Service Plays Saturday 5/2/20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-30-2020, 09:23 AM

Eddie Olczyk’s Arkansas Derby Late Pick 4 Ticket

April 30, 2020
Before we get into handicapping any races, I would like to thank all of our first responders and essential workers. Please stay smart and safe everyone, and let’s get through this COVID-19 pandemic together. I can’t wait to see you back at the track soon!

It’s ‘Derby Week’ and even though Saturday’s main events are taking place about 570 miles southwest of Louisville, I have to commend the folks at Oaklawn Park for putting together a phenomenal 14-race card. At the very least, Saturday’s Arkansas Derby card can hopefully tide us over as we prepare for the First Saturday in September at Churchill Downs.

I chose to focus on the Arkansas Derby Late Pick 4 Saturday (Races 11 – 14), which is headlined by three stakes races – the split divisions of the G1 Arkansas Derby and the G2 Oaklawn Handicap. The Pick 4 is one of horse racing’s most popular bets and challenges us to pick the winner of four straight races, often with significant payouts for those who are successful.

Here’s my take:

Race 11 (6:29PM ET) – Arkansas Derby (G1; $500K)

Sometimes when betting the races you just have to take the FREE square on the Bingo board and avoid getting in your own way. Bob Baffert’s #1 CHARLATAN (1/1) is the best horse in this race and, perhaps, the best three-year-old in the country. He’ll need to prove that, though. But on Saturday, with the only other speed horse in the race - #6 SHOOTERS SHOOT – already an announced scratch, CHARLATAN can be expected to break running and not look back.

Race 12 (7:04PM ET) – Oaklawn Handicap (G2; $600K)

Singling Charlatan in the first leg gives me the opportunity to shoot for the moon and press the ALL button in the 14-horse Oaklawn Handicap. There are a number of very talented horses in this race, from last year’s Wood Memorial winner #9 TACITUS (9/2) to this year’s Santa Anita Handicap victor, #7 COMBATANT (4/1). Using ALL of them lets me sit back, watch and hope a longshot gets the job done. If you asked me to give my top picks in here, I’d tell you I really like #2 TROPHY CHASER (12/1) and #7 COMBATANT. Both have great stalking styles and TROPHY CHASER has really impressed me in his last two starts. This has been a different horse since stretching around two turns.

Race 13 (7:43PM ET) – Arkansas Derby (G1; $500K)

Bob Baffert is represented here by #5 NADAL (5/2), a speedy undefeated son of Blame that overcame a wicked pace duel to win the G2 Rebel Stakes in the slop at Oaklawn on March 14. He is going to face pace pressure from #11 WELLS BAYOU (7/2), #4 KING GUILLERMO (3/1) and potentially #9 TAISHAN (15/1). NADAL is the best of them so he is on my ticket along with the best two closers, #7 SILVER PROSPECTOR (10/1) and #10 FARMINGTON ROAD (12/1). I’m also going to keep KING GUILLERMO, who ran a great race in the Tampa Bay Derby and could get a dream trip from just behind NADAL and WELLS BAYOU, if they duel up front.

Race 14 (8:14PM ET) – Starter Allowance ($50K)

Oaklawn’s traditional meet-closing race is a 1 3/4-mile starter allowance and I am going to try and get through my Late Pick 4 by using three of these - #5 CARLOS SIXES (4/1), #8 GHOSTLY WHO (12/1) and #12 SHE MIGHT TELL (10/1). CARLOS SIXES looks to be the class of the field. He has won three times since February 20 and is in phenomenal form. GHOSTLY WHO figures to get a good forward trip from his post and let’s assume he didn’t like the slop in his most recent race. SHE MIGHT TELL is a consistent closer and a mare racing against the boys. I’ll trust Joe Talamo, who has been racing well at the meet, to work out a trip from an outside draw.

My Ticket

Race 11: 1
Race 12: ALL
Race 13: 4, 5, 7, 10
Race 14: 5, 8, 12

Ticket Cost: $84 for 50-cents

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-01-2020, 07:55 AM

Saturday, May 2: Oaklawn Park Middle Pick 4 Ticket (Races 6-9)

April 29, 2020 | By Jerry Shottenkirk
Just past the midway point in the Oaklawn Park Saturday is what I see as the beginning of the best of the Pick 4 opportunities on Arkansas Derby card.

While the split Arkansas Derby and Oaklawn Handicap are obvious reasons to pay attention to the action, the Pick 4 just prior (races 6-9) to those outstanding races looks like a good money-making chance. There are no stakes races in this sequence, but it’s comprised of full and well-balanced fields.

The seventh and ninth races are the best for shorter numbers on the suggested ticket. But the sixth and eighth are more of a challenge and look like they require more numbers. The approach this week is 4x2x5x3 for $60 in the 50-cent exotic play.

Race 6 (3:44PM ET) -- Maiden

Nine-furlong maiden races are generally difficult as many of the entrants have just not their best chance in races from six furlongs on up to 1 1-16th miles. A lot of times additional ground or slower fractions are is needed, and several fall under those categories. Wild Union has had nine chances to break his maiden but might be in a good spot today and is usable. He never threatened in the slop last out and generally does his best running when he gets to the lead. He’ll probably try to steal. Friar’s Road is in from Santa Anita, has had only two starts and improved with distance in his second try. There’s every reason to believe he’ll enjoy the 1 1-8th miles. Hunt the Frost already has established himself as a deep, deep closer, looks like he’ll go along with the distance and can be the one late if the front runners falter. Absolute Unit was third in his only Oaklawn start after a couple of good performances at Santa Anita. He has enough speed to overcome the outside post and is a legit threat.

Race 7 (4:16PM) – Optional Claiming ($100K)

This is the potential to look like a match race between Gamine and Speech. If Gamine is able to step up nicely off the tremendous maiden score in her debut, it might not even that. Gamine won by 6 1-4 lengths in her only start, which was at 6.5 furlongs, and the $1.8 million purchase will be a short price. Speech has more experience and was second in the G2 Santa Ysabel. If Gamine ends up not enjoying the two turns, Speech certainly has the talent to take advantage.

Race 8 (4:47PM) – Allowance ($61K)

The eighth race is a free-for-all. Fortheluvofbourbon, Fra Mauro, Caribbean, Don Vito Corleone, and Moretti all appear to have legit chances. Caribbean has stellar recent form and steps up into the allowance ranks. He’s certainly taken a liking to Oaklawn after beginning his career in southern California. After a maiden win by 11 lengths, he lost to next-time winner Parade Field by a head and then won N2L claiming race by 9 1-4. The competition is better in this one, but he’s to be taken seriously. Don Vito Corleone was overlooked in his debut and won by 1 1-4 lengths going 1 1-16th mile. Distance winners first time out of the box aren’t an everyday occurrence. He was 25-1 that day; won’t be that today. Fortheluvofbourbon, Fra Mauro and Moretti are all in decent form, well connected and worthy of inclusion on the ticket.

