Race 11
#9 Kittens Covergirl $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 9-7-2

Oaklawn Race 10
#12 Go Google Yourself $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 12-11-14

Oaklawn Race 11
#5 Degrom $10 w/p/s

[Benten]

Anyone have IC soccer play tonight?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Oaklawn Park Wagering Strategies - 4/18/20

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April 18, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Oaklawn Park
Saturday, April 18, 2020
*

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
*
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
*
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.


RACE 1: Post 12:35 CT. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Wenyen; 5-My Legacy

Forecast: Maiden $12,500 older sprinters meet in the opener, a race that must be treated with caution. We’ll try to survive and advance using just two. Wenyen drops again in his third career start, removes blinkers, and earned a speed figure in his debut that is good enough to beat this field. This jockey-trainer combo is solid, so at 5-1 on the morning line the son of Flashback seems as good as any. My Legacy, second off a layoff and now in the G. Compton barn (had been a S. Asmussen), will have a strong look if he can produce a forward move after a speed/fade effort vs. tougher in his first off 10-month layoff. His numbers from last summer chart very well with these, so we’ll consider him a “must use” at 6-1 on the morning line.
*
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RACE 2: Post 1:06 CT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Delp; 9-Metropol

Forecast: Metropol was considered a decent prospect after breaking his maiden at first asking for B. Baffert back in the fall of 2018. The son of Shackleford now finds himself competing in a restricted (nw-2) $20,000 claimer, but after a couple of sprint preps over sloppy tracks the B. Cox-trained colt stretches out for the first time, switches to the barn’s “go-to” rider and should find himself in a good pace-stalking/prompting position. Let’s hope that this sharp drop in class will help restore his confidence. Delp, claimed in his last pair and now in the T. Amoss barn (solid stats with first-off-the-claim plays), drops from $30,000 to $20,000, switches from turf to dirt, and picks up J. Talamo. His numbers in California chart well against this group, so we’re expecting the son of Include to return to his best form. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with a slight preference on top to Metropol.
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RACE 3: Post 1:37 CT. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Daigle; 9-Too Pretty

Forecast: Five of these exit the same race, the most intriguing of which is Daigle, the fourth place finisher in an Arkansas-bred maiden sprint for fillies and mares. She stayed on reasonably well after a pressing/stalking trip and we’re expecting a big effort thanks to the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out angle and a pedigree that should allow her to handle today’s mile trip. Too Pretty, in the frame in her last pair with improving speed figures, was four lengths clear of the rest in a similar two-turner last month is the likely choice and one to beat. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post 2:08 CT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Elite Song; 9-Lady Gusto; 10-Punish

Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in the fourth race, a restricted (nw-2) $20,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. Punish picks up J. Rosario, is comfortably drawn outside, and should have every chance from a pace-pressing position. Second in her last pair, most recently with a career-top speed figure, the daughter of Cairo Prince exits a productive race and can be expected to produce another forward move. There may be a bit of value here if she leaves at or near her morning line of 9/2. Elite Song might be the quickest in the field, and from her rail draw she has only one way to go, on the front end for as far as she can take them. She may stick better today on a fast track after faltering over muddy surfaces in her last pair. Lady Gusto, overmatched in a pair of races since being taken for $25,000, drops below her claim level and should be a factor from off the pace. However, with just one win to go along with eight seconds and thirds, the daughter of J P’s Gusto may lack a winning punch, so we’ll use her as a back-up or a saver, but not much more than that.
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RACE 5: Post 2:39 CT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Skyvalue; 12-Minji

Forecast: Skyvalue, a solid third in her debut in a maiden $40,000 affair over a sloppy track here last month, has every right to step forward and graduate. With J. Rosario taking the call, the daughter of Sky Kingdom seems like the logical top pick in a modest race for the level. Minji also makes her second career start, raising from the maiden $25,000 ranks while moving from the inside to the outside. The barn has good stats with second-time starters, so a forward move is likely. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two with the edge on top to Skyvalue.
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RACE 6: Post 3:10 CT. Grade: C
Use: 3-Front Door; 4-Dangerfield; 12-Altito

