Service Plays Wednesday 5/6/20

**Youngcatx21** · 05-05-2020, 02:02 PM

KBO picks?

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-06-2020, 06:53 AM

ESL Road to Rio: ORDER +1.5 v Renegades @ 2.176/+118 (3 Units)
ESL Road to Rio: ORDER ML v Renegades @ 5.60/+460 (0.5 Unit)
-Don't understand this line one bit. Sure Renegades is the second best Aussie team behind 100 Thieves but how much weight does that really hold? ORDER still has the likes of Rickeh, USTILO, and aliStair on their roster all of who are top AU talent. Throw in a couple young hungry players like Valiance and J1rah and I don't understand one bit why this line is set this way. I think this should be WAY down in the realm of ORDER +200 ML

ESL Road to Rio: Vitality -1.5 v ENCE @ 2.70/+170 (3 Units)
-Playing bigger than usual for odds like this but I LOVE the upside this play has. Yes, Vitality have looked shaky at times but the way the map pool plays out for these two teams sets up such a good opportunity for Vitality to 2-0 this series. The absolute crutch for ENCE since losing Aleksib has been one map: Train. Conveniently, that's the one map that Vitality ban no matter the opponent. Factor in ENCE permabanning a weaker-ish map for Vitality in Vertigo and we have 5 remaining maps with Mirage/Inferno/Nuke/Overpass/Dust2. All of which I favor Vitality on pretty heavily. Also a very favorable matchup in the AWPing department with ZywOo facing up against allu. Shox has been playing very well and misutaaa is starting to fit into this lineup... Vitality 2-0 this FAR more often than the odds imply (37%)

LootLeague: Nordavind ML v GODSENT @ 2.27/+127 (2.5 Units)
-Another mismatch in terms of motivation to me. You have one team who is starting to find a groove and gel together with Nordavind going up against another team that can't seem to close out any match and has a clear lack of cohesion in the late round calls with GODSENT. Couple that with the fact that GODSENT are now falling in the Road to Rio standings and have a HUGE match on Friday against mousesports, I doubt their heads will be fully in this one. No respectable team at this level blatantly throws but there's no disputing they're going to have a lack of motivation for this match compared to their do or die game on Friday versus a far more intimidating opponent. Wouldn't be surprised if they penetrate off this game and go start to prep for Mouz right after it.

BLAST Rising: Apeks ML v Japaleno @ 1.888/-113 (2 Units)
-Those who've been around for months know how shit this Japaleno team is. Decent names on the roster but have forever just ran around the map and hoped for the best it seems. Maybe that'll change, but I'll bet against it not having changed too much. Apeks have been playing match after match after match and getting a ton of reps in with one another and got dennis standing in for them with adds a ton of veteran leadership if things start to go wrong.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-06-2020, 06:56 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #2

#7 Wowza Man	Turf runner has some poor main track form showing, but he's really picked up his game in his two starts for Morrow, drops in class, and is likely a better horse than he was then; look out.
#4 Happy Guy	Versatile sort got run off his feet a bit last time but ran on well to be 2nd, and aside from the wide dud two-back, his form has been very solid, if underwhelming; seems the one to beat.
#5 Alvarado	Homebred goes for a sharp Caruso barn, and while it's 0-for-8 with firsters, there's a slew of works here, and, as important as anything, the rest of these aren't much; would be no surprise.
Race Summary	There's little doubt the pick has been better on the grass, but he also seems to be a new horse since the barn switch too, which means he might be ready to run a lot better on dirt this time, so play him to win and place, and especially to kick off the early Pk4 as well, as he won't have to freak to handle a crew that is extremely modest on paper.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #4