Race 9 (5:19PM) – Optional Claiming ($40K)

The finale in this sequence looks like it comes down to the trio of Popular Kid, Fearless, and Rotation. Popular Kid is the horse for the course, and despite making big steps up the class ladder in his last three shouldn’t cause doubt. He was an easy winner in his first two at Oaklawn. Fearless has only three starts, won his first two and had an excuse for his sixth-place finish in the G2 New Orleans Classic. He lost his best chance when bumped at the sixteenth-pole and ultimately was rewarded fifth place via disqualification. He’s fast, can pick a good spot early and is classy enough to be a solid contender under these conditions. Rotation won the G3 Super Derby in September and was off until March, when he made a move to the lead and then was caught late in his first Oaklawn appearance of the year. He could have the best chance for improvement in his second off the layoff.

Here’s the suggested play for the Pick 4 for races 6-9 Saturday at Oaklawn Park:

Race 6: #3 Wild Union, #4 Friar’s Road, #5 Hunt the Front, #11 Absolute Unit
Race 7: #8 Gamine, #10 Speech
Race 8: #4 Fortheluvofbourbon, #5 Fra Mauro, #6 Caribbean, #7 Don Vito Corleone, #10 Moretti
Race 9: #1 Popular Kid, #3 Fearless, #7 Rotation

50-cent Pick 4: 3-4-5-11 with 8-10 with 4-5-6-7-10 with 1-3-7 ($60)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-01-2020, 08:14 AM

Race of the Week: Oaklawn Handicap

April 29, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk
GRADE 2 $600,000 OAKLAWN HANDICAP
Saturday, May 2, 2020
By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Arkansas Derby Day takes the first Saturday in May timeslot this year, and the split divisions of that 3-year-old mainstay will bookend a fabulous renewal of the Oaklawn Handicap for older horses. Race 12 of 14 on the program has a capacity field of 14 Classic division contenders, and it's part of the card's late pick four and pick five sequences.

Field Depth:
IMPROBABLE and COMBATANT are the field's Grade 1 winners, while a bevy of Grade 2 winners include TACITUS (Grade 1-placed), TAX, BY MY STANDARDS, BRAVAZO and MR. FREEZE. Several more have won at the Grade 3 level, led by WARRIOR'S CHARGE, TROPHY CHASER and IDENTIFIER. This is an extremely strong race in which the Grade 1-Grade 2 winners will be difficult to unseat.

Pace:
WARRIOR'S CHARGE and MR. FREEZE are confirmed front-runners consistently near the engine. TROPHY CHASER also should be far forward from an inside draw. There's not a lot of other true speed in the bulky field, so there could be a cluster of mid-pack types jockeying for position. This race shape looks pretty fair to all styles on paper.

Our Eyes:
Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap 1-2-3 finishers BY MY STANDARDS, CAPTIVATING MOON and CHESS CHIEF re-match over the same 1-1/8 miles trip. That was a very slow pace at Fair Grounds, so runner-up CAPTIVATING MOON closed very well into the difficult race shape for his style. He netted a 114 BRIS late pace figure in the process, and may be the most interesting returnee of that trio behind what figures to be a more legitimate pace. BY MY STANDARDS has been sharp twice this year in victory, but he's done all his best work at Fair Grounds and notably sire Goldencents is just 9.8% winners with his offspring at Oaklawn. Stablemate Mr. Money (also by Goldencents) really disappointed here when sixth in the Oaklawn Mile earlier in the meet. BY MY STANDARDS will be one of the favorites, but I'll work against him.

We've got the local winners of the Essex (MIDNIGHT OPS) and Razorback (WARRIOR'S CHARGE), as well as the runner-up in the Oaklawn Mile (IMPROBABLE) all converging on the season finale among the handicap division. MIDNIGHT OPS would be a surprise on the class rise, though he's won 3 of his last 4 for trainer Brad Cox and lures Hall of Famer Javier Castellano. WARRIOR'S CHARGE is the preferred Cox trainee after wiring his 2020 seaonal debut. He has a superb local record, no surprise as a son of Munnings, whose babies have done great work at OP. How fast the pace pressure will be from MR. FREEZE and TROPHY CHASER likely determines how effective WARRIOR'S CHARGE will be. As for IMPROBABLE, he ran too good to lose from the far outside 11-post in the Oaklawn Mile. The 14-hole Saturday does him no favors, of course, but an additional furlong run into the clubhouse turn in the Oaklawn Handicap should make the trip a touch easier. Martin Garcia has been dynamite with Bob Baffert at Oaklawn, going 5-for-5 in recent months coming into this closing week. IMPROBABLE should be the strongest of this local stakes group, which also includes BRAVAZO, runner-up in the 2018 Preakness, but winless in the past 2 years.

Classy shippers to the Oaklawn Handicap include MR. FREEZE from Florida, TACITUS from New York and COMBATANT from California. All 3 absolutely carry winning credentials in this spot. MR. FREEZE, runner-up in the Pegasus World Cup and third in the Clark, got his breakout victory in the Gulfstream Park Mile last out Feb. 29. He probably is best in the 1-turn mile trip, but he did carry 1-1/8 miles vs. lesser in last year's West Virginia Derby. Given some pace pressure from WARRIOR'S CHARGE and perhaps TROPHY CHASER, MR. FREEZE will have to earn it up top. He's at his absolute best right now. TACITUS made his 2020 return when fifth of 14 in the rich Saudi Cup overseas. He's since returned to Belmont Park and has trained with a pair of works for this stateside racing return. Last year at 3, TACITUS won the Tampa Bay Derby and Wood before finishing second in the Belmont and Travers and third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. His Wood victory last year came second-off-the-layoff and I like the pairing with Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez. Sire Tapit gets 20% winners in Oaklawn Stakes, according to Betmix stats, and has 1-1/8 miles local stakes winners Creator and Raceday to his credit. Meanwhile, COMBATANT has improved under John Sadler's care in California after a modest run with Steve Asmussen prior. He returns to Oaklawn in the new situation after training exceptionally well for this at Santa Anita. Sadler has been on point the last month or so at OP, and Joel Rosario has been absolutely aces in route races at Oaklawn this season.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: COMBATANT is 5-for-6 in the money at Oaklawn and he's way better now than he was in his prior local forays.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender: TROPHY CHASER could be inside speed while in career form and could hang on for a minor share at what should be a very appealing price. Sire Twirling Candy hits 16% with Oaklawn offspring, a solid number.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $50 exacta part-wheel COMBATANT over TACITUS and IMPROBABLE.