Forecast: We’re not crazy about the extreme outside draw but if he can negotiate a decent trip the tough old pro Altito can win this $12,500 claiming middle distance affair. The T. Amoss-trained gelding drops to a realistic level, retains J. Talamo, and has won 10 races during his career, though he’s only 1-for-11 over the Oaklawn Park main track. His recent numbers are solid, and against this group he might be able to produce the last run. Dangerfield exits a pair of tougher starter allowance events and a repeat of his runner-up effort over this track and distance two races back puts him in the hunt. T. Baze takes over and should have this J. Hollendorfer-trained gelding within striking range throughout. Front Door was taken for $25,000 two runs back and today surfaces for half that amount, but R. Diodoro barn plays the claiming game aggressively so the class drop isn’t necessarily a negative move. The Point of Entry gelding always has been a one-paced type but at this level he should at least get a piece of it. These are the three we’ll be including in our rolling exotics; feel free to go deeper if you can afford to.
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RACE 7: Post 3:42 CT. Grade: B+
Single: 1-Wild Popit

Forecast: Wild Popit is a late-developing 5-year-old with plenty of ability and is finally getting around to showing it. After crossing the wire first in his last two starts (but disqualified two runs back), the R. Morse-trained horse stretches out for the first time and gives every indication that he’ll improve as the distances increase. In his recent maiden win, the son of Tapit was shuffled back early and given a very difficult task, but suddenly took hold behind horses entering the lane, angled out, and accelerated impressively to win as much best. With a clean break today he’ll draft into an ideal ground-saving, second flight trip and then be able to quicken when called upon. At 4-1 on the morning line he’s a strong win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post 4:14 CT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Bobby’s Wicked One; 7-Hidden Scroll; 9-Whitmore

Forecast: Hidden Scroll earned a giant speed figure in his recent comeback at Gulfstream Park, winning under wraps like the top prospect he was supposed to be a year ago last winter. Clearly, the son of Hard Spun is most comfortable as a sprinter, and today we’ll find out just how much quality he has. The W. Mott-trained colt probably won’t be quick enough to make the lead but he should be within striking range throughout and have his chance from the quarter pole home. Whitmore practically owns Oaklawn Park; he’s an eight-time winner here and returned to top form when blowing past his outclassed foes in a listed stakes last month. A prototype late-running sprinter, the son of Pleasantly Perfect should have more than enough pace to compliment his style, and with good racing luck will be hard to contain in the final furlong. Bobby’s Wicked One may be the speed of the speed and has never been sharper, most recently winning a pair of listed sprint stakes at Fair Grounds with career-top speed figures. The son of Speightstown was good enough to finish second to Mitole in The Churchill Downs S.-G1 last year so this group won’t outclass him.
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RACE 9: Post 4:45 CT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Shanghai Tariff; 6-Break Even

Forecast: We’re not really sure what happened to Break Even in her recent comeback – she was 4/5 and flashed speed for a half before caving in – but the talented filly has trained very well since so we’re willing to give the daughter of Country Day another chance against a group she can beat with anything close to her best effort. She switches to J. Rosario for a barn that has a terrific 27% strike rate with second-off-layoff runners, so at the 3-1 on the morning line she gets top billing. Shanghai Tariff, a genuine and consistent sprinting mare, isn’t anywhere near as fast on speed figures as Break Even but she’s been first or second in eight of 10 career starts over the Oaklawn Park main track and can be tough on the lead or from a stalking position. She’ll need to leave cleanly from the rail but should enjoy a nice ground-saving trip if she does. Strong preference on top goes to Break Even but we’ll have a few tickets backing her up with Shanghai Tariff.
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RACE 10: Post 5:16 CT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Ollie’s Candy; 11-Serengeti Empress; 14-Ce Ce

Forecast: This year’s edition of the Apple Blossom Handicap is a legitimate Grade-1 event – almost Breeders’ Cup Distaff quality – and with 14 entrants a good trip for any of the major contenders isn’t guaranteed. Ollie’s Candy is 12-1 on the morning line – we have to think she’s better than that – and from the rail the J. Sadler-trained mare is likely to enjoy an ideal second flight, ground saving journey. Relatively lightly-raced at age five with four wins from only 11 career starts, three of which were graded stakes, the daughter of Candy Ride may have been a tad short when third behind Ce Ce in the Beholder Mile-G1 last month but has trained well since and seems set to show her best stuff. She’s also dropping five pounds off that race and today lands J. Rosario, whose record riding for this barn is spectacular. Ce Ce has been superb in two comeback races and her thoroughly dominating win in the Beholder Mile was no fluke. The main concern, of course, is the 14-hole and the possibility that she winds up straddling Central Ave. approaching the clubhouse turn, but if she can manage to get over and save a reasonable amount of ground the daughter of Elusive Quality will make her presence felt. Serengeti Empress can be brilliant when she’s on her game, something less than that when she’s not, but the T. Amoss-trained daughter of Alternation looked terrific winning the Azeri S.-G2 (albeit over a sloppy track) and is certain to employ front running tactics again. If she manages to clear the field before the clubhouse turn – and Come Dancing may have something to say about that – she may never look back. These are the three we’ll be using in a highly contentious event, but if you feel the need to include a few more, go right ahead.
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RACE 11: Post 5:47 CT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Timeline; 2-Kurilov; 10-Matrooh