#6 Gogo Shoes	Heavy hitter went across the state to be 4th to a repeat winner at GP, but she's back with friends here, drew well to be outside the chalk, and will be a better price too; love her chances here.
#3 Hopeful Growth	The chalk was a fine 2nd in her return from a long break, and first against winners too, so she could be tighter here, but the pick will be on her from the outside the entire way; second-best.
#7 Judy's Shoes	Stalker will get overlooked but her last dirt race stacks up nicely with the top pair, and if they hook up early and often this miss will be there to take advantage off the far turn; worth a look.
Race Summary	You won't get rich on the 6 but they figure to bet the 3 hard, so that 5-2 ML may just stick, and therefore would warrant and aggressive win and place bet, though her real value comes in the early Pk4, and kicking off the Pk5 as well, as you can single her to maximize value, which would also give you more room to maneuver in the deeper surrounding legs, as she looks primed in this spot.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #7

#8 California Sun	Intriguing returnee hasn't been out since September and could need this, and he was eased on the dirt when last seen, but the turf romp two-back was big, his speed will play here too, and he returns as a first-time gelding as well; thinking he's live.
#6 Dynaform	The obvious one to beat looked good winning at the level last time and now meets a weaker crew, so a repeat wins this, and his three runs against similar have all been solid, so there's no reason to think he regresses today; will be a real handful.
#7 Violator	Stiff class dropper didn't fire last time but wasn't far back of the pick when 4th two-back, figures to get a more patient ride here too, which will have him just off the speed and ready to pounce when they exit the far turn; price players will land here.
Race Summary	Tab the tote on the 8, as you'd like to see him live and taking money if he's ready, and if that's the case you can play him in all the slots, though you'll get some guaranteed value by using him in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since that turf win last year would make him a big player here, and in the 6-1 range you'd be getting the right risk-reward to find out if he's still got it.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-06-2020, 06:56 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Will Rogers Downs - Race #3

#7 Polly Tiz	Can use her tactical speed to find a good spot in a race without a ton of early speed, and even if the stretchout players want to take a shot for the front, she can settle a bit and still finish.
#8 Keena	Brings solid sprint form to this one, but she has so far been a one-turn runner, and I'd be hesitant to take a short number to find out how she handles this right now.
#2 Seeing Double	Ran a good one in that minor stakes try last out, and she's just quick enough early to find a decent spot and track the pace.
Race Summary	Polly Tiz can get the right kind of trip after outrunning her 14/1 price last time out. A couple of the logical players have questions to answers, I'll take a mid-range price swing here.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #7

#2 Ransomed	Worth a little look here in a spot with a decent bit of early speed, as she has some ability to settle off the splits and let the pace players run their races before pouncing.
#5 Drip Brew	May honestly not mind much if she takes early heat after staying on to score through a :44.4 split last out. The main worry is that she only has that one gear -- go. If the other pace can bother her enough early, she's vulnerable late.
#1 Ima Discreet Lady	Will have to work out a trip from the fence, but if she does get the right run, she's there. Her early pace keeps her close, but she can tuck in behind the battling leaders and wait for a seam turning for home.
Race Summary	Ransomed should be a fair price in this one, and the hope is that she's going to get a first-over kind of trip here.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #9

#3 Lawton	Owns a high enough ceiling to get the job done with these, and he can find the right kind of spot while spying the early splits.
#6 Oil Money	Repeat of that last one would probably do the trick, but remember he was 18/1 that day and doesn't often run that big. Demand a fair price to find out if he can hold that form.
#5 Drc All Inclusive	Might get forced into a finishing trip in a spot where he's probably not quite quick enough to keep up in the early going, but that may not be a bad thing if the pace heats up and he's one of the few left running late.
Race Summary	Lawton can finish from off the speed, and that should serve him well in this group where Oil Money figures to have some company at a much shorter price than he offered when scoring last out.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-06-2020, 06:57 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Fonner Park - Race #1

#4 Retrofit	Has put down some extremely fast times going 4 furlongs and looks to be too much for these challengers.
#6 Free Music	Can get a good trip from the outside, should be able to stay in range and should be able to hold on for a piece of this.
#5 Beta Capo Song	Was 3rd to the top choice two back and seems to do his best going a half-mile; rider Martinez always seems to be a big threat.
Race Summary	Retrofit is outstanding at the shorter distances and is clearly the one to beat here; Mitchell stable has had an outstanding season and has a great chance to continue that.