**GetTheseDimes** · 05-01-2020, 04:08 PM

Indian Cowboy (Arun Shiva) 3* Under 2 Torpedo Zhodino Belaz +105 (7am)
Also the first leg of the Nicaraguan finals at 9:00 at night. Needless to say, Saturday is a huge day/night on the pitch

**Benten** · 05-01-2020, 05:55 PM

Originally posted by GetTheseDimes

Indian Cowboy (Arun Shiva) 3* Under 2 Torpedo Zhodino Belaz +105 (7am)
Also the first leg of the Nicaraguan finals at 9:00 at night. Needless to say, Saturday is a huge day/night on the pitch

thank you for posting

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2020, 06:51 AM

Jeff Siegel's Gulfstream Park Wagering Strategies - 5/2/20

May 2, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Gulfstream Park
Saturday, May 2, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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RACE 1: Post 12:45 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Coach Temple; 5-Turn of Events; 7-East Lex

Forecast: The Saturday opener brings together maiden 3-year-olds over a mile on grass. It’s not a particularly strong field, so we’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics and hope to get a bit of a price. Turn of Events is solid in the speed figure department but has managed to hit the board only once in five career starts. However, he switches to L. Saez and has faced tougher fields of late, so against this group he may be the one to beat. East Lex displayed considerable improvement when rallying to be third in his second career outing at Fair Grounds and with another forward move today he’ll be a major player. Drawn much better today (he was 14 of 14 last time out), the M. Maker-trained son of City Zip seems a bit better than his morning line of 6-1 gives him credit for. Coach Temple is a first-timer by Curlin running long on the lawn for the S. Joseph, Jr. barn, which is reasonably competent with debut runners. His works have been okay and one of the stable’s main guys V. Lebron takes the call, so in an open affair he’s worth including in your rolling exotics.
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RACE 2: Post 1:15 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 6-Nacho Papa; 7-Luckytobeinamerica; 8-Gran Causeway

Forecast: Here’s a low-level $8,000 claiming sprint for older horses that looks somewhat challenging. We’ll use three, you may find the need to go deeper. Luckytobeinamerica dropped to this level and finished third over this track and distance vs. similar last month, retains T. Gaffalione, and should draft into an ideal pace-stalking position and have every chance to seal the deal in the final stages. The D. Schettino-trained gelding has several back numbers good enough to win in this league and though primarily a grass sprinter so far in his career, should eventually prove to be just as effective on dirt . Nacho Papa didn’t get out well and was no factor in a similar sprint in late March but with a clean start today should be able to draft into a good second flight position and then make some noise from the quarter pole home. This jockey-trainer combo has been red hot of late, and the son of Brethren is good enough to win at this level with his best effort. Gran Causeway, a solid runner-up in the same race that Luckytobeinamerica just finished third in, should be a solid contender right back but has low percentage connections that are hard to back with confidence. The son of Giant’s Causeway has finished first or second in four of eight career starts over the local main track, so he should at least get a piece of it.
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RACE 3: Post 1:45 ET. Grade: X
Use: 4-Or’effice; 7-Newsworthy

Forecast: Or’effice just finished second in a fast, highly-rated race that earned him a stakes-quality speed figure, one that is far superior to par for this level. Almost eight lengths clear of the rest when missing by less than a length to the promising Candy Machine over this track and distance last month, the son of Medaglia d’Oro will be a very short price to graduate. For protection, you may want to consider on a back-up ticket Newsworthy, a debuting son of Tapit from the W. Mott barn with a solid, healthy series of drills over the deep Payson Park training center. He’s probably a decent prospect and is worth watching closely for future reference.
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RACE 4: Post 2:15 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Teenage Kicks; 3-Invaluable; 9-She So Naughty

Forecast: Teenage Kicks is the best of the known element in this maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for older fillies and mares, and if she can avoid trouble from the rail the daughter of Into Mischief figures as a major contender under I. Ortiz, Jr. The concern is that she’s not particular fast on speed figures and doesn’t have a lot of gate speed, so while we’ll include her in our rolling exotics she could be susceptible to one of the two intriguing newcomers in the field, neither of which have be world beaters to win. She So Naughty is comfortably drawn outside for the always-dangerous T. Pletcher/E. Zayas combo and debuts in a soft but realistic spot for a barn that wins at a strong 21% with first time starters. Let’s put her slight on top. Invaluable shows a bullet gate work at Palm Meadows last month in :48 4/5, the fastest of 22 for the distance, so the daughter of the old but well respected “filly sire” Include should be given consideration as well.
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RACE 5: Post 2:46 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Followhisfootsteps; 5-Valdocco; 8-Phish Fan

Forecast: Here’s another modest claiming sprint, this one a bottom-rung $6,250 affair that seems fairly wide open. Slight edge on top goes to Followhisfootsteps, a recent winner in a restricted (nw-3) $8,000 affair that produced a career top speed figure, one that is significantly better than par for this level. Regular pilot L. Saez stays aboard and should have this Field Commission gelding on or near the lead throughout, assuming he can turn in two-alike. If ‘Steps bounces off that recent win, Valdocco, who just finished second vs. similar last month, has to be considered a strong threat despite his low percentage trainer/jockey combo. The son of Tapizar can stalk and pounce or press the issue, so if he can secure a clean trip he’ll be right there. Phish Fan was in too tough in his first start since returning from Parx last month and was no factor in a starter $8,000 optional claimer, but E. Jaramillo stays aboard and the 10-year-old gelding, a winner of 13 races in his long career, should be given a chance to bounce back at 6-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 6: Post 3:17 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Loriloupies; 5-Customerexperience; 8-Fast Fionnuala

Forecast: A stronger-than-par starter optional claimer for 3-year-old fillies has three legitimate candidates. Customerxperience, fourth over a sloppy track at the Big A in December when facing a stronger first-level allowance field as the favorite, may have not cared for the wet going and is solid fit on the basis of her debut score the previous month on fast ground. She was claimed out of her first start for $75,000 and won at 6-1 – somebody knew something – and remains protected in a sign of confidence. The work tab at Gulfstream Park West is very impressive for new trainer S. Joseph, Jr., who hits at a powerful 26% with layoff runners. Fast Loriloupies, another Joseph, Jr. entrant and a major contender in her own right, crushed maiden $50,000 rivals by almost seven lengths in early February but shows a spotty work pattern since. She may be the quickest of the contenders and if she can shake loose early the daughter of Rattlesnake Bridge could be hard to overhaul. Fionnuala probably didn’t beat much when graduating at first asking vs. $40,000 maiden claiming foes last month at Tampa Bay Downs but did it like a filly who can be very competitive on this tougher circuit. The D. Bennett-trained daughter of Verrazano earned a speed figure that makes her dangerous right back, picks up L. Saez, and figures to be on the front or comfortably placed outside in a stalker’s role.
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RACE 7: Post 3:22 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Positive Phil; 12-Notsosubtle