Forecast: The finale is another challenging affair offering several possibilities. The 10-year-old pro Matrooch crushed a similar $50,000 claiming field two races back but then was narrowly beaten at 40 cents on the dollar in a starter’s allowance event over a sloppy track he was supposed to like. Certainly capable of making amends, the R. Diodoro-trained gelding is reunited with “win rider” D. Cohen and should fold into a good pace-stalking trip outside and then have his chance to kick on with it when it counts. Kurilov, a nine-time career winner but a tad flat when a distant fourth in a tougher optional claimer 15 days ago, fits much better at this level and could easily snap back to top form. The Chilean-bred veteran is nicely drawn inside and should settle in the second flight and enjoy a ground-saving trip. Timeline once was good enough but has been sparingly raced the past couple of years and is seeking his first win since the summer of 2018. This is his first time for a tag and his second off a layoff so the son of Hard Spun has every right to produce a forward move.
*

[Dave]

Anyone have IC soccer play tonight?

I was thinking of getting it. 7* today?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Gulfstream Park Wagering Strategies - 4/18/20

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April 18, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Gulfstream Park
Saturday, April 18, 2020
*

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
*
*
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
*
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
*

RACE 1: Post 12:45 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Truly; 11-Matcha

Forecast: Seven-race maiden Truly finds her best chance yet to earn her diploma in the Saturday opener, a maiden $20,000 claiming turf miler for fillies and mares. A repeat of her runner-up effort two runs back (behind next-out winner Kittenbythesea while almost five lengths clear of the rest) should be more than good enough, and from the favorable rail the daughter of Will Take Charge is guaranteed an ideal ground-saving, second flight trip. With the switch to E. Zayas, the M. Lerman-trained four-year-old will offer value at or near her morning line of 4-1. Rolling exotic players should also consider Matcha, competitive on speed figures, adding blinkers, and switching to T. Gaffalione. She has a healthy pattern and could be a threat if she can secure a bit of cover from her outside draw.
*
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RACE 2: Post 1:15 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Mystic Comin Home; 10-Markistan

Forecast: This bottom-rung $12,500 maiden claiming abbreviated sprint for fillies and mares appears to have two main players, and both should be used in rolling exotic play. Mystic Comin Home is a seven-race maiden but actually crossed the wire first three runs back, only to be disqualified for causing early interference. She then hit the board in her next two starts when facing tougher opposition, in each case earning speed figures that are better than par for today’s event. The daughter of First Samurai makes a pivotal jockey switch to L. Saez and clearly looks the best of the pace types. Markistan, in the frame in her last four starts, most recently picked up the pieces to be second in the same race Mystic Comin Home exits. The J. Delgado-trained filly projects to fold into a good stalking position and then have dead aim from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 3: Post 1:45 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Cat’s Astray; 6-Palace Two Step

Forecast: Cat’s Astray has been stuck on seconds lately but her speed figures continue to rise, so with her best effort today the veteran mare should be capable of stalking and then pouncing when the pressure is turned on. However, at 9/5 on the morning line, she won’t be offering much in the way of wagering value. Palace Two Step, freshened since early February, missed by a neck as the favorite when facing $30,000 foes in her last start and today shows up for $16,000 for an ice-cold barn, not exactly a healthy pattern. She’s quicker than ‘Astray but not as fast on pure numbers. You may want to save with her on a ticket or two.
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RACE 4: Post 2:15 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Chase Runner; 2-Krachenwagen

Forecast: The fourth race, a main track miler for $12,500 sellers, drew a small field of six, with the main contention drawn inside. Chase Runner was second to Krachenwagen when they met over this track and distance at this level last month but may be able to turn the tables due to a projected pace scenario that should give him every chance to control the race on the front end from the rail. There’s also a three-pound weight shift in his favor, so we’ll give the son of Big Brown the edge on top. Krachenwagen just won under this 10-pound bug rider when rallying from off the pace but got more help up front than he can expect to receive today. Still, he’s won his last pair with strong speed figures and is likely to fire another good shot. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Chase Runner on top.
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RACE 5: Post 2:46 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Gray’s Fable; 10-Palace Kitten; 12-Coastal Defense