Fonner Park - Race #4

#4 Bell Ringer	Improved position to 2nd in his 1st over this track and is likely to improve; ran in some tough races at Houston, including race he won by 10 on the grass. Has the class to prevail.
#3 Eastside Boy	Ran evenly in his 1st after shipping in from Fair Grounds; capable of a big effort in this N2L spot.
#1 Garbar Boy	Tired in his 1st over the local strip and likely will improve in his return; he broke his maiden at Gulfstream Park last July and didn't fare well at Tampa; chance for piece of the pie today.
Race Summary	Bell Ringer held on for the runner-up spot last out and probably needed that one on the bull ring; sitting on a big effort here.

Fonner Park - Race #5

#6 Phlash Drive	Was 4 for 4, including in the Ogataul Stakes two back and then tired badly going long vs open company; back to state-breds in a sprint and can get back to winning ways.
#5 Love At Night	Mare tired in the Runza Stakes after winning the Bold Accent and Orphan Kist Stakes in her 1st two of the year; is extremely fast and will be trouble for the males if she gets clear on the front end.
#3 Be My Shadow	Ran an even 4th in an open optional-claiming race last out and will pick up a lot of pieces; the biggest threat if pacesetters fail.
Race Summary	Phlash Drive suffered defeat for the 1st time in his latest; he gets back to a sprint and can be a strong player from the start.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-06-2020, 08:35 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers Downs

Will Rogers Downs - Race 7	Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta (.50) / Superfecta (.10) / Daily Double Pick 3 (.50) (Races 7-8-9) / Pick 4 (.50) (Races 7-10)
Handicap • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 98 • Purse: $17,050 • Post: 4:15P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES, THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. NO ENTRY FEE. NO NOMINATION FEE. WEIGHTS TO BE ASSIGNED AT THE DRAW. HIGH WEIGHTS PREFERRED.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * DRIP BREW: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff . Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. ARI GIA: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. TEE EM E YE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. IMA DISCREET LADY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
5	DRIP BREW	3/1	4/1
9	ARI GIA	7/2	6/1
6	TEE EM EYE	5/2	7/1
1	IMA DISCREET LADY	7/2	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	DRIP BREW	5	3/1	Front-runner	97	95	96.6	90.2	86.2
8	BRING IT ON HOME	8	20/1	Front-runner	89	85	87.2	71.2	57.7
9	ARI GIA	9	7/2	Front-runner	98	91	81.2	88.8	83.3
4	QUEANS ALTAR	4	20/1	Stalker	87	76	76.2	82.4	69.9
1	IMA DISCREET LADY	1	7/2	Stalker	97	95	72.8	85.4	77.4
2	RANSOMED	2	12/1	Stalker	91	84	72.6	78.0	68.5
6	TEE EM EYE	6	5/2	Stalker	96	96	68.4	91.2	87.2
3	DANCE OR STROLL	3	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	92	82	82.0	68.6	53.6
7	OBSOLETE	7	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	84	74	54.0	76.6	63.6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-06-2020, 08:35 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs - Race 5	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum) Pick 3 ($.50 minimum) (Races 5-6-7) / Pick 4 ($.50 minimum) (Races 5-6-7-8) Super High 5
Allowance • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 4 and up • CR: 85 • Purse: $20,000 • Post: 3:00P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE APRIL 6 ALLOWED 3 LBS. (MAIDEN, CLAIMING, AND STARTER RACES FOR $20,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (CONDITION ELIGIBILITY). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT ONE MILE AND FORTY YARDS.).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * STORMY D: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. FLIGHTY ALMIGHTY (GB): Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. HANIEL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. FASHION'S STAR (IRE): Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ITSHERLUCKYDAY: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50.
5	STORMY D	4/1	9/2
8	FLIGHTY ALMIGHTY (GB)	7/2	7/1
2	HANIEL	10/1	8/1
7	FASHION'S STAR (IRE)	3/1	8/1
6	ITSHERLUCKYDAY	15/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
10	UNCOMMON FACTOR	10	30/1	Front-runner	73	73	118.8	66.5	50.0
1	PEACEFUL FEELING	1	9/2	Front-runner	84	84	90.1	82.4	71.9
9	SWEETLY MAID	9	10/1	Front-runner	86	81	71.4	71.4	56.4
4	CLEAR AS DAY	4	8/1	Front-runner	84	78	64.4	71.2	57.7
11	SAPPHIRE JUBILEE	11	15/1	Stalker	87	82	75.2	82.8	68.3
5	STORMY D	5	4/1	Trailer	89	85	68.4	83.4	76.9
6	ITSHERLUCKYDAY	6	15/1	Trailer	79	78	59.6	75.0	65.5
2	HANIEL	2	10/1	Alternator/Trailer	83	76	66.8	77.8	69.8
3	ALYDARIUS	3	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	82	73	60.4	75.4	61.9