Forecast: Positive Phil was a beaten favorite in a similar restricted (nw-2) $20,000 claimer over the local lawn last month but ran a winning race in defeat while more than three lengths clear of the rest and earned a career top speed figure in the process. You would think that a repeat of that effort today should be good enough, but the son of Paynter is winless in nine career starts over the Gulfstream Park turf course and may not be one to trust. We’ll reluctantly put him on top in a weak affair while also including the 20-1 morning line bomber Notsosubtle. Yes, he’s drawn poorly outside in the 12-hole going seven and one-half furlongs, but he’s a second-off-a-layoff play for a barn that has excellent stats with this angle and retains E. Jaramillo. He had a rough trip vs. much tougher in his first outing in 19 months, should move forward off that race, and has back numbers that make him dangerous, so you should try to find a spot for him somewhere on your ticket.
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RACE 8: Post 3:48 ET. Grade: B
Single: 3-Kid Bourbon; 9-Beau Luminarie

Forecast: Kid Bourbon earned a giant speed figure – a career top – when a sharp runner-up in a fast, highly-rated turf miler at this level last time out but his dirt form is strong, too, and the son of Lemon Drop Kid, with an ideal second-flight style for this main track mile trip, should continue his improving pattern for M. Hennig. We’ll give him the edge on top. Beau Luminarie also is a contender off his best race. A big figure maiden winner over this course and distance two runs back, the son of I Want Revenge flopped badly in his next start as the favorite but lands the cozy outside post today and is very likely to inherit an easy pace-pressing trip that should bring out his best. Toss him in at 6-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 9: Post 4:53 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Envoutante; 2-Highland Glory

Forecast: Envoutante destroyed a maiden field last month while earning stakes-quality speed figure, but she did it on dirt and today’s Honey Ryder Stakes for 3-year-old fillies will be contested on grass. Can she replicate her scintillating maiden victory on turf? The daughter of Uncle Mo finished third in her debut on the lawn when clearly needing the race, so we doubt the switch in surface will have much effect. Yes, this is a significant raise in class, but the K. McPeek-trained filly shows a bullet five furlong drill (:59 1/5, fastest of 26) since raced and strikes us as one that has plenty of further improvement in her. Dangerous on the lead or from a stalking position, she’s a logical top pick at 8/5 on the morning line. Highland Glory is considerably slower on speed figures that Envoutante but she’s a winner of her last pair including a listed stakes over this turf course and can really turn it on in the final furlong. The daughter of Sky Mesa is worth using as a back-up or a saver.
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RACE 10: Post 5:25 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Network Effect; 6-He Hate Me

Forecast: Network Effect clipped heels, stumbled, lost all position and then did as well as he could to wind up a game second with a career top speed figure in a second-level allowance event last time out. If he can leave cleanly today, the C. Brown-trained colt should be hard to deny in this Florida-bred seven furlong stakes. The lightly-raced son of Mark Valeski switches to I. Ortiz, Jr. and has the perfect style for this extended sprint trip. He’s 2-1 on the morning line and on paper looks every bit of that. He Hate Me returns to state-bred company after finishing a respectable third in the Sir Shackleton S. over this track and distance in late March. His numbers are consistent, he’s hit the board in 13 of 16 career starts, and is worth using as a saver in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 11: Post 5:57 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Gufo; 8-Proven Strategies; 12-Ever Dangerous

Forecast: Proven Strategies took seven races to finally break his maiden but now that he’s apparently figured things out the son of Sky Mesa appears on the verge of becoming one of the better 3-year-old turf performers in his class. After easily dispatching state-bred foes two runs back in a common gallop, the M. Casse-trained colt came back to win a first-level allowance on the front end while never really being asked for his best, earning a career top speed figure in the process. He’s tackling open competition in this listed stakes for 3-year-olds but could easily be up to the task, and at 6-1 on the morning line offers excellent wagering value both in the win pool and in rolling exotic play. Gufo is worth strong consideration as well. A son of Declaration of War with just three prior outings and rising speed figures in each, he’s won his last pair with authority while exhibiting a powerful late kick. He picks up I. Ortiz, Jr. and with some help up front looms the one to contain in the final stages. Ever Dangerous won at first asking like a very nice prospect. He’s tackling much stronger foes today and must leave from the extreme outside post, so the task is daunting, but at 10-1 on the morning line he’s worth using on a ticket or two as a saver.
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RACE 12: Post 6:28 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Britesideoftheroad; 5-La Incondicional; 8-Little Code

Forecast: The nightcap is a $16,000 turf router for older fillies and mares. No easy task, for sure. Britesideoftheroad drops to a realistic level and may regain her best form after fading in a tougher starter’s optional claimer last time out. Her two prior races were good, and a repeat of either one of them against this group probably will be good enough. La Incondicional crushed a restricted (nw-3) $16,000 field three weeks ago with good pace-stalking trip and career top number. If she can turn in two alike, she can be a threat right back. She has good tactical speed and all three of his lifetime victories have been accomplished over the local lawn. Little Code, now in the R. B. Hess, Jr.-barn and freshened since mid-February hasn’t won since the fall of 2018 but she has speed figures that fit and picks up L. Saez, who will have her doing her best work from off the pace. She provides a price chance at 12-1 on the morning line.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2020, 06:51 AM

Jeff Siegel's Oaklawn Park Wagering Strategies - 5/2/20

May 1, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Oaklawn Park
Saturday, May 2, 2020
*

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
*
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
*
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

RACE 1: Post 12:00 CT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Timely Tradition; 3-Miss Imperial

Forecast: New York shipper Timely Tradition arrives fresh from a career-top performance vs. $25,000 sellers and today is protected in a salty starter’s allowance sprint for fillies and mares. She doesn’t usually display much gate speed so her rail post may be a bit problematic but it’s clear that the R. Handal-trained mare is as good now as she’s ever been and with the presence of J. Rosario in the saddle she’s very likely to fire another big shot. First or second in 13 of 26 career starts, the daughter of First Defence always has been genuine and consistent. Miss Imperial seeks her fourth straight score in her first-off-the-claim and if she can run as well for new trainer M. Duncan as she did for B. Cox the multiple stakes-placed daughter of Maclean’s Music will be dangerous once again. Interestingly, this will be the seventh consecutive race in which she’s be ridden by a different jockey. We’ll prefer Timely Tradition on top but have tickets including both in our rolling exotics
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RACE 2: Post 12:32 CT. Grade: B+
Single: 6-Scolding

