Service Plays Saturday 5/2/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Oaklawn Park - Race #4 - Post: 1:36pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $60,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating:

#11 BANK (ML=3/1)
#8 J Z MY MAN (ML=5/1)


BANK - I like to bet on this angle, a horse coming back off a good race within the last month or so. This horse could be tough this time, especially since Santana rode in the last race and now should be better acquainted with this one. Racing at a similar level as last race on Apr 5th at Oaklawn Park. I think Asmussen has found a good spot for him, and I like his chances in this event. This colt's last speed rating is good enough to triumph here, I'll play him back again this time around. J Z MY MAN - The jockey and trainer combination have a lucrative ROI when they join forces. Ran last out against a much better field at Santa Anita. The move to a lower class level should suit him well. Sub-par try in the last race at Santa Anita was due to the off-going (he finished eighth). Will most certainly do better in this event with the benefit of a fast track. Has a pretty good chance to break maiden changing over to the dirt in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 MAJOR ATTRACTION (ML=7/2), #9 UNCLE ADDOUMA (ML=4/1), #14 GAMBLER ROCKET (ML=8/1),

MAJOR ATTRACTION - I'm forecasting a lackluster go out of him today. UNCLE ADDOUMA - Not a good enough price on this participant at the probable odds of 4/1. GAMBLER ROCKET - The Brain always warns me to stay away from thoroughbreds in short distance events that haven't hit the board in sprint contests recently. Not probable that the speed rating he recorded on April 11th will be enough in this clash.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - J Z MY MAN - At small odds in first career start this colt finished eighth on March 20th. Look for him to produce something better than last race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#11 BANK to win at post-time odds of 7/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [8,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs

05/02/20, TAM, Race 8, 4.05 ET
05/02/20,TAM,8,7F [Dirt] 1:20:04 CLAIMING. Purse $10,000. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since April 2 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $8,000 (Races Where Entered For $6,250 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.00	5	Little Guy	8-1	Almeida M	Machado. Jr. Francisco	TFW	54.55	1.65/$1
095.95	3	The Exception(b-)	4-1	Wales G	Clark Tom A.	C	54.55	1.65/$1
095.81	2	Lucky Runs North	3-1	Centeno D	Nagle Sarah	JE	54.55	1.65/$1
095.80	1	Ed's Dog	6-1	Garcia W A	Lorito Mario	L	32.82	1.05/$1
095.75	10	Sacco and Vanzetti	5-1	Spieth S	Minieri Joseph		54.55	1.65/$1
094.69	4	The Spider	15-1	Mena R	Danner Kelsey		54.55	1.65/$1
093.08	12	Rock the Park	6-1	Allen. Jr. R D	Bowersock Maria		54.55	1.65/$1
093.05	8	Eternal Cross	20-1	Urdaneta J J	Ochoa Gerard		54.55	1.65/$1
092.76	7	Indian Buzz(b+)	10-1	Santos A	Wilson Tony		54.55	1.65/$1
090.60	11	K C Twostep	30-1	Cotto. Jr. P L	Belhumeur Julie		54.55	1.65/$1
090.26	9	Irish Mail	20-1	Mejia T B	Shannon Jennifer	S	54.55	1.65/$1
088.90	6	Mr. Morningstar	30-1	Hernandez H	Burns Patty A.		54.55	1.65/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 32.08, ROI 0.90/$1

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park

05/02/20, GP, Race 6, 3.17 ET
05/02/20,GP,6,6F [Dirt] 1:08:01 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $33,000 (includes up to $5,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN OR CLAIMING OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. Weight, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since April 2 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $50,000 (Races Where Entered For $20,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.00	8	Fast Fionnuala	6-1	Saez L	Bennett Dale	SFL	37.40	1.29/$1
098.55	5	Customerexperience	3-1	Lopez P	Joseph. Jr. Saffie A.	EWC	37.40	1.29/$1
096.71	3	Loriloupies	5/2	Jaramillo E	Joseph. Jr. Saffie A.		37.40	1.29/$1
095.28	4	Glory Dia	12-1	Reyes L	Mejia Jaime	T	37.40	1.29/$1
094.83	2	Sweetheart Deal	4-1	Ortiz. Jr. I	Abreu Fernando	J	37.40	1.29/$1
094.47	1	Smitten for Smitty	12-1	Fuentes M	Ramirez Luis M.		37.40	1.29/$1
094.40	6	Freezer Burn	6-1	Gaffalione T	Fawkes David		37.40	1.29/$1
091.67	7	One Hot Drama	10-1	Zayas E J	Brownlee David R.		38.38	1.33/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 34.90, ROI 1.19/$1

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #9 - Post: 4:37pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $17,700 Class Rating: 76

Rating:

#3 PEACE TAKER (ML=6/1)
#9 MELISSANI (ML=15/1)
#4 STRONG GEM (ML=10/1)
#10 PERT (ML=6/1)


PEACE TAKER - Spieth was aboard this filly last race out and was impressed enough to take the animal right back. Utilizing this rider/trainer combination is a good move. Faced tougher last out at Tampa Bay Downs. Based on class ratings, this is a weaker field, so I will put this horse on my list of contenders in this race. MELISSANI - My experienced judgement tells me to be ready for this horse in this race STRONG GEM - This filly is in fine form, having run a nice race on Apr 15th, finishing first. PERT - In the last race on the sod, this equine was strong. Anything close in today's race, and this one should win.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 SUGAR FIX (ML=5/2), #5 MATINEE GIRL (ML=7/2), #8 SAYYIDA AL HURRA (ML=5/1),

SUGAR FIX - Doesn't appear to have enough positive angles to support the value. MATINEE GIRL - I just don't possess a positive vibe about this questionable contender in this event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 PEACE TAKER to win at post-time odds of 5/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arkansas Derby Horse-by-Horse Analysis

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April 30, 2020 | By Johnny D
Two…that’s two…for the price of one. To borrow a phrase, ‘Double your pleasure, double your fun.’ There’s no Kentucky Derby Saturday--COVID 19 saw to that--instead we’ve got two versions of the Arkansas Derby—where 22 original entries necessitated a ‘split’ of the race into two divisions. It’s a unique opportunity to see if, on the first Saturday in May 2020, two derbies can ease the postponement pain of one.

