Service Plays Wednesday 5/13/20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-13-2020, 06:50 AM

FujitaPunter

Baseball Taiwan CPBL 2020
Fubon Guardians - Chinatrust Brothers
Over 15

Baseball South Korea KBO 2020
Lotte Giants - Doosan Bears
Lotte Giants +1.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-13-2020, 06:54 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #1

#8 Game Day Drama	Stretch out sprinter has solid dirt form, faces a weak crew where the two favorites are turf runners, and should be the controlling speed too; come and catch the pick.
#1 Happy Wanderer	ML favorite has some solid turf form but now, after 21 starts, tries the dirt for the first time, which is odd, and say you have to view him with a grain of salt; second-best.
#5 Completely Bonkers	The other sharp hoss will get bet hard for potent connections, and would be no surprise, but his two fast dirt runs weren't much, and he'll be an underlay tool tread lightly.
Race Summary	There's little doubt the 1 and 5 are the best horses here, but there's also little doubt their form on the dirt is a complete unknown, which is not the case with the pick, who also owns a race flow edge too, so play him in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk5 as well, since he'll offer fair value, and may get brave on the stretch.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #3

#5 Stack Shack	Stalker tried to get to the turf but it was washed off, yet she ran a fine 3rd in what was her first start at two turns, and now she's on the grass, for a sharp Granitz barn, will be a price, and should trip out too; upset special.
#6 Imaginary Friend	Class dropper did well to draw outside of her main speed rival, and the reduced level today will certainly help too, but she's lot ground late in all four starts, which isn't a ringing endorsement, at underlaid odds too; second-best.
#1 Little Miss Broadway	The inside speed got to the turf last time and was a much-improved 2nd, missing by just a head, but she did give up a 2-length late lead, and the 12-1 is long gone too, plus the 6 won't give her a free pass; underneath, if at all.
Race Summary	The price, race flow, and maybe even surface change could all work for the 5, who looked like a new horse with the added ground and turn last time, and with just three starts she has plenty of upside too, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since the two favorites will dominate the betting, which means a win will add plenty of value to both sequences.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #7

#4 Sundrenched	Class dropper didn't run an inch on the dirt last time, which was no shock based on her other run earlier in here career, but her turf runs-against much better-are comfortably ahead of these, and she'll get a potential pace tussle that may zap her main rival too; too tough for these.
#9 Classy Lion	ML favorite is another who didn't fire on dirt last time, so she'll like getting back to the grass, and she freaked when beating the pick three-back, but that runs seems more the exception than the rule, as the one two-back was weak, and she'll be overbet too; not sold on her chances.
#5 Classy of Course	Logical contender has a big chance on paper and can clearly win in this off her recent turf form, should the pick not bring it, but there is speed to both sides of her, which means she may not be at her best in deep stretch if she gets nagged early and often; using underneath, if at all.
Race Summary	You won't get rich on the 4 but maybe they do send it in on the 9 and you get a better price than you should on the more consistent of the two, and the one that drew a lot better as well, so play her aggressively to win and place if the tote allows, while getting some guarantee value by keying her in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since the ML favorite will take plenty of play in both sequences too, which means a win by the pick might play a bit larger than her mutuel price might suggest.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-13-2020, 06:55 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Will Rogers Downs - Race #2

#12 Polarcents	The two-back run wasn't all bad, and if she's able to get back to something like that, she's probably in the mix at a square price.
#9 Lady Fatma	Looks ready to roll at first asking with some solid Keeneland works to her credit. Doesn't meet a whole lot here in the debut.
#1 Hallies Dream	Would probably be the top choice if she hadn't drawn the fence, as her early speed coupled with the rail draw might lead to a tricky trip. Not out of it.
Race Summary	Polarcents gets the call off a dull run with better last time out, and this group might be a bit more to her liking.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #5

#9 Lawton	Loved his last when motoring past late at nearly 7/2, and he should draft into another really nice spot from this high draw.
#7 Minister of Soul	Forward player will just need to hold form in order to be a player with these after a really good effort last out. That said, the guy who beat him that day was no match for Lawton last out.
#6 Town Champ	Can he hold his form off the claim away from Asmussen? That's the only real question for this guy who brings a series of really sharp efforts into this.
Race Summary	Lawton just handled a pretty good group with ease, and if he's able to repeat that kind of effort, he can get the best of Minister of Soul.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #8