Forecast: Scolding brought $475,00 at the 2019 OBS April sale where she breezed in 20 3/5 seconds, the fastest quarter mile at the preview session. She finally makes it to the races more than a year later – she was ready to run in March but came up with an issue and missed an entire month of training – and has done everything asked of her while preparing at Sam Houston, Benton Training Center in Louisiana, and most recently here at Oaklawn Park, where she turned in an eye-catching :47 2/5 gate work late last month, the fifth fastest of 83 for the distance. The S. Asmussen stable is solid with debut runners and the barn’s go-to rider R. Santana, Jr. takes the call, so this daughter of Carpe Diem looks cranked up and ready to win as a straight play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post 1:04 CT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Captain Don; 4-Tempt Fate

Forecast: This first-level allowance sprint for Arkansas-bred older horses should boil down to two main contenders, each exiting the $100,000 Rainbow Stakes. Captain Don, a good runner-up in the Rainbow over this track and distance last month while earning a career top speed figure, probably won’t need much more to beat this field. The son of Flat Out has a good pace-stalking/pressing style, and in a field without much zip it he may even be able to inherit the role as the controlling speed. Tempt Fate has rising numbers and was a good third in the Rainbow, winding up less than two lengths behind our top pick. There is, however, a two pound weight shift today in favor of Captain Don, for whatever that’s worth. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press with Captain Don on top.
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RACE 4: Post 1:36 CT. Grade: B-
Use: 7-Major Attraction; 9-Uncle Addouma; 11-Bank

Forecast: Bank and Major Attraction exit the same race in which they finished third and fourth, respectively, over a track that was a bit more wet than the track surface’s official “good” designation. We got the impression that Major Attraction didn’t really handle it and was struggling most of the way, though he remained in the thick of things until deep stretch. His runner-up effort at Fair Grounds the previous month wasn’t bad, so over a fast track today the son of Distorted Humor has a chance to step forward with his best try, and In a race that doesn’t have much early speed he should be within striking range throughout. In his first start since joining the S. Asmussen barn, Bank produced a significant forward move when saving ground throughout and staying on nicely while earning a much improved speed figure. Both of his sprint races were good, including his third place debut run at Churchill Downs last summer behind two next out winners (South Bend and Answer In), and with three nice breezes since raced the son of Bernardini should be primed for top try. Uncle Addouma is a first-timer from the M. McCarthy barn that brought $145,000 at the 2019 Timonium May sale after breezing a furlong in good style in :10 2/5. He’s shown some ability in the a.m. at Santa Anita, including a noteworthy :47 2/5 gate back in March, though in viewing the video of his works the son of Uncle Mo, while certainly having some talent, doesn’t necessarily strike us as a quick type. At any rate, we have to use him, especially with F. Prat taking the call. These are the three we’ll be including in our rolling exotics; a very slight edge on top may go to Major Attraction.
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RACE 5: Post 2:10 CT. Grade: B
Use: 9-Bankit; 11-Endorsed; 12-Pirate’s Punch

Forecast: Endorsed has been tried in three Grade-1 races in his seven race career, so you know he’s always been highly-regarded. Most recently he finished a better-than-looked fifth when beaten just over three lengths despite being very wide every step of the way in the Santa Anita H.-G1. The son of Madaglia d’Oro sets his sights lower in this third-level allowance race while switching to J. Rosario, and a recent bullet workout over the deep Payson Park training track should have him on edge. In a race that should produce a strong early pace, the W. Mott-trained colt seems capable of producing the last run. Bankit has been facing tougher as well, and this deep-closing New York-bred colt should make an impression in the late stages based on the projected race flow. He’s a fit on speed figures but is winless in six starts over the Oaklawn Park main track, though he’s run some excellent races in good company. Pirate’s Punch takes the absolute worst of the draw but in his present form the son of Shanghai Bobby may be sharp enough to cross over and secure his coveted front-running or pace-stalking trip. He was a visually impressive five length winner over this track and distance vs. softer last time in a race that earned a strong a number, but this group is tougher, for sure.
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RACE 6: Post 2:44 CT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Friar’s Road; 5-Hunt the Front

Forecast: Friar’s Road seems certain to receive plenty of play based on his obvious edge in the speed figure department and his mid-March strong runner-up effort to Shooter’s Shoot, a subsequent good allowance winner at Oaklawn Park. With the switch to F. Prat and the addition of blinkers, the son of Quality Road has much in his favor and is strictly the one to beat, but could he be a vulnerable favorite? Our feeling is that his last race may have flattered him a bit and in watching the video he struck us a grinding, one-paced type with no real turn of foot. Sure, he might simply be the best horse and win anyway, but while we’ll include him in our rolling exotics our main gamble goes to Hunt the Front. The deep-closing son of Revolutionary has finished second in each of his last three starts, switches to J. Rosario, and at this nine furlong trip the N. Zito-trained colt will have every chance to produce the last run, especially if there’s a normal-to-decent early pace. He’ll also be back on the fast ground that we suspect he prefers.
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RACE 7: Post 3:16 CT. Grade: X
Use: 8-Gamine; 10-Speech; 13-Ain’t No Elmers

Forecast: Gamine had trained like the goods prior to her much-anticipated racing debut and the daughter of Into Mischief didn’t disappoint, winning under wraps at Santa Anita in early March with a stakes-quality speed figure. Everything she’s done in the morning since points to her being even better as the distances increase, so this stretch out in trip should not be worrisome at all. She’s what $1.8 million gets you in a two-year-old-in-training sale. On the small chance that she fails to reproduce her true ability for whatever reason, you can you use a couple of others on a back-up ticket. Speech, most recently second to the high class Donna Veloce in the Santa Ysabel S.-G3 last time out, apparently at this stage of her career can’t beat a real good filly but it takes a pretty decent one to beat her. Her numbers are pretty good and she picks up J. Castellano. Ain’t No Elmers unbeaten in two runaway sprints at Fair Grounds while earning impressive numbers, draws in from the also-eligible list and must leave from the far outside post. Hard to say who she was beating in Louisiana but she sure looked good doing it and on pedigree should be able to stay a middle distance.
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RACE 8: Post 3:47 CT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Benintendi; 4-Fortheluvofbourbon; 6-Caribbean; 10-Moretti