While the racing world licks wounds over a delayed 2020 Kentucky Derby, trainer Bob Baffert licks chops at the prospect of winning both divisions of the Arkansas Derby—he’s got the favorite in each race which is worth $500k and a full rack of 170 Kentucky Derby starting points each.

For much of the winter, consensus lists of top Kentucky Derby prospects have included Tiz the Law and four or five alternating ‘Bafferts.’ Saturday, two of those ‘Bafferts’—Charlatan & Nadal—hope ‘Simon sez’ to take one giant step forward toward the Derby winner’s circle.

Here’s one man’s humble horse-by-horse opinion of each division of the Arkansas Derby, followed by suggested wagering strategies. Please note ‘Odds’ are compliments of Santa Anita Morning Line Maker and contributor Jon White.

Oaklawn Park—Race 11--Arkansas Derby Grade 1 (First Division)

1. Charlatan (Baffert/Garcia) - 3/5

Two starts—six furlongs and one mile, two romping wins with triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures! This son of Speightstown hasn’t seen the hind end of a competitor yet. And he’s not likely to experience that Saturday, either. Drawn on the rail, expect jockey Martin Garcia to let Charlatan roll from the gate. There doesn’t appear to be much competing speed so they should be able to control the early pace. Charlatan is the fastest in here, is drawn well, has controlling early speed and is trained by one of the all-time greats. What’s not to like besides his extremely short price? He is by Speightstown and that sire is not especially known for producing distance runners, but there always are exceptions to the rule and this one seems ‘exceptional’ in many ways.

2. My Friends Beer (O'Dwyer/Cannon) - 30/1

He’s often in the money, but a player would need to guzzle a lot of his friend’s beer to expect him to win.

3. Mo Mosa (Maker/Carmouche) - 50/1

OK, in this case make it mimosas instead of your friend’s beer.

4. Gouverneur Morris (Pletcher/Velazquez) - 5/1

He’s a bit of a puzzle to this handicapper. He ran well to win first out and to be second to a freakish Maxfield in the Gr. 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. At three, he won a Tampa Bay allowance race at a very short price, where he was ridden hard from around mid-turn home. That led to an uninspiring fourth, five and one-quarter lengths behind division leader Tiz the Law. Everything considered, ‘The Gouv’ seems a grinder that needs to be asked for his best. He’d surprise me with a win, but he’s talented enough to hit the board. Don’t see much early speed in this race to help a grinder’s victory charge.

5. Jungle Runner (Amussen/Baze) - 50/1

Off some disappointing races it’s hard to imagine him as ‘King of this Jungle.’

6. Shooters Hoot (Eurton/Talamo) - 12/1 *SCRATCHED*

This son of Competitive Edge has some early speed. Doubt if he’ll outrun 1-Charlatan early, but he should find a comfortable stalking spot into the first turn. He’s sharp, comes off back-to-back wins—a maiden score at Santa Anita and an allowance tally at Oaklawn, both at a mile. Three back, he was second to Charlatan in a six-furlong Santa Anita sprint, beaten nearly six lengths. He added a nice one minute five-furlong breeze for this. Don’t see him turning the tables on Charlatan, but an in-the-money finish is possible.

7. Wrecking Crew (Miller/Prat) - 20/1

Following victory in a five-horse maiden race at Del Mar in July, this ridgeling son of Sky Kingdom has faced Grade 1 or Grade 2 foes, exclusively, in five starts. He’s managed a pair of seconds and a third in those races. His last two races have been poor, so he requires a real turnaround to be a factor in here.

8. Anneau d'Or (Wright/Hernandez) - 8/1

Before the season, this horseplayer was high on this colt’s 3-year-old chances. Off a freshman year that included a Golden Gate mile turf romp and a pair of graded-stakes second-place finishes, the sky appeared to be the limit. In his first start at three, this son of Medaglia d’Oro laid a huge even-money egg in the Gr. 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds. So, where are we now? Which Anneau d’Oro shows up Saturday? Will it be the one that finished second to champion Storm the Court in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and then was beaten a mere head by Thousand Words in the Gr. 2 Los Alamitos Futurity, or will it be the colt that checked in ninth of 11 in the Risen Star? Since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile hasn’t been a very productive race and Thousand Words hasn’t continued to improve, and since this fellow hasn’t done anything at three, we’ll have to make him beat us in here. Probably will use him in exotics as a ‘sanity’ play.

9. Winning Impression (Stewart/Leparoux) - 20/1

If it rains Saturday, this guy’s chances might improve. He’s got two wins over ‘sloppy’ surfaces. Unfortunately, he was disqualified from his latest triumph for drifting in. He’ll need to advance from that performance, but he’s in reasonable form and a big price, especially if it rains. Maybe a lower rung exotic inhabitant.

10. Crypto Cash (McPeek/Lanerie) - 30/1

Here’s a real confirmed closer who’s passed at least one foe in the stretch in four out of five races. There’s not an abundance of speed in this race and the Oaklawn surface doesn’t really favor late runners, but this guy could pick up some tired critters late to round out exotic positions. Note a nice :59 2/5 work at Keeneland two works back. Also, trainer McPeek has a knack for having horses hit at big prices.