#4 Lil Footnotes	Slight edge in a very tough race, but she can bounce back off the flat run last time out and should get a good tracking trip.
#2 Shesomajestic	Faded badly when last seen, and she has been away a couple months since then, so I wouldn't want too short a number to see if she's getting back to some of her best work from 2019.
#5 Girls a Bullet	Finisher has been a bit short when failing to seriously threaten a winner in recent tries, but she chased a tough customer last out and seems in the mix with something similar.
Race Summary	Lil Footnotes looks the part if she's able to get past a dull run last out. The price should be right, and her two-back run keeps her in the mix here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-13-2020, 06:55 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Fonner Park - Race #1

#1 Picadilly Roadster	Improved to 3rd last out, draws the rails again and can make a late run vs. these.
#2 Como Se Llama	Prompted fast fractions and held 3rd last out; has a good chance to set the pace and looks like a gate-to-wire threat.
#6 Williston Dude	Took the lead and was caught in the final strides last out; a similar effort will make him troublesome here.
Race Summary	Picadilly Roadster can get a ground-saving trip just off the pace and can finish the best in this group.

Fonner Park - Race #5

#8 Ryrysweetie	Was 3rd in her last two and gets a decent pace to target; has been with good company and can make a late run.
#1 Chance of Frost	Won her last two of 2019 and the Martinez-Martinez combo is 6 of their last 12.
#5 Innocent Storm	Was 2nd in her last four and has two wins and eight seconds in her last 10; fits with these.
Race Summary	Ryrysweetie will track a good pace and Arrieta should have her move well in the final quarter.

Fonner Park - Race #9

#4 Moonfield	Goes after her 3rd straight win and can adjust to the pace; Olesiak is perfect in two tries aboard this one.
#6 Charmin Dixie	Makes her 1st local start after winning two of her last three at Delta; does well at the mile distance.
#7 Fianna Hills	Does well when she gets on the front end and has a good chance to set the pace; won three of the last four times she tried the mile distance, once at Fonner and twice at Prairie Meadows.
Race Summary	Moonfield is in top form and go with the flow, whether she's on the front end or from just off the pace.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-13-2020, 08:43 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers Downs

Will Rogers Downs - Race 5	Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta (.50) / Superfecta (.10) / Daily Double Pick 3 (.50) (Races 5-6-7)
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 106 • Purse: $27,500 • Post: 3:15P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR OKLAHOMA STATE BRED ALLOWANCE SINCE NOVEMBER 13, 2019 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * TOWN CHAMP: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. MINISTER OF SOUL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. D' RAPPER: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. LAWTON: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
6	TOWN CHAMP	3/1	9/2
7	MINISTER OF SOUL	2/1	5/1
1	D' RAPPER	8/1	6/1
9	LAWTON	4/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	TOWN CHAMP	6	3/1	Front-runner	104	106	95.4	102.0	97.5
7	MINISTER OF SOUL	7	2/1	Front-runner	105	103	86.6	102.2	97.2
2	ARCADIA CALLS	2	12/1	Front-runner	96	86	71.2	86.2	74.7
3	NOMO RON	3	8/1	Front-runner	100	97	64.2	84.0	71.0
1	D' RAPPER	1	8/1	Stalker	105	97	85.6	91.0	85.5
5	MAN U	5	12/1	Stalker	92	82	68.0	83.4	69.4
9	LAWTON	9	4/1	Stalker	103	91	57.0	91.6	86.1
8	CABIN JOHN	8	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	98	96	84.4	82.5	70.5
4	SUPERIOR'S BOY	4	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	86	91	55.2	74.2	56.7

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-13-2020, 08:43 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fonner Park

