Service Plays Monday 4/20/20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-20-2020, 06:47 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Fonner Park - Race #6

#5 Giant Gamble	Speedy sort looked good wiring for 5k last time, his third straight sharp run, and while this group is a tough one, he looks like the controlling speed here; come and catch the pick.
#7 Shepard's Pride	Heavy hitter was just 2nd by a neck at the level, and he's got the tactical speed to keep the pick in his sights early, so if that one fails, this dude will be in the right spot; the one to beat.
#3 Frankalee Fun	Uninspiring ML favorite just beat lesser in fast time but now meets a much tougher crew, and that run was eons better than anything else of late, so he may regress; tread lightly here.
Race Summary	That 6-1 ML seems like a big overlay on the pick, as not only does he enter off a big win, but he looks like a Lone F here too, so play him in all the slots at 4-1 or better, and make sure to use him in the late Pk5, as well as kicking off the late Pk4, as this is a deep race, and a win in the $10 range would add plenty of value to both sequences.

Fonner Park - Race #8

#5 Cougar Country	Invader has been facing better at WRD and DeD for Broberg, but note new trainer Womochil is 4-for-10 here, and this attack post is perfect for this one's pressing style; look out.
#1 Big Guy Ian	Fellow invader looked good winning at WRD and can settle early, so if he can work out a trip from this tricky inside draw he'll be right there in what is very speedy field; big chance.
#6 Pierpont	The chalk has won three straight and did well to draw outside the other speed, but this is a tough group for the level, and there's a lot of other gas that might fry him; not sold on.
Race Summary	The price and race flow both work for the 5, as he may get overlooked but should trip out in a race loaded with pace, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially the late Pk5/Pk4, since a win would go a long way in adding plenty of value to both sequences.

Fonner Park - Race #9

#2 Harmony Grove	The speed really woke up with a much-improved 3rd last time, should shake free early, meets an uninspiring crew, and may be finding his best form again; hoping he forgets to stop.
#5 Gone Preachin	Underachiever looks best on paper, beat the pick last time, and it's good to see Olesniak stick, but he'll be way overbet, and at 4-for-57 lifetime he's mighty tough to trust; second-best.
#7 Fantastic Warrior	Price player didn't break last time and lost his best chance, but Gonzalez is aces here, the run two-back was solid, and the price will be right if you believe; not the worst stab on the card.
Race Summary	Pace makes the race and there's really none here to keep the 2 from making the point and slowing things down, and the big run last time was a step in the right direction, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially to end the late Pk5/Pk4, since he'll fall through the wagering cracks, which means a win would blow up both sequences, even though it's not as far-fetched as the betting public might make you believe.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-20-2020, 06:47 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Will Rogers Downs - Race #3

#5 Valiant Appeal	This guy is listed as the second choice on the ML, and he'd look like a steal at something like 3/1. His last would handle this group if he can run back to it.
#7 Strong Side	Nothing wrong with this guy's recent form, and these top two choices make for a pretty top-heavy race on paper.
#2 Flatout Winner	Wasn't too far behind the top choice when they met last time out, but I'd probably want a bit better than the 4/1 ML offering to dive in here.
Race Summary	Valiant Appeal and Strong Side both seem plenty capable of winning this, but the former comes in off a bang-up effort and can win with something similar.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #7

#10 Royal Soprano	Price player has some back form that could see him spying the splits from just a bit off the pace, and though he's stepping up in a big way, the price should be right to see if this pace can come back to him.
#3 Sweet Mary M	Handled that last group at 1/5, and she's listed at 2/1 on the ML here. Despite being a win contender, she doesn't tower over these in any significant way, so it's a big pass for me at anything like the ML offering.
#8 Casino Queen	Took a massive step forward in that second start off the bench, and it earned her a best last-out BRIS speed figure. Not sure she's going to provide the 8/1 ML price, but she's a player here for sure.
Race Summary	Royal Soprano steps up in class off a nice win with softer, and she draws well to hopefully revert back to more of a finishing here. She might not actually be quick enough to hang with the early pace players, so her rider may not have much of a choice.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #9

#3 Sunday's Vision	Will get tested for class in a big way here, but she showed good pace in the debut win against cheaper, and she's bred to get this mile trip. Tries to wire 'em at a price?
#4 She's All Wolfe	Has been a non-threatening player in allowance company at Oaklawn, but those races are far, far deeper than what she's going to meet here. The one to beat.
#7 The One for Fun	Has done her best work around two turns on the main, and there's little to argue with on her maiden win last time out. No clue if she can repeat that kind of try with winners, but this is not the scariest stakes group you're going to find.
Race Summary	Sunday's Vision has the pedigree to stay this trip, and though she debuted for a $15,000 tag, she looked really good winning that and has enough speed to find a forward spot from the break.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-20-2020, 06:48 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Fonner Park - Race #4

#5 Yayasgotmoregame	Retreated vs. open company in the Baxter Stakes and switches to a high-percentage rider in Armando Martinez; biggest threat to upset favored Ye Be Judged.
#7 Ye Be Judged	Held 2nd in a N2L allowance last out after beating Yayasgotmoregame and others in a maiden race; Marissa Black stble hot lately, hitting at 19 percent.
#3 Zibby Too	Improved position in her last two races, is still a maiden, but could come on to get a piece of the exotics.
Race Summary	Yayasgotmoregame has enough speed to be in the mix early and can finish well under Martinez.