Forecast: Palace Kitten has improving numbers and makes his first start after being haltered for $32,000 when second over this course and distance almost two months ago. It’s encouraging that his new connections bring him back protected in straight maiden company, and a recent main track bullet workout (5f, 1:00b, fastest of four) gives every indication that the 3-year-old son of Kitten’s Joy is doing well and should continue to move forward. He also has the kind of tactical speed that should land him in an ideal stalking position, so we’ll put the W. Downing-trained colt on top and hope to get close to his generous morning line of 12-1. Gray’s Fable cut out very quick fractions in a strong one-turn main track miler last month before weakening late to finish third, and similar front-running tactics might be employed today in a race that doesn’t project to have much pace in it. In a below par field for the level, you have to use him. Coastal Defense, exiting the same race as Gray’s Fable, stretches out after two main track one-turn efforts on the dirt. With Giant’s Causeway on the bottom side of his pedigree, the son of Curlin should have no issue with the switch to grass, and if can save some ground from his extreme outside post the D. Romans-trained colt may make some noise from off the pace in the final furlong.
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RACE 6: Post 3:17 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Poppy’s Destiny; 5-Flawless Moon; 7-Big Spender

Forecast: Big Spender, a distant second in a restricted (nw-2) $30,000 claimer last month, shows up for $16,000 today, a logical class drop for a gelding still trying to find his proper level after a maiden claiming win over this track and distance almost a year ago. The D. Fawkes-trained gelding looks on paper to be the controlling speed, so if he can shake loose early he should be tough to run down. Flawless Moon, freshened since January, has a sketchy work pattern since raced so his condition is a question. On the positive side, he remains above his claim level after finishing a good second in a slightly softer conditioned claimer that produced a career-top speed figure, one that is par for this level. The Malibu Moon gelding should settle into a stalking position and then have his chance when it matters. Poppy’s Destiny, away since October of 2018, was stakes-placed in New York-bred company as a two-year-old but returns for a modest tag, not exactly a sign of confidence from low-profile connections. The work tab seems okay and he gets a break in the weights with bug boy C.A. Torres in the saddle, but at best he may be worth using as a saver.
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RACE 7: Post 3:48 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Freedom’s Flight; 6-Turn of Events; 7-Seize the Hay

Forecast: Seize the Hay was a tad green early, settled off creepy-crawler fractions, and then responded wide when asked into the lane to finish with interest in a promising runner-up performance over this course last month. The barn is a strong 23% with second-time starters, so this son of Carpe Diem should produce a forward move, especially with the shortening in trip from nine furlongs to a flat mile. The work tab is healthy, and with the switch to L. Saez we’re expecting the T. Pletcher-trained colt to be along in time. Lexatoga displayed some ability last summer when training as a 2-year-old but never made it to the post. The New York-bred colt shows up with a decent series of drills at Payson Park, including a bullet half mile workout on turf last month, so we suspect this son of Honor Code can run some. Shug’s first-timers often perform better than they work, so with E. Zayas aboard we’ll definitely include him in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 8: Post 4:21 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-South Sea; 3-Vincero; 5-Front Loaded

Forecast: Parx invader South Sea looks extremely well-meant in this mid-level claiming sprint for older horses. The son of Malibu Moon knows where the wire is with nine career wins and returns to his claim level in his first local start since joining the D. Fawkes barn. L. Saez should have him on or near the lead throughout, and on pure numbers the veteran gelding is good enough to beat this field. Vincero shortens from a one-turn mile and projects to settle in the second flight after being used up on the front end last time out. First or second in eight of 13 career outings over the local main track, the K. Breen-trained gelding picks up one of this stable’s main guys, D. Davis, and offers a bit of value at 8-1 on the morning line. Front Loaded finished a strong runner-up in a $50,000 seller here last month and today surfaces for $35,000, perhaps a tad suspicious. He’s solid on speed figures and certainly capable of winning so we’ll include him on a ticket or two even though we’re not crazy about the pattern.
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RACE 9: Post 4:53 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Dark Artist; 5-Always Shopping, Mintd