Fonner Park - Race 5	Dinsdale Automotive Pick 5 - $5,000 Minimum Gross Pool Guarantee - .50 Pick 5 Jackpot (races 5-9) / $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta .50 Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / MANDATORY PICK 5 JACKP
Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 64 • Purse: $5,400 • Post: 5:48P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 13, 2019. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Trailer. CHANCE OF FROST is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * INNOCENT STORM: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. RYRYSWEET IE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CHANCE OF FROST: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Ho rse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. LA INDIA: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
5	INNOCENT STORM	2/1	5/1
8	RYRYSWEETIE	7/2	7/1
1	CHANCE OF FROST	9/2	7/1
4	LA INDIA	15/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	A J HART	2	6/1	Front-runner	63	56	73.8	50.0	39.5
4	LA INDIA	4	15/1	Front-runner	70	68	72.5	52.4	42.9
6	OUR ANABELLE	6	8/1	Front-runner	56	59	64.0	50.6	38.6
5	INNOCENT STORM	5	2/1	Stalker	68	63	57.2	66.2	63.7
7	HOLY MARIE	7	8/1	Stalker	58	56	46.6	55.6	46.6
8	RYRYSWEETIE	8	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	72	60	33.6	61.2	56.7
1	CHANCE OF FROST	1	9/2	Trailer	72	67	38.4	61.6	50.6
3	CALIFORNIASUMMER	3	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	64	71	40.8	50.0	37.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-13-2020, 08:44 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Tampa Bay Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10300 Class Rating: 80

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 13 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 CREDIT CYCLE 9/2
# 1 WILL RUNAWAY 6/1
# 4 WELD 8/1

I have to consider CREDIT CYCLE here. Raymond has shown excellent profits (+32 ROI ) at this distance/surface. He must be carefully examined given the strong speed numbers. Has been constatntly running well recently. WILL RUNAWAY - Has run admirably when racing a dirt sprint race. WELD - Has competitive early lick and should fare quite well versus this field.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-13-2020, 08:44 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Fonner Park - Race #8 - Post: 7:09pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $4,500 Class Rating: 57

Rating:

#8 KURIOUS KENNEDY (ML=6/1)
#4 S C ANGEL (ML=5/2)
#3 SCOTIA QUEEN (ML=5/1)

KURIOUS KENNEDY - When Wood and Mitchell unite on horses the return on investment has been wonderful at +132. This mare notched a strong speed fig of 57 in her last clash. That rating should be strong enough to win this time. S C ANGEL - This thoroughbred coming off a nice race in the last month or so is a contender in my opinion. Starting from the inside, this mount should have a distinct edge. Her early-pace setting style should serve her well in this short race of 6 furlongs. The 57 last race speed rating looks sound in black and white. SCOTIA QUEEN - Like the way this filly's finish positions keep getting better. That's a sure sign of improving form. This filly is in good physical condition, having run a nice race on Apr 28th, finishing first. That was a strong win last time out. In my opinion has a good chance to repeat today. You have to always check out this type of speedball with an inside post in a sprint on a bullring.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 EBONY NIGHTS (ML=4/1), #2 ALICIA'SVALENTINE (ML=8/1), #7 ONE LITTLE INDY (ML=8/1),

EBONY NIGHTS - You always think this horse has a shot to cross the finish line in first, but she falters most every time. Don't feel this steed will make an impact in today's event. That last rating was most unsatisfactory when compared with today's class figure. ALICIA'SVALENTINE - No favorable outcomes for this pony in a sprint event over the last 60 days tells me that this filly is in a tough circumstance This filly won last time, but probably won't flaunt it today versus tougher competition. Finished first in her most recent effort with a substandard speed fig. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this bunch. ONE LITTLE INDY - Hasn't been coming close at all recently.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - KURIOUS KENNEDY - The odds should be right to wager on this magnificent animal. There are some 'hidden' pluses in the last race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#8 KURIOUS KENNEDY is the play if we get odds of 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,8] Box [3,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[3,4,8] with [3,4,8] with [1,3,4,8,10] with [1,3,4,8,10] Total Cost: $36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-13-2020, 08:44 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $23760 Class Rating: 70

FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 12 JUSTINS OMEN 10/1
# 8 NOVEMBER MIKE 7/2
# 6 DRAMACIDE 3/1

JUSTINS OMEN looks to be a formidable contender and could score at a price in here. Ran a solid last race. NOVEMBER MIKE - Has garnered solid Speed Figures in dirt sprint races in the past. The Equibase Speed Figure of 68 from his most recent affair looks competitive in here. DRAMACIDE - Could beat this group of animals given the 79 speed figure recorded in his last outing. Displays the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 54 speed rating which is one of the top in this group of horses in this race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-13-2020, 08:45 AM