Unknown Running Style: FASHION'S STAR (IRE) (3/1) [Jockey: Gallardo Antonio A - Trainer: McGaughey III C R], FLIGHTY ALMIGHTY (GB) (7/2) [Jockey: Centeno Daniel - Trainer: Clement Christophe].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-06-2020, 08:36 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Handicap - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $17050 Class Rating: 98

FOR FILLIES AND MARES, THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. NO ENTRY FEE. NO NOMINATION FEE. WEIGHTS TO BE ASSIGNED AT THE DRAW. HIGH WEIGHTS PREFERRED.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 ARI GIA 7/2
# 5 DRIP BREW 3/1
# 6 TEE EM EYE 5/2

My selection for this event is ARI GIA. Silva has a solid 31 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. Eikleberry will almost certainly be able to get this mare to break out sharply in this contest. Should keep the good string of finish positions intact this time out. DRIP BREW - Looks like a sound candidate for the exotics. Has very good speed figures and has to be considered for a bet in this event. TEE EM EYE - Is difficult not to examine given the company run in recently. She has posted decent numbers under today's conditions and will probably fare well versus this group of horses in this race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-06-2020, 08:37 AM

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs

05/06/20, TAM, Race 6, 3.30 ET
05/06/20,TAM,6,1 1/16M [Dirt] 1:41:04 CLAIMING. Purse $10,300. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over Since April 6 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $8,000 (Races Where Entered For $6,250 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.00	4	Cpl. Dionicio	7/2	Centeno D	Bennett Gerald S.	TFEL	37.84	1.09/$1
097.57	10	What a Hoot	4-1	Gallardo A A	Granitz Anthony J.	J	37.84	1.09/$1
096.39	11	Sunshines Out	6-1	Mendez K	Azpurua. Jr. Eduardo		38.89	1.38/$1
096.29	9	Osvaldo	6-1	Allen. Jr. R D	Munoz Carlos	W	38.89	1.38/$1
095.20	6	Fledermaus	10-1	Mena R	Hemingway Ian		37.84	1.09/$1
094.95	2	Circle Away	5-1	Almeida M	Bordis Robert W.	S	38.89	1.38/$1
094.83	1	Upper Crown	10-1	Wales G	Dobber Arnoud W.		38.89	1.38/$1
094.19	5	American River (VEN)	8-1	Suarez A	McGoey Monica		38.89	1.38/$1
093.94	8	Nicole Munnings	20-1	Herrera J R	Machado Antonio		38.89	1.38/$1
092.80	7	Big Rig	15-1	Villa-Gomez H	Potts Ron G.		38.89	1.38/$1
090.27	3	America's Simmard	20-1	Romero J	Parra Hernan	C	38.89	1.38/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 33.96, ROI 0.86/$1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-06-2020, 08:37 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Fonner Park - Race #6 - Post: 6:15pm - Claiming - 4.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $3,700 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#3 FAMILY CODE (ML=5/1)
#4 TOPOFTHEMOUNTAIN (ML=4/1)