Forecast: The is a deep and powerful race for the level, an entry-level allowance affair that offers several possibilities. had to settle for second when his stable mate Blewitt got loose on the lead and proved impossible to catch in a highly-rated race for this condition at Gulfstream Park last month. The son of Medaglia d’Oro has earned consistently strong speed figures in his seven-race career and seems certain to continue to improve with experience and maturity. In a race loaded with pace-types, the T. Pletcher-trained colt should have every chance to tag the speed under J. Castellano. Fortheluvofbourbon, a lightly-raced gelding from the P. D’Amato barn, has produced a forward move in each of his three career starts and ran better than looked when finishing fifth after stumbling at the start in a hot race won by future star Pneumatic. The son of Bourbon Courage has a good stalking style and projects to enjoy an ideal second-flight trip and then have his chance from the quarter pole home. Benintendi likely will employ gate-to-wire tactics from his favorable rail draw in his first try around two turns. His Laurel Park speed figures match up quite nicely at this level; however, having finished second in his last three starts as an odds-on favorite makes him a bit difficult to trust. Caribbean has become a different sort of race horse this year after failing to do much of anything as a 3-year-old in California. A recent nine-length romp produced a career top number over this track and distance but this group is infinitely tougher. Yes, if you hand him a loose-on-the-lead trip the R. Diodoro-trained gelding may never look back, but with other speed signed on the son of Speightstown may have to resort to stalk-and-pounce tactics. In either case, he’s worth including on a ticket or two in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 9: Post 4:19 CT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Fearless; 7-Rotation

Forecast: Fearless was the victim of a brutal trip in the New Orleans Classic-G2, racing in traffic and in tight quarters and never really being able to abstract himself at any stage, eventually being shut off in mid-stretch and then winding up sixth as the 9/5 favorite in what was just his third career start. The talented Ghostzapper gelding, a highly impressive winner of his first two career outings, returns to the allowance ranks today, and a with trouble-free journey he should regain his winning form. Johnny V. takes over and likely will have this gelding in a pace-stalking, ground-saving trip position every step of the way. Rotation is worth using as a back-up. A nice runner-up with a good speed figure over a sloppy track in his first start since last summer, the S. Asmussen-trained colt may have hit the front too soon and was worn down late in that race but with patient tactics today the son of Tapit should produce a forward move and at the very least complete the exacta.
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RACE 10: Post 4:54 CT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Ginobili; 7-Candy Tycoon; 11-Rushie; 12-Background

Forecast: Here’s yet another monster first-level allowance middle distance affair, this one restricted to 3-year-olds. Rushie was no match for Charlatan when a distant second in a first-level allowance main track miler at Santa Anita in mid-March but even in defeat earned a strong speed figure while continuing his improving pattern. The son of Liam’s Map picks up J. Rosario and seems likely to settle into a good second flight spot outside and then have dead aim when the pressure is turned on. We’ll see what he’s made of today. Ginoboli tossed in a clunker in his local debut, breaking a bit slowly, getting behind horses while in traffic to the turn and then failing to respond when asked through the lane. He’s been trouble prone before and doesn’t always break well, so the talented but somewhat erratic son of Munnings may not be one to trust. However, this is his first try around two turns, and if he leaves running from his favorable inside draw the R. Baltas-trained colt could take this field a very long way. It’s hard to ignore his excellent runner-up effort in the San Vicente S.-G2 when beaten less than a length by Nadal two races back. Candy Tycoon was fanned into the parking lot around the clubhouse turn and lost whatever chance he may have had when far back behind Tiz the Law in the Florida Derby-G1, so we’ll toss that race out. The Twirling Candy colt was previously a distant second in the Fountain of Youth S.-G2 behind loose-on-the-lead Ete Indien, so against this group the T. Pletcher-trained warrants some consideration. Background couldn’t get untracked over the wet surface and finished far back in the Oaklawn Stakes lasts month but he’s liable to significantly improve on a fast surface and could make some noise from far off the pace if the fractions are fast enough to compliment his style. We’ll have tickets including all four in our rolling exotics and then press a bit keying Rushie on top.
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RACE 11: Post 5:29 CT. Grade: X
Single: 1-Charlatan

Forecast: Charlatan will be the shortest priced horse on the entire 14-race program and it will take something unforeseen to see him defeated in the first division of the Arkansas Derby based on his superior form in California and his scintillating workouts leading up to his stakes debut. An extremely fast colt who showed he could easily handle a mile in his most recent start, the son of Speightstown lands the rail and catches a field without any pace whatsoever, which means the B. Baffert-trained, already with a huge edge in speed figures and a glaring advantage based on the projected pace flow, looks almost certain to remain unbeaten. Will the mile and one-eighth distance test him in any way? Not likely. Even money on the morning and almost certain to lower, he’ll be too short to play other than as a logical rolling exotic single. For exacta players, consider using Basin underneath. A Grade-1 winner as a two-year-old the S. Asmussen-trained colt has run a bit better than the lines will show in a pair of recent sloppy track races, in both cases seemingly uncomfortably in the going (yes, we know, he did win the Hopeful S.-G1 last year over a wet track). We’re quite interested to see how he performs on dry land, and from his outside draw shouldn’t have any traffic trouble. Do we think he can beat Charlatan? No, but might be able to finish second.
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RACE 12: Post 6:04 CT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Trophy Chaser; 4-Mr Freeze; 9-Tacitus; 14-Improbable

Forecast: The Oaklawn Handicap-G2 will feature 14 mostly evenly-matched older horses over nine furlongs in a throwback to some of the old classic races from decades past. What a challenging race to handicap! In his current form, Mr Freeze offers value at 6-1 on the morning line, though he’s far from being a single at that or price, or any price. Fresh from a career-top performance in the Gulfstream Park Mile, the D. Romans-trained horse remains a relatively fresh horse at age five with just 12 career starts, and while this mile and one-eighth distance may be stretching his limit, the son of To Honor and Serve can get the trip as long as he’s not facing the very best in the division. He’s probably most effective on the lead but can stalk and pounce if the race flow demands, so new jockey J. Talamo can play it by ear. Improbable is stuck way outside again, but at least this time he’ll have a longer run into the clubhouse turn so there’s a reasonable expectation that he’ll be able to tuck in and secure a good second flight, stalking trip. Third in all three of his previous outings over the local main track, the B. Baffert-trained colt made his first start since Breeders’ Cup day in November when worn down late by Tom’s Etat in the Oaklawn Mile last month over a wet fast track that he probably wasn’t in love with. We like that instead of shipping back to California, the son of City Zip stayed put and trained locally for this race, so we’re expecting to see his best stuff today. Tacitus was a respectable fifth of 14 in the Saudi World Cup-G1 behind Maximum Security in late February and if the trip didn’t take too much out of him the W. Mott-trained son of Tapit should be quite formidable. He’s probably most effective when held up early and allowed to run late and should get that type of ride with the switch to Johnny V. Price players should also give a look to Trophy Chaser, rapidly improving and very fast on figures but unproven at this level. A winner of his last pair with triple-digit Beyer numbers, the J. Avila-trained colt is comfortably drawn comfortably inside and could possibly outrun his morning line of 12-1.
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RACE 13: Post 6:43 CT. Grade: A-
Single: 5-Nadal