Forecast: This second-level allowance turf miler for fillies and mares has several possibilities in what is a stronger than par race for the level. Mintd, stakes-placed in Ireland as a juvenile, missed her entire 3-year old season but was a pleasing winner of her U. S, debut at Tampa Bay Downs last month, overcoming a slow start and a very wide trip without cover to be along in time while earning a representative speed figure. She’s done some excellent work in the morning since that race for B. Walsh and seems likely to produce a forward move. Lightly-raced and with some upside, the daughter of Olympic Glory is simply too big of a number at 10-1 on the morning line. Always Shopping, away since finishing sixth in the Black Eyed Susan S.-G2 almost a year ago, has looked sharp and eager in workouts at Palm Beach Downs for T. Pletcher, including a five furlong bullet drill (1:00 4/5, fastest of four) last week. A two-time stakes winner, including the Gazelle S.-G2 at nine furlongs over the Big A dirt track, she makes her first start on grass, a surface she’s certainly bred to handle (her dam, Stopshoppingmaria was a high class filly and a stakes winner on turf). The barn is a massive 30% with layoff runners and this jockey-trainer combo has been on fire of late, so while we think this daughter of Awesome Again might be better suited at a longer trip, her past class may carry her through. Dark Artist is a multiple stakes winning mare making her first start for a tag and her first since last September. Capable of winning on the front end or from the second flight, the daughter of Paynter has a prior score over the Gulfstream Park turf course and a work tab that should have her fit enough. She’s certainly can be competitive with this field off on her best day, so at 8-1 on the morning line we’ll toss her in somewhere.
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RACE 10: Post 5:25 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Blood Moon; 7-Causalistic

Forecast: Blood Moon has rising speed figures, a maiden claiming win at this trip two runs back, and a bullet recent workout to indicate he’s is primed and ready for a major effort. From the high-percentage D. Gargan barn, the son of Malibu Moon exits a hot sprint stakes, seems certain to improve at this level, and projects to be forwardly placed and have every chance to fire his best shot. Causalistic is a first-off-the-claim play for M. Maker and is being protected in a sign of confidence in this starter optional claiming one-turn miler. He was beaten a neck when taken for $40,000 over this track and distance last month as the favorite, but with the positive barn switch, a healthy recent series of workouts, a comfortable outside draw, and the switch to T. Gaffalione, the 3-year-old son of Tonalist offers value at 6-1 on the morning line. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with a slight edge on top to Blood Moon.
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RACE 11: Post 5:57 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Miss Auramet; 7-Lady Grace

Forecast: Miss Auramet seeks her third straight score and the rapidly improving daughter of Uncaptured seems well-spotted to extend the streak. Both of her wins were accomplished over this course and distance, and though she’s moving up from the first-level allowance ranks to this more contentious two-other-than optional claimer, the E. Plesa, Jr.-trained filly has the numbers to successfully handle the class hike. While she loses regular rider (and currently injured) P. Lopez, she does get a break in the weights with the switch to C.A. Torres, who’ll certainly employ gate-to-wire tactics. Lady Grace will be doing her best work from the second flight, and if Miss Auramet can’t see out the trip she’ll most likely be the one to pick her up. A winner of three of her last four outings, the M. Casse-trained daughter of Kantharos has been freshened since mid-February but has been kept on edge with healthy series of nice drills at a local off-track training center, picks up T. Gaffalione, and with good racing luck will be rolling home in the final furlong. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two, so we’ll double the race in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 12: Post 6:29 ET. Grade: C
Use: 4-Rye Street; 8-Party Dress; 10-Honest Gal

Forecast: The nightcap is an inscrutable maiden-claiming abbreviated main track sprint for bottom-rung ($12,500) fillies and mares.Honest Gal has races and back speed figures that are good enough to win, and she is dropping to her lowest level ever, so if you’re trying to find a top pick she’s probably as good as any. But the low percentage connections hardly inspire confidence. Rye Street plummets from maiden $75,000 in her second start off a claim by M. Maker and at this level the daughter of Uncle Mo almost has to be competitive by default. She’s back on dirt, shortens up, and switches to L. Saez. Party Dress was claimed for $16,000 out of her second career start last August and was stopped on. Favored in both of starts, presumably because she had shown a little bit of something in the morning, the daughter of Khozan was close up before fading to fourth in that race and then disappeared. She returns for a low profile outfit showing nothing but slow works, but she attracts E. Jaramillo, so maybe she’ll return better than she left.
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