FAMILY CODE - Generally, I don't play a pony off morning drills alone, but when I see a gelding work at the same distance or longer than a race he's entered in, I become interested. Trainer Lemburg moves this thoroughbred to a lower level to face a lower class field. Look for a sharp race in this race. Trainer, Lemburg, has been deliberate with this gelding off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. TOPOFTHEMOUNTAIN - Ness brings him back again. I advocate you stick with this hot gelding. This jockey and trainer's equines have been producing a beneficial return on investment. Just look at his recent speed fig, 68. That one fits well in this bunch. Have to believe this pace horse has a nice chance on this tight track. A quick move out of the gate, and this one gets position.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 DION (ML=5/2), #6 MY LADY J (ML=6/1), #7 DRAMA COACH (ML=8/1),

DION - When scrutinizing today's Equibase class figure, he will have to earn a much better fig than in the last race to compete in this dirt sprint. MY LADY J - Improbable for this participant to make an impact with no recent good showings in a sprint affair. DRAMA COACH - I'd like to see more conducive recent outings with morning line of 8/1. Should have at least hit the board in the last couple months in a sprint race to be worth the risk at nominal odds in a sprint.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - FAMILY CODE - On today's track this gelding should do very well, given his past achievements on grass.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #3 FAMILY CODE on the nose if you can get odds of 8/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	3 with 4 with [1,2,7] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-06-2020, 08:38 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fonner Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 4.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $3700 Class Rating: 75

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2020. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 DION 5/2
# 3 FAMILY CODE 5/1
# 5 DANCE EVEN 12/1

I've got to go with DION. Displays the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 71 Equibase speed fig which is one of the most respectable in this group of horses in this race. Has ran well in dirt sprint races. Had one of the strongest Equibase Speed Figures of this field in his last race. FAMILY CODE - His 80 average has this gelding with among the most favorable speed figs for this race. In this field, this horse is ranked high in earnings per start in dirt sprint races. DANCE EVEN - Jones is trying to score with this entrant by bringing him back so quickly. Meeting a much less demanding bunch than last time out.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-06-2020, 01:17 PM

Paul Leiner

Horse Picks 5/6

Wed May 06, 2020 6:24 am
Both horses came in third yesterday and we did not have a winning day. Got three from Tampa Bay Downs today. Stay safe and goodluck.

Race 1
#3 Donnie Brasco $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 3-4-6

Race 5
#5 Stormy D $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 5-4-1

Race 7
#6 Dynaform $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 6-9-5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-06-2020, 01:17 PM

Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks
1.	NSA(The Legend)	HORSES – Australia A Race 2: #1 to WIN
2.	Gameday Network	HORSES – Fonner Park Race 7: #1 to WIN
3.	VegasSI.com	HORSES – Fonner Park Race 1: #2 to WIN
4.	Vegas Line Crushers	HORSES – Australia A Race 6: #6 to WIN
5.	Sports Action 365	HORSES – Fonner Park Race 8: #1 to WIN
6.	Point Spread Report	HORSES – Australia B Race 6: #5 to WIN
7.	Lou Panelli	HORSES – Fonner Park Race 3: #7 to WIN
8.	Gerry “Big Cat” Andino	HORSES – Australia B Race 5: #1 to WIN
9.	VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club	HORSES – Will Rogers Downs Race 6: #1 to WIN
10.	William E. Stockton	HORSES – Australia A Race 1: #9 to WIN
11.	Vincent Pioli	HORSES – Will Rogers Downs Race 7: #1 to WIN
12.	Steve “Scoop” Kendall	HORSES – Will Rogers Downs Race 2: #7 to WIN
13.	SCORE	HORSES – Australia A Race 3: #1 to WIN
14.	East Coast Line Movers	HORSES – Will Rogers Downs Race 3: #3 to WIN
15.	Tony Campone	HORSES – Australia B Race 3: #5 to WIN
16.	Chicago Sports Group	HORSES – Will Rogers Downs Race 10: #2 to WIN
17.	Hollywood Sportsline	HORSES – Australia B Race 7: #3 to WIN
18.	VIP Action	HORSES – Australia A Race 5: #11 to WIN
19.	South Beach Sports	HORSES – Will Rogers Downs Race 5: #5 to WIN
20.	Las Vegas Sports Commission	HORSES – Australia C Race 3: #7 to WIN
21.	NY Players Club	HORSES – Australia A Race 4: #6 to WIN
22.	Fred Callahan	HORSES – Australia C Race 6: #8 to WIN
23.	Las Vegas Private CEO Club	HORSES – Australia C Race 7: #4 to WIN
24.	Michigan Sports	HORSES – Australia B Race 2: #4 to WIN
25.	National Consensus Report	HORSES – Australia C Race 3: #6 to WIN