Forecast: Although his overall speed figure suffered a bit due to the intense pace battle that he was subjected to in the Rebel S.-G2, Nadal was super impressive in finding reserve energy that only top class horses have and we’re expecting the fractions to be a bit more comfortable for him today in this second division of the Arkansas Derby. The son of Blame has trained superbly at his home base at Santa Anita and returns to Oaklawn Park fitter, stronger, and most likely better while attempting to extend his unbeaten winning streak to four. Regular rider J. Rosario will take the early lead if its handed to him but has the option of tucking and stalking if the situation dictates. There’s a question of whether the B. Baffert-trained colt will lose some effectiveness at this nine furlong trip but the gamble is that he’ll handle it just fine, just as his pedigree suggests he should. At 5/2 on the morning line, he’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 14: Post 7:14 CT. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Carlos Sixes; 8-Ghostly Who

Forecast: The traditional final race on the final day of the Oaklawn Park season is a starter’s $10,000 allowance over the marathon distance of a mile and three-quarters. Who really knows how many of these really want to run this far? Carlos Sixes has won at 10 furlongs on turf, so there’s that. The veteran son of Quality Road always has been a bit of a grinder so there’s a chance he’ll really enjoy the journey and in his present form the K. Broberg trained gelding deserves the edge on top. Ghostly Who, first or second in 13 of 24 career starts, can be counted on for an honest effort and it would not be shocking to see him as the early leader. From a high percentage barn and with a local win two races back, he’s worth including at 12-1 on the morning line.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2020, 06:52 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Oaklawn Park - Race #8

#4 Fortheluvofbourbon	Lightly raced runner was better than it looked 5th in his route debut, has the tactical speed to lay close, drew well, should only be able to improve off that trial run, has a world of upside off just three lifetime starts, and will be a very square price too; lots to like from the pick.
#10 Moretti	ML favorite for Pletcher was a distant 2nd to his stablemate at GP last time, a stablemate who had bombed in two straight too, so that run might not be as solid as it looks on paper, especially when he's shipping to a new track, and you're taking an underlaid price; scary, but no lock.
#6 Carribean	Speedy sort absolutely freaked against lesser off the Diodoro re-claim, which isn't a big surprise as he walked on the lead, but there will be no free passes up front in here, and he almost has to regress on the class rise off such a monumental effort; taking a strong stand against on top.
Race Summary	The price will be right on the 4, who seemingly catches a field there for the taking, and one with enough speed that he can sit just off of too, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially the middle Pk4 as well, since there's a good chance he falls right through the wagering cracks, which means a win would go a long way in adding plenty of value to the sequence.

Oaklawn Park - Race #10

#7 Candy Tycoon	Pletcher charge was a distant 2nd in the GII Fountain of Youth two-back then didn't have a clean go of it in the GI Florida Derby, so clearly this class drop is a seismic one, plus the expected honest pace will help, and yet he may not even be favored; look out.
#11 Rushie	ML favorite will get bet hard off that distant 2nd to Charlatan, and sure, he will be tough to handle here, but it's not like he did a lot of running last time, and someone has to be 2nd when they run a horse race, plus this wide draw won't help either; second-best.
#3 Strong Tide	Ginormous longshot was 8th in his 3yo debut here last time, and while that effort won't even register on the radar of the top pair, it wasn't that bad, he's going to move forward off it, and the pace will flatter his stretch running style too; could blow up your exotics.
Race Summary	That 3-1 ML would be juicy on the pick, as he's been facing about 4-6 runners who would be odds-on in here, and if you view him off the FOY run, which is easy to do with all the trouble last time, he's too good for these, so play him aggressively to win and place if the tote allows, though you can get some built-in value by singling him to kick off the late Pk5, since that's not a move the betting public likes to make in the opening leg of a horinzontal bet, so a $7 or so mutuel might be a point or two higher in the sequence.

Oaklawn Park - Race #13

#10 Farmington Road	Deep closer broke last in the Oaklawn last time yet closed like a freight train, and probably wins if he runs straight late, and while this is a big leap in class, he catches a field loaded with speed, and is experienced at the distance, and seems to be getting good at the right time; runs by them all.
#7 Silver Prospector	Price player is another who should like the race flow, and if you view him off his fast track win two-back in the local GIII Southwest, he's got a huge chance here, so as long as Mother Nature cooperates and the skies don't open up, and he gets his race track, he can make a dent late; do not ignore.
#4 King Guillermo	Upset winner of the GII Tampa Bay Derby shocked them at 49-1 in his dirt debut, and while that price is long gone here, he might get left alone a bit since the public will that that run was a fluke, when in fact it's as good or better than anything anyone else in here has done; would be no surprise.
Race Summary	Pace makes the race and there's a ton of it in here, not to mention a lot of it is suspect going this far too, so play the pick in all the slots, and especially in the late Pk5/Pk4, since 8-1 or so seems assured, and that would be very fair on a stretch runner who looks to be coming up to a biggie, and seems to be getting all the best of it in here too.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2020, 06:52 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Oaklawn Park - Race #9

#7 Rotation	Tactical pace got a useful comeback run last time out, and he has been slowly heading in the right direction throughout his career, landing him that Grade III Super Derby win last year. With a step forward, look out.
#3 Fearless	He can win this, but the guess is he's overbet off this trouble line last time out. He didn't have the easiest go of things into the backstretch, but he was also very clearly not going to win that race by the time he got into the trouble down the lane. Tough call, but I prefer to stay away from a likely overbet horse off a line that really wasn't as full of excuses as the PPs would lead you to believe.
#1 Popular Kid	Will have to navigate a trip from the inside, but he's tactical enough to work it out, and something like his last two will keep him in the mix today.
Race Summary	Rotation can move forward in this second start off the layoff, and any kind of improvement would probably lead him to a lifetime best that would be good enough to handle these.

Oaklawn Park - Race #11

#1 Charlatan	Will be a prohibitive favorite, but the absence of Shooters Shoot should make this a likely coronation if he breaks and finds the front. There isn't any other super serious pace to bother him, so this is the kind of race that could very easily be won in the opening half mile.
#8 Anneau d'Or	Here's the best alternative. He bombed in the Risen Star when wearing blinkers, so that's a potential excuse, and he just never got into the groove once bumped under the wire for the first time. His 2yo form could probably make Charlatan take a few deep breaths late, but that's a real gamble. Wouldn't really blame anyone trying to land here in hopes that he has a massive form reversal today.
#4 Gouverneur Morris	Really didn't finish with much energy late in the Florida Derby, and he's not likely to get a particularly serious pace to chase this time around, either.
Race Summary	Charlatan is a chalk I hate to take, but I think he's too good for this group with an advantageous race shape waiting for him. With a clean break, he can put this field away early.