11. Basin (Asmussen/Santana Jr.) - 6/1

Thought this one was the goods last out in the Oaklawn Stakes at nearly 7/2. Boy, was I wrong! Basin broke from the rail, saved ground in fourth most of the way, was shuffled a bit and then had no answer late. Positively, he was relatively close to an early hot pace and didn’t completely pack it in through the stretch…but still. Add that performance to a well-beaten third in the Gr. 2 Rebel Stakes and I sense a possible developing sophomore trend: close but no cigar. At two, he won two of three races (was beaten a mere nose first out), including the Gr. 1 Hopeful Stakes over a ‘sloppy’ Saratoga strip. The stable’s top jock takes over and you can expect Basin to be closer to the early pace, but an in-the-money finish is the best we see.

One to Beat:

#1-Charlatan - Because he will be such a short price to win, players must find another way to use him—perhaps as a ‘free bingo square’ in a multi-race wager, or as the first or second leg of a daily double or as the anchor in the lead-off spot of an exacta, trifecta or superfecta.

Should Run Well:

#4 Gouverneur Morris - He’s clearly the second fastest in here and hails from a barn that does historically well in these ‘Derby prep’ races. His grinding running style just doesn’t inspire much passion.

Question Marks:

#8 Anneau d’Or - Threatened to be a good one at two. Is 0-for-1 in fulfilling that promise at three. Bounce back here with a good one?
#11 Basin - Another with much promise at two and not much fulfilling at three. His last was just fair.

Suggested Plays:

$2 Trifecta ($24)

First: #1
Second: #4, #8, #11
Third: #4, #8, #9, #10 #11

$.50 Trifecta ($15)

First: #1
Second: #4, #8, #9, #10, #11
Third: #2, #3, #4, #8, #9, #10, #11


Oaklawn Park—Race 13—Arkansas Derby Grade 1 (Second Division)

1. Finnick the Fierce (Hernandez/Garcia) - 30/1

This guy is a trier who almost shocked the world at nearly 88-1 when second behind Silver Prospector in the ‘sloppy’ 2019 GR. 2 Kentucky Jockey Club. A troubled third in that race, a head back, was eventual Florida Derby winner Tiz the Law. ‘Finnick will be a big price in here and will need to do much better than he ever has before. If it rains, he moves up a bit.

2. Saratogian (Brisset/Talamo) - 50/1

Not quite ‘Spa Season.’

3. Storm the Court (Eurton/Prat) - 12/1

He’s the reigning 2-year-old champ but is zero for two starts at three. He was fourth in the Gr. 2 San Vicente behind winner #5 Nadal and third behind another Baffert player Authentic in the Gr. 2 San Felipe. Both of those races were decent tries and a bit better than his 2-year-old races. While the BC Juvenile has not produced any standouts this year, this guy has shown improvement. He’s a possible win candidate and a definite in-the-money use.

4. King Guillermo (Avila/Camacho) - 4/1

He upset the applecart last out with a stunning, nearly five-length victory at 49-1 in the Gr. 2 Tampa Bay Derby. That effort came out of nowhere and is almost too good to be believed. Going into the Tampa Bay Derby he had one win and a third in the Pulpit Stakes on the Gulfstream turf. With just three previous races, all at age two, he was eligible to improve but his forward jump was quite dramatic and, according to Thoro-Graph figures, on par with Arkansas Derby first-division heavy-favorite Charlatan’s initial performance. King Guillermo is not likely to run that well again, but he may not need to. Expect him to be kept close to the early pace if not on the lead, however, he won’t gallop along early as easily as he did last time. He could be used a bit defensively, but brave players will take stands against him.

5. Nadal (Baffert/Rosario) - 6/5

Unbeaten in three starts, this son of Blame is not flashy and doesn’t win races by wide margins. He’s got speed and, like most Baffert runners, probably will use it. #4 King Guillermo, another possible speed horse, is drawn inside him. Nadal will attempt to outrun him into the first turn. #11 Wells Bayou also ought to show some speed from the outside, but probably will have to go faster than he prefers to keep up with Nadal. What happens out of the gate and in the first quarter mile will reveal a lot about how they finish in this race. If Nadal is able to clear this field in a reasonably comfortable fashion, he will be difficult to beat. However, if #4 King Guillermo or #11 Wells Bayou pressure him early, things could get interesting late. Nadal’s a fighter and has overcome pace-pressure to win before, but this is a mile and one-eighth against a much deeper bunch. Nadal has been working well at Santa Anita for Baffert with three bullets—two at five and one at six furlongs—and he won his only start over this track—Gr. 2 Rebel-- in the slop last out. He’s the one to beat, but he’s nowhere near as dominant as barn-mate Charlatan is in the other division.

6. Code Runner (Asmussen/Elliott) - 50/1

He’s actually only finished first once in eight races; he was moved up to first via disqualification in another win. He doesn’t seem quite fast enough but is sharp. Still, he’s difficult to like.

7. Silver Prospector (Asmussen/Santana Jr.) - 6/1

The most experienced runner in the field with nine starts, this son of Declaration of War had a troubled trip last out in the Gr. 2 Rebel Stakes when sixth behind #5 Nadal. Before that he won three of his most recent six starts—a maiden, the Gr. 2 Kentucky Jockey Club and the Gr. 3 Southwest Stakes. He has a sparkling bullet :59 flat work at Oaklawn for a Hall-of-Fame trainer not known to work horses fast. He usually comes from off the pace but doesn’t need to be far back in the field. He has one race out of nine that appears fast enough to win this, but three of his last four races have come over ‘off’ tracks. His best was over a ‘fast’ surface. Plus, his closing style could be effective if things get hot up front.