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-06-2020, 02:51 PM

Jeff Siegel's Tampa Bay Downs Wagering Strategies - 5/6/20

May 6, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Tampa Bay Downs
Wednesday, May 6, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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RACE 1: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Prison Padre; 4-Temple Mount; 6-Dig In

Forecast: A little will go a very long way in the Wednesday opener, a two-turn restricted (nw-2) $8,000 claimer that should be treated with extreme caution. Prison Padre returned off a 16-month vacation to finish a respectable fourth vs. similar last month and has right to produce a forward move from a good inside draw that should guarantee a ground-saving trip. His overall form – like the rest of these – borders on awful but at least he’s hit the board in three of four career starts over the Tampa Bay Downs main track and hails from a capable outfit, so at 4-1 on the morning line he’s as good as any. Dig In, a solid runner-up at this level two races back but nowhere with a wide trip vs. $10,000 foes on grass last time out, should snap back in this company and generally gets at least a piece of it. Temple Mount switches to A. Gallardo and stretches out after a series of modest sprint races. Against this sluggish group he’s likely to be in the first flight throughout – maybe even in front – so at 6-1 on the morning line he’s worth including as well.
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RACE 2: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: C
Use: 2-Just Shoot Already; 4-Happy Guy; 7-Wowza Man

Forecast: Another weak race, this one for maiden $10,000 older horses at seven furlongs. Just Shoot Already has burned money as the favorite in three of his last four starts so he’s clearly not one to trust but he could easily get loose on the lead against this group and maybe get brave in the process. He’s seems the likely top choice but without offering any value at 2-1 on the morning line. Happy Guy, second in the same race Just Shoot Already just finished eighth in, deserves attention based on that effort and should appreciate today’s extra half-furlong. His jockey is 1-for-66 this year, so take that into consideration. Wowza Man returns to a sprint and drops to his lowest level ever. He hasn’t gotten close in three previous main track outings but all three were contested over wet tracks so maybe on dry land he’ll improve. The barn wins races, so there’s that.
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RACE 3: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Analyzeyourvision; 2-Lastfortinofamily

Forecast: The main contention is drawn inside in this maiden $16,000 nine furlong turf affair. Analyzeyourvision is progressing with experience, lands the good rail and should be on or near the lead throughout. He makes a negative jockey switch but W. Garcia has won some races for this barn so we’ll accept it. In a race that projects to be slow early, the K. O’Connell-trained gelding should have every chance to step forward again in his third start off a layoff and just his fifth overall. Lastfortinofamily has numbers that make him reasonably competitive and should draft into a comfortable second flight, stalking position. However, his jockey is 1-for-41 at the meeting.
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RACE 4: Post 2:30 ET. Grade: B+
Single: Hopeful Growth

Forecast: Hopeful Growth should be a fairly short price in this first-level allowance seven furlong sprint for 3-year-old fillies. A winner of her debut last summer at Monmouth Park but then stopped on, the daughter of Tapiture finished a strong runner-up in her comeback in March at Gulfstream Park while four clear of the rest and vans north for easy pickings while picking up top jockey A. Gallardo. She’s not a standout on speed figures but has far more room for improvement then the others and seems certain to produce a forward move, so at 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, she’s a logical short price rolling exotic single
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RACE 5: Post 3:00 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Peaceful Feeling; 5-Stormy D; 7-Fashion’s Star; 8-Flighty Almighty