Fonner Park - Race #5

#6 American League	Tired from early efforts vs. wide-open allowance company and is set to make his 2nd off the claim by trainer Gourneau; was a winner at Sam Houston the last time he was at a mile.
#7 Ship Stalker	Goes after his 3rd straight win over this strip and stretches out to a mile; can be close throughout.
#5 Hunters Appeal	Closed well in his last three and looks ready to stretch out to a mile; ran well going a distance last summer.
Race Summary	American League has done well going long and was in a much tougher spot last time; fits well here.

Fonner Park - Race #7

#2 Spotitude	Has a good closing move and was getting to the leaders last out; gets a good pace in front of him.
#4 Songster	Performed well in better races last year and can be a big player in his 1st since September; has worked very well in preparation for his return.
#1 Where's Rufus	Ran off to an easy win last out and steps up in conditions; likely to mix it up from the outset.
Race Summary	Spotitude will get a solid pace to chase and can make up a lot of ground vs. these; could pop at a price.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-20-2020, 08:48 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers Downs

PURCHASE

Will Rogers Downs - Race 1	Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta (.50) / Superfecta (.10) First Half of Daily Double
Maiden Claiming $7,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 54 • Purse: $7,150 • Post: 1:15P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * HONG KONG HELEN: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Eq uibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
11	HONG KONG HELEN	8/5	9/5

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	GOOD EXTREME	6	20/1	Front-runner	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
2	LAKESIDE ROMANCE	2	8/1	Alternator/Front-runner	46	38	56.2	28.2	21.7
4	TELL ME BOO BOO	4	10/1	Alternator/Front-runner	47	45	53.6	30.6	22.1
8	WHATA GEM	8	12/1	Alternator/Front-runner	47	31	44.2	26.2	9.7
11	HONG KONG HELEN	11	8/5	Stalker	70	63	62.2	52.4	50.4
12	GOSPEL MARGIE	12	12/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	7.0	27.8	12.8
5	NOVA LUNA	5	20/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	0.0	29.4	19.4
10	DEJA SUE	10	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	66.4	24.6	12.1
1	NELLE BLUE	1	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	42.7	13.3	0.0
7	NANABANANA	7	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	22.7	24.4	14.4
9	LOST COUNTY	9	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	21.8	21.8	7.3

Unknown Running Style: ZIPPED (12/1) [Jockey: Medina Jose Angel - Trainer: Nolen Kenneth].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-20-2020, 08:49 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Will Rogers Downs - Race #3 - Post: 2:15pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,900 Class Rating: 94

Rating:

#2 FLATOUT WINNER (ML=4/1)
#5 VALIANT APPEAL (ML=3/1)
#7 STRONG SIDE (ML=5/2)

FLATOUT WINNER - You have to expect a better performance out of this gelding in today's event. He put in a good effort on the backstretch on March 18th only to run evenly in the stretch drive. Finished outside the top 3 last out at Sam Houston, but was within 5 lengths of the winner. Opening at 4/1 makes me think he's got a chance. VALIANT APPEAL - Ran a nice speed fig of 95 on February 14th. Followed it up with another speed fig of 96. Either effort is good enough to take this race. A repeat of that last race on March 18th where he notched a speed rating of 96 looks high enough to win in this affair. STRONG SIDE - I like that latest race on April 6th at Will Rogers Downs where he ended up second. Cabrera rode this racer for the first time last time out and comes right back today. This gelding is rounding his way back into shape. Should run well today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 DANCE DOCTOR (ML=5/1),

DANCE DOCTOR - You can't keep making alibis for a pony that just doesn't win. Don't play him.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 FLATOUT WINNER is going to be the play if we are getting 7/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[2,5,7] with [2,5,7] with [1,2,5,6,7] with [1,2,5,6,7] Total Cost: $36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-20-2020, 08:49 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fonner Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - SA - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $7100 Class Rating: 88

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000, NEBRASKA-BRED $6,500, OR LESS IN 2019 - 2020. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 AMERICAN LEAGUE 3/1
# 5 HUNTERS APPEAL 6/1
# 2 CLASSY COVE 8/1

I've got to go with AMERICAN LEAGUE. Has been running admirably and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. He looks very good in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point. Ran a sharp last race. HUNTERS APPEAL - Has run solidly when racing a dirt route race. He has been racing soundly recently while recording strong Speed Figures. CLASSY COVE - The average Equibase class rating alone makes this horse a contender. Win percentage one of the most competitive in this field.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-20-2020, 08:49 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Fonner Park - Race #1 - Post: 4:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $4,100 Class Rating: 46

Rating:

#6 OBVI (ML=4/1)

OBVI - Jock hops back on board after getting to know the beautiful animal by riding last time around the track. That's always a good sign. I like when a race sets up this way. This mare has the lone pace to bury this field. This mare is in fine form. Ended up second on Mar 31st.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 WITT NINE (ML=5/2), #3 ATSA WOESY (ML=6/1), #4 SUPER MISS B HAVEN (ML=6/1),

WITT NINE - The Brain cautions me to keep away from ponies in short distance affairs that haven't hit the board in short distance affairs of late. ATSA WOESY - No good fortune for this vulnerable equine in a short distance contest over the last couple months tells me that this filly is in a thorny spot SUPER MISS B HAVEN - Tough to play at 6/1 odds after the most recent showings. The strong exertion last time around the track may knock this mare off stride this time.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - OBVI - Has been racing regularly since a freshening. According to my data, horses hit their peak cycle in their 3rd or 4th race back. Watch out for this horse in this field.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #6 OBVI on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	6 with [3,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None

Service Plays Monday 4/20/20

Service Plays Monday 4/20/20

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