8. Fast Enough (Beccera/Baze) - 20/1 *SCRATCHED*

This Cal-bred son of Eddington has made just three starts—two wins and a third. The show effort came last out in the seven-furlong Gr. 2 San Vicente Stakes, just two lengths behind favored #5 Nadal. His first start, a maiden state-bred score at Santa Anita going four and one-half furlongs, and the Cal Cup Derby at a mile and one-sixteenth are his two wins. He will need to improve off what he’s previously done, but he’s only had three races, so there’s upside. He’s been away from the races since Feb. 9.

9. Taishan (Baltas/Cohen) - 15/1

Here’s an interesting runner that appears to be improving. He’s already had four starts at age three and comes back relatively quickly from a third-place finish in the ‘sloppy’ Oaklawn Stakes at a mile and one-eighth. Last out, he chased a hot early pace, made a sweeping early move to the lead and then faded to third nearly four lengths behind the winner and over three lengths behind runner-up #10 Farmington Road. That effort appears worse than it actually was. Taishan also has finished behind #7 Silver Prospector and #11 Wells Bayou. Those past performance lines will guarantee a decent price on this guy. He should be racing around fifth early, ahead of the deep closers and get first run at the leaders. Top jock Rosario departs for the mount on Nadal and replacement David Cohen knows his way around the Hot Springs oval. Taishan’s chances seem much better than the possibly 15-1 or more offered on the tote.

10. Farmington Road (Pletcher/Castellano) - 8/1

He’s never taken a backward step, according to Thoro-Graph figures, and is ranked just a bit behind favored #5 Nadal. Last out, blinkers were added and he finished in front of #9 Taishan in the Oaklawn Stakes where the hot early pace there favored his closing kick. Will he enjoy the same advantage Saturday? Maybe. Maybe not. That’s one reason they call it gambling. He only has a maiden win to his credit, but was a closing fourth in the Gr. 2 Risen Star, also at a mile and one-eighth. He’s been a bit unlucky in recent post-position draws—10 of 11 two back, 12 of 13 last out and 10 of 11 here. His connections are impeccable and further improvement is not impossible. He’s a legitimate in-the-money player.

11. Wells Bayou (Cox/Geroux) - 6/1

This winner of three of five starts last out enjoyed a perfect, front-running scamper over foes in the Louisiana Derby at a mile and three-sixteenths. Jockey Florent Geroux asked him for speed out of the gate and rated him expertly. This time things will be a bit different early. If Wells Bayou is to take control of this race early, he will need to outrun #5 Nadal and #4 King Guillermo and that won’t be easy. His last two races fit figure-wise but this pace scenario is not as attractive. #7 Silver Prospector was able to nail Wells Bayou near the finish of the GR. 3 Southwest Stakes two races back. Don’t like this one much on the ‘win’ end, but he has to be respected in exotics as he’s been first or second in four-out-of-five.

One to Beat:

#5 Nadal - Early pace battle decides everything. If he makes a relatively easy lead, he will be tough. If he sits just off #4 King Guillermo, he should be able to overhaul that one. If #4 King Guillermo and #11 Wells Bayou force him to go too fast early, the race will set up for an off-the-pace type.

Should Run Well:

#9 Taishan - Could outrun his huge odds. It appeared that he couldn’t get a mile and one-eighth last out, but that may have been a result of an early move into a hot pace. At a big price it’s worth taking a chance on the latter being the case. He should get first run on the closers.

Others Worth Attention:

#3 Storm the Court - ‘Gotta knock the reigning champ out to win the crown. He’s been on the ropes twice this year, but still is in there fighting. Respect.
#7 Silver Prospector - If the pace gets hot up front, he will be running late.
#10 Farmington Road - Another who will be closing at the end. He’s made steady improvement for a trainer who’s great at developing young horses.

Question Marks:

#4 King Guillermo - If he repeats his last race, he wins. Don’t think he will do that, because it was a huge effort and the pace picture doesn’t favor him this time. On the other hand, he has the fastest last race in here, has had plenty of time to recover, and has had only four career starts—two of them on turf. Lots of questions.
#11 Wells Bayou - He will not enjoy a pace advantage like he did in the Louisiana Derby. If he can overcome that hurdle, he fits for an in-the-money spot.

Suggested Plays:

$.50 Trifecta ($25) –Comfortable Pace

First: #4, #5
Second: #3, #4, #5, #7, #9, #11
Third: #3, #4, #5, #7, #9, #10, #11

$.50 Trifecta ($22.50)—Hot Pace

First: #7, #9, #10
Second: #5, #7, #9, #10
Third: #3, #4, #5, #7, #9, #10, #11

Great Luck. Stay Safe. Race On!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

Arkansas Derby Picks 5/2

Sat May 02, 2020 6:31 am
The Arkansas Derby has two races this year and split the horses in two divisions. I have picked both of those races and two from Tampa Bay Downs. Yesterday we hit the 4-1 exacta in Race 8 at Gulfstream and Spend Spend Spend won it in Oaklawn Race 10. Good luck.