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs

05/13/20, TAM, Race 8, 4.30 ET
05/13/20,TAM,8,7F [Dirt] 1:20:04 CLAIMING. Purse $10,300. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since April 13 Allowed 3 lbs. Claiming Price $8,000 (Races where entered for $6,250 or less not considered in allowances) (Registered Florida Breds Preferred).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.00	9	Bueno Bueno Bueno	7/2	Allen. Jr. R D	Wilkes Ian R.	SE	59.46	1.77/$1
098.76	11	Zechariah	10-1	Wales G	Sweezey J. Kent		59.46	1.77/$1
098.64	7	Fortlite	8-1	Suarez A	Stidham Michael	JT	59.46	1.77/$1
098.53	1	Will Runaway	6-1	Villa-Gomez H	Raines Lindsey Marie		36.93	1.06/$1
098.30	4	Weld	8-1	Hernandez H	Wilson Tony	L	59.46	1.77/$1
097.81	10	Rosas Way	5-1	Spieth S	Minieri Joseph		59.46	1.77/$1
097.70	12	Big Yes	8-1	Santos A	Woodard Walter H.		59.46	1.77/$1
097.12	14	I'll Make U Famous	15-1	Almeida M	Heinen Miles H.		59.46	1.77/$1
096.74	8	Credit Cycle	9/2	Marin A A	Raymond Robert A.	F	59.46	1.77/$1
096.37	2	Striking Heir	10-1	Mejia T B	Hinsley David H.		59.46	1.77/$1
095.39	13	Water Patrol	6-1	Garcia W A	Padilla Tim P.	C	59.46	1.77/$1
095.15	3	Debdurite	30-1	Herrera J R	Machado Antonio		59.46	1.77/$1
092.53	6	Forecaster	30-1	Alencar W	Ferraro M. Anthony	W	59.46	1.77/$1
091.77	5	Attack Zone	20-1	Allen M	Fennessy John		59.46	1.77/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 33.96, ROI 0.86/$1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-13-2020, 01:11 PM

Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks
1.	NSA(The Legend)	HORSES – Fonner Park Race 2: #8 to WIN
2.	Gameday Network	HORSES – Australia A Race 7: #2 to WIN
3.	VegasSI.com	HORSES – Will Rogers Downs Race 1: #3 to WIN
4.	Vegas Line Crushers	HORSES – Fonner Park Race 6: #3 to WIN
5.	Sports Action 365	HORSES – Australia A Race 8: #5 to WIN
6.	Point Spread Report	HORSES – Fonner Park Race 8: #9 to WIN
7.	Lou Panelli	HORSES – Australia A Race 1: #6 to WIN
8.	Gerry “Big Cat” Andino	HORSES – Fonner Park Race 5: #5 to WIN
9.	VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club	HORSES – Will Rogers Downs Race 10: #6 to WIN
10.	William E. Stockton	HORSES – Australia B Race 7: #6 to WIN
11.	Vincent Pioli	HORSES – Australia B Race 3: #7 to WIN
12.	Steve “Scoop” Kendall	HORSES – Australia A Race 2: #9 to WIN
13.	SCORE	HORSES – Australia B Race 8: #10 to WIN
14.	East Coast Line Movers	HORSES – Australia C Race 1: #6 to WIN
15.	Tony Campone	HORSES – Australia B Race 9: #11 to WIN
16.	Chicago Sports Group	HORSES – Australia C Race 7: #3 to WIN
17.	Hollywood Sportsline	HORSES – Will Rogers Downs Race 7: #3 to WIN
18.	VIP Action	HORSES – Kawasaki Race 7: #3 to WIN
19.	South Beach Sports	HORSES – Kawasaki Race 5: #11 to WIN
20.	Las Vegas Sports Commission	HORSES – Australia C Race 3: #6 to WIN
21.	NY Players Club	HORSES – Australia C Race 5: #13 to WIN
22.	Fred Callahan	HORSES – Australia C Race 6: #8 to WIN
23.	Las Vegas Private CEO Club	HORSES – Australia C Race 2: #5 to WIN
24.	Michigan Sports	HORSES – Will Rogers Downs Race 9: #4 to WIN
25.	National Consensus Report	HORSES – Fonner Park Race 4: #7 to WIN