Oaklawn Park - Race #12

#12 By My Standards	Has had two beautiful trips that he made with his tactical pace, but he has turned in a pair of powerhouse performances since coming back as a 4yo. The draw and the new footing offer potential hurdles, but this may be his chance to stamp himself as a legit player in the older horse division.
#4 Mr Freeze	Nothing wrong with the two races at Gulfstream, but there is a mild concern with the fact that he doesn't always finish his races with a ton of punch, and that could be a liability at this 9f trip.
#7 Combatant	Put it together for the Grade I win last out, and he has now shown a bit of versatility in his running style that could lead to a nice trip today.
Race Summary	By My Standards has a right to be tough with this group after two very impressive performances in which he did not have to work particularly hard. His tactical pace should allow him to find a decent enough spot from a wide draw.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2020, 06:53 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #9

#2 Highland Glory	Is perfect in two turf races, including a win in the Sanibel Island Stakes last out; gets another ideal pace setup and will likely show the late energy that carried her to success.
#12 Seducer	First local start was a dud after cruising home to an easy debut win at Aqueduct; has trained very well since her latest and likely will show a lot of improvement.
#1 Envoutante	Moves over to the turf after an outstanding maiden score on dirt; debuted on turf three back and ran a good 3rd.
Race Summary	Highland Glory is the best closer and will likely get a good speed battle ahead of her; Saez picks up the mount and can guide her to a third straight win.

Gulfstream Park - Race #10

#4 Garter and Tie	Was dull in his 1st off the eight-month layoff and is likely to improve; his best races have been over the strip.
#6 He Hate Me	Was 3rd in a stakes race last time and usually is in the ballpark here; seeks his 1st since scoring at Saratoga in July.
#3 Network Effect	Made a good run for 2nd in an optional claiming race here in March; is graded stakes placed, both at Aqueduct.
Race Summary	Garter and Tie has won three races and nearly $400K over the Gulfstream track; has a good closing move and can be expected to improve off his 1st of the year.

Gulfstream Park - Race #11

#7 South Bend	Has turned in a versatile performance and was 2nd to Decorated Invader last time out; has been on the board in seven of eight and can get the jump on other closers.
#1 Express Pharoah	Held on for a maiden win last time and is a much better colt over the grass; he has a win and a pair of 2nds over the turf and can be a forward factor from the outset.
#4 Gufo	Clsoed strongly and was up just in time in both local starts and has developed in a tremendous closer in only three starts; should be taken seriously.
Race Summary	South Bend has become very consistent and was graded-stakes placed two back in a race that went in 1:33 for a mile; has faced good company and is well placed here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2020, 08:51 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park

Gulfstream Park - Race 6	$1 Daily Double / $2 Quinella / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Super Hi 5 / $.50 Bet 3 (Races 6-7-8)
SO $50,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 85 • Purse: $33,000 • Post: 3:17P
FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN OR CLAIMING OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 2 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $20,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Trailer. GLORY DIA is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FREEZER BURN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. GLORY DIA: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distan ce/surface. ONE HOT DRAMA: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. FAST FIONNUALA: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. LORILOUPIES: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50.
6	FREEZER BURN	6/1	6/1
4	GLORY DIA	12/1	7/1
7	ONE HOT DRAMA	10/1	7/1
8	FAST FIONNUALA	6/1	7/1
3	LORILOUPIES	5/2	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	ONE HOT DRAMA	7	10/1	Front-runner	78	77	82.4	72.8	60.8
8	FAST FIONNUALA	8	6/1	Front-runner	64	82	70.2	77.7	70.7
3	LORILOUPIES	3	5/2	Front-runner	80	78	62.9	62.5	56.0
6	FREEZER BURN	6	6/1	Stalker	80	74	74.7	72.4	69.4
1	SMITTEN FOR SMITTY	1	12/1	Stalker	77	72	54.8	63.9	53.4
2	SWEETHEART DEAL	2	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	77	78	78.4	57.2	44.7
5	CUSTOMEREXPERIENCE	5	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	70	77	70.6	71.6	61.6
4	GLORY DIA	4	12/1	Trailer	82	76	50.0	70.6	61.1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2020, 08:51 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 3	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager) $1 Pick Three
Claiming $5,000 • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 88 • Purse: $11,500 • Post: 6:56P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE MARCH 2 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (MAIDEN RACES AND RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * IT'S JUST BOB: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equi base Speed Figure at the distance/surface. UNCLE GOYLE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GUTSY STREAK: Today is a sprint, horse is a Fr ont-runner with an inside post position. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. LEEDSLIMIT: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
3	IT'S JUST BOB	7/2	5/1
6	UNCLE GOYLE	4/1	6/1
2	GUTSY STREAK	6/1	7/1
4	LEEDSLIMIT	3/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	FANCY TERRACE	7	6/1	Front-runner	83	82	86.7	72.0	62.0
6	UNCLE GOYLE	6	4/1	Front-runner	89	89	80.6	83.2	76.2
4	LEEDSLIMIT	4	3/1	Front-runner	81	82	77.5	73.8	64.8
2	GUTSY STREAK	2	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	94	86	81.8	75.4	68.4
1	STORMIN TRICK	1	10/1	Stalker	85	81	70.2	73.0	65.5
5	JOHANN'S COMMAND	5	4/1	Stalker	83	72	67.0	67.8	55.8
3	IT'S JUST BOB	3	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	93	86	66.6	82.4	79.9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2020, 08:52 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Handicap Stakes - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $35000 Class Rating: 106

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, KAWEAH BAR H. - GRADE 3 THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 TAC ME UP 9/2
# 1 CHOCOLATITO 3/1
# 7 MY FAVORITE CARTEL 4/1

I think TAC ME UP is a solid choice. Must be carefully examined based on the very good Equibase speed fig recorded in the last contest. Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this gelding. Odell and Nicasio have won 26 percent of their races giving this horse a decent chance. CHOCOLATITO - His 98 average has this gelding with among the most competitive speed figures in this race. Recently Willoughby has provided bettors with a formidable winning percentage with horses running in short races.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-02-2020, 08:52 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Maiden - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $11600 Class Rating: 71

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 SAGE FRANKLIN 5/1
# 5 CARTERS ANGEL 3/1
# 9 CORONA COBRA 10/1

SAGE FRANKLIN has a decent shot to take this race. Tough to pass on this gelding with Delgado in the irons. Has to be carefully examined - I like the figures from the last contest. The average class rating alone makes this one a solid contender. CARTERS ANGEL - Has to be considered against this group of horses displaying very good numbers recently and an average Equibase Speed Figure of 61 under similar conditions. Should come out solid - I have liked the way this filly has moved swiftly to the front end recently. CORONA COBRA - Has to be carefully examined here if only for the solid speed figure recorded in the last race. With a reliable 61 average speed figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's race.

Service Plays Saturday 5/2/20

Service Plays Saturday 5/2/20

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