Tampa Bay Race 2
#4 Nikki Bella $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 4-7-1

Tampa Bay Race 5
#2 Catsoutofthebag $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 2-1-6

Oaklawn Race 11
#1 Charlatan $20 win
$2 exacta box 1-9-11

Oaklawn Race 13
#7 Silver Prospector $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 7-5-10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks
1.	NSA(The Legend)	HORSES – Australia A Race 2: #3 to WIN
2.	Gameday Network	HORSES – Gulfstream Park Race 7: #6 to WIN
3.	VegasSI.com	HORSES – Gulfstream Park Race 1: #9 to WIN
4.	Vegas Line Crushers	HORSES – Australia A Race 8: #13 to WIN
5.	Sports Action 365	HORSES – Gulfstream Park Race 8: #4 to WIN
6.	Point Spread Report	HORSES – Australia B Race 6: #1 to WIN
7.	Lou Panelli	HORSES – Gulfstream Park Race 3: #5 to WIN
8.	Gerry “Big Cat” Andino	HORSES – Australia B Race 5: #16 to WIN
9.	VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club	HORSES – Oaklawn Park Race 6: #9 to WIN
10.	William E. Stockton	HORSES – Australia A Race 1: #3 to WIN
11.	Vincent Pioli	HORSES – Remington Park Race 7: #4 to WIN
12.	Steve “Scoop” Kendall	HORSES – Oaklawn Park Race 2: #2 to WIN
13.	SCORE	HORSES – Australia A Race 7: #11 to WIN
14.	East Coast Line Movers	HORSES – Remington Park Race 3: #6 to WIN
15.	Tony Campone	HORSES – Australia B Race 3: #11 to WIN
16.	Chicago Sports Group	HORSES – Remington Park Race 2: #1 to WIN
17.	Hollywood Sportsline	HORSES – Australia B Race 8: #13 to WIN
18.	VIP Action	HORSES – Australia A Race 6: #8 to WIN
19.	South Beach Sports	HORSES – Oaklawn Park Race 5: #12 to WIN
20.	Las Vegas Sports Commission	HORSES – Australia C Race 3: #3 to WIN
21.	NY Players Club	HORSES – Australia A Race 4: #17 to WIN
22.	Fred Callahan	HORSES – Australia C Race 6: #10 to WIN
23.	Las Vegas Private CEO Club	HORSES – Australia C Race 7: #3 to WIN
24.	Michigan Sports	HORSES – Australia B Race 2: #18 to WIN
25.	National Consensus Report	HORSES – Australia C Race 5: #4 to WIN

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baffert Holds Strong Hand in Split Arkansas Derby

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April 29, 2020 | By Jon White
Bob Baffert no doubt hopes it goes better for him at Oaklawn Park this Saturday than it did in last year’s Rebel Stakes.

When the 2019 Rebel attracted 19 entries, Oaklawn split the race into two divisions. Baffert sent out the odds-on favorite in each division. They both narrowly lost, causing their Hall of Fame trainer to figuratively pull his white hair out.

In the first division, Baffert-trained Improbable was backed down to 2-5. He finished second, losing by only a neck to 8-1 Long Range Toddy.

In the second division, Baffert-trained Game Winner was sent away at 1-2. He finished second, losing by a scant nose to 4-1 Omaha Beach.

When this Saturday’s Grade I Arkansas Derby enticed 22 entries, Oaklawn split it into two divisions. Each division is headed by a Baffert-trained undefeated colt. Charlatan goes in the first division and Nadal runs in the second division.

Going into the Arkansas Derby, Charlatan ranks No. 1 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10. Nadal is No. 2.

Here is my current Top 10 for the Sept. 5 Kentucky Derby:

1. Charlatan
2. Nadal
3. Tiz the Law
4. Honor A.P.
5. Authentic
6. Maxfield
7. Sole Volante
8. Ete Indien
9. King Guillermo
10. Wells Bayou

Charlatan, who is two for two, has been established as the even-money favorite on the morning line in the first division of the Arkansas Derby. Nadal, three for three, is the 5-2 morning-line favorite in the second division.

The way I see it, Charlatan is an absolute lock. I’d say you probably have a much better chance of finding some precious toilet paper on a store’s shelf than any of Charlatan’s foes outrunning him Saturday.

As for Nadal, I think he will be very tough this Saturday, though his task is quite a bit tougher than Charlatan’s. There seems to be a substantial imbalance of quality in the two divisions. It appears to me that Nadal is facing much better competition than Charlatan.

In case you were wondering, the Arkansas Derby was first run in 1936. This will be only the second time this race has been split into two divisions. The only other time it happened was in 1960. That’s back when Dwight D. Eisenhower occupied the White House. The average price for a gallon of gas in 1960 was 20 cents. When the two divisions of the Arkansas Derby were run in March, the newly released movie “Psycho” was a hit in theaters.

Below are Oaklawn’s morning-line prices, plus the odds I tweeted last Sunday for the first division of Saturday’s Arkansas Derby (listed in post position order, with Charlatan starting from post 1):

ML - My Odds - Horse

1-1 3-5 Charlatan
20-1 30-1 My Friends Beer
30-1 50-1 Mo Mosa
9-2 5-1 Gouverneur Morris
30-1 50-1 Jungle Runner
8-1 12-1 Shooters Shoot*
20-1 20-1 Wrecking Crew
6-1 8-1 Anneau d’Or
15-1 20-1 Winning Impression
20-1 30-1 Crypto Cash
8-1 6-1 Basin

*Reportedly will be scratched

Peter Eurton said Tuesday that he would be scratching Shooters Shoot because the colt had developed a fever.

These are my selections for the first division:

1. Charlatan
2. Gouverneur Morris
3. Basin
4. Anneau d’Or

Charlatan towers over the field in the first division from a Beyer Speed Figure standpoint.

In Charlatan’s career debut on Feb. 16 at Santa Anita Park, he burst on the scene with a 5 3/4-length maiden victory in a six-furlong race. He zipped the distance 1:08.85.

Following Charlatan’s dazzling debut, he won a one-mile allowance/optional claiming race at Santa Anita on March 14 in isolated splendor by 10 1/4 lengths.

Charlatan recorded a 105 Beyer Speed Figure in his debut, then a 106 on March 14. These are the two highest Beyer Speed Figures posted by a 3-year-old so far this year.