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-13-2020, 01:12 PM

Jeff Siegel's Tampa Bay Downs Wagering Strategies - 5/13/20

May 13, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Tampa Bay Downs
Wednesday, May 13, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Happy Wanderer; 5-Completely Bonkers; 6-Tiz Samurai

Forecast: The Wednesday Tampa Bay Downs opener is a challenging two-turn restricted $5,000 claimer for older horses. Completely Bonkers is unproven over fast conventional dirt, having just started just five times in a 41-race career on the main track, three of which came on a wet surface. He drops to his lowest level ever for a high-percentage outfit and has several recent numbers that are stronger than par for this class, so if he has at least one good one left the veteran son of Giacomo should be hard to deny at 3-1 on the morning line. Of course, in a cheap claimer like this, current conditions is everything, so what happened last time out or a few races back may not mean much. Happy Wanderer is facing his easiest foes ever but has never raced on a dirt surface. The son of War Chant lands the rail, has good tactical speed for a solid barn and should be forwardly placed and free of trouble every step of the way. Tiz Samurai is more than good enough off his best race but his recent form has been a bit below standard. From the strong D. Bennett barn, the veteran gelding is yet another racing cheaper than he ever has and seems likely to try gate to wire tactics. First or second in six of 12 career outings over the local main track and switching to top jockey D. Centeno, the son of First Samurai may be slowly rounding back to shape in what is his fourth start off a layoff. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with a slight preference on top to Completely Bonkers.
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RACE 2: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: B
Use: 8-Faster Chi Chi; 10-R Kiss Em Goodbye

Forecast: R Kiss Em Goodbye is listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite and seems likely to go lower in this restricted (nw-3) $12,500 claiming dash for older fillies and mares. The Gulfstream Park shipper just won a $16,000 (nw-2) off-the-turf sprint with a speed figure that far exceeds par for this level and from the high percentage G. Baxter barn the daughter of Adios Charlie can dictate the race flow from her favorable outsider under leading rider A. Gallardo. As a saver or a back-up, you may want to consider Feisty Chi Chi is a class-dropper with the always-dangerous route-to-sprint angle and a deep-closing threat if a faster-than-expected early pace materializes.
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RACE 3: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Imaginary Friend; 10-Nagini
Forecast: We’ll try to get by using just two in this maiden $16,000 claimer over a mile on grass for fillies and mares. Imaginary Frien returns to her claim level and looks capable of producing the last run if given the patient ride she appears to prefer. Her third place performance two runs back in a maiden $32,000 affair over this course and distance charts best against this softer crew. Nagini is drawn a bit farther out than is ideal but the daughter of Candy Ride, a closing fourth as the favorite in a similar affair last month, probably has a bit of improvement in her. With some help up front she could be the most effective of the closing types. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with the edge on top going to Imaginary Friend.
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RACE 4: Post 2:30 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Branco Maria; 2-Onward; 3-Falkirk

Forecast: The main contention in this maiden special weight sprint for 3-year-olds is drawn inside, with top billing going to the Gulfstream Park shipperOnward. The son of Street Sense, exiting a series of much stronger races but a beaten favorite last time out, should greatly enjoy this softer assignment while adding blinkers for the first time. The C. Clement-trained invaders have been powerful of late and this colt’s natural early speed should make him tough to beat. Branco Maria is a first-timer from the M. Stidham barn with a healthy series of works to his credit, so despite his disadvantageous rail draw we’ll consider him a “must use” in the rolling exotics. A $385,000 Saratoga yearling, the son of Candy Ride may need more ground before showing his best, but could be live at this trip, nonetheless. Falkirkdidn’t get any play in his debut in a hot race at Churchill Downs in his only outing last summer but ran okay, lagging early but then finding his best stride late to finish a respectable fifth. He returns for I. Wilkes (strong stats with come-backers) with some nice drills at Lambholm South training center and with top rider A. Gallardo taking the call the son of Cairo Prince could be a much improved type this time around.
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RACE 5: Post 3:00 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Beachtreasuregirl; 6-Premier Justice; 10-Langue Liee