Forecast: Here’s a challenging entry-level allowance turf miler for fillies and mares that includes two European imports form top barns making their U. S debuts. We’ll use both as part of a spread in our rolling exotics, but top billing goes to the come-backing Peaceful Feeling, away for almost a year but with form that is good enough to win assuming she returns as well as she left. The daughter of War Front has been working well enough at Keeneland to be fit and ready for new trainer I. Correas, and from the rail she has the option of inheriting the role as the controlling speed or drafting into an equally ideal ground-saving stalking position. She’s won off a layoff in the past and is a solid fit on speed figures. Stormy D, never off the board in five career outings over the local lawn and a two-time winner in restricted claiming company, shortens considerably in trip and projects to be well off the pace during the early stages and then make her presence felt in the final furlong. She’s three-for-five in her career at this distance and should fire a big shot after a five week freshening. Fashion’s Star, a daughter of See the Stars, won her debut as a two-year-old in England in pleasing fashion but then was gone for six months and returned in a salty affair at Ascot last May and was never a factor. This time she’s coming back off a year layoff but for a barn that has been sensational with these Payson Park shippers, having won seven of 16 this meeting with four others hitting the board. The work tab for Shug is okay and this first-time Lasix user picks up A. Gallardo. Flighty Almighty another vanning up from Payson Park, has just moderate English form and her only career win was accomplished on the all-weather. She’s from the C. Clement barn and is another getting Lasix for the first time, so will use her somewhere on the ticket.
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RACE 6: Post 3:30 ET. Grade: C+
Single: 5-American River

Forecast: This restricted (nw-3) $8,000 middle distance main track claimer is inscrutable. Six of the eleven entrants exit the same race, with Circle Away, who was 28-1, finishing the best of the lot when second. We’ll toss them all out and take a stab (and that’s all it is) with the Gulfstream Park shipper, American River, a Venezuelan-bred gelding with numbers that fit and stretching out to two-turns for the first time since being imported from South America a couple of years back. His form looks bleak but at least he’s been facing better company and hails from a capable outfit, so at 8-1 on the morning line, he’s at least modestly intriguing.
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RACE 7: Post 4:00 ET. Grade: B
Use: 6-Dynaform; 7-Violator

Forecast: Dynaform just won a similar $20,000 claimer over this course and distance in late March and today picks up top rider A. Gallardo, so if he can turn in two alike there should be no reason why the M. Stidham-trained gelding can’t score right back. A winner of three of six while employing a good stalking style, he’s from a 28% barn that runs them where they belong. We’ll also include in our rolling exotics at 8-1 on the morning line Violator, badly overmatched vs. allowance foes last time out but a respectable fourth behind Dynaform two runs back. He’s most likely to settle into a good stalking position in a race that won’t be fast early and then have his chance from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 8: Post 4:30 ET. Grade: B
Use: 8-U S Army Corps; 9-Big Dreaming

Forecast: U S Army Corps missed by a head as the 8/5 favorite in a similar maiden affair over this course and distance last month and earned a big figure in the process, so not much more should be needed to earn his diploma at what likely will be a very short price. The son of War Front was making his first start since November, and Shug’s second-off-layoff runners usually produce a forward move, so this colt will be hard to beat. Big Dreaming, a colt by Declaration of War from Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Dreaming of Anna, finally makes it to the post and represents a reasonable threat to the favorite based on pedigree, connections, and a work tab that indicates decent ability, at the very least. He was entered and scratched here April 18 in an off-the-turf affair and four days later turned in a bullet gate work, so he’s clearly okay and more than ready to run. Earlier this year, the homebred 3-year-old turned in a series of sharp drills at Fair Grounds, so we’re really interested to see if he can give the favorite some competition, and we suspect he can. Both should be used in rolling exotic play.
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Service Plays Wednesday 5/6/20

Service Plays Wednesday 5/6/20

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