Tiz the Law is the only other 3-year-old to have posted a triple-digit Beyer this year. When he won Gulfstream Park’s Grade III Holy Bull Stakes by three lengths at 1 1/16 miles on Feb. 1, Tiz the Law was credited with a 100 Beyer.

While Charlatan boasts Beyers of 105 and 106 in his two races to date, no one else in the first division of the Arkansas Derby has ever registered a triple-digit figure.

Shooters Shoot and Anneau d’Or are the only entrants other than Charlatan in the first division to have ever recorded a Beyer Speed Figure of 90 or higher. Shooters Shoot had a pair of 92 Beyers to his credit. Anneau d’Or has recorded a 91 Beyer.

As if Charlatan did not already look practically unbeatable this Saturday, the Kentucky-bred Speightstown colt now will not even have to worry about Shooters Shoot.

The defection of Shooters Shoot is especially helpful to Charlatan in terms of the pace. Shooters Shoot is the sort who might have been able to be a thorn in Charlatan’s side early. Without Shooters Shoot in the race, it looks like Charlatan will be able to get loose on the lead right away and set an uncontested pace. That will make him mighty difficult to catch.

Anneau d’Or recorded a 91 Beyer Speed Figure when he narrowly lost the Grade II Los Alamitos Futurity last Dec. 7. Prior to that, Anneau d’Or came away with an 86 Beyer when he narrowly lost the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita on Nov. 1.

What diminishes the enthusiasm of many for Anneau d’Or in the Arkansas Derby is his poor performance in his 2020 debut. He finished ninth as an even-money favorite in a division of the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots on Feb. 15.

Will Anneau d’Or rebound off his surprisingly dreadful effort in the Risen Star? It’s possible. He appears to have trained well at Golden Gate Fields leading up to the Arkansas Derby. But the problem is, even if he does run much better this time, his career-best 91 Beyer pales in comparison to Charlatan’s 105 and 106.

I liked Gouverneur Morris a lot last year following his nine-length debut win in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden race contested over a sloppy track at Saratoga on Sept. 2. He recorded an 83 Beyer Speed Figure that day.

In Gouverneur Morris’ only subsequent start last year, he was sent away as the 3-2 favorite in the Grade I Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland on Oct. 5. Yes, Gouverneur Morris ran well enough to finish second, but he was no match for 5 1/2-length victor Maxfield.

Gouverneur Morris has raced twice this year. He won at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 14, then finished fourth in the Grade I Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. He received an 88 Beyer in each of those two races.

A big problem for Gouverneur Morris this Saturday is the big disparity in his two 88 Beyers this year vs. Charlatan’s 105 and 106.

I have not been quite as bullish on the Gouverneur as many others. He has ranked pretty high on various Kentucky Derby lists. For example, BloodHorse’s Steve Haskin has him at No. 6 on his Derby Dozen for this week. But Gouverneur Morris has not yet been on any of my weekly Kentucky Derby Top 10 lists that began early in January.

I am perfectly willing to put Gouverneur Morris on my Kentucky Top 10 next week should he give a good account of himself in the Arkansas Derby. Of course, a victory this Saturday would make him a slam-dunk to appear on next week’s Top 10.

I do think Gouverneur Morris’ most recent Thoro-Graph number gives him a better shot to win Saturday than his Beyers.

As I have stated in the past, I believe Beyer Speed Figures are a valuable tool for horseplayers. If I didn’t think Beyers were helpful, I would not refer to them as often as I do. But I also believe Thoro-Graph numbers are much better than Beyers.

In terms of Beyer Speed Figures, a higher number is better than a lower one. The opposite is true regarding Thoro-Graph numbers.

The winner of a race will never get a lower Beyer Speed Figure than the horse who finished second, the horse who finished second will never get a lower Beyer than the horse who finished third, and so on down through the order of finish.

In the case of a Thoro-Graph number, a horse who finishes second, or even lower, can get a better number than the winner. This is one of the reasons I like Thoro-Graph so much. I regard a Thoro-Graph number as a much more realistic evaluation of a horse’s performance than a Beyer. Thoro-Graph’s approach reflects the simple truth that the winner is not always the horse who ran the best race.

Beyer Speed Figures are based primarily on the time of the race relative to the track variant. The variant is an assessment of a track surface. Was the surface on which the race was run normal? If not, how much faster or slower than normal was the surface? The variant is a tool in which one can put the time of a race into perspective as opposed to raw time.

Those who calculate Beyers will make adjustments as they deem necessary in order to come up with what they feel is the most accurate figure. One way the Beyer-makers do this is by keeping an eye on how each horse’s figure in a race compares to its previous performances. When a figure looks out of whack, it will be tweaked to make it more realistic in the judgment of the Beyer-maker.

A primary reason I believe a Thoro-Graph number is better than a Beyer Speed Figure is the Thoro-Graph number takes many more factors into account. According to Thoro-Graph, “each number on a sheet represents a performance rating arrived at by using time of the race, beaten lengths, ground lost or saved on the turns, weight carried, and any effects wind conditions had on the time of the race.”

As mentioned earlier, Gouverneur Morris recorded an 88 Beyer Speed Figure in his most recent start when fourth in the Florida Derby. The 88 suggests it is almost a mission impossible for Gouverneur Morris to beat Charlatan with his gaudy 105 and 106 Beyers.

But Gouverneur Morris’ Florida Derby performance received quite a bit more respect from Thoro-Graph than from the Beyer team.

Gouverneur Morris’ Thoro-Graph number for the Florida Derby was a 2. That puts him more in the ballpark with Charlatan than the Beyers. Charlatan’s two Thoro-Graph numbers are 0 for his debut and 1/4 for his second race.

Charlatan’s Beyers of 105 and 106 compare favorably to Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify.