Forecast: We’ll spread the fifth race, a mile grass affair for restricted (nw-2) $10,000 claiming fillies and mares. Use as many as you can afford to. Beachtreasuregirl seems as good as any, though her low percentage connections hardly inspire confidence. The daughter of Treasure Beach is guaranteed a good ground-saving trip from her favorable rail post and though winless in five tries over the local lawn shows some decent local races that chart very well at this level. Premier Justice hails from a good barn and probably is a bit more dangerous than her morning line of 10-1 suggests. This will be her first career start on grass, and while her pedigree doesn’t suggest massive improvement is likely with the switch in surface she figures to be a late factor with her best effort. The rider doesn’t win many, though. Langue Liee is stuck way outside but is a contender after gamely beating maidens sprinting on dirt 13 days ago. She’ll probably be part of the pace throughout and could stick around for at least a share if the race-flow turns up in her favor. Use her somewhere as a back-up.
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RACE 6: Post 3:30 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Exclusive Donald; 5-Esor

Forecast: This maiden-claiming $10,000 abbreviated sprint offers is light in contention with Esor the obvious top pick. With steadily improving form, the son of Rattlesnake Bridge has dangerous early speed and rising speed figures, and at this shortened trip he may be able to shake loose early and keep on going. Exclusive Donald is a first-timer with good connections and has trained well enough to warrant a look in a very soft field. Trainer T. Hamm is solid with debut runners, so this Exclusive Quality gelding should be competitive, at the very least .
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RACE 7: Post 4:00 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Sundrenched; 5-Classy of Course

Forecast: Classy of Course, first or second in four of seven career starts over the Tampa Bay Downs turf course, has recent speed figures that fit nicely in this restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claiming miler for fillies and mares. She is most effective from a stalking position but can win on the front end as well, so D. Centeno can assess the early pace flow and adjust his strategy if necessary. Sundrenched may be the most dangerous of the deep closers and will appreciate any help she can get up front. Both of her career victories have been accomplished over the local lawn and after being reunited with “win rider” A. Suarez the daughter of Get Stormy looks very much like a major player.
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RACE 8: Post 4:30 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 8-Credit Cycle; 9-Bueno Bueno Bueno

Forecast: We’ll double the eighth race, a seven furlong restricted (nw-3) $8,000 seller for older horses. Bueno Bueno Bueno is most effective as a late-running sprinter and should enjoy this extended sprint trip. The I. Wilkes-trained gelding just beat a lesser field over a sloppy track after shipping up from Gulfstream Park and in fact both of his victories were accomplished on a wet surface, but he does have good form on fast going as well plus numbers that can win in this league. We’ll also include, at least as a saver, Credit Cycle, in the frame in his last four starts and with a right to fire another big shot despite making a negative jockey switch for a low percentage barn.
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RACE 9: Post 5:00 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Uncork the Bottle; 4-Matty’s Express; 10-Valiant Virtue

Forecast: The finale is an intriguing starter optional claimer over a mile on grass that has several possibilities. Uncork the Bottle was stakes-placed on grass at Gulfstream Park two races back, and a repeat of that race today should be good enough. A distant fifth over the all-weather at Turfway Park in the Rushaway Stakes in mid-March, the son of Colonel John returns following a nice recent three-furlong blowout and picks up D. E. Centeno, so there should be no excuses as the morning line 2-1 favorite. Matty’s Express seeks his third straight score while moving into tougher company but has rising speed figures and three prior scores over the local awn. Like our top pick, this improved gelding does his best work with patient handling. Valiant Virtue will have to overcome the extreme outside draw, but after finishing a close second to Matty’s Express while battling on the pace throughout the First Dude gelding catches a field with a bit less heat and could be tough on the front end if he can clear on his own.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-13-2020, 01:13 PM

Paul Leiner

Horse Picks 5/13

Wed May 13, 2020 11:49 am
We got Ricky Simon going in UFC tonight but here's two races I capped.

Will Rogers Race 4
#6 Dramacide $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 6-5-8

Tampa Bay Race 9
#9 Caramelito $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 9-10-4

Service Plays Wednesday 5/13/20

Service Plays Wednesday 5/13/20

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