American Pharoah swept the Triple Crown in 2015. While Charlatan has recorded Beyers of 105 and 106 in his first two career starts, American Pharoah did not receive a Beyer Speed Figure of 106 or higher until his ninth career start.

During American Pharoah’s Triple Crown run, his Beyers were 105 in the Kentucky Derby, 102 in the Preakness Stakes and 105 in the Belmont Stakes.

Charlatan’s 105 and 106 Beyers also are superior to the 104 and 101 figures for Justify in the first two starts of his six-race career in which he never lost.

After Justify’s first two races, he recorded Beyer Speed Figures of 107 in the Santa Anita Derby, 103 in the Kentucky Derby, 97 in the Preakness and 101 in the Belmont.

A LOOK AT THE SECOND DIVISION

Nadal is a two-time graded stakes winner. He took Santa Anita’s Grade II San Vicente Stakes on Feb. 9, then got the job done in Oaklawn’s Rebel Stakes on a sloppy track March 14. He won each of those races by three-quarters of a length.

Below are Oaklawn’s morning-line prices, plus the odds I tweeted last Sunday for the second division of Saturday’s Arkansas Derby (listed in post position order, with Finnick the Fierce breaking from post 1):

ML - My Odds - Horse

15-1 30-1 Finnick the Fierce
50-1 50-1 Saratogian
6-1 12-1 Storm the Court
3-1 4-1 King Guillermo
5-2 6-5 Nadal
50-1 50-1 Code Runner
10-1 6-1 Silver Prospector
12-1 20-1 Fast Enough*
15-1 15-1 Taishan
12-1 8-1 Farmington Road
7-2 6-1 Wells Bayou

*Reportedly will be scratched

Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman reported Tuesday that Fast Enough will miss the Arkansas Derby “after emerging from his final work on Sunday with an injury.” Fast Enough drilled four furlongs in :47.00 at Santa Anita on Sunday, but he was not put on the plane to Arkansas early Tuesday because of a shin injury. It was a shin issue that sidelined Fast Enough for the remainder of 2019 after he had won a Santa Anita maiden race by 3 3/4 lengths at first asking on May 31.

These are my selections for the second division of the Arkansas Derby:

1. Nadal
2. King Guillermo
3. Silver Prospector
4. Wells Bayou

I love Nadal in the Arkansas Derby. Not only do I see him having an excellent chance of winning the race, he almost certainly is going to be a better price in the wagering Saturday than Charlatan.

I expect Nadal will sit off the early pace this time, unlike his first three races. The way Baffert has been training Nadal at Santa Anita gives every indication to me that the game plan for this Saturday is to have the big colt come from off the pace.

I think Nadal’s recent workouts at Santa Anita have been terrific. In his April 15, April 20 and April 26 drills, he has relaxed beautifully early when sitting back off a workmate. And in all three workouts, he came home down the lane with gusto.

It seems to me that many have not given Nadal the credit he deserved for his victories in Santa Anita’s Grade II San Vicente Stakes on Feb. 9 and Oaklawn’s Grade II Rebel Stakes on a sloppy track March 14. That’s probably because he won both races by three-quarters of a length rather by than a sizable margin. But the belief here is he actually ran much better on both occasions than his margin of victory would suggest.

Whereas I anticipate Nadal probably will be asked to come from off the pace this Saturday, that certainly was not the case in the seven-furlong San Vicente.

Baffert said he told jockey Joel Rosario before the San Vicente, “Don’t get cute, just go. We can rate him some other day.”

Nadal ended up having to run hard -- very hard -- from start to finish. The big Kentucky-bred son of Blame never, ever got a breather. It is not easy for any horse to run hard all the way in a seven-furlong race and still win, but it’s especially so when the horse had only one prior start under his belt.

Rosario, riding to his instructions, gunned Nadal away from the gate. Nadal and Ginobili vied for the lead all the way down the backstretch, all the way around the far turn and all the way down the lane. Nadal found a way to prevail by three-quarters of a length at the end of the prolonged duel.

Nadal’s final furlong in :13.54 admittedly left something to be desired. But the truth is he showed a lot just to win the race despite being involved in a pace that would cause many to wilt. The splits of :21.81, :44.09 and 1:09.05 were especially draining on a slower-than-it-used-to-be Santa Anita main track.

Additionally, Baffert said after the San Vicente that he had trained Nadal “light” for the race. At the top of the stretch, when Nadal and Ginobili were locked in a fierce battle for the lead, the white-haired trainer admitted that he thought Nadal was going to get beat. According to Baffert, Nadal won the San Vicente on sheer talent.

“He had to gut it out, so he’s got a good foundation now,” Baffert said after the race. “This should set him up pretty good. I think we’ll go to the Rebel.”

Nadal did indeed go to the Rebel for his next race. The game plan for the Rebel was to once again send Nadal early, a strategy that was dictated by Nadal drawing post 1.

It took a very special colt to do what Nadal did to still win the Rebel after what was asked of him early. As in the San Vicente, he had to run hard for every step of the race. This time it was a 1 1/16-mile race.

In the run to the first turn, Nadal vied for the early advantage with No Parole. No Parole had come into the race having won all three of his career starts by a combined 34 lengths, albeit in races restricted to Louisiana-breds.

On the first turn, a fresh American Theorem, who was making his 2020 debut, rushed up to engage Nadal and No Parole for the lead. The preliminary fractions were swift: :22.89 and :46.00.

After being involved in such a hot early pace, both American Theorem and No Parole faltered badly in the final quarter of a mile. American Theorem lost by 27 1/4 lengths. No Parole got beat by 49 lengths.

Interestingly, after Nadal clobbered No Parole in the Rebel, No Parole bounced back last Friday to win a six-furlong allowance/optional claiming sprint by 2 1/4 lengths at Oaklawn.

Considering the early fractions in the Rebel, Nadal had every right to throw in the towel in the last quarter of a mile like American Theorem and No Parole did. But Nadal came home well enough to win, though not before having to withstand bids from Three Technique and Silver Prospector near the top of the lane, then from Excession in deep stretch.

Excession gave it a fine try at odds of 82-1, but he was not able to pull off the upset. Nadal proved a punctual 9-10 favorite. After the finish, Nadal remained in front while galloping out, which also was impressive considering how hard he had run during the entire race.

Nadal’s Rebel triumph was all the more praiseworthy considering it was his first race around two turns, his first race on a wet track and his first race away from Santa Anita.

As for Nadal’s Arkansas Derby opponents, I think Silver Prospector’s five-furlong bullet drill in :59.00 at Oaklawn on April 18 suggests he should not be taken lightly Saturday. A clocking like that really catches the eye when Steve Asmussen is the trainer. You rarely see such a fast workout for a horse conditioned by the Hall of Famer. It indicates to me that Silver Prospector could not be coming into the Arkansas Derby any better.

Granted, Silver Prospector needs to turn it around after finishing sixth, 12 lengths behind Nadal, in the Rebel. But Silver Prospector’s victory in Oaklawn’s Grade III Southwest Stakes on Feb. 17 gives him a license to prove a tough customer this Saturday.

Silver Prospector also was good enough to win the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs last Nov. 30. In that 1 1/16-mile affair, the vanquished included Tiz the Law, who finished third. Tiz the Law, who is two for two this year, won the Grade III Holy Bull on Feb. 1 and Grade I Florida Derby on March 28, both at Gulfstream.

King Guillermo has the look of a major player in the Arkansas Derby off his sparkling victory in the Grade II Tampa Bay Derby in his 2020 debut on March 7. He won by 4 3/4 lengths at odds of 49-1.

A concern I have regarding King Guillermo, though, is Tampa Bay Downs’ main track is something of a quirky surface. Sometimes a horse runs a biggie on that track, but then does not fare nearly as well when racing on a different surface.

When Silver Prospector took the Southwest, the runner-up was Wells Bayou. Wells Bayou then won the Grade II Louisiana Derby at 1 3/16 miles in wire-to-wire fashion by 1 1/2 lengths on March 21.

I slightly downgrade Wells Bayou’s Louisiana Derby win because did have it all his own way on the front end early. It’s doubtful he will get such a favorable pace scenario this time. That’s one of the reasons I am not on his bandwagon for the Arkansas Derby.

Nadal’s top Beyer Speed Figure is a 98. I think he is capable of doing better in that regard. Unlike Charlatan, Nadal certainly does not have a substantial Beyer advantage Saturday.

King Guillermo recorded a 99 Beyer Speed Figure when he won the Tampa Bay Derby. Silver Prospector posted a 97 Beyer when victorious in the Southwest. When Wells Bayou won the Louisiana Derby, he was credited with a 96 Beyer.

VIRTUAL KENTUCKY DERBY ON NBC SATURDAY

The Kentucky Derby originally was scheduled to be held this Saturday, but it has been moved to Sept. 5 due to the coronavirus pandemic.

With the Kentucky Derby now to be run later in the year, NBC Sports presents a special broadcast this Saturday beginning at 3 p.m. ET that will take a look back at American Pharoah’s 2015 Kentucky Derby victory. American Pharoah subsequently won the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes to sweep this country’s coveted Triple Crown, a feat that had not been accomplished since Secretariat in 1973.

Speaking of Secretariat, when I was a senior in high school in 1973, I wrote this about Secretariat in my high school newspaper, the Lewis and Clark Journal, on March 22, well before the Kentucky Derby:

“Going out on a limb and living dangerously, I dare say that 1973 will be a historic year as Secretariat will become the first Triple Crown winner since the great Citation in 1948.”

NBC’s broadcast Saturday will feature Churchill Downs’ first-ever virtual horse race -- the Kentucky Derby: Triple Crown Showdown. It’s a computer-simulated version of a race consisting of the 13 Triple Crown winners. Created by Inspired Entertainment, this virtual race will use data algorithms, including handicapping information about each horse, to determine the probability of the finish positions.

I am predicting Secretariat will win the virtual race.

The late, great Daily Racing Form writer Charles Hatton in 1973 proclaimed Secretariat to be the Horse of the Century. Hatton, the man who was playing hooky when he saw Sotemia at Churchill Downs in 1912 set the world record of 7:12 4/5 for four miles that still stands today, categorially believed Secretariat was superior to even mighty Man o’ War, let alone Citation, et al.

If Secretariat somehow doesn’t win Churchill’s virtual race, the rumble of ground shaking beneath your feet will be because Hatton is turning over in his grave.

THIS WEEK’S NTRA POLLS

Below is the Top 10 for this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 378 Midnight Bisou (29)
2. 307 Mucho Gusto
3. 194 Zulu Alpha (1)
4. 178 Ce Ce
5. 161 Mr Freeze
6. 128 Maximum Security (7)
7. 110 Tom’s d’Etat
8. 106 By My Standards
9. 95 Combatant
10. 94 Whitmore

Tiz the Law, who ranks 13th, received two first-place votes in the Top Thoroughbred Poll. He maintains the top spot in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll.

Below is the Top 10 for this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 379 Tiz the Law (33)
2. 329 Authentic (3)
3. 308 Nadal (1)
4. 230 Charlatan (2)
5. 179 Wells Bayou
6. 167 Honor A.P.
7. 123 Ete Indien
8. 109 Sole Volante
9. 81 King Guillermo
10. 69 Maxfield

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